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Six Days to Go; Purple Haze; Charges and Countercharges Over 380 Tons of Explosives

Aired October 27, 2004 - 14:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The finish line's closer. The polls close as ever. And that means the presidential candidates are scrambling to close deals with swing voters and longtime supporters alike.
George W. Bush is on the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Michigan circuit today. Two of those being Gore states in 2000, but very much up for grab now.

CNN's Elaine Quijano keeping tabs on all of this from the White House -- Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon to you, Miles.

That is right, President Bush, in addition to rally his base, is also reaching to Democrats and Independents. And today, he is hoping to get a boost from Democratic Senator Zell Miller of Georgia.

Now, you'll rember, of course, Senator Miller brought the crowd to its feet at the Republican convention. The president hoping to get a big boost from the senator today. But it was earlier today at a stop in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where the president for the first time came out swinging against Senator John Kerry about the 380 tons of missing explosives in Iraq.

The Kerry camp has seized on that issue, saying it illustrates how the Bush campaign rushed to war. But the president says the investigation into how those explosives went missing is still taking place. Now, he says Kerry was jumping to conclusions without having all the facts and, therefore, wasn't the person who should be commander in chief.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Now the senator is making wild charges about missing explosives when his top foreign policy adviser admits, "We do not know the facts." Think about that. The senator is denigrating the action of our troops and commanders in the field without knowing the facts. Unfortunately, that's part of a pattern of saying almost anything to get elected.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUIJANO: Now, the president also said today that more than 400,000 tons of explosive -- of munitions, rather, including explosives, have been either seized or destroyed in Iraq. The president's -- the president's campaign, though, rather, not obviously wanting to have to focus on this issue today, as the president continues to try to reach out to Democrats and Independents. But the president clearly taking a more defensive stance today after ignoring questions about the missing explosives yesterday.

The president meantime moving onto Ohio for rallies there this afternoon. And then Michigan later tonight -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Elaine Quijano at the White House. Thank you very much.

Meanwhile, the number two person on the Republican ticket, Vice President Dick Cheney, in Pennsylvania, Washington, Pennsylvania, had some harsh words today for Senator Kerry.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: John Kerry will say and do anything to get elected. Most recently he's been charging that American forces did not do enough to protect a weapons facility in Iraq where the result of some 380 tons of explosives disappeared. But John Kerry doesn't know if those explosives were even at the weapons facility when our the troops arrived.

The charge he is making is so wild that his own advisers are saying they don't know if it's true. But John Kerry's not a man to let a shortage of facts bother him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: The vice president in Washington, Pennsylvania -- Fred.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Well, John Kerry is expected momentarily at a rally in Rochester, Minnesota. The Gopher State not only in the Gore column last time, but consistently Democratic in presidential races since 1972. The Rochester rally is sandwiched between events in Iowa, after which Kerry jets over to Ohio for another long day tomorrow.

Along the ride, as always, CNN national correspondent Frank Buckley -- Frank.

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Fredricka.

Minnesota, a state that has traditionally got a Democratic base, but a couple of things have happened since Al Gore won here by just a couple of points in 2000. There's been a Republican governor elected here, and also the seat of the late Paul Wellstone, the progressive Democrat here from Minnesota, filled by a Republican.

So the Kerry campaign doing its best to try to keep Minnesota in their column for this race, and that's what rallies like this one here are all about. Garrison Keeler here, Carol King. You get a couple of celebrities and rally the supporters to make sure they get out to the polls. So while the Kerry campaign is trying to move the voters to the polls, Senator Kerry continues to try to make the case, as he did this morning in Sioux City, Iowa, that President Bush has not been a strong commander in chief. That, in fact, he's made America less safe, that he has mismanaged the war on terror and mismanaged the war in Iraq.

Today, for the third straight day, he went after President Bush on those missing explosives in Iraq. Here's what Senator Kerry had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What we're seeing is a White House that is dodging and bobbing and weaving in their usual efforts to avoid responsibility, just as they've done every step of the way in our involvement in Iraq. Instead of coming clean with the American people, the administration has blamed the bad news on the International Atomic Energy Agency, and even blamed the United States military, and even blamed the media itself. All the while, the White House took no responsibility for creating the situation where these weapons could go missing in the first place.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: And you heard just a second ago in Elaine Quijano's report the president suggesting that Senator Kerry's criticisms are somehow denigrating soldiers. Senator Kerry saying repeatedly on the stump that the soldiers have done a fantastic job and it's the commander in chief that's failed.

