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Mount St. Helen's Erupts

Aired October 04, 2004 - 12:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: If you are just tuning in, the volcano blows. You are looking at live pictures right now of Mount St. Helens, where a stream of steam is shooting high into the sky right now. Mount St. Helens released more of this steam not long ago, within the past 30 minutes, following several days of tremors and low- level earthquakes that have raised many fears among scientists that the mountain may blow at any moment.
Now what you're seeing is live pictures of the steam shooting into the air. Our Ted Rowlands is there live on the scene, picking up the story for us. We've had a number of correspondents in the past week-and-a-half or so.

Ted, can you hear me OK?

ROWLANDS: Yeah, I can, Kyra.

And we have with us Bonnie Lippitt, who is with the forest service here and has been out here since the beginning. This seems to be a larger event than we saw on Friday, in terms of the thickness of it. What's your opinion of this? And we've just been listening to the folks from the USGS -- is this it?

BONNIE LIPPITT, U.S. FORESTRY SERVICE: Well, this is one it. The scientists have been indicating that there was the potential for steam and/or steam and ash explosions that could occur at any time. And this is a steam and ash event that has occurred. It does appear at this point that it is bigger than the event on Friday. And it does involve not only steam, but ash.

And right now, given the prevailing winds, it looks like the plume is slowly drifting out to the northeast. It looks like the plume is continuing...

LIPPITT: ... It does appear at this point that it is bigger than the other event on Friday. And it does involve not only steam but ash.

And right now, given the prevailing winds, it looks like the plume is slowly drifting out to the northeast. It looks like the plume is continuing. What we saw on Saturday morning was a slight puff, and then it dissipated. This right now is continuing.

So it's probably been going now for 10, 15 minutes.

TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Fifteen minutes, yes. The biggest concern at this point is aviation, I would assume, because of the consistency of the ash if it is actually intermixed in this steam.

Has the air space been restricted or closed down or what's the situation?

LIPPITT: Two things with regard to that. There was an air space restriction that was put into effect yesterday. The forest service requested the Federal Aviation Administration to do a general closure around the crater. And that was mainly for general commercial aviation.

I did hear on the radio as I was driving here and witnessing the event in the car on the way to the stop here, the radio transmission, they have initiated the call down list. And FAA is one of the first folks on the call down list, very much for the reason that this can pose a threat to commercial aviation.

ROWLANDS: Now, in 1980 when Mount St. Helens blew, a good portion of the actual mountain blew with it, and it was an event which also associated with a 5.2 earthquake.

What we're looking at now, is it in the classic sense an eruption? Or what are the differences between that catastrophic eruption and what we're seeing now, which seems fairly benign and safe for folks at least in our area?

LIPPITT: Well, you asked if this is an eruption. And based on what the scientists tell us, this classifies as an eruption.

But obviously, it's on a scale way below what occurred on May 18, 1980. There has been some ash ejected, and there's been some steam ejected. I haven't heard whether there's been any lava witnessed on the surface. And we haven't heard what the earthquake activity or the seismic record has been associated with this.

But yes, this does count as an eruption. It's just a very small one at this point, even though it looks very dramatic.

ROWLANDS: Could it be a precursor to a larger eruption in -- which would also carry with it magma or lava when it comes out of the volcano?

LIPPITT: The scientists have been indicating all along that there could be many events of this size. There could be an event that's slightly larger. The magma may make to it the surface; it may not. So it could be a precursor, and at the very same time, it may not be.

ROWLANDS: And right now what they're going to be watching, I guess, is the duration, really, of this event. And it doesn't seem, like you mentioned, to be slowing down by any stretch of the imagination.

LIPPITT: They'll be watching the duration of this event. There'll be, of course, eyes glued on seismographs that give the seismic or earthquake activity that's occurring. And again, we've been talking over the last couple of days about the fact that harmonic tremors often indicate the movement of magma. So they'll be looking to see if harmonic tremors are involved. And at some point, they'll be trying to determine whether or not magma has actually reached the surface of the lava dome and is -- is now on the surface.

ROWLANDS: The analogy of letting off steam was used earlier, like this was a pressure cooker situation. And this -- will this event sort of help alleviate the pressure and maybe prevent a larger event?

LIPPITT: The pattern that we've seen is that the pressure builds up and then there's an event, and then there's sort of a quiet period of seismicity. And then the pressure builds up again.

And it all depends on what's happening under the volcano in the magma body under the lava dome, whether this system will continue to repressurize or not. I don't think we know that at this point.

ROWLANDS: And when the level three was issued on Saturday basically saying that an event was imminent, an eruption was imminent, is this what we're talking about? Was this what the warning was about or did it also encompass a larger event, which is still a possibility?

LIPPITT: Yes, and yes. That's the short answer.

Yes, this is the kind of event that they have been talking about. And as we've just been discussing, this could be the end of it. This could be the start of many such events of this scale. This could be a precursor to a slightly larger event should magma arrive on the surface and be a little more explosive.

ROWLANDS: And really, the only concern now is the air quality in terms of aircraft and then also if there is ash, is it safe to say that it would make its way to the ground eventually or could it be absorbed and be pushed up into the atmosphere with the steam?

LIPPITT: Some of the ash would likely make its way to the ground, whether it drops out closer to the volcano or whether the winds and such are able to carry it farther.

That's why the forest service, for precautionary measures, pulled people back a few miles from the volcano itself. We're all back on the perimeter, about seven to eight miles from the volcano, with the idea that the steam and ash events would be, you know, fairly small, the ash would drop out. And the ash reaching the ground might be a light dusting.

Of course, all of this is subject to change. The geologists are continuing to evaluate the situation. And we're continuing to talk closely with them and make whatever changes in management that we need to, to respond appropriately for the safety of the public.

ROWLANDS: All right. Bonnie Lippitt is with us talking us through this with the forest service. It's your job to really make sure that everything is safe in the park area and for folks that want to come up here and see this dramatic event.

And you feel fairly confident that the eight-mile radius which has been cleared is enough, especially for something like this.

LIPPITT: We feel confident now because we've worked closely with the U.S. Geological Survey. And they indicate that this is a safe position to be.

Should conditions change and they indicate that it's not a safe position, we would take appropriate measures to move people back farther. They're not telling us that at this point.

But believe me, everyone takes the safety of the public very, very seriously. This is always the foremost question in our minds.

ROWLANDS: I don't know if, Kyra, you can see it or it comes across...

KYRA PHILLIPS, ANCHOR: That's amazing.

ROWLANDS: ... over the air. But it seems as though, in terms of the intensity of the release point, if you will, has widened, or the area of the release point may have widened a bit. It seems like it's coming up maybe a little bit wider breadth or maybe it's just the way the wind has maybe died down at this -- at this juncture.

PHILLIPS: Ted, I've got a question for you, Ted.

ROWLANDS: Definitely, it's not slowing down. Yes?

PHILLIPS: Ted, ask the guest there...

LIPPITT: It's still going here. And it looks like it's going, and it looks a lot darker.

ROWLANDS: Go ahead, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: That was my question. As you look at that -- as we look as that tight shot, there's -- there's part of the steam and the ash, it's a dark cloud. The other part is white.

I'm definitely not a scientist. So can you explain why the different -- right now we've got a tight shot on it. Part is like black; the other part is white. Can you explain the technicality there?

ROWLANDS: Well, the question here, Bonnie, is quickly, the difference between -- we're seeing dark and light areas. It would presumably be the contents of ash, would it not, in the steam emission? Would that be accurate?

LIPPITT: That's right. That's -- generally if it's a white cloud, they're thinking it's mostly water vapor and steam, but when you get the dark cloud, that means ash is involved.

ROWLANDS: OK. Bonnie Lippitt has to scoot. She's being pulled away here by her colleagues with the forest service.

Thanks for talking to us and talking us through the initial portion of this event, which could, I guess, go on indefinitely.

LIPPITT: Yes, it could.

ROWLANDS: You just never know.

LIPPITT: It could go for a long time.

ROWLANDS: We're already at about 20 minutes. And the Friday event was about 20 minutes in duration. But this doesn't look like it's slowing down by any stretch of the imagination.

All right. Thanks, Bonnie.

LIPPITT: You're welcome.

ROWLANDS: I know you have to run here.

LIPPITT: Yes.

ROWLANDS: Kyra, but it is really amazing. I don't know if it translates or not on camera, but it is really amazing to sit here and watch nature at work and see this billowing effect come out of the middle of this volcano, which has really been -- seemed so placid and peaceful this morning when we arrived here, early this morning when the sun came up.

PHILLIPS: It's pretty incredible, Ted. We're able to get some pretty tight shots in addition to a wider shot with you. I mean, it's pretty -- it's beautiful. And it's interesting to watch how it develops.

We're going to ask you to stand by, Ted.

We want to bring in our Jacqui Jeras now.

One thing that Ted did talk about, there are a number of concerns about the plume there with the ash and the steam. And Jacqui, you can talk about sort of the wind shifts here and how far you think the winds at this time is going to push this plume in certain directions.

Obviously, a major concern, as Ted said, to aviation because of the thickness, particularly with the ash.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Right. Absolutely.

I know there were some restrictions that were put in place yesterday for aviation. I believe it was 13,000 feet and below, you couldn't fly at that level. So that doesn't affect the commercial industry, really. It's mostly the general aviation, some of the smaller planes that tend to fly.

But that can get caught in the engines and cause engine failure. So certainly it's going to be some problems for aviation. As for the wind dispersion, the prevailing winds are mostly easterly. We're going to see a little bit of variation today.

What's going on is there's a big ridge of high pressure in place. And so winds earlier today were a little bit more coming in from the northeast. Now they're a little bit more easterly. And we're expecting them to shift, then, a little bit more southeasterly later on this afternoon and this evening.

The good news is that overall, the upper level and lower level winds in this area are relatively light. So that will reduce dispersion a little bit.

Also -- it also depends on how significant this is going to be. I think if it's maybe a level two or a level three it's not going to go all that far.

We've got a keyhole animation that I want to show you that kind of gives you a perspective of where this could be going. As the winds are coming in from the east, that means that the steam and the smoke and the ash is going to be heading in a westerly direction. And that's actually better news because that's a much less populated area.

Of course, Portland sits down no the south and west of there. And we also have Seattle up to the north and west. And so Seattle would be more affected by this than Portland, even though it is farther away. It's about 90 miles away.

There you can see the animation going into the crater. And giving you perspective. This will be the direction that it's coming to, then. The ash would be blowing in this direction. There you can see the northerly view of the volcano there.

But the dispersion hopefully will stay relatively light and should be heading toward the ocean and moving away from many of the more populated areas.

Also another thing to think about, too, Kyra, is what kind of problems this could cause to people. Respiratory problems. You get that ash in the atmosphere. People who have respiratory problems and young children also don't want to be outside if there's ashes coming their way at all.

I also understand it can cause some damage to your car that if you leave that ash sitting on your car. You may get a little bit of a dust from this today, but it doesn't look like it should be anything widespread.

Of course we're going to have to wait and see how significant this does become. But again, Kyra, moving off to the west will be the direction that the ash and smoke will be going.

PHILLIPS: Moving west. All right. Jacqui Jeras from the weather center there, thank you so much.

Now somebody -- obviously we have Ted Rowlands there on the scene. Kimberly Osias has been there at Mount St. Helens for the past couple of days.

But somebody who actually got very close to that lava dome, definitely got close to the crater and spent some time side by side with scientists there at Mount St. Helens, our own Miles O'Brien.

Now we're covering the X Prize. So we want to -- we want to keep our eyes focused on the prize there, Miles. A lot of stuff happening there in the Mojave Desert. But if you could talk Mount St. Helens with us here.

We're looking at a live shot of the ash and the steam. Why don't you take us back to the time that you were there and with the scientists and why something like this is so interesting to them and why they study this volcano?

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Kyra. Let's take our eye off the prize for a moment and we'll talk about Mount St. Helens.

