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California Recall Ad War
Aired October 02, 2003 - 15:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CALIFORNIANS AGAINST THE COSTLY RECALL AD)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If the recall goes through, we're going to have someone who has no experience.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He hasn't taken time to really know what our problems are and he doesn't have a plan for the future.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He just hasn't shown any qualifications to be the governor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't know who he is. He doesn't stand for anything. He doesn't speak on the issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: That's the latest ad from a group opposing the California recall, just another in the barrage of TV spots facing California TV viewers.
With me now to break down the ad buys in the recall race is Evan Tracey of TNS Media Intelligence. His company tracks ad spending in the nation's top 100 media markets.
First, in terms of overall spending in the recall effort, what have we seen so far?
EVAN TRACEY, CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP: Well, John, so far we've seen about $30 million spent in the major markets in California by the candidates, the issue groups, and their supporters right now.
What this means is, we've had sort of a steady buildup to where we're spending $10 million-plus a week. And to put it in perspective, the average TV viewer in, say, Los Angeles right now is -- has an opportunity to see over 200 ads a day, if they want to.
KING: Two hundred ads a day. I want to break it down by individual candidates, at least the major candidates. But first, let's listen to a few of the spots.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CALIFORNIAN AGAINST THE COSTLY RECALL AD)
NARRATOR: Under a Democratic governor, we have passed domestic partnership legislation, banned greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warning, strengthened laws protecting a woman's right to choose. The Republicans fought against each of these issues. If they get rid of the governor, what do you think they'll try to get rid of next?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, SCHWARZENEGGER CAMPAIGN AD)
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I know what we need to do and I know how to get it done. I have built businesses and I've signed paychecks. And for 25 years, I've been an advocate for children. In my life, the goals that I've set for myself, I've been able to achieve. But this is bigger than me. I need your help. Together, we can bring California back.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSTAMANTE CAMPAIGN AD)
LT. GOV. CRUZ BUSTAMANTE (D-CA), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: He doesn't live in our world. He lives on planet Hollywood. There is a long list of candidates. Finding my name won't be easy. But I need you to do it, because I need your vote for governor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: OK, let's break it down. Arnold Schwarzenegger has spent?
TRACEY: He is the leader in the polls and the leader in spending. He has spent about $11 million so far statewide in California. That total is building, spending in excess of $4 million per week right now, really pushing two themes, his biography and also the problems in Sacramento.
KING: You say Schwarzenegger is leading in terms of spending. Gray Davis is?
TRACEY: Gray Davis is spending about $8 million so far. We estimate, statewide, between Gray Davis campaign and his supporter groups, again, his big shift this week has been away from attacking the recall and now talking more about Schwarzenegger and the Republicans, really trying to turn it into a two-man race.
KING: We saw a snippet there from Cruz Bustamante, the Democratic lieutenant governor. How is his -- keeping up?
TRACEY: Bustamante is actually spending about the same as Gray Davis, about $8 million so far. But he spread it out really over three groups, his no on Prop 54, his own campaign and some of his support group campaigns.
Again, he's got a complicated message. And he's really having a hard time fitting those into 30-second spots right now.
KING: I want to get your sense also -- it's just not the candidates, a number of independent groups spending as well.
Before we get to the numbers and the scope of that, let's listen to a snip of an ad from the Republican Governors Association here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION AD)
NARRATOR: Cruz Bustamante has been Gray Davis' lieutenant for five years. It's hard to tell them apart on issues. Like Davis, Bustamante blames others on energy, but Bustamante co-sponsored the plan which sent electric bills skyrocketing.
Like Davis, Bustamante would raise income taxes to balance the budget. Bustamante even proposes dismantling Prop 13 and imposing huge property tax increases on small businesses. Davis, Bustamante, Bustamante, Davis, what's the difference?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: That's the Republican Governors Association. What other groups are getting involved?
TRACEY: Republican Governors Association right now is spending -- that's a new ad -- spending a couple hundred thousand per week on that buy. It wouldn't be a high-profile race in this country anymore without independent expenditures.
Indian gaming groups, there have been about three so far that have weighed in with various ad campaigns. The new one, First Americans, is spending probably about $150,000 a week. Indian gaming spent about $150,000 a day. And Indian gaming has spend about $1 million total, something we expect to probably see increasing as we get closer to Election Day.
KING: And just a few days left. I assume most people who are going to spend money on ads have bought the time. What are we looking for?
TRACEY: We think, right now, the average of $10 million a week is probably going to go up to somewhere $15 million a week. The candidates really aren't going to leave any money in their bank accounts or airtime unbought.
KING: Evan Tracey, a lot of money being spent. Thanks for helping us break it down.
TRACEY: Thank you, sir.
