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California Recall: New Poll Results

Aired September 22, 2003 - 15:13   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Well, there's a new poll that finds the recall effort is still no laughing matter for Governor Gray Davis. The survey finds 53 percent of likely voters want to recall Davis, still enough to remove him, but that is down now 5 percent -- five points, that is, since last month. Forty-two percent say they want Davis to stay. Among those hoping to replace Davis, Cruz Bustamante led with 28 percent, Arnold Schwarzenegger right behind with 26 percent. State Senator Tom McClintock had 14 percent.
And with me now to talk more about the poll and the recall race, Mark Baldassare. He is Director of Research at the Public Policy Institute of California. That's the group that conducted these polls.

Mark, for whom is there good news in this latest poll?

MARK BALDASSARE, PPIC RESEARCH DIRECTOR: A little bit of good news for Gray Davis, certainly not great news because he's still -- a majority of voters still want to recall him, but he's seen an improvement in three key groups. Democrats are moving against the recall, and now two-thirds of Democrats say they would vote to keep Davis. And...

WOODRUFF: And we can show those numbers in fact. Go ahead, yes.

BALDASSARE: OK. And importantly, Latino voters are now divided on the recall. And our earlier survey indicated that most Latinos supported the recall. And perhaps most significantly, in California politics, independent voters who make up about one out of six voters are now evenly divided on the recall. Only a third of independent voters said that they wanted to keep the governor a month ago. So that's where all the change is occurring. The governor is still certainly at risk, but we can begin to see some hints about how he might be able to pull this out.

WOODRUFF: So in other words, with those three groups, with Democrats rallying behind him, with the independents coming around, Latinos, you're saying there may be enough there for him to beat this recall?

BALDASSARE: He'd have to keep -- he'd have to keep this kind of momentum with those three groups.

Republican voters, they haven't changed their minds and they are not likely to. About 9 out of 10 Republican voters in our state say they want -- they want to remove the governor. That hasn't changed over time. That's not likely to change. But that's not enough. He's -- it would be -- have to be some share of Democratic voters and independent voters, particularly independent voters, I think, that would be enough votes to recall the governor. So we'll see whether opinions keep shifting in the direction they are today.

WOODRUFF: Mark, there's an election official in Contra Costa County, a man named Stephen Weir, who is quoted as saying, "People just want this thing over. The mood seems to have a life of its own. There is no directing it, no spinning it." Is there some fatigue with this whole recall or not? What are you finding?

BALDASSARE: We're finding that 92 percent of Californians are saying that they're very or fairly closely following the news. That was actually up from a month ago. So there's tremendous interest in it.

But more Californians are now saying that they don't think that the current recall is an appropriate use of the recall process. Voters are now evenly divided on that question. And many voters are finding that the system of the recall itself has problems and is in need of major changes. And those are two factors that are actually also in some ways helping the governor, because the people who feel that the -- that this is an inappropriate use of the process or that the process itself needs major or minor changes are saying that they want to keep the governor.

WOODRUFF: And that presumably prevails whether it's next week, or rather, October the 7 or next March?

BALDASSARE: That's right.

WOODRUFF: All right. Mark Baldassare, thanks very much.

BALDASSARE: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Good to see you. Thank you for talking to us.

BALDASSARE: Good to see you, too. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com








Aired September 22, 2003 - 15:13   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Well, there's a new poll that finds the recall effort is still no laughing matter for Governor Gray Davis. The survey finds 53 percent of likely voters want to recall Davis, still enough to remove him, but that is down now 5 percent -- five points, that is, since last month. Forty-two percent say they want Davis to stay. Among those hoping to replace Davis, Cruz Bustamante led with 28 percent, Arnold Schwarzenegger right behind with 26 percent. State Senator Tom McClintock had 14 percent.
And with me now to talk more about the poll and the recall race, Mark Baldassare. He is Director of Research at the Public Policy Institute of California. That's the group that conducted these polls.

Mark, for whom is there good news in this latest poll?

MARK BALDASSARE, PPIC RESEARCH DIRECTOR: A little bit of good news for Gray Davis, certainly not great news because he's still -- a majority of voters still want to recall him, but he's seen an improvement in three key groups. Democrats are moving against the recall, and now two-thirds of Democrats say they would vote to keep Davis. And...

WOODRUFF: And we can show those numbers in fact. Go ahead, yes.

BALDASSARE: OK. And importantly, Latino voters are now divided on the recall. And our earlier survey indicated that most Latinos supported the recall. And perhaps most significantly, in California politics, independent voters who make up about one out of six voters are now evenly divided on the recall. Only a third of independent voters said that they wanted to keep the governor a month ago. So that's where all the change is occurring. The governor is still certainly at risk, but we can begin to see some hints about how he might be able to pull this out.

WOODRUFF: So in other words, with those three groups, with Democrats rallying behind him, with the independents coming around, Latinos, you're saying there may be enough there for him to beat this recall?

BALDASSARE: He'd have to keep -- he'd have to keep this kind of momentum with those three groups.

Republican voters, they haven't changed their minds and they are not likely to. About 9 out of 10 Republican voters in our state say they want -- they want to remove the governor. That hasn't changed over time. That's not likely to change. But that's not enough. He's -- it would be -- have to be some share of Democratic voters and independent voters, particularly independent voters, I think, that would be enough votes to recall the governor. So we'll see whether opinions keep shifting in the direction they are today.

WOODRUFF: Mark, there's an election official in Contra Costa County, a man named Stephen Weir, who is quoted as saying, "People just want this thing over. The mood seems to have a life of its own. There is no directing it, no spinning it." Is there some fatigue with this whole recall or not? What are you finding?

BALDASSARE: We're finding that 92 percent of Californians are saying that they're very or fairly closely following the news. That was actually up from a month ago. So there's tremendous interest in it.

But more Californians are now saying that they don't think that the current recall is an appropriate use of the recall process. Voters are now evenly divided on that question. And many voters are finding that the system of the recall itself has problems and is in need of major changes. And those are two factors that are actually also in some ways helping the governor, because the people who feel that the -- that this is an inappropriate use of the process or that the process itself needs major or minor changes are saying that they want to keep the governor.

WOODRUFF: And that presumably prevails whether it's next week, or rather, October the 7 or next March?

BALDASSARE: That's right.

WOODRUFF: All right. Mark Baldassare, thanks very much.

BALDASSARE: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Good to see you. Thank you for talking to us.

BALDASSARE: Good to see you, too. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com