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Hurricane Frances Update; President Bush Addresses Convention Tonight; Russian School Standoff
Aired September 02, 2004 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: We begin this hour with ferocious Frances, Category 4, big as Texas, destination Bahamas, then Florida. More than a million Floridians are being ordered to flee the Atlantic Coast. And those who aren't are stocking up, digging in, and hunkering down ahead of the second major hurricane to threaten the U.S. in less than a month.
Remember Charley? If Frances does slam Florida at current strength, it will be a historic one-two punch of Category 4 hurricanes.
CNN's John Zarrella is watching and waiting. He's on the phone in Miami -- John.
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kyra, I have to tell you, I have not seen the level of anxiety in south Florida as high as it is today since 1992, when we all remember what that was, Hurricane Andrew, which was, of course, a small powerful, very powerful storm. You could overlay this hurricane on the top of Andrew and it would completely engulf that storm. So that tells you a little bit something about the size of Frances.
Now, the gas lines are incredibly long. Everyone topping off their tanks. Some stations, the wait is 15, 20 minutes. Other stations, it's longer.
Many of the gas stations are running out of fuel already. It's become a precious commodity here in south Florida.
The home improvement stores are absolutely packed, as you can see in those pictures there. The lines are long.
At one Home Depot this morning, in western Broward County, the people began lining up at 3:00 this morning for plywood because the store had already run out the night before. And the supply had not come in yet. The line was dozens and dozens deep for plywood.
To some degree, Kyra, it really mystifies me that here at the 11th hour, even in south Florida, with all that we have gone through over the years here with hurricanes, that people still wait till this 11th hour to stock up on the plywood and try to board up. This is really -- the catchphrase now down here is "Rush preparations to final completion," because Frances is certainly bearing down on us -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: John, you know, every time a storm like this, a hurricane comes through, we always hear about the mobile homes. We always hear about the elderly. Anything going on precautionary-wise to take care of those that have a harder time packing up and getting out?
ZARRELLA: Well, certainly the evacuation orders have already been issued all up and down the Florida east coast for people, A, in low lying areas, and for people who live in mobile homes. And, of course, the elderly are urged.
And there are buses, there's transportation that is provided, to get them off of Miami Beach, for example, to get people off of some of these -- these other elder communities, to get them inland, to get them to safe shelter. But again, the issue, as was the case in Charley, and is always the case, you can't physically force someone to leave their home.
And that's always a difficult problem with the elderly. Many of them do not want to leave their homes. That happened in Charley.
And, you know, more than a week after the hurricane we ran into an elderly gentlemen who we had profiled in the first day or two of the storm. He was still sleeping in his car outside his destroyed mobile home to protect what was left of it.
So these are the kinds of situations you face. And this is a very, very serious situation. We can't -- you can't overestimate the seriousness of this storm -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: John Zarrella. You are looking at live pictures from the Florida Department of Transportation, seeing all the people heading out of Florida to prepare for this hurricane. John Zarrella, thanks so much -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get the very big picture on the hurricane from CNN meteorologist Orelon Sidney, who is working some big overtime hours, of course, up in the weather center.
What's the latest -- Orelon.
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, the very latest is that the storm continues to be very strong. It's now working its way to the northwest, heading through the Bahamas and going, of course, as we said, towards Florida.
I want you to take a look at the big picture. I'm going to use the telestrator here to demonstrate to you some of the features of the storm.
It looks like the storm's eye right now is about to approach San Salvador. And that is this island right here. It looks like it's probably going to make a direct path over that island. And we're continuing to watch the center of the storm.
The track has been something like this. So it does seem as if it is going to affect much of these islands here. Of course, that's why we have the hurricane warning that's in effect for those areas. And then, of course, the hurricane warning extends along the east coast of Florida, like so. And we go on a little bit further south, of course, and there is your hurricane watch that extends down through the Keys.
So, just a really, really dangerous situation. We're going to have to continue to watch over the next 36 hours or so.
These are the very latest coordinates. Still, winds of 145. And they have been holding since early this morning, moving west-northwest at 13.
This is an interesting fact. The pressure now is up to 949 millibars, which may be an indication that the wind speed may drop a bit. But remember, this eye wall replacement cycle that we've been talking about, this -- if there is a decrease in wind speed, it will more than likely be temporary. And then the storm, we certainly expect it to re-strengthen. At the current time, we haven't seen the winds die at all.
Quickly, to inform you of your warnings, hurricane warning in effect for the Bahama Islands. Everything except the Turks and Caicos is included in this hurricane warning.
Now we head to the coast. From Florida City, northward through Lake Okeechobee, to Flagler Beach, hurricane warnings are in effect. That means you can expect hurricane conditions within 24 hours.
