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Who Is the Enemy in Iraq?

Aired November 20, 2003 - 13:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: At least one senior U.S. officer in Iraq believes there are fewer so-called foreign fighters in that country than members of the Bush administration have suggested.
David Ensor looks at who the U.S. military currently believes is fueling that resistance.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Even as video clips are appearing on Arabic-language Web sites claiming to show attacks on American forces in Iraq, U.S. intelligence is learning more about the attackers, who they are and who they are not.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The foreign terrorists are trying to create conditions of fear and retreat.

ENSOR: In fact, U.S. intelligence and military officials say, the number of foreign would-be terrorists in Iraq appears to be small.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think our numbers are -- we've found and captured about 13 foreign fighters and killed seven foreign fighters. We are not finding foreign fighters coming across the borders in significant numbers to do the fighting. We're finding mostly former regime loyalists doing that.

ENSOR: The attackers, say knowledgeable U.S. officials, include the Return Party, the most significant group, officials say. It is composed mostly of members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. They want to return Saddam to power.

Among them, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, Saddam's top deputy, for whom U.S. forces in Iraq have now offered a $10 million reward. Mohammed's Army, made up of several hundred former Iraqi intelligence and security officials, it claimed responsibility for the August 19 bombing of the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad.

The Fedayeen Saddam, members of the regime's prewar irregular militias. Muntada al-Wilaya, a Shiite group that wants an Iran-style Islamic state. Ansar-al Islam, a Sunni terrorist group with ties to al Qaeda that used to control an enclave in Northern Iraq. And the Zarqawi Group, supporters of Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian terrorist also with al Qaeda ties.

JUDITH YAPHE, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY: It's a frightening pattern of people who have no moral compunctions. ENSOR (on camera): It's a fight to the death for quite a few people?

YAPHE: For many of them, yes.

ENSOR: As for the foreign fighters, U.S. officials say they are a concern, too. But one official said the few foreigners tend to be there solo or in very small groups and they lack the knowledge of Iraq and the weapons that are in the hands of remnants of Saddam's regime.

David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And so the situation in Iraq, the terrorist attacks abroad in general, posing a unique dilemma for the U.S. and the West. How do you fight an enemy you can barely identify?

Let's talk about that a little more. We're joined by one of our favorite experts, Jim Walsh. He is a security and terrorism analyst at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

Jim, good to have you back with us.

JIM WALSH, JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Good to see you, Miles.

And before we say anything more, I have to say, I think you were robbed. Last year, Anderson Cooper gets sexiest journalist. This year, the good doctor. When will justice be done? That's my question.

O'BRIEN: We'll just leave it at that. That was not a plant, folks. We'll leave it at that.

(LAUGHTER)

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about much more serious subjects. This whole notion of foreign forces coming into Iraq, it seems as if some of the military commanders on the ground there are actually flying in the face of what the administration is saying in Washington. I guess, in the final analysis, it probably doesn't matter on a certain level who it is, as long as the attacks are continuing.

WALSH: Yes, I think that's right.

Whether there are a lot or a little, these attacks seem to be increasing in number and increasing in sophistication. But it's not unimportant. It seems to me, if there were large numbers of foreign fighters coming in, that would be one indicator that would suggest that al Qaeda is using the Iraq war for the purposes of recruitment and were being successful at that.

So I think it's an important indicator to watch. And, frankly, I don't think we have the final word here. This is probably like a lot of stories in Iraq. You hear one thing one day. And then a month later, it turns out that there's a different way of looking at it. And then it changes again. So I think we ought to keep an open mind about this particular issue.

O'BRIEN: I guess another question might be, are we giving al Qaeda too much credit? The burden of proof has sort of changed. You have to disprove the notion that al Qaeda is responsible whenever a bomb goes off anywhere in the world.

WALSH: It's a great point, Miles, in part because all of us experts or journalists, we're looking for a shorthand way to communicate. And it's easier just to use the phrase al Qaeda. And then, pretty soon, everyone thinks every terrorist attack is al Qaeda, when, in reality, al Qaeda is actually a relatively small organization with made members and then has affiliations with other local groups.

