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Al Qaeda Videotape Released; Hurricane Ivan Approaches Jamaica

Aired September 09, 2004 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: In the news now, al Qaeda is claiming a comeback in Afghanistan. That videotape message just aired on the Arab network Al-Jazeera. The message was delivered by Osama bin Laden's right-hand man, Ayman al-Zawahri. In state, the mujahedeen are now in control of much of Afghanistan and have driven U.S. forces into the trenches, it says. We'll have much more on this in just a moment.
The most devastating in a decade. Hurricane Ivan roars across the eastern Caribbean aiming now for Jamaica. The menacing storm has strengthened to a Category 5, the strongest possible. And forecasters say it could hit the Florida Keys by Monday. More on that in a moment as well.

Terror in Indonesia. Police say a car bomb caused all of this you see here, exploding just outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta. At least eight are dead, 170 others wounded. The impact was heard six miles away. Damaged buildings are seen for blocks.

And massive evacuations in Los Angeles to tell you about. But don't worry. It was really just a drill to test the readiness of those who work in downtown L.A. When the alarm was given, nearly 20,000 people rushed out of city hall, politics headquarters and several civic center buildings.

We begin this hour with a voice from the underground. Ayman al- Zawahri, right-hand man to Osama bin Laden, claiming U.S. troops are on the ropes in Afghanistan. The Egyptian-born doctor appears in a video clip on the Arab network Al-Jazeera, though the tape's date of origin, obviously, its location are a mystery.

CNN's Nic Robertson, who has covered al Qaeda extensively, has been watching the tape, looking at the translations, has some insights for us.

We should remind folks there was a time when it was thought that Ayman al-Zawahri was corned in the mountains of Afghanistan by U.S. forces. Some question as to whether he was dead. It appears that is not the case.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It appears this is not the case.

There are several things that are interesting. No. 1, we're very, very close to the anniversary of September 11. Al Qaeda has a tradition over the last few years of releasing video messages, videotapes annually around September 11. They release audio messages in between, but this is a special event for them.

What also makes this stand out is, this is an al Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, the No. 2 to Osama bin Laden, appearing on the tape delivering the message. That's the first time we've had that type of video-delivered message in 2 1/2 years. The headline on it, the mujahedeen, the holy warriors, as he calls them, are in control of the south and east of Afghanistan, that U.S. troops are hiding in their trenches, afraid to go out and face these holy warriors.

O'BRIEN: All right, so a fairly predictable type of message from al Qaeda. But the fact that we're seeing him on camera, I guess we could say is significant. Nevertheless, we don't know when it was recorded, right?

ROBERTSON: We don't know when it's recorded. We've only seen a portion of it so far. The Gulf broadcaster Al-Jazeera has only played a small percentage of the tape, we believe.

What is the real thrust of the message? We still don't know that. Could it be about Iraq? Could it be about other issues in the world at this time? But this focuses on Afghanistan. Also, having been there recently, I have to say, that's not the case, the image that he's portraying. The troops go out on daily patrols. They go into villages. Yes, they do face attack at certain times in some areas. But they are not hiding in their trenches. We have seen this for ourselves over the last few months.

O'BRIEN: Now, Al-Jazeera is promising to release I presume the full contents of this tape. It has been speculated in the past somehow these tapes are used by al Qaeda to communicate with cells. Is that a real concern, do you think?

ROBERTSON: It certainly used to be a concern. And I'm sure within the intelligence community, that exists.

What are the clues here? Well, he is wearing a white turban. There is an AK-47, an automatic weapon, standing in the background. In the past, people have said, look, there's Osama. He's delivering a message. There is a map. There is his weapon pointing at somewhere on the map. But there doesn't seem to be any real hard clues in this that we, you and I, can see, but knows? Perhaps al Qaeda has some coded message that they have already pre given to their troops.

But it appears much more that this is al Qaeda delivering their sort of annual big special, if you will, right around the anniversary of September 11. Clearly, this event is still very important to them and raising morale and flying the banner and saying, look, we're here. We haven't been captured.

O'BRIEN: It's got to be very frustrating for troops on the hunt for al Qaeda.

Anyway, Nic Robertson, thank you very much. Appreciate your insights -- Kyra.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, also in the war on terror, Pakistan's Air Force bombed a suspected al Qaeda training camp in a tribal region bordering Afghanistan. The area is believed to be a hideout for terrorists groups and a possible haven for Osama bin Laden. Pakistani officials say the camp was destroyed and at least 55 people were killed, none of them believed to be top members of al Qaeda.

