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Top Democrats Have Shifted Strategies, Rhetoric Since Iowa
Aired January 27, 2004 - 13:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: You might say the campaign process itself shapes candidates in many ways. The top Democrats certainly have shifted their strategies if not their rhetoric, since the pre- Iowa days, and even in the ancient days of this campaign.
And during those ancient days "USA Today"'s Walter Shapiro was out there with them. He's been covering it since the earliest of rallies. He's in Manchester, joining us now.
Walter, good to have you back with us.
WALTER SHAPIRO, "USA TODAY": Great to be here.
O'BRIEN: All right. It's a long, strange trip. Undoubtedly, there's lots of things you'd like to share with us. Let's try to boil a few things down.
Watching the campaigns, who is the most improved campaign -- not just candidate, campaign in general?
SHAPIRO: I think the most improved campaign is John Edwards. I think John Edwards is the candidate who is connected this early, most directly, with the voters, with his new stump speech in the last -- in Iowa.
I think his problem here in New Hampshire is there's only eight days between Iowa and New Hampshire. Probably not enough for him to get anything like the vault he got in Iowa.
But he has run as an outsider, a little known, first-term senator. He has probably run the most technically proficient campaign. And still the fact that he is here and Dick Gephardt isn't says something about what a good candidate he is.
O'BRIEN: I suppose you can make a pretty strong case he doesn't really need to show very well because when things move to the South he has advantages, right?
SHAPIRO: Exactly. He has to show in South Carolina on February 3 and then follow up in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10.
O'BRIEN: What is the biggest underachieving campaign, in your estimation?
SHAPIRO: Well, it -- what's so fascinating about these questions is that the answers vary by week. Two weeks ago, I would have said John Kerry. Now, he's almost close to overachieving here.
O'BRIEN: I thought you would have given him most improved because of how it's turned around.
SHAPIRO: What's really fascinating is that Kerry is not that improved as a candidate. The John Kerry I saw Sunday night in Hanover was, with 5 percent improvement, the same John Kerry I've been seeing throughout this long process, since I first came to New Hampshire with Kerry in August of 2002.
He has many strengths, but he is not a flawless campaigner.
(CROSSTALK)
O'BRIEN: Has the media decided they like John Kerry more or have voters themselves decided?
SHAPIRO: He basically was the safe harbor when Howard Dean caused too many doubts in the mind of too many voters. I mean to extent there -- lots Dedicated Dean supporters are now moving over to Kerry. This may stop happening post-New Hampshire, but for the moment, Kerry happened to be the lucky beneficiary and also comfortingly familiar to New Hampshire voters because he had been here for 20 years, on TV sets, from Boston media.
So in a sense, Kerry is not the recreated campaign so much as he is the obvious beneficiary of first Clark and then Dean's declines.
O'BRIEN: All right, so back to the question, then. What's the biggest underachiever currently then?
SHAPIRO: Absolutely Howard Dean. Howard Dean is the candidate who both overachieved beyond his wildest expectations in 2003. Never before in history have we had an insurgent candidate who also was the candidate with the most endorsements and the most money.
But even before a certain episode on election night in Iowa, Howard Dean had run into problems. His message was more about a movement than it was about how he could change people's lives. And when you start to decide that you'd rather be the head of a movement than a presidential candidate, you run into problems in the primaries.
I still think there is time for Dean to rebound post-New Hampshire. So I'm not writing him off in any but right now, he is so underachieving compared to where anyone in the campaign expected it to be two weeks ago.
O'BRIEN: So really in one sentence, you gave him the biggest overachiever then the biggest underachiever. It shows you how this thing has swung.
SHAPIRO: Because even now, even when Kerry seems poised to win New Hampshire, judging on pre-election polls, the story is still Howard Dean, in the sense that Howard Dean is the phenom, the phenomenon. John Kerry is solid, responsible war hero, solid campaigner. But the dramatic story line is invariably Howard Dean or John Edwards or General Clark or Joe Lieberman. If they somehow catch fire and surprise us all with a strong third place they can be part of the story line tomorrow morning.
O'BRIEN: Give us a sense -- and this includes people behind the scenes as well as people we see on the cameras. Who is the most valuable player in your estimation?
SHAPIRO: The most valuable player behind the camera? Oh, God, I would have said Joe Trippi -- I still probably will say Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's campaign manager. But honorable mention may go to Elizabeth Edwards, Howard -- John Edwards' wife.
And also the joint funds jointly held by Teresa Heinz and John Kerry that John Kerry could borrow against legally to pour $6 million into his campaign.
(CROSSTALK)
O'BRIEN: .. that could give you MVP status if you're following money in this case, right?
Why Edwards' wife? What is it about her...
SHAPIRO: Why Edwards' wife? Because John -- Elizabeth Edwards, in addition to being a dedicated campaigner and somebody who is deeply involved in a lot of the decisions of the campaign is just one of these people in the campaign year that everyone likes. Friends, foes, supporters.
A state senator in New Hampshire by the name of Lou D'Alasandro (ph) who endorsed Edwards told me when I was writing my book, "One Car Caravan," that if Elizabeth Edwards was on the ticket, he would have endorsed a lot earlier. This is the effect she has on people.
O'BRIEN: Walter Shapiro, and we did not mention the book, you just snuck it in there. We'll mention it again, "One Car Caravan." There it is. Got the cover on there for you.
SHAPIRO: Wonderful. It looks beautiful.
