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New Poll Shows Schwarzenegger Ahead
Aired September 29, 2003 - 13:10 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Now to the California recall race where Arnold Schwarzenegger is rolling up his shirt sleeves, revealing his prodigious guns and warning supporters to watch out for attack ads from what he calls a "desperate Governor Gray Davis."
Meanwhile, a new poll shows big gains for Schwarzenegger. Our Bob Franken, still in L.A., with more on all this. Hello, Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello. The attack ad -- the debate is "You did it first. No, you did it first." The Schwarzenegger campaign is complaining about Gray Davis. Saying he's reverting to form with his attack ads. The Gray Davis campaign says Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign started it. So you get the idea of just how crazy this is. Not a surprise for those of us who were following this.
And the poll is showing really quite a mood swing among the people of California, at least compared to some other poll. This is the CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll that came out over the weekend and it's rattling a lot of pages, certainly, in the Gray Davis camp where the governor is fighting to avoid a recall. But this poll shows that those favoring the recall are 63 percent, no 35 percent. There's a plus or minus margin of error of four points, by the way, in this poll.
When you get to the recall selection, Arnold Schwarzenegger, according to this poll, has opened what can only be called a huge lead, 40 percent over the second person, the Democrat Cruz Bustamante. Tom McClintock at 18 percent, pretty much where he's been throughout.
Of course, there's been a lot of discussion about whether McClintock should pull out to make things easier for Arnold Schwarzenegger. There are going to be more endorsement possibilities today. The State Party Governing Council, the GOP is holding meetings amid some indications it will come out with an endorsement for Schwarzenegger.
If this poll is accurate, it shows that there's been really a trend opposite from the other polls. The thing that should be pointed out, and the people who did this poll for CNN, "USA Today" and Gallup point out that this is a snapshot, the way it is today in an extremely volatile election, one that changes moment to moment.
Also, we're talking about a poll that doesn't really have any predecessors to model on because there are 135 candidates on that recall ballot, of course. And of course, the term that was used to describe those who would make up this poll were "probable voters" who is unlike the likely voters described in other polls. The question is how does one describe a probable vote?
So it's really just like the typical day in California with the story of the roller coaster -- Miles?
O'BRIEN: All right, Bob Franken out in La-La land. Thank you very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 29, 2003 - 13:10 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Now to the California recall race where Arnold Schwarzenegger is rolling up his shirt sleeves, revealing his prodigious guns and warning supporters to watch out for attack ads from what he calls a "desperate Governor Gray Davis."
Meanwhile, a new poll shows big gains for Schwarzenegger. Our Bob Franken, still in L.A., with more on all this. Hello, Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello. The attack ad -- the debate is "You did it first. No, you did it first." The Schwarzenegger campaign is complaining about Gray Davis. Saying he's reverting to form with his attack ads. The Gray Davis campaign says Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign started it. So you get the idea of just how crazy this is. Not a surprise for those of us who were following this.
And the poll is showing really quite a mood swing among the people of California, at least compared to some other poll. This is the CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll that came out over the weekend and it's rattling a lot of pages, certainly, in the Gray Davis camp where the governor is fighting to avoid a recall. But this poll shows that those favoring the recall are 63 percent, no 35 percent. There's a plus or minus margin of error of four points, by the way, in this poll.
When you get to the recall selection, Arnold Schwarzenegger, according to this poll, has opened what can only be called a huge lead, 40 percent over the second person, the Democrat Cruz Bustamante. Tom McClintock at 18 percent, pretty much where he's been throughout.
Of course, there's been a lot of discussion about whether McClintock should pull out to make things easier for Arnold Schwarzenegger. There are going to be more endorsement possibilities today. The State Party Governing Council, the GOP is holding meetings amid some indications it will come out with an endorsement for Schwarzenegger.
If this poll is accurate, it shows that there's been really a trend opposite from the other polls. The thing that should be pointed out, and the people who did this poll for CNN, "USA Today" and Gallup point out that this is a snapshot, the way it is today in an extremely volatile election, one that changes moment to moment.
Also, we're talking about a poll that doesn't really have any predecessors to model on because there are 135 candidates on that recall ballot, of course. And of course, the term that was used to describe those who would make up this poll were "probable voters" who is unlike the likely voters described in other polls. The question is how does one describe a probable vote?
So it's really just like the typical day in California with the story of the roller coaster -- Miles?
O'BRIEN: All right, Bob Franken out in La-La land. Thank you very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
