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Ivan Leaves Snakes, Other Animals in its Wake; Car Bomb Kills at Least Eight Iraqis; A Tale of Two Polls

Aired September 17, 2004 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: In Gulf Shores, Alabama, they've got the headaches and heartbreak you'd expect in a place where a Category 3 hurricane made landfall. And they've also got some alligators they can't quite account for. Our account comes now from CNN's Gary Tuchman and the search for Chuckie.
Hey there, Gary.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Betty, hello to you.

And that's right, Chuckie the alligator a very famous tourist sight here in Gulf Shores, Alabama, at the zoo. He's 12 feet long, he weighs between 1,000 and 1,200 pounds. He is a man-eating alligator. He has been missing since this hurricane passed through.

We actually spotted him yesterday. Our photographer got a shot of this huge alligator swimming in the flooded waters right next to the zoo.

They had hoped to lure the alligator with bait, with dead chickens, chickens that had been killed in the hurricane, tied to a fishing line. They hoped the alligator was going to swim to the chickens and then they would lasso the alligator around the neck. They weren't able to get the alligator to bite, so to speak.

The waters near the zoo have now receded, but the alligator is still missing. And he could be anywhere.

Now, we can tell you, on a more serious vain, right now the skies are completely blue. There is not a cloud in the sky. An amazing contrast to almost precisely 36 hours ago when the eye of this hurricane crossed right through here in Gulf Shores with its 110-mile- an-hour gusts that we experienced here.

This island, Gulf Shore is a barrier island, about an hour to the southeast of Mobile, Alabama, is still closed to people who live here and will be closed for another 48 hours. But we were able to get a tour a short time ago of the beach front to give you an idea of what kind of damage they experienced. And the damage is truly immense.

There are many stores and businesses that have lost all their walls. Amazingly, you still see merchandise neatly put on the shelves, but the walls of the stores are gone.

Homes that were on stilts on the beach now completely collapsed. Some homes on stilts are still there, but other ones are gone. It was very arbitrary.

And then the sand. Tons of sand pushed from the beach into the streets. You don't even recognize the streets anymore.

Now, they are very fortunate here in Baldwin County, Alabama, where the eye crossed through. It appears there were no serious injuries, no casualties.

Obviously, this has been a deadly storm in other parts of the United States. They are very grateful here for the lack of casualties, but they have a lot of damage to clean up. And so far, people here are not allowed to come to their homes to see it.

Betty, back to you.

NGUYEN: Obviously, they want to get back very soon. You said possibly 48 hours. The police chief in Gulf Shores says it may even be two weeks before people will be allowed back in.

TUCHMAN: Well, that's right. Often cases it's longer than that. They are anticipating allowing people back in 48 hours, not necessarily to stay, but to see what kind of damage they had. As far as coming back here to live, it's anybody's guess when that will happen.

NGUYEN: It's going to take some time. All right. Thank you so much, Gary Tuchman -- Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A measure of the former Ivan's power is the number of homes and offices, stores, restaurants and other business that don't have it -- power, that is. At last check, almost two million utility customers from Louisiana to North Carolina are without electricity as we speak, and many of those may be facing a long, dark, very warm weekend.

Others are luckier, with power crews from neighboring states pitching in. The outage figures are slowly going down.

Ivan still makes quite a splash on radar screens. And don't even get us started on Jeanne and Karl. Jacqui Jeras is watching all of them in the overworked weather center, and there's even one out in the Pacific which she might give us a preview of as well.

(WEATHER REPORT)

O'BRIEN: Two city-shaking explosions. At least eight people killed, dozens are injured. A shocking and tragic occurrence in any city, but this is Baghdad, and the latest turn in a violent downward spiral. CNN's Walter Rodgers is there today for us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): These Iraqi police vehicles bore the brunt of the latest suicide car bomb that killed three policemen and five civilians in central Baghdad. This witness said a car first approached the temporary Iraqi checkpoint but was turned away. Then he said the suicide bomber drove back to the checkpoint and blew himself up.

Earlier in the morning, two other suicide bombers tried to attack a U.S. Army checkpoint further up the same street, but soldiers opened fire and the suicide bombers were killed before they could hurt others. In between these two checkpoints Iraqi children fled, continuing gun battles between the U.S. military and the insurgents. This as the Americans tried to weed out stubborn resistance here in Baghdad, but they get no credit from the Iraqis.