And for a third straight day, U.S. forces target insurgents in Iraq with deadly results. Iraqi officials say that these are some of the civilians seen here caught in the crosshairs in Fallujah. U.S. warplanes bombed what were identified as militant targets. Later, U.S. officials acknowledged an unknown number of civilians were indeed killed.

O'BRIEN: The National Hurricane Center calls Hurricane Ivan extremely dangerous. It has damaged 90 percent of structures on Granada and is blamed for more than 12 deaths there. Jamaica and Cuba next in line for Ivan's wrath. And people in the Bahamas and Florida are urged to keep a close eye on this storm. Mandatory evacuations already have been issued for Florida's keys.

Current forecasts put Ivan near the Keys either Sunday or early Monday.

Neki Mohan of our Miami affiliate WPLG is on the scene in Jamaica.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NEKI MOHAN, WPLG REPORTER (voice-over): The shutters are going up. Jamaicans are gassing up. In the streets of Kingston, a mad rush to get ready for Ivan.

(on camera): I'm here in downtown Kingston at the grocery store. The store opened 15 minutes ago. People were lined up at the door waiting to get in to stock up.

MOHAN: Are you worried?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very much worried. We're in a state right now where we can't even take a Category 1 hurricane, much less a Category 5. It is very frightening. And we need to really prepare ourselves.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, God, we're terrified, because I heard that the country is basically going to be closed down at 12:00 today. And the government issued a warning that we should all make sure that if we are not prepared, we are prepared, because it's definitely coming.

MOHAN (voice-over): People here are preparing for the worst, memories fresh in most people's mind because of Gilbert in 1988. Ironically, Ivan comes almost on the 16-year anniversary.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I was living in Portland at that time. And all the roofs, everything went, flooded. The stores were broken into, the glasses, and all of that. Terrible, terrible. (END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Well, following all that terrible weather that is going on in parts of the country, specifically Florida, Orelon Sidney live from the Weather Center now.

What's the latest?

ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Thanks a lot, Kyra.

We do continue to watch our storm moving to west-northwest. It is still strong. The next update from the Hurricane Center is due in at 5:00 p.m. But this is the 2:00 update, winds still of 160 miles an hour with higher gusts moving to the west-northwest at 15 miles an hour. At that time, 360 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. And it just doesn't look like there's any way that Jamaica is going to avoid a hit.

We're looking at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow, the winds of about 155 miles an hour with much higher gusts, Category 4, then. We're looking at a storm that is so strong, a lot of times they don't maintain this force for very long, so they will fluctuate back and forth. And we expect to see that fluctuation between Category 4 and 5 as it heads towards Jamaica tomorrow.

Then, after it passes through Jamaica, it's headed towards Cuba. And there, we expect to run into maybe a little forecast problem here. We start to see it interact with land, run into some cooler waters and also get a little bit of sheer. As far as its direction is concerned, there's a wide zone of possibility extending from the Bahamas through the Southeastern United States and into the Central Gulf of Mexico.

So, even though there's a line here, this is just showing you the official current forecast, but also official is this zone of possibility. You should be prepared for the landfall of a major hurricane if you live anywhere in that area -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Orelon Sidney, thank you.

And we can't forget Frances, especially if you live in North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania or New York. The former hurricane is still fact of life. All those states report huge amounts of rain, 16 inches in parts of North Carolina, with the inevitable result. In New York City, the subway floods of yesterday receded today. But 10 counties in western North Carolina are still in states of emergency.

O'BRIEN: Let's turn it over to presidential politics now.

All four candidates are seeking votes out on the campaign trail today, President Bush in Pennsylvania, Democratic John Kerry, Vice President Cheney in Ohio. And Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, is in New Hampshire.

Mr. Bush spoke about economic recovery and opportunities in Colmar, Pennsylvania, earlier today. The race is close in that battleground state. A new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll has the president and John Kerry in a dead heat in the Keystone State.

