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Peter Ueberroth Expected to Withdraw From California Gubernatorial Race

Aired September 09, 2003 - 15:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Another Republican is getting out of Arnold Schwarzenegger's way in the California recall campaign. Peter Ueberroth is expected to make the announcement about an hour from now. And we will carry it live.
But right now, we want to go to Bob Franken in Los Angeles -- Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: According to a variety of sources, Ueberroth says he is not going to endorse a candidate right now, wants to meet with the other candidates to discuss job creation. That includes the Democrats, if they want to meet with him.

Ueberroth is pulling out, however. He's been mired way down in the polls. As a matter of fact, a Field poll that was just conducted showed that he had 5 percent, vs. Arnold Schwarzenegger, for instance, at 25 percent. You can also see conservative Tom McClintock, the other major Republican, at 13 percent. So the question, of course, becomes, where will the votes for Ueberroth go?

And the Field poll is going to put out a revised version tomorrow based on the same interviews which will try and answer that question. But there are reactions coming in from the other campaigns, starting with the Schwarzenegger campaign. A spokesman for Schwarzenegger said: "We would like to accept Mr. Ueberroth's invitation to hold that meeting. He has been running a positive campaign based upon the issues. And Arnold looks forward to meeting him to discuss how the two can team up to create jobs and turn California's budget around."

Now, the other Republican, who is the one who is considered the conservative, Tom McClintock, called Peter Ueberroth -- quote -- "a decent, honorable man whose absence in the California gubernatorial race will be felt."

And, yes, we do have a reaction from the campaign of Governor Gray Davis from the spokesman Peter Ragone, who says: "It looks like the Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign is strong-arming other Republicans. And we think, if Republicans coalesce around Arnold and McClintock, Dems and independents are going to rally against the recall."

The question is, exactly where will the votes go? We will probably have a better idea, Candy, when the Field poll comes out tomorrow. But, of course, this is such an unusual election, it's really hard to make any predictions -- Candy.

CROWLEY: Thanks very much, Bob Franken out in L.A. for us. Thanks, bob.

With Peter Ueberroth getting out, Tom McClintock now is the main target of GOP pressure to call it quits. According to the new Field poll, look what would happen if the conservative McClintock were to drop out. Schwarzenegger moves into first place by a hair. While the Field poll shows support for the recall has dipped, a majority of likely California voters still favor ousting Gray Davis.

Joining me now, the director of the Field Poll, Mark DiCamillo.

Thanks so much for joining us, Mark. We appreciate it.

MARK DICAMILLO, DIRECTOR, THE FIELD POLL: Good afternoon.

CROWLEY: I want to ask you right off the bat about Governor Gray Davis' numbers. As compared to last month, those who seem to support the recall have faded a little. Is there a trajectory here that's positive for him or is that a blip?

DICAMILLO: Well, we have taken four polls now. And this is the first poll where he has actually improved his standing. In each of the three preceding polls, in each poll, he was getting worse numbers.

So at least he stopped the bleeding. It's a marginal gain, though. He has only picked up three points. It was 58 percent in August. It's 55 percent now. He's still got a ways to go. And most of the vote on the yes/no vote on the Davis recall is very solid. At least that's what voters are saying; 94 percent say they are very certain about their choice. They have a very strong opinion about Gray Davis. So it's going to be a challenge for him to make up the remaining ground.

CROWLEY: Now, let me ask you about Peter Ueberroth and his getting out and how that affects -- can you look at the polls that you took prior to the news that Ueberroth would pull out and tell us who that might affect most?

DICAMILLO: We are going to do that this afternoon. We actually ask all voters in the polls who their first preference is and then if they have a second preference. And so we will look at those who supported Ueberroth as their first choice and look at their second choice and allocate his supporters among the other candidates. Again, that should be out tomorrow in the 6:00 a.m. hour.

CROWLEY: So tell me, when you looked at the numbers, what most struck you as different or unusual. Did anything sort of stand out?

DICAMILLO: Well, even with the intense media focus on this particular race, I was struck by how stable the numbers have been. We only saw a three-point shift in the governor on the yes/no vote for Davis, from 58 to 55.

And then, on the replacement ballot, we had a three-point Bustamante advantage in August. It's now five points, very similar kinds of numbers, not a lot of wild gyration going on, although with candidates dropping out, that could have an effect. Between the last poll and this poll, Bill Simon dropped out. What struck me was that Schwarzenegger didn't really benefit all that much from that. Actually, McClintock seemed to be more of a beneficiary of Simon dropping out than Schwarzenegger.

CROWLEY: Which may be why we see the Republicans pushing McClintock.

I want to ask you about the poll itself and polls in general. You have never polled anything like this before in this race. Do you think sort of look at these polls and think, boy, here's how it is right this second? Or do you think that there's a chance that these polls are just dead wrong because we don't know who is going to come out and vote?

DICAMILLO: Well, I think we have a pretty good idea who is coming out and voting. That's really part of the poll.

We ask voters what their intent is, what their interest is, what their past voting history is. And, usually, those indicators are pretty reliable in terms of gauging with who is likely to vote. So, no, I think this particular election has some unique properties. I think there's this interaction effect which I have never seen before between how one feels about one side of the ballot and how one votes on the other side.

