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Live From...
Search Continues in Kirksville, Missouri Plane Crash; Calculating Polling Results; Candidates and Healthcare; Interview with George Carlin
Aired October 20, 2004 - 14:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And here's what's happening in the news now. The billionaire prime minister who led Lebanon from the ruins of its civil war has resigned. Rafiq Hariri dissolved his cabinet and announced he won't be forming a new government. This comes after Lebanon's constitution was changed to allow the Syrian-backed president to remain in office, a move strongly opposed by Hariri and the international community
Here in the U.S., despite a flu vaccine shortage, some inmates in federal and state prisons will be getting their flu shots. Prison officials in Missouri say the inmates are high risk, either 65 and older or suffering from a chronic medical condition.
And when it comes to genes -- and we're not talking about the ones you wear -- human beings really not much different than worms in this respect. The same international group that decoded the human genome says it takes only 20 to 25,000 genes to make a human. That's half the estimate it had three years ago and about the same number it takes to make a worm.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Rescuers in Missouri are searchingly for five missing people after a commuter plane crashed near Kirksville. That plane went down last night near the airport. Eight people were killed; two survivors are now in the hospital.
Chris McNear (ph) of our affiliate station KDBI (ph) has the latest on the investigation.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRIS MCNEAR (ph), REPORTER, KDBI (ph): Investigators taking away the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder of American Connection Flight 5966. The flight from Lambert to Kirksville Tuesday night crashing on final approach to the Kirksville Regional Airport. NTSB officials tell us the black boxes appear to be in good shape. They'll be analyzed in Washington, D.C..
CAROL CARMODY, NTSB: The cockpit voice recorder typically would have the last 30 minutes of conversation, so you hear what's going on in the cockpit. And then, the flight data recorder has various parameters showing what the aircraft was doing.
MCNEAR: The Jetstream twin-engine turboprop went down just four miles southwest of the Kirksville Regional Airport in a wooded area. The fiery wreckage spread over a half a mile. Eight of the 15 passengers were dead at scene. Five others are missing, but two survived.
Authorities still hoping to find more people who could have survived the crash.
BRENT BERNHARDT. MISSOURI HIGHWAY PATROL: And most certainly, we don't know at this point. We did a thorough search last night. We had officers out there all night. I'm confident that they did a good search, but I can tell you the area is heavy brush.
COURTNEY COOPER, REPORTER, KTVO: At first, I mean, it was pure adrenaline right off the bat.
MCNEAR: The crash hitting close to home for local reporter/photographer Courtney Cooper. Courtney works for KTVO News in Kirksville and shot the incredible video of the fiery scene.
COOPER: ... I hear morning and groaning, and I realize, wow, that it's not a brushfire -- which we knew. But you realize that there are people involved and that a plane had gone down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARRIS: News across America now -- a rough ride to school for some kids in New York. Their bus was involved in an accident, and it nearly skidded right into a house Staten Island. No one was seriously hurt.
A powerful storm blew heavy winds and rain in California. The rains caused some flooding and mud slides. Some 300,000 people were temporarily without power.
Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Dave Barry is taking some time off. "The Miami Herald" humorist says starting in January he will begin an indefinite leave of absence. Barry says he wants to spend more time with family. His column is carried by some 500 newspapers nationwide.
PHILLIPS: The president of the United States is often referred to as the leader of the free world. A new Web site is lending some credence to that expression. The Web site calls on the global community to weigh in on the race for the White House. Surfers can log onto www.globalvote2004.org. The unofficial results will come 48 hours before the real election on November 2nd.
HARRIS: Back at home, it is tough enough just trying to determine what all the polls of American voters mean. Some polls show the president and Senator Kerry tied; others have President Bush out in front.
How do so many polls come up with different results? To help us sort it out, Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup organization, joins us live from Princeton, New Jersey. Good to see you, Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: Good to see you, Tony.
HARRIS: Well, how do we get such different and varied results from these polls?
NEWPORT: Well, a couple of points. First of all, they're not as different as people might think. For example, there are no polls out there at this moment -- or none that I've seen -- that show John Kerry with the lead or a significant lead. Almost all polls show it either too close to call or Bush with some lead.
Also, the differences, Tony -- it's important to note -- are magnified when people compare the margin -- you know, the difference between the two. But when you just look at a single point estimate -- for example, one poll said Bush has 51 percent of the vote and another says bush has 47 or 48 percent. Really, that's not all that much different. That's two or three percentage point difference, which can be well within the margin of error.
But when you look at the difference between them -- the gap, as we pollsters call it -- you magnify kind of then perceived different.
There are other reasons. There are timing differences. Clearly in a volatile election environment, a poll done three or four days ago, like our last CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll was concluded last Saturday, well, we've had three or four days go by and a lot could have changed. So, current votes could be different for that reason.
And there are methodological differences, as well. Now, some polls have much bigger undecideds to them, so the numbers are lower because they have 10 percent who don't make a choice. And also there are differences, as we've talked about a lot, Tony, in how different pollsters define likely voters, and that too can create differences.
HARRIS: Well, there you go, Frank.
Help me understand how does a voter go from registered -- graduate, maybe -- to likely voter?
