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California Recall: Final Days, Final Battles

Aired September 29, 2003 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: This hour: California Governor Gray Davis is stumping in Santa Monica, faced with new evidence that he may indeed be voted out of office next week. In our new poll, 63 percent of probable California voters say they will vote "yes" on recalling Davis. That is an increase from other recent surveys. Thirty-five percent say they will vote to keep the Democrat in office.
In the race to replace Davis, 40 percent of probable voters say they support Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now, that puts him 15 points ahead of his nearest rival, Democrat Cruz Bustamante. With those numbers in mind, let's go to CNN's Bob Franken on the rough and tumble of the race, with just eight days until the recall election.

Bob, what is the Gray Davis camp saying about these latest poll numbers, and what are they going to do?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're saying it's a joke. Now, you called it a recall free-for-all a moment ago. And, of course, it's hard to predict exactly what's going to happen in a free-for-all. But the polls are trying to quantify that.

And the people who put together the polls for CNN and "USA Today," the Gallup people, acknowledged that trying to define probable voters -- not likely voters -- probable voters is really just an exercise in educated experience. But the experience, of course, is somewhat limited in this with its 135 people on the ballot.

But it does show, nevertheless, that Gray Davis is in big trouble with the poll results that you showed, and that Arnold Schwarzenegger is surging just quite a bit right now, if this poll, in fact, is to be continued. Everybodying acknowledges it's a snapshot. All of those caveats are why Schwarzenegger is being very, very careful in his reaction.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Have questions about an in Arnold Schwarzenegger? So do a lot of people. He ducks tough questions. Didn't vote in 13 of the last 21 elections. And now he refuses to debate the governor he's trying to replace. Vote "no" on the recall.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRANKEN: Well, one of the complaints that the Schwarzenegger people have is that Gray Davis is reverting to his reputation and running negative ads like the one you just saw. The Davis people respond that all they're doing is responding to the attacks by Gray Davis.

At any rate, with all of that intrigued, the Republican Party continues to rally behind Arnold Schwarzenegger. There is going to be a news conference by the board of directors of the party in a couple of hours. And they are going to, we're told, come out and endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger. Just the latest in a whole parade of republicans who are getting behind Schwarzenegger.

As far as Tom McClintock is concerned, if the CNN poll is accurate, he has become less of a problem for the Republicans -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: And, Bob, what about Cruz Bustamante? He's at 25 percent, at least in this poll. What is his campaign saying?

FRANKEN: Well he's -- many Democrats these days are a little disappoint in his performance, saying that he really has failed to catch fire. Of course he's had problems with criticisms over his fund-raising. So they're beginning to count less on him. And, frankly, the Democrats are starting to get quite nervous.

WOODRUFF: All right. Bob Franken watching the recall, every minute of it, out in Los Angeles -- thanks.

And also joining us now from Los Angeles is Gray Davis campaign director, Steve Smith. Steve Smith, not only do we have this new poll, Gallup CNN-"USA Today" showing 63 percent of probable voters are in favor of the recall, you have 75 percent of these probable voters saying they don't approve of the job the governor's doing.

How does the governor pull it out with these kinds of numbers?

STEVE SMITH, DAVIS CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR: Well, actually, the governor's favorability ratings have been low for some time, given the times. But, frankly, with all due respect to your poll, I think it's flawed.

Our own tracking, two Republican polls from over the weekend and three Democrat polls all have the race within about nine or 10 points, with the "yes" being anywhere between 51 and 54 percent, depending on the poll, and the "no" being anywhere in the mid 40s. So I think what we have here is a flawed poll.

What has developed over the last weekend is quite clear, is that the race is really turning into a two-person race, with people deciding on the first ballot whether or not to retain Governor Davis in office, and then on the second ballot, seemingly showing a clear preference for Mr. Schwarzenegger at this point, if it comes to that. We, of course, hope it doesn't come to that and that the first ballot makes the second ballot moot.

WOODRUFF: Well, what about this two-man race issue? Because earlier in the campaign, Governor Davis was saying he would be endorsing someone on the replacement ballot. Cruz Bustamante, who is, of course, counting on that, is now reacting to the governor referring to it as a two-man race and saying -- I'm just quoting what he said over the weekend -- he said, "It's really too bad. I had hoped we would be able to come together."

