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Game Three of World Series Tonight; Little Change in Presidential Polls; Israel's Parliament Approved Plan To Withdraw From Gaza; Shipping Backup May Delay Holiday Items

Aired October 26, 2004 - 14:28   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: If you're in Atlanta, join us for the CNN tour.
All right, the Sox lead the World Series two games to nil. I'll say it again, the Sox lead 2-0. But there is game three to contend it. It ain't over until it's over, all that stuff. And the Cardinals are a formidable foe. They haven't lost a home game during the postseason.

Larry smith, CNN Sports, joining us from outside Busch Stadium to talk a little bit more about tonight's match up. The fans there in St. Louis, they're savvy, a good baseball town, and therefore they know, Larry, they must be -- well, they've got to be a little stressed.

LARRY SMITH, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're a little concerned. I mean, you're down 0-2. But you're right, though, the Cardinals and the Red Sox are unbeaten at home in these playoffs. Three big questions, though, Miles, as you go into this really, tonight's game three.

One: Will Scott Rolen, the Cardinal's National League Most Valuable Player candidate, will he break through and get his first hit after going hitless in the first two games in the series, hitting only .184 in the playoffs.

Two: Will Boston's Pedro Martinez come through with the kind of playoff performance we have yet to see for the right-handed ace for the Red Sox.

And three: The weather -- thunderstorms earlier today. There's been quite a bit of rain in St. Louis. It has tapered off just a bit, but the question is will it hold off for tonight? We will see. The tarp is on the field trying to keep it ready for these two teams to get going.

Pedro Martinez, once again, is the big story. The Red Sox ace undisputed over the years until he shares that title this year with Curt Schilling coming on board. But he has really struggled late in the season. Winless in September, just 1-1 in the postseason with an earned run average of over five. The Red Sox need him to come through. They would love to go up three games to none as Martinez takes the mound in his first World Series appearance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JOHNNY DAMON, RED SOX OUTFIELDER: He's the big reason why we're here, you know? All these years, everything's been put on his shoulder. He was the only pitcher who can actually help them win a game in the postseason. Now, we have other guys who can come and contribute. So, it's going to be pretty awesome.

DEREK LOWE, RED SOX PITCHER: You couldn't ask for a better guy, you know, in my eyes. You know, a guy who's been here the longest. He's got an opportunity to go out there and give us a 3-0 lead. And you're going to see his best. You know, it doesn't guarantee a win, but you know, you know he's going to go out there and give us the effort that, you know, we all come to expect from him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMITH: Well, taking the mound for the Cardinals is Jeff Suppan, who is a former Boston teammate of Martinez and will know these Boston hitters better than anybody probably on the Cardinals staff. And he'll try to do what Cardinals pitching has yet to do, and that is cool off this red hot Boston offense.

Of the eight position players in the starting lineup tonight, every single one of them got at least one hit in the two wins in Boston. But again, the Cardinals fans here excited that the World Series is back here for the first time since 1987, but concerned because right now the pitching -- Cardinal pitching has not looked good, has not fared well against this Boston offense.

Miles, let's go back to you.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about Pedro Martinez for just a moment. To a certain extent, I think he was psyched out by the Yankees, you know, all that "Who's your daddy" thing. Is that lingering, or is there something else wrong with him perhaps that he's not letting on to?

SMITH: No, I don't think so. I mean, he's still one of the best pitchers in the game. Everyone has slumps, and you heard right there from some of his teammates that they would not, you know, rather have anybody in this position than him.

But let's face it, you get a guy like him, he's won three Cy Young Awards in his career as the top pitcher in his league. He's won them in both National and the American leagues. You get a guy like that in your third game already with a 2-0 lead, I think any team in baseball would take that. He'll come through for them, that's at least what they hope anyway.

O'BRIEN: Of course, Red Sox fans, all they think about is how crushing the ultimate disappointment would be.

SMITH: That's right. And keep in mind they were up 2-0 against the Mets in 1986. They still lost the series, so...

O'BRIEN: No, no, please don't remind us. We all know. We're like abused children. Thank you very much, Larry Smith. Enjoy the game tonight. Stay dry. SMITH: OK.

O'BRIEN: Cingular Wireless and AT&T Wireless have completed their merger after getting some approval from the FCC. So, what does the combination between for their customers? Mary Snow at the New York Stock Exchange on the line, so to speak, with the story. Hi, Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Miles. And you know, there are plus or minuses depending on who you talk to. But the fact is that this creates the largest cell phone operator in the country. This deal was $41 billion.