NEWPORT: Excellent question. We're asked that a lot. It's something that actually George Gallup at the Gallup Poll has been doing for 50 years, pioneered a lot of this. And most of the companies do it one way or the other.
The idea is not all registered voters vote. So, if we survey scientists, simply say here's what would happen if all people voted, put out registered voter numbers, it wouldn't be giving the users of our poll an accurate representation. So, do our best to try to limit it down to the pool of people we think are most likely to vote.
Now, we do it by asking a series of questions, questions we've developed over the years. And based on how people respond to those questions about interest in the election and how likely they are to vote they think themselves and past history voting, we put it all together, and that's how we develop the pool of people we think are actually most likely to vote.
We do it as a service to the users of our data to provide more information rather than less.
HARRIS: And Frank, help me understand this whole bandwagon effect in polling that we're hearing about?
NEWPORT: Well, that's been around for 50 years. George Gallup wrote a book in the '40s talking about critics who said there was a bandwagon effect. That simply means that if polls show Candidate A ahead, some people have said, "Well, doesn't that mean people would then be more likely to vote for Candidate A and it would actually have an impact on the race?
A, it's hard to determine that scientifically. Social sciences have looked at it, and it's very hard to kind of isolate that that really happens. Lots of candidates, like John Kerry in the Democratic primary earlier this year, was in sixth place. Howard Dean was the winner. And of course, Kerry came from behind. So, clearly there was no bandwagon effect there.
And B is there is an idea that I subscribe to that that's not bad anyhow. People can take polling information into account if they want to, to adjust the vote. It's a legitimate source of information.
HARRIS: Frank Newport, good to talk with you.
NEWPORT: Thank you, Tony. Good to be with you.
HARRIS: Kyra?
PHILLIPS: All right, whether it's the war, the economy, or the flu vaccine, the candidates have different approaches to solving the nation's problems. All this week, we're focusing on President Bush and Senator Kerry's solutions to the major issues facing America.
Today, Aaron Brown looks at candidates and healthcare.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will preserve the system of private medicine that makes America's healthcare the best in the world.
AARON BROWN, HOST, "NEWSNIGHT" (voice-over): The president's current program includes the Medicare Reform Bill passed last year that already provides a tax credit for drug expenses, and privately issued drug discount cards that have had mixed success, and will also create a drug benefit and tax sheltered health savings accounts in 2006.
There is also a program to encourage price competition between brand name and generic drugs, an increase in the number of federally funded healthcare centers in poor communities, and rule changes that make it easier for states to cover more low-income citizens.
In the second term, the president says he would push for the formation of voluntary associations of individuals and small businesses to buy health insurance at lower costs. There would be liability reform to limit the amount patients could win in malpractice lawsuits. Tax credits for long-term care and high deductible health insurance. Tax deductions for low-income families who buy health insurance, and a program to enable coverage for low-income children by a combination of government and faith-based organizations.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Healthcare is not a privilege for the wealthy and the connected and the elected. It is a right for all Americans.
BROWN: For his part, John Kerry says he would allow the importation of cheaper drugs from Canada, overhaul Medicare to provide increased coverage -- including some prescription drugs -- and use government buying power to negotiate lower drug prices.
He would create a federal fund to reimburse employers for the cost of catastrophic health insurance, which would thereby reduce most insurance premiums. Kerry also says he would open the healthcare system used by members of Congress to all Americans, with tax credits for low income purchasers. That he would create a bill of rights for patients in conflict with their HMOs. Restrict some malpractice lawsuits, but not impose a cap on damages. And finally, expand federal and state insurance programs so that all children and 95 percent of all Americans would be covered.
Aaron Brown, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: And tomorrow, it's the economy. We're going to look at both candidates' plans to stimulate economic growth and create more jobs.
HARRIS: You know, he may be toting around his stuff, but you won't find George Carlin with any political baggage. We're hoping he dumps it all right here. LIVE FROM in just a couple of minutes.
And hands down, Tom Cruise is the biggest foreign movie star in Japan. He made history today in Tokyo. We will tell you how.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: And this just into CNN. There has been a natural gas explosion in a suburb of Chicago. And that's at a drugstore. At this point, no report of injuries, and emergency crews -- as can you see -- and firefighters are on the scene. Once again, a natural gas explosion in a suburb of Chicago. No injuries at this time. We will continue to follow this story.
PHILLIPS: Well, George Carlin is a modern man -- digital, smoke- free, multicultural, new wave but old school. George has a personal trainer, personal shopper, personal assistant, and a personal agenda. He's a nonbeliever, overachiever, laid-back, fashion-forward, up- front, down-home, low-rent, high-maintenance, clinically-proven, scientifically-formulated medical-miracle, professional lunatic.
OK, I admit it. I stole every line in this introduction from George Carlin's new book "When Will Jesus Bring the Pork Chops?" -- except professional lunatic. And if you read his book, you're going to know exactly what I'm talking about.
George joins me now live in Atlanta. Good to see you.
GEORGE CARLIN, COMEDIAN: Proud to be associated with the word lunatic, too. I was named for my Uncle George, who spent his adult life in Rockland State Hospital building 17. And he was a certified -- I guess lunatic. We call it the nut house, my brother and I, but I wear the label proudly.
PHILLIPS: So, you were named after George?
CARLIN: I was named after George, because he was the sensitive brother. He was my mother's sensitive brother.
