Return to Transcripts main page
Live From...
Past Polls Show Debates Make Little Difference as Bush & Kerry Prepare for 3rd Tilt; Red Sox, Yankees Renew Old Rivalries
Aired October 12, 2004 - 14:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: ... anti-Kerry documentary on its 62 television stations just days before the presidential election. Reaction just ahead on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: On the campaign trail before the final debate. President Bush working to fire up his conservative base in Colorado.
Bush told supporters John Kerry will raise taxes on the middle class to pay for his proposals. Colorado has gone Republican in nine of the past 11 presidential elections.
The president will head to Arizona next for tomorrow's final debate.
Vice President Cheney looking for votes in the battleground state of Wisconsin. Cheney took questions from an audience in a town hall meeting in Milwaukee.
No public events scheduled for the Democratic contender John Kerry. The Massachusetts senator is in Santa Fe, New Mexico, for last minute debate preps. He chose to stay an extra night to avoid traveling during tonight's A.L. Championship Series between the Yanks and his hometown Red Sox.
Kerry's running mate isn't idle today. John Edwards held a town hall-style rally in the high school in a high school in the Denver suburb of Commerce City. Are there any town halls left in America that haven't had one of these?
Anyway, tonight Edwards is scheduled to appear on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno, where they will hold the town hall forum -- just kidding.
Tomorrow night, you can get one more chance to see the president and the senator face off. CNN's prime-time coverage begins at 7 p.m. Eastern. Tune into CNN's "LARRY KING LIVE" tonight for an interview with first lady Laura Bush on the eve of the debate. That's at 9 Eastern, 6 Pacific.
PHILLIPS: Debate winners, debate losers, polls keep track of Americans' opinions, but what to these polls tell us about the debate's impact on the presidential race?
Now, in 1960 Americans watched the first televised presidential debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. We know who won the race, but did the polls then and did other debates since show big changes before election day?
For a historical perspective, let's go live to Gallup Poll editor in chief Frank Newport. Take us back to 1960, Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: I will indeed. It's interesting, Kyra, because the conventional wisdom is, of course, that Nixon swore the appearance and some perspiration and furtive glance of his eyes in that first televised debate caused him problems in the race. Kennedy ultimately won.
But when you look at the data, we really see that the debates didn't make a big deal of difference, at least to the degree that some people may think they would.
There were actually four debates that year between Kennedy and Nixon, according to our records. They started out in early September. The two candidates virtually tied. And you can see the numbers.
There was a slight increase for Kennedy there in the middle as those debates were going on, but just a couple of point. And of course, the race ended 50/50. Kennedy won the election and he won the popular vote by -- just by a tiny sliver.
So maybe we can say without the bad performance Nixon would have surged to the lead in 1960. But when you look at it, you really don't see that the debates in and of themselves caused some significant movement up and down in Gallup poll tracking that we were doing at that time.
PHILLIPS: All right. Let's go move ahead to 1976, Ford/Carter.
NEWPORT: Yes. That's the debate that we've seen a lot of replays of, because in the second debate that year, President Gerald Ford made the inappropriate comment about Eastern Europe not being under the domination of the Soviet Union.
But look what happened when we tracked the presidential race. And this is after the first, after the second, after the third and the final poll. You'll see that, if anything, Carter kind of came down and Ford advanced.
In fact, the whole scenario for the '76 election as we tracked it, Kyra, was that Ford gained. Carter was supposed to win going away. He ultimately won, but the final popular vote in 1976 is only two points. Carter just beat Ford by a couple of points there.
So if anything, the debates helped Ford gain on Jimmy Carter, the challenger.
PHILLIPS: Well, we can't forget that first debate in 1984 with Ronald Reagan, can we?
NEWPORT: Yes. Same idea. Our Gallup poll right after the debate in '84 showed that Reagan lost that debate by 20 points to Mondale. See that? Thirty-five to 54, Mondale won. There was the second debate, and that's when we came back and, of course, Reagan made that comment about, "I won't take my opponent's relative youth and inexperience into account." And Reagan won by just three points.
But one would think that after the first pretty dismal performance by the incumbent Ronald Reagan in '84, Mondale would have moved significantly ahead in the polls. No. There was no change.
Reagan was ahead the whole fall. He was ahead after the first debate, second debate and went on to cruise into a victory over Walter Mondale.
So again, despite the less than illustrious debate performance in the first one and the very good performance in the second, we really didn't see any change in the polls.
PHILLIPS: All right. So how do things look today as we head into the final debate tomorrow night?
NEWPORT: Well, there's no question about it, in our polling and other polling, this debate did make a difference. Actually, we're seeing somewhat of an exception this year.
Bush had been doing well in September, coming off the Republican convention. This is this year, the top line. But between September 24, 26 and October 1 to 3 was that first debate in Miami, and our polls and others show that Kerry moves ahead. He's tied in our poll.
Now, the second debate didn't make any difference. That's kind of after historical findings. The poll over the weekend, Kerry as you know showed no difference than the one before, the St. Louis debate.
