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Hurricane Frances Eyes Florida; Russian Hostage Situation Update; Bush to Speak at RNC Tonight

Aired September 02, 2004 - 13:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: I want what Don had for lunch.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Poor Wolf.

O'BRIEN: All right...

PHILLIPS: He was eating up Wolf Blitzer is what he was doing.

O'BRIEN: ... we're going to press on here. It won't be as lively as that, at least at the start.

I'm Miles O'Brien, and this is LIVE FROM.

PHILLIPS: And I'm Kyra Phillips, glad you're with us. It's bigger than Charley by far -- bigger even than Andrew in '92, and it's determined, from all indications, to wreak devastation and make history.

It's Hurricane Francis, and unless it makes some unexpected turns, it will be the second Category 4 hurricane to strike the U.S. in a year. That's never happened in the 133 years the National Hurricane Center has been keeping records.

Actually, it's been only three weeks since Hurricane Charley slammed Florida's Gulf coast, with winds clocked at 145 miles an hour. Keeping an eye on Frances' winds, size, and directions, CNN's meteorologist Orelon Sidney.

A little historical fact for you there, but you already knew that, Orelon.

ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, I'll tell you what, that's news to me, because we were looking it up here in the Weather Center, and we hadn't found the answer yet. So, I appreciate it very much. And this is what we have at the current hour.

We're looking at a storm, still extremely strong at Category 4, 145 mile an hour winds, moving to the west-northwest at 13 miles an hour. If you're tracking it, it's 23.4 degrees north, 73.9 west, 450 miles east-southeast of the east coast of Florida.

Here are your hurricane warnings, still in effect of all of the Bahamas. Not for the Turks and Caicos, however they are out from under the brunt of the storm. As you head on to the northwest, though, you run into a hurricane watch from the Seven Mile Bridge up to Florida City, and then from Florida City to Flagler Beach, you have a hurricane warning in effect. And inland -- that does include Lake Okeechobee. That means that you are expecting hurricane conditions in that area in the next 24 hours.

Here's what we're looking at now. The storm continuing to move to the west-northwest. The question now, of course, is whether or not it's going to take an anticipated northward turn. What we're looking at by 8:00 p.m. tonight is it continuing its track, with the winds still 145 miles an hour.

Watch this, as I move through time: This isn't going to change much at all, until the storm makes a projected landfall -- 8:00 a.m. on Friday. It's still working its way through the north central and northern Bahamas. As we go into Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, we expect it to be approaching the Florida coast. A lot of the models are now converging between Melbourne and West Palm Beach as the most likely area of landfall.

But do remember, we have this area of possibility that covers just about all of the east coast of Florida. 8:00 a.m. Saturday, we expect it to be inland. We expect it to go inland as a very strong storm, forecasting now Category 4, winds perhaps gusting to 180.

As it continues across Florida, it is expected to weaken -- Kyra, Miles?

PHILLIPS: All right, Orelon Sidney, thanks so much -- Miles?

O'BRIEN: Officials in the Bahamas say Frances could be the worst storm in that nation's history. CNN's Karl Penhaul joins us live videophone from Freeport.

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The islanders are aware of those warnings from the island administration, Miles. They do hear that this could be one of the worst storms in many, many years -- if not the worst storm ever. There was a little incredulity yesterday on the part of some islanders when we spoke to them. They said, "No, maybe the hurricane won't pass directly over us," as is forecast at present.

They cite the case of Hurricane Floyd in 1999 that was due to hit the island, and then veered northwards at the last moment. But there doesn't seem any sign of that at the moment with Hurricane Frances. All the forecasts are that that hurricane will pass directly over Freeport -- Freeport being about 90 miles from the Florida coastline.

Now, talking to chief meteorologists on the island, they said the most likely scenario is that towards the end of this afternoon and into this evening that we should begin to feel tropical storm force winds here. And then overnight and in the very early hours of tomorrow morning, those winds will build up and build up into the 140, 145 mile an hour winds that will make this the Category 4 hurricane that is expected to impact here, probably with full force by about midday Friday.

Now, the local inhabitants, of course, have been buying up plywood boards en masse. One storeowner told us in the last day-and- a-half, he sold more than 8,000 plywood sheets. Other storeowners tell us that they're clean out of plywood -- no more plywood left on the island to batten down the hatches.

Obviously, as well, the Bahamas, and here in Grand Bahamas, a tourist haven, many of the tourists -- principally U.S. tourists -- have now left the island. Some, however, have opted to stay, and they've been moved to safer hotels away from the ocean front to the interior of the island, probably four or five miles inland.