PHILLIPS: Exactly, so he was a big influence in your life?
CARLIN: Well, he leaned over at me at Thanksgiving -- he was allowed to come home for holidays toward the end of his life and his stay, I was a young boy. And he leaned over to me during turkey dinner and he said, "I'm an admiral." And I was so happy that not only did he think he was an admiral, but that apparently he had entrusted me with this information, because none of the others seemed to know.
So, it's a good legacy.
PHILLIPS: So, basically you're this undercover sort of agent that has all this intelligence that's classified?
CARLIN: Yes. I did enjoy your introduction, thank you. And it's nice to follow the natural gas. And I notice the natural gas...
PHILLIPS: Speaking of gas.
CARLIN: ... was "just in." That was marked "just in." Now, there's "just in," there's "breaking news," and there's "flash news" -- somebody is using that now.
PHILLIPS: Who's using "flash news?"
CARLIN: I don't know...
PHILLIPS: Is that FOX?
CARLIN: ... but I heard it a couple of times. It was more urgent than "breaking news," because "breaking news" is often six hours old or 15 days old, still breaking apparently. But "just in" is nice.
PHILLIPS: So, I see you're a big fan of cable television.
CARLIN: I'm a big fan of the world and, therefore, news -- you know, which kind of conflates it all into a package you can have fun with.
PHILLIPS: Well, I understand you're a big fan of politics, also?
CARLIN: Well, I like the game. I like the sport. I like the theater involved. I don't really care about the outcomes. I don't have any high hopes for this culture anymore. I got rid of that. That was a fool's chore.
But I do enjoy what they do to each other, how they do it. I enjoy the game -- they keep score, and it's fun to watch how they cheat, what they do. It's just very entertaining. But I feel a little apart from it.
PHILLIPS: Well, you say that you sort of scoured the American landscape, if I remember properly. Define signs of intelligence to put this book together. Did you find it?
CARLIN: Well, someone else wrote that. I was pleased with it, and I said that's good. You know, but it wasn't my formulation.
PHILLIPS: What's your formulation?
CARLIN: I gave up looking for intelligence a long time ago. I mean, that's one of the hallmarks of American life. There's very little intelligence in the people who live in this place, you know? They just -- we have these wonderful minds we were given, and all we want to do is go to the mall. They've got fat thighs, short pants, and dumb kids, flip-flops with black socks. They're wearing fanny packs and visors and they're eating a corn dog on the cell phone.
PHILLIPS: Don't forget the tattoos.
CARLIN: No. And they're spending money they don't have on things they don't need, paying 18 percent interest for something that costs $32. There's not -- you know, dumber than a second coat of paint, that's what I say. Dumber than a second coat of paint.
PHILLIPS: George -- George, I'm looking through this book, I'm reading, I'm looking for something positive, some piece of inspiration. But it seems like everything in life just sort of annoys you.
CARLIN: Well, it's not so much annoyance as I'm just reporting what I seem, but through my lens, through my filter, you know?
PHILLIPS: Is it an angry filter?
CARLIN: No, it is not. And anyone who's been around me for even a few minutes or a couple of years knows I'm not an angry person. But there is a bit of contempt in it, because I think we squandered wonderful gifts.
I think this species was given a great power of the mind that it has squandered, turned everything over to the merchants and the high priests. And the country was given this wonderful instrument of democracy, and we've kind of let that just go to tatters, go to pieces.
PHILLIPS: Are we too shallow?
CARLIN: Well, for one thing, we don't protect the lowest on the ladder. I mean, you know, a government's job is to protect people from the unfairness in the marketplace. There are some people who can't make it in this marketplace, this market economy, Western democracy. We have a market economy, and if you can't make it, you can't make it.
See, that's what government is supposed to protect against, and they don't do it. They don't do it. And there are people who suffer from it, and that's the sadness of it. We have all the potential to fix that -- we don't bother with it.
PHILLIPS: So, what do we do? I mean...
CARLIN: Nothing, nothing.
PHILLIPS: We got George Bush. We got John Kerry. Do we have any hope here?
CARLIN: No, no.
PHILLIPS: No hope at all?
CARLIN: No, the fun is in watching how this plays out. The country is circling the drain, and the fun is in watching the circles get smaller and faster and faster. You can see the decline. We were at our peak in 1945 when I was eight years old, and ever since then the marketers took over, and Madison Avenue and market research and focus groups and people are told what they want. And then when they get it, they're told why they wanted it. It's just a sad story...
PHILLIPS: So, you don't think anyone thinks for themselves anymore?
CARLIN: Not much. No, not...
PHILLIPS: You sure do.
CARLIN: ... in the great masses. Well, there are obviously some people who have, you know, independent minds and so forth, and I feel like I'm somewhat independent. But no, generally speaking, they're led -- the great American cattle drive, I call it. They're led to the market. But they're not led to the market to be sold; they're there to buy, to do the buying.
And they're branded. You know, at least cattle fight back. We put our brands on -- Nike, Coca-Cola, this and that. We wear our brands proudly. And yet, the cattle -- at least these little calves struggle against...
PHILLIPS: So, if you could pick anyone, anybody living on this earth...
CARLIN: Yeah.