KING: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired October 2, 2003 - 15:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CALIFORNIANS AGAINST THE COSTLY RECALL AD)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If the recall goes through, we're going to have someone who has no experience.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He hasn't taken time to really know what our problems are and he doesn't have a plan for the future.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He just hasn't shown any qualifications to be the governor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't know who he is. He doesn't stand for anything. He doesn't speak on the issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: That's the latest ad from a group opposing the California recall, just another in the barrage of TV spots facing California TV viewers.
With me now to break down the ad buys in the recall race is Evan Tracey of TNS Media Intelligence. His company tracks ad spending in the nation's top 100 media markets.
First, in terms of overall spending in the recall effort, what have we seen so far?
EVAN TRACEY, CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP: Well, John, so far we've seen about $30 million spent in the major markets in California by the candidates, the issue groups, and their supporters right now.
What this means is, we've had sort of a steady buildup to where we're spending $10 million-plus a week. And to put it in perspective, the average TV viewer in, say, Los Angeles right now is -- has an opportunity to see over 200 ads a day, if they want to.
KING: Two hundred ads a day. I want to break it down by individual candidates, at least the major candidates. But first, let's listen to a few of the spots.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CALIFORNIAN AGAINST THE COSTLY RECALL AD)
NARRATOR: Under a Democratic governor, we have passed domestic partnership legislation, banned greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warning, strengthened laws protecting a woman's right to choose. The Republicans fought against each of these issues. If they get rid of the governor, what do you think they'll try to get rid of next?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, SCHWARZENEGGER CAMPAIGN AD)
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I know what we need to do and I know how to get it done. I have built businesses and I've signed paychecks. And for 25 years, I've been an advocate for children. In my life, the goals that I've set for myself, I've been able to achieve. But this is bigger than me. I need your help. Together, we can bring California back.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSTAMANTE CAMPAIGN AD)
LT. GOV. CRUZ BUSTAMANTE (D-CA), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: He doesn't live in our world. He lives on planet Hollywood. There is a long list of candidates. Finding my name won't be easy. But I need you to do it, because I need your vote for governor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: OK, let's break it down. Arnold Schwarzenegger has spent?
TRACEY: He is the leader in the polls and the leader in spending. He has spent about $11 million so far statewide in California. That total is building, spending in excess of $4 million per week right now, really pushing two themes, his biography and also the problems in Sacramento.
KING: You say Schwarzenegger is leading in terms of spending. Gray Davis is?
TRACEY: Gray Davis is spending about $8 million so far. We estimate, statewide, between Gray Davis campaign and his supporter groups, again, his big shift this week has been away from attacking the recall and now talking more about Schwarzenegger and the Republicans, really trying to turn it into a two-man race.
KING: We saw a snippet there from Cruz Bustamante, the Democratic lieutenant governor. How is his -- keeping up?
TRACEY: Bustamante is actually spending about the same as Gray Davis, about $8 million so far. But he spread it out really over three groups, his no on Prop 54, his own campaign and some of his support group campaigns.
Again, he's got a complicated message. And he's really having a hard time fitting those into 30-second spots right now.
KING: I want to get your sense also -- it's just not the candidates, a number of independent groups spending as well.
Before we get to the numbers and the scope of that, let's listen to a snip of an ad from the Republican Governors Association here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION AD)
NARRATOR: Cruz Bustamante has been Gray Davis' lieutenant for five years. It's hard to tell them apart on issues. Like Davis, Bustamante blames others on energy, but Bustamante co-sponsored the plan which sent electric bills skyrocketing.
Like Davis, Bustamante would raise income taxes to balance the budget. Bustamante even proposes dismantling Prop 13 and imposing huge property tax increases on small businesses. Davis, Bustamante, Bustamante, Davis, what's the difference?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: That's the Republican Governors Association. What other groups are getting involved?
TRACEY: Republican Governors Association right now is spending -- that's a new ad -- spending a couple hundred thousand per week on that buy. It wouldn't be a high-profile race in this country anymore without independent expenditures.
Indian gaming groups, there have been about three so far that have weighed in with various ad campaigns. The new one, First Americans, is spending probably about $150,000 a week. Indian gaming spent about $150,000 a day. And Indian gaming has spend about $1 million total, something we expect to probably see increasing as we get closer to Election Day.
KING: And just a few days left. I assume most people who are going to spend money on ads have bought the time. What are we looking for?
TRACEY: We think, right now, the average of $10 million a week is probably going to go up to somewhere $15 million a week. The candidates really aren't going to leave any money in their bank accounts or airtime unbought.
KING: Evan Tracey, a lot of money being spent. Thanks for helping us break it down.
TRACEY: Thank you, sir.
KING: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