Has the governor pretty much left Mr. Bustamante high and dry here?

SMITH: No. I just think the governor is focused on the first ballot, on the "yes" or "no" question on whether the governor will be retained. And essentially warnings voters of what the alternative would be should Arnold Schwarzenegger be elected.

WOODRUFF: What about -- let me ask you one other point here about -- in this poll. We asked people about approval, disapproval. We also asked -- in the CNN poll, we asked California voters, part of the Davis strategy has been to suggest that this whole recall effort is part of a national Republican effort to undo the results of elections. In other words, to get Democrats out of office. But when the voters were asked that question, two-thirds of them said they don't agree with that characterization.

SMITH: Well, I think there's ample evidence from a variety of sources that, in fact, this is part of a national Republican strategy. And a Republican strategy, a conservative Republican strategy right here in the state of California.

They obviously lost last November's elections. They don't like the kind of policies of pursuing expansion of the Healthy Children's Program. You know, test scores in the schools are up five years in a row. A number of those things they're uncomfortable with, and so they're essentially trying to change the outcome of last November's election.

WOODRUFF: Some people are also saying, Steve Smith, that it's going to hurt Governor Davis to be running these negative ads towards Arnold Schwarzenegger. Why do you think that's a winning strategy for the governor?

SMITH: Frankly, we didn't start running the so-called negative ads until Mr. Schwarzenegger began running negative ads against the governor. But at that point, we felt like we had to set the record straight.

Really, the way to settle all of this is for the two of them to debate. The governor has been asking now for several days, since it's clearly boiled down to the two-man race, that the two of them, in an open session, without any prepared questions, have a debate and discuss the issues with each other and with the California electorate. And that's important that that happen between now and next Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: And so far, the Schwarzenegger campaign is saying no. But we'll see. We still have eight days to go.

SMITH: Hopefully they'll come to their senses.

WOODRUFF: All right. Steve Smith, campaign director for Governor Gray Davis. Good to see you, Steve. Thank you very much for talking with us. We appreciate it. Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger is holding another town hall meeting later today as he tries to appear above the recall fray, you might say. The governor says he plans to reach out to voters in the final week of campaigning while he charges, Governor Davis, as you just heard, alleged, is going negative.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I think it's to be expected that when the polls look bad for Davis and good for me that he will just go and start campaigning the traditional way, which is negative campaigning and all that stuff. I mean, that's the only way he can do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: We just heard Steve Smith of the Davis campaign responding to that. And in a new boost for Schwarzenegger's campaign, he got the endorsement today of the Republican leader of the California State Assembly. And state Republican Party leaders are also considering whether to back Schwarzenegger. They're going to announce their decision later on today.

Well, if it's any consolation for Governor Davis, a number of major California newspapers have editorialized against the recall. The "Los Angeles Times," for one, warned that a vote to oust Davis could open the floodgates for future recalls. In its Sunday edition, "The Times" said, "Recall might feel good, but it would cause the worst political hangover California has ever had."

At least one major newspaper, the "San Diego Union Tribune," is urging a "yes" vote on the recall, because it says that Davis is "a failed governor." The "Tribune" endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger to replace Davis.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: As we approach the final week of the California recall campaign, I'm joined by two reporters keeping a close eye on the race. Our political analysts, Ron Brownstein, of the "Los Angeles Times," he's here with me in Washington. And Dion Nissenbaum is in Sacramento. He is a political reporter for the "San Jose Mercury News."

Dion Nissenbaum, to you first. We just heard Steve Smith, who is Davis' campaign director, tell me the poll that we've been reporting is flawed. Whether that is the case or not, how much trouble is Governor Davis in?

DION NISSENBAUM, "SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS": Well, clearly, he's got a long way to go between now and next Tuesday. What's interesting about your poll is that even -- if you just take a look at the registered voter numbers in your poll, they line up pretty closely with all of the other polls out here.

There's pretty much a 13 to 14-point spread between "yes" and "no". And I think the number that really matters for the governor is that he's had a hard time getting more than 40 percent of the voters to vote "no" on the recall. And you have a -- just a week left to turn that around. It's a big challenge.