Meanwhile, the president is facing another round of attacks about his National Guard service in the '70s. There are new ads that question his stint in Alabama. Now the man who says he helped the president and others avoid active duty in Vietnam is going on camera. Former Texas Lieutenant Governor Ben Barnes spoke on CBS' "60 Minutes."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "60 MINUTES")

BEN BARNES, FMR. TEXAS LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: I was a young, ambitious politician, doing what I thought was acceptable, that was important to make friends. And I recommended a lot of people for the -- for the National Guard during the Vietnam era as speaker of the House and as lieutenant governor.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And you recommended George W. Bush?

BARNES: Yes, I did. I would describe it as preferential treatment.

There were hundreds of names on the list of people wanting to get in the Air National Guard or the Army National Guard. I think that would have been a preference to anybody that didn't want to go to Vietnam, that didn't want to leave.

We had a lot of young men that left and went to Canada in the '60s and fled this country. But those that could get in the Reserves or those that could get in the National Guard, chances are they would not have to go to Vietnam.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: So, will the debate over the president's National Guard service impact your vote? We'll read some of your e-mail on that in a few minutes. Got my work cut out for me on that one.

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is seeking support in the battleground state of Iowa, as we just told you. He criticized the president's health care plan to voters in Des Moines. Kerry says Bush failed to hold down health care costs during his four years in office. Kerry's criticism comes the same day a study finds a double- digit increase in insurance premiums for the fourth year in a row.

PHILLIPS: Well, straight ahead, we'll honor the nation's more than 1,000 fallen troops in Iraq. You won't want to miss this piece by our Beth Nissen.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Russia is still mourning the deaths of more than 300 people following last week's siege of a school by terrorists. Most of the victims were children. Many others survived. And at least one of them, a little boy, is talking about this horrifying ordeal. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGY FARNIYEV, SIEGE SURVIVOR (through translator): They said, sit down and if you make any noise, we will kill 20 children. One of the terrorists had control of 20 children already. And they were killed. And that's why they came to kill us. They killed some adults and one little girl.

One of the bombs was right under me and then we moved. So when they started to shoot, this bomb went off, but it didn't do anything to me, not a scratch. From the gym, I managed to get out to the room where the teacher normally goes. Then I went to the dining room hall. And that's where a grenade went off and I was hit by shrapnel. I pulled a piece of shrapnel from the top of my arm. And then I went to the kitchen and I hid in the cupboard.

And, meanwhile, there was a lot of shooting and grenades and bombs going off all around. One of the women had explosives strapped to her stomach and held a pistol like that and another one of those belts that you keep money in. And there were explosives in that as well. I went into the cupboard limping because my knee was hurting. But I limped there. And it was there I pulled the shrapnel out of my arm and rinsed it off with water. But I didn't pull the shrapnel out of my knee.

MARINA FARNIYEV, GEORGY'S MOTHER (through translator): When we ran up, they started shooting. We just wanted to save our children, but the bandits started shooting. We were on the other side of the complex where all the people were waiting for the children. We wanted to rescue them, but they didn't let us through. But I'm so glad he was rescued eventually.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Well, every week, it seems we must report the deaths of American troops in Iraq. And this week, the number of Americans killed since the war began passed the 1,000 mark, a grim milestone that is so much more than just a number.

Our Beth Nissen looks at the high cost of war.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the language of the military, they are the fallen warriors, the 1,000 U.S. troops who have died in Operation Iraqi Freedom, more than 860 of them since May 1st of last year when major combat operations were declared at an end.

Combat continued in the streets and alleys of Baghdad, in the hot dust of Fallujah and Ramadi, in the cemetery of Najaf. Troops deaths peaked this spring, 50 in March, 134 in April the deadliest single month of the war, 81 in May.

How they died is not always clear in the Department of Defense releases or in the fog of war on the ground. At least 80 troops are listed simply as killed in enemy or hostile action. As many as one in five died the way soldiers have in every modern war, shot in firefights, on patrol, by snipers.

Another 125 were killed by rocket-propelled grenades, mortars. Almost double that number have been killed by one of this war's greatest threats, IEDs, improvised explosive devices, or homemade bombs. At least 237 U.S. troops have been killed by IEDs set along roads, thrown into vehicles, detonated on passing convoys.

Vehicles are dangerous places in Iraq even in the absence of enemy attack. At least 107 troops, just over ten percent of the war dead, were killed in motor vehicle accidents when their Humvees and Bradleys and trucks collided in dust storms, rolled over on Iraq's poor roads, went off road and tumbled into ravines and canals.