Together, Cingular and AT&T Wireless have more than 47 million customers and 70,000 employees. A lot of people can be affected by this deal. Analysts are predicting a number of employee layoffs. Consumer groups are projecting the level of service will eventually decline unless competition will raise prices ultimately for consumers.

Some say, though, that the deal may prove beneficial for customers saying that AT&T customers could get better coverage. Those who use Cingular could get faster connections to the Web on phones.

Now, one hang-up in the deal, so to speak, New York and California customers could see worse coverage for some time before it gets any better -- Miles?

O'BRIEN: And this will make them bigger than, "Can you hear me now," Verizon, right?

SNOW: That's right. It kind of leap frogs above Verizon now as number one.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk about consumer confidence. Folks thinking about Christmas now, I suspect. And some bad reports out there, aren't there?

SNOW: Yeah, with, you know, gas prices the way they are among other things, the latest pulse on the economy coming from a Conference Board survey showing that consumer confidence fell in October to its lowest level in seven months. This is the third straight decline for the index. That does not bode well for consumer spending.

However, investors not really paying that much attention to this report today. Blue chips have been in the plus column, making a healthy comeback after five straight losing sessions. Right now, the Dow Industrials up 97 points. Nasdaq lagging behind just slightly higher today.

And that is the latest from Wall Street. Coming up later this hour, better take a good look at you Christmas list this year, because a lot of gifts may be on backorder. I'll explain when CNN's LIVE FROM continues in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Here's what's happening now in the news.

Seven days until the election. Both President Bush and his Democratic rival, John Kerry, out wooing voters in key states. The president in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and in Michigan, in Detroit, while Kerry addresses crowds in Iowa and Minnesota. We'll talk live with Gallup's editor-in-chief in just a moment.

A historic vote in Israel -- the parliament voting on a plan to withdraw Jewish settlers and Israeli troops from Gaza and parts of the West Bank. The vote will be close. Live report from Jerusalem just moments away.

And federal safety officials are to rule today on what caused the second deadliest plane crash on U.S. soil. This morning, regulators told the National Transportation Safety Board the first officer of American Airlines Flight 587 moved the rudder so sharply that the tail snapped off. The crash in Queens, New York, killed 265.

Seven days until Election Day. The candidates busy trying to sway voters in key battleground states. So, what do the polls saying, you might ask? Gallup's editor-in-chief Frank Newport joining us live with the latest number.

One week to go -- Frank, I know you're glad to say that, because I'm sure you and your staff are pretty tired. Where do things stand right now?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: Well, actually, we love elections. That's how George Gallup got started way back in 1936. That election, you remember well, Miles, between FDR and Alf Landon that FDR won to a lot of people's surprise, but not George Gallup's.

Well, here's the popular vote. At this point, we're tracking the popular vote, Miles, primarily to give us an indicator of what's happening. Because as you mentioned in the introduction, it's the key battleground states that really matter. It's now 51-46 among likely voters. Actually, it's just two points for Bush among registered voters. So, Bush has a small lead based on our estimation in the national popular vote. It's been closing some since the last time we polled. And it's by no means a large lead.

Now, one way we can look at what's happening with those battleground states is to split them out in our national poll. This is really fascinating, because in the so-called red states -- now, those are the states that Bush won comfortably by more than five points in 2000, he's way ahead of Kerry. It really doesn't matter -- he can pile up all the margins he wants in Texas and Alabama and Utah. it's not going to affect the electoral college.

Now, Kerry, not quite as far ahead, but he's ahead in the blue states. Those are Massachusetts and Maryland and Illinois and New York and California -- states that Gore won comfortably last time. Looks like Kerry is ahead in those.

But here's the battle. We separated out those states that were within a five-point margin in 2000, dead even at that point. And that's, of course, where the election is right here. And that's why you're seeing Kerry and Bush, Miles, in all of the news footage we see just in a handful of states, because that's going to tomorrow who wins.

O'BRIEN: All right. Frank, you know, a lot of elections we worry about voter apathy. I don't think that that's necessarily the case this time. How seriously are folks taking this particular election, will that impact turnout, do you think?

NEWPORT: Well, it absolutely will impact turnout. We're all predicting a much higher turnout, particularly than in 2000 and 1996. It's the obverse of voter apathy, voters are extremely emotional about this election, unlike a lot of them where we -- they will tell pollsters, oh, it doesn't matter who wins, both of the candidates are the same, big deal. Not so this time.