O'BRIEN: We're always happy to oblige you, sir. Thank you for dropping by. We hope you enjoy whatever unfolds this evening. Thank you very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Iowa>
Aired January 27, 2004 - 13:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: You might say the campaign process itself shapes candidates in many ways. The top Democrats certainly have shifted their strategies if not their rhetoric, since the pre- Iowa days, and even in the ancient days of this campaign.
And during those ancient days "USA Today"'s Walter Shapiro was out there with them. He's been covering it since the earliest of rallies. He's in Manchester, joining us now.
Walter, good to have you back with us.
WALTER SHAPIRO, "USA TODAY": Great to be here.
O'BRIEN: All right. It's a long, strange trip. Undoubtedly, there's lots of things you'd like to share with us. Let's try to boil a few things down.
Watching the campaigns, who is the most improved campaign -- not just candidate, campaign in general?
SHAPIRO: I think the most improved campaign is John Edwards. I think John Edwards is the candidate who is connected this early, most directly, with the voters, with his new stump speech in the last -- in Iowa.
I think his problem here in New Hampshire is there's only eight days between Iowa and New Hampshire. Probably not enough for him to get anything like the vault he got in Iowa.
But he has run as an outsider, a little known, first-term senator. He has probably run the most technically proficient campaign. And still the fact that he is here and Dick Gephardt isn't says something about what a good candidate he is.
O'BRIEN: I suppose you can make a pretty strong case he doesn't really need to show very well because when things move to the South he has advantages, right?
SHAPIRO: Exactly. He has to show in South Carolina on February 3 and then follow up in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10.
O'BRIEN: What is the biggest underachieving campaign, in your estimation?
SHAPIRO: Well, it -- what's so fascinating about these questions is that the answers vary by week. Two weeks ago, I would have said John Kerry. Now, he's almost close to overachieving here.
O'BRIEN: I thought you would have given him most improved because of how it's turned around.
SHAPIRO: What's really fascinating is that Kerry is not that improved as a candidate. The John Kerry I saw Sunday night in Hanover was, with 5 percent improvement, the same John Kerry I've been seeing throughout this long process, since I first came to New Hampshire with Kerry in August of 2002.
He has many strengths, but he is not a flawless campaigner.
(CROSSTALK)
O'BRIEN: Has the media decided they like John Kerry more or have voters themselves decided?
SHAPIRO: He basically was the safe harbor when Howard Dean caused too many doubts in the mind of too many voters. I mean to extent there -- lots Dedicated Dean supporters are now moving over to Kerry. This may stop happening post-New Hampshire, but for the moment, Kerry happened to be the lucky beneficiary and also comfortingly familiar to New Hampshire voters because he had been here for 20 years, on TV sets, from Boston media.
So in a sense, Kerry is not the recreated campaign so much as he is the obvious beneficiary of first Clark and then Dean's declines.
O'BRIEN: All right, so back to the question, then. What's the biggest underachiever currently then?
SHAPIRO: Absolutely Howard Dean. Howard Dean is the candidate who both overachieved beyond his wildest expectations in 2003. Never before in history have we had an insurgent candidate who also was the candidate with the most endorsements and the most money.
But even before a certain episode on election night in Iowa, Howard Dean had run into problems. His message was more about a movement than it was about how he could change people's lives. And when you start to decide that you'd rather be the head of a movement than a presidential candidate, you run into problems in the primaries.
I still think there is time for Dean to rebound post-New Hampshire. So I'm not writing him off in any but right now, he is so underachieving compared to where anyone in the campaign expected it to be two weeks ago.
O'BRIEN: So really in one sentence, you gave him the biggest overachiever then the biggest underachiever. It shows you how this thing has swung.
SHAPIRO: Because even now, even when Kerry seems poised to win New Hampshire, judging on pre-election polls, the story is still Howard Dean, in the sense that Howard Dean is the phenom, the phenomenon. John Kerry is solid, responsible war hero, solid campaigner. But the dramatic story line is invariably Howard Dean or John Edwards or General Clark or Joe Lieberman. If they somehow catch fire and surprise us all with a strong third place they can be part of the story line tomorrow morning.
O'BRIEN: Give us a sense -- and this includes people behind the scenes as well as people we see on the cameras. Who is the most valuable player in your estimation?
SHAPIRO: The most valuable player behind the camera? Oh, God, I would have said Joe Trippi -- I still probably will say Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's campaign manager. But honorable mention may go to Elizabeth Edwards, Howard -- John Edwards' wife.
And also the joint funds jointly held by Teresa Heinz and John Kerry that John Kerry could borrow against legally to pour $6 million into his campaign.
(CROSSTALK)
O'BRIEN: .. that could give you MVP status if you're following money in this case, right?
Why Edwards' wife? What is it about her...
SHAPIRO: Why Edwards' wife? Because John -- Elizabeth Edwards, in addition to being a dedicated campaigner and somebody who is deeply involved in a lot of the decisions of the campaign is just one of these people in the campaign year that everyone likes. Friends, foes, supporters.
A state senator in New Hampshire by the name of Lou D'Alasandro (ph) who endorsed Edwards told me when I was writing my book, "One Car Caravan," that if Elizabeth Edwards was on the ticket, he would have endorsed a lot earlier. This is the effect she has on people.
O'BRIEN: Walter Shapiro, and we did not mention the book, you just snuck it in there. We'll mention it again, "One Car Caravan." There it is. Got the cover on there for you.
SHAPIRO: Wonderful. It looks beautiful.
O'BRIEN: We're always happy to oblige you, sir. Thank you for dropping by. We hope you enjoy whatever unfolds this evening. Thank you very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Iowa>
