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Analysis With Don Shepperd, David Grange

Aired December 30, 2003 - 14:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: In Afghanistan, U.S. forces are wrapping up what they call their biggest operation since the fall of the Taliban. It was called Operation Avalanche. And as it's name implies, more than 2,000 forces barreled down on rebel holdouts in southern and eastern Afghanistan.
Even though there were no major skirmishes, coalition forces conducted hundreds of patrols. They killed at least 10 suspected rebels and captured more than 100 others in the four-week operation. They also seized several weapons caches, we are told.

Now U.S. troops are in dangerous duty in Afghanistan and many other places around the globe as you know. We're going to take a look at where they're and what they're doing, how things are going and what may lie ahead.

To handle all of that, we check in with the guys who are the experts, "generally" speaking. Retired Brigadier General David Grange. He's in Madison, Wisconsin, near the farm. And retired Major General Don Shepperd in Tucson, Arizona near the golf course. Gentlemen, good to have you both with us.

We don't have much time. We want cover a lot of ground. So we're going to go right to the global and start our instant globe trotting and you will provide your prognostications for what may lie ahead.

First, let's zoom in. We were talking about Afghanistan, Operation Avalanche. Don Shepherd what's your take on Afghanistan now and in the future?

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Still a tough territory, Miles. We're going to be there a long time. The key to Afghanistan is the ongoing operations against the al Qaeda that are seeping back in from Western Pakistan. Pakistan remains the key to Afghanistan as we spread security across the country. Still a tough neighborhood for a long time to come.

O'BRIEN: Dave Grange, Afghanistan?

BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Afghanistan, a couple thousand GIs on patrol, maybe 10 Taliban killed, hundreds captured. Maybe it doesn't seem like a lot but what's key is presence patrol. Maintain the pressure on insurgents, at the same time helping the people of Afghanistan get back on their feet and make the place better than with we found it. O'BRIEN: All right, let's move from Afghanistan to Iraq. And that's obviously one that we could spend a whole segment on. Don Shepperd, what's your situation on the take in Iraq now and in the next year?

SHEPPERD: Again, the key is providing security there, trying to make it better. We're walking a fine line between providing security and getting the Iraqis ready to take over their own security. The key there is to walk this line so that when we leave they're strong enough to keep the Ba'athists out, keep a civil war from taking place and a radical Islamic regime from taking place in the south.

But we're going to be there a while as this goes on, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Dave Grange?

GRANGE: The key thing is not to let political pressure try to speed up the process of a transition between a coalition forces and the Iraqi police, Iraqi civil defense and the military as they take over most of those duties. Do it right, and otherwise, we shouldn't have done it to begin with. And so it's going to take a little while to do it.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's move halfway around the globe now from Iraq. Let's go to Korea, a place we've been talking a lot about this year. How about in 2004? Is it going to be a similar story? Are we going to see a resolution? Don Shepperd.

SHEPPERD: Hard to see if we're going to see resolution in 1004, but continued diplomacy as opposed to military action is the outlook here. The key is what North Korea decides to do with its nuclear programs in exchange for its own security and, of course, feeding its people.

China is the key here, Miles. China has to keep the pressure on. And the alternative is if North Korea continues, you're going to see a nuclear Japan that changes the whole outlook in the Pacific. This is, again, another tough territory in a tough world.

O'BRIEN: Boy, a nuclear Japan. That's another segment there. Dave Grange, go ahead.

GRANGE: Well I think you'll see a bit of a decrease in U.S. force presence, especially the Army, in South Korea.

But keep in mind, in Korea this situation is -- they're rather boxed in. You have very powerful nations surrounding North Korea, and to include South Korea which the U.S. trained for over 50 years.

O'BRIEN: All right, from South Korea let's go back to the map and all the way around to Libya which came right back into the news for us this year. A sudden announcement, an announcement that took many of us by surprise that Colonel Gadhafi is renouncing weapons of mass destruction.