Look at this question from the weekend poll. Are you afraid of what will happen if your candidate loses? That's the question we put to people. and 54 percent said yes strongly, and another 22 percent just agree somewhat. Put those together, it's about three-quarters of Americans who are so emotionally attached to their candidate, whoever that might be, Miles, that they say they are really worried what will happen if the other guy wins.

O'BRIEN: All right. Final thought here then, what are the issues that are driving people? What has them so concerned?

NEWPORT: Well, there are a lot of issues out there. The big three are Iraq, terrorism and domestic issues. But really, this is kind of the election in a nutshell. Here it is. If voters are concerned about terrorism, they're more likely to be voting for Bush. Those are Bush voters, 52 percent say terrorism is extremely important to their vote. Only 38 percent of Kerry voters in the blue say that terrorism is extremely important if they decide the vote.

But look at the two domestic issues I've put up here, economy and health care, see how high the blue bars are for both of them. Kerry voters say those are the issues that are going to be important in making their decision, in the smaller red bars, the Bush voters say they're not as important.

So if it is agreed that this election hones in on domestic issues, Kerry does better, if it is agreed that voters are focused on terrorism as the major issue, Bush does better. And that's kind of the election in a nutshell -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Election in a nutshell. Frank Newport, thank you very much. Would that it were that easy. Thank you very much.

Now the campaign and the issue of Iraq, at a town hall meeting in Ohio last night, Vice President Cheney said the American-led effort to turn Iraq around is a -- and these are his words, "a remarkable success story."

All right, earlier we asked you for e-mails on that thought. Here's what some of you had to say about Cheney's assessment. Robert weighs in on this one: "This war was ill-conceived from the start, unnecessary for us to go alone, and becomes more of a disaster every day that passes. We now learn that 20,000 more troops will be needed, another $70 billion, making the cost to U.S. taxpayers close to $225 billion. Can you imagine the good that amount of money could have done here at home?"

All right. Kind of a counterpoint to this: "I think in many ways, yes, it is a success," this next person says. "Remember in World War II, over 2000 Americans were killed on Omaha Beach in one day and over 20,000 killed in the campaign in North Africa. The price of freedom is often high and we are in another world war to fight terrorism and dictators who support terrorists. We have freed millions and stopped Saddam Hussein from brutalizing his people and his neighbors." That comes from Bruce.

Here's another one: "My question for the vice president is what exactly did we succeed in doing in Iraq? Defeating the decrepit Iraqi military? Capturing Saddam Hussein? If those are examples of our success, then I have to wonder if Mr. Cheney believes it was worth the lives of 1100 of our soldiers, the disrespect of our allies and $200 billion of our money." He goes on to ask about where's the WMD.

O'BRIEN: One more thought to balance it out: "I have been a long-time supporter of the Bush-Cheney administration, confounded at the vice president's view" -- actually that doesn't balance it out. There is more of the same. We're just going to leave it at that. But suffice it to say, there were a lot of comments along those lines.

At this hour, Israel's parliament has just approved a controversial and a historic plan to withdraw from Gaza, but will the vote and months of bitter political debate? CNN's Guy Raz live in Jerusalem with the latest on this -- Guy.

GUY RAZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Miles, a historic vote has now taken place in the Israeli parliament, 67 members of the Israeli Knesset or parliament have voted to approve a measure to begin evacuating all 21 Jewish settlements from Gaza by the end of next year.

Now for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a major victory. This is a man who has been regarded as the father of the settlements movement, someone who has encouraged Israelis to settle on land the country occupied since 1967.

It wasn't clear whether it was going to pass, and to give you a sense of just how divisive this vote was, at least half of Mr. Sharon's own hard-line, right-wing Likud Party members voted against the plan, and in order to win approval he had to depend on support from opposition parties, particularly the center-left Labor Party led by former Prime Minister Shimon Peres.

Now that the vote is complete, Israel is expected to begin the process of evacuating all of those settlements by next summer, settlements that is in the Gaza strip, in an area that Israel has occupied since 1967 -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Guy Raz, thank you very much, appreciate it. Coming up on our program: A "Saturday Night Live" slip up can't keep Ashlee Simpson off the stage. Details about how the pop star is trying to salvage her reputation.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Teen singer Ashlee Simpson giving her side of the story after her lip-synching fiasco on "Saturday Night Live". Actually she has given several sides of that story already. Another teenage actress is reportedly recovering in a Los Angeles hospital. Just a few of the items on the entertainment docket today. CNN entertainment correspondent Sibila Vargas is standing by live with details.

Hello, Sibila.

