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Live From...
Hurricane Ivan's Path; U.S. Warplanes hit Targets in Fallujah; Space Craft Crash
Aired September 09, 2004 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the Jamaican prime minister is telling his nation to pray for god's care as Ivan draws closer by the minute. CNN's Karl Penhaul is there. He joins us now on the phone from Kingston -- Karl.
KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Kyra.
In downtown Kingston right now, it's absolute gridlock in certain parts of the city as people both leave their offices to go home and make last-minute hurricane preparations, and as others head toward the supermarket in their vehicles to pick up last-minute supplies. It seems that this last-minute panic spree has been prompted by that televised message by Prime Minister P.J. Patterson last night.
He called on Jamaicans to prepare for imminent danger, and he also called on them, in his words, to prepare for the "worst-case scenario." At least a warning that when the hurricane strikes, if flooding does occur, as is widely expected, then up to 300,000 people could be in the path of flood waters, and they may be needed to be evacuated at an emergency measure -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Karl, we know about American Red Cross, and we have seen the shelters. We've seen how they have been able to respond, these certain organizations in Florida. But Jamaica, there are some very rural areas.
What type of response has the prime minister there in Jamaica talked about? What kind of organizations do they have set up to tend to those that will need help immediately once this hurricane hits?
PENHAUL: Well, certainly, all state schools have been closed down. Now, the pupils have been sent home and those schools have been turned into emergency shelters, along with most of the churches on the island, as well. Certainly those of sturdier structures. So there are places for people to flee to.
But what the prime minister and the crisis committee, the emergency relief program, is calling on is for people not to worry so much about the winds, but to pay most attention to rising flood waters and to get to higher ground. The biggest concern is for low-lying areas on the southeast of the island that will be impacted, we understand, by dawn tomorrow. And so that's the initial concern of the Jamaican authorities is to get those people to higher ground and make sure that they're safe in the first instance -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Our Karl Penhaul by phone, reporting there from Kingston. Thanks, Karl -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With a single highway connecting the Florida Keys to the rest of the state, the key to surviving hurricanes becomes, well, early preparation. CNN's Susan Candiotti checks in from Miami with more on all that.
Hello, Susan.
SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Miles.
Yes, in the Florida Keys there's one way in and one way out if you have been there before. An evacuation order is already under way there, this time targeting for now visitors and tourists in the Florida Keys.
There are about 10,000 of them or so at this time of year, also people living in mobile homes and using recreational vehicles. Fortunately for tourism this is the slowest time of the year in the Florida Keys. For now, officials tell me gasoline is in pretty good supply as people begin to make their way north.
Now, as far as residents, there are about 79,000 of them. And the intent at this time is to begin ordering their evacuation probably around 7:00 tomorrow morning, I am told. However, that could change. The question is, will they pay attention to those evacuation orders?
The last time there was a total evacuation order for the Florida Keys was in 2001. That was when Hurricane Michelle approached. That was a Category 4 storm, but it wound up just slightly missing the Florida Keys. It didn't get a direct hit.
The last time there was a direct hit was back in 1998 with Hurricane George, as you might recall. It eventually wound up on the Gulf Coast.
Now, this morning, Florida's governor, Jeb Bush, was asked about the unfortunate timing of these -- of these storms approaching the Florida coast. And he said, "You know, you would think a Hollywood screenwriter might have gotten hold of the scenario, with two hits, as well as a possible third hit." He was asked how the state's holding up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: It won't be easy, but we intend to do it. We have to.
We have emergency operation workers across the state that are frayed, given the 24/7, you know, context that they have been living in and working in. We are going to have some meetings at the Mercy Operations Center (ph) to see what additional relief we can get, support we can get from outside the state.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CANDIOTTI: As you know, Florida is still reeling from two hurricanes, Hurricane Charley back on August 13, Frances hitting just last Sunday. One on the west coast, one on the east coast. Who knows about this track. And as Governor Jeb Bush put it, in his words, "Welcome to our world" -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: And to think they call it the Sunshine State. OK. Susan Candiotti, thank you very much.
Orelon Sidney is up in the weather center. I don't think she has left there for about three weeks now, pretty much.
Orelon, this storm -- do us a favor, if you could just give us a quick comparison. I know it's early on, but compare it to the other two we've seen. Much bigger, much stronger, or what?
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, it's similar in strength, actually, to Charley at one point. And even Frances had pressure down to 900 -- I think 937 millibars. But this one is stronger than either one of those as far as pressure is concerned.
The current pressure is 923 millibars. And that's what we meteorologists use to give you an idea of how intense the storm is.
The pressure, of course, dropping. The wind speed goes up. So the lower the pressure the higher the wind speed. And this, indeed, has higher wind speeds than either Charley or Frances.
Winds are up to 160 miles an hour. So really, in a way, no comparison here, especially if it manages to hold itself together over the near term.