So debates can make a difference and they can't make a difference. But historically, it actually looks like to us debates are less likely to make a significant difference than not. Interestingly enough.
PHILLIPS: Frank Newport, thanks so much.
O'BRIEN: News across America now.
Police in Portland, Oregon are investigating several cases of SUVs targeted by vandals. Obscenities about President Bush and the question "why" were spray painted on the cars. So far authorities have no suspects.
Rock 'n' roll for John Kerry. Bruce Springsteen, the Dave Matthews band and REM among the stars at last night's Vote for Change headline concert. They performed separately or together in battleground states over the last several weeks. Proceeds go to a Democratic group trying to defeat President Bush.
And the two men runs for the Senate seat in Illinois have their first debate today. It's the first of three debates between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Alan Keyes. Keyes was a former candidate for president. And Obama gained national attention after speaking at the Democratic National Convention.
PHILLIPS: What do you do when you have three weeks left before the biggest political showdown in your life? Just ask the "CROSSFIRE" guys. We're going to talk with Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala about what the candidates can and should be doing.
Plus from the road to the White House to the road to the World Series. The Boston Red Sox, Miles, begin their quest once again to get the Yankee monkey off their backs. We're going to have a live report from the house that Ruth built after this right after this.
ANNOUNCER: You're watching LIVE FROM on CNN, the most trusted name in news.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Baseball's Houston Astros had plenty of champagne last night. For the first time in a history spanning 43 years, the long beleaguered team captured a playoff series.
In Atlanta they slapped around the home team Braves the win the deciding game five by a score of 12-3. They're going to play the National Championship Series beginning tomorrow night against the favored St. Louis Cardinals.
O'BRIEN: Speaking of playoff baseball, we're there a way to monitor smack talk, we'd probably witness -- were there a way to monitor smack talk, we'd probably witness a record set today in New York City and Boston.
Obviously, I'm not very good at smack talk.
PHILLIPS: Yes, you are.
O'BRIEN: Here's today's cover of the "New York Daily News," the ghost of Babe Ruth up there, the heavy one there, casting an old spell on this year's version of the snake bitten Boston Red Sox.
And what about that "Herald" in Boston? Forget the supposed curse and the legacy of the freakish heartbreak, this is the Red Sox year: "This is the Year."
Pick any sport you want, there's not a rivalry anywhere that gets more fevered than this one. And here they go again. Tonight's game one of the American League Championship Series live in Yankee Stadium.
Josh Elliott, staff writer for "Sports Illustrated," there for the big game tonight.
Josh, does it feel like a different year to you?
JOSH ELLIOTT, WRITER, "SPORTS ILLUSTRATED": Indeed it does, and that's really probably due to Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who was almost the Boston Red Sox shortstop.
Of course, the trade fell through from the Texas Rangers going to Boston. A few weeks later, George Steinbrenner rolls in, snaps him up.
And then in the late July game, of course, he was hit by Boston pitcher Brandon Arroyo. That led to a fight between he and Boston catcher Jason Varitek, a bench-clearing brawl that many of the Red Sox players attribute their late season surge into the playoffs to.
So you know, we thought it might not get any more incredible than Aaron Boone's home run last year that won game seven. But tonight just might be the first chapter of an even more incredible saga.
O'BRIEN: There's always another story that kind of marches along with the baseball, what's going on in the field. In this case, the very odd and tragic story of Mariano Rivera, the Yanks' closer.
Is he going -- fill people in on that briefly, and just is he going to be back in time to play tonight?
ELLIOTT: Yes. Absolutely. Mariano Rivera, the Yankees closer, has been arguably their MVP throughout this eight-year run of four World Series titles. He saved 30 of 33 postseason games for the Yankees.
He's -- the Yankees are 19-1 in the last games in which he's pitched. He's that dominant.
But in the clubhouse celebration following the Yankees divisional series win over the Twins, Rivera was informed that two of his wife's relatives were killed in a tragic accident at his home in Panama. He returned immediately to help prepare for the funeral, which was held early this morning.
However, the team did provide him with a private plane, and we learned later this morning that he will, in fact, return tonight. It remains to be seen, however, how he can shut this out. He is a very focused. He is -- he's known for his resolve. If anyone can shut out the pressures and the stress, it would be Mariano Rivera.
O'BRIEN: And speaking of pressure and stress, Curt Schilling facing a little bit of it as he takes the mound in Yankee Stadium tonight.
ELLIOTT: He loves it, though. Let me tell you, this is why Curt Schilling was brought here. This is why Curt Schilling essentially engineered this trade to the Boston Red Sox. He wanted this.
And remember, in 2001, Curt Schilling pitched three times against the Yankees in the World Series, winning once, giving up four runs in a little over 21 innings. He won the series MVP award. He went 21-6 this year. He's going to be a contender for the Cy Young.
