Return to Transcripts main page

Live From...

Interview With Gene Sperling, Jim Miller

Aired June 06, 2003 - 15:09   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: We have news on the economic front. The nation's unemployment rate is at a nine-year high. The Labor Department says 17,000 jobs were cut in May, pushing the jobless rate to 6.1 percent. But some analysts see a silver lining in the gloomy numbers, predicting the economic growth will speed up sharply in the months ahead.
Joining us now with two unique views on this and whether the jobless figures are going to hurt President Bush, former Reagan budget director, Jim Miller, and former Clinton economic adviser, Gene Sperling. Jim Miller, to you first.

Not only is the unemployment number 6.1 percent, the highest number since 1994. You have got 8.8 million people out of work. The number of people unemployed for six months or longer is around two million. And the average time, we're told, that is needed by the unemployed to find a job has jumped to almost 20 weeks. That is the longest time it's been since 1984.

How can this not be bad news for President Bush?

JIM MILLER, FORMER REAGAN BUDGET DIRECTOR: Well, I think it is bad news. You would search these figures in vain, I think, to find a silver lining. But let's keep in mind that we do have on the horizon the effects of the tax cut.

We have the resurgence in the stock market, the recovery of equity values. We also have, interestingly, some rather rapid increases in productivity, and that output-per-man hour. That's one reason -- that's what explains the fact that the economy really is growing, even though unemployment rates are rising.

Total employment has remained fairly constant. We lost 17,000 jobs, but that's a small number compared to the total. Employment has remained fairly constant, it's just that we have more people entering the job market all the time.

WOODRUFF: So, Gene Sperling, why shouldn't we, as Jim Miller suggests, see the glass as half full rather than half empty here?

GENE SPERLING, FORMER CLINTON ECONOMIC ADVISER: I think it depends whether you have a job or don't and whether you're worried about losing yours or not. I think that there is no question we have a very weak labor market. And Judy, you gave a lot of the good arguments. It is not just the people who are unemployed. There are other categories, too. People who are working half- time who want to be working full-time. Discouraged workers. So I think that the job numbers are going to be very difficult, and a difficult issue for President Bush for some time to come.

But it may not necessarily get worse from here. I think that even if there is some growth, the fact that there's so much capacity in the economy suggests they're going to really going to need a strong bump, 3.5 to 4 percent, to really get companies back to actually hiring full-time workers again.

WOODRUFF: Jim Miller, do you agree it's going to take that kind of a bump, a boost, to get the country hiring?

MILLER: I find myself in agreement with Mr. Sperling. I think we do need -- we do need to think in terms of moving to a much higher levels of economic growth, with productivity increases. You need higher levels of economic growth year by year in order to absorb this increase of population of people who want to have jobs.

I think Gene is right, it's unlikely it's going to deteriorate. I think it will get better over time. How rapidly it gets better, only God knows, I guess. But I think the chances are that it will get better than better rather than worse.

WOODRUFF: Well, Gene Sperling, you know, there are Democrats, of course, trying to blame this on President Bush and his administration. But the fact is, the table was set for a lot of this when President Clinton was still in office. And frankly, 9/11 has been an enormous down figure -- I mean, a down factor for this administration. It's completely out of their control.

SPERLING: I think part of that's right and part of that's wrong. I don't think you can blame everything bad that's happening in the economy on President Bush or probably anyone else. You're right, there are things like 9/11. We had the longest expansion in history. There was a bubble that finally burst.

But I do think that he is vulnerable on how he has responded to this. President Clinton also inherited kind of difficult economic times. And people will make a judgment. Do they think he acted in the best way to jump start job growth? And I think that his vulnerability is that he focused too much on long-term tax cuts that hurt the deficit and not enough on getting quick bipartisan consensus to jump start jobs, help the states get through these difficult times.

WOODRUFF: Very quick last word, Jim Miller. How many jobs are going to be created by these tax cuts?

MILLER: Well, I think in the millions in the long term. We have had, as Gene was saying, some problems, but I think things will get better.

WOODRUFF: All right, Jim Miller, Gene Sperling, thank you both. Good to see you. We appreciate you being with us.