Helicopters, another vital means of transport and supply, are also a constant danger. Eighty-three U.S. troops have died when their helicopters were shot down or crashed, 17 on one day alone last November 15th when two Black Hawk helicopters collided over Mosul.

In this war, in any war, there are accidents, non-combat deaths. In Iraq, at least 30 U.S. troops have died in accidental shootings, often as they or their comrades cleaned their weapons. Some of these weapon discharges were not accidents.

The Pentagon has confirmed that at least 26 Operation Iraqi Freedom troops have committed suicide. Other deaths have been caused by the same kind of accidents that might befall a population of 137,000 anywhere.

At least 16 U.S. military personnel have drowned in Iraq, crossing or swimming in rivers and canals. Seven were electrocuted. Troops in Iraq have also died of illnesses that claim thousands of civilian lives each year. At least 13 have died of heart failure, others suffered strokes, died of acute leukemia, cancer.

Who were these 1,000 Americans in uniform? The great majority, more than 720 were in the Army, the 101st Airborne, 1st Armored Division, 1st Infantry Division.

Since April when the Marines replaced Army units in the explosive Al Anbar province, a growing number of the dead have been Marines. More than 240 have died in Iraq so far, 33 last month alone.

Every branch of the service has seen losses, the Navy, the Air Force, even the Coast Guard. Those fighting for the U.S. in Iraq and those who have died represent the American population in broad strokes.

African Americans accounted for an estimated 13 percent of the dead, Hispanics another 12 percent. Seventy percent of the war dead were Caucasian, white men. Only 22 of the military fatalities have been women, almost half of them killed when their convoys hit roadside bombs. The common denominator for most of these casualties is youth. Just over half of those killed in Iraq have been age 25 or younger. The youngest were 18, 19 years old. At least 77 were teenagers, the oldest 51, 55, 59.

An unprecedented number of regular enlistees and reservists in the all voluntary military are older in their 30s and 40s and married. The Defense Department does not release information on families but, according to the Associated Press and reports in obituaries in local newspapers, more than 400 of the troops killed in Iraq were married, a third had children, most of them young. At least 389 children under the age of 12 have lost a father and five have lost a mother in Iraq. The numbers say so much and so little.

One thousand American lives lost, 1,000 individuals who had middle names that someone proudly chose for them, who had pictures taken on the first day of Kindergarten and at high school graduation, who had plans for the future, to be a police officer or a college student or a dad for the third time who wanted to serve their country and did at such great price.

Beth Nissen, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: All right.

PHILLIPS: A lot of e-mails.

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: We have got a lot of e-mails. And I've been busy processing, as usual.

PHILLIPS: All right. I'll remind the viewers what the question is. Will the debate, right, will the debate over Bush's National Guard service in the '70s impact your vote in November?

O'BRIEN: We got a lot of e-mails. We appreciate them. As a matter of fact, over 1,000, and really evenly divided, evenly divided.

PHILLIPS: Wow, over 1,0001?

O'BRIEN: Gary Leonard has this: "This is just another example of how being rich or having a famous father provides an escape from duty. He did not follow his orders. And this should be explained to the people. If the statute of limitations has not expired, he should be court-martialed, just like any normal person would be."

Tough words from Gary.

All right, next one, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, Ruben from Florida: "Will W.'s lack of service sway my vote? No, just as my vote won't be swayed by the Kerry Vietnam controversy."

O'BRIEN: All right, so he's standing firm.

Now, here's another one: "If I were a Vietnam vet, I would be mad as hell. It's amazing the president can look any veteran in the eye. In my opinion, this proves that the president is comfortable with distorting the truth and postering for" -- posturing, I think is what he meant -- "for votes." That's from Diane Leslie.

PHILLIPS: I wish we could read all 1,000.

O'BRIEN: Yes.

PHILLIPS: Were we fair? Did we give enough of each one?

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: Let's do a quick one.

PHILLIPS: All right.

O'BRIEN: We're going to end with this one.

And this may sum up a lot of what you're thinking right here. "One word, enough."

PHILLIPS: Amen, Steve.

O'BRIEN: Steve Baxley in Jackson, Michigan.

And that's enough for us today. That wraps up a very busy Thursday edition of LIVE FROM.

PHILLIPS: That's right. We had a lot of stuff going on.