A woman complained the Americans have been here for 24 hours and there are so many wounded. The Iraqi Health Ministry estimated 10 wounded.

At Friday prayers, the hostility again bubbled in sermons. In this Shiite mosque, the faithful vow to spill their blood for Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of a rebellious militia.

This Muslim sheik denounced what he called the criminal acts perpetrated against the Iraqi people in Fallujah and in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City, by what he called, "the arrogant occupiers." The Americans were also denounced amid the rubble of another U.S. air strike in Falluja. This Iraqi calling President Bush a criminal who should stop boasting about freedom.

U.S. warplanes targeted another Abu Musab al-Zarqawi meeting site in Falluja. U.S. military sources claim 60 of his supporters were killed, but Iraqi police say 20 civilians died in the air strike.

(on camera): No matter which death toll you choose to believe, the numbers continue to jump upward for both Iraqis and Americans, challenging, at least in the eyes of many Iraqis, the premise this war has been a success story.

Walter Rodgers, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

NGUYEN: Also overseas, a notorious Chechen separatist leader is claiming responsibility for the Russian school massacre. At least 335 people were killed at the end of the three-day hostage drama in Beslan earlier this month. Half of them were schoolchildren.

Chechen terrorist leader Shamil Basayev is claiming responsibility in a rambling e-mail message on his group's Web site. He says his group was also behind last month's bombing of two Russian airliners and an attack on a Moscow theater in 2002. Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will carry out preemptive strikes against terrorists. The Russian leader rejected calls to seek a dialogue with Chechen separatists.

O'BRIEN: A big scene today at the Santa Barbara County courthouse. Here's why. You probably guessed it. Michael Jackson shows up in court, the white team there.

A mother and her toddlers almost get swallowed by a road.

And get ready for a new drill at the airport medical -- metal detectors, not medical. New screening procedures start next week.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: In Santa Maria, California, vintage Michael Jackson again today. Clad in all white, the pop star arrived at court today to watch the mother of the boy who has accused him of molestation. Jackson and members of his family, all of them clad in white as well, waved to fans gather near the courthouse. We'll bring you a live report from our Miguel Marquez as soon as today's proceedings are over.

NGUYEN: Other "News Across America" now.

New measures to tighten security at the nation's airports. Beginning next week, all passengers will have to remove their jackets for x-ray checks. More travelers will also be subject to pat-down searches.

A lucky escape for one Florida family. Check this out. A mother and her two children from Brandon got a fright, but were otherwise unhurt when their car ditched into a five-foot deep sinkhole on a local road. Now, no, it wasn't caused by Ivan, but by a broken water main.

Also, new details on the death of musician Rick James. A coroner's report says the flamboyant funk star had nine drugs in his system, including cocaine, when he died suddenly in August. The report says James, age 56, died of a heart attack, but the drugs likely contributed to the organ's failure.

O'BRIEN: Two new polls telling vastly different tales about the presidential race. A Gallup poll released today shows President Bush with a 13 percentage point lead over John Kerry among likely voters. Among registered voters -- you note the distinction there -- the Bush lead was eight percentage points.

Support for the president is at its highest in a Gallup poll since the capture of Saddam Hussein. But a poll by the Pew Research Center shows a dead heat. Among likely voters, the president has a one percentage point edge. Among registered voters, the candidates are tied.

Let's bring in Walter Shapiro from "USA Today." Now that our heads are swimming with all these numbers, we'll try to make out what the real story is on the numbers.

Walter, good to see you again.

WALTER SHAPIRO, "USA TODAY": Great to be here.

O'BRIEN: Big difference. I guess it's how they ask the question, maybe, huh?

SHAPIRO: Well, part of it is that we can't -- should not get so twitchy over polls. That this -- what clearly happened is that the president got a large bump out of his convention. Most of the public polls...

O'BRIEN: But was it a large bump, or was it just a little bump? Because some polls would say just a little bump.

SHAPIRO: All right. This is the problem: he got an unspecified bump from his convention. And that now what we are getting -- and I know it's a mixed metaphor -- the forces of gravity are working on this bump.

The race is returning to its contours as before. Every one out of every 20 polls is what they call an outlier (ph). That it just -- that the error is greater than the normal error rate. And this Gallup poll, which is out of sync with most other recent polls, may be in that category through nobody's fault.

O'BRIEN: Well then what about the lead story in your August publication today which trumpets that very poll and that 13-point lead?

