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Interview With Dr. Shireen Hunter of CSIS

Aired May 30, 2003 - 13:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: As we continue our special coverage on Iran, we want to take a closer look at the country itself, its economy, its people, and its politics.
Joining me from Washington, Shireen Hunter. She is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies where she is the director of the Islam program. Professor Hunter, good to have you with us.

SHIREEN HUNTER, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Thank you. Pleasure to be with you.

O'BRIEN: Quick geography lesson here. We will take a look at our satellite imagery here, comparing Iraq and Iran. Iraq on a lot of people's minds, obviously, still. Let's take a look and show you, first of all, a quick sense of the size of the two countries, and how they compare to each other.

Iraq is nearly four times the size -- excuse me, Iran is nearly four times the size of Iraq, as I lay out the borders here, but what's more important, I suppose, pointing out to our viewers, is when the borders of Iraq were drawn, and how, historically, Iran -- Iran's borders have more of an ancient route. Explain that to us.

HUNTER: Well, first of all, we have to realize that Iran is a country that has existed, more or less, within the current borders -- of course, it had (ph) more extensive borders, for almost 3,000 years.

Admittedly, there have been periods of interruption, largely because of the foreign conquests, but this is a country that has been known with this name, within these confines, for a long, long time.

O'BRIEN: All right. Now, take a look -- we're going to bring you down on the coast line here, about 1,500 miles of coastline. This compares to about 25 miles of coastline for Iraq. Obviously, has good assets to have a strong import/export economy. Is that an important part of what makes Iran tick?

HUNTER: Well, absolutely. I think that one of the importance of Iran, not only just economically, but also strategically, is the fact that it does, indeed, dominate the northern shore of the Persian Gulf, and more importantly -- or equally importantly, it also is close to the Caspian Sea, and Persian Gulf is extremely important for Iran. It is really -- in fact, it's the lung through which the country breathes, economically and socially.

O'BRIEN: All right. Now, we are sort of looking at the area near and around Tehran. Total population is 67 million, 89 percent of them are Shi'a Muslims, 10 percent Sunnis. And as we take a look at, sort of, street life in Tehran, what is life like there now for people on the street?

HUNTER: Well, I think that life right now, obviously economically, is still difficult. I think that people are struggling. There is unemployment and so on. But socially, to some extent, in the past several years, the pressures have somewhat eased. I think that, you know, there are restaurants, places to go. There is music, there is cinema.

Young people have slightly more freedom to be together. But by and large, there is still a feeling that there's not much opportunity, and people don't feel that they have a very good future ahead of them economically and otherwise.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's go from Tehran to the area where there are strong oil and, primarily, natural gas reserves. This is the area near the Iraq border, and we're taking you right here over Shat al-Arab waterway, which was the source of conflict between Iran and Iraq during that long and bloody war.

The natural gas reserves are very strong, oil is significant. And, yet, there is this 14 percent unemployment, which you referred to. Is that a lingering aftereffect of that bloody war with Iraq as we go along this Iran/Iraq border?

HUNTER: Well, certainly, war -- the effect of war, is important, but I don't think that you can blame everything on the war. A lot of it has to do with the political, sort of, deadlock that exists in Iran, and that has meant that Iran has not been able, either to create the kind of proper atmosphere internally for investment, or to resolve its problems internationally, which will encourage more investment.

So I think that it is really, to some extent, politics and political deadlock that is also responsible for the slow pace of economic development.

O'BRIEN: All right. And as we talk about the government and the political structure, there is kind of this dual nature. On the one hand, you have the mullahs, the ayatollahs, and then you have the political leaders. That really hasn't been reconciled since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, has it?

HUNTER: Not really. I think that what we really see, as you said yourself, you have, on the one side, a republican system. You have a president, you have parliament, you have elections. And in that sense, some measure of -- obviously -- a popular democracy exists.

But, this is extremely circumscribed by the fact that the leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, particularly, and the whole -- different groups or clerical leaders within different institutions have essentially veto power over many decisions of the parliament, and this creates a tremendous tension, contradiction, and leads to, sort of, deadlock that I was referring to, and this deadlock is having adverse effect, both for Iran's internal development, and for its foreign relations.

O'BRIEN: Shireen Hunter, thanks for a very condensed version of Iran 101. We appreciate your insights...

HUNTER: My pleasure.

O'BRIEN: ... and we're all just beginning to learn a little more and refresh ourselves in all this. We appreciate it. Thanks for your time.