O'BRIEN: We did.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired September 9, 2004 - 15:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: In the news now, al Qaeda is claiming a comeback in Afghanistan. That videotape message just aired on the Arab network Al-Jazeera. The message was delivered by Osama bin Laden's right-hand man, Ayman al-Zawahri. In state, the mujahedeen are now in control of much of Afghanistan and have driven U.S. forces into the trenches, it says. We'll have much more on this in just a moment.
The most devastating in a decade. Hurricane Ivan roars across the eastern Caribbean aiming now for Jamaica. The menacing storm has strengthened to a Category 5, the strongest possible. And forecasters say it could hit the Florida Keys by Monday. More on that in a moment as well.

Terror in Indonesia. Police say a car bomb caused all of this you see here, exploding just outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta. At least eight are dead, 170 others wounded. The impact was heard six miles away. Damaged buildings are seen for blocks.

And massive evacuations in Los Angeles to tell you about. But don't worry. It was really just a drill to test the readiness of those who work in downtown L.A. When the alarm was given, nearly 20,000 people rushed out of city hall, politics headquarters and several civic center buildings.

We begin this hour with a voice from the underground. Ayman al- Zawahri, right-hand man to Osama bin Laden, claiming U.S. troops are on the ropes in Afghanistan. The Egyptian-born doctor appears in a video clip on the Arab network Al-Jazeera, though the tape's date of origin, obviously, its location are a mystery.

CNN's Nic Robertson, who has covered al Qaeda extensively, has been watching the tape, looking at the translations, has some insights for us.

We should remind folks there was a time when it was thought that Ayman al-Zawahri was corned in the mountains of Afghanistan by U.S. forces. Some question as to whether he was dead. It appears that is not the case.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It appears this is not the case.

There are several things that are interesting. No. 1, we're very, very close to the anniversary of September 11. Al Qaeda has a tradition over the last few years of releasing video messages, videotapes annually around September 11. They release audio messages in between, but this is a special event for them.

What also makes this stand out is, this is an al Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, the No. 2 to Osama bin Laden, appearing on the tape delivering the message. That's the first time we've had that type of video-delivered message in 2 1/2 years. The headline on it, the mujahedeen, the holy warriors, as he calls them, are in control of the south and east of Afghanistan, that U.S. troops are hiding in their trenches, afraid to go out and face these holy warriors.

O'BRIEN: All right, so a fairly predictable type of message from al Qaeda. But the fact that we're seeing him on camera, I guess we could say is significant. Nevertheless, we don't know when it was recorded, right?

ROBERTSON: We don't know when it's recorded. We've only seen a portion of it so far. The Gulf broadcaster Al-Jazeera has only played a small percentage of the tape, we believe.

What is the real thrust of the message? We still don't know that. Could it be about Iraq? Could it be about other issues in the world at this time? But this focuses on Afghanistan. Also, having been there recently, I have to say, that's not the case, the image that he's portraying. The troops go out on daily patrols. They go into villages. Yes, they do face attack at certain times in some areas. But they are not hiding in their trenches. We have seen this for ourselves over the last few months.

O'BRIEN: Now, Al-Jazeera is promising to release I presume the full contents of this tape. It has been speculated in the past somehow these tapes are used by al Qaeda to communicate with cells. Is that a real concern, do you think?

ROBERTSON: It certainly used to be a concern. And I'm sure within the intelligence community, that exists.

What are the clues here? Well, he is wearing a white turban. There is an AK-47, an automatic weapon, standing in the background. In the past, people have said, look, there's Osama. He's delivering a message. There is a map. There is his weapon pointing at somewhere on the map. But there doesn't seem to be any real hard clues in this that we, you and I, can see, but knows? Perhaps al Qaeda has some coded message that they have already pre given to their troops.

But it appears much more that this is al Qaeda delivering their sort of annual big special, if you will, right around the anniversary of September 11. Clearly, this event is still very important to them and raising morale and flying the banner and saying, look, we're here. We haven't been captured.

O'BRIEN: It's got to be very frustrating for troops on the hunt for al Qaeda.

Anyway, Nic Robertson, thank you very much. Appreciate your insights -- Kyra.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, also in the war on terror, Pakistan's Air Force bombed a suspected al Qaeda training camp in a tribal region bordering Afghanistan. The area is believed to be a hideout for terrorists groups and a possible haven for Osama bin Laden. Pakistani officials say the camp was destroyed and at least 55 people were killed, none of them believed to be top members of al Qaeda.