But the Kerry campaign very quick to respond to that specific allegation about denigrating the efforts of the soldiers. Joe Lockhart saying that that was beneath contempt.

We expect to hear more about Iraq here today. Expect to hear more about Iraq between now and Election Day. And after this rally here in Minnesota, Fredricka, we're heading back to Iowa -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Thanks so much. Frank Buckley.

Well, six days out, the candidates' travels, their spending patterns, and don't forget the polls, suggest we're not so much a nation of red states and blue states but, guess what, purple states. And it's enough to make our political analyst Bill Schneider red in the face.

So Bill, how do we explain this? What's the purple all about?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, what's happening is really strange, and nobody expected it. Usually in the campaign we see some late momentum. Everyone is looking for the late surge.

We see a movement to Bush or a movement to Kerry. And people have been looking at it and reading the entrails of all the polls. And you know what we're finding? We're finding -- instead of momentum, we're finding no mo, no momentum.

What's happening is the race looks like it's getting closer. All over the country, the national polls show a closer and closer race since the debates. And state polls are showing the same thing.

There were a number of states that looked like they were trending towards Bush, like West Virginia and Arkansas and Missouri. And now those states look up in the air. The latest polls are very close.

There were states that were trending to Kerry. New Jersey, it looked like Kerry would have that in the bag. Gore carried it by 16 points. The latest poll a dead heat.

What else? Michigan -- Michigan was supposed to be Kerry's state. The latest poll shows a very narrow Kerry margin.

And how's this for a strange phenomenon? Hawaii. Hawaii has only voted Republican twice in two landslides, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84. But the latest two polls in Hawaii show the state too close to call.

What's going on? It's very strange.

WHITFIELD: So none of the states a given anymore. In face, we even heard from former President Bill Clinton who said to the Democrats, don't give up, Arkansas. It's not a given it's going to go to the Republicans.

SCHNEIDER: That's right.

WHITFIELD: That's just an example, then, of the psychology, if there is any such thing, as a psychology of these purple states. Now purple states.

SCHNEIDER: That's right, the map is turning more purple. Instead of moving to red or blue, it's getting more purple.

And the battleground states, instead of the list getting smaller and smaller, it looks like it's getting bigger and bigger. This is amazing, and it does portend alas for all of us in the press a very long election night, maybe lasting more than one night.

WHITFIELD: Yes. I don't think any of us will be surprised.

Well, let's talk about polls since you brought it up. In the poll of polls, it's showing right now -- and this is kind of a conglomeration of six national polls -- Bush with 49 percent, Kerry with 47 percent. And seems like something is impacting these numbers, because the numbers are changing on a day-to-day basis as these polls are taking place as we encroach upon Election Day. How do you explain that?

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Well, what's happening is just what I said. There's no momentum for anybody. And the polls generally are getting very, very close. Some of the latest polls, like the "Los Angeles Times" poll, are showing really a dead heat. And those polls, while Bush tends to have more of an edge than Kerry, more often an edge than Kerry, the fact is they are really moving towards a dead heat. No advantage for either candidate.

And we've seen that poll of poll average, that moving average of the various national polls getting closer and closer. And at this point I'd say the national polls are showing no trend, no momentum. Pay less attention to the national polls, and look at the state polls which, as I just said, are showing the same thing happening in all the battleground states.

WHITFIELD: And then, as we talk about whether we're going to hear the results the evening of Tuesday or not, you know, another monkey wrench being thrown into all of this is the provisional balloting take place. Some are really suspicious about, you know, whether this is going to further disenfranchise certain voters.

SCHNEIDER: That's right, because the rules on provisional balloting do vary from state to state. Some states require that a provisional ballot, which is a ballot cast by a voter whose qualifications may not be clear. So if you go to vote and they say, "Well, we're not sure you're eligible to vote," you cast a provisional ballot and they look up your eligibility later and decide whether your vote should be counted.

In some states, that ballot has to be cast in the correct precinct where you live. In other states, you can cast it anywhere in town or in a county and it will still be counted. So the rules do vary. And, of course, there are armies, brigades of lawyers on both sides armed with lawsuits to throw at each other the minute the election ends, so that if any state is in dispute, Ohio or Florida, or anywhere else, they'd be ready with suits to say the rules on provisional voting were somehow discriminatory.

WHITFIELD: All right. Bill Schneider, thanks so much, as always.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

O'BRIEN: More charges and countercharges over 380 tons of explosives the International atomic Energy Agency says are missing from an arms depot near Baghdad. Now, President Bush says the military is looking into a number of possible scenarios, including -- involving those missing explosives.