But that is all prologue to tonight. He knows that this is the game he was brought here to pitch in. He could not be more excited. He has a bit of a sprained right ankle, but they will numb that with pain killing medication.
I have a feeling if he was missing his right ankle, he would still be out there tonight on the mound.
O'BRIEN: Take me up there, coach. I'll be right in there.
Probably see a lot of signs tonight, and this will help viewers at home who haven't been plugged into this, "Who's your daddy?" Why don't you give us the back-story on that one?
ELLIOTT: Yes, shockingly, this is in fact, a Major League Baseball licensed shirt. It does say, "Red Sox, who's your daddy?" with a pacifier through the Red Sox logo. Apparently, some dainty Red Sox fans' feelings were so very hurt. They lobbied Major League Baseball.
O'BRIEN: A little smack talk right there, Josh. A little smack talk.
ELLIOTT: If I was -- if I was a Red Sox fan, I would have more of a problem that Pedro Martinez said this in the first place. That's where the quote came from. After a recent loss, he did say that the Yankees were, in fact, his daddy, whatever that might mean.
However, the shirts are still selling briskly here in New York in a few locations. For just $19.99, they can be yours.
O'BRIEN: All right. Are you wearing pin stripes right now? Is that's what's going on, Josh?
ELLIOTT: There might be some pin stripes here. You know, I tried -- I tried to go as neutral as I possibly could.
O'BRIEN: Yes. All right, Josh. Thanks a lot. Enjoy the game tonight.
ELLIOTT: Absolutely.
O'BRIEN: Sure beats working for a living, doesn't it?
ELLIOTT: That's what they tell me.
O'BRIEN: Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Speaking of smack talk, we've got the "CROSSFIRE" guys coming up. Also, a check on the financial markets and Virgin takes on Apple in the iPod world. We're going to tell you what you can expect now that the company is doing something a little differently now.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Three weeks to go, one debate to go, and the race for the White House is about as close as you could possibly get. So who needs to do what tomorrow to come away with a win? You don't suppose our "CROSSFIRE" guys, Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala, have a few thoughts on this? They might.
Gentlemen, good to see you. Tucker just flew into Tempe. His arms are tired, right? TUCKER CARLSON, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Yes. Yes.
O'BRIEN: And what -- just give us the -- set scene for us there. Obviously, a raucous scene behind you there.
CARLSON: Well, it's ASU. It's known for its raucous scenes. You want raucous scenes, you come to Arizona State University.
O'BRIEN: I missed that.
BEGALA: ... the American way.
O'BRIEN: This is the place to do it, ASU, for raucous scenes. There you go; big wide shot. Got that jib camera there, looks like you're in some kind of modular housing there.
PAUL BEGALA, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": We do have some -- we've got some trailers that we're hanging out. But mostly -- look at these students here.
O'BRIEN: Yes.
BEGALA: Every one of them smart, every one of them good looking. Most of them Democrats, and so I like them a lot better. But Republicans are well represented here as well.
O'BRIEN: You're not pandering to the crowd or anything, are you, Paul? All right.
BEGALA: I think we may do a little crowd...
CARLSON: It's staged a little low for us.
O'BRIEN: Now that we've whipped the crowd into a frenzy prematurely in this segment, let's look at the numbers briefly if we could.
Our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows us this. And I could go through the numbers, but the bottom line, dead even. Two words apply here, absolutely dead even.
Does this surprise you, Paul?
BEGALA: What surprises me it's not the margin, and now the polls begin to matter, OK? Now we're in the last weeks of the campaign.
Here's how people ought to interpret them. Don't looked at the gap. It's not if Kerry is up one or Bush is up three. Look at the incumbents vote. The incumbent will not get a single point more than his last poll. Why? Because he's the incumbent. So that is to say, if the election were held today, it would be Kerry 51, Bush 48, Nader 1.
O'BRIEN: That is some kind of new math that I'm unaware of. Tucker, are buying that?
BEGALA: It's just the incumbent has got to be over 50.
CARLSON: What Paul is saying has been valid for the past 24 years...
O'BRIEN: OK.
CARLSON: ... since 1980. I think it's a slightly different situation today, because it's not simply a referendum on the incumbent as re-elects typically are.
The threshold is higher; we're at war. And so it's not simply a matter of do you want to give Bush another four years? If that were the question, Bush would lose.
But it's also a matter of do you want John Kerry to take the helm of a nation at war? I'm not sure Kerry made the sale on that.
So I think Bush has more room for movement in this race in the final days than an incumbent typically does.
O'BRIEN: All right. Let's go through another poll question which is worth batting around here.
Of course, tonight's subject matter, domestic issues, but in this CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, we also asked folks what was the most important issue factoring into your vote for president?
The economy, 29 percent; that's about the same. Terrorism, 26 percent, down a little bit. Iraq, 22 percent, down a little bit. And then health care, from 14 percent to 21 percent.
Now the folks in the Kerry camp have got to read that last number and just about pop the champagne corks, right, Tucker?
CARLSON: Yes. I don't believe it for a second. I mean, you know...