PHILLIPS: ... to be the next president of the United States, somebody who is anti-everything you just said, we all stand for, who would it be? CARLIN: Harpo Marx. Unfortunately, Harpo Marx is not available, not even for a draft.
PHILLIPS: I said on this earth right now.
CARLIN: On this -- well, he's in this earth, which is even closer.
No, I don't presume to know -- or think there's a real solution and that one person can do it, because the place is owned by the ownership class. There's an ownership class in this country. They do what they want.
We're given illusion of choices, you know? But you know the real choice in America? Paper or Plastic. That's your choice. Charge or credit, sir? Aisle or window? And we think we have these choices. We have two political parties, we have 38 flavors of jelly beans. Frivolous things, you have a choice; important things, no choice.
PHILLIPS: All right. I need to you make a choice.
CARLIN: OK.
PHILLIPS: OK, you ready? So, we're looking at your book "When Will Jesus Bring the Pork Chops?" We're looking at the very creative picture here.
CARLIN: Yeah.
PHILLIPS: How cute you at the supper table.
CARLIN: Leonardo da Vinci did my art.
PHILLIPS: Well, we have a couple ideas for you. We have book two, three, and four ready for you, OK?
CARLIN: Ooh, OK.
PHILLIPS: This is book number two. You can see it right here on the screen. Tell me what you think. "I Scream, You Scream" by George Carlin. What do you think?
CARLIN: Don't forget in parenthesis "We all scream for ice cream." Wasn't that...
PHILLIPS: I scream for other things. That's another story.
CARLIN: That's nice. That's...
PHILLIPS: Let's move on to the next one. You like that one? That could be part two?
CARLIN: Yes, yes.
PHILLIPS: Here's the next one. Do you like this one? "Birth of a Genius: Out of My Shell." CARLIN: Well, I'm a little more modest than that, but I like the imagination in it.
PHILLIPS: OK, so you're impressed so far?
CARLIN: Yes. Oh, absolutely.
PHILLIPS: Outstanding. Oh, great. We're cheap, too.
CARLIN: But it is going downhill.
PHILLIPS: It's going downhill? All right, here's the grand finale. You want the grand finale?
CARLIN: Yes, please.
PHILLIPS: Here we go.
CARLIN: Good, it went back uphill again.
PHILLIPS: "American Cynic." You like it?
CARLIN: But I'm not a cynic; I'm a skeptic. There's a difference.
PHILLIPS: There's a -- OK, what's the difference between the two?
CARLIN: The difference is -- I'll tell you who's a cynic. The cynics are the ones, for instance, at the Ford Motor Company who kept the exploding gas tank in because to change gas tank cost more money than to pay off the dead relatives. That's a cynical decision.
I'm a skeptic. I'm a realist. But I'm really not cynical. I just don't believe much. That's a difference, I think.
PHILLIPS: So -- OK, my producer's now telling me a minute. But you'd be surprised, I was supposed to wrap you three minutes ago.
CARLIN: Really. Well, here we are.
PHILLIPS: We've actually floated stuff for you.
CARLIN: Good. Something "just in?"
PHILLIPS: You know what's "just in?"
CARLIN: This "just in," hold on.
PHILLIPS: This "just in"...
CARLIN: No, it's "just out." "Just out."
PHILLIPS: I'm not quite sure what it, is "breaking news," it's "flash news," George Carlin's going to take it from here.
What's the news, George?
CARLIN: The news is we're all still here, and the bad news is that we're all still here. I don't know, you put me on the spot and I didn't have a clever thing to say.
PHILLIPS: I love it!
CARLIN: I'll go with all the stuff that came before.
PHILLIPS: George Carlin, "When Will Jesus Bring the Pork Chops?" I can't wait to have pork chops with you some day.
CARLIN: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: I make pretty good pork chops. You want to come over? A little apple sauce?
CARLIN: Only Fiamma. Fiamma in Las Vegas makes good pork chops.
PHILLIPS: Thank you, George.
CARLIN: Sure, thank you. Thank you very much.
HARRIS: Nice to see you, George.
CARLIN: I appreciate it.
PHILLIPS: I'm sorry. Tony -- by the way, Tony Harris.
CARLIN: Yeah.
HARRIS: How are you, sir? Good to see you.
PHILLIPS: Brand new here at CNN.
CARLIN: I have seen you here often enough, but not so that I've seen you sit here. Isn't it usually Miles and you?
HARRIS: Yes.
PHILLIPS: Yes.
HARRIS: Yes.
CARLIN: Yes.
PHILLIPS: ... very flattered.
CARLIN: But tell him I hate the space program. Tell him...
PHILLIPS: We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back.
HARRIS: Bye, bye show! Bye, bye show!
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CARLIN: Judy Woodruff, if you can get "INSIDE POLITICS," you're a better person than I am. Say hello to Al, and take it!
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": George Carlin, thank you. There's nothing like getting that kind of a toss. Thanks a lot. We appreciate it.
I was going to say, Kyra, to all of you in Atlanta, I'm in farm country today -- Mason City, Iowa. This is a state with only seven electoral votes, but neither John Kerry nor George Bush taking it for granted. Both of them in the state today. I'll be talking with supporters of both candidates -- Karen Hughes, a top adviser to the president, and Christie Vilsack, who's the wife of Iowa's governor -- she's a Democrat.