A Category 5, winds 160 right now, moving to the west-northwest at 15, 360 miles southeast of Kingston. This is the 2:00 p.m. advisory from the hurricane center.
You can see where it currently ranks with 923 millibars. It's just under the strength of Andrew at landfall. Now, we don't know if it's going to continue that strength, but we do know that Jamaica definitely has some problems over the next 24 hours.
In fact, it is supposed to make landfall in 24 hours. Hurricane warning is in effect there.
As we take a look a little bit further out now, we start off tomorrow with it moving through Jamaica, probably fluctuating between Category 4 and 5, up to the point of making impact on Cuba. And then the forecast track becomes really dicey.
Look at how wide it gets all the way from the central Gulf of Mexico back to the Bahamas, looking for a potential landfall in Florida. But remember, there's a big area of possibility. If you live anywhere along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, up the Eastern Seaboard, I'd say, to about Charleston, prepare for the potential of this storm heading in your direction -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Orelon Sidney, thank you very much -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Turning now to presidential politics. All four candidates are vying for votes out on the campaign trail today.
President Bush is in Pennsylvania. Democrat John Kerry is in Iowa. Vice President Dick Cheney is in Ohio. And Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, is in New Hampshire.
Bush spoke about economic recovery and opportunities in Pennsylvania earlier today. The race is close in this battleground state. A new CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll has the president and John Kerry in a dead heat.
Meanwhile, the president is facing another round of attacks of his National Guard service during the 1970s. There are new ads that question his stint in Alabama.
Now the man who says he helped the president and others avoid active duty in Vietnam is going on camera. Former Texas Lieutenant Governor Ben Barnes spoke on CBS's "60 Minutes."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BEN BARNES, FMR. TEXAS LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: I was a young, ambitious politician, doing what I thought was acceptable, that was important to make friends. And I recommended a lot of people for the -- for the National Guard during the Vietnam era as speaker of the House and as lieutenant governor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And you recommended George W. Bush?
BARNES: Yes, I did. I would describe it as preferential treatment.
There were hundreds of names on the list of people wanting to get in the Air National Guard or the Army National Guard. I think that would have been a preference to anybody that didn't want to go to Vietnam, that didn't want to leave.
We had a lot of young men that left and went to Canada in the '60s and fled this country. But those that could get in the Reserves or those that could get in the National Guard, chances are they would not have to go to Vietnam.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: So will the debate over the president's National Guard service impact your vote? E-mail your thoughts to livefrom@cnn.com. We'll air some of your e-mails next hour.
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is seeking support in the battleground state of Iowa. He criticized the president's health care plan to voters in Des Moines. Kerry says that Bush failed to hold down health care costs during his four years in office. Kerry's criticism comes the same day a study finds a double-digit increase in insurance premiums for the fourth year in a row.
O'BRIEN: Now to the war in Iraq. Diplomatic efforts are reported under way to secure the relief of two female Italian aide workers kidnapped on Tuesday. An Italian envoy is in the Middle East for those talks.
The women were taken from their offices in Baghdad. It's still unclear who took them, however.
Meanwhile, a U.S. strike against militants in the Sunni stronghold of Fallujah to tell you about. CNN's Diana Muriel has that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: U.S. air strikes continuing in Fallujah on Wednesday into Thursday. The latest in the series of air strikes that have been mounted by U.S. forces from a base outside of the city.
The U.S. forces telling CNN that the strikes have mounted as a result of intelligence gathered that there were insurgents operating in specific targeted locations. One of the targets, a house in a residential area.
The house was destroyed, and three others in the immediate vicinity were also badly damaged. According to the Ministry of Health here in Baghdad, there were four children killed in the explosion. Seven were wounded. Three women and three men were killed, and four women and four men were wounded in the blast, as well.
The U.S. military say that they were -- that they had intelligence that insurgents were operating from that area, and that they regret the loss of civilian life. However, they say that foreign fighters will find no foothold in Fallujah. A determination, it seems, from the U.S. to continue with these long-range air strikes on these -- these particular targets.
The people who were helping to clear the wreckage, looking for survivors, were very subdued on Thursday morning as they surveyed the scene. They are angry, not only at the Americans, but also at the way in which the insurgents appear to be using residential districts of Fallujah as a form of human shield.
There have been negotiations in the city amongst the leaders of the community there to try and get the insurgents to move their operations away from the residential district to two industrial areas in another part of the city. This strategy has so far failed. U.S. forces also saying that insurgents are operating in these residential areas, and although they regret the loss of civilian life, they will continue to target them.
Diana Muriel, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, whether you think he did his duty or shirked it, does debate over the president's National Guard service matter to you? E-mail us. We'll read them, straight ahead.
Accident or self-defense? Find out what happens when you try to shoot the wrong puppy. That's right, shooting a puppy. Can you believe that? Animals fight back when LIVE FROM returns.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: In a clean room in the Utah desert right now, NASA engineers and scientists are combing through the wreckage of the Genesis space capsule today, trying to find out what went wrong. Perhaps, more important, trying to salvage a little bit of science out of it.