Our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre, joining us now with the latest on all this -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, you heard the president and the vice president just a short time ago accuse the Kerry campaign of not having all the facts surrounding this incident. Well, you can count among those who don't have all the facts the Pentagon. But it's working very hard to assemble a better picture of what might have happened to that 380 tons of explosives. One of the things they're telling us now is they now have been able to determine that the exploitation team, the special weapons inspection team that went to the site, actually got there much earlier than May than they originally thought. The team arrived on May 8th, not the 27th. Came back May 11th, and then wrapped up things by May 27th.

Now, what that does is it closes the window of time when the U.S. believes those weapons could have gone missing. It makes it about a month or so, instead of over six weeks.

But what the Pentagon is also looking for is any evidence to back up its theory that it believes that in all likelihood these weapons -- explosives, rather -- were moved out before U.S. troops ever got there. And they're now searching through some of the intelligence, some of the surveillance imagery to see if they have anything that can back up that claim.

They've also been talking with the commanders who were with some of the first troops who got there. And we've learned today that the very first unit to get there was from the 3rd Infantry Division on April 3. They stopped there on their way to Baghdad. But again, the troops that were reaching it in April were on a mission to take Baghdad. And they didn't spend much time searching this weapons facility for any high explosives or even WMD at that point.

So the Pentagon, again, is trying to assemble a more complete picture to try to buttress its case that it doesn't believe that it allowed these explosives to be looted. So far, they can't rule that out, though -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Well, Jamie, when you mention looting, we should remind people, when you're talking about 400 tons of explosives, the logistics of moving that much material is pretty staggering, isn't it?

MCINTYRE: Well, a standard 10-ton truck would take 38 trucks. But, of course, all of it doesn't have to be looted for it to be a problem.

Some of it, for instance, could have been destroyed by bombing during the war. Some of it could have been dispersed in the site and still have been there and been destroyed. Others -- some of it could have been taken away.

It doesn't have to be the case that all 380 tons were looted for there to be a problem. This high explosive is -- is very powerful, it can be used by itself and also to accelerate the effective other explosives. So it's a very dangerous substance, and the point is they don't really know at this point what happened to it.

O'BRIEN: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon. Thank you very much -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: Well, it forever changed America, but did September 11th change us enough? A lack of progress report on the 9/11 panel's recommendations later on LIVE FROM. And if you have to ask how much, you probably can't afford it. We'll tour some pretty pricey properties straight ahead.

And we'll introduce to you a voter who has seen it all. Who will this 100-year-old be supporting this time around?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Developments in Iraq today. The latest hostage- taking incident appears no closer to resolution. Japan's prime minister says no to a pullout of his troops from Iraq, despite the demands of kidnappers holding a Japanese mean.

Keeping with a familiar pattern, the captors released a video of the hostage pleading for his life. It's the same day British troops in Basra started moving northward.

Jane Arraf is in Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: British troops are on their way to what is likely to be the most hostile environment they face since the end of major combat. These are 850 troops. Most of them some of the most battle-hardened troops in the British system.

Black Watch armored regiment troops who are coming to an area south of Baghdad near Babylon to hold the fort for U.S. Marines, who are preparing what they threaten will be a major offensive in Falluja, west of Baghdad. The British government says of this controversial move that it's temporary, that these troops will be home by Christmas. But it's not clear whether they'll be replaced by other troops in an area that is one of the most volatile in Iraq.

Another hostage drama unfolding. A group that has kidnapped a 24-year-old Japanese would-be tourist says it will behead him if the Japanese government doesn't withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Now, those troops were sent here in a very controversial decision in Japan. There are about 500 non-combat troops engaged in humanitarian work. The Japanese government says it won't give into the kidnappers' demands, that those troops will stay. And it says that it believes that 24-year-old Soshe Koda (ph) was just traveling through the region and decided to take a trip to Iraq. He appeared in a video pleading for his life.

Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, the Iraqi prime minister, is trading accusations over why an ambush occurred that resulted in the massacre of almost 50 new Iraqi army soldiers and their drivers. He told parliament it was gross negligence on the part of the coalition.

The coalition, which isn't revealing results of an investigation just begun, it says, by Iraqi authorities, says that the blame lies squarely with insurgents. But no one is saying how this could have happened.

Jane arraf, CNN, reporting from Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN: News around the world now. And an odds-beating story of survival that transfixed a nation.