All that and much more coming up on "INSIDE POLITICS."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired October 20, 2004 - 14:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And here's what's happening in the news now. The billionaire prime minister who led Lebanon from the ruins of its civil war has resigned. Rafiq Hariri dissolved his cabinet and announced he won't be forming a new government. This comes after Lebanon's constitution was changed to allow the Syrian-backed president to remain in office, a move strongly opposed by Hariri and the international community
Here in the U.S., despite a flu vaccine shortage, some inmates in federal and state prisons will be getting their flu shots. Prison officials in Missouri say the inmates are high risk, either 65 and older or suffering from a chronic medical condition.
And when it comes to genes -- and we're not talking about the ones you wear -- human beings really not much different than worms in this respect. The same international group that decoded the human genome says it takes only 20 to 25,000 genes to make a human. That's half the estimate it had three years ago and about the same number it takes to make a worm.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Rescuers in Missouri are searchingly for five missing people after a commuter plane crashed near Kirksville. That plane went down last night near the airport. Eight people were killed; two survivors are now in the hospital.
Chris McNear (ph) of our affiliate station KDBI (ph) has the latest on the investigation.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRIS MCNEAR (ph), REPORTER, KDBI (ph): Investigators taking away the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder of American Connection Flight 5966. The flight from Lambert to Kirksville Tuesday night crashing on final approach to the Kirksville Regional Airport. NTSB officials tell us the black boxes appear to be in good shape. They'll be analyzed in Washington, D.C..
CAROL CARMODY, NTSB: The cockpit voice recorder typically would have the last 30 minutes of conversation, so you hear what's going on in the cockpit. And then, the flight data recorder has various parameters showing what the aircraft was doing.
MCNEAR: The Jetstream twin-engine turboprop went down just four miles southwest of the Kirksville Regional Airport in a wooded area. The fiery wreckage spread over a half a mile. Eight of the 15 passengers were dead at scene. Five others are missing, but two survived.
Authorities still hoping to find more people who could have survived the crash.
BRENT BERNHARDT. MISSOURI HIGHWAY PATROL: And most certainly, we don't know at this point. We did a thorough search last night. We had officers out there all night. I'm confident that they did a good search, but I can tell you the area is heavy brush.
COURTNEY COOPER, REPORTER, KTVO: At first, I mean, it was pure adrenaline right off the bat.
MCNEAR: The crash hitting close to home for local reporter/photographer Courtney Cooper. Courtney works for KTVO News in Kirksville and shot the incredible video of the fiery scene.
COOPER: ... I hear morning and groaning, and I realize, wow, that it's not a brushfire -- which we knew. But you realize that there are people involved and that a plane had gone down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARRIS: News across America now -- a rough ride to school for some kids in New York. Their bus was involved in an accident, and it nearly skidded right into a house Staten Island. No one was seriously hurt.
A powerful storm blew heavy winds and rain in California. The rains caused some flooding and mud slides. Some 300,000 people were temporarily without power.
Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Dave Barry is taking some time off. "The Miami Herald" humorist says starting in January he will begin an indefinite leave of absence. Barry says he wants to spend more time with family. His column is carried by some 500 newspapers nationwide.
PHILLIPS: The president of the United States is often referred to as the leader of the free world. A new Web site is lending some credence to that expression. The Web site calls on the global community to weigh in on the race for the White House. Surfers can log onto www.globalvote2004.org. The unofficial results will come 48 hours before the real election on November 2nd.
HARRIS: Back at home, it is tough enough just trying to determine what all the polls of American voters mean. Some polls show the president and Senator Kerry tied; others have President Bush out in front.
How do so many polls come up with different results? To help us sort it out, Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup organization, joins us live from Princeton, New Jersey. Good to see you, Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: Good to see you, Tony.
HARRIS: Well, how do we get such different and varied results from these polls?
NEWPORT: Well, a couple of points. First of all, they're not as different as people might think. For example, there are no polls out there at this moment -- or none that I've seen -- that show John Kerry with the lead or a significant lead. Almost all polls show it either too close to call or Bush with some lead.
Also, the differences, Tony -- it's important to note -- are magnified when people compare the margin -- you know, the difference between the two. But when you just look at a single point estimate -- for example, one poll said Bush has 51 percent of the vote and another says bush has 47 or 48 percent. Really, that's not all that much different. That's two or three percentage point difference, which can be well within the margin of error.
But when you look at the difference between them -- the gap, as we pollsters call it -- you magnify kind of then perceived different.
There are other reasons. There are timing differences. Clearly in a volatile election environment, a poll done three or four days ago, like our last CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll was concluded last Saturday, well, we've had three or four days go by and a lot could have changed. So, current votes could be different for that reason.
And there are methodological differences, as well. Now, some polls have much bigger undecideds to them, so the numbers are lower because they have 10 percent who don't make a choice. And also there are differences, as we've talked about a lot, Tony, in how different pollsters define likely voters, and that too can create differences.
HARRIS: Well, there you go, Frank.
Help me understand how does a voter go from registered -- graduate, maybe -- to likely voter?
NEWPORT: Excellent question. We're asked that a lot. It's something that actually George Gallup at the Gallup Poll has been doing for 50 years, pioneered a lot of this. And most of the companies do it one way or the other.
