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Keystone State Assumed to be One of Keys to Victory; What Was October Surprise of This Presidential Contest?

Aired November 01, 2004 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: In the news now, a huge turnout predicted for tomorrow's presidential election. And in 11 states, another key issue is likely to bring voters to the polls, the issue of same-sex marriage. Eleven states will vote on Defense of Marriage ballot initiatives, banning same-sex marriage and/or civil unions. Since 1996, 39 states have enacted Defensive of Marriage Acts.
Prosecutors laying out the case one last time in the Scott Peterson trial. They're presenting closing arguments today. Juror will have two choices should they decide to convict Peterson. One would spare him the death penalty.

Chief Justice William Rehnquist headed out today, but not back to the bench. Rehnquist underwent a tracheotomy last week, and is now having outpatient treatment for thyroid cancer. In a statement, the chief justice said that his doctors thought his return to the Supreme Court today was too optimistic. Rehnquist will continue to work from home.

Keystone State is assumed to be one of the keys to victory for one presidential candidate or the other, and that could mean high drama in Lehigh County. In 2000, Lehigh registered the closest margin in all of Pennsylvania.

CNN's Jason Carroll went to the busiest precinct in Lehigh County to watch the preparations for election 2004. That's a lot of Lehigh.

Hi, Jason.

JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A whole lot of Lehighs.

It was definitely busy during the last presidential election, expected to be just as busy this go around, Kyra. But this time it's going to be different in the state of Pennsylvania, simply because Pennsylvania voters are going to be facing a lot more problems that they didn't have to face last time. First one being record number of registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania. A little bit more than 8.6 million registered voters in the state. The problem is the computer system that's supposed to process all those registered voters is painfully slow according to election workers, so they're definitely concerns about that. Also Republicans are accusing Democrats of padding the registration roles, a charge Democrats deny. Democrats, on the other hand, are accusing Republicans of voter intimidation tactics, especially in urban areas, a charge Republicans deny.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SEN. RICK SANTORUM (R), PENNSYLVANIA: Having people at the polls keeping track of registered voters and making sure that there is no fraud at the polls is not voter intimidation; it's only intimidation to those who are trying to commit fraud.

GOV. ED RENDELL (D), PENNSYLVANIA: All of this controversy is symptomatic of what has been a horribly divisive election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: There is one area where both Republicans and Democrats agree, and that is on the issue of the use of provisional ballots. Those the ballots that are used, let's say, if you registered to vote, you show up at the poll, but your name doesn't appear on some sort of an official record. You can -- you are then given a provisional ballot. Your ballot will be verified and counted three days after the election. But then you've got some election workers who say, we're not sure how well that process is going to work.

One thing is for sure, long lines out here at polling places, like this one in Lehigh County, and lots of attorneys on hand as well -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: I bet it's going to be a long day for you tomorrow, Jason. Thank you -- Tony.

CARROLL: Yes.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, now that October is over, what was the October surprise of this presidential contest? The missing explosive in Iraq, the latest video of Osama bin Laden, or was it something else entirely? Our next guest says we'll need distance before we can figure their out.

Dan Roberts joins us from the University of Richmond, Virginia, where he is an assistant history professor. Dan also hosts "A Moment in Time" on Public Radio.

Dan, good to see you.

DAN ROBERTS, ASST. PROF. OF HISTORY: Good to see you, Tony. Have you voted yet?

HARRIS: You know what, I should have taken advantage of the early voting, but you know what, the lines and the lines, they were long last week. That's a whole another story.

ROBERTS: You bet.

HARRIS: Let's talk about October surprises.

ROBERTS: Yes, sir.

HARRIS: Now, 1960, let's go back to 1960 and Nixon/Kennedy that race, and Martin Luther King's arrest, which, in fact, turned out to be an October surprise for Kennedy. Set it up for us. ROBERTS: Exactly. In 1960, of course, the election was going back and forth -- you had Nixon ahead and then Kennedy ahead, back and forth, and Kennedy needed a break, and it turned out to be urban black voters in northern cities, and the way he was able to reach them was support for the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who had been arrested on October 19th for a demonstration at the segregated -- at a Rich's department store in downtown Atlanta, yes, exactly. And he was just kind of cooling his heels in jail, and then he was sent to prison for a traffic violation, kept in prison for a traffic violation.

Kennedy called Mrs. King, Coretta Scott King, and, expressed his concern, and then dispatched brother Bobby to talk to Governor Vandervur (ph) of Georgia. Kennedy -- Dr. King was released on the 27th of October, and virtually endorsed Kennedy, which sent a signal to urban black voters, probably gave Kennedy the election.

HARRIS: What did Richard Nixon do?

ROBERTS: Richard Nixon did nothing, probably as a result of his long fascination with Southern conservative voters. It paid rich dividends for him in the three decades later for his party.

HARRIS: Well, explain that, take a moment and explain that.

