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New Saddam Tape a Sign to Iraqi People: I Will Return

Aired July 29, 2003 - 14:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Now with us from Washington, CNN analyst Ken Pollack. He's a former Iraq military analyst for the CIA. Ken, first your reaction to this tape.
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST Well, Kyra, I think that is a clear sign that Saddam is trying to send the message that even though his sons have been killed and even though it does seem like U.S. forces are making some real progress in the last week or so against Saddam's forces that Saddam is still out there and he's not out of the fight.

And I think he was probably trying to send two messages. First to his supporters that he is not dead and they should continue the fight. And that Uday and Qusay performed this heroic struggle for six hours against U.S. forces.

And secondly to the rest of the Iraqi people, a little reminder, he is not dead yet. He is still out there and he has every intention of coming back, so they shouldn't fully collaborate with the Americans either.

PHILLIPS: All right now, Ken, the military is many coming forward, the government's coming forward and saying that, indeed, soldiers are on the trail of Saddam Hussein. That he's leaving every couple of hours from place to place. Tell me as a former analyst for the CIA, how does a chase like this ensue?

POLLACK: Well, it looks like either previous to but certainly as a result of the raid on the house where Uday and Qusay were, the U.S. has been able to acquire additional information on exactly how Saddam is moving around.

Whether they have identifiers of personnel he's with and they are able to track those personnel or he's giving off some other kind of signal, some kind of electronic signal, if he's using radios to communicate and they are able to follow the radios, or it's simply a matter of more and more people coming forward to say, Hey, we saw Saddam yesterday. We saw him four hours ago. Clearly the U.S. has some new set of clues about how Saddam is operating. And that is allowing them to better get a feel from where he's going or where he's just been.

The key though is they have got to get information in time to get U.S. forces, whether they're air forces or ground to the spot while Saddam is still there. And because he's moving so quickly, that's still been very tough to do.

PHILLIPS: So, Ken, do you think there was some sort of communication system set up in that villa where Uday and Qusay were? And do you think there was communication taking place between Saddam and his sons?

POLLACK: That is possible. I certainly have no independent information of that, but I have nothing to rule it out, either. It does seem they were betrayed by the owner of the house. That's what all the stories are saying, but you can't rule out the possibility that in fact U.S. intelligence has found other ways of tracking Saddam.

They may be using phones which the U.S. is able to monitor. They may be using radios where or as suggested before it may just be that they have a bunch of vehicles that the U.S. can identify, a group of people that the U.S. knows about. But there is something that seems to be giving Saddam away and that the U.S. is able to track him on a near realtime basis.

PHILLIPS: So, if, indeed, this is happening he is being tracked on a realtime basis, do you believe definitely that Saddam Hussein will be captured soon?

POLLACK: I don't know about soon. The last part of your question is the kicker. Certainly it does seem that the U.S. is hot on his trail. And I think that there seems to be a pretty good likelihood that he will be caught soon.

But it's a big country. He is absolutely paranoid when it comes to his security. He has evaded the U.S. for the last several months. And he has avoided any number of would-be assassins in the past. So you can't be certain that he's going to be caught even this time. I do think eventually the U.S. will catch him but maybe not necessarily in the next few days.

PHILLIPS: Well I've got to ask you this: dead or alive?

POLLACK: My guess it's much more likely the U.S. will catch him dead. I don't think that Saddam wants to be taken alive. If he does find himself surrounded I think he, too, will try to go out in a blaze of glory. But you can't rule out that the U.S. might be able to surprise him when he is taking one of his cat naps. Anything's possible.

PHILLIPS: Ken Pollack, always great to get your insight. Thank you.

POLLACK: Thank you, Kyra.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired July 29, 2003 - 14:02   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Now with us from Washington, CNN analyst Ken Pollack. He's a former Iraq military analyst for the CIA. Ken, first your reaction to this tape.
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST Well, Kyra, I think that is a clear sign that Saddam is trying to send the message that even though his sons have been killed and even though it does seem like U.S. forces are making some real progress in the last week or so against Saddam's forces that Saddam is still out there and he's not out of the fight.

And I think he was probably trying to send two messages. First to his supporters that he is not dead and they should continue the fight. And that Uday and Qusay performed this heroic struggle for six hours against U.S. forces.

And secondly to the rest of the Iraqi people, a little reminder, he is not dead yet. He is still out there and he has every intention of coming back, so they shouldn't fully collaborate with the Americans either.

PHILLIPS: All right now, Ken, the military is many coming forward, the government's coming forward and saying that, indeed, soldiers are on the trail of Saddam Hussein. That he's leaving every couple of hours from place to place. Tell me as a former analyst for the CIA, how does a chase like this ensue?

POLLACK: Well, it looks like either previous to but certainly as a result of the raid on the house where Uday and Qusay were, the U.S. has been able to acquire additional information on exactly how Saddam is moving around.

Whether they have identifiers of personnel he's with and they are able to track those personnel or he's giving off some other kind of signal, some kind of electronic signal, if he's using radios to communicate and they are able to follow the radios, or it's simply a matter of more and more people coming forward to say, Hey, we saw Saddam yesterday. We saw him four hours ago. Clearly the U.S. has some new set of clues about how Saddam is operating. And that is allowing them to better get a feel from where he's going or where he's just been.

The key though is they have got to get information in time to get U.S. forces, whether they're air forces or ground to the spot while Saddam is still there. And because he's moving so quickly, that's still been very tough to do.

PHILLIPS: So, Ken, do you think there was some sort of communication system set up in that villa where Uday and Qusay were? And do you think there was communication taking place between Saddam and his sons?

POLLACK: That is possible. I certainly have no independent information of that, but I have nothing to rule it out, either. It does seem they were betrayed by the owner of the house. That's what all the stories are saying, but you can't rule out the possibility that in fact U.S. intelligence has found other ways of tracking Saddam.

They may be using phones which the U.S. is able to monitor. They may be using radios where or as suggested before it may just be that they have a bunch of vehicles that the U.S. can identify, a group of people that the U.S. knows about. But there is something that seems to be giving Saddam away and that the U.S. is able to track him on a near realtime basis.

PHILLIPS: So, if, indeed, this is happening he is being tracked on a realtime basis, do you believe definitely that Saddam Hussein will be captured soon?

POLLACK: I don't know about soon. The last part of your question is the kicker. Certainly it does seem that the U.S. is hot on his trail. And I think that there seems to be a pretty good likelihood that he will be caught soon.

But it's a big country. He is absolutely paranoid when it comes to his security. He has evaded the U.S. for the last several months. And he has avoided any number of would-be assassins in the past. So you can't be certain that he's going to be caught even this time. I do think eventually the U.S. will catch him but maybe not necessarily in the next few days.

PHILLIPS: Well I've got to ask you this: dead or alive?

POLLACK: My guess it's much more likely the U.S. will catch him dead. I don't think that Saddam wants to be taken alive. If he does find himself surrounded I think he, too, will try to go out in a blaze of glory. But you can't rule out that the U.S. might be able to surprise him when he is taking one of his cat naps. Anything's possible.

PHILLIPS: Ken Pollack, always great to get your insight. Thank you.

POLLACK: Thank you, Kyra.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com