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California Recall Dynamics

Aired September 25, 2003 - 15:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: Longtime Republican strategist Dan Schnur was most recently an adviser to Peter Ueberroth's recall campaign.
I spoke to Dan a bit earlier. And I began by asking him if he thought last night's debate had changed the dynamics of the race?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN SCHNUR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Only one thing could happen in the debate last night.

And that was that California voters could come to a conclusion about Arnold Schwarzenegger. And I think what happened last night is, Arnold won, not by performing in an extraordinary way, but simply by not losing. While he was not dazzling, he did manage to convince, I think, most voters that he had a command and a familiarity with California public policy and governance. And right now, for Arnold, that's enough.

KING: Well, if that is enough and Arnold -- quote, unquote -- "won" in the view of Republicans, how much intense now will the effort get on Tom McClintock to get out? And let me ask it to you this way. Congressman Darrell Issa, who, of course, spearheaded the recall, he is to endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger. And there are who there are plans in the works for Bill Simon and for Peter Ueberroth endorse as well.

A, will that happen, and, B, what effect might it have?

SCHNUR: Well, Peter is currently out of state and has no plans to make a decision or to endorse until early next week, at the soonest.

More broadly, though, Tom McClintock told "The Sacramento Bee" a couple of weeks ago that, if it came close to the election and it became clear that another Republican candidate had a much better chance of winning than he did, that, while he would not get out of the race, he would urge his supporters to instead vote for that candidate with a better chance of winning.

The danger of forcing McClintock out of the race altogether is, there's a significant base of conservatives within the party who would be angry enough at that decision that they could vote against the recall. So, in a lot of ways, McClintock staying in, but sending that sort of message to his most loyal supporters is probably in Schwarzenegger's best interests. KING: Well, at the beginning of this, there was this great wonder if the Democrats were being too confusing, vote no on the recall, yes on Bustamante. Aren't you asking a lot there if you keep Tom McClintock in the race, on the ballot, campaigning, but then you say, hey, there he is, but don't vote for him?

SCHNUR: The practical effect of it I think would be that Tom would still draw some support, but not nearly as much as he's drawing now. And between Schwarzenegger losing some Republican votes to McClintock and Bustamante losing some Democratic votes to Huffington and Camejo, the net result would probably be a wash for both front- running candidates.

KING: Some Republicans are making a big deal this morning that they say Lieutenant Governor Bustamante conceded a key point that overspending by Governor Davis is part of the California fiscal mess. Any impact on the race from that, do you see?

SCHNUR: I don't see much impact on the race there.

Most Californians I think are pretty well familiar with the fact that the state has been spending well beyond its means for the last few years. What's much more interesting moving forward, I think, is going to be this war that's starting over the question of Indian gaming. The Schwarzenegger campaign has gone up with a couple of very hard-hitting ads against candidates, Bustamante, McClintock, and Davis, who have taken a great deal of money from the tribes.

The tribes are probably the most well-financed special interest in California. My guess is, you'll see them hitting back pretty hard and pretty ugly over the next several days.

KING: I think 12 days left, by my math. Dan Schnur, you're quoted in the newspaper this morning as offering your begrudging respect for the Gray Davis political team. With 12 days left, your best bet: Will Governor Davis find a way to beat this recall?

SCHNUR: It's a tough road for Gray Davis to hoe, but he has got one good chance left. The nastier this campaign gets between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante, the more negative and uglier it gets, the better chances Davis' chances become.

In most campaigns, when things get really, really nasty, all it does is drive down voter turnout. But in a recall situation, that's the sort of thing that could make voters go back to Davis, instead of one of the potential replacement candidates.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com








Aired September 25, 2003 - 15:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: Longtime Republican strategist Dan Schnur was most recently an adviser to Peter Ueberroth's recall campaign.
I spoke to Dan a bit earlier. And I began by asking him if he thought last night's debate had changed the dynamics of the race?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN SCHNUR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Only one thing could happen in the debate last night.

And that was that California voters could come to a conclusion about Arnold Schwarzenegger. And I think what happened last night is, Arnold won, not by performing in an extraordinary way, but simply by not losing. While he was not dazzling, he did manage to convince, I think, most voters that he had a command and a familiarity with California public policy and governance. And right now, for Arnold, that's enough.

KING: Well, if that is enough and Arnold -- quote, unquote -- "won" in the view of Republicans, how much intense now will the effort get on Tom McClintock to get out? And let me ask it to you this way. Congressman Darrell Issa, who, of course, spearheaded the recall, he is to endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger. And there are who there are plans in the works for Bill Simon and for Peter Ueberroth endorse as well.

A, will that happen, and, B, what effect might it have?

SCHNUR: Well, Peter is currently out of state and has no plans to make a decision or to endorse until early next week, at the soonest.

More broadly, though, Tom McClintock told "The Sacramento Bee" a couple of weeks ago that, if it came close to the election and it became clear that another Republican candidate had a much better chance of winning than he did, that, while he would not get out of the race, he would urge his supporters to instead vote for that candidate with a better chance of winning.

The danger of forcing McClintock out of the race altogether is, there's a significant base of conservatives within the party who would be angry enough at that decision that they could vote against the recall. So, in a lot of ways, McClintock staying in, but sending that sort of message to his most loyal supporters is probably in Schwarzenegger's best interests. KING: Well, at the beginning of this, there was this great wonder if the Democrats were being too confusing, vote no on the recall, yes on Bustamante. Aren't you asking a lot there if you keep Tom McClintock in the race, on the ballot, campaigning, but then you say, hey, there he is, but don't vote for him?

SCHNUR: The practical effect of it I think would be that Tom would still draw some support, but not nearly as much as he's drawing now. And between Schwarzenegger losing some Republican votes to McClintock and Bustamante losing some Democratic votes to Huffington and Camejo, the net result would probably be a wash for both front- running candidates.

KING: Some Republicans are making a big deal this morning that they say Lieutenant Governor Bustamante conceded a key point that overspending by Governor Davis is part of the California fiscal mess. Any impact on the race from that, do you see?

SCHNUR: I don't see much impact on the race there.

Most Californians I think are pretty well familiar with the fact that the state has been spending well beyond its means for the last few years. What's much more interesting moving forward, I think, is going to be this war that's starting over the question of Indian gaming. The Schwarzenegger campaign has gone up with a couple of very hard-hitting ads against candidates, Bustamante, McClintock, and Davis, who have taken a great deal of money from the tribes.

The tribes are probably the most well-financed special interest in California. My guess is, you'll see them hitting back pretty hard and pretty ugly over the next several days.

KING: I think 12 days left, by my math. Dan Schnur, you're quoted in the newspaper this morning as offering your begrudging respect for the Gray Davis political team. With 12 days left, your best bet: Will Governor Davis find a way to beat this recall?

SCHNUR: It's a tough road for Gray Davis to hoe, but he has got one good chance left. The nastier this campaign gets between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante, the more negative and uglier it gets, the better chances Davis' chances become.

In most campaigns, when things get really, really nasty, all it does is drive down voter turnout. But in a recall situation, that's the sort of thing that could make voters go back to Davis, instead of one of the potential replacement candidates.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com