SHAPIRO: Well, I -- this is one of the problems we all in journalism get caught up in of getting too overexcited by the day-to- day fluctuations in the polls. What really is going on here is that this is an election that is probably going to be decided by both comparative estimates of the candidates and big external events like Iraq and the economy.

I went back and looked at the history of Gallup polls in years with presidential debates since 1960. And for the most part, there have not been significant movements between Labor Day and the first debate. But then once the candidates appear on the same stage, which will happen probably on September 30, then things move fast.

O'BRIEN: All right. So...

SHAPIRO: And if John Kerry is still behind...

O'BRIEN: Yes?

SHAPIRO: ... that would be very, very worrisome for him.

O'BRIEN: All right. The Bush campaign is out there trying to convince people it's over. Is that -- is that spin, or do they have some numbers? And are the trends such that they can say that?

SHAPIRO: Well, each campaign has their own internal polling operations. And we reporters only hear about their internal polls when, oddly enough, those internal polls are favorable to the candidate.

But the truth is that there is -- there are systematic problems with polling right now, one of which is lots of potential young voters don't have regular phones. They only use cell phones, and the cell phones are not called by most media pollsters. So there is -- there are lots of methodological problems to polls.

At the same point, we are drowning in an avalanche of polls. And what Tom Kiley (ph), who is one of Kerry's pollsters, was saying on a Kerry conference call this morning, what the smart thing to do is to average all of the published polls in a week. And they were using this to argue that, based on them -- that, Kerry is only down by a couple of percentage points.

O'BRIEN: All right. Quick...

SHAPIRO: But it is still a good piece of information. Don't overreact to one poll.

O'BRIEN: All right. A quick takeaway on the Kerry campaign. The Clintonistas are in there. Is their imprint fully on this campaign, and have they done a thing for Kerry?

SHAPIRO: Well, I think the -- I was out with Kerry on Tuesday and Wednesday, and I really think his rhetoric is getting sharper and more focused. That said, everybody is in the Clinton -- Kerry campaign.

There are Clintonistas, there are Kennedyistas. There are more istas -- there's everybody but Sandinistas. In fact, I think the only Democratic consultants who are not currently working for John Kerry are those that he has fired in prior incarnations.

(LAUGHTER)

O'BRIEN: OK. Well, we'll just leave it at that. Walter Shapiro, perhaps there might be too much advice running around that campaign. We'll see how it unfolds.

SHAPIRO: Just perhaps.

O'BRIEN: Thanks for dropping by. Always a pleasure.

SHAPIRO: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

Don't think you hear enough about the issues in this campaign? CNN's "AMERICAN MORNING" is debuting a special series next week called "Promises, Promises," what the candidates promise to do," and if they can keep those promises. That begins Monday at 7:00 a.m. Eastern.

Next, evacuating the lions, the tigers and the bears. Everything but the alligators, you could say.

And then we'll kick back with some live jazz at the Monterey Jazz Festival. Bobby McFerrin will perform for us.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Rhonda Schaffler live from the New York Stock Exchange. From Frances to Ivan, how will this hurricane season affect the economy? I'll tell you what the experts are saying right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) NGUYEN: We want to head back to Gulf Shores, Alabama, where CNN's Gary Tuchman is still on the hunt for the gators there. But first, here's a live look from WKRG, where you can take a look at the Gulf Shores area.

A lot of the shoreline has been washed away by Ivan. The sign keeps getting washed away, too. The signal is a little sketchy there. But we want to take you back to Gary Tuchman.

It appears, Gary, you have become one with this hunt for Chuckie.

TUCHMAN: Well, that's right, Betty. And we can tell you, also regarding the damage, the serious flooding that left about nine feet of water into the streets where I'm standing right now, has receded quite a bit, obviously, because we're standing here right now. But all this street behind me was covered with four to nine feet of water yesterday.

There's still some flooding. Not as bad, though, today. However, that flooding caused immense devastation and damage, including to the local zoo.

Most of the animals were evacuated before the hurricane came. But some animals remained behind. And some of them escaped.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): The husband of the zoo director in Gulf Shores, Alabama, is now doubling as an alligator hunter. The zoo is underwater from Hurricane Ivan, and several alligators got away. Unfortunately, for safety reasons, some will have to be killed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's over our heads right here.

TUCHMAN (on camera): Almost all of the other animals were evacuated before the hurricane, but also on the loose, 13 deer who could not be moved before the storm.