The $264 million craft augured into the desert yesterday. You saw it live here on CNN. All this as NASA's administrator Sean O'Keefe faced Congress to discuss the NASA budget, which is another matter entirely.
Sean O'Keefe joins us now live from Washington with more on the budget, Genesis, and how the hurricane cleanup is going at the Cape.
Good to have you with us, sir.
SEAN O'KEEFE, NASA ADMINISTRATOR: Well, thanks, Miles. Nice to be with you.
O'BRIEN: All right. First of all, what indications are you getting from your team there in Utah as to the possibility of recovering some degree of science out of this?
We should remind our viewers that they were so concerned about the fragility of these wafers containing pieces of the solar wind, that they didn't even want to have it land by parachute. Instead, it dropped in at 193 miles an hour.
O'KEEFE: Well, indeed. You put your finger right to it, Miles.
The whole point of the exercise here is to have a sample return from these solar winds that the Genesis spacecraft collected. And if we can recover that science package, that's the goal of the whole exercise here.
It's an inelegant landing, no doubt about it. It was really a very, very difficult, less than ideal condition of recovery of the spacecraft. But if we can get the science returned from it, it's still a success. And we're still going to be looking forward to that.
So that's not yet determined. We'll see what the analysts all come back with here in the very short hours and days ahead to determine exactly what can be recoverable. I'm still hopeful.
O'BRIEN: It wasn't just the fragility of the wafers which captured these, really records of the formation of our solar system. It was also the fact they had to be pure, kept in a clean room, not exposed to the atmosphere. And obviously that has occurred, the wafers have been exposed. What science can be derived out of it, if it has been sort of tainted by Earth's atmosphere.
O'KEEFE: Well, it depends. There are some aspects of it that may have been tainted, other parts that may not have been damaged at all.
What really struck the engineers on site was how, given the fact it came in at almost 200 miles an hour and struck the surface in the manner that it did, it still withstood an awful lot of that incredible impact. So it's a testimony of how rugged this piece of machinery is.
We'll see how much is recoverable. I wouldn't want to speculate yet on what parts are or not.
O'BRIEN: All right. We're only 26 hours out from this occurrence. A lot of speculation that maybe there might have been a dead battery or faulty timer or an accelerometer, any number of things that could have gone wrong. Do have you any insights for us on that?
O'KEEFE: No. We've got an investigation team working it right now. And we'll come to some solutions here, I think, pretty quickly.
But the primary objective is to understand what went wrong. It's clear that the chute did deploy but did not engage in the manner it was supposed to. And that has been tested, you know, lots and lots of times and never had a problem like this. So we'll have to see exactly what it was that caused it.
O'BRIEN: All right -- $264 million mission. In the grand scheme of space missions, that's not an expensive mission, you know, when you consider a shuttle flight as two or three times more, a single shuttle flight. Nevertheless, what do you say to taxpayers who say, "What did I get for my money on this one?"
O'KEEFE: This is a really risky business. It really is. I mean, every single day we're trying to do something that typically has not been done by anybody before.
And when it's triumphant and when it's a success, it's a big success. When it's a failure, it's also a real setback. There's no doubt about it.
But in this case, again, we're not prepared to write this off. There is -- you know, again, if the outcome is still successful for the science package, that was the point. How it comes in and what the return looked like, however inelegant, was not the point of the whole mission in the first place. We'll see.
O'BRIEN: All right. The cost -- the cost of bringing the shuttle back on line, return to flight, while this is happening, almost simultaneously you were testifying to Congress that it's going to cost about $2.2 billion to get the shuttle safe and ready to fly again. The current date is March. But, nevertheless, that would be 10 Genesis missions. That's a lot of money.
Why is it costing so much? What are the big holdups? And what are the big concerns at this juncture?
O'KEEFE: Well, part of it is not necessarily a one-time only cost. This is sustaining expenses in order to establish the strength of the engineering, the kind of team that the Columbia accident investigation board recommended to beef up the inspections to be sure we do this right.
The other part is front-loading some of the expenses. What we're doing right now that all the shuttle orbiters are grounded is we are doing major modifications on all three of them.
We are typically doing what would have otherwise taken us over five years in sequence of one orbiter at a time. We're doing all three of them simultaneously. So this isn't so much an increase in cost, as much as it is a confinement and front-loading of those costs right now in order to assure that we use this time when the shuttle is grounded to the best, most efficient way possible.
O'BRIEN: All right. And a quick final thought. We are just about out of time.
But just -- we have seen the damage, heard about the damage at the Cape because of the hurricane. Do you have any inkling as to how much that might set back your efforts, returning the shuttle to flight at this point?
O'KEEFE: Not quite yet. I think so far we really dodged some significant problems here in the sense that all three of the orbiters, the Atlantis, the Endeavor and Discovery, are in great shape.