Rescuers probing earthquake wreckage in northern Japan found a mother and her two children alive in a car, four days beneath the buried landslide. The 2-year-old boy is recovering. Not all happy news, however. The mother died in a hospital later, and at last report her other young child remains trapped.

Another legal hit for Slobodan Milosevic. The former Yugoslav president's court-appointed lawyer wants to be dismissed from his war crimes case. According to the application for dismissal, Milosevic refuses to cooperate.

Milosevic had initially defended himself at The Hague. He's on trial for genocide and crimes against humanity.

And fighting along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan heated up overnight. Pakistani troops manning a checkpoint opened fire on a vehicle containing suspected militants. Three were killed, several others wounded. The latest incident in Pakistan's crackdown on militant activity in that part of the world.

WHITFIELD: Well, getting set for a celestial event. We'll get the scoop on the eclipse you won't have to stay up too late to watch, unless of course you're staying in to watch the World Series as well.

LARRY SMITH, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: I'm Larry Smith at the World Series in St. Louis. The Cardinals are almost out of answers, questions. We'll see what they throw at the Boston Red Sox next. A preview coming up of game four.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Rhonda Schaffler at the New York Stock Exchange. If you think your rent is through the roof, stay tuned. I've got a list of places where the rents are more expensive than a shopping spree at Tiffany's.

CNN's LIVE FROM will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: As both presidential candidates crisscross the nation, let's go to John Kerry now, making a stop in Rochester, Minnesota.

KERRY: ... the president, the commander in chief is not doing his job.

(APPLAUSE)

KERRY: My friends, this is an urgent issue, because it really is a summary of a series of decisions that have put us where we are in Iraq today. I have a plan, and I know I bring fresh leadership and new credibility to the task of bringing allies to the table who should have been there in the beginning, and who have been pushed away time and time again.

And I tell you, this -- this is an urgent issue for America. But I'll tell you what else is urgent. We need a president of the United States who can do more than one thing at the same time.

(APPLAUSE)

KERRY: We need a president -- we need a president who's going to fight for the real problems of real people in America who are struggling day to day to be able to try to make ends meet playing by the rules. And you know what I'm talking about.

Over the last four years, the income, the take-home pay of the average American family has gone down by $1,500 to $2,500. But while the pay has gone down, health care costs have gone up 64 percent, tuitions have gone up about 40 percent, 45-plus percent.

Gasoline prices $2 at the pump and growing, record prices for a barrel of oil. $10 to $15 of it, according to "BusinessWeek," is directly attributable to George Bush's instability factor in the world.

My friends, Medicare -- Medicare premiums have gone up 56 percent the last four years, 17 percent in the last year alone. And prescription drugs, out of sight. I've met more people across America who are choosing between whether or not they pay the rent or buy the prescription drugs. I've met seniors who are cutting pills in half in order to be able to ration their own medicine.

Not in our United States of America we shouldn't have to do that. And let me tell you...

(APPLAUSE)

KERRY: Now, I know that President Bush doesn't like to deal with facts and he doesn't like to -- you know, he's never let the truth get in his way. But here's the truth, Mr. President.

While you've been president, the take-home pay of the average American family has gone down every single year, and it now the lowest level as a share of all of our national income. It's the lowest level since it was in 1929. And the share of the wealthiest Americans, the top .1 percent, is the highest that it's been since 1928.

So under George Bush, the share of the -- and I want Minnesota to listen to this, I want America to listen to this, because this is the true story of this administration. Over the course of the last four years, the share of the tax burden of the middle class has gone up, their income has gone down, the share of the tax burden of the wealthy has gone down, their income has gone up. George Bush has it backwards, and I'm going to reverse it when you make me president of the United States.

WHITFIELD: Democrat John Kerry in Rochester, Minnesota. Meantime, looking at a live picture right now on the right side of your screen. The president in Vienna, Ohio, making a return visit to the battleground state of Ohio, very conscientious of the fact that in recent years, no Republican president has won an election without winning Ohio. So he's campaigning hard in that battleground state. Meantime, both candidates are making the points that Iraq is an urgent issue.

Meantime, in Iraq, an urgent plea coming from British hostage Margaret Hassan. A second now videotaped plea that we know of being shown on Al Jazeera. You're looking at a still image right there of Margaret Hassan.

She has been a resident of Iraq for 30 years now. She's married to an Iraqi. She also shares citizenship in Great Britain, Ireland, as well as in Iraq. Making that very urgent plea for the British troops to withdraw.