Really, it matters how people feel about the replacement candidates as to how they will look at the first side on the yes/no. If they have an appealing replacement candidate in mind, I think they are more inclined to vote to recall the governor. And in the current poll, it seems that most of the voters think the replacement candidates would do a better job than Davis. If that continues, I think Davis has real problems.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll. We appreciate your expertise.

Governor Davis launches a new television commercial today dubbed "Circus." The ad spotlights the characters in the race, from Schwarzenegger to pornographer Larry Flynt. It ends with the line, "When the laughs are over, Californians will have to live with the outcome." The spot will run in Sacramento, Bakersfield, Fresno, and Chico.

For the most part, we've seen the recall candidates meeting and greeting voters in California's larger cities. But how is the free- for-all playing in other parts of the state?

CNN's Miguel Marquez went to Death Valley to find out.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Take the government back.

CROWD: No on the recall! No on the recall! MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Death Valley, the mercury hit 128 this summer, maybe the only thing hotter, the California recall.

MARTA BECKET, CALIFORNIA RESIDENT: I think the recall will hopefully make a difference. The way things are going, it's hopeless.

MARQUEZ: Marta Becket knows something about hope. For 35 years, she scratched out a living by keeping an old hotel from disappearing and transforming an abandoned theater into an operatic oasis.

BECKET (singing): You can make her do what you want her to. Just give her key a twirl.

MARQUEZ: Her songs echo through Death Valley Junction, population two. Though Becket exists in an extreme landscape and gets by in a self-created economy, she believes the recall brings the promise of lower taxes.

BECKET: I don't look forward to big changes, that it will be great, but at least there's hope that there will be some changes.

MARQUEZ: David Washum moved to Shoshone four years ago. He runs an Internet cafe. He says business is good, but the cost of electricity because of the energy crisis three years ago bites into profits.

DAVIS WASHUM, CALIFORNIA RESIDENT: The power situation affects a small business like mine to the degree where my power bills are higher than my rent.

MARQUEZ: Even if you aren't from Death Valley or even from this hemisphere, the recall is a common language.

LETTY CALLEBAUT, BELGIAN TOURIST: We know that Arnold Schwarzenegger is running for governor. And then we also heard porno actresses were candidates.

MARQUEZ (on camera): We came here wondering if the heat of the recall was any match whatsoever for the blast furnace called Death Valley. What we found, the oddity of the recall may be best served when baked in California's largest oven.

Miguel Marquez, CNN, at the lowest point in the United States, Death Valley, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Gubernatorial Race>


Aired September 9, 2003 - 15:02   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Another Republican is getting out of Arnold Schwarzenegger's way in the California recall campaign. Peter Ueberroth is expected to make the announcement about an hour from now. And we will carry it live.
But right now, we want to go to Bob Franken in Los Angeles -- Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: According to a variety of sources, Ueberroth says he is not going to endorse a candidate right now, wants to meet with the other candidates to discuss job creation. That includes the Democrats, if they want to meet with him.

Ueberroth is pulling out, however. He's been mired way down in the polls. As a matter of fact, a Field poll that was just conducted showed that he had 5 percent, vs. Arnold Schwarzenegger, for instance, at 25 percent. You can also see conservative Tom McClintock, the other major Republican, at 13 percent. So the question, of course, becomes, where will the votes for Ueberroth go?

And the Field poll is going to put out a revised version tomorrow based on the same interviews which will try and answer that question. But there are reactions coming in from the other campaigns, starting with the Schwarzenegger campaign. A spokesman for Schwarzenegger said: "We would like to accept Mr. Ueberroth's invitation to hold that meeting. He has been running a positive campaign based upon the issues. And Arnold looks forward to meeting him to discuss how the two can team up to create jobs and turn California's budget around."

Now, the other Republican, who is the one who is considered the conservative, Tom McClintock, called Peter Ueberroth -- quote -- "a decent, honorable man whose absence in the California gubernatorial race will be felt."

And, yes, we do have a reaction from the campaign of Governor Gray Davis from the spokesman Peter Ragone, who says: "It looks like the Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign is strong-arming other Republicans. And we think, if Republicans coalesce around Arnold and McClintock, Dems and independents are going to rally against the recall."

The question is, exactly where will the votes go? We will probably have a better idea, Candy, when the Field poll comes out tomorrow. But, of course, this is such an unusual election, it's really hard to make any predictions -- Candy.

CROWLEY: Thanks very much, Bob Franken out in L.A. for us. Thanks, bob.

With Peter Ueberroth getting out, Tom McClintock now is the main target of GOP pressure to call it quits. According to the new Field poll, look what would happen if the conservative McClintock were to drop out. Schwarzenegger moves into first place by a hair. While the Field poll shows support for the recall has dipped, a majority of likely California voters still favor ousting Gray Davis.

Joining me now, the director of the Field Poll, Mark DiCamillo.

Thanks so much for joining us, Mark. We appreciate it.

MARK DICAMILLO, DIRECTOR, THE FIELD POLL: Good afternoon.