You know, this is a volcano that is so heavily instrumented and watched and carefully calibrated and focused on by the U.S. Geological Service, the University of Washington, that it really amounts to a great scientific test bed. It is a laboratory, if you will, if you're into volcanism. There is probably no volcano on this planet that has more instrumentation, has been focused on this much.

It's the most active volcano in the lower 48 states in the United States of America. And it has all kinds of instrumentation on top there. I had the occasion to fly on top of that lava dome a few years ago and spend a little time with those scientists, breathing that thick sulfur steam that comes through it. It's always steaming a little bit.

And getting a sense of how they measure every last little movement of that dome. Giving a sense of whether the crack moves ever so slightest much by using various types of metal tapes and feed that information down to a base damp. Laser beams which allow them to point to a fixed point and know if that dome is moving in a specific way.

This is how they're able to come up with these very specific warnings that we've been hearing. Because there's so -- so much instrumentation there and so many indications of the seismicity, what the earthquakes are doing, what the magma flow is doing beneath.

And that gives them that ability to tell us at least a bracket of time as to when things might get really serious for Mount St. Helens. There's still a fair amount of black science to it. They still have to kind of do some guesswork. You can't predict earthquakes, and you cannot predict specifically when volcanoes are going to happen.

It's a lot different than, for example, watching those hurricanes barrel into Florida, with the amount of predictive capability we have for them. So it's interesting.

You know, we should put one thing in perspective here, Kyra. Back in 1980 when Mount St. Helens erupted, first of all, the level and the frequency of seismicity occurred over a couple of months leading up to it. And it literally blew a thousand feet off the top of Mount St. Helens. Tremendous force. This so-called pyroclastic (ph) flow, which is rocks and dust and lava, it went down that mountain in an avalanche that literally traveled at 300 miles an hour as it got started, slowed down to about 100 miles an hour. And just absolutely deforested that area around there where that avalanche occurred.

The ash plumes covered huge, huge parts of the United States. Some of it landing even in Oklahoma, for example, causing all kinds of hazards to aviation.

And, of course, 57 people died in the course of that because even though there were all these warnings, no one really had a sense of how much power and force and how quickly that huge pyroclastic floe would occur.

So what we're seeing here appeals in comparison. For one thing, it's already blown its top. In our lifetime, it's not going to have the stuff to make a repeat of what happened in 1980. And secondly we haven't seen the level of seismicity or magma flowing beneath there that would rival what happened in 1980.

The other thing to remember here is that, given the scale of what can happen, the parameters of what's possible, this is an area that's not very heavily populated. And as a result, as long as people kind of sit back and watch this, it is really a scientific spectacle more than anything.

Yes, there are concerns about people breathing in that gas. You don't want to do that. You want to make sure the airplanes don't fly through it. The FAA is doing just that as we speak. It's not a huge air traffic hub that part of the world, so it's not a huge, huge issue. But nevertheless they want to keep people out of there.

So what it really amounts to for these scientists is a tremendous opportunity to sort of hone their skills and see how good those predictions that they've been working on, looking at St. Helens for all these years, how good those predictions really are.

And I don't know if you know this, but right beside me here -- Kyra, we're going to hope to get her out here -- is Kimberly Osias. Who is covering the X Prize for our news source affiliates. And as soon as we get her out here, she's going to add some of her insights for us, because she was just there, as you know.

But Kyra, I think the thing we have to keep in mind here is that it is more of a spectacle than it is a hazard to human life. That's an important point here as people watch it.

PHILLIPS: Well, Miles, you had the chance -- we're going to get this video right now. Maybe we can bring it side by side, because even though these pictures are pretty amazing, it's even more amazing when you're there scaling the volcano.

And I know that you did that. I know you took a helicopter in and actually made to it the crater. And I know Kimberly was there. I don't know how close she actually got. Probably not as close as you did.

But as we work to get that video, can you just tell us what it was like personally to actually scale this volcano and to spend time with these scientists, what you saw, what you felt, what it smelled like?

I mean, give us sort of that feeling of what it was like to be right there on the volcano.

O'BRIEN: Well, you know, Kyra, how I feel about flying in all kinds of things. Helicopters, airplanes and maybe one day if I'm lucky a spaceship. But that's not what we're talking about here today.

I've got to tell you, I've never been more scared in an aircraft than I was in that helicopter as it tried to land on that lava dome. In the midst of that crater, right in the center of the crater, is that bulging lava dome. And the wind just swirls around that crater.

We couldn't land. We tried six attempts and each time we were literally blown off the dome as we tried to do it.

We finally landed at the base of the crater, forcing us to scale about 950 feet above to the top, where we met the U.S. Geological Survey scientists who had landed earlier before the swirl was so great and didn't have to do that hike.

All the while we're hiking up this terrible lava -- hardened lava which amounts to crusty rock. Very, very challenging hiking. We lost a sound tech along the way, who had passed out. He had to be choppered down the mountain. I ultimately was carrying the sound gear up there on this hike.

We get to the top. And it -- the whole way there's the most rotting stench of eggs that you can imagine. It is just an overwhelming smell. And that's something you don't really get here.

And it does make you think about the hazards that we encounter as we do our job, just sucking in this sulfur dioxide and any other -- it's a witch's brew of gases just coming out of, literally, the center of the earth.

It's -- it really a window on the haute molten core of our planet. And it reminds us how this planet was formed. And what you're seeing here has a lot to do with creating the atmosphere we live in. Without this volcanic activity, we wouldn't be able to enjoy the nice air that we breathe right now, if you get in the grand scheme of things.

Kimberly Osias is laced up beside me right now, Kyra. And she just -- she literally just flew down from St. Helens, as you watch us.

We were just talking about how, you know, you come down here to cover the X Prize and, of course, the volcano will erupt. KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

O'BRIEN: But when you talk to people there as you were there, the fear level ratcheted up ever so much. I'm not -- I don't want to overstate it, because it's not like they've evacuated towns there.

But the scientists who have to get close were given it a fairly wide berth, weren't they?

OSIAS: They were indeed. You know what, Miles? One thing is I said, you know, "You guys can get on a chopper and get out." And they know that, which is a little bit -- and again, I don't want to overstate it either because, you know, in looking at it you can see that the enormous plume of steam, ash and smoke. And obviously, the biggest concern safety wise are for respiratory concerns at this juncture, really.

But it is -- it is a bit amazing to see. And you know, talking about that warm magma moving underneath the dome, you know, they were saying, really, that they think the volume is increasing on that.

And the fact that we didn't see anything yesterday really is a bit ominous that something may -- may be coming that is more substantial.

O'BRIEN: So every day sort of the stakes get a little higher in that way.

OSIAS: That's exactly right.

O'BRIEN: I used this analogy before. You think of a pot sort of simmering on the stove and you've got the lid on the pot. And eventually, it kind of just -- enough pressure builds up inside there that it overflows.

OSIAS: That's right.

O'BRIEN: So you've got this simmering pot. This volcano has been simmering, you know, ever since before 1980.

OSIAS: That's right.

O'BRIEN: Very active. And what happens is over time, the pressure inside gets great enough to kind of blow the lid here and there.

And the question becomes -- I guess, where it gets really tricky is when so much pressure builds up. In other words, the dome becomes so strong as to contain a lot of pressure that you could get a real explosive kind of eruption. That's where it gets very dicey on the prediction.

OSIAS: That's exactly right. It has to go somewhere. I mean, these geologists have used an analogy much like a Coke can. That you know, these bubbles sort of build up and brew. And exactly, as you said, that sort of veritable witch's brew underneath. And then it has to go somewhere.

And talking about where it's going, my guess, Miles, is there is a glacial collar -- a glacial collar behind the dome. And that, there's about a 600-foot expanse where the first sort of eruption of steam came out of. And my guess is that's sort of the path of least resistance, if you will. So my guess is that's what's happening as we're looking at these pictures live now.

O'BRIEN: Yes. There was obviously a weak spot there.

I do recall in 1980, immediately prior to the big eruption -- of course, there had been all kinds of warnings about it. But there was a very significant earthquake immediately prior. I think approaching magnitude five. And that might have just set the stage for creating just that kind of weakening that you just described.

There was a bulge in the mountain at the time. And that bulge just gave away with such an explosive force that it literally blew off 1,000 feet of that mountain. And it's hard to imagine what that was like to be anywhere near it.

OSIAS: That's exactly right. I mean, it is -- until you actually see it and you think a third of that mountain has been blown off and when you look at it you can't tell now.

But you do this sort of visual of putting your fingers up, much like a grade school child does and making sort of the here's the church, there's the steeple type of thing. And you realize that a third of it blew off, the whole north face there. It's -- it's pretty remarkable.

O'BRIEN: I do recall when I was there a few years ago when we flew were flying the chopper up toward the mountain.

Still a tremendous amount of evidence. It probably has dissipated over time. But you still old trees down. You still see evidence of the force of that eruption and that pyroclastic floe, that hot flow of lava and gases and rocks...

OSIAS: Yes.

O'BRIEN: ... that just moved down that mountain, 300 miles an hour at some points. And it just knocked every tree down in its wake. It's just hard to imagine that kind of force of nature.

OSIAS: It's a stark dichotomy. I mean, you see these trees that literally are lying like matchsticks. Some still standing there and just absolutely dead.

And then juxtaposed with that, a ways away you see very vibrant life burgeoning, coming back to -- you know, to life as a force just trying to rebuild, because a lot of timber companies have done replanting and have been actively involved in that.

But it is a very graphic reminder, as you were saying, Miles, of the fact that this is, you know -- nature is alive; it is moving. It is an ecosystem that's evolving. And there's so much that we don't know.

And even these scientists out there, I think, you know, there is -- they're trying to sort of run these analyses and figure out the best guesses. But nobody really knows, because you're dealing with a very fickle element, Mother Nature.

PHILLIPS: Kyra, you know, when I met those scientists up on top of the dome, I was so impressed with their honest to goodness courage...

PHILLIPS: Miles, we've got the video. We actually have the video now of you.

O'BRIEN: You have it?

PHILLIPS: Yes, yes. We found the video. Talk about this scientist that you were with and tell us about this equipment.

O'BRIEN: I was with a guy by the name of -- one of the lead scientists was a guy by the name of Dan Deriso (ph), who's still there at the USGS.

And one of the things they told us, almost from the outset, was there was a scientist who, in the process of doing his job in 1980, lost his life.

And these guys, yes, they take calculated risk and they have choppers nearby. But they are truly committed individuals. The term hero is bandied about an awful lot. But this is for real.

Take a look. These are the seismometers that they put inside the dome, giving a sense of the flow of the magma, whether there's any earthquake activity underway.

Of course, they don't want to be up there all the time. And so one of the keys in all this -- there's some of the laser -- that's not unlike what you see on a surveying crew, essentially giving them the capability to really detect the most minute kind of movement of that dome.

And that is sent down -- there's that wild helicopter ride. I'll never forget that one. That was something. And a little bit of snowfall there at the time at about 8,600 feet there.

Then all of that, as the scientists landed successfully on the dome, all of that is sent down via modem. So they can sit there in the relative safe confines of their facility at the USGS Cascades Observatory and track this thing using that capability.

They go up there and check the instruments every now and then, but in this case, it's nice to have that remote control capability. So...

PHILLIPS: Amazing pictures.

O'BRIEN: ... that's it from here now, Kyra. We're watching two stories at once: X Prize and now Mount St. Helens. Kimberly Osias and Miles O'Brien here in, of all places, Mojave talking about Mount St. Helens.

PHILLIPS: You guys are double duty. You're doing the X Prize and both of you doing Mount St. Helens. It's perfect.

Miles, we're going to check back in with you for both of these stories, as this one continues to break.

We're going to take you now live to a news conference that's taking place with the USGS.

If you are just tuning in, Mount St. Helens, it blew. And we're covering it live. This is the news conference right now with scientists.

Let's listen in.

WILLIE SCOTT, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: ... wave detected from the microphones out there. What we think it is, is we think something quite hot has moved up and is in contact with the glacier or with very shallow water around the glacier.

