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Political Analysis With Howard Shapiro

Aired September 01, 2003 - 13:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: As summer winds down, get ready -- her comes the politicians. Already nine Democrats are running to unseat President Bush next fall and a new poll suggests it's anyone's race, largely because many voters aren't exactly sure who's running. Two-thirds of the people surveyed by CBS News couldn't even name one of the candidates.
Most of them are out and about today, shaking hands, riding in parades and taking swipes at each other. And just think, the campaign season has just begun.

Walter Shapiro has covered his share of presidential campaigns. A political columnist for "USA Today," he joins us from New York.

Walter, good to see you.

WALTER SHAPIRO, "USA TODAY": Oh, it's great to be here, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right. Let's first talk about just the people paying attention to this race. Specifically, the Democratic side. Is it happening? The polls are saying no.

SHAPIRO: Well, in a certain level, it shouldn't happen yet. It's four-and-a-half months before the opening gun Iowa caucuses, and for the most part, it's a rational use of your time if you're not overtly political, to only focus on the race in the month or two before you actually go to the polls or go to a caucus station. TV ads are just beginning about now. And people will be a lot more interested in this presidential contest, which is a terrific, fascinating race, by November 1 than they are now.

So it's right now, we're still into political junkie season, even though it is really important that the candidates have honed their issue positions and have money in the bank to pay for those television ads.

PHILLIPS: Why do you say fascinating, Walter?

SHAPIRO: Well, I cannot think of a year -- and this goes back a while, where as many different scenarios as you can come up with as to who can win.

You've had Howard Dean, who was Howard Who -- isn't it silly that the governor of Vermont is running for president? And in nine months, he's gone from that to can anyone stop Internet-powered Howard Dean? This race has already changed several times and right now, there are certainly five candidates out there, maybe six, with very plausible claims on the nomination.

PHILLIPS: So what's going to take one of these individuals to go past another? I mean, we've been hearing Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt, Howard Dean, those are sort of the three names you hear a lot about. But what's it going to take for someone to stand out among everybody?

SHAPIRO: Well, first of all, what it takes is the only issue so far that's had traction in the Democratic race is the Iraqi war. And one of the things that is really -- not the only thing, but one of the things that has powered Dean so far is his unequivocal skepticism about that war.

We're now getting into the phase where they're going to be arguing over tax policy, over healthcare plans. We have a debate coming up in Albuquerque this Thursday night. And the combination of it, somebody is going to hit a wave, or Howard Dean will just keep rolling in with this -- God, to keep the aquatic metaphor going, with this tidal wave.

PHILLIPS: Well isn't -- when you mention the Iraqi war, isn't this the chance for Wes Clark to come forward and say Hey, I'm the man of the hour here?

SHAPIRO: Well, here you have a CNN military analyst or former military analyst, Wesley Clark, a former NATO commander. But what I am baffled about is Wesley Clark has been talking for a year with people about maybe I should run for president. He's now announced that he'll make up his mind in mid-September. That will be eight months after the last candidate, Bob Graham, got into the race. And you wonder, what has he been waiting for? You know, that to a large extent, the way you run for president is to run for president. That's what Howard Dean did. You don't do what Wesley Clark has been doing, which is wander around the Aspen Institute in Colorado asking all sorts of elitist Americans, Do you think I should run for president or not?

PHILLIPS: It's true, he hasn't really sat down and really talked about the issues.

SHAPIRO: Kiatuck, Iowa is a lot more important than the Aspen Institute in this Democratic race.

PHILLIPS: All right. What about Hillary Clinton? Do I dare bring up the name?

SHAPIRO: Oh, please. Please. Because this is the Fox News, "New York Post" absolute -- their absolute monomaniacal fascination. And I think it's only because mentioning the name Clinton is what certain Murdoch-owned publications and TV stations need to boost the -- to boost the fever pitch of right wing conservatives.

Hillary Clinton is not running for president in 2004. There is no chance of her running. She has said that unequivocally. And, in fact, it makes no sense. Because right now in the polls, roughly 45 percent of the American people would not vote for her if France was the other item on the ballot. And confronted with that, you don't run for president in order to lose.

And maybe in 2008, when all of Hillary's people have been laying the groundwork for this race, maybe it will -- she will be a formidable candidate. But right now, even though this is a conservative wish fulfillment fantasy going, Hillary Clinton will not be on the Democratic ticket in 2004.

PHILLIPS: Walter Shapiro. You can catch his column in "USA Today" if you don't catch him here on CNN with us. Thanks, Walter.