O'BRIEN: You don't believe the numbers?
CARLSON: No, I don't. I mean, I do think -- I don't think it's established that people sometimes in polls give the answers, the responsible answers, the answer they think they ought to give, the economy. It's important. We all know it's important.
If you ask people to define what the economy is or what they mean when they say the economy is the most important thing, it's an entirely different matter.
O'BRIEN: It's like -- it's like when you ask people if you watch reality TV and you say no, I was watching PBS, right, Paul?
CARLSON: I've never seen "The Bachelor," for instance.
O'BRIEN: Yes, never. Millions of people buy the "National Enquirer." You never have one person who did it, right?
All right, so Paul, what's your thought on this health care issue? Is this a sleeper issue?
BEGALA: Miles, we have 45 million people in America who can't afford to pay for health insurance. You know, we have millions of families who have young children. This is what is real in life.
Obviously, the war matters, but health care, the reason it's moving up is because, you know, frankly people thought the president has had four years on this, hasn't done anything. It is the most real issue imaginable when.
When moms and dads cannot afford to pay for health insurance for their kids, it tends to make them a little angry. I think that's why the issue terrain in tomorrow night's debate now favors Kerry.
Kerry has met and even mastered Bush on his favorite issue terrain; that is the war and terrorism. That was the first debate and a good bit of second. The third debate now will mostly play out on issues that are favorable to Kerry.
I think Bush is going to try to counter that is to raise domestic issues where Bush actually does a little bit better. That is these really divisive social issues. I think you'll hear more about Gods, guns, gays and abortion than we've heard from Bush in the last four years tomorrow night.
O'BRIEN: All right. Tucker, is that the goal here? Is it shore up the base? Is it shoring up the base, turning out the vote? What is the goal here, because at this juncture, people's opinions are getting more and more set and concrete, aren't they, Tucker?
CARLSON: Yes. They are, and I think there's no question that Bush has some anxious conservatives out there who aren't as satisfied as they might be with the last four years.
But with respect to the question of the economy, that is a model that has grown stale. It is not, in fact, "the economy, stupid" in this election. You are not going to vote for a candidate you don't think will keep you safe, period. Period. That's not a Bush talking point. That's not Bush's strategy. That's just a fact. It's reality.
O'BRIEN: Tucker, do you think -- has Kerry -- has Kerry won that argument with voters, convincing them?
CARLSON: I think, actually, Kerry -- Kerry is coming at something like a 40-point deficit. The generic Democrat was coming at 40 point -- 40 points behind on the questions.
Kerry's made up a lot of that ground. I think he's done, by any measure, a good job in convincing people he can keep him safe. But I still think the only question that matters in this election is, you know, has he fully convinced people or not. You know? If he has, he'll be president. If he hasn't, he won't.
BEGALA: Look, a lot of people are going to vote on the war, but a whole lot are going to vote on things like health care and jobs. You guys need a good health care program? You need good jobs here in Tempe at ASU?
CARLSON: I don't feel like arguing. You're absolutely right!
O'BRIEN: Shameless pandering to the young crowd there at ASU! All right. Have a great time.
CARLSON: Let the record reflect I did not pander.
O'BRIEN: Got to go now.
BEGALA: I'm proud to pander, Miles.
O'BRIEN: See you, guys.
PHILLIPS: Keep the crowd.
Another company that wants to take a bite out of Apple's iPod. Rhonda Schaffler, live from the New York Stock Exchange with the details -- Rhonda.
(STOCK REPORT)
PHILLIPS: Thanks, Rhonda.
O'BRIEN: And that wraps up this edition of LIVE FROM.
PHILLIPS: Now taking us through the next hour of political headlines, Judy Woodruff's "INSIDE POLITICS." She's live from Tempe, Arizona. Hopefully, it's calmed down a little bit.
Hi, Judy.
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS: It's a noisy crowd. But we love to have these students here with us on the campus of Arizona State.
Kyra, Miles, thank you both.
This is the site of tomorrow night's final presidential debate. Today on "INSIDE POLITICS," we're going get a debate preview from two bipartisan analysts.
Plus, throughout his life, Christopher Reeve fought tirelessly for legalizing stem cell research. Now, following his death, we'll look at the issue and how it affects the race for the White House.
"INSIDE POLITICS" begins in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: In the news now.
We're just getting word about surgery for Saddam Hussein at a medical facility inside the Green Zone in Baghdad. That's the heavily fortified headquarters of U.S. and Iraqi officials.
A U.S. military official tells CNN that hernia surgery was performed two weeks ago without complications.
A delay for the defense. The judge in the Scott Peterson double murder case has recessed for trial -- or recessed, rather, the trial for nearly a week, saying that some legal issues need to be resolved. But he gave no details. Defense was set to begin its case today.
A monumental issue. The Supreme Court agrees to consider whether it's constitutional to display the Ten Commandments on government property. Lower courts have issued conflicting rulings. The Supreme Court banned the Ten Commandments from public schools 24 years ago.