And for a third straight day, U.S. forces target insurgents in Iraq with deadly results. Iraqi officials say that these are some of the civilians seen here caught in the crosshairs in Fallujah. U.S. warplanes bombed what were identified as militant targets. Later, U.S. officials acknowledged an unknown number of civilians were indeed killed.

O'BRIEN: The National Hurricane Center calls Hurricane Ivan extremely dangerous. It has damaged 90 percent of structures on Granada and is blamed for more than 12 deaths there. Jamaica and Cuba next in line for Ivan's wrath. And people in the Bahamas and Florida are urged to keep a close eye on this storm. Mandatory evacuations already have been issued for Florida's keys.

Current forecasts put Ivan near the Keys either Sunday or early Monday.

Neki Mohan of our Miami affiliate WPLG is on the scene in Jamaica.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NEKI MOHAN, WPLG REPORTER (voice-over): The shutters are going up. Jamaicans are gassing up. In the streets of Kingston, a mad rush to get ready for Ivan.

(on camera): I'm here in downtown Kingston at the grocery store. The store opened 15 minutes ago. People were lined up at the door waiting to get in to stock up.

MOHAN: Are you worried?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very much worried. We're in a state right now where we can't even take a Category 1 hurricane, much less a Category 5. It is very frightening. And we need to really prepare ourselves.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, God, we're terrified, because I heard that the country is basically going to be closed down at 12:00 today. And the government issued a warning that we should all make sure that if we are not prepared, we are prepared, because it's definitely coming.

MOHAN (voice-over): People here are preparing for the worst, memories fresh in most people's mind because of Gilbert in 1988. Ironically, Ivan comes almost on the 16-year anniversary.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I was living in Portland at that time. And all the roofs, everything went, flooded. The stores were broken into, the glasses, and all of that. Terrible, terrible. (END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Well, following all that terrible weather that is going on in parts of the country, specifically Florida, Orelon Sidney live from the Weather Center now.

What's the latest?

ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Thanks a lot, Kyra.

We do continue to watch our storm moving to west-northwest. It is still strong. The next update from the Hurricane Center is due in at 5:00 p.m. But this is the 2:00 update, winds still of 160 miles an hour with higher gusts moving to the west-northwest at 15 miles an hour. At that time, 360 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. And it just doesn't look like there's any way that Jamaica is going to avoid a hit.

We're looking at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow, the winds of about 155 miles an hour with much higher gusts, Category 4, then. We're looking at a storm that is so strong, a lot of times they don't maintain this force for very long, so they will fluctuate back and forth. And we expect to see that fluctuation between Category 4 and 5 as it heads towards Jamaica tomorrow.

Then, after it passes through Jamaica, it's headed towards Cuba. And there, we expect to run into maybe a little forecast problem here. We start to see it interact with land, run into some cooler waters and also get a little bit of sheer. As far as its direction is concerned, there's a wide zone of possibility extending from the Bahamas through the Southeastern United States and into the Central Gulf of Mexico.

So, even though there's a line here, this is just showing you the official current forecast, but also official is this zone of possibility. You should be prepared for the landfall of a major hurricane if you live anywhere in that area -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Orelon Sidney, thank you.

And we can't forget Frances, especially if you live in North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania or New York. The former hurricane is still fact of life. All those states report huge amounts of rain, 16 inches in parts of North Carolina, with the inevitable result. In New York City, the subway floods of yesterday receded today. But 10 counties in western North Carolina are still in states of emergency.

O'BRIEN: Let's turn it over to presidential politics now.

All four candidates are seeking votes out on the campaign trail today, President Bush in Pennsylvania, Democratic John Kerry, Vice President Cheney in Ohio. And Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, is in New Hampshire.

Mr. Bush spoke about economic recovery and opportunities in Colmar, Pennsylvania, earlier today. The race is close in that battleground state. A new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll has the president and John Kerry in a dead heat in the Keystone State.

Meanwhile, the president is facing another round of attacks about his National Guard service in the '70s. There are new ads that question his stint in Alabama. Now the man who says he helped the president and others avoid active duty in Vietnam is going on camera. Former Texas Lieutenant Governor Ben Barnes spoke on CBS' "60 Minutes."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "60 MINUTES")

BEN BARNES, FMR. TEXAS LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: I was a young, ambitious politician, doing what I thought was acceptable, that was important to make friends. And I recommended a lot of people for the -- for the National Guard during the Vietnam era as speaker of the House and as lieutenant governor.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And you recommended George W. Bush?