PATTI HALL, DIRECTOR, GULF SHORES ZOO: We opened the doors. We knew they could swim. They're in full antlers right now. They do not sedate, nor do they move real well.

TUCHMAN: Patti Hall has been director of the zoo for five years.

This is how the barrier island main street near the zoo looked as the storm rolled in. And hours later, the same street, under nine feet of water in spots. One of the deer was spotted frantically swimming in the waters. Another was found and will be OK after being shot with a tranquilizer dart.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The buildings back in the park and most of the other ones are completely under water.

TUCHMAN: Alligators were seen under that water, including this particular one, spotted by a CNN photographer, which the zoo desperately wants to catch alive. HALL: Well, we were real interested in our big boy, who is Chuckie. And he is about 12 feet, and weighs anywhere from 1,000 to 1,200 pounds. He could pull you down, drown you and swallow you.

TUCHMAN: Another alligator was found and killed. Chuckie, though, is still on the loose.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN: And the director of the zoo is not exaggerating. She says that Chuckie really could swallow you, and that's why they are so seriously looking for Chuckie, who we thought they were going to catch yesterday.

We mentioned this before, Betty, that they were actually throwing dead chickens in the water as bait attached to fishing lines. Chuckie looked interested but then disappeared. The water where Chuckie was swimming, where we spotted Chuckie near the zoo, receded, but Chuckie is nowhere to be seen.

So they are really looking not only in area waters, but also in the streets near us. And this weather has brought out lots of animals into the streets. We've seen many snakes, also. Snakes not affiliated with the zoo, but that have come to the streets because they've been disrupted by this hurricane.

Back to you.

NGUYEN: Well, watch where you are walking. Gary Tuchman, thank you so much -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: I hope Chuckie likes chicken.

Anyway, damage estimates are piling up following this trio of hurricanes now. It may not be the end of it either. The question is, how does it -- how does this ultimately affect the economy? Of course, if you are in the plywood business, you like this, I suppose. You don't really like it, but it is good for business, right, Rhonda?

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

SCHAFFLER: Coming up, what's wrong with the picture we're about to show you, Mary-Kate and Ashley selling fast food? I'll tell you about their new gig later this hour.

CNN's LIVE FROM rolls on right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired September 17, 2004 - 14:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: In Gulf Shores, Alabama, they've got the headaches and heartbreak you'd expect in a place where a Category 3 hurricane made landfall. And they've also got some alligators they can't quite account for. Our account comes now from CNN's Gary Tuchman and the search for Chuckie.
Hey there, Gary.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Betty, hello to you.

And that's right, Chuckie the alligator a very famous tourist sight here in Gulf Shores, Alabama, at the zoo. He's 12 feet long, he weighs between 1,000 and 1,200 pounds. He is a man-eating alligator. He has been missing since this hurricane passed through.

We actually spotted him yesterday. Our photographer got a shot of this huge alligator swimming in the flooded waters right next to the zoo.

They had hoped to lure the alligator with bait, with dead chickens, chickens that had been killed in the hurricane, tied to a fishing line. They hoped the alligator was going to swim to the chickens and then they would lasso the alligator around the neck. They weren't able to get the alligator to bite, so to speak.

The waters near the zoo have now receded, but the alligator is still missing. And he could be anywhere.

Now, we can tell you, on a more serious vain, right now the skies are completely blue. There is not a cloud in the sky. An amazing contrast to almost precisely 36 hours ago when the eye of this hurricane crossed right through here in Gulf Shores with its 110-mile- an-hour gusts that we experienced here.

This island, Gulf Shore is a barrier island, about an hour to the southeast of Mobile, Alabama, is still closed to people who live here and will be closed for another 48 hours. But we were able to get a tour a short time ago of the beach front to give you an idea of what kind of damage they experienced. And the damage is truly immense.

There are many stores and businesses that have lost all their walls. Amazingly, you still see merchandise neatly put on the shelves, but the walls of the stores are gone.

Homes that were on stilts on the beach now completely collapsed. Some homes on stilts are still there, but other ones are gone. It was very arbitrary.

And then the sand. Tons of sand pushed from the beach into the streets. You don't even recognize the streets anymore.

Now, they are very fortunate here in Baldwin County, Alabama, where the eye crossed through. It appears there were no serious injuries, no casualties.