The shuttle hardware is in good shape. The space station components to be launched all were undamaged. We had some significant facility, building damage that we've got to assess. But in terms of what that will do, in terms of return to flight at this juncture, is a little early to tell. But there's no showstoppers we can see here.
O'BRIEN: All right. Sean O'Keefe, NASA administrator. Thanks for your time.
O'KEEFE: Good to be with you, Miles. Thank you.
O'BRIEN: All right -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, this just coming in to CNN. Apparently a videotape has surfaced with Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al- Zawahiri, making a statement. We're looking at it right now.
Our Nic Robertson working that story. He's going to join us right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
PHILLIPS: And this just coming in to CNN. Apparently, a videotape has surfaced. The voice and actually the pictures of Osama bin Laden's deputy, let's get right to it. Our Nic Robertson has been briefed on the tape.
What do you know?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, first of all, this is interesting because it's the first time we are seeing on tape a video and audio message together. It's coming very close to September the 11th. Last year they released -- al Qaeda released a videotape, but the audio was a separate audio transcript. The same year before.
Now we're seeing Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two to Osama bin Laden, appearing on the tape. It has been released and played by Al- Jazeera, the Gulf broadcaster. But at the moment, the audio clip, the portion that they've released so far, deals with Afghanistan.
Ayman al-Zawahiri says that U.S. forces are on the run essentially in southern and eastern Afghanistan, that what he describes as the Mujahadin are in control in south and eastern Afghanistan.
There may be other information yet on this tape, but so far that is what has been played out. That's what Al-Jazeera has. But it is coming, again, very close to the anniversary of September 11th.
This is very typical for al Qaeda. And now they have got pictures and sound together. And Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's number two.
PHILLIPS: All right. How do we know about the timing? Can we confirm that this was a tape that was made recently?
ROBERTSON: We don't know. At this stage, it just too early to tell.
What we will look for when we hear more of the tape, are there any time references, does he make any reference to any recent events? That will give us clues to when it was recorded.
I think perhaps one of the other interesting things about this tape is that Ayman al-Zawahiri, compared to the last time we saw him, which was a year ago on a videotape released on al Qaeda, he has aged, he has aged considerably. This, again, an indication of perhaps the conditions that he and maybe Osama bin Laden, with him, are living under.
PHILLIPS: Do you know if he's mentioned anything about U.S. troops in Afghanistan or like? Does he mention Iraq at all?
ROBERTSON: So far only Afghanistan. He says that the U.S. troops there are essentially on the run, that they are afraid to come out of their bases.
What he describes are the Mujahadin -- now, this may a reference to the Taliban, to the Pashtun anti-Afghan government, tribal elements inside that south and eastern portion of Afghanistan. But he describes it as the Mujahadin. And they are in control of that area.
Now, at this time, U.S. troops are there. They go out on patrol. There are governments put in place in the south and eastern of Afghanistan, local governments that have been put in place by the central Afghan government. So the claim doesn't seem to bear witness to what is happening on the ground. But certainly, there has been an upsurge and a gathering, if one talks to security officials in Afghanistan, a gathering and an upsurge in the capability of those Mujahadin fighters in that area that he describes.
PHILLIPS: Aren't there supposed to be elections going on right now in Afghanistan?
ROBERTSON: The beginning of October there are elections expected. U.N. officials involved in those elections have expressed concerns about how the elections will be carried out, specifically in that south and eastern area of Afghanistan.
It does tend to be the area that is less stable. But this claim from Ayman al-Zawahiri, at this stage, certainly doesn't seem to bear up to the facts on the ground.
PHILLIPS: All right. So at this point, as you translate -- and you're just getting this tape in -- nothing about another 9/11 or another attack as we approach, of course, the third anniversary of 9/11?
ROBERTSON: No threats. But absolutely the symbolism there of al Qaeda choosing -- it appears choosing to release the tape at this time, so close to the anniversary.
PHILLIPS: Sure. All right. Our Nic Robertson. Thanks so much.
Once again, you are looking at video right now of the tape that we just got in. You're looking at Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al- Zawahiri, as you know, the number two under Osama bin Laden, talking about taking control of much of Afghanistan and driving U.S. forces out.
Nic, we haven't had any response from the U.S. government on this yet, have we?
ROBERTSON: To my knowledge, we haven't. Oftentimes, when it's been audiotaped, there's an analysis done on whether or not this person who is claimed to be Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri is speaking.
Again, this time video, video and audio together, it very much looks like Ayman al-Zawahiri. That part doesn't seem to be in question that it was him. Just when it was recorded and maybe, perhaps, where again. The intelligence community is going to look at this, what clues can they ascertain to where Zawahiri may be hiding.
PHILLIPS: All right. I know you are working this. Come back when have you more for us, OK? Nic Robertson, thanks -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Oil prices are up, which means the stock market is down. Fred Katayama is watching it for us.