The Grand Bahamas is a very low lying area, and authorities here are warning of possible six to 14 feet tidal surges, and that would put a lot of this land underwater. Also, some of the cruise ships that traditionally dock here have left the area now, with their passengers onboard. And authorities tell us, probably, the last aircraft will leave from the airport at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. That effectively will be the last chance to leave the island -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Karl Penhaul in Freeport, thank you. We mentioned the storm is big. Here's a little perspective for you. If Frances were a state, it would be about the Size of Texas.

With that, we turn it over to the Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Ed Rappaport. Ed, what are the latest tracking indications telling you about this particular storm?

ED RAPPAPORT, DPT. DIR. NTL. HURRICANE CTR.: During the day, we've had a consolidation, a convergence of the forecast models. And now, every one of them shows a landfall in the Florida east coast. We had some hope previously that there would be a turnoff more towards the north and then offshore, but that doesn't look like it's going to occur this time.

And as I said, we've got all the models now converging on the Florida east coast, and so we have a hurricane warning up for much of that east coast, which means that preparations should be rushed to completion. This is a Category 4 hurricane. And for any location, that's really going to be a once-in-a-generation or once-in-a-lifetime impact, and so people need to prepare for just that.

O'BRIEN: Once-in-a-generation, once-in-a-lifetime -- words to remember. What do you know about it strengthening? Does it appear to be doing just that?

RAPPAPORT: Actually, there's a faint bit of good news in that the central pressure, as measured by the reconnaissance aircraft, has come up a little bit today. Haven't seen a change in the winds yet. But either way, we expect this will be a land-falling, major hurricane. And by major hurricane, we mean Category 3 or stronger, and that will mean extensive damage.

Something to keep in mind here is that Frances is much bigger than Charley, and bigger than, say, Andrew was. And so, we have perhaps 100 miles of hurricane force winds, and a swath of damage that could be that large on landfall.

O'BRIEN: Ed Rappaport, thank you very much -- Kyra. PHILLIPS: We're following another huge story this hour -- the ongoing hostage nightmare at a middle school in southern Russia. Today, more than two dozen women and children were released, but fragile negotiations are still being punctured with gunfire.

We get the latest from CNN's Ryan Chilcote, who's made his way to Beslan, near the Chechen border. What can you tell us, Ryan?

RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kyra, well, I just spoke with a spokesman from the regional government, and he was able to clarify some things. First, we'll start with the hostages themselves. Russian officials have been saying that there are 354 hostages inside the gymnasium of this school. This official is now telling me that they believe that the number is actually higher.

They do not believe that number of 354 is accurate. However, he said they do not know the exact number at this point. He also said that they have reports that they have not been able to confirm yet -- this is coming from this Russian official, this spokesman here -- that the hostage takers have begun separating the men from the women and children.

Now, as for the hostage takers themselves, some clarity there, as well. He says that they are dealing with between 16 and 20 hostage takers. Two of them, he says, they believe to be females. Perhaps, he says, in his words -- perhaps wearing suicide belts. Now, he said that contacts -- this is his word -- contacts continue between Russian authorities and the hostage takers inside, those apparently taking place over the telephone right now.

However, this afternoon, the first direct talks took place. That's when Ruslan Aushev, who is a regional leader here -- a former regional leader, very respected in this area, actually entered the school, and he was able to win the release of 26 women and children. They are all in good shape now and have gone home.

They are, of course, negotiating for the release of all of the hostages, but they're working on some smaller, very important, immediate issues in the meantime -- namely, they would like to get food and water, particularly, to the children. The Russians are very concerned that these children will not be able to make it much longer without food and water. It's already been more than 37 hours since they've had any food or water.

And also, out in front of the school, there are the bodies of seven people who were killed when the school was seized by these gunmen and gunwomen. Russian authorities are asking the hostage takers to let the relatives of those people that were killed collect their bodies.

PHILLIPS: Ryan Chilcote, live from Russia there on the standoff that's taking place. Twenty-six women and children now released. We're going to talk more about that next hour, and about the negotiation process with our Mike Brooks, law enforcement analyst.

Now, we are continuing to get more developing news out of Florida. More than a million Floridians, you know, are under mandatory evacuation orders, including the whole city of Miami Beach.

Eleven counties are now affected, at least in part, though the whole state is under a state of emergency. Authorities may convert highways and interstates to one way, leading away from the coast.

Let's get more now from reporter Steve Barrett of CNN affiliate WFTV in Orlando. He joins us live. Steve, what's the latest?

STEVE BARRETT, REPORTER, WFTV: Well, the latest is 8,000 of those hundreds of thousands of people who are evacuating right now are right here in this place. It's called Barefoot Bay, and it's right on the Brevard County/Indian River County line, right in the middle of that 160 mile swath of hurricane winds that are going to come through here.

These are the kinds of houses that emergency officials say you just absolutely must get out of. There's no safe place in a house like this. And these are filled with retirees, elderly people. Some of these people cannot get out of their houses. Some of them don't have any way to get away from their houses, in the way of a car.

