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Intelligence Says Saddam is Alive

Aired June 20, 2003 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: The question that has been asked for months since the bombs fell on Baghdad, is Saddam Hussein dead or alive?
Now U.S. intelligence officials tell CNN that their agencies have reached an assessment that Saddam is alive and still inside Iraq. Of course, they don't know that for sure. But they have information from a variety of sources suggesting the ousted Iraq leader survived, including recently intercepted communications among Saddam loyalists.

The White House says today that it remains not sure about Saddam's status and whereabouts. A line echoed by the former U.S. administrator in Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. GEN. JAY GARNER, OFFICE OF RECONSTRUCTION & HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: I've talked to Iraqis that told me he was alive, and Iraqis that told me he is dead. Those that said he was alive generally outnumber those that said he is dead. I don't know whether he's alive or dead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Retired General Jay Garner gave a closed-door briefing today to members of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Let's talk about the hunt for Saddam Hussein now with CNN Middle East analyst, Ken Pollack. Ken, based on what you're hearing, do you think it's likely he's still alive and in Iraq?

KEN POLLACK, CNN MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Well, honestly, Judy, sitting here at the Sabin Center of the Brookings Institution, I don't have any more information than anybody does out in the field. Certainly I don't have better information than Jay Garner.

And the truth is, I don't know, and I think that, like Jay Garner, I have heard people who have spelled out why they think he's alive, and they have all kinds of good reasons. I have people spell out why they think he's dead, and they have all kinds of good reasons. I just don't think that we know at this point in time.

What I can say I think the U.S. government has to proceed from the assumption that he is alive.

WOODRUFF: So this new information that has led intelligence officials now to say they have this quote, unquote "assessment" that he's alive, does that make any difference to you?

POLLACK: Well, it certainly is interesting. Because what it suggests is that they are picking up intelligence, whether it's from human sources or from technical means, that are suggesting to them that Saddam Hussein is still alive. That being the case, I think that you have to, perhaps, weight it a little more toward the likelihood that he is alive.

WOODRUFF: If he is alive, Ken Pollack, how does that affect the ongoing mission in Iraq to try to rebuild a government there, to try to rebuild a country, for that matter, when there may be Saddam loyalists around holding out hope that he's still alive?

POLLACK: It doesn't help, as you've just explained. There is a clear sense among Iraqis that if Saddam Hussein is out there, he might come back.

For the average Iraqi, Saddam Hussein has become the boogeyman. He is the man who, quite literally, comes in the middle of the night and takes you or your children away, or at least he did. And as long as Saddam Hussein is alive and well and living somewhere in Iraq, Iraqis are always going to have that fear in the back of their heads.

By the same token, we shouldn't turn Saddam into a much greater problem than he actually is. I think the simple fact of the matter is that if the United States had the reconstruction of Iraq on a firmer keel, if things were going better in terms of the reconstruction of Iraq, probably far fewer Iraqis would be as worried about Saddam Hussein coming back to power.

By the same token, if Saddam Hussein is actually alive, his ability to prevent the reconstruction from going ahead is probably somewhat minimal.

Really, the question of whether or not Iraq becomes a stable, prosperous country is in our hands. Saddam can interfere a little bit. It would obviously great to get rid of him, get him out of circulation, but he's not going to be the one that determines all that.

WOODRUFF: Well, another question on all this, if he is alive, what does that say about all those intelligence reports after that bomb hit the bunker, on the first night of the war, the belief that he was in that bunker in Baghdad? What does that say about the intelligence?

POLLACK: Well, if he is alive, it suggests that maybe the intelligence wasn't quite as good as it was thought.

But, again, I think there's some mysteries there that will need to be explored. It is possible that he was in the house and survived the attack. It's also possible that he wasn't in the house. And that, in fact, it was erroneous information altogether.

This is the problem with intelligence. And in particular, it's the problem with intelligence in a police state like Saddam Hussein's Iraq, where over the last 30 years, we have gotten far more bad evidence than good.

WOODRUFF: All right. Ken Pollack, CNN analyst, with the Brookings Institution. By the way, Ken has an op ed today in "The New York Times" about the possibility of weapons of mass destruction having been and still being in Iraq.

Ken, thanks very much.