Now stay tuned for "JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS."
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired October 12, 2004 - 14:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: ... anti-Kerry documentary on its 62 television stations just days before the presidential election. Reaction just ahead on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: On the campaign trail before the final debate. President Bush working to fire up his conservative base in Colorado.
Bush told supporters John Kerry will raise taxes on the middle class to pay for his proposals. Colorado has gone Republican in nine of the past 11 presidential elections.
The president will head to Arizona next for tomorrow's final debate.
Vice President Cheney looking for votes in the battleground state of Wisconsin. Cheney took questions from an audience in a town hall meeting in Milwaukee.
No public events scheduled for the Democratic contender John Kerry. The Massachusetts senator is in Santa Fe, New Mexico, for last minute debate preps. He chose to stay an extra night to avoid traveling during tonight's A.L. Championship Series between the Yanks and his hometown Red Sox.
Kerry's running mate isn't idle today. John Edwards held a town hall-style rally in the high school in a high school in the Denver suburb of Commerce City. Are there any town halls left in America that haven't had one of these?
Anyway, tonight Edwards is scheduled to appear on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno, where they will hold the town hall forum -- just kidding.
Tomorrow night, you can get one more chance to see the president and the senator face off. CNN's prime-time coverage begins at 7 p.m. Eastern. Tune into CNN's "LARRY KING LIVE" tonight for an interview with first lady Laura Bush on the eve of the debate. That's at 9 Eastern, 6 Pacific.
PHILLIPS: Debate winners, debate losers, polls keep track of Americans' opinions, but what to these polls tell us about the debate's impact on the presidential race?
Now, in 1960 Americans watched the first televised presidential debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. We know who won the race, but did the polls then and did other debates since show big changes before election day?
For a historical perspective, let's go live to Gallup Poll editor in chief Frank Newport. Take us back to 1960, Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: I will indeed. It's interesting, Kyra, because the conventional wisdom is, of course, that Nixon swore the appearance and some perspiration and furtive glance of his eyes in that first televised debate caused him problems in the race. Kennedy ultimately won.
But when you look at the data, we really see that the debates didn't make a big deal of difference, at least to the degree that some people may think they would.
There were actually four debates that year between Kennedy and Nixon, according to our records. They started out in early September. The two candidates virtually tied. And you can see the numbers.
There was a slight increase for Kennedy there in the middle as those debates were going on, but just a couple of point. And of course, the race ended 50/50. Kennedy won the election and he won the popular vote by -- just by a tiny sliver.
So maybe we can say without the bad performance Nixon would have surged to the lead in 1960. But when you look at it, you really don't see that the debates in and of themselves caused some significant movement up and down in Gallup poll tracking that we were doing at that time.
PHILLIPS: All right. Let's go move ahead to 1976, Ford/Carter.
NEWPORT: Yes. That's the debate that we've seen a lot of replays of, because in the second debate that year, President Gerald Ford made the inappropriate comment about Eastern Europe not being under the domination of the Soviet Union.
But look what happened when we tracked the presidential race. And this is after the first, after the second, after the third and the final poll. You'll see that, if anything, Carter kind of came down and Ford advanced.
In fact, the whole scenario for the '76 election as we tracked it, Kyra, was that Ford gained. Carter was supposed to win going away. He ultimately won, but the final popular vote in 1976 is only two points. Carter just beat Ford by a couple of points there.
So if anything, the debates helped Ford gain on Jimmy Carter, the challenger.
PHILLIPS: Well, we can't forget that first debate in 1984 with Ronald Reagan, can we?
NEWPORT: Yes. Same idea. Our Gallup poll right after the debate in '84 showed that Reagan lost that debate by 20 points to Mondale. See that? Thirty-five to 54, Mondale won. There was the second debate, and that's when we came back and, of course, Reagan made that comment about, "I won't take my opponent's relative youth and inexperience into account." And Reagan won by just three points.
But one would think that after the first pretty dismal performance by the incumbent Ronald Reagan in '84, Mondale would have moved significantly ahead in the polls. No. There was no change.
Reagan was ahead the whole fall. He was ahead after the first debate, second debate and went on to cruise into a victory over Walter Mondale.
So again, despite the less than illustrious debate performance in the first one and the very good performance in the second, we really didn't see any change in the polls.
PHILLIPS: All right. So how do things look today as we head into the final debate tomorrow night?
NEWPORT: Well, there's no question about it, in our polling and other polling, this debate did make a difference. Actually, we're seeing somewhat of an exception this year.
Bush had been doing well in September, coming off the Republican convention. This is this year, the top line. But between September 24, 26 and October 1 to 3 was that first debate in Miami, and our polls and others show that Kerry moves ahead. He's tied in our poll.
Now, the second debate didn't make any difference. That's kind of after historical findings. The poll over the weekend, Kerry as you know showed no difference than the one before, the St. Louis debate.