So, what they've done here -- if you take a look over here -- school buses, they've actually brought these school buses in. They're going to go door to door -- actually, they started about 10 minutes ago, going door to door, knocking on homes, literally packing a suitcase for these elderly people, and then loading them up in their car or bringing them to one of these buses to get them out of their.

Very important, they say, to get out of these kinds of homes. Just in this county alone, 26,000 of these manufactured homes. And anyone who has been through Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Charley, you know that it literally just squashes these sorts of homes.

So, officials say it's absolutely imperative that people get out. But just in this area, Barefoot Bay, they say that they've already got a handful of people that just absolutely refuse to leave, and they say that is the most dangerous decision a person can make right now. Back to you.

PHILLIPS: Steve, you're saying that everyone has been ordered to get out of these type of homes. Are they able to protect their homes in any way?

BARRETT: You could board these homes up; you can do whatever you want. But I spent a lot of time looking at mobile home parks like this after Charley ripped through, and really, it just flattens them, it rips the roof clean off of them. There's not much that you can do for manufactured homes. If the hurricane hits them, many, if not most of them, are just going to be destroyed or flattened.

We saw that constantly during Charley. We saw it during Hurricane Andrew. So that's just what happens. The only thing you can really do is get out and save your own life, take some of your personal effects that really mean a lot to you with you, get to a shelter or get to a friend's.

PHILLIPS: Steve Barrett of our CNN affiliate WFTV in Orlando. Thanks, Steve.

O'BRIEN: A zealous Democrat -- you tired of those Zell Miller puns yet? Zell, no. He fires up a Republican audience. How is this playing into the party's strategy to win the White House? We'll talk about it. Party lines meet panty lines -- getting to the bottom of the protesters' messages.

PHILLIPS: Patriotic panty lines.

O'BRIEN: A little later on LIVE FROM. Counterpoint, you might say.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: ... bunch of the seats from the middle of the floor, and constructed this stage. And so, here came the president to check it out, to checkout the podium -- bring his wife Laura Bush along, and a whole gaggle of other people. Condoleezza Rice was there, Karen Hughes was there, some of the figures in his administration.

And then, he spent a huge amount of time just walking around waving, letting the cameras see him, schmoozing, schmoozing, schmoozing. And he made it a point to be seen with some of the New York City firemen who were in the hall. He is practicing a new election slogan, "Leave No Fireman Behind." Of course, he was, last night, in a firehouse in Queens.

All of this, of course, reviving memories of September 11th, which many consider the president's finest hour, when he first encountered the firemen in the rubble of the World Trade Center building. So here he was last night in Queens, getting an endorsement from the firefighters there.

John Kerry, the Democrat, of course, has the endorsement of several of the national firefighter union officials. So they're now both trying to take advantage of the popularity of firemen, particularly in the wake of September 11th. And when he was here, he actually called some of the firemen in the hall, the inspectors, that type of thing, to the stage.

He's expected this evening to talk about the economy some, but to talk about September 11th a lot, and the war on terror a lot, and defend the decision to go into Iraq, and try and sell himself on this special stage, not just to the people in the hall, but to the hundreds, thousands, millions perhaps, who will be watching outside as this convention comes to a close.

And then, the campaign officially -- at least officially in traditional ways -- officially begins. In fact, he's not spending the night here. He's going to battleground Pennsylvania, where he campaigns tomorrow -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Bob Franken in New York, thanks -- Kyra. PHILLIPS: Well, tonight, CNN's got your convention coverage. Seven Eastern kicks things off with Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, and "LARRY KING LIVE." At 10, the president takes the stage in the grand finale. But CNN stays up late with Aaron Brown. Are you staying up late with Aaron Brown, Miles? And another midnight "LARRY KING LIVE"...

O'BRIEN: No, I'm going to be listening for you on the radio, trying to find you again -- once again, getting Skip Caray and the Braves. I don't understand it.

All right, the stage is set for tonight's main event at Madison Square Garden. George Bush will try to make the case for a second term. Will this be the beginning of his effort to close the sale with voters, or a last hurrah before his most loyal supporters?

Joining us, former Congressman Bob Barr, now a CNN contributor, and Lisa Caputo, former aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Normally, I go ladies first, but Bob, you go first this time. I want you to play political consultant for just a moment. If you could give some advice to the president for tonight's speech, what would you tell him to do?

BOB BARR, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I would tell the president to be forward looking, to not dwell on the past, to not come out angry, as some of the speeches have been. But to be honest with you, to be more like Arnold Schwarzenegger, perhaps, than some of the other speakers here.

O'BRIEN: You mean, so -- have a funny accent, you mean that, or...

BARR: Well, I don't know if I'd go quite that far. But inject -- as Arnold did a little bit of humor. But be very, very positive and look toward the future, not the past. That's something that Mr. Kerry has not done, and Mr. Bush, I think, can increase his numbers right now by doing that tonight.

