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Look at Poll of White House Candidates

Aired September 02, 2003 - 14:37   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well so many candidates, so little time. Democrats certainly have options this year. A field so crowded with presidential wannabes how's a voter to chose? Besides, who knows what a Democrat really wants in a candidate? Well we do, and so does Gallup Poll's editor in chief Frank Newport. He joins us now from Princeton, New Jersey -- Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP, EDITOR IN CHIEF: Well hello, Kyra. I know what a lot of the Democratic candidates want and that's higher name identification from Democrats nationally. Our interesting CNN- "USA Today" poll we just finished showed that only about a third of Democrats are really following the race closely.

Now look here. When we asked nationally who would you vote for, these are registered Democrats, we read them the list of all the nine major candidates, Lieberman still in the lead, 23 percent. Then tied for second Congressman Gephardt, Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont. And as you just heard senator John Kerry of Massachusetts who announced today that's officially running.

Now a lot of this reflects name I.D. Lieberman, of course, was the vice presidential nominee under Al Gore in 2000. Lots of Democrats know him. In fact, by my calculations the percent of Democrats, based on our data, who have an opinion of Lieberman either way, that's my view of name I.D. is 73 percent. So Lieberman's better known than any of the other candidates.

See Gephardt comes below that, Kerry as 56 percent. A note, Kyra, Howard Dean just 43 percent of Democrats nationally know enough about Dean To Have an opinion of him, and that's important because Dean, of course, is seen by the front runner by a lot of candidates nationally. At the same time he's not well known. He does well in New Hampshire. If he gets better known maybe he'll do better as far as that's concerned.

One other point here, Kyra. On the other side of the aisle, among Republicans, how is Bush doing? His job approval rating at 59 percent right now. That's good. As you can see the other ratings here of candidates who have been in October before the running for re- election look like it doesn't make much difference now because a lot can change. His father well over 50 percent. Kyra, back to you.

PHILLIPS: All right, our Frank Newport, thank you -- Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With a 45 percent favorable rating among Democrats, Senator John Kerry made it official today launching his presidential bid against the backdrop of an aircraft carrier, a long way from Massachusetts. Off the coast of South Carolina. His plans showcase his war record and attack President Bush's tax policy, economic policy and war policy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He has squandered the goodwill of the world after September 11, and he has lost the respect and the influence that we need to make our country safe.

We are seeing the peril in Iraq everyday. I voted to threaten the use of force to make Saddam Hussein comply with the resolutions of the United Nations. I believe that was right. But it was wrong to rush to war without building a true international coalition and with no plan to win the peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Joining us is CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider. Mr. Schneider, good to have you with us, as always. Could have sworn John Kerry was from Massachusetts.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right.

O'BRIEN: What, the campaign plane got a little lost? Ended up in South Carolina? Why South Carolina?

SCHNEIDER: South Carolina has a very important early primary after New Hampshire. And Kerry is fighting for his life in New Hampshire which is becoming a two-way race between John Kerry from the neighboring state of Massachusetts and Howard Dean from the neighboring state of Vermont. Maybe if he loses Massachusetts -- rather New Hampshire, maybe Kerry can make another stand in South Carolina.

I think he also is trying to draw attention to the fact he's a national candidate, not simply a Massachusetts Democrat. The Democrats have nominated a Massachusetts Democrat once before, a man named Michael Dukakis. And in fact, John Kerry was Michael Dukakis's lieutenant governor. But he's not talking much about that. There he was today in South Carolina.

O'BRIEN: Less visions of that helmet and tank come back up.

So let me ask you this, is he sort of ceding the home field advantage would he naturally have in New England to Dr. Dean?

SCHNEIDER: I don't think he's ceding anything. He's going to fight really hard in New Hampshire. But so far he hasn't shown a loft momentum.

One of the problems is that John Kerry and Howard Dean are fishing in the same pond. Their constituents are mostly educated, upper-middle class professional voters. We call them in the political business the "NPR vote." They are people who really are angry at George Bush. And the problem that Kerry is having is Dean got there first with a message of real contempt for Bush.

Well in his announcement speech today you saw Kerry more or less playing catch up with Dean and saying he has just as much anger at George Bush as Howard Dean does. And he even carried it further by making -- taking a little gab at bush's appearance on a aircraft carrier and promising within 500 days of taking office he will restore at least half of the jobs that were lost during the Bush administration.

O'BRIEN: All right, so what that leave sincere a big block out there unaccounted for, that's the blue collar labor group. Presumably Dick Gephardt would be a guy who could go after the group. Can John Kerry make an appeal there? He doesn't seem like the kind of guy you would want to have a beer and hot dog with necessarily, right?