So debates can make a difference and they can't make a difference. But historically, it actually looks like to us debates are less likely to make a significant difference than not. Interestingly enough.
PHILLIPS: Frank Newport, thanks so much.
O'BRIEN: News across America now.
Police in Portland, Oregon are investigating several cases of SUVs targeted by vandals. Obscenities about President Bush and the question "why" were spray painted on the cars. So far authorities have no suspects.
Rock 'n' roll for John Kerry. Bruce Springsteen, the Dave Matthews band and REM among the stars at last night's Vote for Change headline concert. They performed separately or together in battleground states over the last several weeks. Proceeds go to a Democratic group trying to defeat President Bush.
And the two men runs for the Senate seat in Illinois have their first debate today. It's the first of three debates between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Alan Keyes. Keyes was a former candidate for president. And Obama gained national attention after speaking at the Democratic National Convention.
PHILLIPS: What do you do when you have three weeks left before the biggest political showdown in your life? Just ask the "CROSSFIRE" guys. We're going to talk with Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala about what the candidates can and should be doing.
Plus from the road to the White House to the road to the World Series. The Boston Red Sox, Miles, begin their quest once again to get the Yankee monkey off their backs. We're going to have a live report from the house that Ruth built after this right after this.
ANNOUNCER: You're watching LIVE FROM on CNN, the most trusted name in news.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Baseball's Houston Astros had plenty of champagne last night. For the first time in a history spanning 43 years, the long beleaguered team captured a playoff series.
In Atlanta they slapped around the home team Braves the win the deciding game five by a score of 12-3. They're going to play the National Championship Series beginning tomorrow night against the favored St. Louis Cardinals.
O'BRIEN: Speaking of playoff baseball, we're there a way to monitor smack talk, we'd probably witness -- were there a way to monitor smack talk, we'd probably witness a record set today in New York City and Boston.
Obviously, I'm not very good at smack talk.
PHILLIPS: Yes, you are.
O'BRIEN: Here's today's cover of the "New York Daily News," the ghost of Babe Ruth up there, the heavy one there, casting an old spell on this year's version of the snake bitten Boston Red Sox.
And what about that "Herald" in Boston? Forget the supposed curse and the legacy of the freakish heartbreak, this is the Red Sox year: "This is the Year."
Pick any sport you want, there's not a rivalry anywhere that gets more fevered than this one. And here they go again. Tonight's game one of the American League Championship Series live in Yankee Stadium.
Josh Elliott, staff writer for "Sports Illustrated," there for the big game tonight.
Josh, does it feel like a different year to you?
JOSH ELLIOTT, WRITER, "SPORTS ILLUSTRATED": Indeed it does, and that's really probably due to Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who was almost the Boston Red Sox shortstop.
Of course, the trade fell through from the Texas Rangers going to Boston. A few weeks later, George Steinbrenner rolls in, snaps him up.
And then in the late July game, of course, he was hit by Boston pitcher Brandon Arroyo. That led to a fight between he and Boston catcher Jason Varitek, a bench-clearing brawl that many of the Red Sox players attribute their late season surge into the playoffs to.
So you know, we thought it might not get any more incredible than Aaron Boone's home run last year that won game seven. But tonight just might be the first chapter of an even more incredible saga.
O'BRIEN: There's always another story that kind of marches along with the baseball, what's going on in the field. In this case, the very odd and tragic story of Mariano Rivera, the Yanks' closer.
Is he going -- fill people in on that briefly, and just is he going to be back in time to play tonight?
ELLIOTT: Yes. Absolutely. Mariano Rivera, the Yankees closer, has been arguably their MVP throughout this eight-year run of four World Series titles. He saved 30 of 33 postseason games for the Yankees.
He's -- the Yankees are 19-1 in the last games in which he's pitched. He's that dominant.
But in the clubhouse celebration following the Yankees divisional series win over the Twins, Rivera was informed that two of his wife's relatives were killed in a tragic accident at his home in Panama. He returned immediately to help prepare for the funeral, which was held early this morning.
However, the team did provide him with a private plane, and we learned later this morning that he will, in fact, return tonight. It remains to be seen, however, how he can shut this out. He is a very focused. He is -- he's known for his resolve. If anyone can shut out the pressures and the stress, it would be Mariano Rivera.
O'BRIEN: And speaking of pressure and stress, Curt Schilling facing a little bit of it as he takes the mound in Yankee Stadium tonight.
ELLIOTT: He loves it, though. Let me tell you, this is why Curt Schilling was brought here. This is why Curt Schilling essentially engineered this trade to the Boston Red Sox. He wanted this.
And remember, in 2001, Curt Schilling pitched three times against the Yankees in the World Series, winning once, giving up four runs in a little over 21 innings. He won the series MVP award. He went 21-6 this year. He's going to be a contender for the Cy Young.
But that is all prologue to tonight. He knows that this is the game he was brought here to pitch in. He could not be more excited. He has a bit of a sprained right ankle, but they will numb that with pain killing medication.