However, in recent weeks, the British government has said that it has no plans of doing just that. But no response right now coming from the second now videotaped plea from Margaret Hassan from her government in Great Britain -- Miles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Aired October 27, 2004 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The finish line's closer. The polls close as ever. And that means the presidential candidates are scrambling to close deals with swing voters and longtime supporters alike.
George W. Bush is on the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Michigan circuit today. Two of those being Gore states in 2000, but very much up for grab now.

CNN's Elaine Quijano keeping tabs on all of this from the White House -- Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon to you, Miles.

That is right, President Bush, in addition to rally his base, is also reaching to Democrats and Independents. And today, he is hoping to get a boost from Democratic Senator Zell Miller of Georgia.

Now, you'll rember, of course, Senator Miller brought the crowd to its feet at the Republican convention. The president hoping to get a big boost from the senator today. But it was earlier today at a stop in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where the president for the first time came out swinging against Senator John Kerry about the 380 tons of missing explosives in Iraq.

The Kerry camp has seized on that issue, saying it illustrates how the Bush campaign rushed to war. But the president says the investigation into how those explosives went missing is still taking place. Now, he says Kerry was jumping to conclusions without having all the facts and, therefore, wasn't the person who should be commander in chief.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Now the senator is making wild charges about missing explosives when his top foreign policy adviser admits, "We do not know the facts." Think about that. The senator is denigrating the action of our troops and commanders in the field without knowing the facts. Unfortunately, that's part of a pattern of saying almost anything to get elected.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUIJANO: Now, the president also said today that more than 400,000 tons of explosive -- of munitions, rather, including explosives, have been either seized or destroyed in Iraq. The president's -- the president's campaign, though, rather, not obviously wanting to have to focus on this issue today, as the president continues to try to reach out to Democrats and Independents. But the president clearly taking a more defensive stance today after ignoring questions about the missing explosives yesterday.

The president meantime moving onto Ohio for rallies there this afternoon. And then Michigan later tonight -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Elaine Quijano at the White House. Thank you very much.

Meanwhile, the number two person on the Republican ticket, Vice President Dick Cheney, in Pennsylvania, Washington, Pennsylvania, had some harsh words today for Senator Kerry.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: John Kerry will say and do anything to get elected. Most recently he's been charging that American forces did not do enough to protect a weapons facility in Iraq where the result of some 380 tons of explosives disappeared. But John Kerry doesn't know if those explosives were even at the weapons facility when our the troops arrived.

The charge he is making is so wild that his own advisers are saying they don't know if it's true. But John Kerry's not a man to let a shortage of facts bother him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: The vice president in Washington, Pennsylvania -- Fred.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Well, John Kerry is expected momentarily at a rally in Rochester, Minnesota. The Gopher State not only in the Gore column last time, but consistently Democratic in presidential races since 1972. The Rochester rally is sandwiched between events in Iowa, after which Kerry jets over to Ohio for another long day tomorrow.

Along the ride, as always, CNN national correspondent Frank Buckley -- Frank.

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Fredricka.

Minnesota, a state that has traditionally got a Democratic base, but a couple of things have happened since Al Gore won here by just a couple of points in 2000. There's been a Republican governor elected here, and also the seat of the late Paul Wellstone, the progressive Democrat here from Minnesota, filled by a Republican.

So the Kerry campaign doing its best to try to keep Minnesota in their column for this race, and that's what rallies like this one here are all about. Garrison Keeler here, Carol King. You get a couple of celebrities and rally the supporters to make sure they get out to the polls. So while the Kerry campaign is trying to move the voters to the polls, Senator Kerry continues to try to make the case, as he did this morning in Sioux City, Iowa, that President Bush has not been a strong commander in chief. That, in fact, he's made America less safe, that he has mismanaged the war on terror and mismanaged the war in Iraq.

Today, for the third straight day, he went after President Bush on those missing explosives in Iraq. Here's what Senator Kerry had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What we're seeing is a White House that is dodging and bobbing and weaving in their usual efforts to avoid responsibility, just as they've done every step of the way in our involvement in Iraq. Instead of coming clean with the American people, the administration has blamed the bad news on the International Atomic Energy Agency, and even blamed the United States military, and even blamed the media itself. All the while, the White House took no responsibility for creating the situation where these weapons could go missing in the first place.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: And you heard just a second ago in Elaine Quijano's report the president suggesting that Senator Kerry's criticisms are somehow denigrating soldiers. Senator Kerry saying repeatedly on the stump that the soldiers have done a fantastic job and it's the commander in chief that's failed.

But the Kerry campaign very quick to respond to that specific allegation about denigrating the efforts of the soldiers. Joe Lockhart saying that that was beneath contempt.

