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Saudi Attack

Aired November 10, 2003 - 13:26   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With that new intelligence suggesting more attacks are to come, is the Saudi government in danger of being overthrown by al Qaeda? Middle East expert Jim Walsh at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University is with us from Boston. And Ed Hotaling, former Middle East bureau chief for CBS News and author of "Islam Without Illusions," a new book just out, joins us from Washington. Good to have you both with us.
JIM WALSH, KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Good to see you, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, Jim Walsh, let's begin with you. Is there anything about this latest attack which would lead you to believe it's not al Qaeda?

WALSH: I think al Qaeda is the best, first working hypothesis we have. It is similar to the attack that happened in May in Riyadh. Certainly al Qaeda has an interest in the future of Saudi Arabia, that's what motivates what they do. So I think they are the obvious first suspect and we'll have to wait and see if there's any contrary evidence.

O'BRIEN: Ed, would you agree with that, first of all? And put that this into historical significance, would you?

ED HOTALING, "ISLAM WITHOUT ILLUSIONS": Yes. I do agree with it. In fact, the terrorists and guerrillas in both Iraq and Saudi Arabia are attempting a revolution here and religion is their vehicle. It always has been their vehicle which is why I wrote "Islam Without Illusions."

The first day of Ramadan was marked in Baghdad marked by the attack of the al Rasheed Hotel. Now comes this attack which marks the anniversary of the first jihad led by the prophet Muhammad himself way back in the year 624.

And the threat of a new attack comes from the fact that the end of Ramadan in November 25 to 26 with the citing of a new moon is normally marked by the feast, the eve which marks the end of that. And many fear this will bring on still additional attacks and even bigger attacks.

O'BRIEN: Jim Walsh, do you agree? Are further attacks likely in store?

WALSH: That's what the Saudi government suspects and fears. You'll remember here in the United States last year during Ramadan we raised the terror threat warning level because we feared that that would be an occasional window they would seek to launch attacks.

So it's certainly a possibility. I would only add, however, that the other big factor other than religious holidays or symbolism are operational constraints. I think that has a lot to do with when these attacks take place and where they take place.

In other words, al Qaeda will launch attacks that it thinks are likely to be successful, and they're going to wait until they are ready to carry them out. So I think you also have to pay attention to those factors.

O'BRIEN: Ed, help us understand which part of the Quran these people are misappropriating to justify attacks against Muslims.

HOTALING: They're misappropriating the battle (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in the Quran, the war (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to which I devote a couple of chapters. Not only the first jihad, but Muhammad's battles after that which are conducted entirely in a seventh and eighth century context.

And the extremists and the terrorists try to translate these into modern context. But the operational point that Jim mentioned is extremely important, you know, because on the first day of Ramadan out of respect for the religion, the U.S. command actually let its guard down. It announced that it was lifting its curfew in Baghdad and possibly other cities and it was reducing the profile of the U.S. troops out of respect for the holiday.

And that's when that first attack occurred with ideal conditions, whereas in fact an understanding of Islam would show that there have been wars within Islam during Ramadan.

So although it's a peaceful month, holy month it's very common for battles to go on within Islam during Ramadan. It is no time to let your guard down.

O'BRIEN: Jim, you know, that goes right to the heart of the quandary that the U.S. faces itself in, walking that tightrope between winning the hearts and minds of the people and maintaining security. That was a show of good faith, if you will. Apparently it's backfired.

WALSH: You're absolutely right to put your finger on that, Miles. Not only with respect to U.S. policy, but now with respect to Saudi policy. Because one of the things terrorists want governments to do is to crack down and therefore create more sympathy, more recruits for their cause.

So it's a fine line you have to walk. You have to go out there, do your counterintelligence or do your intelligence operations. Go after the terrorists. But if you are heavy handed or make lots of mistakes then you create more recruits for their cause.

So I think it's a very difficult line they have to walk here.

HOTALING: Right. O'BRIEN: Ed, let's talk about one thing for just a moment. Osama bin Laden in his videotaped diatribes has said frequently the focus on Saudi Arabia is part in partial of the U.S. presence there. The U.S. presence is virtually gone if not completely gone. Why does Saudi Arabia and the kingdom itself remain a target, do you think?

HOTALING: These attacks in Riyadh, really, are the first shots in a hoped for Saudi revolution. It's gone way beyond forcing the U.S. out of the area. There's an attempt now to take advantage of the growing opposition already in Saudi Arabia to overthrow the royal family. So that these are the first shots, really the attack last may and the attack this weekend in Riyadh to overthrow the regime.

And it doesn't have to be a direct attack on the regime. It's classic terrorism where you attack the general population to terrorize the people to achieve a political aim.

O'BRIEN: Jim Walsh, the final point here. Mr. Armitage at the Sate Department, No. 2 person at the State Department, out of Cairo today saying that real difficulty is here, we have to bat a thousand and all they have to do is get one hit here and there which underscores a real problem here as we look forward here.

What can the U.S. do to tighten down security? What can Saudi Arabia do, for that matter, when we have people that have a religious cause and are bent on suicide?

WALSH: Well Mr. Armitage is right, but also you have to take a longer view. If we take a look at had the history of terrorism and the battles against terrorism here in the U.S. or in Europe during the '70s and '80s, we have had success. You can manage the problem, you can't eradicate it, but you can manage it and reduce the risk.

But that takes time and it takes good police work and it also takes policies that don't play into the hands of terrorism. And I think we've had a few of those so far. So it's difficult work, but you can be successful.

O'BRIEN: Sounds like a slog to me. All right, Jill Walsh at the Kennedy School in Boston, thank you very much. Ed Hotaling out of D.C., out with a new book, "Islam Without Illusions." Thank you for discussing this news with us.