ROBERTS: Nixon believed that Southern voters, Southern conservative white voters, were logical candidates for a Democratic -- for a Republican Party that was not going to be as supportive of the civil rights movement as it had been in the past. Many black voters were Republicans, and they voted for the Republicans because of the Lincoln legacy. But with the coming of the civil rights movement, it was clear that the Democratic Party was going to support civil rights for blacks, and the Republicans were going to be less enthusiastic for that.

HARRIS: All right, Dan, let's move forward to Jimmy Carter, and his October surprise was the one and only presidential debate in that cycle, and the miscalculations of his people, of Jimmy Carter's people.

ROBERTS: They thought Ronald Reagan, or they were portraying Ronald Reagan as a simpleton, and they did not recognize Ronald Reagan's substantial rhetorical abilities. And so Jimmy Carter, a week before the election, instead of earlier in the cycle, a week before the election got on the stage with Ronald Reagan and Reagan bested him. Had they even scheduled that one single debate earlier in the cycle, or if he had resisted it, because, as you know, the debates were not at their iconic status. He probably could have resisted that. Or if it had been earlier in the cycle, they probably could have done damage control.

HARRIS: Do you suggest that President Carter could have opted out of a debate altogether back then?

ROBERTS: He might have been able to do that. He could have said there are hostage in Iran, the inflation is eating us up, the economy is -- he might have been able to resist that at that point. As of now, of course no, candidate can resist the debate.

HARRIS: You know what else is interesting about that cycle is that both candidates were sort of angling for the release of the hostages, the 52 Americans at that time, so that it could cut as an October surprise for either of the candidates.

ROBERTS: Yes, that is exactly correct, but a lot of that angling was not in the public view. And unless they had been released or rescued, it certainly would not have worked to the advantage of either of the candidates.

HARRIS: The best October surprises do what, in your opinion?

ROBERTS: I believe that they shift the election. But you never know, of course, until after the election. And then you have to ask people exactly what it was that swayed their vote. And then you to look at the voting patterns to see if, in fact, one set of the -- one part of the demographic, one part of the country, one set of voters, swayed -- went for one of the other candidates and, therefore, swayed the election.

HARRIS: Maybe you just answered this question. Does the bin Laden tape, does that qualify as an October surprise?

ROBERTS: You know, we won't know. We won't know. When the tape came out, we had dignified statements from both candidates, and then you had commentators saying, well, of course, this terrorism makes people -- Americans anxious and they'll run home to papa. But about halfway through the weekend, commentators were asking the question, might an undecided voter, in fact, say, why is that guy still alive?

HARRIS: Yes, Dan, interesting stuff. Thank you. Thanks for taking the time to talk to us today.

ROBERTS: Thank you, Tony.

HARRIS: Kyra?

PHILLIPS: Well, no surprise that CNN will be avidly watching the returns tomorrow. Wolf Blitzer has a sneak peek of all the resources and strategies that will be going into our wall-to-wall coverage of this year's election.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Let me give you a tour of our CNN election headquarters. You're among the first to actually see what we're going to be doing. Behind me, you see this NASDAQ wall. We've got all of these video screens and an incredible amount of information we can put up here, and you'll see a lot what's going on as election returns come in.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think we'll all be sitting on the edge of our seat.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, I think it let be tight. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think, like, some big news, see what happens in Florida this year.

BLITZER: Florida, 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Once those polls close in Florida, we may be able to project a winner, but guess what, we may not be able to project a winner, and this time around, we're not taking any chances.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's a new system for calling that we trust. But then, there's a layer on top that says examine everything that they're doing and try to disprove it. And then, we add in the dynamics of lawyers. Sort of like what Ronald Reagan used to say, "Trust but verify."

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And the states that take the longest may be the ones that Bush and Kerry most need to win.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, states the Kerry campaign is watching very closely.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: So, they'll be looking at Florida, and they'll be looking at Ohio, which is in the Eastern time zone. Two big states -- he has to win at least one of those two, probably both of them.

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": I have people from both the Kerry and the Bush camps telling me that it is going to be over before early at 9:00. I'm not buying that yet.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My hunch is nobody's going to sleep very early Tuesday night.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Down in Times Square, people already know what they're looking for on Election Night.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, I'm a Bush man all the way.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need a change in this country, so I'm going to vote for Kerry.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And if that's not enough, don't forget the electoral college, governors, Senate, and House.

BLITZER: When I tell you we will have wall-to-wall coverage on Election Day, we really mean wall-to-wall coverage.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: It's wall to wall, all right. And tonight, Paula Zahn hosts another town hall meeting, this one in Florida on the undecided vote. That's at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 pacific. You can e-mail questions to cnn.com/paula.

And tomorrow, our special coverage starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern with Wolf Blitzer taking over Nasdaq Headquarters in New York. Look out. When it ends, we wouldn't dare to predict.