O'BRIEN: All right, Lisa, this is a little more of a stretch for you. If you could advise the president, taking away your political loyalties for just a moment, what would you tell him to do?

LISA CAPUTO, FMR. HILLARY CLINTON AIDE: Well, I think, Miles, you have to look back over the past three days. This has been a convention focused on two words: terrorism and war. And what I would advise the president to do is to layout his domestic agenda for the country. We haven't heard a word about any of the social programs.

How would he explain how he's going to attack rising healthcare costs? How is he going to explain how he would attack the loss of close to two million jobs across our country? How will he explain how he will deal with the rising prescription drug benefit issue? How will he explain the rising gas prices and our dependence on foreign oil?

I think what he's got to do tonight is layout to the country and make his case for the so-called ownership society and own his own agenda, and tell us how he's going to address these problems that, quite frankly, he's created.

O'BRIEN: But Lisa, to turn an old phrase for just a moment, isn't it this time around -- isn't it, "It's the war on terror, stupid?"

CAPUTO: Well, I think that clearly, the Bush-Cheney campaign is trying to position this race in those exact terms. There really hasn't been any other dialogue. It's really quite amazing when you look at it that this presidential campaign has become a debate about service in war. Yet, we've heard no mention about the fact that Vice President Cheney, nor President Bush, actually served in the military. And John Kerry did.

So they are trying to make this the centerpiece issue, which I think is a bogus issue when you look at the record.

O'BRIEN: Bob Barr, is it a bogus issue, or should the president be talking more about domestic issues -- economy, healthcare, education?

BARR: Certainly, it's not a bogus issue. And I don't know how Lisa can, with a straight face, claim that the security of our nation is a bogus issue. That's ridiculous. I will agree and...

O'BRIEN: No, no, no, that's not what she's saying, though. You know what she's saying, Bob. She's saying that turning...

BARR: I thought she said it was a bogus issue...

O'BRIEN: ... she's talking about turning Kerry's war record around on him, is what she's talking about.

CAPUTO: That's exactly right.

O'BRIEN: And not that the issue -- the issue is legitimate. We can all agree on that.

BARR: OK, well, let's start over then.

O'BRIEN: Let's accept her premise and press on if we could.

BARR: Pardon?

O'BRIEN: The premise is -- why don't we just ask you -- let me just ask you in a more straightforward way. Why isn't the president talking more about domestic issues?

BARR: Well, I think that they're not talking more about domestic issues, and frankly, I wish they would. I'd like to hear about the plans to reduce the deficit, reduce federal spending. I'd like to hear a debate about civil liberties, for example, something that I suspect Lisa and I agree, in large measure, on.

But I really suspect the administration is not talking about those because the polling indicates that the strength of the president, the strength of Mr. Cheney, lies in this other area, the national security, commander in chief mantle.

O'BRIEN: You know, I don't want to bury the lead. You just said you agreed with Lisa on something. So we might as well ask a follow up there. You have spoken out against the Patriot Act, specifically, as you talk about the issue of civil liberties. That has not been an issue front and center on the campaign. I've seen the ACLU out with some ads, but that's been it, pretty much.

BARR: It's unfortunate, because our civil liberties are, to me, the most important thing that our government ought to be protecting, rather than taking away. And it's not been a part of the debate, other than on the part of the administration to say they want more power rather than less. Mr. Kerry, although he has addressed it tangentially, has not really taken it on front and center, which I would like to see him do.

O'BRIEN: Lisa, do you actually agree with Bob Barr?

CAPUTO: Well, you know, I don't want to go to Congressman Barr's record on the Patriot Act. I think clearly, that's not what we're here to talk about. We're here to talk about the issues in the race. And I think, you know, John Kerry has been clear on this. And I would agree with Congressman Barr, the administration, the present administration just wants more power in this regard.

You know, Miles, you've got to look at the comparison of both conventions, the Democratic Convention versus the Republican Convention. The New York Times had a great analysis today in the paper, talking about how many times the word "war" was used in this convention and the speeches. It was something like 54 times. When you compare it to the top word used during the Democratic convention, which is "jobs."

There are new jobs numbers coming out on Friday that are not good news for the president. There's only been a creation of 150,000 jobs over the past month, and anybody who's done an analysis on this knows he's got to be creating 900,000 jobs a month to get back to where we were before he took office.

O'BRIEN: All right, Lisa Caputo, Bob Barr, thanks very much, appreciate your insights once again -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Next on LIVE FROM, case dismissed -- rape charges against Kobe Bryant dropped. But the NBA star is still not completely off the hook. Later on LIVE FROM, how do you negotiate with hostage takers strapped with bombs? Inside the efforts to free people held at a Russian school.

And tomorrow, preparing for Frances. We're tracking the storm and reporting live from areas affected by this powerful hurricane.