Obviously, this has been a deadly storm in other parts of the United States. They are very grateful here for the lack of casualties, but they have a lot of damage to clean up. And so far, people here are not allowed to come to their homes to see it.

Betty, back to you.

NGUYEN: Obviously, they want to get back very soon. You said possibly 48 hours. The police chief in Gulf Shores says it may even be two weeks before people will be allowed back in.

TUCHMAN: Well, that's right. Often cases it's longer than that. They are anticipating allowing people back in 48 hours, not necessarily to stay, but to see what kind of damage they had. As far as coming back here to live, it's anybody's guess when that will happen.

NGUYEN: It's going to take some time. All right. Thank you so much, Gary Tuchman -- Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A measure of the former Ivan's power is the number of homes and offices, stores, restaurants and other business that don't have it -- power, that is. At last check, almost two million utility customers from Louisiana to North Carolina are without electricity as we speak, and many of those may be facing a long, dark, very warm weekend.

Others are luckier, with power crews from neighboring states pitching in. The outage figures are slowly going down.

Ivan still makes quite a splash on radar screens. And don't even get us started on Jeanne and Karl. Jacqui Jeras is watching all of them in the overworked weather center, and there's even one out in the Pacific which she might give us a preview of as well.

(WEATHER REPORT)

O'BRIEN: Two city-shaking explosions. At least eight people killed, dozens are injured. A shocking and tragic occurrence in any city, but this is Baghdad, and the latest turn in a violent downward spiral. CNN's Walter Rodgers is there today for us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): These Iraqi police vehicles bore the brunt of the latest suicide car bomb that killed three policemen and five civilians in central Baghdad. This witness said a car first approached the temporary Iraqi checkpoint but was turned away. Then he said the suicide bomber drove back to the checkpoint and blew himself up.

Earlier in the morning, two other suicide bombers tried to attack a U.S. Army checkpoint further up the same street, but soldiers opened fire and the suicide bombers were killed before they could hurt others. In between these two checkpoints Iraqi children fled, continuing gun battles between the U.S. military and the insurgents. This as the Americans tried to weed out stubborn resistance here in Baghdad, but they get no credit from the Iraqis.

A woman complained the Americans have been here for 24 hours and there are so many wounded. The Iraqi Health Ministry estimated 10 wounded.

At Friday prayers, the hostility again bubbled in sermons. In this Shiite mosque, the faithful vow to spill their blood for Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of a rebellious militia.

This Muslim sheik denounced what he called the criminal acts perpetrated against the Iraqi people in Fallujah and in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City, by what he called, "the arrogant occupiers." The Americans were also denounced amid the rubble of another U.S. air strike in Falluja. This Iraqi calling President Bush a criminal who should stop boasting about freedom.

U.S. warplanes targeted another Abu Musab al-Zarqawi meeting site in Falluja. U.S. military sources claim 60 of his supporters were killed, but Iraqi police say 20 civilians died in the air strike.

(on camera): No matter which death toll you choose to believe, the numbers continue to jump upward for both Iraqis and Americans, challenging, at least in the eyes of many Iraqis, the premise this war has been a success story.

Walter Rodgers, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

NGUYEN: Also overseas, a notorious Chechen separatist leader is claiming responsibility for the Russian school massacre. At least 335 people were killed at the end of the three-day hostage drama in Beslan earlier this month. Half of them were schoolchildren.

Chechen terrorist leader Shamil Basayev is claiming responsibility in a rambling e-mail message on his group's Web site. He says his group was also behind last month's bombing of two Russian airliners and an attack on a Moscow theater in 2002. Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will carry out preemptive strikes against terrorists. The Russian leader rejected calls to seek a dialogue with Chechen separatists.

O'BRIEN: A big scene today at the Santa Barbara County courthouse. Here's why. You probably guessed it. Michael Jackson shows up in court, the white team there.

A mother and her toddlers almost get swallowed by a road.

And get ready for a new drill at the airport medical -- metal detectors, not medical. New screening procedures start next week.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: In Santa Maria, California, vintage Michael Jackson again today. Clad in all white, the pop star arrived at court today to watch the mother of the boy who has accused him of molestation. Jackson and members of his family, all of them clad in white as well, waved to fans gather near the courthouse. We'll bring you a live report from our Miguel Marquez as soon as today's proceedings are over.

NGUYEN: Other "News Across America" now.

New measures to tighten security at the nation's airports. Beginning next week, all passengers will have to remove their jackets for x-ray checks. More travelers will also be subject to pat-down searches.