(STOCK MARKET REPORT) (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired September 9, 2004 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the Jamaican prime minister is telling his nation to pray for god's care as Ivan draws closer by the minute. CNN's Karl Penhaul is there. He joins us now on the phone from Kingston -- Karl.
KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Kyra.
In downtown Kingston right now, it's absolute gridlock in certain parts of the city as people both leave their offices to go home and make last-minute hurricane preparations, and as others head toward the supermarket in their vehicles to pick up last-minute supplies. It seems that this last-minute panic spree has been prompted by that televised message by Prime Minister P.J. Patterson last night.
He called on Jamaicans to prepare for imminent danger, and he also called on them, in his words, to prepare for the "worst-case scenario." At least a warning that when the hurricane strikes, if flooding does occur, as is widely expected, then up to 300,000 people could be in the path of flood waters, and they may be needed to be evacuated at an emergency measure -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Karl, we know about American Red Cross, and we have seen the shelters. We've seen how they have been able to respond, these certain organizations in Florida. But Jamaica, there are some very rural areas.
What type of response has the prime minister there in Jamaica talked about? What kind of organizations do they have set up to tend to those that will need help immediately once this hurricane hits?
PENHAUL: Well, certainly, all state schools have been closed down. Now, the pupils have been sent home and those schools have been turned into emergency shelters, along with most of the churches on the island, as well. Certainly those of sturdier structures. So there are places for people to flee to.
But what the prime minister and the crisis committee, the emergency relief program, is calling on is for people not to worry so much about the winds, but to pay most attention to rising flood waters and to get to higher ground. The biggest concern is for low-lying areas on the southeast of the island that will be impacted, we understand, by dawn tomorrow. And so that's the initial concern of the Jamaican authorities is to get those people to higher ground and make sure that they're safe in the first instance -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Our Karl Penhaul by phone, reporting there from Kingston. Thanks, Karl -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With a single highway connecting the Florida Keys to the rest of the state, the key to surviving hurricanes becomes, well, early preparation. CNN's Susan Candiotti checks in from Miami with more on all that.
Hello, Susan.
SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Miles.
Yes, in the Florida Keys there's one way in and one way out if you have been there before. An evacuation order is already under way there, this time targeting for now visitors and tourists in the Florida Keys.
There are about 10,000 of them or so at this time of year, also people living in mobile homes and using recreational vehicles. Fortunately for tourism this is the slowest time of the year in the Florida Keys. For now, officials tell me gasoline is in pretty good supply as people begin to make their way north.
Now, as far as residents, there are about 79,000 of them. And the intent at this time is to begin ordering their evacuation probably around 7:00 tomorrow morning, I am told. However, that could change. The question is, will they pay attention to those evacuation orders?
The last time there was a total evacuation order for the Florida Keys was in 2001. That was when Hurricane Michelle approached. That was a Category 4 storm, but it wound up just slightly missing the Florida Keys. It didn't get a direct hit.
The last time there was a direct hit was back in 1998 with Hurricane George, as you might recall. It eventually wound up on the Gulf Coast.
Now, this morning, Florida's governor, Jeb Bush, was asked about the unfortunate timing of these -- of these storms approaching the Florida coast. And he said, "You know, you would think a Hollywood screenwriter might have gotten hold of the scenario, with two hits, as well as a possible third hit." He was asked how the state's holding up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: It won't be easy, but we intend to do it. We have to.
We have emergency operation workers across the state that are frayed, given the 24/7, you know, context that they have been living in and working in. We are going to have some meetings at the Mercy Operations Center (ph) to see what additional relief we can get, support we can get from outside the state.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CANDIOTTI: As you know, Florida is still reeling from two hurricanes, Hurricane Charley back on August 13, Frances hitting just last Sunday. One on the west coast, one on the east coast. Who knows about this track. And as Governor Jeb Bush put it, in his words, "Welcome to our world" -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: And to think they call it the Sunshine State. OK. Susan Candiotti, thank you very much.
Orelon Sidney is up in the weather center. I don't think she has left there for about three weeks now, pretty much.
Orelon, this storm -- do us a favor, if you could just give us a quick comparison. I know it's early on, but compare it to the other two we've seen. Much bigger, much stronger, or what?
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, it's similar in strength, actually, to Charley at one point. And even Frances had pressure down to 900 -- I think 937 millibars. But this one is stronger than either one of those as far as pressure is concerned.
The current pressure is 923 millibars. And that's what we meteorologists use to give you an idea of how intense the storm is.
The pressure, of course, dropping. The wind speed goes up. So the lower the pressure the higher the wind speed. And this, indeed, has higher wind speeds than either Charley or Frances.
Winds are up to 160 miles an hour. So really, in a way, no comparison here, especially if it manages to hold itself together over the near term.
A Category 5, winds 160 right now, moving to the west-northwest at 15, 360 miles southeast of Kingston. This is the 2:00 p.m. advisory from the hurricane center.