We expect to hear more about Iraq here today. Expect to hear more about Iraq between now and Election Day. And after this rally here in Minnesota, Fredricka, we're heading back to Iowa -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Thanks so much. Frank Buckley.

Well, six days out, the candidates' travels, their spending patterns, and don't forget the polls, suggest we're not so much a nation of red states and blue states but, guess what, purple states. And it's enough to make our political analyst Bill Schneider red in the face.

So Bill, how do we explain this? What's the purple all about?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, what's happening is really strange, and nobody expected it. Usually in the campaign we see some late momentum. Everyone is looking for the late surge.

We see a movement to Bush or a movement to Kerry. And people have been looking at it and reading the entrails of all the polls. And you know what we're finding? We're finding -- instead of momentum, we're finding no mo, no momentum.

What's happening is the race looks like it's getting closer. All over the country, the national polls show a closer and closer race since the debates. And state polls are showing the same thing.

There were a number of states that looked like they were trending towards Bush, like West Virginia and Arkansas and Missouri. And now those states look up in the air. The latest polls are very close.

There were states that were trending to Kerry. New Jersey, it looked like Kerry would have that in the bag. Gore carried it by 16 points. The latest poll a dead heat.

What else? Michigan -- Michigan was supposed to be Kerry's state. The latest poll shows a very narrow Kerry margin.

And how's this for a strange phenomenon? Hawaii. Hawaii has only voted Republican twice in two landslides, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84. But the latest two polls in Hawaii show the state too close to call.

What's going on? It's very strange.

WHITFIELD: So none of the states a given anymore. In face, we even heard from former President Bill Clinton who said to the Democrats, don't give up, Arkansas. It's not a given it's going to go to the Republicans.

SCHNEIDER: That's right.

WHITFIELD: That's just an example, then, of the psychology, if there is any such thing, as a psychology of these purple states. Now purple states.

SCHNEIDER: That's right, the map is turning more purple. Instead of moving to red or blue, it's getting more purple.

And the battleground states, instead of the list getting smaller and smaller, it looks like it's getting bigger and bigger. This is amazing, and it does portend alas for all of us in the press a very long election night, maybe lasting more than one night.

WHITFIELD: Yes. I don't think any of us will be surprised.

Well, let's talk about polls since you brought it up. In the poll of polls, it's showing right now -- and this is kind of a conglomeration of six national polls -- Bush with 49 percent, Kerry with 47 percent. And seems like something is impacting these numbers, because the numbers are changing on a day-to-day basis as these polls are taking place as we encroach upon Election Day. How do you explain that?

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Well, what's happening is just what I said. There's no momentum for anybody. And the polls generally are getting very, very close. Some of the latest polls, like the "Los Angeles Times" poll, are showing really a dead heat. And those polls, while Bush tends to have more of an edge than Kerry, more often an edge than Kerry, the fact is they are really moving towards a dead heat. No advantage for either candidate.

And we've seen that poll of poll average, that moving average of the various national polls getting closer and closer. And at this point I'd say the national polls are showing no trend, no momentum. Pay less attention to the national polls, and look at the state polls which, as I just said, are showing the same thing happening in all the battleground states.

WHITFIELD: And then, as we talk about whether we're going to hear the results the evening of Tuesday or not, you know, another monkey wrench being thrown into all of this is the provisional balloting take place. Some are really suspicious about, you know, whether this is going to further disenfranchise certain voters.

SCHNEIDER: That's right, because the rules on provisional balloting do vary from state to state. Some states require that a provisional ballot, which is a ballot cast by a voter whose qualifications may not be clear. So if you go to vote and they say, "Well, we're not sure you're eligible to vote," you cast a provisional ballot and they look up your eligibility later and decide whether your vote should be counted.

In some states, that ballot has to be cast in the correct precinct where you live. In other states, you can cast it anywhere in town or in a county and it will still be counted. So the rules do vary. And, of course, there are armies, brigades of lawyers on both sides armed with lawsuits to throw at each other the minute the election ends, so that if any state is in dispute, Ohio or Florida, or anywhere else, they'd be ready with suits to say the rules on provisional voting were somehow discriminatory.

WHITFIELD: All right. Bill Schneider, thanks so much, as always.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

O'BRIEN: More charges and countercharges over 380 tons of explosives the International atomic Energy Agency says are missing from an arms depot near Baghdad. Now, President Bush says the military is looking into a number of possible scenarios, including -- involving those missing explosives.