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Aired September 2, 2004 - 13:02   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: I want what Don had for lunch.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Poor Wolf.

O'BRIEN: All right...

PHILLIPS: He was eating up Wolf Blitzer is what he was doing.

O'BRIEN: ... we're going to press on here. It won't be as lively as that, at least at the start.

I'm Miles O'Brien, and this is LIVE FROM.

PHILLIPS: And I'm Kyra Phillips, glad you're with us. It's bigger than Charley by far -- bigger even than Andrew in '92, and it's determined, from all indications, to wreak devastation and make history.

It's Hurricane Francis, and unless it makes some unexpected turns, it will be the second Category 4 hurricane to strike the U.S. in a year. That's never happened in the 133 years the National Hurricane Center has been keeping records.

Actually, it's been only three weeks since Hurricane Charley slammed Florida's Gulf coast, with winds clocked at 145 miles an hour. Keeping an eye on Frances' winds, size, and directions, CNN's meteorologist Orelon Sidney.

A little historical fact for you there, but you already knew that, Orelon.

ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, I'll tell you what, that's news to me, because we were looking it up here in the Weather Center, and we hadn't found the answer yet. So, I appreciate it very much. And this is what we have at the current hour.

We're looking at a storm, still extremely strong at Category 4, 145 mile an hour winds, moving to the west-northwest at 13 miles an hour. If you're tracking it, it's 23.4 degrees north, 73.9 west, 450 miles east-southeast of the east coast of Florida.

Here are your hurricane warnings, still in effect of all of the Bahamas. Not for the Turks and Caicos, however they are out from under the brunt of the storm. As you head on to the northwest, though, you run into a hurricane watch from the Seven Mile Bridge up to Florida City, and then from Florida City to Flagler Beach, you have a hurricane warning in effect. And inland -- that does include Lake Okeechobee. That means that you are expecting hurricane conditions in that area in the next 24 hours.

Here's what we're looking at now. The storm continuing to move to the west-northwest. The question now, of course, is whether or not it's going to take an anticipated northward turn. What we're looking at by 8:00 p.m. tonight is it continuing its track, with the winds still 145 miles an hour.

Watch this, as I move through time: This isn't going to change much at all, until the storm makes a projected landfall -- 8:00 a.m. on Friday. It's still working its way through the north central and northern Bahamas. As we go into Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, we expect it to be approaching the Florida coast. A lot of the models are now converging between Melbourne and West Palm Beach as the most likely area of landfall.

But do remember, we have this area of possibility that covers just about all of the east coast of Florida. 8:00 a.m. Saturday, we expect it to be inland. We expect it to go inland as a very strong storm, forecasting now Category 4, winds perhaps gusting to 180.

As it continues across Florida, it is expected to weaken -- Kyra, Miles?

PHILLIPS: All right, Orelon Sidney, thanks so much -- Miles?

O'BRIEN: Officials in the Bahamas say Frances could be the worst storm in that nation's history. CNN's Karl Penhaul joins us live videophone from Freeport.

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The islanders are aware of those warnings from the island administration, Miles. They do hear that this could be one of the worst storms in many, many years -- if not the worst storm ever. There was a little incredulity yesterday on the part of some islanders when we spoke to them. They said, "No, maybe the hurricane won't pass directly over us," as is forecast at present.

They cite the case of Hurricane Floyd in 1999 that was due to hit the island, and then veered northwards at the last moment. But there doesn't seem any sign of that at the moment with Hurricane Frances. All the forecasts are that that hurricane will pass directly over Freeport -- Freeport being about 90 miles from the Florida coastline.

Now, talking to chief meteorologists on the island, they said the most likely scenario is that towards the end of this afternoon and into this evening that we should begin to feel tropical storm force winds here. And then overnight and in the very early hours of tomorrow morning, those winds will build up and build up into the 140, 145 mile an hour winds that will make this the Category 4 hurricane that is expected to impact here, probably with full force by about midday Friday.

Now, the local inhabitants, of course, have been buying up plywood boards en masse. One storeowner told us in the last day-and- a-half, he sold more than 8,000 plywood sheets. Other storeowners tell us that they're clean out of plywood -- no more plywood left on the island to batten down the hatches.

Obviously, as well, the Bahamas, and here in Grand Bahamas, a tourist haven, many of the tourists -- principally U.S. tourists -- have now left the island. Some, however, have opted to stay, and they've been moved to safer hotels away from the ocean front to the interior of the island, probably four or five miles inland.

The Grand Bahamas is a very low lying area, and authorities here are warning of possible six to 14 feet tidal surges, and that would put a lot of this land underwater. Also, some of the cruise ships that traditionally dock here have left the area now, with their passengers onboard. And authorities tell us, probably, the last aircraft will leave from the airport at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. That effectively will be the last chance to leave the island -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Karl Penhaul in Freeport, thank you. We mentioned the storm is big. Here's a little perspective for you. If Frances were a state, it would be about the Size of Texas.