You can see where it currently ranks with 923 millibars. It's just under the strength of Andrew at landfall. Now, we don't know if it's going to continue that strength, but we do know that Jamaica definitely has some problems over the next 24 hours.
In fact, it is supposed to make landfall in 24 hours. Hurricane warning is in effect there.
As we take a look a little bit further out now, we start off tomorrow with it moving through Jamaica, probably fluctuating between Category 4 and 5, up to the point of making impact on Cuba. And then the forecast track becomes really dicey.
Look at how wide it gets all the way from the central Gulf of Mexico back to the Bahamas, looking for a potential landfall in Florida. But remember, there's a big area of possibility. If you live anywhere along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, up the Eastern Seaboard, I'd say, to about Charleston, prepare for the potential of this storm heading in your direction -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Orelon Sidney, thank you very much -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Turning now to presidential politics. All four candidates are vying for votes out on the campaign trail today.
President Bush is in Pennsylvania. Democrat John Kerry is in Iowa. Vice President Dick Cheney is in Ohio. And Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, is in New Hampshire.
Bush spoke about economic recovery and opportunities in Pennsylvania earlier today. The race is close in this battleground state. A new CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll has the president and John Kerry in a dead heat.
Meanwhile, the president is facing another round of attacks of his National Guard service during the 1970s. There are new ads that question his stint in Alabama.
Now the man who says he helped the president and others avoid active duty in Vietnam is going on camera. Former Texas Lieutenant Governor Ben Barnes spoke on CBS's "60 Minutes."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BEN BARNES, FMR. TEXAS LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: I was a young, ambitious politician, doing what I thought was acceptable, that was important to make friends. And I recommended a lot of people for the -- for the National Guard during the Vietnam era as speaker of the House and as lieutenant governor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And you recommended George W. Bush?
BARNES: Yes, I did. I would describe it as preferential treatment.
There were hundreds of names on the list of people wanting to get in the Air National Guard or the Army National Guard. I think that would have been a preference to anybody that didn't want to go to Vietnam, that didn't want to leave.
We had a lot of young men that left and went to Canada in the '60s and fled this country. But those that could get in the Reserves or those that could get in the National Guard, chances are they would not have to go to Vietnam.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: So will the debate over the president's National Guard service impact your vote? E-mail your thoughts to livefrom@cnn.com. We'll air some of your e-mails next hour.
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is seeking support in the battleground state of Iowa. He criticized the president's health care plan to voters in Des Moines. Kerry says that Bush failed to hold down health care costs during his four years in office. Kerry's criticism comes the same day a study finds a double-digit increase in insurance premiums for the fourth year in a row.
O'BRIEN: Now to the war in Iraq. Diplomatic efforts are reported under way to secure the relief of two female Italian aide workers kidnapped on Tuesday. An Italian envoy is in the Middle East for those talks.
The women were taken from their offices in Baghdad. It's still unclear who took them, however.
Meanwhile, a U.S. strike against militants in the Sunni stronghold of Fallujah to tell you about. CNN's Diana Muriel has that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: U.S. air strikes continuing in Fallujah on Wednesday into Thursday. The latest in the series of air strikes that have been mounted by U.S. forces from a base outside of the city.
The U.S. forces telling CNN that the strikes have mounted as a result of intelligence gathered that there were insurgents operating in specific targeted locations. One of the targets, a house in a residential area.
The house was destroyed, and three others in the immediate vicinity were also badly damaged. According to the Ministry of Health here in Baghdad, there were four children killed in the explosion. Seven were wounded. Three women and three men were killed, and four women and four men were wounded in the blast, as well.
The U.S. military say that they were -- that they had intelligence that insurgents were operating from that area, and that they regret the loss of civilian life. However, they say that foreign fighters will find no foothold in Fallujah. A determination, it seems, from the U.S. to continue with these long-range air strikes on these -- these particular targets.
The people who were helping to clear the wreckage, looking for survivors, were very subdued on Thursday morning as they surveyed the scene. They are angry, not only at the Americans, but also at the way in which the insurgents appear to be using residential districts of Fallujah as a form of human shield.
There have been negotiations in the city amongst the leaders of the community there to try and get the insurgents to move their operations away from the residential district to two industrial areas in another part of the city. This strategy has so far failed. U.S. forces also saying that insurgents are operating in these residential areas, and although they regret the loss of civilian life, they will continue to target them.
Diana Muriel, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, whether you think he did his duty or shirked it, does debate over the president's National Guard service matter to you? E-mail us. We'll read them, straight ahead.
Accident or self-defense? Find out what happens when you try to shoot the wrong puppy. That's right, shooting a puppy. Can you believe that? Animals fight back when LIVE FROM returns.
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O'BRIEN: In a clean room in the Utah desert right now, NASA engineers and scientists are combing through the wreckage of the Genesis space capsule today, trying to find out what went wrong. Perhaps, more important, trying to salvage a little bit of science out of it.