From Seven Mile Bridge up to Florida City, you've got a hurricane watch in effect. Hurricane conditions are possible in those areas over the next 36 hours.
I wanted to show you now -- talking about the pressure, I have seen the pressure in this storm as low as 939 millibars. I think yesterday even they had it at 937.
Right now, it's at 949. But take a look at some of the most intense storms. We're looking at Hurricane Camille back from 1969 as it went through Louisiana. Look at its pressure at landfall, 909 millibars. Andrew, of course, from 1992, its pressure at that time 922 millibars.
Meteorologist use the pressure in millibars to determine the actual strength of the storm. And at 949, it's under the top five, but it does have a little bit stronger strength now than Hurricane Hugo, which was 940 millibars when it went inland in South Carolina.
This, of course, is showing a little bit different satellite picture. Remember I told you the right side of the storm is always the most intense? That's where we have all of the big squalls and thunderstorms heading in your direction -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Orelon Sidney, stay right there.
We're going to bring in Ed Rappaport, who is with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Center down in Miami. Ed, good to have you join us here. One thing that's worth pointing out here are the predictions on the storm surge. That's a key point.
We've been talking a lot about the wind speeds damaging their own way. But, of course, the surge is a big problem, as well.
ED RAPPAPORT, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: That's right. Historically, the greatest loss of life is due to the storm surge. And we made great progress over the years in making forecasts for storm surge and working with emergency managers and local communities.
We now have evacuation plans that take that into account. We are forecasting a storm surge of as much as six to 11 feet along the Florida east coast, nearer to the north of where the center makes landfall.
O'BRIEN: Orelon Sydney, do you have a question for Ed?
SIDNEY: Well, one of the things that I wanted to ask him is what he thinks the long-term track may be after the storm moves through Florida, if you guys have actually gotten that far.
RAPPAPORT: Yes, we do have a longer-term track. And we're seeing this west-northwest to northwest motion that we've had for the last 24 hours. And we think that's going to continue as it makes landfall somewhere along the Florida east coast.
Fortunately, there will be some weakening as it moves over land. And we think, though, that eventually there will be a turn to the north. We had talked about that earlier, and the hopes were that it would occur before it even got to the coast. But it looks like after it makes landfall we'll see more of a northward component in the three to four-day time frame. But our focus, of course, right now is landfall in Florida.
O'BRIEN: Ed, give us a sense then how far inland folks should be concerned. I remember very distinctly with Charley there was a tremendous amount of concern in the internal portions of Florida. And that's the first time I can recall a huge concern there. Do you have similar concerns in this case?
RAPPAPORT: We do. The reason that Charley had such a great impact inland because it arrived at the coast at Category 4 intensity. That's what we have for Frances.
Again, the difference here is that Frances is larger, and it will take longer for its circulation to spin down. So we could see hurricane-force winds extend inland up to 100, maybe even 150 miles as Frances goes ashore.
O'BRIEN: Ed Rappaport, thank you very much. I want to button it up with Orelon Sidney.
Orelon, as that storm comes across land, it quickly begins to dissipate because it feeds off the warm waters of the ocean. How much trouble could it cause and how far north could that be?
SIDNEY: Well, you know what? It's going to cause a lot of problems, even after it becomes a tropical depression.
Remember, it's going to rain across much of the Southeast. And depending on its track, perhaps up into the Gulf or even perhaps up into the mid Atlantic. We don't know just yet.
But even after it diminishes below Category 1 hurricane strength, you've still got all the rain. Remember also that as these storms move inland, you have the risk of tornadoes. That always happens, especially to the right of the path of the storm.
In this case, if the storm happens to go in, in Florida, and kind of make a little glancing blow, then most of the action might be out to sea. But we still have that risk of tornadoes across the Florida peninsula as the storm works its way across -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Orelon Sidney, preceded by Ed Rappaport. Thank you both. Appreciate it -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: The commander in chief prepares to take charge of the party faithful. President Bush will accept his party's nomination tonight at the RNC, but what will he need to say to get acceptance from undecided swing voters?
CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now live from New York.
Hi, Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, Karl Rove saying it's time to get personal here, the president has to refresh people's memory. What kind of refreshing does he need to do?
SCHNEIDER: He has to refresh people's memory of not just 9/11, which this whole convention has done, but also the period, the one year after 9/11, when Bush was a unifying figure. It sounds amazing in this divided election. But for one solid year, from September 2001 to September 2002, the whole country was behind President Bush.
Even a majority of Democrats that whole year supported him, and the whole world was behind us in Afghanistan. He's got to remind us of that President Bush. Forget what happened after the war in Iraq started.
PHILLIPS: If we think back a few years, compassionate conservative, compassionate conservative. Is this what we're going to hear?