MILLER: Thank you.

SPERLING: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired June 6, 2003 - 15:09   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: We have news on the economic front. The nation's unemployment rate is at a nine-year high. The Labor Department says 17,000 jobs were cut in May, pushing the jobless rate to 6.1 percent. But some analysts see a silver lining in the gloomy numbers, predicting the economic growth will speed up sharply in the months ahead.
Joining us now with two unique views on this and whether the jobless figures are going to hurt President Bush, former Reagan budget director, Jim Miller, and former Clinton economic adviser, Gene Sperling. Jim Miller, to you first.

Not only is the unemployment number 6.1 percent, the highest number since 1994. You have got 8.8 million people out of work. The number of people unemployed for six months or longer is around two million. And the average time, we're told, that is needed by the unemployed to find a job has jumped to almost 20 weeks. That is the longest time it's been since 1984.

How can this not be bad news for President Bush?

JIM MILLER, FORMER REAGAN BUDGET DIRECTOR: Well, I think it is bad news. You would search these figures in vain, I think, to find a silver lining. But let's keep in mind that we do have on the horizon the effects of the tax cut.

We have the resurgence in the stock market, the recovery of equity values. We also have, interestingly, some rather rapid increases in productivity, and that output-per-man hour. That's one reason -- that's what explains the fact that the economy really is growing, even though unemployment rates are rising.

Total employment has remained fairly constant. We lost 17,000 jobs, but that's a small number compared to the total. Employment has remained fairly constant, it's just that we have more people entering the job market all the time.

WOODRUFF: So, Gene Sperling, why shouldn't we, as Jim Miller suggests, see the glass as half full rather than half empty here?

GENE SPERLING, FORMER CLINTON ECONOMIC ADVISER: I think it depends whether you have a job or don't and whether you're worried about losing yours or not. I think that there is no question we have a very weak labor market. And Judy, you gave a lot of the good arguments. It is not just the people who are unemployed. There are other categories, too. People who are working half- time who want to be working full-time. Discouraged workers. So I think that the job numbers are going to be very difficult, and a difficult issue for President Bush for some time to come.

But it may not necessarily get worse from here. I think that even if there is some growth, the fact that there's so much capacity in the economy suggests they're going to really going to need a strong bump, 3.5 to 4 percent, to really get companies back to actually hiring full-time workers again.

WOODRUFF: Jim Miller, do you agree it's going to take that kind of a bump, a boost, to get the country hiring?

MILLER: I find myself in agreement with Mr. Sperling. I think we do need -- we do need to think in terms of moving to a much higher levels of economic growth, with productivity increases. You need higher levels of economic growth year by year in order to absorb this increase of population of people who want to have jobs.

I think Gene is right, it's unlikely it's going to deteriorate. I think it will get better over time. How rapidly it gets better, only God knows, I guess. But I think the chances are that it will get better than better rather than worse.

WOODRUFF: Well, Gene Sperling, you know, there are Democrats, of course, trying to blame this on President Bush and his administration. But the fact is, the table was set for a lot of this when President Clinton was still in office. And frankly, 9/11 has been an enormous down figure -- I mean, a down factor for this administration. It's completely out of their control.

SPERLING: I think part of that's right and part of that's wrong. I don't think you can blame everything bad that's happening in the economy on President Bush or probably anyone else. You're right, there are things like 9/11. We had the longest expansion in history. There was a bubble that finally burst.

But I do think that he is vulnerable on how he has responded to this. President Clinton also inherited kind of difficult economic times. And people will make a judgment. Do they think he acted in the best way to jump start job growth? And I think that his vulnerability is that he focused too much on long-term tax cuts that hurt the deficit and not enough on getting quick bipartisan consensus to jump start jobs, help the states get through these difficult times.

WOODRUFF: Very quick last word, Jim Miller. How many jobs are going to be created by these tax cuts?

MILLER: Well, I think in the millions in the long term. We have had, as Gene was saying, some problems, but I think things will get better.

WOODRUFF: All right, Jim Miller, Gene Sperling, thank you both. Good to see you. We appreciate you being with us.

MILLER: Thank you.

SPERLING: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com