The $264 million craft augured into the desert yesterday. You saw it live here on CNN. All this as NASA's administrator Sean O'Keefe faced Congress to discuss the NASA budget, which is another matter entirely.
Sean O'Keefe joins us now live from Washington with more on the budget, Genesis, and how the hurricane cleanup is going at the Cape.
Good to have you with us, sir.
SEAN O'KEEFE, NASA ADMINISTRATOR: Well, thanks, Miles. Nice to be with you.
O'BRIEN: All right. First of all, what indications are you getting from your team there in Utah as to the possibility of recovering some degree of science out of this?
We should remind our viewers that they were so concerned about the fragility of these wafers containing pieces of the solar wind, that they didn't even want to have it land by parachute. Instead, it dropped in at 193 miles an hour.
O'KEEFE: Well, indeed. You put your finger right to it, Miles.
The whole point of the exercise here is to have a sample return from these solar winds that the Genesis spacecraft collected. And if we can recover that science package, that's the goal of the whole exercise here.
It's an inelegant landing, no doubt about it. It was really a very, very difficult, less than ideal condition of recovery of the spacecraft. But if we can get the science returned from it, it's still a success. And we're still going to be looking forward to that.
So that's not yet determined. We'll see what the analysts all come back with here in the very short hours and days ahead to determine exactly what can be recoverable. I'm still hopeful.
O'BRIEN: It wasn't just the fragility of the wafers which captured these, really records of the formation of our solar system. It was also the fact they had to be pure, kept in a clean room, not exposed to the atmosphere. And obviously that has occurred, the wafers have been exposed. What science can be derived out of it, if it has been sort of tainted by Earth's atmosphere.
O'KEEFE: Well, it depends. There are some aspects of it that may have been tainted, other parts that may not have been damaged at all.
What really struck the engineers on site was how, given the fact it came in at almost 200 miles an hour and struck the surface in the manner that it did, it still withstood an awful lot of that incredible impact. So it's a testimony of how rugged this piece of machinery is.
We'll see how much is recoverable. I wouldn't want to speculate yet on what parts are or not.
O'BRIEN: All right. We're only 26 hours out from this occurrence. A lot of speculation that maybe there might have been a dead battery or faulty timer or an accelerometer, any number of things that could have gone wrong. Do have you any insights for us on that?
O'KEEFE: No. We've got an investigation team working it right now. And we'll come to some solutions here, I think, pretty quickly.
But the primary objective is to understand what went wrong. It's clear that the chute did deploy but did not engage in the manner it was supposed to. And that has been tested, you know, lots and lots of times and never had a problem like this. So we'll have to see exactly what it was that caused it.
O'BRIEN: All right -- $264 million mission. In the grand scheme of space missions, that's not an expensive mission, you know, when you consider a shuttle flight as two or three times more, a single shuttle flight. Nevertheless, what do you say to taxpayers who say, "What did I get for my money on this one?"
O'KEEFE: This is a really risky business. It really is. I mean, every single day we're trying to do something that typically has not been done by anybody before.
And when it's triumphant and when it's a success, it's a big success. When it's a failure, it's also a real setback. There's no doubt about it.
But in this case, again, we're not prepared to write this off. There is -- you know, again, if the outcome is still successful for the science package, that was the point. How it comes in and what the return looked like, however inelegant, was not the point of the whole mission in the first place. We'll see.
O'BRIEN: All right. The cost -- the cost of bringing the shuttle back on line, return to flight, while this is happening, almost simultaneously you were testifying to Congress that it's going to cost about $2.2 billion to get the shuttle safe and ready to fly again. The current date is March. But, nevertheless, that would be 10 Genesis missions. That's a lot of money.
Why is it costing so much? What are the big holdups? And what are the big concerns at this juncture?
O'KEEFE: Well, part of it is not necessarily a one-time only cost. This is sustaining expenses in order to establish the strength of the engineering, the kind of team that the Columbia accident investigation board recommended to beef up the inspections to be sure we do this right.
The other part is front-loading some of the expenses. What we're doing right now that all the shuttle orbiters are grounded is we are doing major modifications on all three of them.
We are typically doing what would have otherwise taken us over five years in sequence of one orbiter at a time. We're doing all three of them simultaneously. So this isn't so much an increase in cost, as much as it is a confinement and front-loading of those costs right now in order to assure that we use this time when the shuttle is grounded to the best, most efficient way possible.
O'BRIEN: All right. And a quick final thought. We are just about out of time.
But just -- we have seen the damage, heard about the damage at the Cape because of the hurricane. Do you have any inkling as to how much that might set back your efforts, returning the shuttle to flight at this point?
O'KEEFE: Not quite yet. I think so far we really dodged some significant problems here in the sense that all three of the orbiters, the Atlantis, the Endeavor and Discovery, are in great shape.