SCHNEIDER: Well, you are going to hear one of the messages -- I think the second night of the convention was about compassion. But frankly, we didn't hear a lot about domestic programs and people in need. We heard one thing, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, threat, war, danger, security.
That's been the relentless message of this whole convention. And, in fact, the imagery -- there's been more security at this convention than any other convention I can remember.
Maybe the president will need to shift gear as little bit, because people want to hear, wait a minute, what are you going to do in the next four years? What about jobs? What about health care? What about all those issues that are really bothering a lot of Americans?
PHILLIPS: And if you sort of look back at all the speeches, Zell Miller, Dick Cheney, Rudy Giuliani, they all took stabs at John Kerry. Do you think the president is going to get -- I don't want to say -- I mean, when you think of Zell Miller, you think of very fierce -- do you think the president is going to be a little more relaxed, like a Dick Cheney, maybe, or do you think he's going to get tough and rip John Kerry? I guess I'll just get right to it?
(LAUGHTER)
SCHNEIDER: He will not rip John Kerry.
PHILLIPS: OK.
SCHNEIDER: It's funny you mention, he'll be more relaxed like Dick Cheney? Dick Cheney is not supposed to be a relaxed figure. But next to Zell Miller, Dick Cheney was warm and fuzzy.
Well, the president, of course, is going to take a few jabs at John Kerry. I'm sure he'll talk about the -- you know, the two Americas, the two John Kerrys, something like that. But he won't be ferocious. You won't hear Zell Miller-like attacks coming from the president.
He's supposed to be above it all. That's the job of the vice president. And, of course, it was even better done by Zell Miller last night.
PHILLIPS: And, of course, there is going to be in the theater in the round format. I wonder if he'll recite any Shakespeare. You think?
SCHNEIDER: I don't think so. But this thing, I've been looking at it all week. And the delegates have been looking at it and saying, "It looks like a trampoline. You think the president is going to jump and turn somersaults?" Well, you know, maybe.
PHILLIPS: He'll have a hard time reading that teleprompter. Bill Schneider, thank you.
SCHNEIDER: Sure, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right.
Well, CNN, of course, has your complete coverage of the final day of the RNC. Live coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, with a special edition of "ANDERSON COOPER 360," and "America Votes 2004" special hosted by Wolf Blitzer. That follows at 8:00 Eastern.
Then "LARRY KING LIVE" has convention coverage from Madison Square Garden at 9:00 Eastern. CNN will bring you the president's acceptance speech from the convention live starting at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. A special edition of "NEWSNIGHT" with Aaron Brown follows at 11:00 Eastern, and "LARRY KING LIVE" wraps up CNN's convention coverage when the clock strikes midnight.
Did you get all that?
O'BRIEN: I guess the simple thing is to just say, put it on CNN and leave it on CNN.
PHILLIPS: And leave it there.
O'BRIEN: It will be a good place to be, unless you are listening to the radio.
How do you negotiate with a terrorist? That's the question for officials trying to free hundreds of hostages at a Russian school. It's a horrifying story, and we're live on the scene.
And criminal charges dropped against Kobe Bryant, but certainly not out of the legal woods just yet.
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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I never really thought of myself to be that important or anything.
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O'BRIEN: In this political season, this little girl is making a big name for herself. We'll explain.
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PHILLIPS: Instead of school bells, gunshots are ringing outside a Russian school. Inside, armed hostage-takers holding hundreds of children and parents in the second day of a standoff. Some captives have been released at this school in Beslan.
CNN's Ryan Chilcote is live from there with the latest.
What can you tell us, Ryan?
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, we're now in the 38th hour of this hostage-taking crisis. And Russian officials are telling us that they believe that the number of hostages inside the school is greater than they had initially believed.
They initially said that they thought there were 354 hostages inside the school. They now say that number is inaccurate. They think there are more than that, but they are not sure exactly how many.
Now, their biggest concern are the students. They make up a very large portion of the hostages, of course. They are just kids between the age of seven and 17. And the biggest issue right now is the issue of food for those children.
The only food they had on this -- in this school for the first day -- it was supposed to be a short day -- was the food they'd reserved for a small party to kick off the school year. Of course, that's when the school, as you said, was seized.
So some women earlier in the day, a group of 26 women and children, were released. And they say -- they are giving some information about what is going on inside. They are saying that the women inside the school are actually rationing off that food to the children, trying to stretch it for as long as they can.
Meanwhile, Russian officials are asking the hostage-takers to allow food and water to be brought into the school. They are very concerned about the ability of these children to keep going after so many hours without food and water -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, Ryan. Thanks so much. We'll continue to check in with you, of course, on this.
Now, it's a tense and frenetic moment, of course, during a standoff. Hostage negotiators have to remain calm and collected. Those Russian negotiators have actually had FBI training to deal with these type of situations.