HUNTER: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired May 30, 2003 - 13:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: As we continue our special coverage on Iran, we want to take a closer look at the country itself, its economy, its people, and its politics.
Joining me from Washington, Shireen Hunter. She is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies where she is the director of the Islam program. Professor Hunter, good to have you with us.

SHIREEN HUNTER, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Thank you. Pleasure to be with you.

O'BRIEN: Quick geography lesson here. We will take a look at our satellite imagery here, comparing Iraq and Iran. Iraq on a lot of people's minds, obviously, still. Let's take a look and show you, first of all, a quick sense of the size of the two countries, and how they compare to each other.

Iraq is nearly four times the size -- excuse me, Iran is nearly four times the size of Iraq, as I lay out the borders here, but what's more important, I suppose, pointing out to our viewers, is when the borders of Iraq were drawn, and how, historically, Iran -- Iran's borders have more of an ancient route. Explain that to us.

HUNTER: Well, first of all, we have to realize that Iran is a country that has existed, more or less, within the current borders -- of course, it had (ph) more extensive borders, for almost 3,000 years.

Admittedly, there have been periods of interruption, largely because of the foreign conquests, but this is a country that has been known with this name, within these confines, for a long, long time.

O'BRIEN: All right. Now, take a look -- we're going to bring you down on the coast line here, about 1,500 miles of coastline. This compares to about 25 miles of coastline for Iraq. Obviously, has good assets to have a strong import/export economy. Is that an important part of what makes Iran tick?

HUNTER: Well, absolutely. I think that one of the importance of Iran, not only just economically, but also strategically, is the fact that it does, indeed, dominate the northern shore of the Persian Gulf, and more importantly -- or equally importantly, it also is close to the Caspian Sea, and Persian Gulf is extremely important for Iran. It is really -- in fact, it's the lung through which the country breathes, economically and socially.

O'BRIEN: All right. Now, we are sort of looking at the area near and around Tehran. Total population is 67 million, 89 percent of them are Shi'a Muslims, 10 percent Sunnis. And as we take a look at, sort of, street life in Tehran, what is life like there now for people on the street?

HUNTER: Well, I think that life right now, obviously economically, is still difficult. I think that people are struggling. There is unemployment and so on. But socially, to some extent, in the past several years, the pressures have somewhat eased. I think that, you know, there are restaurants, places to go. There is music, there is cinema.

Young people have slightly more freedom to be together. But by and large, there is still a feeling that there's not much opportunity, and people don't feel that they have a very good future ahead of them economically and otherwise.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's go from Tehran to the area where there are strong oil and, primarily, natural gas reserves. This is the area near the Iraq border, and we're taking you right here over Shat al-Arab waterway, which was the source of conflict between Iran and Iraq during that long and bloody war.

The natural gas reserves are very strong, oil is significant. And, yet, there is this 14 percent unemployment, which you referred to. Is that a lingering aftereffect of that bloody war with Iraq as we go along this Iran/Iraq border?

HUNTER: Well, certainly, war -- the effect of war, is important, but I don't think that you can blame everything on the war. A lot of it has to do with the political, sort of, deadlock that exists in Iran, and that has meant that Iran has not been able, either to create the kind of proper atmosphere internally for investment, or to resolve its problems internationally, which will encourage more investment.

So I think that it is really, to some extent, politics and political deadlock that is also responsible for the slow pace of economic development.

O'BRIEN: All right. And as we talk about the government and the political structure, there is kind of this dual nature. On the one hand, you have the mullahs, the ayatollahs, and then you have the political leaders. That really hasn't been reconciled since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, has it?

HUNTER: Not really. I think that what we really see, as you said yourself, you have, on the one side, a republican system. You have a president, you have parliament, you have elections. And in that sense, some measure of -- obviously -- a popular democracy exists.

But, this is extremely circumscribed by the fact that the leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, particularly, and the whole -- different groups or clerical leaders within different institutions have essentially veto power over many decisions of the parliament, and this creates a tremendous tension, contradiction, and leads to, sort of, deadlock that I was referring to, and this deadlock is having adverse effect, both for Iran's internal development, and for its foreign relations.

O'BRIEN: Shireen Hunter, thanks for a very condensed version of Iran 101. We appreciate your insights...

HUNTER: My pleasure.

O'BRIEN: ... and we're all just beginning to learn a little more and refresh ourselves in all this. We appreciate it. Thanks for your time.

HUNTER: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com