And basically what you're seeing is boiling of steam from boiling of this -- of the water from the melting ice. That there's very little, if any, ash in the plume.

And what's -- what's interesting is that the earthquakes that we are having are just continuing right through this. So there's -- there's many little earthquakes occurring, which is probably related to the magma moving up. And what you see in the cloud is the interaction of that with melt water from the glacier.

So this is pretty good evidence that -- that we do have something hot in the system that's poking its way up. And it's now gotten either at the surface or really very close to it.

And that there are a couple of possibilities that, you know, what we may see first is if this is hot degassed lava plug coming up, that it may form a little dome or perhaps a little spine over that vent area. Or it could go to, you know, more explosive kind of events with ash and pumice.

So that's what we're watching very closely, to see if there's the onset of that kind of activity. And again, it's fortunate that it's a clear day and that we have a good view of the mountain.

And the estimates that they made from looking at it from CBO, as we did on Saturday, is that it probably only got to about a thousand feet above the rim, that highest part of the steam cloud.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have you had any evidence at all that the dome itself has changed dramatically?

SCOTT: Well, of this event? No, we can't see, because everything is steamy. One thing I didn't get to this morning is this observation of this intense deformation that was occurring around the area of the cracked -- where the glacier was being lifted up.

That observation late yesterday, we estimated that that had gone up a total of about 100 feet over the last few days and was becoming more intensely cracked. And again, what probably has happened is whatever was pushing suddenly this morning got to the position where it could be in contact with a lot of water and cause this -- this boiling.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Again, the lack of -- not allowing (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

SCOTT: Well, I -- yes, that would be interesting to know. You know, the helicopters in the air should be able to tell if the flow over the two waterfalls, Lewitt (ph) and Steppe (ph), has increased appreciable.

But again, the -- the rate of melting and boiling is certainly going to be releasing water. But again, it's not going to be of a magnitude that's going to cause dangerous, you know, floods far downstream.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Willie, is this is some form of a release of -- of some heat or what not, have we seen the seismic activity level off? Did that give you any clear indication at all?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We have to repeat questions.

SCOTT: Oh. Oh, sorry. Can you repeat the question?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If this, as he indicated, was a release of some hot liquid of some nature, the melting of the glaciers, you know, ground water -- ground water at the surface, and that's all it was, is we see a tailing off of the seismicity here in the next several hours, would that give us any clear indication for what's to come?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What the question is is if this was simply a blowing over of ground water on the surface and we see a tailing off of seismicity, does that give us any indication of what's coming?

SCOTT: And the answer is I think -- I think all options are open. You know, seismicity could intensify. It could, you know, stay level and go down a bit. But we're going to be on some sort of a roller coaster.

And it's this timing of -- of events now is really -- you know, all we can do is just observe them. And look for any signs that -- that might tell us, you know, that something is -- is accelerating.

You know, we might see that in the seismic rate, but the -- you know, we lowered this GPS unit on the dome yesterday, late yesterday afternoon, and started receiving data from it. And that may tell us, may give us a point within the crater to say whether the greater dome is involved in this movement, and that may be significant in knowing the size of the -- size of what's at depth.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The question is, if the dome was involved, would that increase the size of the flow?

SCOTT: Yes, it would increase that the plug is larger than we would estimate from just that small area on the back of the dome.

QUESTION: Take one question from the phone bridge. Go ahead with your follow-up.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What would the level of explosivity if the dome is involved rather than the vent hole?

SCOTT: Well, it might just mean that we're dealing with a larger volume, and that may mean that either a larger volume extrusion would occur or a larger volume explosive eruption would occur.

QUESTION: Question from the phone bridge. OK, we'll go on with the ones in the room.

Wait a minute. Wait a minute, let's be orderly about this -- let's take yours, then yours.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The question was, given the various options, scenarios, how are we going to know which option was active at the time?

SCOTT: The best thing is watch and see what happens. That's 100 percent correct. But yes, I don't -- I just wouldn't -- you know, I think a logical sequence is that something fairly solid comes up first, and then it's just another part of the plug and maybe a weakening part of the plug, and if explosive eruptions are going to follow, it would blow that out of there, move that out of there, break it up, blow it out of there, and then go on to a more continuous kind of eruption.

QUESTION: Can we tell yet how much ash is involved?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can we tell how much ash is involved here?

SCOTT: No, the views from people looking at from a distance, it doesn't appear that much ash, if any, is coming out. If this, in fact, is hot material getting in contact with water and boiling it, the environment is so wet that, unless there's a real strong jetting, particulates won't get up in the air. It looks like is by far steam.

QUESTION: Wait a minute. I'm sorry. We'll have to take questions in some sort of order. I believe you were next.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are we drawing any conclusions from the length of this particular event?

SCOTT: Well, I think they're quite different events. That was a pressurization and then an explosion, and basically, what we're seeing here is boiling going on with hot material has contacted the ice. If it's slowing off, what it maybe means is that that boiling process removed heat from that area, cooled things down to the point where there's not a lot of interaction between hot material and the water, but if that keeps moving up and opens cracks, water can get in, you know, it's likely that we'll continue to see this kind of steaming activity.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If Dr. Scott feels this is unprecedented, will it be more difficult for us to predict the next activity in the future?

SCOTT: I don't know that I used the term unprecedented. It is a different kind of event than what we've seen over the past few days, because again, it's rather than pressurization and explosion, we're seeing something hot in contact with the snow and ice and causing the boiling.

Yes, I was meaning in a very short term sense, yes. Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's have you, and then you.

SCOTT: How confident is it that the magma is degassed based on what we're seeing?

QUESTION: It's -- I was thinking of something else. Could you repeat it? I'm sorry.

Well, I think what's leading the show, that's probably degassed, because it's up at shallow level, but what we're more concerned about is what's following behind it. And I think over the past few days, we become more concerned from the gas measurements and so forth that there is gas in the magma. And the exact content is -- we just can't judge. But the suggestion is that there's certainly gas there, and that somewhere along the line we expect an explosive eruption. It's the scale of that that's difficult to tell at this point.

PHILLIPS: Scientist Willie Scott with the USGS, there briefing reporters about Mount St. Helens letting out steam not long ago. We just have been following this for about the last half an hour or so. As we've been reporting, Willie Scott sort of getting technical there and explaining why we're seeing this right now, and he explained it's a boiling of melted water from the glacier underneath, and they know that that's what's letting off the steam, because there's very little ash that's actually in the air. There is a little bit of ash and steam, but it's mostly the steam from this boiling water, and that there have been these mini-earthquakes due to the magma mixing up down there and sort of working its way up the lava dome.

Now he said, if indeed this kind of -- it is hot, degassed lava coming up, then it could be more explosive, and that's why they're concerned and they continue to monitor this by the second right now.

Fortunately, Willie Scott saying it's a clear day. They're able to see it without a problem and monitor it without any problems.

Gale Norton, secretary of interior, actually got a chance to fly with Willie Scott and tour Mount St. Helens recently. She's been reporting to us on what she saw and the experience. Pleasure to have you, Secretary Norton.

Why don't you bring us up to date from your trip right now, the conversations you've been having, and tell us what it was like to get in that helicopter and fly around that volcano.

GALE NORTON, SECY. OF INTERIOR: We flew in an area that's probably about the same as where the cloud is right now. We were in a fixed-wing aircraft, and flew around got a pretty close view of what was happening in the volcano. We saw the area that is bulging up, where the magma is under the earth and is beginning to show signs that something may give way; we may have more major explosion.

We do know that there have been three events that have occurred so far. And then in addition, this new one that just occurred. The most recent is different in that the others were all connected to earthquake activity. This one seemed to be very superficial in that it was not tied to the earthquake activity, and so really doesn't have the same indication of what's going on down below, doesn't seem to indicate as much about what's happening down below as the others did.

PHILLIPS: All right, forgive me, you were in a fixed-wing, not a helicopter. Miles O'Brien way saying it was probably one of the scariest rides of his life, getting up and landing on that volcano in a helicopter. I'm assuming now in a fixed-wing, it's a little more safe for you.

NORTON: Well, we were a little further away. We didn't get nearly to the point of landing in it. But it certainly was dramatic to see, first of all, what you can still see from the 1980 explosion, and then to realize that the area we were seeing had been building up. It was in some areas about 50 feet higher than it had been just a few days ago with the lava building up inside.

PHILLIPS: Now, Secretary Norton, scientists are saying that they don't expect anything close to what happened in 1980, right, with the devastation that took place when that volcano did erupt and 57 people were killed. Is it -- are they saying that it will not be that bad again, just because once you have an eruption of that magnitude, it just will never be that bad again? Is that how it works?

NORTON: Well, it's Actually just looking at what the indications are right now. What we see today is just some building up within the crater itself. In 1980, the entire side of the mountain was bulging out. And so there was vastly more of a buildup that was occurring in 1980. And we today are seeing basically activity that's only going down to about a mile below the surface. It just doesn't seem to be nearly the buildup.

One other thing, though, that one of the geologists that I talked with today said was that the 1980 earthquake -- or explosion actually built up for about two months, that they were monitoring that as it built up. There is no way we would predict right now, based on what we've seen, that that is what is in any way definitely going to occur.

This may be essentially just something very small that has an impact just in terms of the particulates that cause problems for aircraft.

PHILLIPS: You know, we see these pictures -- and obviously they're pretty amazing, just the sight, the sound, and the smell. And I know a lot of people have been sort of gathering in this eight-mile radius, I understand, you know, buying Cokes and hot dogs and just sitting around and seeing what will happen.

But can you sort of give us, in layman's terms -- for you, for me, for the next door neighbor, for people that live in that area -- the scientific significance by studying this and watching this and taking samples from this volcano, what does it tell us about the environment or the landscape and what it could mean down the road?

NORTON: This tells us, of course, a lot about how volcanoes work. We've studied Mount St. Helens a lot. And so, the scientists have a lot of instruments, very sophisticated equipment and sophisticated knowledge, so that they can study that earthquake.

They have said that right now what the sort of maximum of what they would expect would be that you might see rocks that are a foot across that might be tossed up to three miles. That's very significant. But the good news is that nobody's in those three miles. Nobody lives that close to the volcano.

The ash is the main concern. That causes problems for aircraft. It gets in, it gums up the engines. It has -- it causes problems for people with respiratory concerns, and perhaps traffic visibility.

But again, I want to emphasize, don't see the kinds of potential problems with flooding and landslides that really caused the problems in 1980.

PHILLIPS: You mentioned the technology. From 1980 to now, how has the technology changed? How has it gotten better? What are you able to learn that you couldn't learn in 1980?

NORTON: We have today GPS equipment that lets us pinpoint exactly the location in different parts of the volcano. We have -- we're going to be bringing in, hopefully tomorrow, a remote controlled video camera so we can get a very close view of what's happening at the crater. We have some other more sophisticated seismic equipment than what we've had in the past and the ability to process the information.

PHILLIPS: Gale Norton, secretary of the interior. Thanks for your time today. We appreciate it.

NORTON: Thank you.

PHILLIPS: Want to take you now from Washington where the secretary is back to our Ted Rowlands, who is there on the scene and not far from where Mount St. Helens is letting off steam. How far away are you, Ted?

ROWLANDS: About nine miles away from the volcano. It appears as though we're a lot closer because it's so large. And we really do have a wonderful seat, if you will, for this. And it has been an amazing sight for the -- I guess more than a half hour now. It's been emitting this steam.

For a while there, it looked as though the event had subsided. Now we're seeing a little bit of a cloud, not with the same intensity, starting to appear in the center there. Obviously more of this steam being emitted from the volcano as the folks from the USGS described what is happening is that it's a hot material -- presumably either the gases from the magma inside the volcano or the magma itself -- is coming into contact with water and ice from the glacier inside the volcano. And that is causing this eruption.