We're going to have some insight with CNN's Mike Brooks. He's former FBI counterterrorism and former law enforcement. He's an analyst for our network.
Let's talk about the negotiations and how they are continuing. Ryan talking about we're 38 hours in. We are seeing some women and children being released. But I thought you don't negotiate with terrorists, let alone suicide bombers. They've got explosives strapped to them.
MIKE BROOKS, CNN ANALYST: You have to negotiate no matter what. If someone flew a plane here to the United States, hijacked a plane, flew them here, landed at the Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta and said, "We're a terrorist group," FBI would negotiate.
They would surround, they would get their trained negotiators out and they'd start to try to develop a dialogue. And that's exactly what they are trying to do here.
But there's been so much bad blood, Kyra, over the years between the Chechen rebels and the Russian authorities, you may have to bring in some uninterested intermediaries. And that sounds like what they're doing.
They have brought in now a local leader. And apparently he has helped gain the release of the 26 hostages within the last couple of hours.
There's also a doctor who was an intermediary, if you will, in helping negotiations back in October of 2002, when Chechen rebels took over a Moscow theater and had over 700 hostages. And -- but that ended not so well, they pumped in poison gas, 140-some hostages were killed, 41 of the hostage-takers were also killed. And it's going to be hard now to develop trust, especially after that.
If the Chechens are making some demands, and the Russian authorities now say, well, OK, we're going to acquiesce to some of these demands, it's going to be hard for the Chechens to actually say, OK, well, we're going to trust you to make sure that these demands are carried out. But time is a very valuable asset.
And it's gone on now 38 hours, as Ryan Chilcote was saying. And that is a good sign that things are going pretty well.
PHILLIPS: At what point, though, do you decide to resort to a tactical solution? I mean, here in the United States, you know, you think of like a S.W.A.T. scenario, and they -- they do the negotiations, they have the whole process. And then once they've reached that last option they make entry.
So are they sort of operating the same way? Or is it different, considering that they are dealing with terrorists?
BROOKS: Well, you have three main groups of hostage-takers. I call them the three Cs: criminal, crusaders and crazies, if you will, and also prison takeovers. But this, the crusaders, whether they are religious or political, you have a little bit of both here.
Here in the United States, a lot of things changed after Waco. Now, some people felt that the Department of Justice kind of hurried it along a little bit, didn't take enough time to negotiate. After that, we'll see negotiations go on for days.
That's what we're seeing here in Russia. The longer it goes on, the better it is. But again, it is hard to manage that many people.
You've got 16 to 20 hostage-takers. You've got over almost, as Ryan Chilcote was saying, almost 400 hostages. It gets very, very difficult. You are going to have dehydration setting in, especially with the younger children, with no food, no water. And these are things that are negotiable in the early stages.
PHILLIPS: But you're not going to see a gassing, like authorities took with the theater. I mean, Vladimir Putin was called on the table for that. That was very -- that was odd, wasn't it? That wasn't a normal procedure.
BROOKS: Very, very odd. And as I said, it's going -- it would be hard to build trust after something like that happened.
But as time goes along, you can negotiate for small things. And we have seen some of the...
PHILLIPS: It's working. Some of them are leaving.
BROOKS: Exactly.
PHILLIPS: I mean, some of the women and children are being -- we're looking at video now from that theater situation. But finally we are seeing women and children.
BROOKS: Any time you see hostages come out, that's a great sign.
PHILLIPS: Good sign.
BROOKS: That's a very, very good sign that things are going along. Now, you know, they could -- they could take a turn. But right now you -- at the end of the day, you don't want to have a tactical resolution. You want to try and develop a good dialogue. And it sounds like that's what they are doing now, using outside intermediaries.
PHILLIPS: Mike Brooks, thanks so much -- Miles.
BROOKS: Thank you, Kyra.
O'BRIEN: The Turkish government is looking into reports a militant group has killed three Turkish hostages in Iraq. The bodies of the Turkish truck drivers reportedly found dumped on the side of the road near the rebel stronghold of Samarra, north of Baghdad.
The Arab television network Al Jazeera says it received a video showing the executions, but did not air the footage. The French foreign ministry has been told two French journalists being held hostage in Iraq are alive and well.
Today, three Muslim clerics from France met with a group of Iraq religious leaders in Baghdad. A guerrilla group is threatening to kill the journalists unless the French government reverses its ban on Islamic head scarves in public schools.
More than a million people told to get out of the way of Hurricane Frances. Later on LIVE FROM, the inexact science of predicting exactly where a hurricane might make landfall.
FRED KATAYAMA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Fred Katayama at the New York Stock Exchange. Get your cappuccino fix while you still may afford it. Prices may be going even higher soon. I'll explain when LIVE FROM continues.
