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America's Voices: Dean and the Moon

Aired December 09, 2003 - 14:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, it makes you wonder how the endorsement by Al Gore of Howard Dean will affect tonight's Democratic debate in New Hampshire. Gallup poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport is tracking the numbers, joins us from Princeton, New Jersey.
Frank, have you noticed any shifts among Democratic candidates? Do you have any -- do you have numbers that are that current to indicate how the race is right now?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, no numbers since the endorsement earlier this morning. But this weekend, our very recent CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll right before the Gore leakage of the endorsement, Miles, showed a milestone to us in our polling nationally. Dean had already moved out ahead substantially as the front-runner. That's the first time we've seen that in our national CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll all season.

The current 8-point lead by Dean is over 25 percent over 17 from his nearest competitor, retired General Wesley Clark. And below that's Gephardt, Lieberman and then Kerry and Edwards. Look how low they are at 7 percent.

In fact, let me zero in and show you the tale of two candidates. John Kerry and then we can show you Howard Dean. The trajectory since April, up to where we are right now, shows that Kerry was at 17, Dean was unknown in April at 6. Look how Dean's line has gone up. Kerry has been in freefall, he's now down to just 7 percent of the Democratic vote nationally.

And again, Howard Dean before the Gore endorsement, before the debate tonight, already the front-runner at 25 percent of the Democratic vote nationally.

They're going to have to face Bush, Miles. I thought I would show you his approval rating, now back up to 55 percent. It's been hovering in that 50 to 56 percent range all fall. Any incumbent seeking reelection who has above that 50 percent looks pretty good. And right now that 55 number's solid for George Bush -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Let's look at ways he might be able to improve in those numbers. For example, Medicare reform. Is that registering with voters?

NEWPORT: We don't think that's a home run for Bush or the Republicans, at least not yet. Of course, some of the provisions won't even come into effect until 2006. So we really may not know how it affects seniors until then.

But our initial read is that Americans 65 and over are very sensitive to the whole issue. Only 35 percent of the weekend approving of how bush's handling prescription drugs. And look at this. We said will this new plan benefit you or hurt you economically? These are just senior citizens, 65 and over, 58 percent said have no impact at all. And only 15 percent, a lonely 15 percent are convinced it's going to help them financially.

So clearly the jury is out on any kind of positive political impact from that prescription drug new Medicare law that Bush just signed into law on Monday morning.

O'BRIEN: All right, Frank. Now to my favorite story. Trial balloon floated out there about possibility that NASA might rejigger its goals and possibly include in their goals a trip back to the moon. The president might announce something, perhaps as soon as the centennial flight December 17, maybe later. Nevertheless, what do people think about all that?

NEWPORT: Well, the concept gets a bare majority of approval. We floated that, just like you said, over the weekend. Send a man, astronauts back to the moon after all these (UNINTELLIGIBLE) years since the Apollo program shut down, 53 percent say yes.

I should point out, however, when we ask the question, would you be willing to spend billions of U.S. dollars, the percent drops way below 50 percent.

But, Miles, I looked back historically in the early '60s when Kennedy made his stirring speech, Before the decade's out, we'll send a man on the moon, there was also a lot of weariness on the part of the public then about spending all the money. So that's kind of traditionally the case.

So I think this is the key number. A majority say yes, good idea. Let's go back to the moon.

O'BRIEN: Well, they say support for space is 1,000 miles wide and an inch deep. So I guess that indicates that. They think it's cool but maybe don't want to pay the bills.

Frank Newport, always a pleasure having you drop by. Appreciate you sharing those numbers with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 9, 2003 - 14:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, it makes you wonder how the endorsement by Al Gore of Howard Dean will affect tonight's Democratic debate in New Hampshire. Gallup poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport is tracking the numbers, joins us from Princeton, New Jersey.
Frank, have you noticed any shifts among Democratic candidates? Do you have any -- do you have numbers that are that current to indicate how the race is right now?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, no numbers since the endorsement earlier this morning. But this weekend, our very recent CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll right before the Gore leakage of the endorsement, Miles, showed a milestone to us in our polling nationally. Dean had already moved out ahead substantially as the front-runner. That's the first time we've seen that in our national CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll all season.

The current 8-point lead by Dean is over 25 percent over 17 from his nearest competitor, retired General Wesley Clark. And below that's Gephardt, Lieberman and then Kerry and Edwards. Look how low they are at 7 percent.

In fact, let me zero in and show you the tale of two candidates. John Kerry and then we can show you Howard Dean. The trajectory since April, up to where we are right now, shows that Kerry was at 17, Dean was unknown in April at 6. Look how Dean's line has gone up. Kerry has been in freefall, he's now down to just 7 percent of the Democratic vote nationally.

And again, Howard Dean before the Gore endorsement, before the debate tonight, already the front-runner at 25 percent of the Democratic vote nationally.

They're going to have to face Bush, Miles. I thought I would show you his approval rating, now back up to 55 percent. It's been hovering in that 50 to 56 percent range all fall. Any incumbent seeking reelection who has above that 50 percent looks pretty good. And right now that 55 number's solid for George Bush -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Let's look at ways he might be able to improve in those numbers. For example, Medicare reform. Is that registering with voters?

NEWPORT: We don't think that's a home run for Bush or the Republicans, at least not yet. Of course, some of the provisions won't even come into effect until 2006. So we really may not know how it affects seniors until then.

But our initial read is that Americans 65 and over are very sensitive to the whole issue. Only 35 percent of the weekend approving of how bush's handling prescription drugs. And look at this. We said will this new plan benefit you or hurt you economically? These are just senior citizens, 65 and over, 58 percent said have no impact at all. And only 15 percent, a lonely 15 percent are convinced it's going to help them financially.

So clearly the jury is out on any kind of positive political impact from that prescription drug new Medicare law that Bush just signed into law on Monday morning.

O'BRIEN: All right, Frank. Now to my favorite story. Trial balloon floated out there about possibility that NASA might rejigger its goals and possibly include in their goals a trip back to the moon. The president might announce something, perhaps as soon as the centennial flight December 17, maybe later. Nevertheless, what do people think about all that?

NEWPORT: Well, the concept gets a bare majority of approval. We floated that, just like you said, over the weekend. Send a man, astronauts back to the moon after all these (UNINTELLIGIBLE) years since the Apollo program shut down, 53 percent say yes.

I should point out, however, when we ask the question, would you be willing to spend billions of U.S. dollars, the percent drops way below 50 percent.

But, Miles, I looked back historically in the early '60s when Kennedy made his stirring speech, Before the decade's out, we'll send a man on the moon, there was also a lot of weariness on the part of the public then about spending all the money. So that's kind of traditionally the case.

So I think this is the key number. A majority say yes, good idea. Let's go back to the moon.

O'BRIEN: Well, they say support for space is 1,000 miles wide and an inch deep. So I guess that indicates that. They think it's cool but maybe don't want to pay the bills.

Frank Newport, always a pleasure having you drop by. Appreciate you sharing those numbers with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com