I have a feeling if he was missing his right ankle, he would still be out there tonight on the mound.
O'BRIEN: Take me up there, coach. I'll be right in there.
Probably see a lot of signs tonight, and this will help viewers at home who haven't been plugged into this, "Who's your daddy?" Why don't you give us the back-story on that one?
ELLIOTT: Yes, shockingly, this is in fact, a Major League Baseball licensed shirt. It does say, "Red Sox, who's your daddy?" with a pacifier through the Red Sox logo. Apparently, some dainty Red Sox fans' feelings were so very hurt. They lobbied Major League Baseball.
O'BRIEN: A little smack talk right there, Josh. A little smack talk.
ELLIOTT: If I was -- if I was a Red Sox fan, I would have more of a problem that Pedro Martinez said this in the first place. That's where the quote came from. After a recent loss, he did say that the Yankees were, in fact, his daddy, whatever that might mean.
However, the shirts are still selling briskly here in New York in a few locations. For just $19.99, they can be yours.
O'BRIEN: All right. Are you wearing pin stripes right now? Is that's what's going on, Josh?
ELLIOTT: There might be some pin stripes here. You know, I tried -- I tried to go as neutral as I possibly could.
O'BRIEN: Yes. All right, Josh. Thanks a lot. Enjoy the game tonight.
ELLIOTT: Absolutely.
O'BRIEN: Sure beats working for a living, doesn't it?
ELLIOTT: That's what they tell me.
O'BRIEN: Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Speaking of smack talk, we've got the "CROSSFIRE" guys coming up. Also, a check on the financial markets and Virgin takes on Apple in the iPod world. We're going to tell you what you can expect now that the company is doing something a little differently now.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Three weeks to go, one debate to go, and the race for the White House is about as close as you could possibly get. So who needs to do what tomorrow to come away with a win? You don't suppose our "CROSSFIRE" guys, Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala, have a few thoughts on this? They might.
Gentlemen, good to see you. Tucker just flew into Tempe. His arms are tired, right? TUCKER CARLSON, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Yes. Yes.
O'BRIEN: And what -- just give us the -- set scene for us there. Obviously, a raucous scene behind you there.
CARLSON: Well, it's ASU. It's known for its raucous scenes. You want raucous scenes, you come to Arizona State University.
O'BRIEN: I missed that.
BEGALA: ... the American way.
O'BRIEN: This is the place to do it, ASU, for raucous scenes. There you go; big wide shot. Got that jib camera there, looks like you're in some kind of modular housing there.
PAUL BEGALA, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": We do have some -- we've got some trailers that we're hanging out. But mostly -- look at these students here.
O'BRIEN: Yes.
BEGALA: Every one of them smart, every one of them good looking. Most of them Democrats, and so I like them a lot better. But Republicans are well represented here as well.
O'BRIEN: You're not pandering to the crowd or anything, are you, Paul? All right.
BEGALA: I think we may do a little crowd...
CARLSON: It's staged a little low for us.
O'BRIEN: Now that we've whipped the crowd into a frenzy prematurely in this segment, let's look at the numbers briefly if we could.
Our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows us this. And I could go through the numbers, but the bottom line, dead even. Two words apply here, absolutely dead even.
Does this surprise you, Paul?
BEGALA: What surprises me it's not the margin, and now the polls begin to matter, OK? Now we're in the last weeks of the campaign.
Here's how people ought to interpret them. Don't looked at the gap. It's not if Kerry is up one or Bush is up three. Look at the incumbents vote. The incumbent will not get a single point more than his last poll. Why? Because he's the incumbent. So that is to say, if the election were held today, it would be Kerry 51, Bush 48, Nader 1.
O'BRIEN: That is some kind of new math that I'm unaware of. Tucker, are buying that?
BEGALA: It's just the incumbent has got to be over 50.
CARLSON: What Paul is saying has been valid for the past 24 years...
O'BRIEN: OK.
CARLSON: ... since 1980. I think it's a slightly different situation today, because it's not simply a referendum on the incumbent as re-elects typically are.
The threshold is higher; we're at war. And so it's not simply a matter of do you want to give Bush another four years? If that were the question, Bush would lose.
But it's also a matter of do you want John Kerry to take the helm of a nation at war? I'm not sure Kerry made the sale on that.
So I think Bush has more room for movement in this race in the final days than an incumbent typically does.
O'BRIEN: All right. Let's go through another poll question which is worth batting around here.
Of course, tonight's subject matter, domestic issues, but in this CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, we also asked folks what was the most important issue factoring into your vote for president?
The economy, 29 percent; that's about the same. Terrorism, 26 percent, down a little bit. Iraq, 22 percent, down a little bit. And then health care, from 14 percent to 21 percent.
Now the folks in the Kerry camp have got to read that last number and just about pop the champagne corks, right, Tucker?
CARLSON: Yes. I don't believe it for a second. I mean, you know...
O'BRIEN: You don't believe the numbers?