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Aired September 2, 2004 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: We begin this hour with ferocious Frances, Category 4, big as Texas, destination Bahamas, then Florida. More than a million Floridians are being ordered to flee the Atlantic Coast. And those who aren't are stocking up, digging in, and hunkering down ahead of the second major hurricane to threaten the U.S. in less than a month.
Remember Charley? If Frances does slam Florida at current strength, it will be a historic one-two punch of Category 4 hurricanes.
CNN's John Zarrella is watching and waiting. He's on the phone in Miami -- John.
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kyra, I have to tell you, I have not seen the level of anxiety in south Florida as high as it is today since 1992, when we all remember what that was, Hurricane Andrew, which was, of course, a small powerful, very powerful storm. You could overlay this hurricane on the top of Andrew and it would completely engulf that storm. So that tells you a little bit something about the size of Frances.
Now, the gas lines are incredibly long. Everyone topping off their tanks. Some stations, the wait is 15, 20 minutes. Other stations, it's longer.
Many of the gas stations are running out of fuel already. It's become a precious commodity here in south Florida.
The home improvement stores are absolutely packed, as you can see in those pictures there. The lines are long.
At one Home Depot this morning, in western Broward County, the people began lining up at 3:00 this morning for plywood because the store had already run out the night before. And the supply had not come in yet. The line was dozens and dozens deep for plywood.
To some degree, Kyra, it really mystifies me that here at the 11th hour, even in south Florida, with all that we have gone through over the years here with hurricanes, that people still wait till this 11th hour to stock up on the plywood and try to board up. This is really -- the catchphrase now down here is "Rush preparations to final completion," because Frances is certainly bearing down on us -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: John, you know, every time a storm like this, a hurricane comes through, we always hear about the mobile homes. We always hear about the elderly. Anything going on precautionary-wise to take care of those that have a harder time packing up and getting out?
ZARRELLA: Well, certainly the evacuation orders have already been issued all up and down the Florida east coast for people, A, in low lying areas, and for people who live in mobile homes. And, of course, the elderly are urged.
And there are buses, there's transportation that is provided, to get them off of Miami Beach, for example, to get people off of some of these -- these other elder communities, to get them inland, to get them to safe shelter. But again, the issue, as was the case in Charley, and is always the case, you can't physically force someone to leave their home.
And that's always a difficult problem with the elderly. Many of them do not want to leave their homes. That happened in Charley.
And, you know, more than a week after the hurricane we ran into an elderly gentlemen who we had profiled in the first day or two of the storm. He was still sleeping in his car outside his destroyed mobile home to protect what was left of it.
So these are the kinds of situations you face. And this is a very, very serious situation. We can't -- you can't overestimate the seriousness of this storm -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: John Zarrella. You are looking at live pictures from the Florida Department of Transportation, seeing all the people heading out of Florida to prepare for this hurricane. John Zarrella, thanks so much -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get the very big picture on the hurricane from CNN meteorologist Orelon Sidney, who is working some big overtime hours, of course, up in the weather center.
What's the latest -- Orelon.
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, the very latest is that the storm continues to be very strong. It's now working its way to the northwest, heading through the Bahamas and going, of course, as we said, towards Florida.
I want you to take a look at the big picture. I'm going to use the telestrator here to demonstrate to you some of the features of the storm.
It looks like the storm's eye right now is about to approach San Salvador. And that is this island right here. It looks like it's probably going to make a direct path over that island. And we're continuing to watch the center of the storm.
The track has been something like this. So it does seem as if it is going to affect much of these islands here. Of course, that's why we have the hurricane warning that's in effect for those areas. And then, of course, the hurricane warning extends along the east coast of Florida, like so. And we go on a little bit further south, of course, and there is your hurricane watch that extends down through the Keys.
So, just a really, really dangerous situation. We're going to have to continue to watch over the next 36 hours or so.
These are the very latest coordinates. Still, winds of 145. And they have been holding since early this morning, moving west-northwest at 13.
This is an interesting fact. The pressure now is up to 949 millibars, which may be an indication that the wind speed may drop a bit. But remember, this eye wall replacement cycle that we've been talking about, this -- if there is a decrease in wind speed, it will more than likely be temporary. And then the storm, we certainly expect it to re-strengthen. At the current time, we haven't seen the winds die at all.
Quickly, to inform you of your warnings, hurricane warning in effect for the Bahama Islands. Everything except the Turks and Caicos is included in this hurricane warning.
Now we head to the coast. From Florida City, northward through Lake Okeechobee, to Flagler Beach, hurricane warnings are in effect. That means you can expect hurricane conditions within 24 hours.
