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Schwarzenegger Leads California Polls

Aired October 01, 2003 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: As far as we know, Arnold Schwarzenegger has not measured for curtains in the California governor's office yet, but he is planning for his first 100 days there after another poll suggests he is poised to come out the winner in next week's recall election.
CNN's Rusty Dornin is with Schwarzenegger in Sacramento.

So what would a Governor Schwarzenegger do, Rusty?

RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Candy, it did sound a lot more like an inaugural speech, rather than a campaign appearance.

He was speaking, of course, bolstered by the recent poll, before an audience of about 1,000 people here in Sacramento, a lot of business leaders. Of course, that's what he's been pounding on entire -- through his campaign is -- and you can see even from the very well produced signs behind me here, "Let's bring California back," he's talking about the economy, the climate.

He outlined in his first 100 days what he would do. And he had a 10-point program. He sounded like a hero out of one of his movies, saying: I want to take office. I'll take action and take California back to the people. He talked about streamlining a lot of government offices, renegotiating union contracts, having a quarterly audit, or looking at the condition of California's economy.

But the things that got the most applause were the things he said he would do on the first day. That was repealing the car tax. That was the tax that goes into effect today that triples the license fees for Californians; also, that he wants to get California's fair share from Indian gaming. That also got a lot of enthusiastic applause.

But the thing that got a standing ovation for Arnold Schwarzenegger was his ninth point, where he says what he would do about the recent law that allows illegal immigrants to have driver's licenses.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I will not let California's driver's licenses be turned into fraudulent documents.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

SCHWARZENEGGER: I will not let our law enforcement be weakened and our national security be threatened. I will give the legislators one last chance to repeal SB-60. And if they don't, I will take it directly to the people.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DORNIN: Now, of course, this is the first time he's really presented specific plans for his policies. But he did not take any questions from reporters following the speech here.

Outside, there were about 100 protesters that were no on recall, mostly union supporters, that were shouting loudly for the folks coming inside. Now, of course, the Schwarzenegger campaign launches its bus tour tomorrow in San Diego. But this is his last public appearance for the day -- Candy?.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Rusty Dornin, in Sacramento.

This hour, Governor Davis is on the trail fighting to keep his job and prove Schwarzenegger and the pollsters wrong. That may be a difficult mission, even with a retired general at his side.

CNN's Frank Buckley is covering Davis' appearance here in Los Angeles -- Frank.

BUCKLEY: Hey there, Candy.

General Wesley Clark just the most recent presidential candidate on the Democrat side to appear with Governor Gray Davis here at Fire Station No. 27, the L.A. Fire Museum in Los Angeles. They haven't taken the stage yet. They're expected to shortly, Davis aides saying they want to make the contrast between what they call real action heroes, firefighters and first-responders, and the movie action hero in Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And if Davis aides are concerned about this most recent "L.A. Times" poll that shows that 56 percent of likely voters are supporting the recall, they're not showing it. They say that, yes, there is work to do. But they also say that their internal polling shows it much closer and that it confirms what they've been saying, that it's a two- man race at this point between Governor Gray Davis and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

They say they will continue to make the case that this is a race between what they describe as an experienced leader and an untested actor. You talk to Democrats around the state, however, Candy, as I know you have, there are people who are disturbed by these most recent "L.A. Times" numbers. I talked to Joe Surrell (ph) this morning, a longtime Democratic consultant here in the state California. As he put it, "At this point, we're counting on the Hail Mary to defeat the recall" -- Candy.

CROWLEY: Frank, you may have answered this next question. But with Gore, Clinton, now Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, where are the California Democrats? BUCKLEY: Yes, the California Democrats have been out sporadically. You've seen, for example, Dianne Feinstein did the commercial earlier on. Barbara Boxer has appeared with Davis. John Garamendi just recently appeared with Governor Davis, but that was at a bill-signing ceremony. The Davis aides will say that the California Democrats have been there.