SIBILA VARGAS, CNN ENTERTAINMENT CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Hi, Miles. Well, Linkin Park and Usher were definitely the big winners at last night's Radio Music Awards, but the night belonged to Ashlee Simpson, where everybody was asking the question, is it live or is it Memorex? Well, the singer finally got a chance to redeem herself.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ASHLEE SIMPSON, SINGER: It's the wrong song. It's the wrong song, guys. Just kidding, you guys!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VARGAS: No, it wasn't a case of deja vu, the actress was just having a little fun, making light of her SNL snafu, when it appeared that she was caught in the act of preparing to lip-synch. Ashlee went onto sing "Autobiography" last night, the song that she was supposed to sing on "Saturday Night Live," and this time it went off without a hitch -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right. Do we know she really sang it, though?

VARGAS: I think she did. It was clear.

O'BRIEN: All right. Now she blamed it on a computer glitch. At least that was one of the explanations I heard. What is SNL saying about that?

VARGAS: Well, Miles, we caught up with the executive producer, Lorne Michaels, in Washington, D.C., last night, where he was being honored with the Kennedy Center's Mark Twain Award. Now he admitted that the show allows some lip-synching, especially when it comes to singers with heavy dance routines, but insists it's still live, only that the performers sing with a backup track.

Now, in other news, actress Lindsay Lohan is not feeling very well these days. The 18-year-old has been forced to halt production on her new film, "Herbie: Fully Loaded," and a cameo on "That 70s Show" because of a high fever. The "Mean Girls" star was admitted to a Los Angeles hospital last Thursday after being ill for several days and running a temperature as high as 103 degrees. We, of course, wish her a very speedy recovery -- Miles?

O'BRIEN: Yes, we do. Sibila Vargas, thank you very much.

You may not be thinking about Christmas just yet -- maybe you are. But retailers certainly are. And there may be growing concern about how they're going to stock their shelves for holiday shoppers. We'll have details for you in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Well, billions of dollars of imports are caught up in a transit mess, and it may put a crimp on your holiday shopping list. Mary Snow will unravel all this for us from the New York Stock Exchange. Hello, Mary.

SNOW: Hi there, Miles.

Yeah, a bit of a traffic jam it seems. This is the time of year when holiday items start arriving from overseas. This year, though, cargo ships, trains, trucks, all backed up mainly because imports from Asia increased this year.

An importing trade group told CNN that ports in Los Angeles and Vancouver were clogged just drowning in riches, so to speak. The backup is so bad as many as 70 cargo ships are waiting to unload in L.A. alone. Now retailers -- some of them, anyway -- are worried about their shipments making it to stores. L.L. Bean says some of its shipments are arriving about five days late. "The New York Times" reports that Crate & Barrel opted to fly in some of its goods.

And Miles, it sounds like a good excuse, if you don't get that gift on time, now you know who to blame.

O'BRIEN: I'm writing it down right now. Yes, your gift is in a container somewhere out to sea, honey. I'm sure that will go over really well.

All right. Let's talk about insurance stocks today. They have been leading a charge.

SNOW: Yeah, and they have certainly been really beaten down in the past week or so. Today, they are rebounding. AIG is helping boost blue chips. That stock alone is up nearly $4, about seven percent. Marsh & McLennan, the company at the center of the insurance company investigation, was told it will no longer face criminal charges for alleged bid-rigging. This, after its CEO and chairman resigned. That's caused a bit of relief among insurance stocks, and it's helped lift stocks overall.

Let's take a look at the major averages. The Dow Jones Industrial Average right now posting a triple-digit lead, up 113 points. It's been able to hold onto its gains as we approach the final hour of this trading session. The Nasdaq lagging behind, right now just a few points higher. And that is the latest from Wall Street. Miles, back to you.

O'BRIEN: Thank you very much, Mary Snow. We'll see you tomorrow, right? Back tomorrow? OK.

That wraps up this edition of LIVE FROM. And now to take us through the next 90 minutes of political headlines, Judy Woodruff -- driving the bus there with "INSIDE POLITICS," with the Election Express in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. It's about time for a trade-in on that bus, I think, Judy. But nevertheless, only a week to go.

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": We try not to look under the hood too closely, Miles. Thanks very much.

Only a week to go -- for the second day in the row, though, I am in Pennsylvania today, the state capital Harrisburg.

Today, I'm going to talk with the governor, Ed Rendell, and with U.S. Commerce Secretary Don Evans about what the candidates are doing to try to win this state's 21 electoral votes.

