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Sizing Up California Recall Race

Aired August 29, 2003 - 15:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Campaign finance reports filed with state officials reveal the big names also have the big money in the California recall race.
The records show that Arnold Schwarzenegger has raised just over $3 million since entering the race; $2 million came from his own pocket. "The L.A. Times" reports that Schwarzenegger had $1.6 million on hand as of last weekend and more than $800,000 in debts. "The Times" reports that Governor Gray Davis has raised $6 million this year. He has about $4 million available to fight off the recall effort.

Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante reported more than $700,000 in the bank. More than half of that money came from cash left over from his 2002 campaign account. Republican Tom McClintock has brought in more than a half million dollars for his recall campaign, but he could be left out of the official state voter information guide. Under new campaign finance rules, McClintock will be excluded from the guide because he declined to accept campaign spending limits.

McClintock's lawyer said today that he planned to ask the California Supreme Court to order the secretary of state to include McClintock in the voter guide.

Well, for more on the fascinating California recall race, I'm joined by three veteran political reporters, Michael Finnegan of "The Los Angeles Times"; Dan Balz of "The Washington Post," who is in Los Angeles. And Joe Klein of "TIME" magazine is with us from New York.

Gentlemen, great to see all three.

Michael Finnegan, to you first, and I want to ask all three of you.

In a nutshell, how do you size up this race? We're looking at a poll that shows Bustamante, the lieutenant governor, 13 points ahead. How do you see it?

MICHAEL FINNEGAN, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, on the Democratic side, Cruz Bustamante is on the only well-known Democrat. And on the Republican side, you've got Schwarzenegger competing with Tom McClintock and Ueberroth.

And the main dynamic at play is McClintock sort of cornering the conservative vote and Schwarzenegger going right down the middle and trying to get as much of that conservative vote as he can away from McClintock. And Ueberroth for the time being is -- has not registered, to speak of.

WOODRUFF: Dan, how do you size this race up right now?

DAN BALZ, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I agree with Michael.

I think that Bustamante clearly is the Democrat who has the capacity at this point to be the only one who could compete against Schwarzenegger. I think there are problems for both Schwarzenegger and Bustamante. I think, basically, each one has this problem. Bustamante suffers from the potential that people who vote no on the recall for Davis on part A of the ballot will not vote in the second vote. And that could cut down on his potential vote among Democratic voters.

Schwarzenegger, as Michael said, has got to do more to consolidate conservative votes, so that the Republican vote doesn't splinter and end up letting a Democrat win this.

WOODRUFF: And, Joe Klein, how does it look to you from New York?

JOE KLEIN, "TIME": Well, I agree with what everybody has said so far, but with a huge caveat, which is that we're in totally unchartered waters here.

And we don't know who's going to come out to vote. We don't know what the shape of the electorate's going to be. Polling is usually dependent on past elections. But this is a completely unique vote that's going to take place. And so, to my mind, anything can happen. And I'm loath to make predictions of any sort, including, by the way, the fact that Davis could beat the recall.

WOODRUFF: All right, well, we want to ask you about that.

But, quickly, let me ask you to listen to something Schwarzenegger said last night. When he first was asked by this "Oui" magazine article two days ago, he kind of shrugged it off and said: That was what I did when I was young. I didn't know I was going to be a politician.

But he was a little bit testy yesterday. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I don't know what they're talking about. But on top of that, I'm here to push my economic agenda. I'm here to listen to the people. I'm here to have a rally in Fresno. That's what I'm doing. I'm not paying attention to all of those things. I have no memory of any of the articles I did 20 or 30 years ago.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Michael Finnegan, is this a problem for him?

FINNEGAN: Well, timing, more than anything, is a bit of a problem, because he's been on conservative radio several times over the last few days in order to court conservative voters in California.

And whether voters are going to care about the actual things that he said in this old article is open to question. But it's not the kind of thing that is helpful, when the main thing he's trying to do right now is court conservatives.

WOODRUFF: Dan, what about it?

BALZ: I think that's right.

I think that the initial reactions have been very tentative about this. I spoke last night with Senator McClintock's campaign director, who basically did not want to get into this. They did not want to in any way kind of try to take advantage of this to try to solidify their own support among conservatives.

I think, for social conservatives, Arnold Schwarzenegger is a candidate that they're less likely to go for anyway. He's really aiming more at economic conservatives. They may be a little less interested in wading into the 26-year-old interview in the "Oui" magazine. But I don't know. I think, as Joe said, all of this is kind of in an uncertain environment right now. And we have to see how these things begin to play out over the next couple of days or weeks.

WOODRUFF: So, Joe, could this be just a distraction? And, if so, what does Arnold need to do?

KLEIN: Well, I think, historically, politicians with interesting sex lives, an interesting sex life is a leading indicator of success in the American presidency. That's for sure. So this may work to his advantage, except among lifestyle conservatives.