WOODRUFF: Ron Brownstein, can Davis survive this?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELEST TIMES": Very, difficult, Judy. I mean, I agree with what Dion said. I mean, if you look at your registered voter numbers, it's very similar to what both campaigns seem to be in the ballpark (UNINTELLIGIBLE) other recent polls have. And that is Davis somewhere in the low 40s on getting voters to oppose the recall.

Look, when he won reelection in 2002, he only won 47 percent of the vote. So, in effect, he has to do better now at a time when conditions are worse to get to 50 percent.

I mean, maybe the best indicator, better than any of the polls, is the fact that they have gone out so aggressively against Schwarzenegger in the last few days. It basically suggests they believe they cannot get to 50 percent by themselves by convincing people that he is worthy of more time. It's more now that they have to convince the people the alternatives are worse.

WOODRUFF: Dion, the governor is now vigorously challenging Schwarzenegger to a debate. Is that going to help the governor by doing this? Presumably, Schwarzenegger is going to continue to say no, although we don't know for sure.

NISSENBAUM: Right. Well, there's not much incentive at this point for Arnold Schwarzenegger to engage the governor in a debate when he seems to have the momentum with him. Arnold Schwarzenegger has come under a lot of fire throughout this campaign for avoiding specifics, avoiding debates, avoiding interviews, including he still hasn't done an interview with the "San Jose Mercury News."

So it does have the potential to hurt him. But if the momentum is still going his way, it's not clear why he would engage the governor in a debate.

WOODRUFF: Ron, do voters care at this point about whether Schwarzenegger debates the governor?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think Schwarzenegger continues to face a certain amount of doubt from a certain amount of voters about whether he's up to the job. I mean, he's not polling at 50 percent, but of course he doesn't have to, Judy. You know the way this works, the plurality on the second ballot is plenty.

And I think that he clearly crossed the threshold for enough Californian in that very heavily watched debate last week to put him in a much stronger position. And, I agree, at this point, there really is very little incentive for him because Davis is trying to make this into a Davis-Schwarzenegger race.

Schwarzenegger doesn't have to do that. He can simply make it into a Schwarzenegger-Bustamante race and let Davis run against himself. And what we've seen is Davis probably can't win that race.

WOODRUFF: Let's talk about who each person needs to turn out here. Dion, what about Davis? Who must turn out for him for him to have any chance of beating this recall?

NISSENBAUM: Well, clearly, he needs the Democratic base to turn out. And that's why you have the labor unions fighting hard for him. There's -- he needs to win back a certain segment of the independent voters that are -- they're sort of the rising number of voters here in California. They're gaining the most momentum here in voter registration statistics.

If he can do that and he can win back some of the Democrats that were so disaffected with him in his first term, he may be able to squeak it out at the end. But, as I said, he's got a long way to go.

WOODRUFF: Ron, what would you add to that? And what about Schwarzenegger, who does he need to turn out?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, one thing about the turnout is that, again, if you look at this poll among all registered voters, leaving aside the question of the turnout model that you used, even in that poll Davis was losing 30 percent of Democrats, Judy, and was only running even among Latinos in terms of opposition to the recall. So that suggests that even higher turnout doesn't necessarily save him unless he can convert some of those voters back.

Schwarzenegger simply needs to turn out the anti-recall voters, because they are voting very heavily for him. They seem very energized. And the question is whether even after all of these infusions of national Democratic talent, from Bill Clinton to Wesley Clark on Wednesday, can -- will Democrats come out in defense of this governor? It's still an open question.

WOODRUFF: Very quickly, we haven't mentioned Tom McClintock. Does it really matter anymore if he's in or out for Schwarzenegger, Dion?

NISSENBAUM: At this point, all the polls seem to indicate that Schwarzenegger has the momentum to win this, even with Tom McClintock. And Cruz Bustamante's campaign seems to be faltering. He is going to have some money problems in this last week. So in the end, it may not matter.

BROWNSTEIN: Judy, the one negative for Schwarzenegger, maybe in this poll, is they worry that the real race is closer. This actually reduces the pressure on McClintock to get out, because it shows him so far ahead.

It may make it easier for him to argue that he's not really affecting Schwarzenegger. They might prefer some closer polls that increases the pressure on him to step out of the race before the end.