The idea is not all registered voters vote. So, if we survey scientists, simply say here's what would happen if all people voted, put out registered voter numbers, it wouldn't be giving the users of our poll an accurate representation. So, do our best to try to limit it down to the pool of people we think are most likely to vote.
Now, we do it by asking a series of questions, questions we've developed over the years. And based on how people respond to those questions about interest in the election and how likely they are to vote they think themselves and past history voting, we put it all together, and that's how we develop the pool of people we think are actually most likely to vote.
We do it as a service to the users of our data to provide more information rather than less.
HARRIS: And Frank, help me understand this whole bandwagon effect in polling that we're hearing about?
NEWPORT: Well, that's been around for 50 years. George Gallup wrote a book in the '40s talking about critics who said there was a bandwagon effect. That simply means that if polls show Candidate A ahead, some people have said, "Well, doesn't that mean people would then be more likely to vote for Candidate A and it would actually have an impact on the race?
A, it's hard to determine that scientifically. Social sciences have looked at it, and it's very hard to kind of isolate that that really happens. Lots of candidates, like John Kerry in the Democratic primary earlier this year, was in sixth place. Howard Dean was the winner. And of course, Kerry came from behind. So, clearly there was no bandwagon effect there.
And B is there is an idea that I subscribe to that that's not bad anyhow. People can take polling information into account if they want to, to adjust the vote. It's a legitimate source of information.
HARRIS: Frank Newport, good to talk with you.
NEWPORT: Thank you, Tony. Good to be with you.
HARRIS: Kyra?
PHILLIPS: All right, whether it's the war, the economy, or the flu vaccine, the candidates have different approaches to solving the nation's problems. All this week, we're focusing on President Bush and Senator Kerry's solutions to the major issues facing America.
Today, Aaron Brown looks at candidates and healthcare.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will preserve the system of private medicine that makes America's healthcare the best in the world.
AARON BROWN, HOST, "NEWSNIGHT" (voice-over): The president's current program includes the Medicare Reform Bill passed last year that already provides a tax credit for drug expenses, and privately issued drug discount cards that have had mixed success, and will also create a drug benefit and tax sheltered health savings accounts in 2006.
There is also a program to encourage price competition between brand name and generic drugs, an increase in the number of federally funded healthcare centers in poor communities, and rule changes that make it easier for states to cover more low-income citizens.
In the second term, the president says he would push for the formation of voluntary associations of individuals and small businesses to buy health insurance at lower costs. There would be liability reform to limit the amount patients could win in malpractice lawsuits. Tax credits for long-term care and high deductible health insurance. Tax deductions for low-income families who buy health insurance, and a program to enable coverage for low-income children by a combination of government and faith-based organizations.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Healthcare is not a privilege for the wealthy and the connected and the elected. It is a right for all Americans.
BROWN: For his part, John Kerry says he would allow the importation of cheaper drugs from Canada, overhaul Medicare to provide increased coverage -- including some prescription drugs -- and use government buying power to negotiate lower drug prices.
He would create a federal fund to reimburse employers for the cost of catastrophic health insurance, which would thereby reduce most insurance premiums. Kerry also says he would open the healthcare system used by members of Congress to all Americans, with tax credits for low income purchasers. That he would create a bill of rights for patients in conflict with their HMOs. Restrict some malpractice lawsuits, but not impose a cap on damages. And finally, expand federal and state insurance programs so that all children and 95 percent of all Americans would be covered.
Aaron Brown, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: And tomorrow, it's the economy. We're going to look at both candidates' plans to stimulate economic growth and create more jobs.
HARRIS: You know, he may be toting around his stuff, but you won't find George Carlin with any political baggage. We're hoping he dumps it all right here. LIVE FROM in just a couple of minutes.
And hands down, Tom Cruise is the biggest foreign movie star in Japan. He made history today in Tokyo. We will tell you how.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: And this just into CNN. There has been a natural gas explosion in a suburb of Chicago. And that's at a drugstore. At this point, no report of injuries, and emergency crews -- as can you see -- and firefighters are on the scene. Once again, a natural gas explosion in a suburb of Chicago. No injuries at this time. We will continue to follow this story.
PHILLIPS: Well, George Carlin is a modern man -- digital, smoke- free, multicultural, new wave but old school. George has a personal trainer, personal shopper, personal assistant, and a personal agenda. He's a nonbeliever, overachiever, laid-back, fashion-forward, up- front, down-home, low-rent, high-maintenance, clinically-proven, scientifically-formulated medical-miracle, professional lunatic.
OK, I admit it. I stole every line in this introduction from George Carlin's new book "When Will Jesus Bring the Pork Chops?" -- except professional lunatic. And if you read his book, you're going to know exactly what I'm talking about.
George joins me now live in Atlanta. Good to see you.
GEORGE CARLIN, COMEDIAN: Proud to be associated with the word lunatic, too. I was named for my Uncle George, who spent his adult life in Rockland State Hospital building 17. And he was a certified -- I guess lunatic. We call it the nut house, my brother and I, but I wear the label proudly.
PHILLIPS: So, you were named after George?
CARLIN: I was named after George, because he was the sensitive brother. He was my mother's sensitive brother.
PHILLIPS: Exactly, so he was a big influence in your life?
