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Analysis With General David Grange

Aired July 07, 2003 - 13:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. Marines have hit the ground today in Liberia, just a dozen or so. But more could be on the way to that troubled African nation very soon.
Joining us now to try to explain what's happening and some of the scenarios which might play out, from Chicago, as always , or nearly always, CNN military analyst General David Grange. Good to see you, General Grange.

GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Same. Good seeing you.

O'BRIEN: First of all, how important is Charles Taylor's departure, do you think? If you were in the midst of planning for this would you say that's crucial that Taylor be gone before a marine force of any size lands in Monrovia?

GRANGE: Well there's two ways to look at it. One, I think it's advantageous to have him gone because any loyalists with him won't get drug into a fight. However, where is all his comrades? Where are they when he leaves?

The other thing is there's going to be a vacuum once he leaves unless because unless our government knows, we haven't heard who's replacing him. And do there may be a window of opportunity for another bad person like Doe, like Taylor to take over. And so you want to have forces ready in case something like that happens.

O'BRIEN: So the timing is so crucial, it's almost impossible to predict the best time to be there, is it?

GRANGE: Well, you cannot accurately predict but can you assume for the worst case. And so they would have, I'm sure, forces ready to go. Even if they don't have boots on the ground in Liberia, I can assure you that our armed forces are standing by somewhere in case things go bad.

O'BRIEN: All right, let me ask you this: as a military person, is this one you would pass on?

GRANGE: No, we have to do the operation just because of the historical ties, what the president said about Taylor has to leave, the humanitarian crisis -- you don't want something similar to Zaire. And there's some kind of an obligation there with that part of the world that's been a little bit neglected. So I think we have to do it. O'BRIEN: All right, what comes to mind frequently is what happened a decade ago in Somalia, in Mogadishu. Is that an analogy we should be looking toward, is that or apples and oranges?

GRANGE: A little bit apples and oranges. That was a separate fight within a bigger mission in Somalia. And the big problem in Somalia was the lack of resolve at the governmental level to follow through wit the mission. I think the resolve will be there this time if a commitment's made to put troops on the ground.

O'BRIEN: All right, but, we're talking here, we're told by Barbara Starr's reporting today out of Pentagon, a force of about 2,000. Given the scope and the size of the problem in Liberia, is that enough? Is the U.S. going in with the proper resolve as you put it?

GRANGE: Well, with the other augmentation of coalition forces that I understand is going in, I believe you had reported around 5,000, that's probably a better number. Because once you do these humanitarian assistance operations you're spread in quite a few places around the countryside as well as the city.

And people get swallowed up very quickly and then you have security of lines of communication moving foods, foodstuff, medical supplies, et cetera on road networks. And so there's a security issue there.

And then, of course, you don't know what's going to happen with some of these rebel factions. They may just go astray. So you're pushing it with just that 2,000.

O'BRIEN: Yes. What do you think the military in general, we're talking about a massive military force that the U.S. has all throughout the world and to be talking about 2,000 troops and saying it might be spread too thin might seem a little bit silly. But, nevertheless, a lot of this has to do with focus at the Pentagon and in Washington and whether they can keep their eye on the ball so to speak.

GRANGE: Well they have combatant commanders in these different theaters throughout the world, as you know, just like Central Command, Southern Command, European Command, et cetera to cover these things and plan for Department of Defense, and do most of that work.

However, with the commitment of the armed forces today, I think they are stretched a bit thin. And you can't just use a solid number and say we have, OK 540,000 in the United States Army, subtract 280,000. You have a couple hundred thousand left. Why can't do you this?

But you see a good third of those total numbers are the institutional base that never leave the United States of America or they're fixed in Korea on the DMZ or some other -- and schools and education. And so the numbers you have to be careful with, I think they're stretched a bit right now.