With that, we turn it over to the Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Ed Rappaport. Ed, what are the latest tracking indications telling you about this particular storm?

ED RAPPAPORT, DPT. DIR. NTL. HURRICANE CTR.: During the day, we've had a consolidation, a convergence of the forecast models. And now, every one of them shows a landfall in the Florida east coast. We had some hope previously that there would be a turnoff more towards the north and then offshore, but that doesn't look like it's going to occur this time.

And as I said, we've got all the models now converging on the Florida east coast, and so we have a hurricane warning up for much of that east coast, which means that preparations should be rushed to completion. This is a Category 4 hurricane. And for any location, that's really going to be a once-in-a-generation or once-in-a-lifetime impact, and so people need to prepare for just that.

O'BRIEN: Once-in-a-generation, once-in-a-lifetime -- words to remember. What do you know about it strengthening? Does it appear to be doing just that?

RAPPAPORT: Actually, there's a faint bit of good news in that the central pressure, as measured by the reconnaissance aircraft, has come up a little bit today. Haven't seen a change in the winds yet. But either way, we expect this will be a land-falling, major hurricane. And by major hurricane, we mean Category 3 or stronger, and that will mean extensive damage.

Something to keep in mind here is that Frances is much bigger than Charley, and bigger than, say, Andrew was. And so, we have perhaps 100 miles of hurricane force winds, and a swath of damage that could be that large on landfall.

O'BRIEN: Ed Rappaport, thank you very much -- Kyra. PHILLIPS: We're following another huge story this hour -- the ongoing hostage nightmare at a middle school in southern Russia. Today, more than two dozen women and children were released, but fragile negotiations are still being punctured with gunfire.

We get the latest from CNN's Ryan Chilcote, who's made his way to Beslan, near the Chechen border. What can you tell us, Ryan?

RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kyra, well, I just spoke with a spokesman from the regional government, and he was able to clarify some things. First, we'll start with the hostages themselves. Russian officials have been saying that there are 354 hostages inside the gymnasium of this school. This official is now telling me that they believe that the number is actually higher.

They do not believe that number of 354 is accurate. However, he said they do not know the exact number at this point. He also said that they have reports that they have not been able to confirm yet -- this is coming from this Russian official, this spokesman here -- that the hostage takers have begun separating the men from the women and children.

Now, as for the hostage takers themselves, some clarity there, as well. He says that they are dealing with between 16 and 20 hostage takers. Two of them, he says, they believe to be females. Perhaps, he says, in his words -- perhaps wearing suicide belts. Now, he said that contacts -- this is his word -- contacts continue between Russian authorities and the hostage takers inside, those apparently taking place over the telephone right now.

However, this afternoon, the first direct talks took place. That's when Ruslan Aushev, who is a regional leader here -- a former regional leader, very respected in this area, actually entered the school, and he was able to win the release of 26 women and children. They are all in good shape now and have gone home.

They are, of course, negotiating for the release of all of the hostages, but they're working on some smaller, very important, immediate issues in the meantime -- namely, they would like to get food and water, particularly, to the children. The Russians are very concerned that these children will not be able to make it much longer without food and water. It's already been more than 37 hours since they've had any food or water.

And also, out in front of the school, there are the bodies of seven people who were killed when the school was seized by these gunmen and gunwomen. Russian authorities are asking the hostage takers to let the relatives of those people that were killed collect their bodies.

PHILLIPS: Ryan Chilcote, live from Russia there on the standoff that's taking place. Twenty-six women and children now released. We're going to talk more about that next hour, and about the negotiation process with our Mike Brooks, law enforcement analyst.

Now, we are continuing to get more developing news out of Florida. More than a million Floridians, you know, are under mandatory evacuation orders, including the whole city of Miami Beach.

Eleven counties are now affected, at least in part, though the whole state is under a state of emergency. Authorities may convert highways and interstates to one way, leading away from the coast.

Let's get more now from reporter Steve Barrett of CNN affiliate WFTV in Orlando. He joins us live. Steve, what's the latest?

STEVE BARRETT, REPORTER, WFTV: Well, the latest is 8,000 of those hundreds of thousands of people who are evacuating right now are right here in this place. It's called Barefoot Bay, and it's right on the Brevard County/Indian River County line, right in the middle of that 160 mile swath of hurricane winds that are going to come through here.

These are the kinds of houses that emergency officials say you just absolutely must get out of. There's no safe place in a house like this. And these are filled with retirees, elderly people. Some of these people cannot get out of their houses. Some of them don't have any way to get away from their houses, in the way of a car.