But what we haven't seen is that group picture. You haven't seen all of the statewide office-holders standing side by side with Governor Davis and doing it repeatedly. And when you talk to observers here in California, they'll say the reason is that Governor Davis has made, if not a few friends, he's made enemies along the way. And so you -- he hasn't had the -- hasn't been able to pick up the phone and say to a number of strong Democrats here in California: Come stand with me.

And when you talk to some people in the state, they will actually say that they haven't received those calls anyway. So, you're right that we haven't seen that many events with the statewide Democrats appearing with Governor Davis. But the Davis aides say that there will be a unified front on the Democrat side as we approach the recall election date -- Candy.

CROWLEY: CNN's Frank Buckley -- thanks, Frank.

You can look for Governor Davis to surround himself with other stars in the hours and the days ahead. Later today, he will appear at an environmental event with movie director Rob Reiner and "Seinfeld" co-star Julia Dreyfus. Recall dropout Arianna Huffington will be there, too.

And former President Bill Clinton may return to California to campaign with Davis, though plans are not yet set. The Davis camp has a new radio ad out today featuring Clinton urging Californians to defeat the recall.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP, AD)

WILLIAM J. CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't want this to happen to him, but this is way bigger than him. This is the right thing to do, to beat this recall. It's the right thing. It's the fair thing. It's the just thing. It's the good thing. Gray Davis hasn't lost heart. Don't you lose heart. You go out and beat this thing. Thank you.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

CROWLEY: There is a growing sense of urgency in the Davis camp, with six days until the election and with a new "Los Angeles Times" poll suggesting voters will recall the governor.

We want to talk about that survey now with Susan Pinkus of "The L.A. Times."

Susan, thank you so much for being here.

SUSAN PINKUS, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES": Thank you.

CROWLEY: I want to talk to you a little bit about why -- this is a pretty dramatic change from your last poll for those who want to go ahead and recall the governor. What happened?

PINKUS: I think what happened was the debate.

Before, the voters disliked Davis, but they didn't think they had anyone to vote for. So they were sort of rallying behind him. There was a momentum against the recall. Then the debate happened, and they realized that Schwarzenegger did not embarrass himself, did not embarrass the state, knew some of the issues of the state. And they thought, you know, it was status quo vs. change. And they're sort of now consolidating behind Schwarzenegger.

CROWLEY: So time clearly isn't on the governor's side. Was there anything in your internal numbers, the other smaller questions that you asked, that would give the governor any reason to think that he could turn this around?

PINKUS: Well, he's having a hard time with his own core base of voters. He's only getting about 72 percent of Democrats. And he's losing about 35 percent of nonliberal Democrats.

Union members, who are usually loyal to the Democrats in this state and to Gray Davis, is now voting for the recall. So he has to turn that around. Latinos, who in our last poll were voting for the recall, are now divided. So he moved then, in a way, from voting for the recall to a neutral position right now. And, hopefully, he can turn them around.

A big issue for him, though, I think, as you mentioned in the piece earlier, is the driver's license for illegal immigrants. About two-thirds of our voters and about seven in 10 white voters disapproved that he signed the bill. And more than two out of five voters said that they would be less likely to support a candidate who supported that bill. So Schwarzenegger is doing the right thing in saying that he will repeal that bill.

Plus, he's also tapping into, I think, some voter anger that's very underlying. And it's a candidate that is an outsider that won't pander to special interests.

CROWLEY: Susan, let me ask you -- we don't have much time left, but I want to ask you just quickly, is there any way -- of course, there's been lots of talk about polls and turnout. As we all know, it's all who shows up. Any indication in that poll that there's a fervor to show up, that there's some kind of inclination for more people to go than usual?

PINKUS: I think so.

This is really amazing to me. We always ask the question, how interested are you in following the campaign? And, in our preelection poll in October 2002, it was only 38 percent were very interested. In this poll, it's 73 percent are very interested in getting out to vote. Plus, there's a higher percentage of Democrats and Republicans both coming out to vote. So I guess it depends on who can get the turnout in their own constituency to come out more than the other.

CROWLEY: Always comes down to that.

PINKUS: That's right.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Susan Pinkus of "The L.A. Times." We appreciate your time.