From Seven Mile Bridge up to Florida City, you've got a hurricane watch in effect. Hurricane conditions are possible in those areas over the next 36 hours.
I wanted to show you now -- talking about the pressure, I have seen the pressure in this storm as low as 939 millibars. I think yesterday even they had it at 937.
Right now, it's at 949. But take a look at some of the most intense storms. We're looking at Hurricane Camille back from 1969 as it went through Louisiana. Look at its pressure at landfall, 909 millibars. Andrew, of course, from 1992, its pressure at that time 922 millibars.
Meteorologist use the pressure in millibars to determine the actual strength of the storm. And at 949, it's under the top five, but it does have a little bit stronger strength now than Hurricane Hugo, which was 940 millibars when it went inland in South Carolina.
This, of course, is showing a little bit different satellite picture. Remember I told you the right side of the storm is always the most intense? That's where we have all of the big squalls and thunderstorms heading in your direction -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Orelon Sidney, stay right there.
We're going to bring in Ed Rappaport, who is with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Center down in Miami. Ed, good to have you join us here. One thing that's worth pointing out here are the predictions on the storm surge. That's a key point.
We've been talking a lot about the wind speeds damaging their own way. But, of course, the surge is a big problem, as well.
ED RAPPAPORT, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: That's right. Historically, the greatest loss of life is due to the storm surge. And we made great progress over the years in making forecasts for storm surge and working with emergency managers and local communities.
We now have evacuation plans that take that into account. We are forecasting a storm surge of as much as six to 11 feet along the Florida east coast, nearer to the north of where the center makes landfall.
O'BRIEN: Orelon Sydney, do you have a question for Ed?
SIDNEY: Well, one of the things that I wanted to ask him is what he thinks the long-term track may be after the storm moves through Florida, if you guys have actually gotten that far.
RAPPAPORT: Yes, we do have a longer-term track. And we're seeing this west-northwest to northwest motion that we've had for the last 24 hours. And we think that's going to continue as it makes landfall somewhere along the Florida east coast.
Fortunately, there will be some weakening as it moves over land. And we think, though, that eventually there will be a turn to the north. We had talked about that earlier, and the hopes were that it would occur before it even got to the coast. But it looks like after it makes landfall we'll see more of a northward component in the three to four-day time frame. But our focus, of course, right now is landfall in Florida.
O'BRIEN: Ed, give us a sense then how far inland folks should be concerned. I remember very distinctly with Charley there was a tremendous amount of concern in the internal portions of Florida. And that's the first time I can recall a huge concern there. Do you have similar concerns in this case?
RAPPAPORT: We do. The reason that Charley had such a great impact inland because it arrived at the coast at Category 4 intensity. That's what we have for Frances.
Again, the difference here is that Frances is larger, and it will take longer for its circulation to spin down. So we could see hurricane-force winds extend inland up to 100, maybe even 150 miles as Frances goes ashore.
O'BRIEN: Ed Rappaport, thank you very much. I want to button it up with Orelon Sidney.
Orelon, as that storm comes across land, it quickly begins to dissipate because it feeds off the warm waters of the ocean. How much trouble could it cause and how far north could that be?
SIDNEY: Well, you know what? It's going to cause a lot of problems, even after it becomes a tropical depression.
Remember, it's going to rain across much of the Southeast. And depending on its track, perhaps up into the Gulf or even perhaps up into the mid Atlantic. We don't know just yet.
But even after it diminishes below Category 1 hurricane strength, you've still got all the rain. Remember also that as these storms move inland, you have the risk of tornadoes. That always happens, especially to the right of the path of the storm.
In this case, if the storm happens to go in, in Florida, and kind of make a little glancing blow, then most of the action might be out to sea. But we still have that risk of tornadoes across the Florida peninsula as the storm works its way across -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Orelon Sidney, preceded by Ed Rappaport. Thank you both. Appreciate it -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: The commander in chief prepares to take charge of the party faithful. President Bush will accept his party's nomination tonight at the RNC, but what will he need to say to get acceptance from undecided swing voters?
CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now live from New York.
Hi, Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, Karl Rove saying it's time to get personal here, the president has to refresh people's memory. What kind of refreshing does he need to do?
SCHNEIDER: He has to refresh people's memory of not just 9/11, which this whole convention has done, but also the period, the one year after 9/11, when Bush was a unifying figure. It sounds amazing in this divided election. But for one solid year, from September 2001 to September 2002, the whole country was behind President Bush.
Even a majority of Democrats that whole year supported him, and the whole world was behind us in Afghanistan. He's got to remind us of that President Bush. Forget what happened after the war in Iraq started.
PHILLIPS: If we think back a few years, compassionate conservative, compassionate conservative. Is this what we're going to hear?
