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Can the U.S. Find Bin Laden in a Year?

Aired January 30, 2004 - 14:14   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: So the big question remains where is Osama bin Laden? the elusive al Qaeda leader is believed to be holed up somewhere a long the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. And of course there's a bit of a road block there since American troops are not allow to pursue bin Laden into Pakistan, at least officially.
Still, military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Hilferty is optimistic.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. COL. BRYAN HILFERTY, COALITIONS SPOKESMAN: I can say Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) represent a threat to the world and we believe we will catch them within the next year.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: How can he be so confident? Joining us, CNN national security Ken Robinson. Ken, good to have you back with us.

KEN ROBINSON, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Hi, Miles.

O'BRIEN: That statement could come back to haunt one. Why would the military issue that?

ROBINSON: Well, the military has learned a lot in the last year. If you saw the report of Barbara Starr recently on the cultural awareness training -- they've been doing the same type of thing in Afghanistan concurrently.

And they've been reaching out to warlords, reaching out to warlords on both sides of the border in that lawless area. That Waziristan (ph) area between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

And just like the successes the CIA had with the Northern Alliance, which enabled them to rout the Taliban in Afghanistan, they are anticipating the same kind of success for this year.

They know these passes are going to melt. They know that historically these guys come out of their caves ready to fight after the winter. And their plan is to keep them on their heels and to take the fight to the enemy and to keep them on the move.

O'BRIEN: Ken, what's the tactical or strategic advantage to make a statement like that? We'll have them by whenever? What's the point? ROBINSON: The people that I've talked to in the coalition, war fighters have told me in the last 24 hours that they try to make all their operations tied to events, their planning, and their events, being driven by the movement of the enemy and capability of the enemy. They don't tie it to a calendar.

I can't speak to the decision that was made to express a time line for this on the part of the coalition spokesman in Afghanistan. There's possibilities. One of those possibilities might be they want these guys to start talk to each other. They want these guys to be in communication, possibly to move around so their intelligence and surveillance assets can get some actionable intelligence that can enable them to move now.

The U.S. military doesn't need to wait for spring for the snow to fall. They're ready to fight today and are capable of doing so.

O'BRIEN: So in essence it could be they're banging on the hornets nest a little to see what happens?

ROBINSON: Possibly.

O'BRIEN: What are the chances now of actually making good on that promise or threat, whichever way you want to look at it, to get Osama bin Laden in that time frame? Are your sources telling you that the military is really on his trail?

ROBINSON: They are seriously on his trail. They are very intent on taking out the symbolic issue of Osama bin Laden's presence.

Remember, there are two wars going on in Afghanistan now. There's a green war with conventional forces trying to prop up the current government and help the Afghan national army get on its feet. Then there's a war that is being run really in the dark shadows, trying to deal with the issue of what's going on across the border in Pakistan.

And because of the recent two assassination attempts against President Musharraf, I believe there's a sense of urgency on the part of everyone, that they need to move a lot faster. They no longer need to worry about destabilizing him by any unilateral action they might do temporarily into that border region.

O'BRIEN: It seems there's some parallels to Saddam Hussein in the sense when Saddam Hussein was finally discovered in his hole, he probably wasn't coordinating much. Most of his effort just in self- preservation.

Do you suppose that's the case with Osama bin Laden? And if that's the case why worry about him that much? He's not orchestrating anything.

ROBINSON: I think the issue is the fact that he's a symbolic issue for a lot of jihadist fighters. If you saw the success that occurred in Iraq, and there has been great success in the last month or so after Saddam's capture, where -- where people who live in these different regions have been coming up to the coalition and providing them actionable intelligence.

They hope the same type of thing will occur once they take Osama bin Laden off the man and take Zarqawi off the map and focus on fighters who are actually the most dangerous, to include Zarqawi, who is running operations now against the coalition in Iraq.

O'BRIEN: One of the key aspects that made it easier to get Saddam Hussein is the U.S. controlled the turf in which he was running. That is not the case in this kind of gray area of Pakistan that is pretty much lawless. And the U.S. can't really officially move in there without upsetting President Musharraf's regime and Pakistan. It's a very ticklish situation.

How will it play out on the ground? Will there be a lot of wink/nod operations on the ground?

ROBINSON: I think what we may see will be something similar to what we saw with the CIA's brilliant operations with the Northern Alliance alliance where a lot of money are a lot of liaison relationships with people on the ground, with special operations forces having relationships with people on the ground, will garner intelligence to enable them to move with certainty on to targets.