PINKUS: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com








Aired October 1, 2003 - 15:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: As far as we know, Arnold Schwarzenegger has not measured for curtains in the California governor's office yet, but he is planning for his first 100 days there after another poll suggests he is poised to come out the winner in next week's recall election.
CNN's Rusty Dornin is with Schwarzenegger in Sacramento.

So what would a Governor Schwarzenegger do, Rusty?

RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Candy, it did sound a lot more like an inaugural speech, rather than a campaign appearance.

He was speaking, of course, bolstered by the recent poll, before an audience of about 1,000 people here in Sacramento, a lot of business leaders. Of course, that's what he's been pounding on entire -- through his campaign is -- and you can see even from the very well produced signs behind me here, "Let's bring California back," he's talking about the economy, the climate.

He outlined in his first 100 days what he would do. And he had a 10-point program. He sounded like a hero out of one of his movies, saying: I want to take office. I'll take action and take California back to the people. He talked about streamlining a lot of government offices, renegotiating union contracts, having a quarterly audit, or looking at the condition of California's economy.

But the things that got the most applause were the things he said he would do on the first day. That was repealing the car tax. That was the tax that goes into effect today that triples the license fees for Californians; also, that he wants to get California's fair share from Indian gaming. That also got a lot of enthusiastic applause.

But the thing that got a standing ovation for Arnold Schwarzenegger was his ninth point, where he says what he would do about the recent law that allows illegal immigrants to have driver's licenses.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I will not let California's driver's licenses be turned into fraudulent documents.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

SCHWARZENEGGER: I will not let our law enforcement be weakened and our national security be threatened. I will give the legislators one last chance to repeal SB-60. And if they don't, I will take it directly to the people.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DORNIN: Now, of course, this is the first time he's really presented specific plans for his policies. But he did not take any questions from reporters following the speech here.

Outside, there were about 100 protesters that were no on recall, mostly union supporters, that were shouting loudly for the folks coming inside. Now, of course, the Schwarzenegger campaign launches its bus tour tomorrow in San Diego. But this is his last public appearance for the day -- Candy?.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Rusty Dornin, in Sacramento.

This hour, Governor Davis is on the trail fighting to keep his job and prove Schwarzenegger and the pollsters wrong. That may be a difficult mission, even with a retired general at his side.

CNN's Frank Buckley is covering Davis' appearance here in Los Angeles -- Frank.

BUCKLEY: Hey there, Candy.

General Wesley Clark just the most recent presidential candidate on the Democrat side to appear with Governor Gray Davis here at Fire Station No. 27, the L.A. Fire Museum in Los Angeles. They haven't taken the stage yet. They're expected to shortly, Davis aides saying they want to make the contrast between what they call real action heroes, firefighters and first-responders, and the movie action hero in Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And if Davis aides are concerned about this most recent "L.A. Times" poll that shows that 56 percent of likely voters are supporting the recall, they're not showing it. They say that, yes, there is work to do. But they also say that their internal polling shows it much closer and that it confirms what they've been saying, that it's a two- man race at this point between Governor Gray Davis and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

They say they will continue to make the case that this is a race between what they describe as an experienced leader and an untested actor. You talk to Democrats around the state, however, Candy, as I know you have, there are people who are disturbed by these most recent "L.A. Times" numbers. I talked to Joe Surrell (ph) this morning, a longtime Democratic consultant here in the state California. As he put it, "At this point, we're counting on the Hail Mary to defeat the recall" -- Candy.

CROWLEY: Frank, you may have answered this next question. But with Gore, Clinton, now Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, where are the California Democrats? BUCKLEY: Yes, the California Democrats have been out sporadically. You've seen, for example, Dianne Feinstein did the commercial earlier on. Barbara Boxer has appeared with Davis. John Garamendi just recently appeared with Governor Davis, but that was at a bill-signing ceremony. The Davis aides will say that the California Democrats have been there.