Plus, two recent polls show an increasingly close race in traditionally Democratic Hawaii. Our Bruce Morton looks at whether the Aloha State is becoming of battleground. "INSIDE POLITICS" begins in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired October 26, 2004 - 14:28   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: If you're in Atlanta, join us for the CNN tour.
All right, the Sox lead the World Series two games to nil. I'll say it again, the Sox lead 2-0. But there is game three to contend it. It ain't over until it's over, all that stuff. And the Cardinals are a formidable foe. They haven't lost a home game during the postseason.

Larry smith, CNN Sports, joining us from outside Busch Stadium to talk a little bit more about tonight's match up. The fans there in St. Louis, they're savvy, a good baseball town, and therefore they know, Larry, they must be -- well, they've got to be a little stressed.

LARRY SMITH, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're a little concerned. I mean, you're down 0-2. But you're right, though, the Cardinals and the Red Sox are unbeaten at home in these playoffs. Three big questions, though, Miles, as you go into this really, tonight's game three.

One: Will Scott Rolen, the Cardinal's National League Most Valuable Player candidate, will he break through and get his first hit after going hitless in the first two games in the series, hitting only .184 in the playoffs.

Two: Will Boston's Pedro Martinez come through with the kind of playoff performance we have yet to see for the right-handed ace for the Red Sox.

And three: The weather -- thunderstorms earlier today. There's been quite a bit of rain in St. Louis. It has tapered off just a bit, but the question is will it hold off for tonight? We will see. The tarp is on the field trying to keep it ready for these two teams to get going.

Pedro Martinez, once again, is the big story. The Red Sox ace undisputed over the years until he shares that title this year with Curt Schilling coming on board. But he has really struggled late in the season. Winless in September, just 1-1 in the postseason with an earned run average of over five. The Red Sox need him to come through. They would love to go up three games to none as Martinez takes the mound in his first World Series appearance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JOHNNY DAMON, RED SOX OUTFIELDER: He's the big reason why we're here, you know? All these years, everything's been put on his shoulder. He was the only pitcher who can actually help them win a game in the postseason. Now, we have other guys who can come and contribute. So, it's going to be pretty awesome.

DEREK LOWE, RED SOX PITCHER: You couldn't ask for a better guy, you know, in my eyes. You know, a guy who's been here the longest. He's got an opportunity to go out there and give us a 3-0 lead. And you're going to see his best. You know, it doesn't guarantee a win, but you know, you know he's going to go out there and give us the effort that, you know, we all come to expect from him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMITH: Well, taking the mound for the Cardinals is Jeff Suppan, who is a former Boston teammate of Martinez and will know these Boston hitters better than anybody probably on the Cardinals staff. And he'll try to do what Cardinals pitching has yet to do, and that is cool off this red hot Boston offense.

Of the eight position players in the starting lineup tonight, every single one of them got at least one hit in the two wins in Boston. But again, the Cardinals fans here excited that the World Series is back here for the first time since 1987, but concerned because right now the pitching -- Cardinal pitching has not looked good, has not fared well against this Boston offense.

Miles, let's go back to you.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about Pedro Martinez for just a moment. To a certain extent, I think he was psyched out by the Yankees, you know, all that "Who's your daddy" thing. Is that lingering, or is there something else wrong with him perhaps that he's not letting on to?

SMITH: No, I don't think so. I mean, he's still one of the best pitchers in the game. Everyone has slumps, and you heard right there from some of his teammates that they would not, you know, rather have anybody in this position than him.

But let's face it, you get a guy like him, he's won three Cy Young Awards in his career as the top pitcher in his league. He's won them in both National and the American leagues. You get a guy like that in your third game already with a 2-0 lead, I think any team in baseball would take that. He'll come through for them, that's at least what they hope anyway.

O'BRIEN: Of course, Red Sox fans, all they think about is how crushing the ultimate disappointment would be.

SMITH: That's right. And keep in mind they were up 2-0 against the Mets in 1986. They still lost the series, so...

O'BRIEN: No, no, please don't remind us. We all know. We're like abused children. Thank you very much, Larry Smith. Enjoy the game tonight. Stay dry. SMITH: OK.

O'BRIEN: Cingular Wireless and AT&T Wireless have completed their merger after getting some approval from the FCC. So, what does the combination between for their customers? Mary Snow at the New York Stock Exchange on the line, so to speak, with the story. Hi, Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Miles. And you know, there are plus or minuses depending on who you talk to. But the fact is that this creates the largest cell phone operator in the country. This deal was $41 billion.

Together, Cingular and AT&T Wireless have more than 47 million customers and 70,000 employees. A lot of people can be affected by this deal. Analysts are predicting a number of employee layoffs. Consumer groups are projecting the level of service will eventually decline unless competition will raise prices ultimately for consumers.