They say there is little or no ash in this steam cloud. It appeared as though when it was first coming out that it was dark in nature and that there was most likely some ash. And that was what they first thought. But they believe the ash content is minimal at this point. And what they also believe is that this is not the end, that there will be more to come in terms of eruptions and Mount St. Helens in the near future.

PHILLIPS: Now, Ted, earlier in the interview that you had with the forest service there, they were saying that they're letting folks get as close as about eight-and-a-half. And I was reading that people are actually camping out, they're barbecuing, folks are setting up hot dog stands and selling soda.

I mean, has this turned into a bit of a tourist attraction?

ROWLANDS: Yeah. And a lot of locals who are intimate with this mountain after 1980 and even before, you know, it's a part of their landscape here. They're very interested in it, and they feel a kinship, if you will, to Mount St. Helens.

And they came out -- especially over the weekend it was jam packed. Today, obviously, a work day, so there is less traffic. And the folks this weekend would have loved to have seen this show. They saw smaller emissions, but nothing compared to this.

But yeah, people have come out here, made the pilgrimage. We're about 50 miles north of Portland, 100 south of Seattle. And people from around the region are coming here. A lot of geologists are coming here. There was a geologist on the plane that I was on from Los Angeles coming up here who was very excited to get a firsthand glimpse of this.

And you were talking about the instrumentation around the volcano. This is the most watched active volcano in the continental United States. And geologists from around the country and the world are able to monitor the seismic activity and other readings because of the intense amount of equipment that is up on this mountain. And that will go a long way in helping to predict and learn more about volcanic eruptions.

But as one geologist said, every eruption is different. And it's impossible really to predict intensity and exact timing. But they're getting better at it. And this will go a long way to helping them develop the science around volcanic eruptions.

PHILLIPS: Well, in addition to the science about volcanic eruptions, what about maybe long-term effects or other types of effects that scientists are looking for landscape-wise, environmentally? I know they're watching the duration of this, and they're monitoring the movement of the magma in the lava dome.

But what else is of interest to just the general public that scientists are looking for, Ted?

ROWLANDS: Well, you know, I think that one of the things that they've learned already from this event, when it first started on Friday, it was a steam emission. And the belief was that it was being propelled, if you will, by old magma that was in the system.

But then when they started to document these what they call harmonic tremors, and that is basically magma moving itself up the neck of the volcano -- that happened on Saturday -- that's when the level three alert went out. And their concern now is that they don't know the amount of new magma that's being introduced or that is in the system right now that is going to eventually make its way out or close to it.

There's a sidebar here: There is a chance, according to one geologist, that nothing will happen. It'll get to this point, and then nothing will actually blow. There won't be a major eruption. They think that is a small chance, and they do believe that this magma will manifest itself one way or another.

And they'll learn a lot in terms of being able to measure the amount of magma that was able to form and the pressure that was able to form between now and 1980 when, of course, the catastrophic blast took everybody by surprise. They had predicted a blast, but nowhere near the intensity that happened in 1980 when it occurred there.

The good thing about this situation is they're very confident because most of the mountain is now literally gone because of the '80 blast. The stakes are lower in terms of the possibility of a catastrophic eruption. It just isn't going to happen. And the pressure isn't there, and the material isn't there to create the same effects that we saw in 1980 when 57 people lost their lives when Mount St. Helens last blew.

PHILLIPS: And Willie Scott there with the USGS talking about what they've been able to monitor thus far, Ted. Sort of bring our viewers up to date. It's the boiling -- the water that's boiling underneath -- this melted water from the glacier that is actually boiling and creating this hot water, in addition to these miniearthquakes, I guess, that are taking place at the same time that's causing the magma to move up the lava dome. Is that right?

ROWLANDS: Right. And the earthquakes have not subsided. When the event happened in 1980 and if it was a volcanic eruption involving the magma and actual lava emission, the earthquakes would, according to the geologists, change in nature. They would either subside completely or increase. In 1980, a 5.2 accompanied the big blast. In this case, they say they've been monitoring, and the seismic activity has remained the same throughout this steam emission, meaning that there could be more to come when you have the magma material involved in the actual eruption. What they're saying is happening is this hot material is coming in contact -- either the gases emitted from the magma or the magma itself -- is coming in contact with the glacier ice, which is already present and water. And that's what's producing this immense steam emission, which has slowed down.

It has -- from a layman's point of view, it seems to be coming to an end. It is nowhere near what we saw about a half an hour ago when it was billowing out of the center of the volcano.

PHILLIPS: I'm thinking there's an alert system in place. Sort of like the terrorist alert system -- I'm not making any kind of comparison at all. But you know, it's the same type of like level one, level two. And this actually reached an alert level to three, is that right?

ROWLANDS: There are three levels, and we're at level three. It's -- level three was put into place on Saturday when it was determined that this wasn't just a steam emission, that magma was involved, and new magma was involved, meaning that the intensity of the blast is there. The ingredients were all formed. And the definition of a level three is that a volcanic eruption is imminent, and that is what we've been under since Saturday. It was at that point that they increased the radius for people to be cleared out to about eight miles. People were taken away if a place called the Johnston Observatory Area, which is about five miles, and has a direct shot, viewing shot into the center of the volcano. Those folks were evacuated and brought out to a safer distance, just to be safe, to make sure even though they don't believe that even, in fact, those people were necessarily in harm's way, they just wanted to make sure that everybody was at a safe distance.

PHILLIPS: All right, Ted Rowlands there, about nine miles out from Mount St. Helens, continuing to monitor this story for us. Level three, Ted explained to us. One, two, three, this being of course the highest. Nothing compared to the eruption back in 1980, according to seismologist, also scientists there at the USGS.

On the line with us now, another seismologist, Bill Steele, with the University of Washington. Pleasure to have you with us. I'm curious, how long have you been at the University of Washington?

BILL STEELE, SEISMOLOGIST, UNIV. OF WASHINGTON: Well, since 1993, so I missed the fireworks in early '80s.

PHILLIPS: Right, OK, so you missed the 1980. Looking at what we're seeing today, put it into perspective for us, and why it's something that is of interest, why you're watching it, what you hope to learn from this steam and ash coming up from this volcano?

STEELE: Well, that's a lot. Overall, looking at the seismicity of the last week, it truly is unprecedented. The only comparable period of time is the pre-1980 buildup to the big eruption on May 18th of 1980. So in that sense, we really have a good basis for concern, that this is more than kind of a normal fluctuation of the volcano by far.

The dome-building eruptions that occurred after the big eruption in 1980 did not have that much activity associated with it.

Now, the steam, the explosion that we saw today wasn't accompanied by a seismic signal. It was pretty shallow and not well connected to the ground, and we expect to see these periodically as things continue to warm up on the dome.

PHILLIPS: So you talk about concerns. Talk to me more about the concerns that you have.

STEELE: Well, the concern and the uncertainty that we're facing now is that we're not sure about the nature of the chemical composition of the magma that is involved in driving this thing. And the big question is whether we're dealing with old, degassed magma, or fresher magma that could behave like, well, like a bottle of champagne shook up -- you don't see the bubbles until you've popped the cork off or let the pressure off, and then in it outgasses. And in the case of magma it can foam and outgas very volatile compounds that can cause explosive eruptions and throw projectiles great distances.

PHILLIPS: So if it's hot, degassed lava, then that could cause a massive explosion?

STEELE: Well, it's the hot stuff with the gas intact, that's the dangerous stuff. It has been sitting around since 1989 or so and lost a lot of its gases, then we might just see an extrusion and building of the lava dome without a lot of fireworks.

PHILLIPS: Now, Bill, take us beyond what we're seeing and what we're talking about and is of interest at this moment, and look down the road at what this -- what could this landscape look like 10 years from now? Let's say this volcano continues to erupt, continues to have, you know, cracks in the crater. Could this eventually sort of part ways and dissipate, or will it always be here? How will it affect the landscape?

STEELE: Well, that's a great question. And it's rare that anyone thinks that far down the road, is it?

PHILLIPS: I'm looking for a way to stretch here. I'm...

STEELE: But it's great. And it does put it in perspective. Now, traditionally, Mount St. Helens would have a very explosive eruption and go through a 100-year period of kind of frequent eruptions, kind of rebuilding itself, in part, often. I mean, the edifice that was blown off in 1980 was built up from previous eruptions. We could be moving into, depending on the magmas down there and if they can work there way from the large magma chambers deeper under the volcano, we could have a rebuilding and we could say see a Mount st. Helens with a top again. We could add thousands of feet to the edifice of the volcano. I mean, these things are all possible. Then again, we could have more -- some more explosive eruptions as well. It's an evolving landscape and it's a very active volcano.

PHILLIPS: OK, I'm sitting here racking my brain, and I may make a complete idiot of myself here on national television. But was it a volcano that created, was it Santorini in Italy? Am I right? Am I remembering my history right? I'm keeping my fingers crossed right now.

STEELE: There are numerous, very explosive volcanoes that behave similarly, and there are correlations the Italian volcanoes and the Cascade volcanoes. You know, we could think one of the most dramatic instances was the Pompeii disaster...

PHILLIPS: There we go.

STEELE: Where Mount Vesuvius had a pyroclastic flowdown that killed all the residents of Herculean (ph) and Pompeii. So these explosive volcanoes can be extremely dangerous.

PHILLIPS: So, yes, I think that must have been what I thinking then was Pompeii. I was sort of close.

STEELE: No, there are others, too. So I mean -- yes.

But so now we're not looking at -- for one thing, we don't have the cap of the mountain on anymore. We don't have a bulge on the whole north face of the mountain that could lead to a catastrophic sector collapse and lateral blasts as we had in 1980, but if fresh magmas do move in -- and we're not seeing that yet. We're seeing this all be quite shallow. But if we see that kind of plug between the top part of the volcano and the deeper magma chambers begin to move aside or get pushed out, then we will be reassessing the scope of the kinds of eruptions that may be ahead.

Right now, the most likely thing are a continuation of these steam explosions, and eventually we expect to see magma at the surface, and if it's gaseous magma, we may see explosions and some pyroclastic floes. If it's degassed magma, we may just see dome building and extrusion with some minor explosions, so we're watching and waiting and watching very carefully.

PHILLIPS: OK, Bill, now I'm really getting historic here. I love my producers. That's why I love Sonya so much. I'm not crazy. She brought me a layout of Santorini, Greece, talking about the eruption of Santorini in Greece in 1650 B.C. It was one of the largest, about seven cubic miles, talking about the magma, when it erupted. And I'm kind of reading this as I'm going out loud. I guess -- OK, I see here, the volcano collapsed, it produced -- ash fell over a large area in the eastern Mediterranean in Turkey. That eruption probably caused the end of the civilization there on the island of Crete.

So I guess, OK, if as you've studied this volcano and how it's been behaving in the past decades, you know, looking way down the road, I mean, is this an area that people might come and visit decades from now and think, oh, boy, at one time this was...

STEELE: A beautiful forest.

PHILLIPS: A beautiful place that scientists visited in an area called Washington.

STEELE: Yes, well you know, what can I say, we do have explosive volcanoes, and you could look at Mount Musama (ph) in Oregon or Crater Lake, that blew most of its edifice away in a catastrophic explosion. These are extremely rare events, but they can happen.

Mount St. Helens is about 50,000 years old, and it's been extremely active. It's kind of a young teenager of the cascade volcanoes. It is -- it has been having eruptions every couple of hundred years, and then a series of eruptions following the big -- the first, so we kind of expect an ongoing sequence like that, building and then occasional explosive eruptions that may remove some of the edifice.

But it's always a possibility, I guess, that of something more catastrophic happening. Right now, we see no sighs of the kind of magmatic involvement that would be necessary to produce one of these really cataclysmic explosions.

PHILLIPS: All right, Bill Steele, from the University of Washington, thank you so much.

STEELE: Well, thank you for having me.

PHILLIPS: Yes, it was very interesting. And thank you for helping me with my history there. Hopefully we'll get a chance to talk more as we continue to follow this, Bill. Thank you so much.