SCHNEIDER: Well, you are going to hear one of the messages -- I think the second night of the convention was about compassion. But frankly, we didn't hear a lot about domestic programs and people in need. We heard one thing, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, threat, war, danger, security.
That's been the relentless message of this whole convention. And, in fact, the imagery -- there's been more security at this convention than any other convention I can remember.
Maybe the president will need to shift gear as little bit, because people want to hear, wait a minute, what are you going to do in the next four years? What about jobs? What about health care? What about all those issues that are really bothering a lot of Americans?
PHILLIPS: And if you sort of look back at all the speeches, Zell Miller, Dick Cheney, Rudy Giuliani, they all took stabs at John Kerry. Do you think the president is going to get -- I don't want to say -- I mean, when you think of Zell Miller, you think of very fierce -- do you think the president is going to be a little more relaxed, like a Dick Cheney, maybe, or do you think he's going to get tough and rip John Kerry? I guess I'll just get right to it?
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SCHNEIDER: He will not rip John Kerry.
PHILLIPS: OK.
SCHNEIDER: It's funny you mention, he'll be more relaxed like Dick Cheney? Dick Cheney is not supposed to be a relaxed figure. But next to Zell Miller, Dick Cheney was warm and fuzzy.
Well, the president, of course, is going to take a few jabs at John Kerry. I'm sure he'll talk about the -- you know, the two Americas, the two John Kerrys, something like that. But he won't be ferocious. You won't hear Zell Miller-like attacks coming from the president.
He's supposed to be above it all. That's the job of the vice president. And, of course, it was even better done by Zell Miller last night.
PHILLIPS: And, of course, there is going to be in the theater in the round format. I wonder if he'll recite any Shakespeare. You think?
SCHNEIDER: I don't think so. But this thing, I've been looking at it all week. And the delegates have been looking at it and saying, "It looks like a trampoline. You think the president is going to jump and turn somersaults?" Well, you know, maybe.
PHILLIPS: He'll have a hard time reading that teleprompter. Bill Schneider, thank you.
SCHNEIDER: Sure, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right.
Well, CNN, of course, has your complete coverage of the final day of the RNC. Live coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, with a special edition of "ANDERSON COOPER 360," and "America Votes 2004" special hosted by Wolf Blitzer. That follows at 8:00 Eastern.
Then "LARRY KING LIVE" has convention coverage from Madison Square Garden at 9:00 Eastern. CNN will bring you the president's acceptance speech from the convention live starting at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. A special edition of "NEWSNIGHT" with Aaron Brown follows at 11:00 Eastern, and "LARRY KING LIVE" wraps up CNN's convention coverage when the clock strikes midnight.
Did you get all that?
O'BRIEN: I guess the simple thing is to just say, put it on CNN and leave it on CNN.
PHILLIPS: And leave it there.
O'BRIEN: It will be a good place to be, unless you are listening to the radio.
How do you negotiate with a terrorist? That's the question for officials trying to free hundreds of hostages at a Russian school. It's a horrifying story, and we're live on the scene.
And criminal charges dropped against Kobe Bryant, but certainly not out of the legal woods just yet.
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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I never really thought of myself to be that important or anything.
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O'BRIEN: In this political season, this little girl is making a big name for herself. We'll explain.
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PHILLIPS: Instead of school bells, gunshots are ringing outside a Russian school. Inside, armed hostage-takers holding hundreds of children and parents in the second day of a standoff. Some captives have been released at this school in Beslan.
CNN's Ryan Chilcote is live from there with the latest.
What can you tell us, Ryan?
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, we're now in the 38th hour of this hostage-taking crisis. And Russian officials are telling us that they believe that the number of hostages inside the school is greater than they had initially believed.
They initially said that they thought there were 354 hostages inside the school. They now say that number is inaccurate. They think there are more than that, but they are not sure exactly how many.
Now, their biggest concern are the students. They make up a very large portion of the hostages, of course. They are just kids between the age of seven and 17. And the biggest issue right now is the issue of food for those children.
The only food they had on this -- in this school for the first day -- it was supposed to be a short day -- was the food they'd reserved for a small party to kick off the school year. Of course, that's when the school, as you said, was seized.
So some women earlier in the day, a group of 26 women and children, were released. And they say -- they are giving some information about what is going on inside. They are saying that the women inside the school are actually rationing off that food to the children, trying to stretch it for as long as they can.
Meanwhile, Russian officials are asking the hostage-takers to allow food and water to be brought into the school. They are very concerned about the ability of these children to keep going after so many hours without food and water -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, Ryan. Thanks so much. We'll continue to check in with you, of course, on this.
Now, it's a tense and frenetic moment, of course, during a standoff. Hostage negotiators have to remain calm and collected. Those Russian negotiators have actually had FBI training to deal with these type of situations.