And so I think it's smart to withhold judgment about who is responsible until all the evidence is in. Now, that said, in Turkey, when you have two near simultaneous attack, large explosions, and a month where there have been a series of attack, it's understandable that people would think that that's al Qaeda.

O'BRIEN: Well, that whole idea of simultaneous explosions certainly a hallmark of al Qaeda. But, of course, it's no secret that that's a hallmark of al Qaeda. And if you wanted to impersonate them, I suppose you could do so.

Why Turkey? Why now? Are they after -- are they trying to short-circuit the Turkish economy, stop tourists from visiting, that kind of thing?

WALSH: Well, there are probably, like a lot of these things, multiple motivations. It certainly will hurt the Turkish economy.

The U.S. is warning Americans about visiting Turkey. It may also be a way to get at President Bush and Tony Blair, who are meeting in Britain. It may be a way to try to attack Turkey itself and to undermine it. Now, of course, this is ironic. Turkey, while a secular state is run -- the government is run by an Islamic party. And, of course, Turkey did not participate in the Iraq war. But that doesn't seem to stop these guys.

And the final thing, it might be just easier. It's probably easier to attack Turkey than it is to try to attack Americans in America or in Great Britain.

O'BRIEN: Easier because it is a pluralistic society. It is a parliamentary system, even though it does have Islamic roots in it.

WALSH: Yes, easier on a number of different levels.

First of all, it's closer. It's physically proximate to areas that may be a safe haven for al Qaeda or for other Islamist groups. Secondly, we've not had a lot of attacks in Turkey. And so the level of security there was probably lower than it is, for example, in the United States after 9/11. And, finally, there is a community of people in that part of the world, and in Turkey in particular, who may share some of the values of al Qaeda or others. And it would be easier to execute an operation and then to get out without being caught.

So all those make it operationally easier to do it in Turkey than to do it in Europe or in the U.S.

O'BRIEN: Jim Walsh, thanks very much.

WALSH: Thank you, Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 20, 2003 - 13:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: At least one senior U.S. officer in Iraq believes there are fewer so-called foreign fighters in that country than members of the Bush administration have suggested.
David Ensor looks at who the U.S. military currently believes is fueling that resistance.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Even as video clips are appearing on Arabic-language Web sites claiming to show attacks on American forces in Iraq, U.S. intelligence is learning more about the attackers, who they are and who they are not.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The foreign terrorists are trying to create conditions of fear and retreat.

ENSOR: In fact, U.S. intelligence and military officials say, the number of foreign would-be terrorists in Iraq appears to be small.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think our numbers are -- we've found and captured about 13 foreign fighters and killed seven foreign fighters. We are not finding foreign fighters coming across the borders in significant numbers to do the fighting. We're finding mostly former regime loyalists doing that.

ENSOR: The attackers, say knowledgeable U.S. officials, include the Return Party, the most significant group, officials say. It is composed mostly of members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. They want to return Saddam to power.

Among them, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, Saddam's top deputy, for whom U.S. forces in Iraq have now offered a $10 million reward. Mohammed's Army, made up of several hundred former Iraqi intelligence and security officials, it claimed responsibility for the August 19 bombing of the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad.

The Fedayeen Saddam, members of the regime's prewar irregular militias. Muntada al-Wilaya, a Shiite group that wants an Iran-style Islamic state. Ansar-al Islam, a Sunni terrorist group with ties to al Qaeda that used to control an enclave in Northern Iraq. And the Zarqawi Group, supporters of Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian terrorist also with al Qaeda ties.

JUDITH YAPHE, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY: It's a frightening pattern of people who have no moral compunctions. ENSOR (on camera): It's a fight to the death for quite a few people?

YAPHE: For many of them, yes.

ENSOR: As for the foreign fighters, U.S. officials say they are a concern, too. But one official said the few foreigners tend to be there solo or in very small groups and they lack the knowledge of Iraq and the weapons that are in the hands of remnants of Saddam's regime.