But what we haven't seen is that group picture. You haven't seen all of the statewide office-holders standing side by side with Governor Davis and doing it repeatedly. And when you talk to observers here in California, they'll say the reason is that Governor Davis has made, if not a few friends, he's made enemies along the way. And so you -- he hasn't had the -- hasn't been able to pick up the phone and say to a number of strong Democrats here in California: Come stand with me.

And when you talk to some people in the state, they will actually say that they haven't received those calls anyway. So, you're right that we haven't seen that many events with the statewide Democrats appearing with Governor Davis. But the Davis aides say that there will be a unified front on the Democrat side as we approach the recall election date -- Candy.

CROWLEY: CNN's Frank Buckley -- thanks, Frank.

You can look for Governor Davis to surround himself with other stars in the hours and the days ahead. Later today, he will appear at an environmental event with movie director Rob Reiner and "Seinfeld" co-star Julia Dreyfus. Recall dropout Arianna Huffington will be there, too.

And former President Bill Clinton may return to California to campaign with Davis, though plans are not yet set. The Davis camp has a new radio ad out today featuring Clinton urging Californians to defeat the recall.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP, AD)

WILLIAM J. CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't want this to happen to him, but this is way bigger than him. This is the right thing to do, to beat this recall. It's the right thing. It's the fair thing. It's the just thing. It's the good thing. Gray Davis hasn't lost heart. Don't you lose heart. You go out and beat this thing. Thank you.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

CROWLEY: There is a growing sense of urgency in the Davis camp, with six days until the election and with a new "Los Angeles Times" poll suggesting voters will recall the governor.

We want to talk about that survey now with Susan Pinkus of "The L.A. Times."

Susan, thank you so much for being here.

SUSAN PINKUS, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES": Thank you.

CROWLEY: I want to talk to you a little bit about why -- this is a pretty dramatic change from your last poll for those who want to go ahead and recall the governor. What happened?

PINKUS: I think what happened was the debate.

Before, the voters disliked Davis, but they didn't think they had anyone to vote for. So they were sort of rallying behind him. There was a momentum against the recall. Then the debate happened, and they realized that Schwarzenegger did not embarrass himself, did not embarrass the state, knew some of the issues of the state. And they thought, you know, it was status quo vs. change. And they're sort of now consolidating behind Schwarzenegger.

CROWLEY: So time clearly isn't on the governor's side. Was there anything in your internal numbers, the other smaller questions that you asked, that would give the governor any reason to think that he could turn this around?

PINKUS: Well, he's having a hard time with his own core base of voters. He's only getting about 72 percent of Democrats. And he's losing about 35 percent of nonliberal Democrats.

Union members, who are usually loyal to the Democrats in this state and to Gray Davis, is now voting for the recall. So he has to turn that around. Latinos, who in our last poll were voting for the recall, are now divided. So he moved then, in a way, from voting for the recall to a neutral position right now. And, hopefully, he can turn them around.

A big issue for him, though, I think, as you mentioned in the piece earlier, is the driver's license for illegal immigrants. About two-thirds of our voters and about seven in 10 white voters disapproved that he signed the bill. And more than two out of five voters said that they would be less likely to support a candidate who supported that bill. So Schwarzenegger is doing the right thing in saying that he will repeal that bill.

Plus, he's also tapping into, I think, some voter anger that's very underlying. And it's a candidate that is an outsider that won't pander to special interests.

CROWLEY: Susan, let me ask you -- we don't have much time left, but I want to ask you just quickly, is there any way -- of course, there's been lots of talk about polls and turnout. As we all know, it's all who shows up. Any indication in that poll that there's a fervor to show up, that there's some kind of inclination for more people to go than usual?

PINKUS: I think so.

This is really amazing to me. We always ask the question, how interested are you in following the campaign? And, in our preelection poll in October 2002, it was only 38 percent were very interested. In this poll, it's 73 percent are very interested in getting out to vote. Plus, there's a higher percentage of Democrats and Republicans both coming out to vote. So I guess it depends on who can get the turnout in their own constituency to come out more than the other.

CROWLEY: Always comes down to that.

PINKUS: That's right.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Susan Pinkus of "The L.A. Times." We appreciate your time.

PINKUS: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com