A lucky escape for one Florida family. Check this out. A mother and her two children from Brandon got a fright, but were otherwise unhurt when their car ditched into a five-foot deep sinkhole on a local road. Now, no, it wasn't caused by Ivan, but by a broken water main.

Also, new details on the death of musician Rick James. A coroner's report says the flamboyant funk star had nine drugs in his system, including cocaine, when he died suddenly in August. The report says James, age 56, died of a heart attack, but the drugs likely contributed to the organ's failure.

O'BRIEN: Two new polls telling vastly different tales about the presidential race. A Gallup poll released today shows President Bush with a 13 percentage point lead over John Kerry among likely voters. Among registered voters -- you note the distinction there -- the Bush lead was eight percentage points.

Support for the president is at its highest in a Gallup poll since the capture of Saddam Hussein. But a poll by the Pew Research Center shows a dead heat. Among likely voters, the president has a one percentage point edge. Among registered voters, the candidates are tied.

Let's bring in Walter Shapiro from "USA Today." Now that our heads are swimming with all these numbers, we'll try to make out what the real story is on the numbers.

Walter, good to see you again.

WALTER SHAPIRO, "USA TODAY": Great to be here.

O'BRIEN: Big difference. I guess it's how they ask the question, maybe, huh?

SHAPIRO: Well, part of it is that we can't -- should not get so twitchy over polls. That this -- what clearly happened is that the president got a large bump out of his convention. Most of the public polls...

O'BRIEN: But was it a large bump, or was it just a little bump? Because some polls would say just a little bump.

SHAPIRO: All right. This is the problem: he got an unspecified bump from his convention. And that now what we are getting -- and I know it's a mixed metaphor -- the forces of gravity are working on this bump.

The race is returning to its contours as before. Every one out of every 20 polls is what they call an outlier (ph). That it just -- that the error is greater than the normal error rate. And this Gallup poll, which is out of sync with most other recent polls, may be in that category through nobody's fault.

O'BRIEN: Well then what about the lead story in your August publication today which trumpets that very poll and that 13-point lead?

SHAPIRO: Well, I -- this is one of the problems we all in journalism get caught up in of getting too overexcited by the day-to- day fluctuations in the polls. What really is going on here is that this is an election that is probably going to be decided by both comparative estimates of the candidates and big external events like Iraq and the economy.

I went back and looked at the history of Gallup polls in years with presidential debates since 1960. And for the most part, there have not been significant movements between Labor Day and the first debate. But then once the candidates appear on the same stage, which will happen probably on September 30, then things move fast.

O'BRIEN: All right. So...

SHAPIRO: And if John Kerry is still behind...

O'BRIEN: Yes?

SHAPIRO: ... that would be very, very worrisome for him.

O'BRIEN: All right. The Bush campaign is out there trying to convince people it's over. Is that -- is that spin, or do they have some numbers? And are the trends such that they can say that?

SHAPIRO: Well, each campaign has their own internal polling operations. And we reporters only hear about their internal polls when, oddly enough, those internal polls are favorable to the candidate.

But the truth is that there is -- there are systematic problems with polling right now, one of which is lots of potential young voters don't have regular phones. They only use cell phones, and the cell phones are not called by most media pollsters. So there is -- there are lots of methodological problems to polls.

At the same point, we are drowning in an avalanche of polls. And what Tom Kiley (ph), who is one of Kerry's pollsters, was saying on a Kerry conference call this morning, what the smart thing to do is to average all of the published polls in a week. And they were using this to argue that, based on them -- that, Kerry is only down by a couple of percentage points.

O'BRIEN: All right. Quick...

SHAPIRO: But it is still a good piece of information. Don't overreact to one poll.

O'BRIEN: All right. A quick takeaway on the Kerry campaign. The Clintonistas are in there. Is their imprint fully on this campaign, and have they done a thing for Kerry?

SHAPIRO: Well, I think the -- I was out with Kerry on Tuesday and Wednesday, and I really think his rhetoric is getting sharper and more focused. That said, everybody is in the Clinton -- Kerry campaign.

There are Clintonistas, there are Kennedyistas. There are more istas -- there's everybody but Sandinistas. In fact, I think the only Democratic consultants who are not currently working for John Kerry are those that he has fired in prior incarnations.