O'BRIEN: All right, we'll leave it at that thought. Thank you very much, General David Grange. Appreciate your insights as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired July 7, 2003 - 13:32   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. Marines have hit the ground today in Liberia, just a dozen or so. But more could be on the way to that troubled African nation very soon.
Joining us now to try to explain what's happening and some of the scenarios which might play out, from Chicago, as always , or nearly always, CNN military analyst General David Grange. Good to see you, General Grange.

GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Same. Good seeing you.

O'BRIEN: First of all, how important is Charles Taylor's departure, do you think? If you were in the midst of planning for this would you say that's crucial that Taylor be gone before a marine force of any size lands in Monrovia?

GRANGE: Well there's two ways to look at it. One, I think it's advantageous to have him gone because any loyalists with him won't get drug into a fight. However, where is all his comrades? Where are they when he leaves?

The other thing is there's going to be a vacuum once he leaves unless because unless our government knows, we haven't heard who's replacing him. And do there may be a window of opportunity for another bad person like Doe, like Taylor to take over. And so you want to have forces ready in case something like that happens.

O'BRIEN: So the timing is so crucial, it's almost impossible to predict the best time to be there, is it?

GRANGE: Well, you cannot accurately predict but can you assume for the worst case. And so they would have, I'm sure, forces ready to go. Even if they don't have boots on the ground in Liberia, I can assure you that our armed forces are standing by somewhere in case things go bad.

O'BRIEN: All right, let me ask you this: as a military person, is this one you would pass on?

GRANGE: No, we have to do the operation just because of the historical ties, what the president said about Taylor has to leave, the humanitarian crisis -- you don't want something similar to Zaire. And there's some kind of an obligation there with that part of the world that's been a little bit neglected. So I think we have to do it. O'BRIEN: All right, what comes to mind frequently is what happened a decade ago in Somalia, in Mogadishu. Is that an analogy we should be looking toward, is that or apples and oranges?

GRANGE: A little bit apples and oranges. That was a separate fight within a bigger mission in Somalia. And the big problem in Somalia was the lack of resolve at the governmental level to follow through wit the mission. I think the resolve will be there this time if a commitment's made to put troops on the ground.

O'BRIEN: All right, but, we're talking here, we're told by Barbara Starr's reporting today out of Pentagon, a force of about 2,000. Given the scope and the size of the problem in Liberia, is that enough? Is the U.S. going in with the proper resolve as you put it?

GRANGE: Well, with the other augmentation of coalition forces that I understand is going in, I believe you had reported around 5,000, that's probably a better number. Because once you do these humanitarian assistance operations you're spread in quite a few places around the countryside as well as the city.

And people get swallowed up very quickly and then you have security of lines of communication moving foods, foodstuff, medical supplies, et cetera on road networks. And so there's a security issue there.

And then, of course, you don't know what's going to happen with some of these rebel factions. They may just go astray. So you're pushing it with just that 2,000.

O'BRIEN: Yes. What do you think the military in general, we're talking about a massive military force that the U.S. has all throughout the world and to be talking about 2,000 troops and saying it might be spread too thin might seem a little bit silly. But, nevertheless, a lot of this has to do with focus at the Pentagon and in Washington and whether they can keep their eye on the ball so to speak.

GRANGE: Well they have combatant commanders in these different theaters throughout the world, as you know, just like Central Command, Southern Command, European Command, et cetera to cover these things and plan for Department of Defense, and do most of that work.

However, with the commitment of the armed forces today, I think they are stretched a bit thin. And you can't just use a solid number and say we have, OK 540,000 in the United States Army, subtract 280,000. You have a couple hundred thousand left. Why can't do you this?

But you see a good third of those total numbers are the institutional base that never leave the United States of America or they're fixed in Korea on the DMZ or some other -- and schools and education. And so the numbers you have to be careful with, I think they're stretched a bit right now.

O'BRIEN: All right, we'll leave it at that thought. Thank you very much, General David Grange. Appreciate your insights as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com