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How the Democrats Will Survive the Day; Who the Young Vote For

Aired November 04, 2003 - 13:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: It's the first Tuesday in November. That means Election Day in many places. A grab bag of state and local races being decided today from sea to shining sea. Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston are choosing mayors. Kentucky and Mississippi choosing governors. Indiana, Maine, Colorado deciding whether to open their states to gambling.
Our money's on CNN's Bill Schneider to tell us who or who will be rocking the vote. And if so, why? Bill Schneider, good to see you, sir.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Miles. Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: Let's begin in what was once the Solid South for the Democrats. Mississippi where we have a battle with an incumbent Democratic governor against Haley Barbour, a name many people out there might recognize, former Republican national chairman. What do you make of that contest?

SCHNEIDER: Very, very close. Ronnie Musgrove, like many incumbents, is fighting to survive in Mississippi. Always tough in a Deep South state, a state that went by 16 points or 17 points for George Bush over Al Gore in 2000.

That's a very close race. Haley Barbour has come in, strong Republican, Bush campaigned in Mississippi over the weekend for Haley Barbour. The issue that's come up is whether he's too Washington and not enough Mississippi. But he does have deep family roots in Mississippi. And he's running a very strong race.

O'BRIEN: And I hear turnout is good there. We'll have to watch that one very closely.

Let's move to Kentucky where President Bush was also campaigning on behalf of the Republican candidate, Representative Ernie Fletcher. That one not as close in the polls.

SCHNEIDER: Well that's right. The Republican candidate looks pretty strong. The Democratic governor is an incumbent, cannot run for a third term. There were a lot scandals including a sexual misconduct scandal associated with Governor Patton. So he's got a very bad image.

And both candidates are attempting to run on change, but the Republican is able to make a stronger case because he represents the out party and the governor is a Democrat. President Bush came into Kentucky as well to campaign. And you know what's interesting is Democrats are saying that when President Bush comes to Mississippi or Kentucky to campaign, it not only helps Republicans get out the vote, but it also helps Democrats get out the vote because there a lot of Democrats, particularly minority voters, who don't care for President Bush.

So when he comes into a state and says, This is all about me, a lot of the Democrats may be driven out to vote as well.

O'BRIEN: Now there was this whole thing which came out of California post-Schwarzenegger. Democrats are trying to spin this as no matter where it is or who it is, the incumbents are the people in trouble this go around. Do you buy that?

SCHNEIDER: Well it's an easy argument to make if all the incumbents are Democrats and they all lose. You see, Gray Davis lost. The incumbent of Kentucky is a Democrat, his party may lose. And the incumbent governor of Mississippi is a Democrat.

If they all lose the Republicans will claim bragging rights. Republicans have had a clean sweep. California, then Mississippi, then Kentucky. But the Democrats' spin is it's just because they were incumbents and that could be bad news for President Bush.

You know what I think? They may have a point. If times are tough all incumbents are in trouble and President Bush could be in trouble next year.

The problem is the economic news recently has been pretty good. And President Bush is now spinning that to his advantage and saying things are looking up.

O'BRIEN: Well that's -- it's interesting because it's kind of inside out from the Bush I presidency. At that time the first President Bush touting the war record and the economy is what got him.

In this case, President Bush, the second version, touting the economy, and Democrats are hoping the war will get him.

But for Democrats that is a course that has some peril built into it.

SCHNEIDER: Well that's right. Look, this is not 1992. Let's get that straight. Democrats were expecting, maybe even hoping it would be a rerun of '92 where the economy, stupid, was the issue. And the war in Iraq, the first Gulf War was long forgotten by the time the first President Bush faced reelection.

But this looks like it could end up being just the reverse, particularly with the terrible news coming out of Baghdad over the weekend and today, and the good news about the economy.

So there was President Bush yesterday in Alabama talking about the economy, the economy, the economy, which is the issue that trapped his father. And the Democrats are going to be talking about Iraq, Iraq, Iraq because the news from there has been very bad. It looks like it could end up being the reverse of 1992.

O'BRIEN: All right. We've got a big debate tonight. You're going to see it here on CNN. What's going to happen? Are we going to have one of those BVB, Brief Versus Boxer questions? Or what? And if so, is Dean the person that young people respond to well?

SCHNEIDER: Well, look, Dean is hoping that he can get young voters on his side because, look, he's using the Internet, which is the medium that young voters use all the time and respond to. E-mails are the organizing tool of his campaign. And he also has an anti- Washington, anti-establishment rhetoric which a lot of voters do respond to very well as opposed to someone like Dick Gephardt who does better with older voters.

Miles, I'll tell you, you know what kind of candidates young voters respond to? They respond to Arnold Schwarzenegger. And 2000 they liked John McCain. And in 1998 they like Jesse Ventura.

We call them "Indie Dudes," like you and me, Miles. People who don't talk the regular political language, who aren't part of the Washington establishment, who talk about change and new faces and even risk taking. They're not conventional politicians. And that's what one of these candidates has to do tonight to get across to young voters.