STEELE: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 4, 2004 - 12:59   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: If you are just tuning in, the volcano blows. You are looking at live pictures right now of Mount St. Helens, where a stream of steam is shooting high into the sky right now. Mount St. Helens released more of this steam not long ago, within the past 30 minutes, following several days of tremors and low- level earthquakes that have raised many fears among scientists that the mountain may blow at any moment.
Now what you're seeing is live pictures of the steam shooting into the air. Our Ted Rowlands is there live on the scene, picking up the story for us. We've had a number of correspondents in the past week-and-a-half or so.

Ted, can you hear me OK?

ROWLANDS: Yeah, I can, Kyra.

And we have with us Bonnie Lippitt, who is with the forest service here and has been out here since the beginning. This seems to be a larger event than we saw on Friday, in terms of the thickness of it. What's your opinion of this? And we've just been listening to the folks from the USGS -- is this it?

BONNIE LIPPITT, U.S. FORESTRY SERVICE: Well, this is one it. The scientists have been indicating that there was the potential for steam and/or steam and ash explosions that could occur at any time. And this is a steam and ash event that has occurred. It does appear at this point that it is bigger than the event on Friday. And it does involve not only steam, but ash.

And right now, given the prevailing winds, it looks like the plume is slowly drifting out to the northeast. It looks like the plume is continuing...

LIPPITT: ... It does appear at this point that it is bigger than the other event on Friday. And it does involve not only steam but ash.

And right now, given the prevailing winds, it looks like the plume is slowly drifting out to the northeast. It looks like the plume is continuing. What we saw on Saturday morning was a slight puff, and then it dissipated. This right now is continuing.

So it's probably been going now for 10, 15 minutes.

TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Fifteen minutes, yes. The biggest concern at this point is aviation, I would assume, because of the consistency of the ash if it is actually intermixed in this steam.

Has the air space been restricted or closed down or what's the situation?

LIPPITT: Two things with regard to that. There was an air space restriction that was put into effect yesterday. The forest service requested the Federal Aviation Administration to do a general closure around the crater. And that was mainly for general commercial aviation.

I did hear on the radio as I was driving here and witnessing the event in the car on the way to the stop here, the radio transmission, they have initiated the call down list. And FAA is one of the first folks on the call down list, very much for the reason that this can pose a threat to commercial aviation.

ROWLANDS: Now, in 1980 when Mount St. Helens blew, a good portion of the actual mountain blew with it, and it was an event which also associated with a 5.2 earthquake.

What we're looking at now, is it in the classic sense an eruption? Or what are the differences between that catastrophic eruption and what we're seeing now, which seems fairly benign and safe for folks at least in our area?

LIPPITT: Well, you asked if this is an eruption. And based on what the scientists tell us, this classifies as an eruption.

But obviously, it's on a scale way below what occurred on May 18, 1980. There has been some ash ejected, and there's been some steam ejected. I haven't heard whether there's been any lava witnessed on the surface. And we haven't heard what the earthquake activity or the seismic record has been associated with this.

But yes, this does count as an eruption. It's just a very small one at this point, even though it looks very dramatic.

ROWLANDS: Could it be a precursor to a larger eruption in -- which would also carry with it magma or lava when it comes out of the volcano?

LIPPITT: The scientists have been indicating all along that there could be many events of this size. There could be an event that's slightly larger. The magma may make to it the surface; it may not. So it could be a precursor, and at the very same time, it may not be.

ROWLANDS: And right now what they're going to be watching, I guess, is the duration, really, of this event. And it doesn't seem, like you mentioned, to be slowing down by any stretch of the imagination.

LIPPITT: They'll be watching the duration of this event. There'll be, of course, eyes glued on seismographs that give the seismic or earthquake activity that's occurring. And again, we've been talking over the last couple of days about the fact that harmonic tremors often indicate the movement of magma. So they'll be looking to see if harmonic tremors are involved. And at some point, they'll be trying to determine whether or not magma has actually reached the surface of the lava dome and is -- is now on the surface.

ROWLANDS: The analogy of letting off steam was used earlier, like this was a pressure cooker situation. And this -- will this event sort of help alleviate the pressure and maybe prevent a larger event?

LIPPITT: The pattern that we've seen is that the pressure builds up and then there's an event, and then there's sort of a quiet period of seismicity. And then the pressure builds up again.

And it all depends on what's happening under the volcano in the magma body under the lava dome, whether this system will continue to repressurize or not. I don't think we know that at this point.

ROWLANDS: And when the level three was issued on Saturday basically saying that an event was imminent, an eruption was imminent, is this what we're talking about? Was this what the warning was about or did it also encompass a larger event, which is still a possibility?

LIPPITT: Yes, and yes. That's the short answer.

Yes, this is the kind of event that they have been talking about. And as we've just been discussing, this could be the end of it. This could be the start of many such events of this scale. This could be a precursor to a slightly larger event should magma arrive on the surface and be a little more explosive.

ROWLANDS: And really, the only concern now is the air quality in terms of aircraft and then also if there is ash, is it safe to say that it would make its way to the ground eventually or could it be absorbed and be pushed up into the atmosphere with the steam?

LIPPITT: Some of the ash would likely make its way to the ground, whether it drops out closer to the volcano or whether the winds and such are able to carry it farther.

That's why the forest service, for precautionary measures, pulled people back a few miles from the volcano itself. We're all back on the perimeter, about seven to eight miles from the volcano, with the idea that the steam and ash events would be, you know, fairly small, the ash would drop out. And the ash reaching the ground might be a light dusting.

Of course, all of this is subject to change. The geologists are continuing to evaluate the situation. And we're continuing to talk closely with them and make whatever changes in management that we need to, to respond appropriately for the safety of the public.

ROWLANDS: All right. Bonnie Lippitt is with us talking us through this with the forest service. It's your job to really make sure that everything is safe in the park area and for folks that want to come up here and see this dramatic event.

And you feel fairly confident that the eight-mile radius which has been cleared is enough, especially for something like this.

LIPPITT: We feel confident now because we've worked closely with the U.S. Geological Survey. And they indicate that this is a safe position to be.

Should conditions change and they indicate that it's not a safe position, we would take appropriate measures to move people back farther. They're not telling us that at this point.

But believe me, everyone takes the safety of the public very, very seriously. This is always the foremost question in our minds.

ROWLANDS: I don't know if, Kyra, you can see it or it comes across...

KYRA PHILLIPS, ANCHOR: That's amazing.

ROWLANDS: ... over the air. But it seems as though, in terms of the intensity of the release point, if you will, has widened, or the area of the release point may have widened a bit. It seems like it's coming up maybe a little bit wider breadth or maybe it's just the way the wind has maybe died down at this -- at this juncture.

PHILLIPS: Ted, I've got a question for you, Ted.

ROWLANDS: Definitely, it's not slowing down. Yes?

PHILLIPS: Ted, ask the guest there...

LIPPITT: It's still going here. And it looks like it's going, and it looks a lot darker.

ROWLANDS: Go ahead, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: That was my question. As you look at that -- as we look as that tight shot, there's -- there's part of the steam and the ash, it's a dark cloud. The other part is white.

I'm definitely not a scientist. So can you explain why the different -- right now we've got a tight shot on it. Part is like black; the other part is white. Can you explain the technicality there?

ROWLANDS: Well, the question here, Bonnie, is quickly, the difference between -- we're seeing dark and light areas. It would presumably be the contents of ash, would it not, in the steam emission? Would that be accurate?

LIPPITT: That's right. That's -- generally if it's a white cloud, they're thinking it's mostly water vapor and steam, but when you get the dark cloud, that means ash is involved.

ROWLANDS: OK. Bonnie Lippitt has to scoot. She's being pulled away here by her colleagues with the forest service.

Thanks for talking to us and talking us through the initial portion of this event, which could, I guess, go on indefinitely.

LIPPITT: Yes, it could.

ROWLANDS: You just never know.

LIPPITT: It could go for a long time.

ROWLANDS: We're already at about 20 minutes. And the Friday event was about 20 minutes in duration. But this doesn't look like it's slowing down by any stretch of the imagination.

All right. Thanks, Bonnie.

LIPPITT: You're welcome.

ROWLANDS: I know you have to run here.

LIPPITT: Yes.

ROWLANDS: Kyra, but it is really amazing. I don't know if it translates or not on camera, but it is really amazing to sit here and watch nature at work and see this billowing effect come out of the middle of this volcano, which has really been -- seemed so placid and peaceful this morning when we arrived here, early this morning when the sun came up.

PHILLIPS: It's pretty incredible, Ted. We're able to get some pretty tight shots in addition to a wider shot with you. I mean, it's pretty -- it's beautiful. And it's interesting to watch how it develops.

We're going to ask you to stand by, Ted.

We want to bring in our Jacqui Jeras now.

One thing that Ted did talk about, there are a number of concerns about the plume there with the ash and the steam. And Jacqui, you can talk about sort of the wind shifts here and how far you think the winds at this time is going to push this plume in certain directions.

Obviously, a major concern, as Ted said, to aviation because of the thickness, particularly with the ash.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Right. Absolutely.

I know there were some restrictions that were put in place yesterday for aviation. I believe it was 13,000 feet and below, you couldn't fly at that level. So that doesn't affect the commercial industry, really. It's mostly the general aviation, some of the smaller planes that tend to fly.

But that can get caught in the engines and cause engine failure. So certainly it's going to be some problems for aviation. As for the wind dispersion, the prevailing winds are mostly easterly. We're going to see a little bit of variation today.

What's going on is there's a big ridge of high pressure in place. And so winds earlier today were a little bit more coming in from the northeast. Now they're a little bit more easterly. And we're expecting them to shift, then, a little bit more southeasterly later on this afternoon and this evening.

The good news is that overall, the upper level and lower level winds in this area are relatively light. So that will reduce dispersion a little bit.

Also -- it also depends on how significant this is going to be. I think if it's maybe a level two or a level three it's not going to go all that far.

We've got a keyhole animation that I want to show you that kind of gives you a perspective of where this could be going. As the winds are coming in from the east, that means that the steam and the smoke and the ash is going to be heading in a westerly direction. And that's actually better news because that's a much less populated area.

Of course, Portland sits down no the south and west of there. And we also have Seattle up to the north and west. And so Seattle would be more affected by this than Portland, even though it is farther away. It's about 90 miles away.

There you can see the animation going into the crater. And giving you perspective. This will be the direction that it's coming to, then. The ash would be blowing in this direction. There you can see the northerly view of the volcano there.

But the dispersion hopefully will stay relatively light and should be heading toward the ocean and moving away from many of the more populated areas.

Also another thing to think about, too, Kyra, is what kind of problems this could cause to people. Respiratory problems. You get that ash in the atmosphere. People who have respiratory problems and young children also don't want to be outside if there's ashes coming their way at all.

I also understand it can cause some damage to your car that if you leave that ash sitting on your car. You may get a little bit of a dust from this today, but it doesn't look like it should be anything widespread.

Of course we're going to have to wait and see how significant this does become. But again, Kyra, moving off to the west will be the direction that the ash and smoke will be going.

PHILLIPS: Moving west. All right. Jacqui Jeras from the weather center there, thank you so much.

Now somebody -- obviously we have Ted Rowlands there on the scene. Kimberly Osias has been there at Mount St. Helens for the past couple of days.

But somebody who actually got very close to that lava dome, definitely got close to the crater and spent some time side by side with scientists there at Mount St. Helens, our own Miles O'Brien.

Now we're covering the X Prize. So we want to -- we want to keep our eyes focused on the prize there, Miles. A lot of stuff happening there in the Mojave Desert. But if you could talk Mount St. Helens with us here.

We're looking at a live shot of the ash and the steam. Why don't you take us back to the time that you were there and with the scientists and why something like this is so interesting to them and why they study this volcano?

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Kyra. Let's take our eye off the prize for a moment and we'll talk about Mount St. Helens.