SHAPIRO: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 1, 2003 - 13:32   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: As summer winds down, get ready -- her comes the politicians. Already nine Democrats are running to unseat President Bush next fall and a new poll suggests it's anyone's race, largely because many voters aren't exactly sure who's running. Two-thirds of the people surveyed by CBS News couldn't even name one of the candidates.
Most of them are out and about today, shaking hands, riding in parades and taking swipes at each other. And just think, the campaign season has just begun.

Walter Shapiro has covered his share of presidential campaigns. A political columnist for "USA Today," he joins us from New York.

Walter, good to see you.

WALTER SHAPIRO, "USA TODAY": Oh, it's great to be here, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right. Let's first talk about just the people paying attention to this race. Specifically, the Democratic side. Is it happening? The polls are saying no.

SHAPIRO: Well, in a certain level, it shouldn't happen yet. It's four-and-a-half months before the opening gun Iowa caucuses, and for the most part, it's a rational use of your time if you're not overtly political, to only focus on the race in the month or two before you actually go to the polls or go to a caucus station. TV ads are just beginning about now. And people will be a lot more interested in this presidential contest, which is a terrific, fascinating race, by November 1 than they are now.

So it's right now, we're still into political junkie season, even though it is really important that the candidates have honed their issue positions and have money in the bank to pay for those television ads.

PHILLIPS: Why do you say fascinating, Walter?

SHAPIRO: Well, I cannot think of a year -- and this goes back a while, where as many different scenarios as you can come up with as to who can win.

You've had Howard Dean, who was Howard Who -- isn't it silly that the governor of Vermont is running for president? And in nine months, he's gone from that to can anyone stop Internet-powered Howard Dean? This race has already changed several times and right now, there are certainly five candidates out there, maybe six, with very plausible claims on the nomination.

PHILLIPS: So what's going to take one of these individuals to go past another? I mean, we've been hearing Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt, Howard Dean, those are sort of the three names you hear a lot about. But what's it going to take for someone to stand out among everybody?

SHAPIRO: Well, first of all, what it takes is the only issue so far that's had traction in the Democratic race is the Iraqi war. And one of the things that is really -- not the only thing, but one of the things that has powered Dean so far is his unequivocal skepticism about that war.

We're now getting into the phase where they're going to be arguing over tax policy, over healthcare plans. We have a debate coming up in Albuquerque this Thursday night. And the combination of it, somebody is going to hit a wave, or Howard Dean will just keep rolling in with this -- God, to keep the aquatic metaphor going, with this tidal wave.

PHILLIPS: Well isn't -- when you mention the Iraqi war, isn't this the chance for Wes Clark to come forward and say Hey, I'm the man of the hour here?

SHAPIRO: Well, here you have a CNN military analyst or former military analyst, Wesley Clark, a former NATO commander. But what I am baffled about is Wesley Clark has been talking for a year with people about maybe I should run for president. He's now announced that he'll make up his mind in mid-September. That will be eight months after the last candidate, Bob Graham, got into the race. And you wonder, what has he been waiting for? You know, that to a large extent, the way you run for president is to run for president. That's what Howard Dean did. You don't do what Wesley Clark has been doing, which is wander around the Aspen Institute in Colorado asking all sorts of elitist Americans, Do you think I should run for president or not?

PHILLIPS: It's true, he hasn't really sat down and really talked about the issues.

SHAPIRO: Kiatuck, Iowa is a lot more important than the Aspen Institute in this Democratic race.

PHILLIPS: All right. What about Hillary Clinton? Do I dare bring up the name?

SHAPIRO: Oh, please. Please. Because this is the Fox News, "New York Post" absolute -- their absolute monomaniacal fascination. And I think it's only because mentioning the name Clinton is what certain Murdoch-owned publications and TV stations need to boost the -- to boost the fever pitch of right wing conservatives.

Hillary Clinton is not running for president in 2004. There is no chance of her running. She has said that unequivocally. And, in fact, it makes no sense. Because right now in the polls, roughly 45 percent of the American people would not vote for her if France was the other item on the ballot. And confronted with that, you don't run for president in order to lose.

And maybe in 2008, when all of Hillary's people have been laying the groundwork for this race, maybe it will -- she will be a formidable candidate. But right now, even though this is a conservative wish fulfillment fantasy going, Hillary Clinton will not be on the Democratic ticket in 2004.

PHILLIPS: Walter Shapiro. You can catch his column in "USA Today" if you don't catch him here on CNN with us. Thanks, Walter.

SHAPIRO: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com