The other thing is that, if he's pushing an economic agenda, maybe we should hear some of the details of it. This may be a distraction that isn't a bad one. I mean, this guy is a celebrity. You expect celebrities to have wild lives.

WOODRUFF: All right, you all mentioned -- a couple of you, anyway, mentioned Lieutenant Governor Bustamante. Is he as far out front as that poll indicated, Michael Finnegan? And, in any event, what kind of campaign can he carry on, when he's really telling people, go ahead and vote no on the recall?

FINNEGAN: Well, it's true that the polls are relatively unreliable in this unique environment.

For example, who knows what impact having 135 different people on the ballot is going to have. You just don't know. So, as far as Bustamante and where he is on that, it's just not at all clear on the polling.

What was the second part of your question? I'm sorry.

WOODRUFF: Well, I was going to ask you about -- well, about the race overall. But I want to move on quickly to Dan and ask about -- we heard you -- I think it was you or Joe say that Gray Davis could pull this out. Does he have a chance to survive this recall vote?

BALZ: Well, you would have to say the odds are pretty tough. His approval rating is around 20 percent. That's 20 points lower than it was last November, when he won reelection, but not impressively, against a very weak Bill Simon. So you would have to say he's running very much uphill.

On the other hand, his folks think that the margin on the recall at this point is not insurmountable. I think the question is whether Gray Davis himself is up to finding a way to reach back to Democratic voters and to try to get them to give him one more opportunity to stay in office. But I don't know whether he can do that.

(CROSSTALK)

WOODRUFF: Does he have a shot?

Go ahead, Joe.

KLEIN: Yes.

I think what the polling has shown so far is that there are very few undecideds, relatively few undecideds, on the recall question. And the number of people who are firmly against Davis is around 50 percent. But, once again, the caveat: Who's coming out? And how are these other guys, like Schwarzenegger and Bustamante and the others, going to play over the course of this very brief campaign?

We don't even know how the public is going to react to a campaign this brief. Will it lead to more scrutiny of the candidates or less? It's -- this is a total mystery. And, by the way, it's also kind of a joke.

WOODRUFF: Nothing dull about this campaign. I don't know about the joke part, but nothing dull about it, real consequences for the people of California.

All right, Joe Klein, Dan Balz, Michael Finnegan, great to see all three of you. We appreciate it.

(CROSSTALK)

WOODRUFF: We'll talk to you again very soon. Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired August 29, 2003 - 15:11   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Campaign finance reports filed with state officials reveal the big names also have the big money in the California recall race.
The records show that Arnold Schwarzenegger has raised just over $3 million since entering the race; $2 million came from his own pocket. "The L.A. Times" reports that Schwarzenegger had $1.6 million on hand as of last weekend and more than $800,000 in debts. "The Times" reports that Governor Gray Davis has raised $6 million this year. He has about $4 million available to fight off the recall effort.

Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante reported more than $700,000 in the bank. More than half of that money came from cash left over from his 2002 campaign account. Republican Tom McClintock has brought in more than a half million dollars for his recall campaign, but he could be left out of the official state voter information guide. Under new campaign finance rules, McClintock will be excluded from the guide because he declined to accept campaign spending limits.

McClintock's lawyer said today that he planned to ask the California Supreme Court to order the secretary of state to include McClintock in the voter guide.

Well, for more on the fascinating California recall race, I'm joined by three veteran political reporters, Michael Finnegan of "The Los Angeles Times"; Dan Balz of "The Washington Post," who is in Los Angeles. And Joe Klein of "TIME" magazine is with us from New York.

Gentlemen, great to see all three.

Michael Finnegan, to you first, and I want to ask all three of you.

In a nutshell, how do you size up this race? We're looking at a poll that shows Bustamante, the lieutenant governor, 13 points ahead. How do you see it?

MICHAEL FINNEGAN, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, on the Democratic side, Cruz Bustamante is on the only well-known Democrat. And on the Republican side, you've got Schwarzenegger competing with Tom McClintock and Ueberroth.

And the main dynamic at play is McClintock sort of cornering the conservative vote and Schwarzenegger going right down the middle and trying to get as much of that conservative vote as he can away from McClintock. And Ueberroth for the time being is -- has not registered, to speak of.

WOODRUFF: Dan, how do you size this race up right now?

DAN BALZ, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I agree with Michael.

I think that Bustamante clearly is the Democrat who has the capacity at this point to be the only one who could compete against Schwarzenegger. I think there are problems for both Schwarzenegger and Bustamante. I think, basically, each one has this problem. Bustamante suffers from the potential that people who vote no on the recall for Davis on part A of the ballot will not vote in the second vote. And that could cut down on his potential vote among Democratic voters.

Schwarzenegger, as Michael said, has got to do more to consolidate conservative votes, so that the Republican vote doesn't splinter and end up letting a Democrat win this.