CROWLEY: I want to ask you right off the bat about Governor Gray Davis' numbers. As compared to last month, those who seem to support the recall have faded a little. Is there a trajectory here that's positive for him or is that a blip?

DICAMILLO: Well, we have taken four polls now. And this is the first poll where he has actually improved his standing. In each of the three preceding polls, in each poll, he was getting worse numbers.

So at least he stopped the bleeding. It's a marginal gain, though. He has only picked up three points. It was 58 percent in August. It's 55 percent now. He's still got a ways to go. And most of the vote on the yes/no vote on the Davis recall is very solid. At least that's what voters are saying; 94 percent say they are very certain about their choice. They have a very strong opinion about Gray Davis. So it's going to be a challenge for him to make up the remaining ground.

CROWLEY: Now, let me ask you about Peter Ueberroth and his getting out and how that affects -- can you look at the polls that you took prior to the news that Ueberroth would pull out and tell us who that might affect most?

DICAMILLO: We are going to do that this afternoon. We actually ask all voters in the polls who their first preference is and then if they have a second preference. And so we will look at those who supported Ueberroth as their first choice and look at their second choice and allocate his supporters among the other candidates. Again, that should be out tomorrow in the 6:00 a.m. hour.

CROWLEY: So tell me, when you looked at the numbers, what most struck you as different or unusual. Did anything sort of stand out?

DICAMILLO: Well, even with the intense media focus on this particular race, I was struck by how stable the numbers have been. We only saw a three-point shift in the governor on the yes/no vote for Davis, from 58 to 55.

And then, on the replacement ballot, we had a three-point Bustamante advantage in August. It's now five points, very similar kinds of numbers, not a lot of wild gyration going on, although with candidates dropping out, that could have an effect. Between the last poll and this poll, Bill Simon dropped out. What struck me was that Schwarzenegger didn't really benefit all that much from that. Actually, McClintock seemed to be more of a beneficiary of Simon dropping out than Schwarzenegger.

CROWLEY: Which may be why we see the Republicans pushing McClintock.

I want to ask you about the poll itself and polls in general. You have never polled anything like this before in this race. Do you think sort of look at these polls and think, boy, here's how it is right this second? Or do you think that there's a chance that these polls are just dead wrong because we don't know who is going to come out and vote?

DICAMILLO: Well, I think we have a pretty good idea who is coming out and voting. That's really part of the poll.

We ask voters what their intent is, what their interest is, what their past voting history is. And, usually, those indicators are pretty reliable in terms of gauging with who is likely to vote. So, no, I think this particular election has some unique properties. I think there's this interaction effect which I have never seen before between how one feels about one side of the ballot and how one votes on the other side.

Really, it matters how people feel about the replacement candidates as to how they will look at the first side on the yes/no. If they have an appealing replacement candidate in mind, I think they are more inclined to vote to recall the governor. And in the current poll, it seems that most of the voters think the replacement candidates would do a better job than Davis. If that continues, I think Davis has real problems.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll. We appreciate your expertise.

Governor Davis launches a new television commercial today dubbed "Circus." The ad spotlights the characters in the race, from Schwarzenegger to pornographer Larry Flynt. It ends with the line, "When the laughs are over, Californians will have to live with the outcome." The spot will run in Sacramento, Bakersfield, Fresno, and Chico.

For the most part, we've seen the recall candidates meeting and greeting voters in California's larger cities. But how is the free- for-all playing in other parts of the state?

CNN's Miguel Marquez went to Death Valley to find out.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Take the government back.

CROWD: No on the recall! No on the recall! MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Death Valley, the mercury hit 128 this summer, maybe the only thing hotter, the California recall.

MARTA BECKET, CALIFORNIA RESIDENT: I think the recall will hopefully make a difference. The way things are going, it's hopeless.

MARQUEZ: Marta Becket knows something about hope. For 35 years, she scratched out a living by keeping an old hotel from disappearing and transforming an abandoned theater into an operatic oasis.

BECKET (singing): You can make her do what you want her to. Just give her key a twirl.

MARQUEZ: Her songs echo through Death Valley Junction, population two. Though Becket exists in an extreme landscape and gets by in a self-created economy, she believes the recall brings the promise of lower taxes.

BECKET: I don't look forward to big changes, that it will be great, but at least there's hope that there will be some changes.

MARQUEZ: David Washum moved to Shoshone four years ago. He runs an Internet cafe. He says business is good, but the cost of electricity because of the energy crisis three years ago bites into profits.

DAVIS WASHUM, CALIFORNIA RESIDENT: The power situation affects a small business like mine to the degree where my power bills are higher than my rent.

MARQUEZ: Even if you aren't from Death Valley or even from this hemisphere, the recall is a common language.

LETTY CALLEBAUT, BELGIAN TOURIST: We know that Arnold Schwarzenegger is running for governor. And then we also heard porno actresses were candidates.

MARQUEZ (on camera): We came here wondering if the heat of the recall was any match whatsoever for the blast furnace called Death Valley. What we found, the oddity of the recall may be best served when baked in California's largest oven.

Miguel Marquez, CNN, at the lowest point in the United States, Death Valley, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Gubernatorial Race>