Some say, though, that the deal may prove beneficial for customers saying that AT&T customers could get better coverage. Those who use Cingular could get faster connections to the Web on phones.

Now, one hang-up in the deal, so to speak, New York and California customers could see worse coverage for some time before it gets any better -- Miles?

O'BRIEN: And this will make them bigger than, "Can you hear me now," Verizon, right?

SNOW: That's right. It kind of leap frogs above Verizon now as number one.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk about consumer confidence. Folks thinking about Christmas now, I suspect. And some bad reports out there, aren't there?

SNOW: Yeah, with, you know, gas prices the way they are among other things, the latest pulse on the economy coming from a Conference Board survey showing that consumer confidence fell in October to its lowest level in seven months. This is the third straight decline for the index. That does not bode well for consumer spending.

However, investors not really paying that much attention to this report today. Blue chips have been in the plus column, making a healthy comeback after five straight losing sessions. Right now, the Dow Industrials up 97 points. Nasdaq lagging behind just slightly higher today.

And that is the latest from Wall Street. Coming up later this hour, better take a good look at you Christmas list this year, because a lot of gifts may be on backorder. I'll explain when CNN's LIVE FROM continues in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Here's what's happening now in the news.

Seven days until the election. Both President Bush and his Democratic rival, John Kerry, out wooing voters in key states. The president in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and in Michigan, in Detroit, while Kerry addresses crowds in Iowa and Minnesota. We'll talk live with Gallup's editor-in-chief in just a moment.

A historic vote in Israel -- the parliament voting on a plan to withdraw Jewish settlers and Israeli troops from Gaza and parts of the West Bank. The vote will be close. Live report from Jerusalem just moments away.

And federal safety officials are to rule today on what caused the second deadliest plane crash on U.S. soil. This morning, regulators told the National Transportation Safety Board the first officer of American Airlines Flight 587 moved the rudder so sharply that the tail snapped off. The crash in Queens, New York, killed 265.

Seven days until Election Day. The candidates busy trying to sway voters in key battleground states. So, what do the polls saying, you might ask? Gallup's editor-in-chief Frank Newport joining us live with the latest number.

One week to go -- Frank, I know you're glad to say that, because I'm sure you and your staff are pretty tired. Where do things stand right now?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP: Well, actually, we love elections. That's how George Gallup got started way back in 1936. That election, you remember well, Miles, between FDR and Alf Landon that FDR won to a lot of people's surprise, but not George Gallup's.

Well, here's the popular vote. At this point, we're tracking the popular vote, Miles, primarily to give us an indicator of what's happening. Because as you mentioned in the introduction, it's the key battleground states that really matter. It's now 51-46 among likely voters. Actually, it's just two points for Bush among registered voters. So, Bush has a small lead based on our estimation in the national popular vote. It's been closing some since the last time we polled. And it's by no means a large lead.

Now, one way we can look at what's happening with those battleground states is to split them out in our national poll. This is really fascinating, because in the so-called red states -- now, those are the states that Bush won comfortably by more than five points in 2000, he's way ahead of Kerry. It really doesn't matter -- he can pile up all the margins he wants in Texas and Alabama and Utah. it's not going to affect the electoral college.

Now, Kerry, not quite as far ahead, but he's ahead in the blue states. Those are Massachusetts and Maryland and Illinois and New York and California -- states that Gore won comfortably last time. Looks like Kerry is ahead in those.

But here's the battle. We separated out those states that were within a five-point margin in 2000, dead even at that point. And that's, of course, where the election is right here. And that's why you're seeing Kerry and Bush, Miles, in all of the news footage we see just in a handful of states, because that's going to tomorrow who wins.

O'BRIEN: All right. Frank, you know, a lot of elections we worry about voter apathy. I don't think that that's necessarily the case this time. How seriously are folks taking this particular election, will that impact turnout, do you think?

NEWPORT: Well, it absolutely will impact turnout. We're all predicting a much higher turnout, particularly than in 2000 and 1996. It's the obverse of voter apathy, voters are extremely emotional about this election, unlike a lot of them where we -- they will tell pollsters, oh, it doesn't matter who wins, both of the candidates are the same, big deal. Not so this time.

Look at this question from the weekend poll. Are you afraid of what will happen if your candidate loses? That's the question we put to people. and 54 percent said yes strongly, and another 22 percent just agree somewhat. Put those together, it's about three-quarters of Americans who are so emotionally attached to their candidate, whoever that might be, Miles, that they say they are really worried what will happen if the other guy wins.