WOODRUFF: All right. We're going to leave it there. Ron Brownstein of the "Los Angeles Times," Dion Nissenbaum, of the "San Jose Mercury News," good to see you both. We appreciate it. BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Big week ahead.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 29, 2003 - 15:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: This hour: California Governor Gray Davis is stumping in Santa Monica, faced with new evidence that he may indeed be voted out of office next week. In our new poll, 63 percent of probable California voters say they will vote "yes" on recalling Davis. That is an increase from other recent surveys. Thirty-five percent say they will vote to keep the Democrat in office.
In the race to replace Davis, 40 percent of probable voters say they support Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now, that puts him 15 points ahead of his nearest rival, Democrat Cruz Bustamante. With those numbers in mind, let's go to CNN's Bob Franken on the rough and tumble of the race, with just eight days until the recall election.

Bob, what is the Gray Davis camp saying about these latest poll numbers, and what are they going to do?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're saying it's a joke. Now, you called it a recall free-for-all a moment ago. And, of course, it's hard to predict exactly what's going to happen in a free-for-all. But the polls are trying to quantify that.

And the people who put together the polls for CNN and "USA Today," the Gallup people, acknowledged that trying to define probable voters -- not likely voters -- probable voters is really just an exercise in educated experience. But the experience, of course, is somewhat limited in this with its 135 people on the ballot.

But it does show, nevertheless, that Gray Davis is in big trouble with the poll results that you showed, and that Arnold Schwarzenegger is surging just quite a bit right now, if this poll, in fact, is to be continued. Everybodying acknowledges it's a snapshot. All of those caveats are why Schwarzenegger is being very, very careful in his reaction.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Have questions about an in Arnold Schwarzenegger? So do a lot of people. He ducks tough questions. Didn't vote in 13 of the last 21 elections. And now he refuses to debate the governor he's trying to replace. Vote "no" on the recall.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRANKEN: Well, one of the complaints that the Schwarzenegger people have is that Gray Davis is reverting to his reputation and running negative ads like the one you just saw. The Davis people respond that all they're doing is responding to the attacks by Gray Davis.

At any rate, with all of that intrigued, the Republican Party continues to rally behind Arnold Schwarzenegger. There is going to be a news conference by the board of directors of the party in a couple of hours. And they are going to, we're told, come out and endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger. Just the latest in a whole parade of republicans who are getting behind Schwarzenegger.

As far as Tom McClintock is concerned, if the CNN poll is accurate, he has become less of a problem for the Republicans -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: And, Bob, what about Cruz Bustamante? He's at 25 percent, at least in this poll. What is his campaign saying?

FRANKEN: Well he's -- many Democrats these days are a little disappoint in his performance, saying that he really has failed to catch fire. Of course he's had problems with criticisms over his fund-raising. So they're beginning to count less on him. And, frankly, the Democrats are starting to get quite nervous.

WOODRUFF: All right. Bob Franken watching the recall, every minute of it, out in Los Angeles -- thanks.

And also joining us now from Los Angeles is Gray Davis campaign director, Steve Smith. Steve Smith, not only do we have this new poll, Gallup CNN-"USA Today" showing 63 percent of probable voters are in favor of the recall, you have 75 percent of these probable voters saying they don't approve of the job the governor's doing.

How does the governor pull it out with these kinds of numbers?

STEVE SMITH, DAVIS CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR: Well, actually, the governor's favorability ratings have been low for some time, given the times. But, frankly, with all due respect to your poll, I think it's flawed.

Our own tracking, two Republican polls from over the weekend and three Democrat polls all have the race within about nine or 10 points, with the "yes" being anywhere between 51 and 54 percent, depending on the poll, and the "no" being anywhere in the mid 40s. So I think what we have here is a flawed poll.

What has developed over the last weekend is quite clear, is that the race is really turning into a two-person race, with people deciding on the first ballot whether or not to retain Governor Davis in office, and then on the second ballot, seemingly showing a clear preference for Mr. Schwarzenegger at this point, if it comes to that. We, of course, hope it doesn't come to that and that the first ballot makes the second ballot moot.

WOODRUFF: Well, what about this two-man race issue? Because earlier in the campaign, Governor Davis was saying he would be endorsing someone on the replacement ballot. Cruz Bustamante, who is, of course, counting on that, is now reacting to the governor referring to it as a two-man race and saying -- I'm just quoting what he said over the weekend -- he said, "It's really too bad. I had hoped we would be able to come together."