Don Shepperd, is Libya about to enter the world of nations in every way and as a full partner?

SHEPPERD: We hope so. This is -- for the first time we've had good news out of Libya for a long time. For his own reasons Gadhafi had decided to do this reportedly -- some say out of fear, some say out of desire to make his country a member of the community and increase its riches. It is potentially a very rich nation. Others say it's to disarm Israel and that buy weapons from other places. We don't know, but this is a very encouraging sign, Miles.

O'BRIEN: A lot of people scratching their heads over this one, Dave Grange. What are your thoughts on Libya and Colonel Gadhafi?

GRANGE: He needs to be watched. He was the one that ordered several terrorist attacks that killed different nationalities to include Americans. So I would be very skeptical about watching him very, very closely.

O'BRIEN: Let's -- as long as we're on the subject of the possibility of weapons of mass destruction, let's go from Libya to Iran. Appears to be progress there as U.N. weapons inspectors apparently getting to the point where they have some sense of the Iranians' intent and desire on nuclear weapons. Is this real progress, Don Shepperd?

SHEPPERD: Again, it looks like there's progress, but the key is the U.N. inspections here not U.S. inspections. What we want to do is make sure that Iran does not become a nuclear power. That changes the whole face there in the Middle East. You have the ongoing struggle in Iran between the radical Islamists there and also the more moderate factions.

Hopefully, we can reestablish relations with Iran because Iran is the real key country in this area. They are very important to the future of what goes on in the world of terrorism around the world.

O'BRIEN: Dave Grange, would you go along with that?

GRANGE: I would. The key thing is containing a nuclear program which is hard to do because they can spin up the military aspects of that very quickly. But keep in mind there's a sleeping dog out, there that's the Hezbollah which Iran sponsors.

O'BRIEN: All right, gentlemen, we covered a lot of turf. We wanted to do a little more but as far as television goes that's as good as you get. General Dave Grange, General Don Shepperd, happy new year to you both. Always appreciate your insights.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired December 30, 2003 - 14:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: In Afghanistan, U.S. forces are wrapping up what they call their biggest operation since the fall of the Taliban. It was called Operation Avalanche. And as it's name implies, more than 2,000 forces barreled down on rebel holdouts in southern and eastern Afghanistan.
Even though there were no major skirmishes, coalition forces conducted hundreds of patrols. They killed at least 10 suspected rebels and captured more than 100 others in the four-week operation. They also seized several weapons caches, we are told.

Now U.S. troops are in dangerous duty in Afghanistan and many other places around the globe as you know. We're going to take a look at where they're and what they're doing, how things are going and what may lie ahead.

To handle all of that, we check in with the guys who are the experts, "generally" speaking. Retired Brigadier General David Grange. He's in Madison, Wisconsin, near the farm. And retired Major General Don Shepperd in Tucson, Arizona near the golf course. Gentlemen, good to have you both with us.

We don't have much time. We want cover a lot of ground. So we're going to go right to the global and start our instant globe trotting and you will provide your prognostications for what may lie ahead.

First, let's zoom in. We were talking about Afghanistan, Operation Avalanche. Don Shepherd what's your take on Afghanistan now and in the future?

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Still a tough territory, Miles. We're going to be there a long time. The key to Afghanistan is the ongoing operations against the al Qaeda that are seeping back in from Western Pakistan. Pakistan remains the key to Afghanistan as we spread security across the country. Still a tough neighborhood for a long time to come.

O'BRIEN: Dave Grange, Afghanistan?

BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Afghanistan, a couple thousand GIs on patrol, maybe 10 Taliban killed, hundreds captured. Maybe it doesn't seem like a lot but what's key is presence patrol. Maintain the pressure on insurgents, at the same time helping the people of Afghanistan get back on their feet and make the place better than with we found it. O'BRIEN: All right, let's move from Afghanistan to Iraq. And that's obviously one that we could spend a whole segment on. Don Shepperd, what's your situation on the take in Iraq now and in the next year?

