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Incumbents in Danger in 2004?

Aired October 21, 2003 - 15:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll offers some new insight on how Americans view members of Congress and incumbents in general.
CNN political analyst Bill Schneider is in Washington with more on all this.

Bill, first of all, politically, where would you say congressional Democrats are as they look ahead to next year?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I'll tell you one thing. Democrats are not where they want to be.

Right now, Republicans in Congress get a 51 percent job rating, Democrats, 45, even though Republicans control Congress and times are tough. And here's something else. Both of those ratings are down from last year. The Republican rating is down eight points. The Democrats are down 12.

WOODRUFF: Bill, are the Democrats at all being helped by the problems that the economy has had?

SCHNEIDER: Actually, no. And that is a surprise. The economy is dragging down President Bush's numbers, but it's not boosting the Democrats'. More and more Americans say the economy is in poor shape.

Now look at these numbers across the top row. Last year, 39 percent said the economy was bad. Now, on the right, 56 percent do. But check out how those people rate the Democrats in Congress. Last year, people who said the economy was bad gave congressional Democrats a 59 percent approval rating. Now people who say the economy is bad give Democrats a 50. Now, that's pretty clear evidence that Democrats in Congress have failed to take advantage of growing concerns about the economy.

WOODRUFF: Which raises questions why they haven't.

But, Bill, what are the implications here for '04?

SCHNEIDER: Well, Judy, it could turn out to be a bad year for all incumbents. California voters just fired their governor. And he is a Democrat. You just spoke to him, Gray Davis. And President Bush's ratings are shaky. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are seeing their ratings decline. We could be entering another period, like the early 1990s, when the economy was bad and outsiders were in. You might call it the Schwarzenegger era.

WOODRUFF: Hmm. If that's the case, wonder how that will play out.

SCHNEIDER: Yes.

WOODRUFF: All right, Bill Schneider, thanks very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired October 21, 2003 - 15:12   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll offers some new insight on how Americans view members of Congress and incumbents in general.
CNN political analyst Bill Schneider is in Washington with more on all this.

Bill, first of all, politically, where would you say congressional Democrats are as they look ahead to next year?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I'll tell you one thing. Democrats are not where they want to be.

Right now, Republicans in Congress get a 51 percent job rating, Democrats, 45, even though Republicans control Congress and times are tough. And here's something else. Both of those ratings are down from last year. The Republican rating is down eight points. The Democrats are down 12.

WOODRUFF: Bill, are the Democrats at all being helped by the problems that the economy has had?

SCHNEIDER: Actually, no. And that is a surprise. The economy is dragging down President Bush's numbers, but it's not boosting the Democrats'. More and more Americans say the economy is in poor shape.

Now look at these numbers across the top row. Last year, 39 percent said the economy was bad. Now, on the right, 56 percent do. But check out how those people rate the Democrats in Congress. Last year, people who said the economy was bad gave congressional Democrats a 59 percent approval rating. Now people who say the economy is bad give Democrats a 50. Now, that's pretty clear evidence that Democrats in Congress have failed to take advantage of growing concerns about the economy.

WOODRUFF: Which raises questions why they haven't.

But, Bill, what are the implications here for '04?

SCHNEIDER: Well, Judy, it could turn out to be a bad year for all incumbents. California voters just fired their governor. And he is a Democrat. You just spoke to him, Gray Davis. And President Bush's ratings are shaky. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are seeing their ratings decline. We could be entering another period, like the early 1990s, when the economy was bad and outsiders were in. You might call it the Schwarzenegger era.

WOODRUFF: Hmm. If that's the case, wonder how that will play out.

SCHNEIDER: Yes.

WOODRUFF: All right, Bill Schneider, thanks very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com