CARLIN: Well, he leaned over at me at Thanksgiving -- he was allowed to come home for holidays toward the end of his life and his stay, I was a young boy. And he leaned over to me during turkey dinner and he said, "I'm an admiral." And I was so happy that not only did he think he was an admiral, but that apparently he had entrusted me with this information, because none of the others seemed to know.
So, it's a good legacy.
PHILLIPS: So, basically you're this undercover sort of agent that has all this intelligence that's classified?
CARLIN: Yes. I did enjoy your introduction, thank you. And it's nice to follow the natural gas. And I notice the natural gas...
PHILLIPS: Speaking of gas.
CARLIN: ... was "just in." That was marked "just in." Now, there's "just in," there's "breaking news," and there's "flash news" -- somebody is using that now.
PHILLIPS: Who's using "flash news?"
CARLIN: I don't know...
PHILLIPS: Is that FOX?
CARLIN: ... but I heard it a couple of times. It was more urgent than "breaking news," because "breaking news" is often six hours old or 15 days old, still breaking apparently. But "just in" is nice.
PHILLIPS: So, I see you're a big fan of cable television.
CARLIN: I'm a big fan of the world and, therefore, news -- you know, which kind of conflates it all into a package you can have fun with.
PHILLIPS: Well, I understand you're a big fan of politics, also?
CARLIN: Well, I like the game. I like the sport. I like the theater involved. I don't really care about the outcomes. I don't have any high hopes for this culture anymore. I got rid of that. That was a fool's chore.
But I do enjoy what they do to each other, how they do it. I enjoy the game -- they keep score, and it's fun to watch how they cheat, what they do. It's just very entertaining. But I feel a little apart from it.
PHILLIPS: Well, you say that you sort of scoured the American landscape, if I remember properly. Define signs of intelligence to put this book together. Did you find it?
CARLIN: Well, someone else wrote that. I was pleased with it, and I said that's good. You know, but it wasn't my formulation.
PHILLIPS: What's your formulation?
CARLIN: I gave up looking for intelligence a long time ago. I mean, that's one of the hallmarks of American life. There's very little intelligence in the people who live in this place, you know? They just -- we have these wonderful minds we were given, and all we want to do is go to the mall. They've got fat thighs, short pants, and dumb kids, flip-flops with black socks. They're wearing fanny packs and visors and they're eating a corn dog on the cell phone.
PHILLIPS: Don't forget the tattoos.
CARLIN: No. And they're spending money they don't have on things they don't need, paying 18 percent interest for something that costs $32. There's not -- you know, dumber than a second coat of paint, that's what I say. Dumber than a second coat of paint.
PHILLIPS: George -- George, I'm looking through this book, I'm reading, I'm looking for something positive, some piece of inspiration. But it seems like everything in life just sort of annoys you.
CARLIN: Well, it's not so much annoyance as I'm just reporting what I seem, but through my lens, through my filter, you know?
PHILLIPS: Is it an angry filter?
CARLIN: No, it is not. And anyone who's been around me for even a few minutes or a couple of years knows I'm not an angry person. But there is a bit of contempt in it, because I think we squandered wonderful gifts.
I think this species was given a great power of the mind that it has squandered, turned everything over to the merchants and the high priests. And the country was given this wonderful instrument of democracy, and we've kind of let that just go to tatters, go to pieces.
PHILLIPS: Are we too shallow?
CARLIN: Well, for one thing, we don't protect the lowest on the ladder. I mean, you know, a government's job is to protect people from the unfairness in the marketplace. There are some people who can't make it in this marketplace, this market economy, Western democracy. We have a market economy, and if you can't make it, you can't make it.
See, that's what government is supposed to protect against, and they don't do it. They don't do it. And there are people who suffer from it, and that's the sadness of it. We have all the potential to fix that -- we don't bother with it.
PHILLIPS: So, what do we do? I mean...
CARLIN: Nothing, nothing.
PHILLIPS: We got George Bush. We got John Kerry. Do we have any hope here?
CARLIN: No, no.
PHILLIPS: No hope at all?
CARLIN: No, the fun is in watching how this plays out. The country is circling the drain, and the fun is in watching the circles get smaller and faster and faster. You can see the decline. We were at our peak in 1945 when I was eight years old, and ever since then the marketers took over, and Madison Avenue and market research and focus groups and people are told what they want. And then when they get it, they're told why they wanted it. It's just a sad story...
PHILLIPS: So, you don't think anyone thinks for themselves anymore?
CARLIN: Not much. No, not...
PHILLIPS: You sure do.
CARLIN: ... in the great masses. Well, there are obviously some people who have, you know, independent minds and so forth, and I feel like I'm somewhat independent. But no, generally speaking, they're led -- the great American cattle drive, I call it. They're led to the market. But they're not led to the market to be sold; they're there to buy, to do the buying.
And they're branded. You know, at least cattle fight back. We put our brands on -- Nike, Coca-Cola, this and that. We wear our brands proudly. And yet, the cattle -- at least these little calves struggle against...
PHILLIPS: So, if you could pick anyone, anybody living on this earth...
CARLIN: Yeah.
PHILLIPS: ... to be the next president of the United States, somebody who is anti-everything you just said, we all stand for, who would it be? CARLIN: Harpo Marx. Unfortunately, Harpo Marx is not available, not even for a draft.