WOODRUFF: And, Joe Klein, how does it look to you from New York?

JOE KLEIN, "TIME": Well, I agree with what everybody has said so far, but with a huge caveat, which is that we're in totally unchartered waters here.

And we don't know who's going to come out to vote. We don't know what the shape of the electorate's going to be. Polling is usually dependent on past elections. But this is a completely unique vote that's going to take place. And so, to my mind, anything can happen. And I'm loath to make predictions of any sort, including, by the way, the fact that Davis could beat the recall.

WOODRUFF: All right, well, we want to ask you about that.

But, quickly, let me ask you to listen to something Schwarzenegger said last night. When he first was asked by this "Oui" magazine article two days ago, he kind of shrugged it off and said: That was what I did when I was young. I didn't know I was going to be a politician.

But he was a little bit testy yesterday. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I don't know what they're talking about. But on top of that, I'm here to push my economic agenda. I'm here to listen to the people. I'm here to have a rally in Fresno. That's what I'm doing. I'm not paying attention to all of those things. I have no memory of any of the articles I did 20 or 30 years ago.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Michael Finnegan, is this a problem for him?

FINNEGAN: Well, timing, more than anything, is a bit of a problem, because he's been on conservative radio several times over the last few days in order to court conservative voters in California.

And whether voters are going to care about the actual things that he said in this old article is open to question. But it's not the kind of thing that is helpful, when the main thing he's trying to do right now is court conservatives.

WOODRUFF: Dan, what about it?

BALZ: I think that's right.

I think that the initial reactions have been very tentative about this. I spoke last night with Senator McClintock's campaign director, who basically did not want to get into this. They did not want to in any way kind of try to take advantage of this to try to solidify their own support among conservatives.

I think, for social conservatives, Arnold Schwarzenegger is a candidate that they're less likely to go for anyway. He's really aiming more at economic conservatives. They may be a little less interested in wading into the 26-year-old interview in the "Oui" magazine. But I don't know. I think, as Joe said, all of this is kind of in an uncertain environment right now. And we have to see how these things begin to play out over the next couple of days or weeks.

WOODRUFF: So, Joe, could this be just a distraction? And, if so, what does Arnold need to do?

KLEIN: Well, I think, historically, politicians with interesting sex lives, an interesting sex life is a leading indicator of success in the American presidency. That's for sure. So this may work to his advantage, except among lifestyle conservatives.

The other thing is that, if he's pushing an economic agenda, maybe we should hear some of the details of it. This may be a distraction that isn't a bad one. I mean, this guy is a celebrity. You expect celebrities to have wild lives.

WOODRUFF: All right, you all mentioned -- a couple of you, anyway, mentioned Lieutenant Governor Bustamante. Is he as far out front as that poll indicated, Michael Finnegan? And, in any event, what kind of campaign can he carry on, when he's really telling people, go ahead and vote no on the recall?

FINNEGAN: Well, it's true that the polls are relatively unreliable in this unique environment.

For example, who knows what impact having 135 different people on the ballot is going to have. You just don't know. So, as far as Bustamante and where he is on that, it's just not at all clear on the polling.

What was the second part of your question? I'm sorry.

WOODRUFF: Well, I was going to ask you about -- well, about the race overall. But I want to move on quickly to Dan and ask about -- we heard you -- I think it was you or Joe say that Gray Davis could pull this out. Does he have a chance to survive this recall vote?

BALZ: Well, you would have to say the odds are pretty tough. His approval rating is around 20 percent. That's 20 points lower than it was last November, when he won reelection, but not impressively, against a very weak Bill Simon. So you would have to say he's running very much uphill.

On the other hand, his folks think that the margin on the recall at this point is not insurmountable. I think the question is whether Gray Davis himself is up to finding a way to reach back to Democratic voters and to try to get them to give him one more opportunity to stay in office. But I don't know whether he can do that.

(CROSSTALK)

WOODRUFF: Does he have a shot?

Go ahead, Joe.

KLEIN: Yes.

I think what the polling has shown so far is that there are very few undecideds, relatively few undecideds, on the recall question. And the number of people who are firmly against Davis is around 50 percent. But, once again, the caveat: Who's coming out? And how are these other guys, like Schwarzenegger and Bustamante and the others, going to play over the course of this very brief campaign?

We don't even know how the public is going to react to a campaign this brief. Will it lead to more scrutiny of the candidates or less? It's -- this is a total mystery. And, by the way, it's also kind of a joke.

WOODRUFF: Nothing dull about this campaign. I don't know about the joke part, but nothing dull about it, real consequences for the people of California.

All right, Joe Klein, Dan Balz, Michael Finnegan, great to see all three of you. We appreciate it.

(CROSSTALK)

WOODRUFF: We'll talk to you again very soon. Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com