SHEPPERD: Again, the key is providing security there, trying to make it better. We're walking a fine line between providing security and getting the Iraqis ready to take over their own security. The key there is to walk this line so that when we leave they're strong enough to keep the Ba'athists out, keep a civil war from taking place and a radical Islamic regime from taking place in the south.

But we're going to be there a while as this goes on, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Dave Grange?

GRANGE: The key thing is not to let political pressure try to speed up the process of a transition between a coalition forces and the Iraqi police, Iraqi civil defense and the military as they take over most of those duties. Do it right, and otherwise, we shouldn't have done it to begin with. And so it's going to take a little while to do it.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's move halfway around the globe now from Iraq. Let's go to Korea, a place we've been talking a lot about this year. How about in 2004? Is it going to be a similar story? Are we going to see a resolution? Don Shepperd.

SHEPPERD: Hard to see if we're going to see resolution in 1004, but continued diplomacy as opposed to military action is the outlook here. The key is what North Korea decides to do with its nuclear programs in exchange for its own security and, of course, feeding its people.

China is the key here, Miles. China has to keep the pressure on. And the alternative is if North Korea continues, you're going to see a nuclear Japan that changes the whole outlook in the Pacific. This is, again, another tough territory in a tough world.

O'BRIEN: Boy, a nuclear Japan. That's another segment there. Dave Grange, go ahead.

GRANGE: Well I think you'll see a bit of a decrease in U.S. force presence, especially the Army, in South Korea.

But keep in mind, in Korea this situation is -- they're rather boxed in. You have very powerful nations surrounding North Korea, and to include South Korea which the U.S. trained for over 50 years.

O'BRIEN: All right, from South Korea let's go back to the map and all the way around to Libya which came right back into the news for us this year. A sudden announcement, an announcement that took many of us by surprise that Colonel Gadhafi is renouncing weapons of mass destruction.

Don Shepperd, is Libya about to enter the world of nations in every way and as a full partner?

SHEPPERD: We hope so. This is -- for the first time we've had good news out of Libya for a long time. For his own reasons Gadhafi had decided to do this reportedly -- some say out of fear, some say out of desire to make his country a member of the community and increase its riches. It is potentially a very rich nation. Others say it's to disarm Israel and that buy weapons from other places. We don't know, but this is a very encouraging sign, Miles.

O'BRIEN: A lot of people scratching their heads over this one, Dave Grange. What are your thoughts on Libya and Colonel Gadhafi?

GRANGE: He needs to be watched. He was the one that ordered several terrorist attacks that killed different nationalities to include Americans. So I would be very skeptical about watching him very, very closely.

O'BRIEN: Let's -- as long as we're on the subject of the possibility of weapons of mass destruction, let's go from Libya to Iran. Appears to be progress there as U.N. weapons inspectors apparently getting to the point where they have some sense of the Iranians' intent and desire on nuclear weapons. Is this real progress, Don Shepperd?

SHEPPERD: Again, it looks like there's progress, but the key is the U.N. inspections here not U.S. inspections. What we want to do is make sure that Iran does not become a nuclear power. That changes the whole face there in the Middle East. You have the ongoing struggle in Iran between the radical Islamists there and also the more moderate factions.

Hopefully, we can reestablish relations with Iran because Iran is the real key country in this area. They are very important to the future of what goes on in the world of terrorism around the world.

O'BRIEN: Dave Grange, would you go along with that?

GRANGE: I would. The key thing is containing a nuclear program which is hard to do because they can spin up the military aspects of that very quickly. But keep in mind there's a sleeping dog out, there that's the Hezbollah which Iran sponsors.

O'BRIEN: All right, gentlemen, we covered a lot of turf. We wanted to do a little more but as far as television goes that's as good as you get. General Dave Grange, General Don Shepperd, happy new year to you both. Always appreciate your insights.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com