You know, this is a volcano that is so heavily instrumented and watched and carefully calibrated and focused on by the U.S. Geological Service, the University of Washington, that it really amounts to a great scientific test bed. It is a laboratory, if you will, if you're into volcanism. There is probably no volcano on this planet that has more instrumentation, has been focused on this much.

It's the most active volcano in the lower 48 states in the United States of America. And it has all kinds of instrumentation on top there. I had the occasion to fly on top of that lava dome a few years ago and spend a little time with those scientists, breathing that thick sulfur steam that comes through it. It's always steaming a little bit.

And getting a sense of how they measure every last little movement of that dome. Giving a sense of whether the crack moves ever so slightest much by using various types of metal tapes and feed that information down to a base damp. Laser beams which allow them to point to a fixed point and know if that dome is moving in a specific way.

This is how they're able to come up with these very specific warnings that we've been hearing. Because there's so -- so much instrumentation there and so many indications of the seismicity, what the earthquakes are doing, what the magma flow is doing beneath.

And that gives them that ability to tell us at least a bracket of time as to when things might get really serious for Mount St. Helens. There's still a fair amount of black science to it. They still have to kind of do some guesswork. You can't predict earthquakes, and you cannot predict specifically when volcanoes are going to happen.

It's a lot different than, for example, watching those hurricanes barrel into Florida, with the amount of predictive capability we have for them. So it's interesting.

You know, we should put one thing in perspective here, Kyra. Back in 1980 when Mount St. Helens erupted, first of all, the level and the frequency of seismicity occurred over a couple of months leading up to it. And it literally blew a thousand feet off the top of Mount St. Helens. Tremendous force. This so-called pyroclastic (ph) flow, which is rocks and dust and lava, it went down that mountain in an avalanche that literally traveled at 300 miles an hour as it got started, slowed down to about 100 miles an hour. And just absolutely deforested that area around there where that avalanche occurred.

The ash plumes covered huge, huge parts of the United States. Some of it landing even in Oklahoma, for example, causing all kinds of hazards to aviation.

And, of course, 57 people died in the course of that because even though there were all these warnings, no one really had a sense of how much power and force and how quickly that huge pyroclastic floe would occur.

So what we're seeing here appeals in comparison. For one thing, it's already blown its top. In our lifetime, it's not going to have the stuff to make a repeat of what happened in 1980. And secondly we haven't seen the level of seismicity or magma flowing beneath there that would rival what happened in 1980.

The other thing to remember here is that, given the scale of what can happen, the parameters of what's possible, this is an area that's not very heavily populated. And as a result, as long as people kind of sit back and watch this, it is really a scientific spectacle more than anything.

Yes, there are concerns about people breathing in that gas. You don't want to do that. You want to make sure the airplanes don't fly through it. The FAA is doing just that as we speak. It's not a huge air traffic hub that part of the world, so it's not a huge, huge issue. But nevertheless they want to keep people out of there.

So what it really amounts to for these scientists is a tremendous opportunity to sort of hone their skills and see how good those predictions that they've been working on, looking at St. Helens for all these years, how good those predictions really are.

And I don't know if you know this, but right beside me here -- Kyra, we're going to hope to get her out here -- is Kimberly Osias. Who is covering the X Prize for our news source affiliates. And as soon as we get her out here, she's going to add some of her insights for us, because she was just there, as you know.

But Kyra, I think the thing we have to keep in mind here is that it is more of a spectacle than it is a hazard to human life. That's an important point here as people watch it.

PHILLIPS: Well, Miles, you had the chance -- we're going to get this video right now. Maybe we can bring it side by side, because even though these pictures are pretty amazing, it's even more amazing when you're there scaling the volcano.

And I know that you did that. I know you took a helicopter in and actually made to it the crater. And I know Kimberly was there. I don't know how close she actually got. Probably not as close as you did.

But as we work to get that video, can you just tell us what it was like personally to actually scale this volcano and to spend time with these scientists, what you saw, what you felt, what it smelled like?

I mean, give us sort of that feeling of what it was like to be right there on the volcano.

O'BRIEN: Well, you know, Kyra, how I feel about flying in all kinds of things. Helicopters, airplanes and maybe one day if I'm lucky a spaceship. But that's not what we're talking about here today.

I've got to tell you, I've never been more scared in an aircraft than I was in that helicopter as it tried to land on that lava dome. In the midst of that crater, right in the center of the crater, is that bulging lava dome. And the wind just swirls around that crater.

We couldn't land. We tried six attempts and each time we were literally blown off the dome as we tried to do it.

We finally landed at the base of the crater, forcing us to scale about 950 feet above to the top, where we met the U.S. Geological Survey scientists who had landed earlier before the swirl was so great and didn't have to do that hike.

All the while we're hiking up this terrible lava -- hardened lava which amounts to crusty rock. Very, very challenging hiking. We lost a sound tech along the way, who had passed out. He had to be choppered down the mountain. I ultimately was carrying the sound gear up there on this hike.

We get to the top. And it -- the whole way there's the most rotting stench of eggs that you can imagine. It is just an overwhelming smell. And that's something you don't really get here.

And it does make you think about the hazards that we encounter as we do our job, just sucking in this sulfur dioxide and any other -- it's a witch's brew of gases just coming out of, literally, the center of the earth.

It's -- it really a window on the haute molten core of our planet. And it reminds us how this planet was formed. And what you're seeing here has a lot to do with creating the atmosphere we live in. Without this volcanic activity, we wouldn't be able to enjoy the nice air that we breathe right now, if you get in the grand scheme of things.

Kimberly Osias is laced up beside me right now, Kyra. And she just -- she literally just flew down from St. Helens, as you watch us.

We were just talking about how, you know, you come down here to cover the X Prize and, of course, the volcano will erupt. KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

O'BRIEN: But when you talk to people there as you were there, the fear level ratcheted up ever so much. I'm not -- I don't want to overstate it, because it's not like they've evacuated towns there.

But the scientists who have to get close were given it a fairly wide berth, weren't they?

OSIAS: They were indeed. You know what, Miles? One thing is I said, you know, "You guys can get on a chopper and get out." And they know that, which is a little bit -- and again, I don't want to overstate it either because, you know, in looking at it you can see that the enormous plume of steam, ash and smoke. And obviously, the biggest concern safety wise are for respiratory concerns at this juncture, really.

But it is -- it is a bit amazing to see. And you know, talking about that warm magma moving underneath the dome, you know, they were saying, really, that they think the volume is increasing on that.

And the fact that we didn't see anything yesterday really is a bit ominous that something may -- may be coming that is more substantial.

O'BRIEN: So every day sort of the stakes get a little higher in that way.

OSIAS: That's exactly right.

O'BRIEN: I used this analogy before. You think of a pot sort of simmering on the stove and you've got the lid on the pot. And eventually, it kind of just -- enough pressure builds up inside there that it overflows.

OSIAS: That's right.

O'BRIEN: So you've got this simmering pot. This volcano has been simmering, you know, ever since before 1980.

OSIAS: That's right.

O'BRIEN: Very active. And what happens is over time, the pressure inside gets great enough to kind of blow the lid here and there.

And the question becomes -- I guess, where it gets really tricky is when so much pressure builds up. In other words, the dome becomes so strong as to contain a lot of pressure that you could get a real explosive kind of eruption. That's where it gets very dicey on the prediction.

OSIAS: That's exactly right. It has to go somewhere. I mean, these geologists have used an analogy much like a Coke can. That you know, these bubbles sort of build up and brew. And exactly, as you said, that sort of veritable witch's brew underneath. And then it has to go somewhere.

And talking about where it's going, my guess, Miles, is there is a glacial collar -- a glacial collar behind the dome. And that, there's about a 600-foot expanse where the first sort of eruption of steam came out of. And my guess is that's sort of the path of least resistance, if you will. So my guess is that's what's happening as we're looking at these pictures live now.

O'BRIEN: Yes. There was obviously a weak spot there.

I do recall in 1980, immediately prior to the big eruption -- of course, there had been all kinds of warnings about it. But there was a very significant earthquake immediately prior. I think approaching magnitude five. And that might have just set the stage for creating just that kind of weakening that you just described.

There was a bulge in the mountain at the time. And that bulge just gave away with such an explosive force that it literally blew off 1,000 feet of that mountain. And it's hard to imagine what that was like to be anywhere near it.

OSIAS: That's exactly right. I mean, it is -- until you actually see it and you think a third of that mountain has been blown off and when you look at it you can't tell now.

But you do this sort of visual of putting your fingers up, much like a grade school child does and making sort of the here's the church, there's the steeple type of thing. And you realize that a third of it blew off, the whole north face there. It's -- it's pretty remarkable.

O'BRIEN: I do recall when I was there a few years ago when we flew were flying the chopper up toward the mountain.

Still a tremendous amount of evidence. It probably has dissipated over time. But you still old trees down. You still see evidence of the force of that eruption and that pyroclastic floe, that hot flow of lava and gases and rocks...

OSIAS: Yes.

O'BRIEN: ... that just moved down that mountain, 300 miles an hour at some points. And it just knocked every tree down in its wake. It's just hard to imagine that kind of force of nature.

OSIAS: It's a stark dichotomy. I mean, you see these trees that literally are lying like matchsticks. Some still standing there and just absolutely dead.

And then juxtaposed with that, a ways away you see very vibrant life burgeoning, coming back to -- you know, to life as a force just trying to rebuild, because a lot of timber companies have done replanting and have been actively involved in that.

But it is a very graphic reminder, as you were saying, Miles, of the fact that this is, you know -- nature is alive; it is moving. It is an ecosystem that's evolving. And there's so much that we don't know.

And even these scientists out there, I think, you know, there is -- they're trying to sort of run these analyses and figure out the best guesses. But nobody really knows, because you're dealing with a very fickle element, Mother Nature.

PHILLIPS: Kyra, you know, when I met those scientists up on top of the dome, I was so impressed with their honest to goodness courage...

PHILLIPS: Miles, we've got the video. We actually have the video now of you.

O'BRIEN: You have it?

PHILLIPS: Yes, yes. We found the video. Talk about this scientist that you were with and tell us about this equipment.

O'BRIEN: I was with a guy by the name of -- one of the lead scientists was a guy by the name of Dan Deriso (ph), who's still there at the USGS.

And one of the things they told us, almost from the outset, was there was a scientist who, in the process of doing his job in 1980, lost his life.

And these guys, yes, they take calculated risk and they have choppers nearby. But they are truly committed individuals. The term hero is bandied about an awful lot. But this is for real.

Take a look. These are the seismometers that they put inside the dome, giving a sense of the flow of the magma, whether there's any earthquake activity underway.

Of course, they don't want to be up there all the time. And so one of the keys in all this -- there's some of the laser -- that's not unlike what you see on a surveying crew, essentially giving them the capability to really detect the most minute kind of movement of that dome.

And that is sent down -- there's that wild helicopter ride. I'll never forget that one. That was something. And a little bit of snowfall there at the time at about 8,600 feet there.

Then all of that, as the scientists landed successfully on the dome, all of that is sent down via modem. So they can sit there in the relative safe confines of their facility at the USGS Cascades Observatory and track this thing using that capability.

They go up there and check the instruments every now and then, but in this case, it's nice to have that remote control capability. So...

PHILLIPS: Amazing pictures.

O'BRIEN: ... that's it from here now, Kyra. We're watching two stories at once: X Prize and now Mount St. Helens. Kimberly Osias and Miles O'Brien here in, of all places, Mojave talking about Mount St. Helens.

PHILLIPS: You guys are double duty. You're doing the X Prize and both of you doing Mount St. Helens. It's perfect.

Miles, we're going to check back in with you for both of these stories, as this one continues to break.

We're going to take you now live to a news conference that's taking place with the USGS.

If you are just tuning in, Mount St. Helens, it blew. And we're covering it live. This is the news conference right now with scientists.

Let's listen in.

WILLIE SCOTT, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: ... wave detected from the microphones out there. What we think it is, is we think something quite hot has moved up and is in contact with the glacier or with very shallow water around the glacier.