The shuttle hardware is in good shape. The space station components to be launched all were undamaged. We had some significant facility, building damage that we've got to assess. But in terms of what that will do, in terms of return to flight at this juncture, is a little early to tell. But there's no showstoppers we can see here.
O'BRIEN: All right. Sean O'Keefe, NASA administrator. Thanks for your time.
O'KEEFE: Good to be with you, Miles. Thank you.
O'BRIEN: All right -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, this just coming in to CNN. Apparently a videotape has surfaced with Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al- Zawahiri, making a statement. We're looking at it right now.
Our Nic Robertson working that story. He's going to join us right after the break.
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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
PHILLIPS: And this just coming in to CNN. Apparently, a videotape has surfaced. The voice and actually the pictures of Osama bin Laden's deputy, let's get right to it. Our Nic Robertson has been briefed on the tape.
What do you know?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, first of all, this is interesting because it's the first time we are seeing on tape a video and audio message together. It's coming very close to September the 11th. Last year they released -- al Qaeda released a videotape, but the audio was a separate audio transcript. The same year before.
Now we're seeing Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two to Osama bin Laden, appearing on the tape. It has been released and played by Al- Jazeera, the Gulf broadcaster. But at the moment, the audio clip, the portion that they've released so far, deals with Afghanistan.
Ayman al-Zawahiri says that U.S. forces are on the run essentially in southern and eastern Afghanistan, that what he describes as the Mujahadin are in control in south and eastern Afghanistan.
There may be other information yet on this tape, but so far that is what has been played out. That's what Al-Jazeera has. But it is coming, again, very close to the anniversary of September 11th.
This is very typical for al Qaeda. And now they have got pictures and sound together. And Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's number two.
PHILLIPS: All right. How do we know about the timing? Can we confirm that this was a tape that was made recently?
ROBERTSON: We don't know. At this stage, it just too early to tell.
What we will look for when we hear more of the tape, are there any time references, does he make any reference to any recent events? That will give us clues to when it was recorded.
I think perhaps one of the other interesting things about this tape is that Ayman al-Zawahiri, compared to the last time we saw him, which was a year ago on a videotape released on al Qaeda, he has aged, he has aged considerably. This, again, an indication of perhaps the conditions that he and maybe Osama bin Laden, with him, are living under.
PHILLIPS: Do you know if he's mentioned anything about U.S. troops in Afghanistan or like? Does he mention Iraq at all?
ROBERTSON: So far only Afghanistan. He says that the U.S. troops there are essentially on the run, that they are afraid to come out of their bases.
What he describes are the Mujahadin -- now, this may a reference to the Taliban, to the Pashtun anti-Afghan government, tribal elements inside that south and eastern portion of Afghanistan. But he describes it as the Mujahadin. And they are in control of that area.
Now, at this time, U.S. troops are there. They go out on patrol. There are governments put in place in the south and eastern of Afghanistan, local governments that have been put in place by the central Afghan government. So the claim doesn't seem to bear witness to what is happening on the ground. But certainly, there has been an upsurge and a gathering, if one talks to security officials in Afghanistan, a gathering and an upsurge in the capability of those Mujahadin fighters in that area that he describes.
PHILLIPS: Aren't there supposed to be elections going on right now in Afghanistan?
ROBERTSON: The beginning of October there are elections expected. U.N. officials involved in those elections have expressed concerns about how the elections will be carried out, specifically in that south and eastern area of Afghanistan.
It does tend to be the area that is less stable. But this claim from Ayman al-Zawahiri, at this stage, certainly doesn't seem to bear up to the facts on the ground.
PHILLIPS: All right. So at this point, as you translate -- and you're just getting this tape in -- nothing about another 9/11 or another attack as we approach, of course, the third anniversary of 9/11?
ROBERTSON: No threats. But absolutely the symbolism there of al Qaeda choosing -- it appears choosing to release the tape at this time, so close to the anniversary.
PHILLIPS: Sure. All right. Our Nic Robertson. Thanks so much.
Once again, you are looking at video right now of the tape that we just got in. You're looking at Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al- Zawahiri, as you know, the number two under Osama bin Laden, talking about taking control of much of Afghanistan and driving U.S. forces out.
Nic, we haven't had any response from the U.S. government on this yet, have we?
ROBERTSON: To my knowledge, we haven't. Oftentimes, when it's been audiotaped, there's an analysis done on whether or not this person who is claimed to be Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri is speaking.
Again, this time video, video and audio together, it very much looks like Ayman al-Zawahiri. That part doesn't seem to be in question that it was him. Just when it was recorded and maybe, perhaps, where again. The intelligence community is going to look at this, what clues can they ascertain to where Zawahiri may be hiding.
PHILLIPS: All right. I know you are working this. Come back when have you more for us, OK? Nic Robertson, thanks -- Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Oil prices are up, which means the stock market is down. Fred Katayama is watching it for us.
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