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Al Qaeda in Iraq?

Aired August 20, 2003 - 13:49   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: I want to talk a little bit more about whether Al Qaeda or groups linked to it could be responsible for the scene you see there on your screen. Terrible violence, truck bombing there outside the United Nations location in Baghdad.
From our Washington bureau, I am joined by David Isby. He is a defense analyst who has written extensively about Al Qaeda's operations.

Mr. Isby, good to have you with us.

DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE & TERRORISM ANALYST: Good afternoon.

O'BRIEN: All right, first of all, what's your best sense, first hunch on this? Certainly, vehicle bombings are a hallmark of Al Qaeda. But Al Qaeda didn't invent this idea either. So do you think that Al Qaeda is at work, and is this evidence of it?

ISBY: We certainly don't know. I, however, would bet money that Al Qaeda is involved. It fits with the sort of bombings they've been involved in recently, a soft target, like a synagogue in Tunisia they attacked, the nightclub in Bali, the hotel in Jakarta. So we're seeing more of that. They don't want to attack something which has guys in camouflage uniforms standing around, which are going to shoot. It lack some of their signatures, like their desire to have simultaneous attacks. But this is the sort of thing Al Qaeda wants to do now, to prove that they're still relevant, still in the game.

O'BRIEN: All right, well, let's talk about not only relevance, but global reach if you will. We'll take a look at just a map to help guide us through the region. Obviously we're talking about Iraq here. If just zoom into the globe and give folks a little orientation of the region here for a moment and zoom in on Iraq, why would al Qaeda seek out Iraq? Is this a perfect emerging market for something like Al Qaeda?

ISBY: Well, it's not perfect, but Al Qaeda has suffered very much by the U.S. counterattack after 9/11. They've also suffered in the Arab street, quote/unquote. People were more sympathetic to them back in the 1990s when they were -- seemed to be oppressed by the Americans. There is not a lot of sympathy for terrorism in the Arab street.

However, there is even less sympathy for foreign occupation. No one likes foreign military occupation and the presence of the U.S. forces in an Islamic country. So here is Al Qaeda trying to reconnect with the source of its strengths in the 1990 and away from the image of the two towers.

O'BRIEN: Now we're moving next door to Syria. Syria is a logical place, perhaps, for Al Qaeda to set up shop, if nothing else, as a staging point into Iraq, correct?

ISBY: Certainly, Ambassador Bremer has recently pointed at Syria as being not so much a base, but a waystation of terrorists, going in from other countries, including potential Al Qaeda members, going into Iraq. Of course, Syria has long links to terror, back in the 1980s, in the form of Hezbollah. And even if they don't have a hand of the situation in Iraq, their intelligence services remain very active.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's move over to the obvious here, Afghanistan, which of course was home base for al Qaeda before the U.S. took the Taliban and Al Qaeda to task there.

Nevertheless, we're seeing a lot of activity in Afghanistan right now, aimed at the government of Hamid Karzai. What does that tell you? Is Al Qaeda alive and well in Afghanistan?

ISBY: Certainly, Al Qaeda, its Taliban successors, the forces associated with Gordadan Hechmacha (ph), Afghan political leader, have formed a coalition against Karzai, against the U.S. forces there. They are trying, by violence, to disrupt the political process, and they have managed to increase the violence. The goal there is to scare away international groups helping with reconstruction, humanitarian aids, that are helping to show the Afghans life is better without the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

O'BRIEN: And what I've done as you've been talking is I've moved our map over into Pakistan, which of course has been that porous border between those two countries, mountainous, and in some cases, more or less lawless, has been a source of problem for years as a hiding place for al Qaeda. Are they still alive and well in the caves?

ISBY: Very much not only in the caves, but in the cities. Places like Karachi, Islamabad, have been hot beds of terrorism in recent months. You also have northwest frontier province, an Islamist government there, which at least makes the rhetoric of siding with the Taliban and some of their supporters.

So that is also the fact that you have supporters of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistanis more religious extremist parties, and also in the security service, especially the ISI, Interservice Intelligence. Problems in Afghanistan are very much linked to Pakistan.

O'BRIEN: And finally, we would be remiss if we didn't talk about Saudi Arabia as a possible launching point, a place where many Al Qaeda recruits are formed, as it were. Bring us up to date on what's going on there. Are the Saudis getting tough on Al Qaeda for real?

ISBY: Well, the Saudis, certainly. The fact the recent terror attacks, even though they were against foreigner, have brought the Saudis around in a way that 9/11 really did not. There is still a long way to go, especially with the financing. If there is one center of gravity of Al Qaeda worldwide, it's the money. And an awful lot of this money, which is going not just to Al Qaeda worldwide, but to the insurgency in Iraq, is probably coming in suitcases full of big denomination bills out of Saudi Arabia. So the Saudis have to help crack down on that.