O'BRIEN: Ken Robinson, national security analyst, thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 30, 2004 - 14:14   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: So the big question remains where is Osama bin Laden? the elusive al Qaeda leader is believed to be holed up somewhere a long the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. And of course there's a bit of a road block there since American troops are not allow to pursue bin Laden into Pakistan, at least officially.
Still, military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Hilferty is optimistic.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. COL. BRYAN HILFERTY, COALITIONS SPOKESMAN: I can say Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) represent a threat to the world and we believe we will catch them within the next year.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: How can he be so confident? Joining us, CNN national security Ken Robinson. Ken, good to have you back with us.

KEN ROBINSON, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Hi, Miles.

O'BRIEN: That statement could come back to haunt one. Why would the military issue that?

ROBINSON: Well, the military has learned a lot in the last year. If you saw the report of Barbara Starr recently on the cultural awareness training -- they've been doing the same type of thing in Afghanistan concurrently.

And they've been reaching out to warlords, reaching out to warlords on both sides of the border in that lawless area. That Waziristan (ph) area between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

And just like the successes the CIA had with the Northern Alliance, which enabled them to rout the Taliban in Afghanistan, they are anticipating the same kind of success for this year.

They know these passes are going to melt. They know that historically these guys come out of their caves ready to fight after the winter. And their plan is to keep them on their heels and to take the fight to the enemy and to keep them on the move.

O'BRIEN: Ken, what's the tactical or strategic advantage to make a statement like that? We'll have them by whenever? What's the point? ROBINSON: The people that I've talked to in the coalition, war fighters have told me in the last 24 hours that they try to make all their operations tied to events, their planning, and their events, being driven by the movement of the enemy and capability of the enemy. They don't tie it to a calendar.

I can't speak to the decision that was made to express a time line for this on the part of the coalition spokesman in Afghanistan. There's possibilities. One of those possibilities might be they want these guys to start talk to each other. They want these guys to be in communication, possibly to move around so their intelligence and surveillance assets can get some actionable intelligence that can enable them to move now.

The U.S. military doesn't need to wait for spring for the snow to fall. They're ready to fight today and are capable of doing so.

O'BRIEN: So in essence it could be they're banging on the hornets nest a little to see what happens?

ROBINSON: Possibly.

O'BRIEN: What are the chances now of actually making good on that promise or threat, whichever way you want to look at it, to get Osama bin Laden in that time frame? Are your sources telling you that the military is really on his trail?

ROBINSON: They are seriously on his trail. They are very intent on taking out the symbolic issue of Osama bin Laden's presence.

Remember, there are two wars going on in Afghanistan now. There's a green war with conventional forces trying to prop up the current government and help the Afghan national army get on its feet. Then there's a war that is being run really in the dark shadows, trying to deal with the issue of what's going on across the border in Pakistan.

And because of the recent two assassination attempts against President Musharraf, I believe there's a sense of urgency on the part of everyone, that they need to move a lot faster. They no longer need to worry about destabilizing him by any unilateral action they might do temporarily into that border region.

O'BRIEN: It seems there's some parallels to Saddam Hussein in the sense when Saddam Hussein was finally discovered in his hole, he probably wasn't coordinating much. Most of his effort just in self- preservation.

Do you suppose that's the case with Osama bin Laden? And if that's the case why worry about him that much? He's not orchestrating anything.

ROBINSON: I think the issue is the fact that he's a symbolic issue for a lot of jihadist fighters. If you saw the success that occurred in Iraq, and there has been great success in the last month or so after Saddam's capture, where -- where people who live in these different regions have been coming up to the coalition and providing them actionable intelligence.

They hope the same type of thing will occur once they take Osama bin Laden off the man and take Zarqawi off the map and focus on fighters who are actually the most dangerous, to include Zarqawi, who is running operations now against the coalition in Iraq.

O'BRIEN: One of the key aspects that made it easier to get Saddam Hussein is the U.S. controlled the turf in which he was running. That is not the case in this kind of gray area of Pakistan that is pretty much lawless. And the U.S. can't really officially move in there without upsetting President Musharraf's regime and Pakistan. It's a very ticklish situation.

How will it play out on the ground? Will there be a lot of wink/nod operations on the ground?

ROBINSON: I think what we may see will be something similar to what we saw with the CIA's brilliant operations with the Northern Alliance alliance where a lot of money are a lot of liaison relationships with people on the ground, with special operations forces having relationships with people on the ground, will garner intelligence to enable them to move with certainty on to targets.

O'BRIEN: Ken Robinson, national security analyst, thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com