HOTALING: Thank you, Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired November 10, 2003 - 13:26   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With that new intelligence suggesting more attacks are to come, is the Saudi government in danger of being overthrown by al Qaeda? Middle East expert Jim Walsh at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University is with us from Boston. And Ed Hotaling, former Middle East bureau chief for CBS News and author of "Islam Without Illusions," a new book just out, joins us from Washington. Good to have you both with us.
JIM WALSH, KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Good to see you, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, Jim Walsh, let's begin with you. Is there anything about this latest attack which would lead you to believe it's not al Qaeda?

WALSH: I think al Qaeda is the best, first working hypothesis we have. It is similar to the attack that happened in May in Riyadh. Certainly al Qaeda has an interest in the future of Saudi Arabia, that's what motivates what they do. So I think they are the obvious first suspect and we'll have to wait and see if there's any contrary evidence.

O'BRIEN: Ed, would you agree with that, first of all? And put that this into historical significance, would you?

ED HOTALING, "ISLAM WITHOUT ILLUSIONS": Yes. I do agree with it. In fact, the terrorists and guerrillas in both Iraq and Saudi Arabia are attempting a revolution here and religion is their vehicle. It always has been their vehicle which is why I wrote "Islam Without Illusions."

The first day of Ramadan was marked in Baghdad marked by the attack of the al Rasheed Hotel. Now comes this attack which marks the anniversary of the first jihad led by the prophet Muhammad himself way back in the year 624.

And the threat of a new attack comes from the fact that the end of Ramadan in November 25 to 26 with the citing of a new moon is normally marked by the feast, the eve which marks the end of that. And many fear this will bring on still additional attacks and even bigger attacks.

O'BRIEN: Jim Walsh, do you agree? Are further attacks likely in store?

WALSH: That's what the Saudi government suspects and fears. You'll remember here in the United States last year during Ramadan we raised the terror threat warning level because we feared that that would be an occasional window they would seek to launch attacks.

So it's certainly a possibility. I would only add, however, that the other big factor other than religious holidays or symbolism are operational constraints. I think that has a lot to do with when these attacks take place and where they take place.

In other words, al Qaeda will launch attacks that it thinks are likely to be successful, and they're going to wait until they are ready to carry them out. So I think you also have to pay attention to those factors.

O'BRIEN: Ed, help us understand which part of the Quran these people are misappropriating to justify attacks against Muslims.

HOTALING: They're misappropriating the battle (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in the Quran, the war (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to which I devote a couple of chapters. Not only the first jihad, but Muhammad's battles after that which are conducted entirely in a seventh and eighth century context.

And the extremists and the terrorists try to translate these into modern context. But the operational point that Jim mentioned is extremely important, you know, because on the first day of Ramadan out of respect for the religion, the U.S. command actually let its guard down. It announced that it was lifting its curfew in Baghdad and possibly other cities and it was reducing the profile of the U.S. troops out of respect for the holiday.

And that's when that first attack occurred with ideal conditions, whereas in fact an understanding of Islam would show that there have been wars within Islam during Ramadan.

So although it's a peaceful month, holy month it's very common for battles to go on within Islam during Ramadan. It is no time to let your guard down.

O'BRIEN: Jim, you know, that goes right to the heart of the quandary that the U.S. faces itself in, walking that tightrope between winning the hearts and minds of the people and maintaining security. That was a show of good faith, if you will. Apparently it's backfired.

WALSH: You're absolutely right to put your finger on that, Miles. Not only with respect to U.S. policy, but now with respect to Saudi policy. Because one of the things terrorists want governments to do is to crack down and therefore create more sympathy, more recruits for their cause.

So it's a fine line you have to walk. You have to go out there, do your counterintelligence or do your intelligence operations. Go after the terrorists. But if you are heavy handed or make lots of mistakes then you create more recruits for their cause.

So I think it's a very difficult line they have to walk here.

HOTALING: Right. O'BRIEN: Ed, let's talk about one thing for just a moment. Osama bin Laden in his videotaped diatribes has said frequently the focus on Saudi Arabia is part in partial of the U.S. presence there. The U.S. presence is virtually gone if not completely gone. Why does Saudi Arabia and the kingdom itself remain a target, do you think?

HOTALING: These attacks in Riyadh, really, are the first shots in a hoped for Saudi revolution. It's gone way beyond forcing the U.S. out of the area. There's an attempt now to take advantage of the growing opposition already in Saudi Arabia to overthrow the royal family. So that these are the first shots, really the attack last may and the attack this weekend in Riyadh to overthrow the regime.

And it doesn't have to be a direct attack on the regime. It's classic terrorism where you attack the general population to terrorize the people to achieve a political aim.

O'BRIEN: Jim Walsh, the final point here. Mr. Armitage at the Sate Department, No. 2 person at the State Department, out of Cairo today saying that real difficulty is here, we have to bat a thousand and all they have to do is get one hit here and there which underscores a real problem here as we look forward here.

What can the U.S. do to tighten down security? What can Saudi Arabia do, for that matter, when we have people that have a religious cause and are bent on suicide?

WALSH: Well Mr. Armitage is right, but also you have to take a longer view. If we take a look at had the history of terrorism and the battles against terrorism here in the U.S. or in Europe during the '70s and '80s, we have had success. You can manage the problem, you can't eradicate it, but you can manage it and reduce the risk.

But that takes time and it takes good police work and it also takes policies that don't play into the hands of terrorism. And I think we've had a few of those so far. So it's difficult work, but you can be successful.

O'BRIEN: Sounds like a slog to me. All right, Jill Walsh at the Kennedy School in Boston, thank you very much. Ed Hotaling out of D.C., out with a new book, "Islam Without Illusions." Thank you for discussing this news with us.

HOTALING: Thank you, Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com