Has the governor pretty much left Mr. Bustamante high and dry here?

SMITH: No. I just think the governor is focused on the first ballot, on the "yes" or "no" question on whether the governor will be retained. And essentially warnings voters of what the alternative would be should Arnold Schwarzenegger be elected.

WOODRUFF: What about -- let me ask you one other point here about -- in this poll. We asked people about approval, disapproval. We also asked -- in the CNN poll, we asked California voters, part of the Davis strategy has been to suggest that this whole recall effort is part of a national Republican effort to undo the results of elections. In other words, to get Democrats out of office. But when the voters were asked that question, two-thirds of them said they don't agree with that characterization.

SMITH: Well, I think there's ample evidence from a variety of sources that, in fact, this is part of a national Republican strategy. And a Republican strategy, a conservative Republican strategy right here in the state of California.

They obviously lost last November's elections. They don't like the kind of policies of pursuing expansion of the Healthy Children's Program. You know, test scores in the schools are up five years in a row. A number of those things they're uncomfortable with, and so they're essentially trying to change the outcome of last November's election.

WOODRUFF: Some people are also saying, Steve Smith, that it's going to hurt Governor Davis to be running these negative ads towards Arnold Schwarzenegger. Why do you think that's a winning strategy for the governor?

SMITH: Frankly, we didn't start running the so-called negative ads until Mr. Schwarzenegger began running negative ads against the governor. But at that point, we felt like we had to set the record straight.

Really, the way to settle all of this is for the two of them to debate. The governor has been asking now for several days, since it's clearly boiled down to the two-man race, that the two of them, in an open session, without any prepared questions, have a debate and discuss the issues with each other and with the California electorate. And that's important that that happen between now and next Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: And so far, the Schwarzenegger campaign is saying no. But we'll see. We still have eight days to go.

SMITH: Hopefully they'll come to their senses.

WOODRUFF: All right. Steve Smith, campaign director for Governor Gray Davis. Good to see you, Steve. Thank you very much for talking with us. We appreciate it. Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger is holding another town hall meeting later today as he tries to appear above the recall fray, you might say. The governor says he plans to reach out to voters in the final week of campaigning while he charges, Governor Davis, as you just heard, alleged, is going negative.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I think it's to be expected that when the polls look bad for Davis and good for me that he will just go and start campaigning the traditional way, which is negative campaigning and all that stuff. I mean, that's the only way he can do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: We just heard Steve Smith of the Davis campaign responding to that. And in a new boost for Schwarzenegger's campaign, he got the endorsement today of the Republican leader of the California State Assembly. And state Republican Party leaders are also considering whether to back Schwarzenegger. They're going to announce their decision later on today.

Well, if it's any consolation for Governor Davis, a number of major California newspapers have editorialized against the recall. The "Los Angeles Times," for one, warned that a vote to oust Davis could open the floodgates for future recalls. In its Sunday edition, "The Times" said, "Recall might feel good, but it would cause the worst political hangover California has ever had."

At least one major newspaper, the "San Diego Union Tribune," is urging a "yes" vote on the recall, because it says that Davis is "a failed governor." The "Tribune" endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger to replace Davis.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: As we approach the final week of the California recall campaign, I'm joined by two reporters keeping a close eye on the race. Our political analysts, Ron Brownstein, of the "Los Angeles Times," he's here with me in Washington. And Dion Nissenbaum is in Sacramento. He is a political reporter for the "San Jose Mercury News."

Dion Nissenbaum, to you first. We just heard Steve Smith, who is Davis' campaign director, tell me the poll that we've been reporting is flawed. Whether that is the case or not, how much trouble is Governor Davis in?

DION NISSENBAUM, "SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS": Well, clearly, he's got a long way to go between now and next Tuesday. What's interesting about your poll is that even -- if you just take a look at the registered voter numbers in your poll, they line up pretty closely with all of the other polls out here.

There's pretty much a 13 to 14-point spread between "yes" and "no". And I think the number that really matters for the governor is that he's had a hard time getting more than 40 percent of the voters to vote "no" on the recall. And you have a -- just a week left to turn that around. It's a big challenge.

WOODRUFF: Ron Brownstein, can Davis survive this?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELEST TIMES": Very, difficult, Judy. I mean, I agree with what Dion said. I mean, if you look at your registered voter numbers, it's very similar to what both campaigns seem to be in the ballpark (UNINTELLIGIBLE) other recent polls have. And that is Davis somewhere in the low 40s on getting voters to oppose the recall.