David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And so the situation in Iraq, the terrorist attacks abroad in general, posing a unique dilemma for the U.S. and the West. How do you fight an enemy you can barely identify?

Let's talk about that a little more. We're joined by one of our favorite experts, Jim Walsh. He is a security and terrorism analyst at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

Jim, good to have you back with us.

JIM WALSH, JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Good to see you, Miles.

And before we say anything more, I have to say, I think you were robbed. Last year, Anderson Cooper gets sexiest journalist. This year, the good doctor. When will justice be done? That's my question.

O'BRIEN: We'll just leave it at that. That was not a plant, folks. We'll leave it at that.

(LAUGHTER)

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about much more serious subjects. This whole notion of foreign forces coming into Iraq, it seems as if some of the military commanders on the ground there are actually flying in the face of what the administration is saying in Washington. I guess, in the final analysis, it probably doesn't matter on a certain level who it is, as long as the attacks are continuing.

WALSH: Yes, I think that's right.

Whether there are a lot or a little, these attacks seem to be increasing in number and increasing in sophistication. But it's not unimportant. It seems to me, if there were large numbers of foreign fighters coming in, that would be one indicator that would suggest that al Qaeda is using the Iraq war for the purposes of recruitment and were being successful at that.

So I think it's an important indicator to watch. And, frankly, I don't think we have the final word here. This is probably like a lot of stories in Iraq. You hear one thing one day. And then a month later, it turns out that there's a different way of looking at it. And then it changes again. So I think we ought to keep an open mind about this particular issue.

O'BRIEN: I guess another question might be, are we giving al Qaeda too much credit? The burden of proof has sort of changed. You have to disprove the notion that al Qaeda is responsible whenever a bomb goes off anywhere in the world.

WALSH: It's a great point, Miles, in part because all of us experts or journalists, we're looking for a shorthand way to communicate. And it's easier just to use the phrase al Qaeda. And then, pretty soon, everyone thinks every terrorist attack is al Qaeda, when, in reality, al Qaeda is actually a relatively small organization with made members and then has affiliations with other local groups.

And so I think it's smart to withhold judgment about who is responsible until all the evidence is in. Now, that said, in Turkey, when you have two near simultaneous attack, large explosions, and a month where there have been a series of attack, it's understandable that people would think that that's al Qaeda.

O'BRIEN: Well, that whole idea of simultaneous explosions certainly a hallmark of al Qaeda. But, of course, it's no secret that that's a hallmark of al Qaeda. And if you wanted to impersonate them, I suppose you could do so.

Why Turkey? Why now? Are they after -- are they trying to short-circuit the Turkish economy, stop tourists from visiting, that kind of thing?

WALSH: Well, there are probably, like a lot of these things, multiple motivations. It certainly will hurt the Turkish economy.

The U.S. is warning Americans about visiting Turkey. It may also be a way to get at President Bush and Tony Blair, who are meeting in Britain. It may be a way to try to attack Turkey itself and to undermine it. Now, of course, this is ironic. Turkey, while a secular state is run -- the government is run by an Islamic party. And, of course, Turkey did not participate in the Iraq war. But that doesn't seem to stop these guys.

And the final thing, it might be just easier. It's probably easier to attack Turkey than it is to try to attack Americans in America or in Great Britain.

O'BRIEN: Easier because it is a pluralistic society. It is a parliamentary system, even though it does have Islamic roots in it.

WALSH: Yes, easier on a number of different levels.

First of all, it's closer. It's physically proximate to areas that may be a safe haven for al Qaeda or for other Islamist groups. Secondly, we've not had a lot of attacks in Turkey. And so the level of security there was probably lower than it is, for example, in the United States after 9/11. And, finally, there is a community of people in that part of the world, and in Turkey in particular, who may share some of the values of al Qaeda or others. And it would be easier to execute an operation and then to get out without being caught.

So all those make it operationally easier to do it in Turkey than to do it in Europe or in the U.S.

O'BRIEN: Jim Walsh, thanks very much.

WALSH: Thank you, Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com