O'BRIEN: All right. Final thought here then, what are the issues that are driving people? What has them so concerned?

NEWPORT: Well, there are a lot of issues out there. The big three are Iraq, terrorism and domestic issues. But really, this is kind of the election in a nutshell. Here it is. If voters are concerned about terrorism, they're more likely to be voting for Bush. Those are Bush voters, 52 percent say terrorism is extremely important to their vote. Only 38 percent of Kerry voters in the blue say that terrorism is extremely important if they decide the vote.

But look at the two domestic issues I've put up here, economy and health care, see how high the blue bars are for both of them. Kerry voters say those are the issues that are going to be important in making their decision, in the smaller red bars, the Bush voters say they're not as important.

So if it is agreed that this election hones in on domestic issues, Kerry does better, if it is agreed that voters are focused on terrorism as the major issue, Bush does better. And that's kind of the election in a nutshell -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Election in a nutshell. Frank Newport, thank you very much. Would that it were that easy. Thank you very much.

Now the campaign and the issue of Iraq, at a town hall meeting in Ohio last night, Vice President Cheney said the American-led effort to turn Iraq around is a -- and these are his words, "a remarkable success story."

All right, earlier we asked you for e-mails on that thought. Here's what some of you had to say about Cheney's assessment. Robert weighs in on this one: "This war was ill-conceived from the start, unnecessary for us to go alone, and becomes more of a disaster every day that passes. We now learn that 20,000 more troops will be needed, another $70 billion, making the cost to U.S. taxpayers close to $225 billion. Can you imagine the good that amount of money could have done here at home?"

All right. Kind of a counterpoint to this: "I think in many ways, yes, it is a success," this next person says. "Remember in World War II, over 2000 Americans were killed on Omaha Beach in one day and over 20,000 killed in the campaign in North Africa. The price of freedom is often high and we are in another world war to fight terrorism and dictators who support terrorists. We have freed millions and stopped Saddam Hussein from brutalizing his people and his neighbors." That comes from Bruce.

Here's another one: "My question for the vice president is what exactly did we succeed in doing in Iraq? Defeating the decrepit Iraqi military? Capturing Saddam Hussein? If those are examples of our success, then I have to wonder if Mr. Cheney believes it was worth the lives of 1100 of our soldiers, the disrespect of our allies and $200 billion of our money." He goes on to ask about where's the WMD.

O'BRIEN: One more thought to balance it out: "I have been a long-time supporter of the Bush-Cheney administration, confounded at the vice president's view" -- actually that doesn't balance it out. There is more of the same. We're just going to leave it at that. But suffice it to say, there were a lot of comments along those lines.

At this hour, Israel's parliament has just approved a controversial and a historic plan to withdraw from Gaza, but will the vote and months of bitter political debate? CNN's Guy Raz live in Jerusalem with the latest on this -- Guy.

GUY RAZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Miles, a historic vote has now taken place in the Israeli parliament, 67 members of the Israeli Knesset or parliament have voted to approve a measure to begin evacuating all 21 Jewish settlements from Gaza by the end of next year.

Now for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a major victory. This is a man who has been regarded as the father of the settlements movement, someone who has encouraged Israelis to settle on land the country occupied since 1967.

It wasn't clear whether it was going to pass, and to give you a sense of just how divisive this vote was, at least half of Mr. Sharon's own hard-line, right-wing Likud Party members voted against the plan, and in order to win approval he had to depend on support from opposition parties, particularly the center-left Labor Party led by former Prime Minister Shimon Peres.

Now that the vote is complete, Israel is expected to begin the process of evacuating all of those settlements by next summer, settlements that is in the Gaza strip, in an area that Israel has occupied since 1967 -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Guy Raz, thank you very much, appreciate it. Coming up on our program: A "Saturday Night Live" slip up can't keep Ashlee Simpson off the stage. Details about how the pop star is trying to salvage her reputation.

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O'BRIEN: Teen singer Ashlee Simpson giving her side of the story after her lip-synching fiasco on "Saturday Night Live". Actually she has given several sides of that story already. Another teenage actress is reportedly recovering in a Los Angeles hospital. Just a few of the items on the entertainment docket today. CNN entertainment correspondent Sibila Vargas is standing by live with details.

Hello, Sibila.