We're going to have some insight with CNN's Mike Brooks. He's former FBI counterterrorism and former law enforcement. He's an analyst for our network.
Let's talk about the negotiations and how they are continuing. Ryan talking about we're 38 hours in. We are seeing some women and children being released. But I thought you don't negotiate with terrorists, let alone suicide bombers. They've got explosives strapped to them.
MIKE BROOKS, CNN ANALYST: You have to negotiate no matter what. If someone flew a plane here to the United States, hijacked a plane, flew them here, landed at the Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta and said, "We're a terrorist group," FBI would negotiate.
They would surround, they would get their trained negotiators out and they'd start to try to develop a dialogue. And that's exactly what they are trying to do here.
But there's been so much bad blood, Kyra, over the years between the Chechen rebels and the Russian authorities, you may have to bring in some uninterested intermediaries. And that sounds like what they're doing.
They have brought in now a local leader. And apparently he has helped gain the release of the 26 hostages within the last couple of hours.
There's also a doctor who was an intermediary, if you will, in helping negotiations back in October of 2002, when Chechen rebels took over a Moscow theater and had over 700 hostages. And -- but that ended not so well, they pumped in poison gas, 140-some hostages were killed, 41 of the hostage-takers were also killed. And it's going to be hard now to develop trust, especially after that.
If the Chechens are making some demands, and the Russian authorities now say, well, OK, we're going to acquiesce to some of these demands, it's going to be hard for the Chechens to actually say, OK, well, we're going to trust you to make sure that these demands are carried out. But time is a very valuable asset.
And it's gone on now 38 hours, as Ryan Chilcote was saying. And that is a good sign that things are going pretty well.
PHILLIPS: At what point, though, do you decide to resort to a tactical solution? I mean, here in the United States, you know, you think of like a S.W.A.T. scenario, and they -- they do the negotiations, they have the whole process. And then once they've reached that last option they make entry.
So are they sort of operating the same way? Or is it different, considering that they are dealing with terrorists?
BROOKS: Well, you have three main groups of hostage-takers. I call them the three Cs: criminal, crusaders and crazies, if you will, and also prison takeovers. But this, the crusaders, whether they are religious or political, you have a little bit of both here.
Here in the United States, a lot of things changed after Waco. Now, some people felt that the Department of Justice kind of hurried it along a little bit, didn't take enough time to negotiate. After that, we'll see negotiations go on for days.
That's what we're seeing here in Russia. The longer it goes on, the better it is. But again, it is hard to manage that many people.
You've got 16 to 20 hostage-takers. You've got over almost, as Ryan Chilcote was saying, almost 400 hostages. It gets very, very difficult. You are going to have dehydration setting in, especially with the younger children, with no food, no water. And these are things that are negotiable in the early stages.
PHILLIPS: But you're not going to see a gassing, like authorities took with the theater. I mean, Vladimir Putin was called on the table for that. That was very -- that was odd, wasn't it? That wasn't a normal procedure.
BROOKS: Very, very odd. And as I said, it's going -- it would be hard to build trust after something like that happened.
But as time goes along, you can negotiate for small things. And we have seen some of the...
PHILLIPS: It's working. Some of them are leaving.
BROOKS: Exactly.
PHILLIPS: I mean, some of the women and children are being -- we're looking at video now from that theater situation. But finally we are seeing women and children.
BROOKS: Any time you see hostages come out, that's a great sign.
PHILLIPS: Good sign.
BROOKS: That's a very, very good sign that things are going along. Now, you know, they could -- they could take a turn. But right now you -- at the end of the day, you don't want to have a tactical resolution. You want to try and develop a good dialogue. And it sounds like that's what they are doing now, using outside intermediaries.
PHILLIPS: Mike Brooks, thanks so much -- Miles.
BROOKS: Thank you, Kyra.
O'BRIEN: The Turkish government is looking into reports a militant group has killed three Turkish hostages in Iraq. The bodies of the Turkish truck drivers reportedly found dumped on the side of the road near the rebel stronghold of Samarra, north of Baghdad.
The Arab television network Al Jazeera says it received a video showing the executions, but did not air the footage. The French foreign ministry has been told two French journalists being held hostage in Iraq are alive and well.
Today, three Muslim clerics from France met with a group of Iraq religious leaders in Baghdad. A guerrilla group is threatening to kill the journalists unless the French government reverses its ban on Islamic head scarves in public schools.
More than a million people told to get out of the way of Hurricane Frances. Later on LIVE FROM, the inexact science of predicting exactly where a hurricane might make landfall.
FRED KATAYAMA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Fred Katayama at the New York Stock Exchange. Get your cappuccino fix while you still may afford it. Prices may be going even higher soon. I'll explain when LIVE FROM continues.
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