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Poll Shows Davis May Keep Job

Aired September 12, 2003 - 14:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: California recall time. A new poll is out with some numbers that put a gleam in Governor Gray Davis' eyes. Has Cruz Bustamante gritting his teeth as well. And it might take some muscle out of Arnold Schwarzenegger's early showing perhaps.
CNN's correspondent Bob Franken is tracking the numbers as he continues his endless recall assignment in Los Angeles. Hello, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you've taken all the intrigue out of all this.

(LAUGHTER)

FRANKEN: First of all, this is a plus or minus 3 percent variance poll by "The Los Angeles Time," last poll, three months ago. And what it shows is that there's a statistically insignificant difference between those who favor the recall and those who are opposed.

According to the poll, 50 percent favor the recall of Governor Gray Davis, 47 percent oppose with 3 percent undecided. Now what is most interesting about this is that Gray Davis, A -- has not deteriorated, but, B -- is improving what is a crummy position.

They asked about unfavorable impressions of Davis. In the last poll, it was at 72 percent. He has now approved to a 63 percent unfavorable. And his campaign people saying that this represents an upward trend, just as they're getting ready for a very good week with former president Bill Clinton, among others, coming in to campaign against the recall.

Now as far as the recall alternatives are concerned, there is bad news for the other Democrat, Lieutenant Government Cruz Bustamante. His unfavorables have jumped significantly. But also, his margin over the other candidates has deteriorated, just a little bit. He now has a 30 percent rate of people who say they're going to vote for him, that's down 5 percent. And as I said, the unfavorable is way up, 50 percent now, up from 29 percent.

Arnold Schwarzenegger is at a 25 percent margin, up 3. The big one, the big jump is Tom McClintock, the conservative Republican, who went up 6 points to 18 percent, leading many to believe that he is going to dig in his heels and resist any efforts for him to pull out of the race -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, just clarify one point for me, Bob. This is -- these are all numbers that reflect Ueberroth being out.

FRANKEN: As a matter of fact, only partially that. The poll was conducted partially when Peter Ueberroth was still in. And in fact it shows that he had an 8 percent reading, which is higher than he had before.

O'BRIEN: So it's still kind of unclear, then, as to where those voters are headed right now?

FRANKEN: It is so volatile here. Of course, it's a circumstance that would make it volatile. People are intrigued by all this but quite frankly, they're totally confused, too.

O'BRIEN: I imagine that. All right now Schwarzenegger, as I understand it, called in a radio station, happened -- it just so happened that his Republican opponent was there. Explain this one.

FRANKEN: Well, that's what we call an ambush.

O'BRIEN: Is that what they call it? Yes.

FRANKEN: Schwarzenegger called into a Sacramento radio station and surprise, surprise, the conservative Tom McClintock was there who immediately said, Why don't we debate at this weekend's Republican convention? Schwarzenegger replied, he'd be more than happy to debate, but only at the right time, which of course is taken to mean September 24.

But McClintock persisted and finally Schwarzenegger said no, he would not debate. It was probably not one of Schwarzenegger's most successful radio call-ins.

O'BRIEN: People might accuse him of being a girly man there, if he doesn't want to debate. He will eventually have to answer the criticism he's not willing to step up to the table there with only one debate committed to.

FRANKEN: He's going to be criticized for that and has been. But his campaign people believe one debate is plenty.

One other thing by the way, this could all be moot if a three- judge federal appeals panel decides the recall should be delayed. You'll remember the lawsuit turned down in a lower court.

Yesterday there was a hearing. The judges were sympathetic to the position that because six counties still use the discredited punch card ballots -- we all remember those -- they would be disenfranchised. We're waiting for a ruling from them.

O'BRIEN: Oh boy, all right. Let's see what happens there. We certainly don't want to go through chad part 2. Do we?

All right, Bob Franken, good job out there. Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Aired September 12, 2003 - 14:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: California recall time. A new poll is out with some numbers that put a gleam in Governor Gray Davis' eyes. Has Cruz Bustamante gritting his teeth as well. And it might take some muscle out of Arnold Schwarzenegger's early showing perhaps.
CNN's correspondent Bob Franken is tracking the numbers as he continues his endless recall assignment in Los Angeles. Hello, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you've taken all the intrigue out of all this.

(LAUGHTER)

FRANKEN: First of all, this is a plus or minus 3 percent variance poll by "The Los Angeles Time," last poll, three months ago. And what it shows is that there's a statistically insignificant difference between those who favor the recall and those who are opposed.

According to the poll, 50 percent favor the recall of Governor Gray Davis, 47 percent oppose with 3 percent undecided. Now what is most interesting about this is that Gray Davis, A -- has not deteriorated, but, B -- is improving what is a crummy position.

They asked about unfavorable impressions of Davis. In the last poll, it was at 72 percent. He has now approved to a 63 percent unfavorable. And his campaign people saying that this represents an upward trend, just as they're getting ready for a very good week with former president Bill Clinton, among others, coming in to campaign against the recall.

Now as far as the recall alternatives are concerned, there is bad news for the other Democrat, Lieutenant Government Cruz Bustamante. His unfavorables have jumped significantly. But also, his margin over the other candidates has deteriorated, just a little bit. He now has a 30 percent rate of people who say they're going to vote for him, that's down 5 percent. And as I said, the unfavorable is way up, 50 percent now, up from 29 percent.

Arnold Schwarzenegger is at a 25 percent margin, up 3. The big one, the big jump is Tom McClintock, the conservative Republican, who went up 6 points to 18 percent, leading many to believe that he is going to dig in his heels and resist any efforts for him to pull out of the race -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, just clarify one point for me, Bob. This is -- these are all numbers that reflect Ueberroth being out.

FRANKEN: As a matter of fact, only partially that. The poll was conducted partially when Peter Ueberroth was still in. And in fact it shows that he had an 8 percent reading, which is higher than he had before.

O'BRIEN: So it's still kind of unclear, then, as to where those voters are headed right now?

FRANKEN: It is so volatile here. Of course, it's a circumstance that would make it volatile. People are intrigued by all this but quite frankly, they're totally confused, too.

O'BRIEN: I imagine that. All right now Schwarzenegger, as I understand it, called in a radio station, happened -- it just so happened that his Republican opponent was there. Explain this one.

FRANKEN: Well, that's what we call an ambush.

O'BRIEN: Is that what they call it? Yes.

FRANKEN: Schwarzenegger called into a Sacramento radio station and surprise, surprise, the conservative Tom McClintock was there who immediately said, Why don't we debate at this weekend's Republican convention? Schwarzenegger replied, he'd be more than happy to debate, but only at the right time, which of course is taken to mean September 24.

But McClintock persisted and finally Schwarzenegger said no, he would not debate. It was probably not one of Schwarzenegger's most successful radio call-ins.

O'BRIEN: People might accuse him of being a girly man there, if he doesn't want to debate. He will eventually have to answer the criticism he's not willing to step up to the table there with only one debate committed to.

FRANKEN: He's going to be criticized for that and has been. But his campaign people believe one debate is plenty.

One other thing by the way, this could all be moot if a three- judge federal appeals panel decides the recall should be delayed. You'll remember the lawsuit turned down in a lower court.

Yesterday there was a hearing. The judges were sympathetic to the position that because six counties still use the discredited punch card ballots -- we all remember those -- they would be disenfranchised. We're waiting for a ruling from them.

O'BRIEN: Oh boy, all right. Let's see what happens there. We certainly don't want to go through chad part 2. Do we?

All right, Bob Franken, good job out there. Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com