PHILLIPS: I said on this earth right now.
CARLIN: On this -- well, he's in this earth, which is even closer.
No, I don't presume to know -- or think there's a real solution and that one person can do it, because the place is owned by the ownership class. There's an ownership class in this country. They do what they want.
We're given illusion of choices, you know? But you know the real choice in America? Paper or Plastic. That's your choice. Charge or credit, sir? Aisle or window? And we think we have these choices. We have two political parties, we have 38 flavors of jelly beans. Frivolous things, you have a choice; important things, no choice.
PHILLIPS: All right. I need to you make a choice.
CARLIN: OK.
PHILLIPS: OK, you ready? So, we're looking at your book "When Will Jesus Bring the Pork Chops?" We're looking at the very creative picture here.
CARLIN: Yeah.
PHILLIPS: How cute you at the supper table.
CARLIN: Leonardo da Vinci did my art.
PHILLIPS: Well, we have a couple ideas for you. We have book two, three, and four ready for you, OK?
CARLIN: Ooh, OK.
PHILLIPS: This is book number two. You can see it right here on the screen. Tell me what you think. "I Scream, You Scream" by George Carlin. What do you think?
CARLIN: Don't forget in parenthesis "We all scream for ice cream." Wasn't that...
PHILLIPS: I scream for other things. That's another story.
CARLIN: That's nice. That's...
PHILLIPS: Let's move on to the next one. You like that one? That could be part two?
CARLIN: Yes, yes.
PHILLIPS: Here's the next one. Do you like this one? "Birth of a Genius: Out of My Shell." CARLIN: Well, I'm a little more modest than that, but I like the imagination in it.
PHILLIPS: OK, so you're impressed so far?
CARLIN: Yes. Oh, absolutely.
PHILLIPS: Outstanding. Oh, great. We're cheap, too.
CARLIN: But it is going downhill.
PHILLIPS: It's going downhill? All right, here's the grand finale. You want the grand finale?
CARLIN: Yes, please.
PHILLIPS: Here we go.
CARLIN: Good, it went back uphill again.
PHILLIPS: "American Cynic." You like it?
CARLIN: But I'm not a cynic; I'm a skeptic. There's a difference.
PHILLIPS: There's a -- OK, what's the difference between the two?
CARLIN: The difference is -- I'll tell you who's a cynic. The cynics are the ones, for instance, at the Ford Motor Company who kept the exploding gas tank in because to change gas tank cost more money than to pay off the dead relatives. That's a cynical decision.
I'm a skeptic. I'm a realist. But I'm really not cynical. I just don't believe much. That's a difference, I think.
PHILLIPS: So -- OK, my producer's now telling me a minute. But you'd be surprised, I was supposed to wrap you three minutes ago.
CARLIN: Really. Well, here we are.
PHILLIPS: We've actually floated stuff for you.
CARLIN: Good. Something "just in?"
PHILLIPS: You know what's "just in?"
CARLIN: This "just in," hold on.
PHILLIPS: This "just in"...
CARLIN: No, it's "just out." "Just out."
PHILLIPS: I'm not quite sure what it, is "breaking news," it's "flash news," George Carlin's going to take it from here.
What's the news, George?
CARLIN: The news is we're all still here, and the bad news is that we're all still here. I don't know, you put me on the spot and I didn't have a clever thing to say.
PHILLIPS: I love it!
CARLIN: I'll go with all the stuff that came before.
PHILLIPS: George Carlin, "When Will Jesus Bring the Pork Chops?" I can't wait to have pork chops with you some day.
CARLIN: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: I make pretty good pork chops. You want to come over? A little apple sauce?
CARLIN: Only Fiamma. Fiamma in Las Vegas makes good pork chops.
PHILLIPS: Thank you, George.
CARLIN: Sure, thank you. Thank you very much.
HARRIS: Nice to see you, George.
CARLIN: I appreciate it.
PHILLIPS: I'm sorry. Tony -- by the way, Tony Harris.
CARLIN: Yeah.
HARRIS: How are you, sir? Good to see you.
PHILLIPS: Brand new here at CNN.
CARLIN: I have seen you here often enough, but not so that I've seen you sit here. Isn't it usually Miles and you?
HARRIS: Yes.
PHILLIPS: Yes.
HARRIS: Yes.
CARLIN: Yes.
PHILLIPS: ... very flattered.
CARLIN: But tell him I hate the space program. Tell him...
PHILLIPS: We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back.
HARRIS: Bye, bye show! Bye, bye show!
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CARLIN: Judy Woodruff, if you can get "INSIDE POLITICS," you're a better person than I am. Say hello to Al, and take it!
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": George Carlin, thank you. There's nothing like getting that kind of a toss. Thanks a lot. We appreciate it.
I was going to say, Kyra, to all of you in Atlanta, I'm in farm country today -- Mason City, Iowa. This is a state with only seven electoral votes, but neither John Kerry nor George Bush taking it for granted. Both of them in the state today. I'll be talking with supporters of both candidates -- Karen Hughes, a top adviser to the president, and Christie Vilsack, who's the wife of Iowa's governor -- she's a Democrat.
All that and much more coming up on "INSIDE POLITICS."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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