(LAUGHTER)

O'BRIEN: OK. Well, we'll just leave it at that. Walter Shapiro, perhaps there might be too much advice running around that campaign. We'll see how it unfolds.

SHAPIRO: Just perhaps.

O'BRIEN: Thanks for dropping by. Always a pleasure.

SHAPIRO: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

Don't think you hear enough about the issues in this campaign? CNN's "AMERICAN MORNING" is debuting a special series next week called "Promises, Promises," what the candidates promise to do," and if they can keep those promises. That begins Monday at 7:00 a.m. Eastern.

Next, evacuating the lions, the tigers and the bears. Everything but the alligators, you could say.

And then we'll kick back with some live jazz at the Monterey Jazz Festival. Bobby McFerrin will perform for us.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Rhonda Schaffler live from the New York Stock Exchange. From Frances to Ivan, how will this hurricane season affect the economy? I'll tell you what the experts are saying right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) NGUYEN: We want to head back to Gulf Shores, Alabama, where CNN's Gary Tuchman is still on the hunt for the gators there. But first, here's a live look from WKRG, where you can take a look at the Gulf Shores area.

A lot of the shoreline has been washed away by Ivan. The sign keeps getting washed away, too. The signal is a little sketchy there. But we want to take you back to Gary Tuchman.

It appears, Gary, you have become one with this hunt for Chuckie.

TUCHMAN: Well, that's right, Betty. And we can tell you, also regarding the damage, the serious flooding that left about nine feet of water into the streets where I'm standing right now, has receded quite a bit, obviously, because we're standing here right now. But all this street behind me was covered with four to nine feet of water yesterday.

There's still some flooding. Not as bad, though, today. However, that flooding caused immense devastation and damage, including to the local zoo.

Most of the animals were evacuated before the hurricane came. But some animals remained behind. And some of them escaped.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): The husband of the zoo director in Gulf Shores, Alabama, is now doubling as an alligator hunter. The zoo is underwater from Hurricane Ivan, and several alligators got away. Unfortunately, for safety reasons, some will have to be killed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's over our heads right here.

TUCHMAN (on camera): Almost all of the other animals were evacuated before the hurricane, but also on the loose, 13 deer who could not be moved before the storm.

PATTI HALL, DIRECTOR, GULF SHORES ZOO: We opened the doors. We knew they could swim. They're in full antlers right now. They do not sedate, nor do they move real well.

TUCHMAN: Patti Hall has been director of the zoo for five years.

This is how the barrier island main street near the zoo looked as the storm rolled in. And hours later, the same street, under nine feet of water in spots. One of the deer was spotted frantically swimming in the waters. Another was found and will be OK after being shot with a tranquilizer dart.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The buildings back in the park and most of the other ones are completely under water.

TUCHMAN: Alligators were seen under that water, including this particular one, spotted by a CNN photographer, which the zoo desperately wants to catch alive. HALL: Well, we were real interested in our big boy, who is Chuckie. And he is about 12 feet, and weighs anywhere from 1,000 to 1,200 pounds. He could pull you down, drown you and swallow you.

TUCHMAN: Another alligator was found and killed. Chuckie, though, is still on the loose.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN: And the director of the zoo is not exaggerating. She says that Chuckie really could swallow you, and that's why they are so seriously looking for Chuckie, who we thought they were going to catch yesterday.

We mentioned this before, Betty, that they were actually throwing dead chickens in the water as bait attached to fishing lines. Chuckie looked interested but then disappeared. The water where Chuckie was swimming, where we spotted Chuckie near the zoo, receded, but Chuckie is nowhere to be seen.

So they are really looking not only in area waters, but also in the streets near us. And this weather has brought out lots of animals into the streets. We've seen many snakes, also. Snakes not affiliated with the zoo, but that have come to the streets because they've been disrupted by this hurricane.

Back to you.

NGUYEN: Well, watch where you are walking. Gary Tuchman, thank you so much -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: I hope Chuckie likes chicken.

Anyway, damage estimates are piling up following this trio of hurricanes now. It may not be the end of it either. The question is, how does it -- how does this ultimately affect the economy? Of course, if you are in the plywood business, you like this, I suppose. You don't really like it, but it is good for business, right, Rhonda?

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

SCHAFFLER: Coming up, what's wrong with the picture we're about to show you, Mary-Kate and Ashley selling fast food? I'll tell you about their new gig later this hour.

CNN's LIVE FROM rolls on right after this break.

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