O'BRIEN: Ever iconoclastic Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, independent in every way. Thanks, as always, for your insights.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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Aired November 4, 2003 - 13:02   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: It's the first Tuesday in November. That means Election Day in many places. A grab bag of state and local races being decided today from sea to shining sea. Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston are choosing mayors. Kentucky and Mississippi choosing governors. Indiana, Maine, Colorado deciding whether to open their states to gambling.
Our money's on CNN's Bill Schneider to tell us who or who will be rocking the vote. And if so, why? Bill Schneider, good to see you, sir.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Miles. Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: Let's begin in what was once the Solid South for the Democrats. Mississippi where we have a battle with an incumbent Democratic governor against Haley Barbour, a name many people out there might recognize, former Republican national chairman. What do you make of that contest?

SCHNEIDER: Very, very close. Ronnie Musgrove, like many incumbents, is fighting to survive in Mississippi. Always tough in a Deep South state, a state that went by 16 points or 17 points for George Bush over Al Gore in 2000.

That's a very close race. Haley Barbour has come in, strong Republican, Bush campaigned in Mississippi over the weekend for Haley Barbour. The issue that's come up is whether he's too Washington and not enough Mississippi. But he does have deep family roots in Mississippi. And he's running a very strong race.

O'BRIEN: And I hear turnout is good there. We'll have to watch that one very closely.

Let's move to Kentucky where President Bush was also campaigning on behalf of the Republican candidate, Representative Ernie Fletcher. That one not as close in the polls.

SCHNEIDER: Well that's right. The Republican candidate looks pretty strong. The Democratic governor is an incumbent, cannot run for a third term. There were a lot scandals including a sexual misconduct scandal associated with Governor Patton. So he's got a very bad image.

And both candidates are attempting to run on change, but the Republican is able to make a stronger case because he represents the out party and the governor is a Democrat. President Bush came into Kentucky as well to campaign. And you know what's interesting is Democrats are saying that when President Bush comes to Mississippi or Kentucky to campaign, it not only helps Republicans get out the vote, but it also helps Democrats get out the vote because there a lot of Democrats, particularly minority voters, who don't care for President Bush.

So when he comes into a state and says, This is all about me, a lot of the Democrats may be driven out to vote as well.

O'BRIEN: Now there was this whole thing which came out of California post-Schwarzenegger. Democrats are trying to spin this as no matter where it is or who it is, the incumbents are the people in trouble this go around. Do you buy that?

SCHNEIDER: Well it's an easy argument to make if all the incumbents are Democrats and they all lose. You see, Gray Davis lost. The incumbent of Kentucky is a Democrat, his party may lose. And the incumbent governor of Mississippi is a Democrat.

If they all lose the Republicans will claim bragging rights. Republicans have had a clean sweep. California, then Mississippi, then Kentucky. But the Democrats' spin is it's just because they were incumbents and that could be bad news for President Bush.

You know what I think? They may have a point. If times are tough all incumbents are in trouble and President Bush could be in trouble next year.

The problem is the economic news recently has been pretty good. And President Bush is now spinning that to his advantage and saying things are looking up.

O'BRIEN: Well that's -- it's interesting because it's kind of inside out from the Bush I presidency. At that time the first President Bush touting the war record and the economy is what got him.

In this case, President Bush, the second version, touting the economy, and Democrats are hoping the war will get him.

But for Democrats that is a course that has some peril built into it.

SCHNEIDER: Well that's right. Look, this is not 1992. Let's get that straight. Democrats were expecting, maybe even hoping it would be a rerun of '92 where the economy, stupid, was the issue. And the war in Iraq, the first Gulf War was long forgotten by the time the first President Bush faced reelection.

But this looks like it could end up being just the reverse, particularly with the terrible news coming out of Baghdad over the weekend and today, and the good news about the economy.

So there was President Bush yesterday in Alabama talking about the economy, the economy, the economy, which is the issue that trapped his father. And the Democrats are going to be talking about Iraq, Iraq, Iraq because the news from there has been very bad. It looks like it could end up being the reverse of 1992.

O'BRIEN: All right. We've got a big debate tonight. You're going to see it here on CNN. What's going to happen? Are we going to have one of those BVB, Brief Versus Boxer questions? Or what? And if so, is Dean the person that young people respond to well?

SCHNEIDER: Well, look, Dean is hoping that he can get young voters on his side because, look, he's using the Internet, which is the medium that young voters use all the time and respond to. E-mails are the organizing tool of his campaign. And he also has an anti- Washington, anti-establishment rhetoric which a lot of voters do respond to very well as opposed to someone like Dick Gephardt who does better with older voters.

Miles, I'll tell you, you know what kind of candidates young voters respond to? They respond to Arnold Schwarzenegger. And 2000 they liked John McCain. And in 1998 they like Jesse Ventura.

We call them "Indie Dudes," like you and me, Miles. People who don't talk the regular political language, who aren't part of the Washington establishment, who talk about change and new faces and even risk taking. They're not conventional politicians. And that's what one of these candidates has to do tonight to get across to young voters.

O'BRIEN: Ever iconoclastic Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, independent in every way. Thanks, as always, for your insights.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




For>