O'BRIEN: David Isby, on that sobering note, thank you very much for shedding quite a bit of light and literally traveling a lot of ground with us in a very short period of time. We do appreciate that.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired August 20, 2003 - 13:49   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: I want to talk a little bit more about whether Al Qaeda or groups linked to it could be responsible for the scene you see there on your screen. Terrible violence, truck bombing there outside the United Nations location in Baghdad.
From our Washington bureau, I am joined by David Isby. He is a defense analyst who has written extensively about Al Qaeda's operations.

Mr. Isby, good to have you with us.

DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE & TERRORISM ANALYST: Good afternoon.

O'BRIEN: All right, first of all, what's your best sense, first hunch on this? Certainly, vehicle bombings are a hallmark of Al Qaeda. But Al Qaeda didn't invent this idea either. So do you think that Al Qaeda is at work, and is this evidence of it?

ISBY: We certainly don't know. I, however, would bet money that Al Qaeda is involved. It fits with the sort of bombings they've been involved in recently, a soft target, like a synagogue in Tunisia they attacked, the nightclub in Bali, the hotel in Jakarta. So we're seeing more of that. They don't want to attack something which has guys in camouflage uniforms standing around, which are going to shoot. It lack some of their signatures, like their desire to have simultaneous attacks. But this is the sort of thing Al Qaeda wants to do now, to prove that they're still relevant, still in the game.

O'BRIEN: All right, well, let's talk about not only relevance, but global reach if you will. We'll take a look at just a map to help guide us through the region. Obviously we're talking about Iraq here. If just zoom into the globe and give folks a little orientation of the region here for a moment and zoom in on Iraq, why would al Qaeda seek out Iraq? Is this a perfect emerging market for something like Al Qaeda?

ISBY: Well, it's not perfect, but Al Qaeda has suffered very much by the U.S. counterattack after 9/11. They've also suffered in the Arab street, quote/unquote. People were more sympathetic to them back in the 1990s when they were -- seemed to be oppressed by the Americans. There is not a lot of sympathy for terrorism in the Arab street.

However, there is even less sympathy for foreign occupation. No one likes foreign military occupation and the presence of the U.S. forces in an Islamic country. So here is Al Qaeda trying to reconnect with the source of its strengths in the 1990 and away from the image of the two towers.

O'BRIEN: Now we're moving next door to Syria. Syria is a logical place, perhaps, for Al Qaeda to set up shop, if nothing else, as a staging point into Iraq, correct?

ISBY: Certainly, Ambassador Bremer has recently pointed at Syria as being not so much a base, but a waystation of terrorists, going in from other countries, including potential Al Qaeda members, going into Iraq. Of course, Syria has long links to terror, back in the 1980s, in the form of Hezbollah. And even if they don't have a hand of the situation in Iraq, their intelligence services remain very active.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's move over to the obvious here, Afghanistan, which of course was home base for al Qaeda before the U.S. took the Taliban and Al Qaeda to task there.

Nevertheless, we're seeing a lot of activity in Afghanistan right now, aimed at the government of Hamid Karzai. What does that tell you? Is Al Qaeda alive and well in Afghanistan?

ISBY: Certainly, Al Qaeda, its Taliban successors, the forces associated with Gordadan Hechmacha (ph), Afghan political leader, have formed a coalition against Karzai, against the U.S. forces there. They are trying, by violence, to disrupt the political process, and they have managed to increase the violence. The goal there is to scare away international groups helping with reconstruction, humanitarian aids, that are helping to show the Afghans life is better without the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

O'BRIEN: And what I've done as you've been talking is I've moved our map over into Pakistan, which of course has been that porous border between those two countries, mountainous, and in some cases, more or less lawless, has been a source of problem for years as a hiding place for al Qaeda. Are they still alive and well in the caves?

ISBY: Very much not only in the caves, but in the cities. Places like Karachi, Islamabad, have been hot beds of terrorism in recent months. You also have northwest frontier province, an Islamist government there, which at least makes the rhetoric of siding with the Taliban and some of their supporters.

So that is also the fact that you have supporters of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistanis more religious extremist parties, and also in the security service, especially the ISI, Interservice Intelligence. Problems in Afghanistan are very much linked to Pakistan.

O'BRIEN: And finally, we would be remiss if we didn't talk about Saudi Arabia as a possible launching point, a place where many Al Qaeda recruits are formed, as it were. Bring us up to date on what's going on there. Are the Saudis getting tough on Al Qaeda for real?

ISBY: Well, the Saudis, certainly. The fact the recent terror attacks, even though they were against foreigner, have brought the Saudis around in a way that 9/11 really did not. There is still a long way to go, especially with the financing. If there is one center of gravity of Al Qaeda worldwide, it's the money. And an awful lot of this money, which is going not just to Al Qaeda worldwide, but to the insurgency in Iraq, is probably coming in suitcases full of big denomination bills out of Saudi Arabia. So the Saudis have to help crack down on that.

O'BRIEN: David Isby, on that sobering note, thank you very much for shedding quite a bit of light and literally traveling a lot of ground with us in a very short period of time. We do appreciate that.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com