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Is the Terminator's Lead Terminated?

Aired August 18, 2003 - 14:18   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A quick look now at the governor recall in California.
The ACLU, American Civil Liberties Union, wants the vote postponed until March. We can talk about it for months. No, actually so six counties can update their punchboard ballots.

Attorney Mark Rosenbaum proclaimed "democracy in California should not hang by a chad." Ring a bell there? Well, there's a court hearing on that today 4:30 eastern time.

Meantime Republicans aren't happy with Arnold Schwarzenegger's liberal leanings. Some Democrats are abandoning governor Gray Davis. And after the opening Arnold rush another candidate is starting to gaining steam.

With us is CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider to give us the latest update of as the recall turns.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it does sound like the soap opera, Miles.

But the latest polls look very bad for Governor Davis. The field poll came out last week and it looks like Davis might be doomed. The polls show -- this is the field poll of the candidates competing to replace Governor Davis and in that there's a big surprise. Arnold Schwarzenegger has lost his lead. The Terminator's lead may be terminated.

Cruz Bustamante, who is he? He's the lieutenant governor of California and the only serious Democrat on that ballot with only 130 people on it. He is in the lead because he's beginning to consolidate the Democratic vote with Arnold Schwarzenegger running second.

Why is Arnold Schwarzenegger running second? Well, he's a Republican and so is Tom McClintock at 9, Bill Simon at 8, Peter Ueberroth at 5. All of those candidates are credible candidates, Republican candidates with a statewide reputation, and they're splitting the vote, the Republican vote, with Arnold Schwarzenegger and allowing the Democrat to creep ahead.

So there's a lot of panic in the Republican ranks beginning to set in. And they're saying, "We've got to get some of these Republican candidates out of there." But nobody has the power to come in and say, "You go."

O'BRIEN: All right. So divided they potentially fall, I suppose, that's one way to look at this. Let me ask you a quick question before we get to this next poll number.

This whole issue of a delay. Time is really on Gray Davis's side, isn't it?

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Again, Governor Davis believes, and the Democrats believe, that if you stretch this out for as long as, God help us, six months, all the way to March, it will help Governor Davis, No. 1 because a lot of Californians will forget the budget crisis. They have a new budget in place.

No. 2, Davis will have time to mend fences. He's already doing that. He's going to every conceivable Democratic and liberal constituency and giving them what they want in order to shore up his base.

He's promised gay and lesbians that he would support civil unions. He's promised Hispanics that he would allow driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Things he -- something he originally opposed.

So he's trying to mend fences. And the more time he has, the more likelihood he can do that. Also, if it goes all the way to March, that's the day of the presidential primary and there's only a contest on the Democratic side. So maybe only Democrats will come out to vote, they hope.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk about this, how much fence mending Gray Davis might have to contend with here. Look at these numbers that we should have brought up first.

Why don't you tell us a little bit about the numbers and what they mean?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you can see, July 51 percent of California voters said they were ready to vote to fire Gray Davis. That's what a recall is. And this month as of last week that number had gone up to 58 percent, which is very bad for Davis indeed.

In fact, few Democrats I've heard have been talking about the fact that maybe Davis should just resign, hang it up, see the handwriting on the wall and turn the office over to Cruz Bustamante, his lieutenant governor.

But that would probably be seen as a patent political maneuver. The voters wouldn't like it, and I'm not sure Bustamante would be helped by that.

Sure, he would become the incumbent, but No. 1, the recall would still go on. Is that amazing or what? The state constitution says that they would still have a recall vote, even if the governor's already resigned. What would it be for? It would be to elect another governor to take up the remaining three years of Davis's unexpired term.

Also, of course, the fact that Bustamante would then be tied more closely to Davis and that's something he doesn't want to be.

O'BRIEN: Yes. He doesn't want to be Gerald Ford, I guess.

All right.

SCHNEIDER: Not at all.

O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider, as always, a pleasure. We appreciate your insights and stay tuned for more of as the recall turns -- Kyra.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Our Republican rival for governor has come out with some radio attack adds, accusing Arnold Schwarzenegger of being a liberal.

Bill Simon is also challenging Schwarzenegger to devise a plan to solve the state's economic crisis.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL SIMON, CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: That's good to hear about some of the stances that Arnold has. You know, for example, he's pro-abortion, I'm not. I'm pro-life.

But the bottom line again is this, we need plans to fix California. We need to hear about Mr. Schwarzenegger's ideas in a broad variety of areas. Lieutenant governor is correct. This election is not about personality, it's about plans. It's about people that care about California.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Simon lost to Governor Gray Davis in last year's election.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired August 18, 2003 - 14:18   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A quick look now at the governor recall in California.
The ACLU, American Civil Liberties Union, wants the vote postponed until March. We can talk about it for months. No, actually so six counties can update their punchboard ballots.