And basically what you're seeing is boiling of steam from boiling of this -- of the water from the melting ice. That there's very little, if any, ash in the plume.

And what's -- what's interesting is that the earthquakes that we are having are just continuing right through this. So there's -- there's many little earthquakes occurring, which is probably related to the magma moving up. And what you see in the cloud is the interaction of that with melt water from the glacier.

So this is pretty good evidence that -- that we do have something hot in the system that's poking its way up. And it's now gotten either at the surface or really very close to it.

And that there are a couple of possibilities that, you know, what we may see first is if this is hot degassed lava plug coming up, that it may form a little dome or perhaps a little spine over that vent area. Or it could go to, you know, more explosive kind of events with ash and pumice.

So that's what we're watching very closely, to see if there's the onset of that kind of activity. And again, it's fortunate that it's a clear day and that we have a good view of the mountain.

And the estimates that they made from looking at it from CBO, as we did on Saturday, is that it probably only got to about a thousand feet above the rim, that highest part of the steam cloud.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have you had any evidence at all that the dome itself has changed dramatically?

SCOTT: Well, of this event? No, we can't see, because everything is steamy. One thing I didn't get to this morning is this observation of this intense deformation that was occurring around the area of the cracked -- where the glacier was being lifted up.

That observation late yesterday, we estimated that that had gone up a total of about 100 feet over the last few days and was becoming more intensely cracked. And again, what probably has happened is whatever was pushing suddenly this morning got to the position where it could be in contact with a lot of water and cause this -- this boiling.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Again, the lack of -- not allowing (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

SCOTT: Well, I -- yes, that would be interesting to know. You know, the helicopters in the air should be able to tell if the flow over the two waterfalls, Lewitt (ph) and Steppe (ph), has increased appreciable.

But again, the -- the rate of melting and boiling is certainly going to be releasing water. But again, it's not going to be of a magnitude that's going to cause dangerous, you know, floods far downstream.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Willie, is this is some form of a release of -- of some heat or what not, have we seen the seismic activity level off? Did that give you any clear indication at all?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We have to repeat questions.

SCOTT: Oh. Oh, sorry. Can you repeat the question?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If this, as he indicated, was a release of some hot liquid of some nature, the melting of the glaciers, you know, ground water -- ground water at the surface, and that's all it was, is we see a tailing off of the seismicity here in the next several hours, would that give us any clear indication for what's to come?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What the question is is if this was simply a blowing over of ground water on the surface and we see a tailing off of seismicity, does that give us any indication of what's coming?

SCOTT: And the answer is I think -- I think all options are open. You know, seismicity could intensify. It could, you know, stay level and go down a bit. But we're going to be on some sort of a roller coaster.

And it's this timing of -- of events now is really -- you know, all we can do is just observe them. And look for any signs that -- that might tell us, you know, that something is -- is accelerating.

You know, we might see that in the seismic rate, but the -- you know, we lowered this GPS unit on the dome yesterday, late yesterday afternoon, and started receiving data from it. And that may tell us, may give us a point within the crater to say whether the greater dome is involved in this movement, and that may be significant in knowing the size of the -- size of what's at depth.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The question is, if the dome was involved, would that increase the size of the flow?

SCOTT: Yes, it would increase that the plug is larger than we would estimate from just that small area on the back of the dome.

QUESTION: Take one question from the phone bridge. Go ahead with your follow-up.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What would the level of explosivity if the dome is involved rather than the vent hole?

SCOTT: Well, it might just mean that we're dealing with a larger volume, and that may mean that either a larger volume extrusion would occur or a larger volume explosive eruption would occur.

QUESTION: Question from the phone bridge. OK, we'll go on with the ones in the room.

Wait a minute. Wait a minute, let's be orderly about this -- let's take yours, then yours.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The question was, given the various options, scenarios, how are we going to know which option was active at the time?

SCOTT: The best thing is watch and see what happens. That's 100 percent correct. But yes, I don't -- I just wouldn't -- you know, I think a logical sequence is that something fairly solid comes up first, and then it's just another part of the plug and maybe a weakening part of the plug, and if explosive eruptions are going to follow, it would blow that out of there, move that out of there, break it up, blow it out of there, and then go on to a more continuous kind of eruption.

QUESTION: Can we tell yet how much ash is involved?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can we tell how much ash is involved here?

SCOTT: No, the views from people looking at from a distance, it doesn't appear that much ash, if any, is coming out. If this, in fact, is hot material getting in contact with water and boiling it, the environment is so wet that, unless there's a real strong jetting, particulates won't get up in the air. It looks like is by far steam.

QUESTION: Wait a minute. I'm sorry. We'll have to take questions in some sort of order. I believe you were next.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are we drawing any conclusions from the length of this particular event?

SCOTT: Well, I think they're quite different events. That was a pressurization and then an explosion, and basically, what we're seeing here is boiling going on with hot material has contacted the ice. If it's slowing off, what it maybe means is that that boiling process removed heat from that area, cooled things down to the point where there's not a lot of interaction between hot material and the water, but if that keeps moving up and opens cracks, water can get in, you know, it's likely that we'll continue to see this kind of steaming activity.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If Dr. Scott feels this is unprecedented, will it be more difficult for us to predict the next activity in the future?

SCOTT: I don't know that I used the term unprecedented. It is a different kind of event than what we've seen over the past few days, because again, it's rather than pressurization and explosion, we're seeing something hot in contact with the snow and ice and causing the boiling.

Yes, I was meaning in a very short term sense, yes. Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's have you, and then you.

SCOTT: How confident is it that the magma is degassed based on what we're seeing?

QUESTION: It's -- I was thinking of something else. Could you repeat it? I'm sorry.

Well, I think what's leading the show, that's probably degassed, because it's up at shallow level, but what we're more concerned about is what's following behind it. And I think over the past few days, we become more concerned from the gas measurements and so forth that there is gas in the magma. And the exact content is -- we just can't judge. But the suggestion is that there's certainly gas there, and that somewhere along the line we expect an explosive eruption. It's the scale of that that's difficult to tell at this point.

PHILLIPS: Scientist Willie Scott with the USGS, there briefing reporters about Mount St. Helens letting out steam not long ago. We just have been following this for about the last half an hour or so. As we've been reporting, Willie Scott sort of getting technical there and explaining why we're seeing this right now, and he explained it's a boiling of melted water from the glacier underneath, and they know that that's what's letting off the steam, because there's very little ash that's actually in the air. There is a little bit of ash and steam, but it's mostly the steam from this boiling water, and that there have been these mini-earthquakes due to the magma mixing up down there and sort of working its way up the lava dome.

Now he said, if indeed this kind of -- it is hot, degassed lava coming up, then it could be more explosive, and that's why they're concerned and they continue to monitor this by the second right now.

Fortunately, Willie Scott saying it's a clear day. They're able to see it without a problem and monitor it without any problems.

Gale Norton, secretary of interior, actually got a chance to fly with Willie Scott and tour Mount St. Helens recently. She's been reporting to us on what she saw and the experience. Pleasure to have you, Secretary Norton.

Why don't you bring us up to date from your trip right now, the conversations you've been having, and tell us what it was like to get in that helicopter and fly around that volcano.

GALE NORTON, SECY. OF INTERIOR: We flew in an area that's probably about the same as where the cloud is right now. We were in a fixed-wing aircraft, and flew around got a pretty close view of what was happening in the volcano. We saw the area that is bulging up, where the magma is under the earth and is beginning to show signs that something may give way; we may have more major explosion.

We do know that there have been three events that have occurred so far. And then in addition, this new one that just occurred. The most recent is different in that the others were all connected to earthquake activity. This one seemed to be very superficial in that it was not tied to the earthquake activity, and so really doesn't have the same indication of what's going on down below, doesn't seem to indicate as much about what's happening down below as the others did.

PHILLIPS: All right, forgive me, you were in a fixed-wing, not a helicopter. Miles O'Brien way saying it was probably one of the scariest rides of his life, getting up and landing on that volcano in a helicopter. I'm assuming now in a fixed-wing, it's a little more safe for you.

NORTON: Well, we were a little further away. We didn't get nearly to the point of landing in it. But it certainly was dramatic to see, first of all, what you can still see from the 1980 explosion, and then to realize that the area we were seeing had been building up. It was in some areas about 50 feet higher than it had been just a few days ago with the lava building up inside.

PHILLIPS: Now, Secretary Norton, scientists are saying that they don't expect anything close to what happened in 1980, right, with the devastation that took place when that volcano did erupt and 57 people were killed. Is it -- are they saying that it will not be that bad again, just because once you have an eruption of that magnitude, it just will never be that bad again? Is that how it works?

NORTON: Well, it's Actually just looking at what the indications are right now. What we see today is just some building up within the crater itself. In 1980, the entire side of the mountain was bulging out. And so there was vastly more of a buildup that was occurring in 1980. And we today are seeing basically activity that's only going down to about a mile below the surface. It just doesn't seem to be nearly the buildup.

One other thing, though, that one of the geologists that I talked with today said was that the 1980 earthquake -- or explosion actually built up for about two months, that they were monitoring that as it built up. There is no way we would predict right now, based on what we've seen, that that is what is in any way definitely going to occur.

This may be essentially just something very small that has an impact just in terms of the particulates that cause problems for aircraft.

PHILLIPS: You know, we see these pictures -- and obviously they're pretty amazing, just the sight, the sound, and the smell. And I know a lot of people have been sort of gathering in this eight-mile radius, I understand, you know, buying Cokes and hot dogs and just sitting around and seeing what will happen.

But can you sort of give us, in layman's terms -- for you, for me, for the next door neighbor, for people that live in that area -- the scientific significance by studying this and watching this and taking samples from this volcano, what does it tell us about the environment or the landscape and what it could mean down the road?

NORTON: This tells us, of course, a lot about how volcanoes work. We've studied Mount St. Helens a lot. And so, the scientists have a lot of instruments, very sophisticated equipment and sophisticated knowledge, so that they can study that earthquake.

They have said that right now what the sort of maximum of what they would expect would be that you might see rocks that are a foot across that might be tossed up to three miles. That's very significant. But the good news is that nobody's in those three miles. Nobody lives that close to the volcano.

The ash is the main concern. That causes problems for aircraft. It gets in, it gums up the engines. It has -- it causes problems for people with respiratory concerns, and perhaps traffic visibility.

But again, I want to emphasize, don't see the kinds of potential problems with flooding and landslides that really caused the problems in 1980.

PHILLIPS: You mentioned the technology. From 1980 to now, how has the technology changed? How has it gotten better? What are you able to learn that you couldn't learn in 1980?

NORTON: We have today GPS equipment that lets us pinpoint exactly the location in different parts of the volcano. We have -- we're going to be bringing in, hopefully tomorrow, a remote controlled video camera so we can get a very close view of what's happening at the crater. We have some other more sophisticated seismic equipment than what we've had in the past and the ability to process the information.

PHILLIPS: Gale Norton, secretary of the interior. Thanks for your time today. We appreciate it.

NORTON: Thank you.

PHILLIPS: Want to take you now from Washington where the secretary is back to our Ted Rowlands, who is there on the scene and not far from where Mount St. Helens is letting off steam. How far away are you, Ted?

ROWLANDS: About nine miles away from the volcano. It appears as though we're a lot closer because it's so large. And we really do have a wonderful seat, if you will, for this. And it has been an amazing sight for the -- I guess more than a half hour now. It's been emitting this steam.

For a while there, it looked as though the event had subsided. Now we're seeing a little bit of a cloud, not with the same intensity, starting to appear in the center there. Obviously more of this steam being emitted from the volcano as the folks from the USGS described what is happening is that it's a hot material -- presumably either the gases from the magma inside the volcano or the magma itself -- is coming into contact with water and ice from the glacier inside the volcano. And that is causing this eruption.