So, what they've done here -- if you take a look over here -- school buses, they've actually brought these school buses in. They're going to go door to door -- actually, they started about 10 minutes ago, going door to door, knocking on homes, literally packing a suitcase for these elderly people, and then loading them up in their car or bringing them to one of these buses to get them out of their.

Very important, they say, to get out of these kinds of homes. Just in this county alone, 26,000 of these manufactured homes. And anyone who has been through Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Charley, you know that it literally just squashes these sorts of homes.

So, officials say it's absolutely imperative that people get out. But just in this area, Barefoot Bay, they say that they've already got a handful of people that just absolutely refuse to leave, and they say that is the most dangerous decision a person can make right now. Back to you.

PHILLIPS: Steve, you're saying that everyone has been ordered to get out of these type of homes. Are they able to protect their homes in any way?

BARRETT: You could board these homes up; you can do whatever you want. But I spent a lot of time looking at mobile home parks like this after Charley ripped through, and really, it just flattens them, it rips the roof clean off of them. There's not much that you can do for manufactured homes. If the hurricane hits them, many, if not most of them, are just going to be destroyed or flattened.

We saw that constantly during Charley. We saw it during Hurricane Andrew. So that's just what happens. The only thing you can really do is get out and save your own life, take some of your personal effects that really mean a lot to you with you, get to a shelter or get to a friend's.

PHILLIPS: Steve Barrett of our CNN affiliate WFTV in Orlando. Thanks, Steve.

O'BRIEN: A zealous Democrat -- you tired of those Zell Miller puns yet? Zell, no. He fires up a Republican audience. How is this playing into the party's strategy to win the White House? We'll talk about it. Party lines meet panty lines -- getting to the bottom of the protesters' messages.

PHILLIPS: Patriotic panty lines.

O'BRIEN: A little later on LIVE FROM. Counterpoint, you might say.

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BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: ... bunch of the seats from the middle of the floor, and constructed this stage. And so, here came the president to check it out, to checkout the podium -- bring his wife Laura Bush along, and a whole gaggle of other people. Condoleezza Rice was there, Karen Hughes was there, some of the figures in his administration.

And then, he spent a huge amount of time just walking around waving, letting the cameras see him, schmoozing, schmoozing, schmoozing. And he made it a point to be seen with some of the New York City firemen who were in the hall. He is practicing a new election slogan, "Leave No Fireman Behind." Of course, he was, last night, in a firehouse in Queens.

All of this, of course, reviving memories of September 11th, which many consider the president's finest hour, when he first encountered the firemen in the rubble of the World Trade Center building. So here he was last night in Queens, getting an endorsement from the firefighters there.

John Kerry, the Democrat, of course, has the endorsement of several of the national firefighter union officials. So they're now both trying to take advantage of the popularity of firemen, particularly in the wake of September 11th. And when he was here, he actually called some of the firemen in the hall, the inspectors, that type of thing, to the stage.

He's expected this evening to talk about the economy some, but to talk about September 11th a lot, and the war on terror a lot, and defend the decision to go into Iraq, and try and sell himself on this special stage, not just to the people in the hall, but to the hundreds, thousands, millions perhaps, who will be watching outside as this convention comes to a close.

And then, the campaign officially -- at least officially in traditional ways -- officially begins. In fact, he's not spending the night here. He's going to battleground Pennsylvania, where he campaigns tomorrow -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Bob Franken in New York, thanks -- Kyra. PHILLIPS: Well, tonight, CNN's got your convention coverage. Seven Eastern kicks things off with Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, and "LARRY KING LIVE." At 10, the president takes the stage in the grand finale. But CNN stays up late with Aaron Brown. Are you staying up late with Aaron Brown, Miles? And another midnight "LARRY KING LIVE"...

O'BRIEN: No, I'm going to be listening for you on the radio, trying to find you again -- once again, getting Skip Caray and the Braves. I don't understand it.

All right, the stage is set for tonight's main event at Madison Square Garden. George Bush will try to make the case for a second term. Will this be the beginning of his effort to close the sale with voters, or a last hurrah before his most loyal supporters?

Joining us, former Congressman Bob Barr, now a CNN contributor, and Lisa Caputo, former aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Normally, I go ladies first, but Bob, you go first this time. I want you to play political consultant for just a moment. If you could give some advice to the president for tonight's speech, what would you tell him to do?

BOB BARR, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I would tell the president to be forward looking, to not dwell on the past, to not come out angry, as some of the speeches have been. But to be honest with you, to be more like Arnold Schwarzenegger, perhaps, than some of the other speakers here.

O'BRIEN: You mean, so -- have a funny accent, you mean that, or...

BARR: Well, I don't know if I'd go quite that far. But inject -- as Arnold did a little bit of humor. But be very, very positive and look toward the future, not the past. That's something that Mr. Kerry has not done, and Mr. Bush, I think, can increase his numbers right now by doing that tonight.