Attorney Mark Rosenbaum proclaimed "democracy in California should not hang by a chad." Ring a bell there? Well, there's a court hearing on that today 4:30 eastern time.

Meantime Republicans aren't happy with Arnold Schwarzenegger's liberal leanings. Some Democrats are abandoning governor Gray Davis. And after the opening Arnold rush another candidate is starting to gaining steam.

With us is CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider to give us the latest update of as the recall turns.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it does sound like the soap opera, Miles.

But the latest polls look very bad for Governor Davis. The field poll came out last week and it looks like Davis might be doomed. The polls show -- this is the field poll of the candidates competing to replace Governor Davis and in that there's a big surprise. Arnold Schwarzenegger has lost his lead. The Terminator's lead may be terminated.

Cruz Bustamante, who is he? He's the lieutenant governor of California and the only serious Democrat on that ballot with only 130 people on it. He is in the lead because he's beginning to consolidate the Democratic vote with Arnold Schwarzenegger running second.

Why is Arnold Schwarzenegger running second? Well, he's a Republican and so is Tom McClintock at 9, Bill Simon at 8, Peter Ueberroth at 5. All of those candidates are credible candidates, Republican candidates with a statewide reputation, and they're splitting the vote, the Republican vote, with Arnold Schwarzenegger and allowing the Democrat to creep ahead.

So there's a lot of panic in the Republican ranks beginning to set in. And they're saying, "We've got to get some of these Republican candidates out of there." But nobody has the power to come in and say, "You go."

O'BRIEN: All right. So divided they potentially fall, I suppose, that's one way to look at this. Let me ask you a quick question before we get to this next poll number.

This whole issue of a delay. Time is really on Gray Davis's side, isn't it?

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Again, Governor Davis believes, and the Democrats believe, that if you stretch this out for as long as, God help us, six months, all the way to March, it will help Governor Davis, No. 1 because a lot of Californians will forget the budget crisis. They have a new budget in place.

No. 2, Davis will have time to mend fences. He's already doing that. He's going to every conceivable Democratic and liberal constituency and giving them what they want in order to shore up his base.

He's promised gay and lesbians that he would support civil unions. He's promised Hispanics that he would allow driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Things he -- something he originally opposed.

So he's trying to mend fences. And the more time he has, the more likelihood he can do that. Also, if it goes all the way to March, that's the day of the presidential primary and there's only a contest on the Democratic side. So maybe only Democrats will come out to vote, they hope.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk about this, how much fence mending Gray Davis might have to contend with here. Look at these numbers that we should have brought up first.

Why don't you tell us a little bit about the numbers and what they mean?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you can see, July 51 percent of California voters said they were ready to vote to fire Gray Davis. That's what a recall is. And this month as of last week that number had gone up to 58 percent, which is very bad for Davis indeed.

In fact, few Democrats I've heard have been talking about the fact that maybe Davis should just resign, hang it up, see the handwriting on the wall and turn the office over to Cruz Bustamante, his lieutenant governor.

But that would probably be seen as a patent political maneuver. The voters wouldn't like it, and I'm not sure Bustamante would be helped by that.

Sure, he would become the incumbent, but No. 1, the recall would still go on. Is that amazing or what? The state constitution says that they would still have a recall vote, even if the governor's already resigned. What would it be for? It would be to elect another governor to take up the remaining three years of Davis's unexpired term.

Also, of course, the fact that Bustamante would then be tied more closely to Davis and that's something he doesn't want to be.

O'BRIEN: Yes. He doesn't want to be Gerald Ford, I guess.

All right.

SCHNEIDER: Not at all.

O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider, as always, a pleasure. We appreciate your insights and stay tuned for more of as the recall turns -- Kyra.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Our Republican rival for governor has come out with some radio attack adds, accusing Arnold Schwarzenegger of being a liberal.

Bill Simon is also challenging Schwarzenegger to devise a plan to solve the state's economic crisis.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL SIMON, CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: That's good to hear about some of the stances that Arnold has. You know, for example, he's pro-abortion, I'm not. I'm pro-life.

But the bottom line again is this, we need plans to fix California. We need to hear about Mr. Schwarzenegger's ideas in a broad variety of areas. Lieutenant governor is correct. This election is not about personality, it's about plans. It's about people that care about California.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Simon lost to Governor Gray Davis in last year's election.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com