Our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre, joining us now with the latest on all this -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, you heard the president and the vice president just a short time ago accuse the Kerry campaign of not having all the facts surrounding this incident. Well, you can count among those who don't have all the facts the Pentagon. But it's working very hard to assemble a better picture of what might have happened to that 380 tons of explosives. One of the things they're telling us now is they now have been able to determine that the exploitation team, the special weapons inspection team that went to the site, actually got there much earlier than May than they originally thought. The team arrived on May 8th, not the 27th. Came back May 11th, and then wrapped up things by May 27th.

Now, what that does is it closes the window of time when the U.S. believes those weapons could have gone missing. It makes it about a month or so, instead of over six weeks.

But what the Pentagon is also looking for is any evidence to back up its theory that it believes that in all likelihood these weapons -- explosives, rather -- were moved out before U.S. troops ever got there. And they're now searching through some of the intelligence, some of the surveillance imagery to see if they have anything that can back up that claim.

They've also been talking with the commanders who were with some of the first troops who got there. And we've learned today that the very first unit to get there was from the 3rd Infantry Division on April 3. They stopped there on their way to Baghdad. But again, the troops that were reaching it in April were on a mission to take Baghdad. And they didn't spend much time searching this weapons facility for any high explosives or even WMD at that point.

So the Pentagon, again, is trying to assemble a more complete picture to try to buttress its case that it doesn't believe that it allowed these explosives to be looted. So far, they can't rule that out, though -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Well, Jamie, when you mention looting, we should remind people, when you're talking about 400 tons of explosives, the logistics of moving that much material is pretty staggering, isn't it?

MCINTYRE: Well, a standard 10-ton truck would take 38 trucks. But, of course, all of it doesn't have to be looted for it to be a problem.

Some of it, for instance, could have been destroyed by bombing during the war. Some of it could have been dispersed in the site and still have been there and been destroyed. Others -- some of it could have been taken away.

It doesn't have to be the case that all 380 tons were looted for there to be a problem. This high explosive is -- is very powerful, it can be used by itself and also to accelerate the effective other explosives. So it's a very dangerous substance, and the point is they don't really know at this point what happened to it.

O'BRIEN: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon. Thank you very much -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: Well, it forever changed America, but did September 11th change us enough? A lack of progress report on the 9/11 panel's recommendations later on LIVE FROM. And if you have to ask how much, you probably can't afford it. We'll tour some pretty pricey properties straight ahead.

And we'll introduce to you a voter who has seen it all. Who will this 100-year-old be supporting this time around?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Developments in Iraq today. The latest hostage- taking incident appears no closer to resolution. Japan's prime minister says no to a pullout of his troops from Iraq, despite the demands of kidnappers holding a Japanese mean.

Keeping with a familiar pattern, the captors released a video of the hostage pleading for his life. It's the same day British troops in Basra started moving northward.

Jane Arraf is in Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: British troops are on their way to what is likely to be the most hostile environment they face since the end of major combat. These are 850 troops. Most of them some of the most battle-hardened troops in the British system.

Black Watch armored regiment troops who are coming to an area south of Baghdad near Babylon to hold the fort for U.S. Marines, who are preparing what they threaten will be a major offensive in Falluja, west of Baghdad. The British government says of this controversial move that it's temporary, that these troops will be home by Christmas. But it's not clear whether they'll be replaced by other troops in an area that is one of the most volatile in Iraq.

Another hostage drama unfolding. A group that has kidnapped a 24-year-old Japanese would-be tourist says it will behead him if the Japanese government doesn't withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Now, those troops were sent here in a very controversial decision in Japan. There are about 500 non-combat troops engaged in humanitarian work. The Japanese government says it won't give into the kidnappers' demands, that those troops will stay. And it says that it believes that 24-year-old Soshe Koda (ph) was just traveling through the region and decided to take a trip to Iraq. He appeared in a video pleading for his life.

Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, the Iraqi prime minister, is trading accusations over why an ambush occurred that resulted in the massacre of almost 50 new Iraqi army soldiers and their drivers. He told parliament it was gross negligence on the part of the coalition.

The coalition, which isn't revealing results of an investigation just begun, it says, by Iraqi authorities, says that the blame lies squarely with insurgents. But no one is saying how this could have happened.

Jane arraf, CNN, reporting from Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN: News around the world now. And an odds-beating story of survival that transfixed a nation.

Rescuers probing earthquake wreckage in northern Japan found a mother and her two children alive in a car, four days beneath the buried landslide. The 2-year-old boy is recovering. Not all happy news, however. The mother died in a hospital later, and at last report her other young child remains trapped.