POLLACK: Thank you, Judy.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired June 20, 2003 - 15:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: The question that has been asked for months since the bombs fell on Baghdad, is Saddam Hussein dead or alive?
Now U.S. intelligence officials tell CNN that their agencies have reached an assessment that Saddam is alive and still inside Iraq. Of course, they don't know that for sure. But they have information from a variety of sources suggesting the ousted Iraq leader survived, including recently intercepted communications among Saddam loyalists.

The White House says today that it remains not sure about Saddam's status and whereabouts. A line echoed by the former U.S. administrator in Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. GEN. JAY GARNER, OFFICE OF RECONSTRUCTION & HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: I've talked to Iraqis that told me he was alive, and Iraqis that told me he is dead. Those that said he was alive generally outnumber those that said he is dead. I don't know whether he's alive or dead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Retired General Jay Garner gave a closed-door briefing today to members of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Let's talk about the hunt for Saddam Hussein now with CNN Middle East analyst, Ken Pollack. Ken, based on what you're hearing, do you think it's likely he's still alive and in Iraq?

KEN POLLACK, CNN MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Well, honestly, Judy, sitting here at the Sabin Center of the Brookings Institution, I don't have any more information than anybody does out in the field. Certainly I don't have better information than Jay Garner.

And the truth is, I don't know, and I think that, like Jay Garner, I have heard people who have spelled out why they think he's alive, and they have all kinds of good reasons. I have people spell out why they think he's dead, and they have all kinds of good reasons. I just don't think that we know at this point in time.

What I can say I think the U.S. government has to proceed from the assumption that he is alive.

WOODRUFF: So this new information that has led intelligence officials now to say they have this quote, unquote "assessment" that he's alive, does that make any difference to you?

POLLACK: Well, it certainly is interesting. Because what it suggests is that they are picking up intelligence, whether it's from human sources or from technical means, that are suggesting to them that Saddam Hussein is still alive. That being the case, I think that you have to, perhaps, weight it a little more toward the likelihood that he is alive.

WOODRUFF: If he is alive, Ken Pollack, how does that affect the ongoing mission in Iraq to try to rebuild a government there, to try to rebuild a country, for that matter, when there may be Saddam loyalists around holding out hope that he's still alive?

POLLACK: It doesn't help, as you've just explained. There is a clear sense among Iraqis that if Saddam Hussein is out there, he might come back.

For the average Iraqi, Saddam Hussein has become the boogeyman. He is the man who, quite literally, comes in the middle of the night and takes you or your children away, or at least he did. And as long as Saddam Hussein is alive and well and living somewhere in Iraq, Iraqis are always going to have that fear in the back of their heads.

By the same token, we shouldn't turn Saddam into a much greater problem than he actually is. I think the simple fact of the matter is that if the United States had the reconstruction of Iraq on a firmer keel, if things were going better in terms of the reconstruction of Iraq, probably far fewer Iraqis would be as worried about Saddam Hussein coming back to power.

By the same token, if Saddam Hussein is actually alive, his ability to prevent the reconstruction from going ahead is probably somewhat minimal.

Really, the question of whether or not Iraq becomes a stable, prosperous country is in our hands. Saddam can interfere a little bit. It would obviously great to get rid of him, get him out of circulation, but he's not going to be the one that determines all that.

WOODRUFF: Well, another question on all this, if he is alive, what does that say about all those intelligence reports after that bomb hit the bunker, on the first night of the war, the belief that he was in that bunker in Baghdad? What does that say about the intelligence?

POLLACK: Well, if he is alive, it suggests that maybe the intelligence wasn't quite as good as it was thought.

But, again, I think there's some mysteries there that will need to be explored. It is possible that he was in the house and survived the attack. It's also possible that he wasn't in the house. And that, in fact, it was erroneous information altogether.

This is the problem with intelligence. And in particular, it's the problem with intelligence in a police state like Saddam Hussein's Iraq, where over the last 30 years, we have gotten far more bad evidence than good.

WOODRUFF: All right. Ken Pollack, CNN analyst, with the Brookings Institution. By the way, Ken has an op ed today in "The New York Times" about the possibility of weapons of mass destruction having been and still being in Iraq.

Ken, thanks very much.

POLLACK: Thank you, Judy.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com