Look, when he won reelection in 2002, he only won 47 percent of the vote. So, in effect, he has to do better now at a time when conditions are worse to get to 50 percent.

I mean, maybe the best indicator, better than any of the polls, is the fact that they have gone out so aggressively against Schwarzenegger in the last few days. It basically suggests they believe they cannot get to 50 percent by themselves by convincing people that he is worthy of more time. It's more now that they have to convince the people the alternatives are worse.

WOODRUFF: Dion, the governor is now vigorously challenging Schwarzenegger to a debate. Is that going to help the governor by doing this? Presumably, Schwarzenegger is going to continue to say no, although we don't know for sure.

NISSENBAUM: Right. Well, there's not much incentive at this point for Arnold Schwarzenegger to engage the governor in a debate when he seems to have the momentum with him. Arnold Schwarzenegger has come under a lot of fire throughout this campaign for avoiding specifics, avoiding debates, avoiding interviews, including he still hasn't done an interview with the "San Jose Mercury News."

So it does have the potential to hurt him. But if the momentum is still going his way, it's not clear why he would engage the governor in a debate.

WOODRUFF: Ron, do voters care at this point about whether Schwarzenegger debates the governor?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think Schwarzenegger continues to face a certain amount of doubt from a certain amount of voters about whether he's up to the job. I mean, he's not polling at 50 percent, but of course he doesn't have to, Judy. You know the way this works, the plurality on the second ballot is plenty.

And I think that he clearly crossed the threshold for enough Californian in that very heavily watched debate last week to put him in a much stronger position. And, I agree, at this point, there really is very little incentive for him because Davis is trying to make this into a Davis-Schwarzenegger race.

Schwarzenegger doesn't have to do that. He can simply make it into a Schwarzenegger-Bustamante race and let Davis run against himself. And what we've seen is Davis probably can't win that race.

WOODRUFF: Let's talk about who each person needs to turn out here. Dion, what about Davis? Who must turn out for him for him to have any chance of beating this recall?

NISSENBAUM: Well, clearly, he needs the Democratic base to turn out. And that's why you have the labor unions fighting hard for him. There's -- he needs to win back a certain segment of the independent voters that are -- they're sort of the rising number of voters here in California. They're gaining the most momentum here in voter registration statistics.

If he can do that and he can win back some of the Democrats that were so disaffected with him in his first term, he may be able to squeak it out at the end. But, as I said, he's got a long way to go.

WOODRUFF: Ron, what would you add to that? And what about Schwarzenegger, who does he need to turn out?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, one thing about the turnout is that, again, if you look at this poll among all registered voters, leaving aside the question of the turnout model that you used, even in that poll Davis was losing 30 percent of Democrats, Judy, and was only running even among Latinos in terms of opposition to the recall. So that suggests that even higher turnout doesn't necessarily save him unless he can convert some of those voters back.

Schwarzenegger simply needs to turn out the anti-recall voters, because they are voting very heavily for him. They seem very energized. And the question is whether even after all of these infusions of national Democratic talent, from Bill Clinton to Wesley Clark on Wednesday, can -- will Democrats come out in defense of this governor? It's still an open question.

WOODRUFF: Very quickly, we haven't mentioned Tom McClintock. Does it really matter anymore if he's in or out for Schwarzenegger, Dion?

NISSENBAUM: At this point, all the polls seem to indicate that Schwarzenegger has the momentum to win this, even with Tom McClintock. And Cruz Bustamante's campaign seems to be faltering. He is going to have some money problems in this last week. So in the end, it may not matter.

BROWNSTEIN: Judy, the one negative for Schwarzenegger, maybe in this poll, is they worry that the real race is closer. This actually reduces the pressure on McClintock to get out, because it shows him so far ahead.

It may make it easier for him to argue that he's not really affecting Schwarzenegger. They might prefer some closer polls that increases the pressure on him to step out of the race before the end.

WOODRUFF: All right. We're going to leave it there. Ron Brownstein of the "Los Angeles Times," Dion Nissenbaum, of the "San Jose Mercury News," good to see you both. We appreciate it. BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Big week ahead.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com