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Frank Newport Analyzes Latest Polls Regarding Hillary Clinton

Aired June 10, 2003 - 15:22   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: A new claim to fame for Hillary Clinton. Barnes & Noble says it sold a first-day record for a nonfiction book, and that is 40,000 copies of the Clinton memoir in stores and online yesterday when the book was released. At the very least, Americans clearly are curious about the former first lady, but would they vote for her?
Well, let's check in with Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, Frank Newport. Frank, all right, first of all, Hillary Clinton says she has no intention of running for president, she says. But if she did, what do the polls show? Could she win?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, interesting words she used there, Judy. "Intention," Judy, who knows what that means. But it's too early to tell whether she could win. But we do know a couple things, which I think are quite fascinating when we look at her favorables.

This is a real key, I think, to what a politician is like in the eyes of the American public. First of all, her husband Bill Clinton, enjoyed a significant gender gap. A lot of Democrats do; that helps them get elected.

She doesn't. Her favorables between men and women, 41 and 44 percent, you can see are almost identical. So she's not enjoying, despite being one of the most prominent women in the world right now, the typical gender gap that a Democrat would.

Politically speaking, she does very well among Democrats, Judy, as you know. Seventy-one percent favorable opinion, only 18 percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion. That is not unexpected for a well known Democrat, but to win, of course, she's going to have to hold the base and cool this up probably some, if she was to run at some point in the future -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: And we have to check later on how she's doing among independents. All right, Frank, in this book and in these interviews she's done, the senator says she was shocked when her husband finally confessed to her that he had had a relationship with Monica Lewinsky. What do the polls show? Are Americans buying that?

NEWPORT: Well, interesting question. What we did is to go back in our poll vault and look at what Americans were buying at the time she says she was dumbfounded and gasping for breath and all that in August of 1998. Let's go back. In January of 1998, first revelations came out. Over half of Americans immediately said they thought Bill Clinton probably did have sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky. And by April of that year it was two-thirds of the public. I guess the bottom line here is, Judy, if she was shocked in August, the American public certainly wasn't.

WOODRUFF: All right. And, finally, Frank, back to Hillary Clinton's political future. Any lingering resistance out there to voting for a woman for president?

NEWPORT: Surprisingly, there is. Believe it or not, Judy, this is one of the first questions Gallup started asking the American public back in the depression in 1937. Would you vote for a woman for president? Only 33 percent of Americans said yes way back then. Franklin Roosevelt was in the White House.

It's certainly gone up since that point in time. But we just finished asking it again. It's 87 percent now. That's that number on the right-hand side. So, Judy, it's certainly a super majority, but there's still 13 percent of Americans who say, no, they wouldn't vote for an otherwise well qualified woman for president.

WOODRUFF: Very interesting. All right. Frank Newport, thanks very much. Always good to have your insights. And we'll talk to you again next week.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





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Aired June 10, 2003 - 15:22   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: A new claim to fame for Hillary Clinton. Barnes & Noble says it sold a first-day record for a nonfiction book, and that is 40,000 copies of the Clinton memoir in stores and online yesterday when the book was released. At the very least, Americans clearly are curious about the former first lady, but would they vote for her?
Well, let's check in with Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, Frank Newport. Frank, all right, first of all, Hillary Clinton says she has no intention of running for president, she says. But if she did, what do the polls show? Could she win?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, interesting words she used there, Judy. "Intention," Judy, who knows what that means. But it's too early to tell whether she could win. But we do know a couple things, which I think are quite fascinating when we look at her favorables.

This is a real key, I think, to what a politician is like in the eyes of the American public. First of all, her husband Bill Clinton, enjoyed a significant gender gap. A lot of Democrats do; that helps them get elected.

She doesn't. Her favorables between men and women, 41 and 44 percent, you can see are almost identical. So she's not enjoying, despite being one of the most prominent women in the world right now, the typical gender gap that a Democrat would.

Politically speaking, she does very well among Democrats, Judy, as you know. Seventy-one percent favorable opinion, only 18 percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion. That is not unexpected for a well known Democrat, but to win, of course, she's going to have to hold the base and cool this up probably some, if she was to run at some point in the future -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: And we have to check later on how she's doing among independents. All right, Frank, in this book and in these interviews she's done, the senator says she was shocked when her husband finally confessed to her that he had had a relationship with Monica Lewinsky. What do the polls show? Are Americans buying that?

NEWPORT: Well, interesting question. What we did is to go back in our poll vault and look at what Americans were buying at the time she says she was dumbfounded and gasping for breath and all that in August of 1998. Let's go back. In January of 1998, first revelations came out. Over half of Americans immediately said they thought Bill Clinton probably did have sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky. And by April of that year it was two-thirds of the public. I guess the bottom line here is, Judy, if she was shocked in August, the American public certainly wasn't.

WOODRUFF: All right. And, finally, Frank, back to Hillary Clinton's political future. Any lingering resistance out there to voting for a woman for president?

NEWPORT: Surprisingly, there is. Believe it or not, Judy, this is one of the first questions Gallup started asking the American public back in the depression in 1937. Would you vote for a woman for president? Only 33 percent of Americans said yes way back then. Franklin Roosevelt was in the White House.

It's certainly gone up since that point in time. But we just finished asking it again. It's 87 percent now. That's that number on the right-hand side. So, Judy, it's certainly a super majority, but there's still 13 percent of Americans who say, no, they wouldn't vote for an otherwise well qualified woman for president.

WOODRUFF: Very interesting. All right. Frank Newport, thanks very much. Always good to have your insights. And we'll talk to you again next week.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





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