SCHNEIDER: John Kerry is wealthy patrician. His middle name is "Forbes". He was rated by "Forbes" magazine in fact as the wealthiest member of the United States Senate.

What does he in common with blue collar Democrats? Well the problem is they're up for grabs. Dick Gephardt who has a loft support among union members has not shown much momentum this year, either. He should the natural candidate among those blue collar voters.

Blue collar Democrats are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. They're not Howard Dean people, they don't look like John Kerry people, but that is why Kerry's message was so carefully pitched today on the issue of jobs, jobs, jobs.

He denounced George Bush for having lost nearly 3 million jobs, said he's going to make his first priority the restoration of those jobs. And of course he has one other pitch to make to the voters: John Kerry is the only Democrat now running for president who served in the military. He was heroic in Vietnam, was decorated for his service. And that gives him a connection with a lot of those blue collar voters.

O'BRIEN: So if General Wes Clark dropped into the race would that cause a problem for John Kerry? Or is that too speculative at this juncture?

SCHNEIDER: It is a bit speculative. But let's just say that John Kerry's military record would no longer be so distinctive if General Wesley Clark got in the race.

O'BRIEN: All right, and just quickly, Wes Clark possibly -- may be a running mate with Howard Dean down the road. Is that a possibility?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it would be because he would add something very interesting and important to the Howard Dean ticket. Howard Dean has no record of military service, he was governor of Vermont, he has no particular experience in international affairs.

Wesley Clark was the supreme commander of NATO who led the NATO forces in the Kosovo campaign. Wesley Clark not a well-known figure. He's not Eisenhower. He didn't win a world war. Most Americans don't even know we fought a war in Kosovo.

So he doesn't show up very strongly in the polls that Frank Newport was just pointing to a minute ago. But he does add that important quality of international experience.

He calls himself a friend of Howard Dean and a lot of people think if he does run for president maybe what he's really angling for is the No. 2 spot on a Dean/Clark ticket.

O'BRIEN: All right, Bill Schneider. Thanks for giving us a sense of where the race stands now with the entry of Senator Kerry of South Carolina -- no, I mean that's Massachusetts.

SCHNEIDER: Massachusetts.

O'BRIEN: All right. Bill Schneider, thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 2, 2003 - 14:37   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well so many candidates, so little time. Democrats certainly have options this year. A field so crowded with presidential wannabes how's a voter to chose? Besides, who knows what a Democrat really wants in a candidate? Well we do, and so does Gallup Poll's editor in chief Frank Newport. He joins us now from Princeton, New Jersey -- Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP, EDITOR IN CHIEF: Well hello, Kyra. I know what a lot of the Democratic candidates want and that's higher name identification from Democrats nationally. Our interesting CNN- "USA Today" poll we just finished showed that only about a third of Democrats are really following the race closely.

Now look here. When we asked nationally who would you vote for, these are registered Democrats, we read them the list of all the nine major candidates, Lieberman still in the lead, 23 percent. Then tied for second Congressman Gephardt, Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont. And as you just heard senator John Kerry of Massachusetts who announced today that's officially running.

Now a lot of this reflects name I.D. Lieberman, of course, was the vice presidential nominee under Al Gore in 2000. Lots of Democrats know him. In fact, by my calculations the percent of Democrats, based on our data, who have an opinion of Lieberman either way, that's my view of name I.D. is 73 percent. So Lieberman's better known than any of the other candidates.

See Gephardt comes below that, Kerry as 56 percent. A note, Kyra, Howard Dean just 43 percent of Democrats nationally know enough about Dean To Have an opinion of him, and that's important because Dean, of course, is seen by the front runner by a lot of candidates nationally. At the same time he's not well known. He does well in New Hampshire. If he gets better known maybe he'll do better as far as that's concerned.

One other point here, Kyra. On the other side of the aisle, among Republicans, how is Bush doing? His job approval rating at 59 percent right now. That's good. As you can see the other ratings here of candidates who have been in October before the running for re- election look like it doesn't make much difference now because a lot can change. His father well over 50 percent. Kyra, back to you.

PHILLIPS: All right, our Frank Newport, thank you -- Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With a 45 percent favorable rating among Democrats, Senator John Kerry made it official today launching his presidential bid against the backdrop of an aircraft carrier, a long way from Massachusetts. Off the coast of South Carolina. His plans showcase his war record and attack President Bush's tax policy, economic policy and war policy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He has squandered the goodwill of the world after September 11, and he has lost the respect and the influence that we need to make our country safe.