Another legal hit for Slobodan Milosevic. The former Yugoslav president's court-appointed lawyer wants to be dismissed from his war crimes case. According to the application for dismissal, Milosevic refuses to cooperate.

Milosevic had initially defended himself at The Hague. He's on trial for genocide and crimes against humanity.

And fighting along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan heated up overnight. Pakistani troops manning a checkpoint opened fire on a vehicle containing suspected militants. Three were killed, several others wounded. The latest incident in Pakistan's crackdown on militant activity in that part of the world.

WHITFIELD: Well, getting set for a celestial event. We'll get the scoop on the eclipse you won't have to stay up too late to watch, unless of course you're staying in to watch the World Series as well.

LARRY SMITH, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: I'm Larry Smith at the World Series in St. Louis. The Cardinals are almost out of answers, questions. We'll see what they throw at the Boston Red Sox next. A preview coming up of game four.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Rhonda Schaffler at the New York Stock Exchange. If you think your rent is through the roof, stay tuned. I've got a list of places where the rents are more expensive than a shopping spree at Tiffany's.

CNN's LIVE FROM will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: As both presidential candidates crisscross the nation, let's go to John Kerry now, making a stop in Rochester, Minnesota.

KERRY: ... the president, the commander in chief is not doing his job.

(APPLAUSE)

KERRY: My friends, this is an urgent issue, because it really is a summary of a series of decisions that have put us where we are in Iraq today. I have a plan, and I know I bring fresh leadership and new credibility to the task of bringing allies to the table who should have been there in the beginning, and who have been pushed away time and time again.

And I tell you, this -- this is an urgent issue for America. But I'll tell you what else is urgent. We need a president of the United States who can do more than one thing at the same time.

(APPLAUSE)

KERRY: We need a president -- we need a president who's going to fight for the real problems of real people in America who are struggling day to day to be able to try to make ends meet playing by the rules. And you know what I'm talking about.

Over the last four years, the income, the take-home pay of the average American family has gone down by $1,500 to $2,500. But while the pay has gone down, health care costs have gone up 64 percent, tuitions have gone up about 40 percent, 45-plus percent.

Gasoline prices $2 at the pump and growing, record prices for a barrel of oil. $10 to $15 of it, according to "BusinessWeek," is directly attributable to George Bush's instability factor in the world.

My friends, Medicare -- Medicare premiums have gone up 56 percent the last four years, 17 percent in the last year alone. And prescription drugs, out of sight. I've met more people across America who are choosing between whether or not they pay the rent or buy the prescription drugs. I've met seniors who are cutting pills in half in order to be able to ration their own medicine.

Not in our United States of America we shouldn't have to do that. And let me tell you...

(APPLAUSE)

KERRY: Now, I know that President Bush doesn't like to deal with facts and he doesn't like to -- you know, he's never let the truth get in his way. But here's the truth, Mr. President.

While you've been president, the take-home pay of the average American family has gone down every single year, and it now the lowest level as a share of all of our national income. It's the lowest level since it was in 1929. And the share of the wealthiest Americans, the top .1 percent, is the highest that it's been since 1928.

So under George Bush, the share of the -- and I want Minnesota to listen to this, I want America to listen to this, because this is the true story of this administration. Over the course of the last four years, the share of the tax burden of the middle class has gone up, their income has gone down, the share of the tax burden of the wealthy has gone down, their income has gone up. George Bush has it backwards, and I'm going to reverse it when you make me president of the United States.

WHITFIELD: Democrat John Kerry in Rochester, Minnesota. Meantime, looking at a live picture right now on the right side of your screen. The president in Vienna, Ohio, making a return visit to the battleground state of Ohio, very conscientious of the fact that in recent years, no Republican president has won an election without winning Ohio. So he's campaigning hard in that battleground state. Meantime, both candidates are making the points that Iraq is an urgent issue.

Meantime, in Iraq, an urgent plea coming from British hostage Margaret Hassan. A second now videotaped plea that we know of being shown on Al Jazeera. You're looking at a still image right there of Margaret Hassan.

She has been a resident of Iraq for 30 years now. She's married to an Iraqi. She also shares citizenship in Great Britain, Ireland, as well as in Iraq. Making that very urgent plea for the British troops to withdraw.

However, in recent weeks, the British government has said that it has no plans of doing just that. But no response right now coming from the second now videotaped plea from Margaret Hassan from her government in Great Britain -- Miles.

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