BARNES: Yes, I did. I would describe it as preferential treatment.

There were hundreds of names on the list of people wanting to get in the Air National Guard or the Army National Guard. I think that would have been a preference to anybody that didn't want to go to Vietnam, that didn't want to leave.

We had a lot of young men that left and went to Canada in the '60s and fled this country. But those that could get in the Reserves or those that could get in the National Guard, chances are they would not have to go to Vietnam.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: So, will the debate over the president's National Guard service impact your vote? We'll read some of your e-mail on that in a few minutes. Got my work cut out for me on that one.

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is seeking support in the battleground state of Iowa, as we just told you. He criticized the president's health care plan to voters in Des Moines. Kerry says Bush failed to hold down health care costs during his four years in office. Kerry's criticism comes the same day a study finds a double- digit increase in insurance premiums for the fourth year in a row.

PHILLIPS: Well, straight ahead, we'll honor the nation's more than 1,000 fallen troops in Iraq. You won't want to miss this piece by our Beth Nissen.

Stay with us.

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O'BRIEN: Russia is still mourning the deaths of more than 300 people following last week's siege of a school by terrorists. Most of the victims were children. Many others survived. And at least one of them, a little boy, is talking about this horrifying ordeal. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGY FARNIYEV, SIEGE SURVIVOR (through translator): They said, sit down and if you make any noise, we will kill 20 children. One of the terrorists had control of 20 children already. And they were killed. And that's why they came to kill us. They killed some adults and one little girl.

One of the bombs was right under me and then we moved. So when they started to shoot, this bomb went off, but it didn't do anything to me, not a scratch. From the gym, I managed to get out to the room where the teacher normally goes. Then I went to the dining room hall. And that's where a grenade went off and I was hit by shrapnel. I pulled a piece of shrapnel from the top of my arm. And then I went to the kitchen and I hid in the cupboard.

And, meanwhile, there was a lot of shooting and grenades and bombs going off all around. One of the women had explosives strapped to her stomach and held a pistol like that and another one of those belts that you keep money in. And there were explosives in that as well. I went into the cupboard limping because my knee was hurting. But I limped there. And it was there I pulled the shrapnel out of my arm and rinsed it off with water. But I didn't pull the shrapnel out of my knee.

MARINA FARNIYEV, GEORGY'S MOTHER (through translator): When we ran up, they started shooting. We just wanted to save our children, but the bandits started shooting. We were on the other side of the complex where all the people were waiting for the children. We wanted to rescue them, but they didn't let us through. But I'm so glad he was rescued eventually.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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PHILLIPS: Well, every week, it seems we must report the deaths of American troops in Iraq. And this week, the number of Americans killed since the war began passed the 1,000 mark, a grim milestone that is so much more than just a number.

Our Beth Nissen looks at the high cost of war.

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BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the language of the military, they are the fallen warriors, the 1,000 U.S. troops who have died in Operation Iraqi Freedom, more than 860 of them since May 1st of last year when major combat operations were declared at an end.

Combat continued in the streets and alleys of Baghdad, in the hot dust of Fallujah and Ramadi, in the cemetery of Najaf. Troops deaths peaked this spring, 50 in March, 134 in April the deadliest single month of the war, 81 in May.

How they died is not always clear in the Department of Defense releases or in the fog of war on the ground. At least 80 troops are listed simply as killed in enemy or hostile action. As many as one in five died the way soldiers have in every modern war, shot in firefights, on patrol, by snipers.

Another 125 were killed by rocket-propelled grenades, mortars. Almost double that number have been killed by one of this war's greatest threats, IEDs, improvised explosive devices, or homemade bombs. At least 237 U.S. troops have been killed by IEDs set along roads, thrown into vehicles, detonated on passing convoys.

Vehicles are dangerous places in Iraq even in the absence of enemy attack. At least 107 troops, just over ten percent of the war dead, were killed in motor vehicle accidents when their Humvees and Bradleys and trucks collided in dust storms, rolled over on Iraq's poor roads, went off road and tumbled into ravines and canals.