O'BRIEN: All right, Lisa, this is a little more of a stretch for you. If you could advise the president, taking away your political loyalties for just a moment, what would you tell him to do?

LISA CAPUTO, FMR. HILLARY CLINTON AIDE: Well, I think, Miles, you have to look back over the past three days. This has been a convention focused on two words: terrorism and war. And what I would advise the president to do is to layout his domestic agenda for the country. We haven't heard a word about any of the social programs.

How would he explain how he's going to attack rising healthcare costs? How is he going to explain how he would attack the loss of close to two million jobs across our country? How will he explain how he will deal with the rising prescription drug benefit issue? How will he explain the rising gas prices and our dependence on foreign oil?

I think what he's got to do tonight is layout to the country and make his case for the so-called ownership society and own his own agenda, and tell us how he's going to address these problems that, quite frankly, he's created.

O'BRIEN: But Lisa, to turn an old phrase for just a moment, isn't it this time around -- isn't it, "It's the war on terror, stupid?"

CAPUTO: Well, I think that clearly, the Bush-Cheney campaign is trying to position this race in those exact terms. There really hasn't been any other dialogue. It's really quite amazing when you look at it that this presidential campaign has become a debate about service in war. Yet, we've heard no mention about the fact that Vice President Cheney, nor President Bush, actually served in the military. And John Kerry did.

So they are trying to make this the centerpiece issue, which I think is a bogus issue when you look at the record.

O'BRIEN: Bob Barr, is it a bogus issue, or should the president be talking more about domestic issues -- economy, healthcare, education?

BARR: Certainly, it's not a bogus issue. And I don't know how Lisa can, with a straight face, claim that the security of our nation is a bogus issue. That's ridiculous. I will agree and...

O'BRIEN: No, no, no, that's not what she's saying, though. You know what she's saying, Bob. She's saying that turning...

BARR: I thought she said it was a bogus issue...

O'BRIEN: ... she's talking about turning Kerry's war record around on him, is what she's talking about.

CAPUTO: That's exactly right.

O'BRIEN: And not that the issue -- the issue is legitimate. We can all agree on that.

BARR: OK, well, let's start over then.

O'BRIEN: Let's accept her premise and press on if we could.

BARR: Pardon?

O'BRIEN: The premise is -- why don't we just ask you -- let me just ask you in a more straightforward way. Why isn't the president talking more about domestic issues?

BARR: Well, I think that they're not talking more about domestic issues, and frankly, I wish they would. I'd like to hear about the plans to reduce the deficit, reduce federal spending. I'd like to hear a debate about civil liberties, for example, something that I suspect Lisa and I agree, in large measure, on.

But I really suspect the administration is not talking about those because the polling indicates that the strength of the president, the strength of Mr. Cheney, lies in this other area, the national security, commander in chief mantle.

O'BRIEN: You know, I don't want to bury the lead. You just said you agreed with Lisa on something. So we might as well ask a follow up there. You have spoken out against the Patriot Act, specifically, as you talk about the issue of civil liberties. That has not been an issue front and center on the campaign. I've seen the ACLU out with some ads, but that's been it, pretty much.

BARR: It's unfortunate, because our civil liberties are, to me, the most important thing that our government ought to be protecting, rather than taking away. And it's not been a part of the debate, other than on the part of the administration to say they want more power rather than less. Mr. Kerry, although he has addressed it tangentially, has not really taken it on front and center, which I would like to see him do.

O'BRIEN: Lisa, do you actually agree with Bob Barr?

CAPUTO: Well, you know, I don't want to go to Congressman Barr's record on the Patriot Act. I think clearly, that's not what we're here to talk about. We're here to talk about the issues in the race. And I think, you know, John Kerry has been clear on this. And I would agree with Congressman Barr, the administration, the present administration just wants more power in this regard.

You know, Miles, you've got to look at the comparison of both conventions, the Democratic Convention versus the Republican Convention. The New York Times had a great analysis today in the paper, talking about how many times the word "war" was used in this convention and the speeches. It was something like 54 times. When you compare it to the top word used during the Democratic convention, which is "jobs."

There are new jobs numbers coming out on Friday that are not good news for the president. There's only been a creation of 150,000 jobs over the past month, and anybody who's done an analysis on this knows he's got to be creating 900,000 jobs a month to get back to where we were before he took office.

O'BRIEN: All right, Lisa Caputo, Bob Barr, thanks very much, appreciate your insights once again -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Next on LIVE FROM, case dismissed -- rape charges against Kobe Bryant dropped. But the NBA star is still not completely off the hook. Later on LIVE FROM, how do you negotiate with hostage takers strapped with bombs? Inside the efforts to free people held at a Russian school.

And tomorrow, preparing for Frances. We're tracking the storm and reporting live from areas affected by this powerful hurricane.

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