We are seeing the peril in Iraq everyday. I voted to threaten the use of force to make Saddam Hussein comply with the resolutions of the United Nations. I believe that was right. But it was wrong to rush to war without building a true international coalition and with no plan to win the peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Joining us is CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider. Mr. Schneider, good to have you with us, as always. Could have sworn John Kerry was from Massachusetts.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right.

O'BRIEN: What, the campaign plane got a little lost? Ended up in South Carolina? Why South Carolina?

SCHNEIDER: South Carolina has a very important early primary after New Hampshire. And Kerry is fighting for his life in New Hampshire which is becoming a two-way race between John Kerry from the neighboring state of Massachusetts and Howard Dean from the neighboring state of Vermont. Maybe if he loses Massachusetts -- rather New Hampshire, maybe Kerry can make another stand in South Carolina.

I think he also is trying to draw attention to the fact he's a national candidate, not simply a Massachusetts Democrat. The Democrats have nominated a Massachusetts Democrat once before, a man named Michael Dukakis. And in fact, John Kerry was Michael Dukakis's lieutenant governor. But he's not talking much about that. There he was today in South Carolina.

O'BRIEN: Less visions of that helmet and tank come back up.

So let me ask you this, is he sort of ceding the home field advantage would he naturally have in New England to Dr. Dean?

SCHNEIDER: I don't think he's ceding anything. He's going to fight really hard in New Hampshire. But so far he hasn't shown a loft momentum.

One of the problems is that John Kerry and Howard Dean are fishing in the same pond. Their constituents are mostly educated, upper-middle class professional voters. We call them in the political business the "NPR vote." They are people who really are angry at George Bush. And the problem that Kerry is having is Dean got there first with a message of real contempt for Bush.

Well in his announcement speech today you saw Kerry more or less playing catch up with Dean and saying he has just as much anger at George Bush as Howard Dean does. And he even carried it further by making -- taking a little gab at bush's appearance on a aircraft carrier and promising within 500 days of taking office he will restore at least half of the jobs that were lost during the Bush administration.

O'BRIEN: All right, so what that leave sincere a big block out there unaccounted for, that's the blue collar labor group. Presumably Dick Gephardt would be a guy who could go after the group. Can John Kerry make an appeal there? He doesn't seem like the kind of guy you would want to have a beer and hot dog with necessarily, right?

SCHNEIDER: John Kerry is wealthy patrician. His middle name is "Forbes". He was rated by "Forbes" magazine in fact as the wealthiest member of the United States Senate.

What does he in common with blue collar Democrats? Well the problem is they're up for grabs. Dick Gephardt who has a loft support among union members has not shown much momentum this year, either. He should the natural candidate among those blue collar voters.

Blue collar Democrats are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. They're not Howard Dean people, they don't look like John Kerry people, but that is why Kerry's message was so carefully pitched today on the issue of jobs, jobs, jobs.

He denounced George Bush for having lost nearly 3 million jobs, said he's going to make his first priority the restoration of those jobs. And of course he has one other pitch to make to the voters: John Kerry is the only Democrat now running for president who served in the military. He was heroic in Vietnam, was decorated for his service. And that gives him a connection with a lot of those blue collar voters.

O'BRIEN: So if General Wes Clark dropped into the race would that cause a problem for John Kerry? Or is that too speculative at this juncture?

SCHNEIDER: It is a bit speculative. But let's just say that John Kerry's military record would no longer be so distinctive if General Wesley Clark got in the race.

O'BRIEN: All right, and just quickly, Wes Clark possibly -- may be a running mate with Howard Dean down the road. Is that a possibility?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it would be because he would add something very interesting and important to the Howard Dean ticket. Howard Dean has no record of military service, he was governor of Vermont, he has no particular experience in international affairs.

Wesley Clark was the supreme commander of NATO who led the NATO forces in the Kosovo campaign. Wesley Clark not a well-known figure. He's not Eisenhower. He didn't win a world war. Most Americans don't even know we fought a war in Kosovo.

So he doesn't show up very strongly in the polls that Frank Newport was just pointing to a minute ago. But he does add that important quality of international experience.

He calls himself a friend of Howard Dean and a lot of people think if he does run for president maybe what he's really angling for is the No. 2 spot on a Dean/Clark ticket.

O'BRIEN: All right, Bill Schneider. Thanks for giving us a sense of where the race stands now with the entry of Senator Kerry of South Carolina -- no, I mean that's Massachusetts.

SCHNEIDER: Massachusetts.

O'BRIEN: All right. Bill Schneider, thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com