They say there is little or no ash in this steam cloud. It appeared as though when it was first coming out that it was dark in nature and that there was most likely some ash. And that was what they first thought. But they believe the ash content is minimal at this point. And what they also believe is that this is not the end, that there will be more to come in terms of eruptions and Mount St. Helens in the near future.

PHILLIPS: Now, Ted, earlier in the interview that you had with the forest service there, they were saying that they're letting folks get as close as about eight-and-a-half. And I was reading that people are actually camping out, they're barbecuing, folks are setting up hot dog stands and selling soda.

I mean, has this turned into a bit of a tourist attraction?

ROWLANDS: Yeah. And a lot of locals who are intimate with this mountain after 1980 and even before, you know, it's a part of their landscape here. They're very interested in it, and they feel a kinship, if you will, to Mount St. Helens.

And they came out -- especially over the weekend it was jam packed. Today, obviously, a work day, so there is less traffic. And the folks this weekend would have loved to have seen this show. They saw smaller emissions, but nothing compared to this.

But yeah, people have come out here, made the pilgrimage. We're about 50 miles north of Portland, 100 south of Seattle. And people from around the region are coming here. A lot of geologists are coming here. There was a geologist on the plane that I was on from Los Angeles coming up here who was very excited to get a firsthand glimpse of this.

And you were talking about the instrumentation around the volcano. This is the most watched active volcano in the continental United States. And geologists from around the country and the world are able to monitor the seismic activity and other readings because of the intense amount of equipment that is up on this mountain. And that will go a long way in helping to predict and learn more about volcanic eruptions.

But as one geologist said, every eruption is different. And it's impossible really to predict intensity and exact timing. But they're getting better at it. And this will go a long way to helping them develop the science around volcanic eruptions.

PHILLIPS: Well, in addition to the science about volcanic eruptions, what about maybe long-term effects or other types of effects that scientists are looking for landscape-wise, environmentally? I know they're watching the duration of this, and they're monitoring the movement of the magma in the lava dome.

But what else is of interest to just the general public that scientists are looking for, Ted?

ROWLANDS: Well, you know, I think that one of the things that they've learned already from this event, when it first started on Friday, it was a steam emission. And the belief was that it was being propelled, if you will, by old magma that was in the system.

But then when they started to document these what they call harmonic tremors, and that is basically magma moving itself up the neck of the volcano -- that happened on Saturday -- that's when the level three alert went out. And their concern now is that they don't know the amount of new magma that's being introduced or that is in the system right now that is going to eventually make its way out or close to it.

There's a sidebar here: There is a chance, according to one geologist, that nothing will happen. It'll get to this point, and then nothing will actually blow. There won't be a major eruption. They think that is a small chance, and they do believe that this magma will manifest itself one way or another.

And they'll learn a lot in terms of being able to measure the amount of magma that was able to form and the pressure that was able to form between now and 1980 when, of course, the catastrophic blast took everybody by surprise. They had predicted a blast, but nowhere near the intensity that happened in 1980 when it occurred there.

The good thing about this situation is they're very confident because most of the mountain is now literally gone because of the '80 blast. The stakes are lower in terms of the possibility of a catastrophic eruption. It just isn't going to happen. And the pressure isn't there, and the material isn't there to create the same effects that we saw in 1980 when 57 people lost their lives when Mount St. Helens last blew.

PHILLIPS: And Willie Scott there with the USGS talking about what they've been able to monitor thus far, Ted. Sort of bring our viewers up to date. It's the boiling -- the water that's boiling underneath -- this melted water from the glacier that is actually boiling and creating this hot water, in addition to these miniearthquakes, I guess, that are taking place at the same time that's causing the magma to move up the lava dome. Is that right?

ROWLANDS: Right. And the earthquakes have not subsided. When the event happened in 1980 and if it was a volcanic eruption involving the magma and actual lava emission, the earthquakes would, according to the geologists, change in nature. They would either subside completely or increase. In 1980, a 5.2 accompanied the big blast. In this case, they say they've been monitoring, and the seismic activity has remained the same throughout this steam emission, meaning that there could be more to come when you have the magma material involved in the actual eruption. What they're saying is happening is this hot material is coming in contact -- either the gases emitted from the magma or the magma itself -- is coming in contact with the glacier ice, which is already present and water. And that's what's producing this immense steam emission, which has slowed down.

It has -- from a layman's point of view, it seems to be coming to an end. It is nowhere near what we saw about a half an hour ago when it was billowing out of the center of the volcano.

PHILLIPS: I'm thinking there's an alert system in place. Sort of like the terrorist alert system -- I'm not making any kind of comparison at all. But you know, it's the same type of like level one, level two. And this actually reached an alert level to three, is that right?

ROWLANDS: There are three levels, and we're at level three. It's -- level three was put into place on Saturday when it was determined that this wasn't just a steam emission, that magma was involved, and new magma was involved, meaning that the intensity of the blast is there. The ingredients were all formed. And the definition of a level three is that a volcanic eruption is imminent, and that is what we've been under since Saturday. It was at that point that they increased the radius for people to be cleared out to about eight miles. People were taken away if a place called the Johnston Observatory Area, which is about five miles, and has a direct shot, viewing shot into the center of the volcano. Those folks were evacuated and brought out to a safer distance, just to be safe, to make sure even though they don't believe that even, in fact, those people were necessarily in harm's way, they just wanted to make sure that everybody was at a safe distance.

PHILLIPS: All right, Ted Rowlands there, about nine miles out from Mount St. Helens, continuing to monitor this story for us. Level three, Ted explained to us. One, two, three, this being of course the highest. Nothing compared to the eruption back in 1980, according to seismologist, also scientists there at the USGS.

On the line with us now, another seismologist, Bill Steele, with the University of Washington. Pleasure to have you with us. I'm curious, how long have you been at the University of Washington?

BILL STEELE, SEISMOLOGIST, UNIV. OF WASHINGTON: Well, since 1993, so I missed the fireworks in early '80s.

PHILLIPS: Right, OK, so you missed the 1980. Looking at what we're seeing today, put it into perspective for us, and why it's something that is of interest, why you're watching it, what you hope to learn from this steam and ash coming up from this volcano?

STEELE: Well, that's a lot. Overall, looking at the seismicity of the last week, it truly is unprecedented. The only comparable period of time is the pre-1980 buildup to the big eruption on May 18th of 1980. So in that sense, we really have a good basis for concern, that this is more than kind of a normal fluctuation of the volcano by far.

The dome-building eruptions that occurred after the big eruption in 1980 did not have that much activity associated with it.

Now, the steam, the explosion that we saw today wasn't accompanied by a seismic signal. It was pretty shallow and not well connected to the ground, and we expect to see these periodically as things continue to warm up on the dome.

PHILLIPS: So you talk about concerns. Talk to me more about the concerns that you have.

STEELE: Well, the concern and the uncertainty that we're facing now is that we're not sure about the nature of the chemical composition of the magma that is involved in driving this thing. And the big question is whether we're dealing with old, degassed magma, or fresher magma that could behave like, well, like a bottle of champagne shook up -- you don't see the bubbles until you've popped the cork off or let the pressure off, and then in it outgasses. And in the case of magma it can foam and outgas very volatile compounds that can cause explosive eruptions and throw projectiles great distances.

PHILLIPS: So if it's hot, degassed lava, then that could cause a massive explosion?

STEELE: Well, it's the hot stuff with the gas intact, that's the dangerous stuff. It has been sitting around since 1989 or so and lost a lot of its gases, then we might just see an extrusion and building of the lava dome without a lot of fireworks.

PHILLIPS: Now, Bill, take us beyond what we're seeing and what we're talking about and is of interest at this moment, and look down the road at what this -- what could this landscape look like 10 years from now? Let's say this volcano continues to erupt, continues to have, you know, cracks in the crater. Could this eventually sort of part ways and dissipate, or will it always be here? How will it affect the landscape?

STEELE: Well, that's a great question. And it's rare that anyone thinks that far down the road, is it?

PHILLIPS: I'm looking for a way to stretch here. I'm...

STEELE: But it's great. And it does put it in perspective. Now, traditionally, Mount St. Helens would have a very explosive eruption and go through a 100-year period of kind of frequent eruptions, kind of rebuilding itself, in part, often. I mean, the edifice that was blown off in 1980 was built up from previous eruptions. We could be moving into, depending on the magmas down there and if they can work there way from the large magma chambers deeper under the volcano, we could have a rebuilding and we could say see a Mount st. Helens with a top again. We could add thousands of feet to the edifice of the volcano. I mean, these things are all possible. Then again, we could have more -- some more explosive eruptions as well. It's an evolving landscape and it's a very active volcano.

PHILLIPS: OK, I'm sitting here racking my brain, and I may make a complete idiot of myself here on national television. But was it a volcano that created, was it Santorini in Italy? Am I right? Am I remembering my history right? I'm keeping my fingers crossed right now.

STEELE: There are numerous, very explosive volcanoes that behave similarly, and there are correlations the Italian volcanoes and the Cascade volcanoes. You know, we could think one of the most dramatic instances was the Pompeii disaster...

PHILLIPS: There we go.

STEELE: Where Mount Vesuvius had a pyroclastic flowdown that killed all the residents of Herculean (ph) and Pompeii. So these explosive volcanoes can be extremely dangerous.

PHILLIPS: So, yes, I think that must have been what I thinking then was Pompeii. I was sort of close.

STEELE: No, there are others, too. So I mean -- yes.

But so now we're not looking at -- for one thing, we don't have the cap of the mountain on anymore. We don't have a bulge on the whole north face of the mountain that could lead to a catastrophic sector collapse and lateral blasts as we had in 1980, but if fresh magmas do move in -- and we're not seeing that yet. We're seeing this all be quite shallow. But if we see that kind of plug between the top part of the volcano and the deeper magma chambers begin to move aside or get pushed out, then we will be reassessing the scope of the kinds of eruptions that may be ahead.

Right now, the most likely thing are a continuation of these steam explosions, and eventually we expect to see magma at the surface, and if it's gaseous magma, we may see explosions and some pyroclastic floes. If it's degassed magma, we may just see dome building and extrusion with some minor explosions, so we're watching and waiting and watching very carefully.

PHILLIPS: OK, Bill, now I'm really getting historic here. I love my producers. That's why I love Sonya so much. I'm not crazy. She brought me a layout of Santorini, Greece, talking about the eruption of Santorini in Greece in 1650 B.C. It was one of the largest, about seven cubic miles, talking about the magma, when it erupted. And I'm kind of reading this as I'm going out loud. I guess -- OK, I see here, the volcano collapsed, it produced -- ash fell over a large area in the eastern Mediterranean in Turkey. That eruption probably caused the end of the civilization there on the island of Crete.

So I guess, OK, if as you've studied this volcano and how it's been behaving in the past decades, you know, looking way down the road, I mean, is this an area that people might come and visit decades from now and think, oh, boy, at one time this was...

STEELE: A beautiful forest.

PHILLIPS: A beautiful place that scientists visited in an area called Washington.

STEELE: Yes, well you know, what can I say, we do have explosive volcanoes, and you could look at Mount Musama (ph) in Oregon or Crater Lake, that blew most of its edifice away in a catastrophic explosion. These are extremely rare events, but they can happen.

Mount St. Helens is about 50,000 years old, and it's been extremely active. It's kind of a young teenager of the cascade volcanoes. It is -- it has been having eruptions every couple of hundred years, and then a series of eruptions following the big -- the first, so we kind of expect an ongoing sequence like that, building and then occasional explosive eruptions that may remove some of the edifice.

But it's always a possibility, I guess, that of something more catastrophic happening. Right now, we see no sighs of the kind of magmatic involvement that would be necessary to produce one of these really cataclysmic explosions.

PHILLIPS: All right, Bill Steele, from the University of Washington, thank you so much.

STEELE: Well, thank you for having me.

PHILLIPS: Yes, it was very interesting. And thank you for helping me with my history there. Hopefully we'll get a chance to talk more as we continue to follow this, Bill. Thank you so much.

STEELE: Thank you.

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