SIBILA VARGAS, CNN ENTERTAINMENT CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Hi, Miles. Well, Linkin Park and Usher were definitely the big winners at last night's Radio Music Awards, but the night belonged to Ashlee Simpson, where everybody was asking the question, is it live or is it Memorex? Well, the singer finally got a chance to redeem herself.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ASHLEE SIMPSON, SINGER: It's the wrong song. It's the wrong song, guys. Just kidding, you guys!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VARGAS: No, it wasn't a case of deja vu, the actress was just having a little fun, making light of her SNL snafu, when it appeared that she was caught in the act of preparing to lip-synch. Ashlee went onto sing "Autobiography" last night, the song that she was supposed to sing on "Saturday Night Live," and this time it went off without a hitch -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right. Do we know she really sang it, though?

VARGAS: I think she did. It was clear.

O'BRIEN: All right. Now she blamed it on a computer glitch. At least that was one of the explanations I heard. What is SNL saying about that?

VARGAS: Well, Miles, we caught up with the executive producer, Lorne Michaels, in Washington, D.C., last night, where he was being honored with the Kennedy Center's Mark Twain Award. Now he admitted that the show allows some lip-synching, especially when it comes to singers with heavy dance routines, but insists it's still live, only that the performers sing with a backup track.

Now, in other news, actress Lindsay Lohan is not feeling very well these days. The 18-year-old has been forced to halt production on her new film, "Herbie: Fully Loaded," and a cameo on "That 70s Show" because of a high fever. The "Mean Girls" star was admitted to a Los Angeles hospital last Thursday after being ill for several days and running a temperature as high as 103 degrees. We, of course, wish her a very speedy recovery -- Miles?

O'BRIEN: Yes, we do. Sibila Vargas, thank you very much.

You may not be thinking about Christmas just yet -- maybe you are. But retailers certainly are. And there may be growing concern about how they're going to stock their shelves for holiday shoppers. We'll have details for you in just a moment.

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O'BRIEN: Well, billions of dollars of imports are caught up in a transit mess, and it may put a crimp on your holiday shopping list. Mary Snow will unravel all this for us from the New York Stock Exchange. Hello, Mary.

SNOW: Hi there, Miles.

Yeah, a bit of a traffic jam it seems. This is the time of year when holiday items start arriving from overseas. This year, though, cargo ships, trains, trucks, all backed up mainly because imports from Asia increased this year.

An importing trade group told CNN that ports in Los Angeles and Vancouver were clogged just drowning in riches, so to speak. The backup is so bad as many as 70 cargo ships are waiting to unload in L.A. alone. Now retailers -- some of them, anyway -- are worried about their shipments making it to stores. L.L. Bean says some of its shipments are arriving about five days late. "The New York Times" reports that Crate & Barrel opted to fly in some of its goods.

And Miles, it sounds like a good excuse, if you don't get that gift on time, now you know who to blame.

O'BRIEN: I'm writing it down right now. Yes, your gift is in a container somewhere out to sea, honey. I'm sure that will go over really well.

All right. Let's talk about insurance stocks today. They have been leading a charge.

SNOW: Yeah, and they have certainly been really beaten down in the past week or so. Today, they are rebounding. AIG is helping boost blue chips. That stock alone is up nearly $4, about seven percent. Marsh & McLennan, the company at the center of the insurance company investigation, was told it will no longer face criminal charges for alleged bid-rigging. This, after its CEO and chairman resigned. That's caused a bit of relief among insurance stocks, and it's helped lift stocks overall.

Let's take a look at the major averages. The Dow Jones Industrial Average right now posting a triple-digit lead, up 113 points. It's been able to hold onto its gains as we approach the final hour of this trading session. The Nasdaq lagging behind, right now just a few points higher. And that is the latest from Wall Street. Miles, back to you.

O'BRIEN: Thank you very much, Mary Snow. We'll see you tomorrow, right? Back tomorrow? OK.

That wraps up this edition of LIVE FROM. And now to take us through the next 90 minutes of political headlines, Judy Woodruff -- driving the bus there with "INSIDE POLITICS," with the Election Express in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. It's about time for a trade-in on that bus, I think, Judy. But nevertheless, only a week to go.

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": We try not to look under the hood too closely, Miles. Thanks very much.

Only a week to go -- for the second day in the row, though, I am in Pennsylvania today, the state capital Harrisburg.

Today, I'm going to talk with the governor, Ed Rendell, and with U.S. Commerce Secretary Don Evans about what the candidates are doing to try to win this state's 21 electoral votes.

Plus, two recent polls show an increasingly close race in traditionally Democratic Hawaii. Our Bruce Morton looks at whether the Aloha State is becoming of battleground. "INSIDE POLITICS" begins in just a moment.

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