Helicopters, another vital means of transport and supply, are also a constant danger. Eighty-three U.S. troops have died when their helicopters were shot down or crashed, 17 on one day alone last November 15th when two Black Hawk helicopters collided over Mosul.

In this war, in any war, there are accidents, non-combat deaths. In Iraq, at least 30 U.S. troops have died in accidental shootings, often as they or their comrades cleaned their weapons. Some of these weapon discharges were not accidents.

The Pentagon has confirmed that at least 26 Operation Iraqi Freedom troops have committed suicide. Other deaths have been caused by the same kind of accidents that might befall a population of 137,000 anywhere.

At least 16 U.S. military personnel have drowned in Iraq, crossing or swimming in rivers and canals. Seven were electrocuted. Troops in Iraq have also died of illnesses that claim thousands of civilian lives each year. At least 13 have died of heart failure, others suffered strokes, died of acute leukemia, cancer.

Who were these 1,000 Americans in uniform? The great majority, more than 720 were in the Army, the 101st Airborne, 1st Armored Division, 1st Infantry Division.

Since April when the Marines replaced Army units in the explosive Al Anbar province, a growing number of the dead have been Marines. More than 240 have died in Iraq so far, 33 last month alone.

Every branch of the service has seen losses, the Navy, the Air Force, even the Coast Guard. Those fighting for the U.S. in Iraq and those who have died represent the American population in broad strokes.

African Americans accounted for an estimated 13 percent of the dead, Hispanics another 12 percent. Seventy percent of the war dead were Caucasian, white men. Only 22 of the military fatalities have been women, almost half of them killed when their convoys hit roadside bombs. The common denominator for most of these casualties is youth. Just over half of those killed in Iraq have been age 25 or younger. The youngest were 18, 19 years old. At least 77 were teenagers, the oldest 51, 55, 59.

An unprecedented number of regular enlistees and reservists in the all voluntary military are older in their 30s and 40s and married. The Defense Department does not release information on families but, according to the Associated Press and reports in obituaries in local newspapers, more than 400 of the troops killed in Iraq were married, a third had children, most of them young. At least 389 children under the age of 12 have lost a father and five have lost a mother in Iraq. The numbers say so much and so little.

One thousand American lives lost, 1,000 individuals who had middle names that someone proudly chose for them, who had pictures taken on the first day of Kindergarten and at high school graduation, who had plans for the future, to be a police officer or a college student or a dad for the third time who wanted to serve their country and did at such great price.

Beth Nissen, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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O'BRIEN: All right.

PHILLIPS: A lot of e-mails.

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: We have got a lot of e-mails. And I've been busy processing, as usual.

PHILLIPS: All right. I'll remind the viewers what the question is. Will the debate, right, will the debate over Bush's National Guard service in the '70s impact your vote in November?

O'BRIEN: We got a lot of e-mails. We appreciate them. As a matter of fact, over 1,000, and really evenly divided, evenly divided.

PHILLIPS: Wow, over 1,0001?

O'BRIEN: Gary Leonard has this: "This is just another example of how being rich or having a famous father provides an escape from duty. He did not follow his orders. And this should be explained to the people. If the statute of limitations has not expired, he should be court-martialed, just like any normal person would be."

Tough words from Gary.

All right, next one, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, Ruben from Florida: "Will W.'s lack of service sway my vote? No, just as my vote won't be swayed by the Kerry Vietnam controversy."

O'BRIEN: All right, so he's standing firm.

Now, here's another one: "If I were a Vietnam vet, I would be mad as hell. It's amazing the president can look any veteran in the eye. In my opinion, this proves that the president is comfortable with distorting the truth and postering for" -- posturing, I think is what he meant -- "for votes." That's from Diane Leslie.

PHILLIPS: I wish we could read all 1,000.

O'BRIEN: Yes.

PHILLIPS: Were we fair? Did we give enough of each one?

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: Let's do a quick one.

PHILLIPS: All right.

O'BRIEN: We're going to end with this one.

And this may sum up a lot of what you're thinking right here. "One word, enough."

PHILLIPS: Amen, Steve.

O'BRIEN: Steve Baxley in Jackson, Michigan.

And that's enough for us today. That wraps up a very busy Thursday edition of LIVE FROM.

PHILLIPS: That's right. We had a lot of stuff going on.

O'BRIEN: We did.

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