CARLSON: No, I don't. I mean, I do think -- I don't think it's established that people sometimes in polls give the answers, the responsible answers, the answer they think they ought to give, the economy. It's important. We all know it's important.
If you ask people to define what the economy is or what they mean when they say the economy is the most important thing, it's an entirely different matter.
O'BRIEN: It's like -- it's like when you ask people if you watch reality TV and you say no, I was watching PBS, right, Paul?
CARLSON: I've never seen "The Bachelor," for instance.
O'BRIEN: Yes, never. Millions of people buy the "National Enquirer." You never have one person who did it, right?
All right, so Paul, what's your thought on this health care issue? Is this a sleeper issue?
BEGALA: Miles, we have 45 million people in America who can't afford to pay for health insurance. You know, we have millions of families who have young children. This is what is real in life.
Obviously, the war matters, but health care, the reason it's moving up is because, you know, frankly people thought the president has had four years on this, hasn't done anything. It is the most real issue imaginable when.
When moms and dads cannot afford to pay for health insurance for their kids, it tends to make them a little angry. I think that's why the issue terrain in tomorrow night's debate now favors Kerry.
Kerry has met and even mastered Bush on his favorite issue terrain; that is the war and terrorism. That was the first debate and a good bit of second. The third debate now will mostly play out on issues that are favorable to Kerry.
I think Bush is going to try to counter that is to raise domestic issues where Bush actually does a little bit better. That is these really divisive social issues. I think you'll hear more about Gods, guns, gays and abortion than we've heard from Bush in the last four years tomorrow night.
O'BRIEN: All right. Tucker, is that the goal here? Is it shore up the base? Is it shoring up the base, turning out the vote? What is the goal here, because at this juncture, people's opinions are getting more and more set and concrete, aren't they, Tucker?
CARLSON: Yes. They are, and I think there's no question that Bush has some anxious conservatives out there who aren't as satisfied as they might be with the last four years.
But with respect to the question of the economy, that is a model that has grown stale. It is not, in fact, "the economy, stupid" in this election. You are not going to vote for a candidate you don't think will keep you safe, period. Period. That's not a Bush talking point. That's not Bush's strategy. That's just a fact. It's reality.
O'BRIEN: Tucker, do you think -- has Kerry -- has Kerry won that argument with voters, convincing them?
CARLSON: I think, actually, Kerry -- Kerry is coming at something like a 40-point deficit. The generic Democrat was coming at 40 point -- 40 points behind on the questions.
Kerry's made up a lot of that ground. I think he's done, by any measure, a good job in convincing people he can keep him safe. But I still think the only question that matters in this election is, you know, has he fully convinced people or not. You know? If he has, he'll be president. If he hasn't, he won't.
BEGALA: Look, a lot of people are going to vote on the war, but a whole lot are going to vote on things like health care and jobs. You guys need a good health care program? You need good jobs here in Tempe at ASU?
CARLSON: I don't feel like arguing. You're absolutely right!
O'BRIEN: Shameless pandering to the young crowd there at ASU! All right. Have a great time.
CARLSON: Let the record reflect I did not pander.
O'BRIEN: Got to go now.
BEGALA: I'm proud to pander, Miles.
O'BRIEN: See you, guys.
PHILLIPS: Keep the crowd.
Another company that wants to take a bite out of Apple's iPod. Rhonda Schaffler, live from the New York Stock Exchange with the details -- Rhonda.
(STOCK REPORT)
PHILLIPS: Thanks, Rhonda.
O'BRIEN: And that wraps up this edition of LIVE FROM.
PHILLIPS: Now taking us through the next hour of political headlines, Judy Woodruff's "INSIDE POLITICS." She's live from Tempe, Arizona. Hopefully, it's calmed down a little bit.
Hi, Judy.
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS: It's a noisy crowd. But we love to have these students here with us on the campus of Arizona State.
Kyra, Miles, thank you both.
This is the site of tomorrow night's final presidential debate. Today on "INSIDE POLITICS," we're going get a debate preview from two bipartisan analysts.
Plus, throughout his life, Christopher Reeve fought tirelessly for legalizing stem cell research. Now, following his death, we'll look at the issue and how it affects the race for the White House.
"INSIDE POLITICS" begins in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: In the news now.
We're just getting word about surgery for Saddam Hussein at a medical facility inside the Green Zone in Baghdad. That's the heavily fortified headquarters of U.S. and Iraqi officials.
A U.S. military official tells CNN that hernia surgery was performed two weeks ago without complications.
A delay for the defense. The judge in the Scott Peterson double murder case has recessed for trial -- or recessed, rather, the trial for nearly a week, saying that some legal issues need to be resolved. But he gave no details. Defense was set to begin its case today.
A monumental issue. The Supreme Court agrees to consider whether it's constitutional to display the Ten Commandments on government property. Lower courts have issued conflicting rulings. The Supreme Court banned the Ten Commandments from public schools 24 years ago.
Now stay tuned for "JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS."
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