HARRIS: Turnout is everything this election year, but what if you don't plan on turning up? If you aren't going to vote this year, please tell us why. LIVE FROM wants to know. Just send an e-mail with your reason to us at livefrom@cnn.com. We'll read them next hour.

And if you are voting and you drive, say, a minivan or you prefer, say, mustard to ketchup, Kyra is -- are the latest polls correct about which way you'll vote? LIVE FROM's got your number right after this.

PHILLIPS: And your minivan.

HARRIS: And your minivan. And your ketchup.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Cnn.com is your home on Election Night if you want to customize your election returns for the races and issues that most interest you.

PHILLIPS: CNN technology correspondent Daniel Sieberg joins us live to explain how it's all done. He's the ambassador of election 2004. We named him last week.

HARRIS: OK.

DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN TECHNOLOGY CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Kyra, it's sort of a cyber ambassador...

PHILLIPS: There you go.

SIEBERG: ... or cnn.com's tour guide.

HARRIS: I see.

SIEBERG: Believe it or not, cnn.com going to be following more than 500 races online during Election Night. If you want to try and tailor them to what you want to follow, the candidates and issues, well, you can do that. If you go to cnn.com's main page, I'll show you how to do it.

You can see the main page here. And there's a link in the upper right-hand side. We'll just highlight it there. That's where you can go to tailor your races. Once you go there, you need to put in some personal information just to register for this site. Then, you'll come to this page. And one thing you can see just over here is where you can type in your zip code.

Now, once you've done that -- we're going to put in the zip code for here at CNN, which is in Georgia. Once you've done that, it will actually default to show all of the races that are in that particular area. You can see them here at the presidential level, the Senate level, and some of the amendments or the propositions that are involved -- in this case, the same-sex marriage amendment. Now, you can put in up to 20 different racing or issues. All that is done over here on this side where it says "Select Your Races." There's a drop-down menu here. It's very easy to use. It's very intuitive. For example, if you want to choose someone at the Senate level, you can see here in Arizona. And then it's a matter of clicking on the green add button. You add it over to this column on this side here. And pretty soon, you're going to start to end up with about -- well, you can have up to 20 different race or issues. And again, all at different levels. You can see if you go here to the ballot measures, there are other ones over here that you can choose from.

Now, you can also look at what some of CNN's anchors and analysts are following so you can get an idea for what's important. Maybe it's the battleground states or something else. Also, I'm going to scroll up here on this page. And on the upper right-hand side you can see where the next poll is closing. That can help you decide which one you want to follow, as well.

And once you've done all that, you simply scroll down to the bottom, and it says "Save My Races." Once you've done that, it's going to bring up a page that shows you sort of everything that you've chosen, and in a way where you can start to see the result in real time during Election Night, all the different things that you've selected on there. Again, focusing on what you want to see.

And on the right-hand side over here, there's also sort of a shortcut to some of the different things that you selected, your races, some of the close races and, of course, all the results as they come in.

And up here, there is sort of a legend or a key that gives you an idea of some of the places that are still voting, places that are too close to call. So, very comprehensive.

And again, this is up there now on cnn.com's main page. You might have to spend a little time setting it up. But once that's done, it's all tailored to what you want to follow. And of course, depending on how things go tomorrow night, you might have to keep logging in or stay logged on for awhile to see just how things go.

But again, you can tailor it to exactly what you want to see -- Kyra and Tony, back to you.

HARRIS: Just stay logged on.

PHILLIPS: Yeah, there you go. Just stay logged on. Don't ever leave the computer.

HARRIS: Absolutely.

SIEBERG: Exactly. They would love that.

PHILLIPS: We have nothing better to do anyway, right?

SIEBERG: They work hard there, believe me, at cnn.com... HARRIS: It's not like the whole world won't be watching. All right.

PHILLIPS: Thank you, Mr. Sieberg.

HARRIS: And coming up next, we'll send you back to New York for more Rhonda.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN SR. BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Tony and Kyra.

Coming up, details on one TV network's ratings reality check. CNN's LIVE FROM is coming right back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Just that I'm so sloppy up here, and you're so neat, and I'm just a mess.

Hi, hi, we're back.

Halloween is history, but the real scares are still ahead, to hear our Bill Schneider tell it.

The Count Floyd of LIVE FROM lays out some spine-tingling scenario, or maybe it's just the fun-sized butter fingers talking.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Think of all the scary scenarios we could end up with on Election Day.

Remember the 2000 Florida recount? That horror show lasted five weeks. This year we could have a lot of Floridas -- states with close results and disputed vote counts. With millions of newly registered voters, we're hearing some wild charges about registration fraud.

C. BOYDEN GRAY, FORMER BUSH WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: That's why the NAACP got an assistant to hand out crack cocaine in return for registrations.

SCHNEIDER: Both sides have armies of lawyers ready to fire lawsuits at each other.

DAVID BOIES, GORE 2000 CAMPAIGN ATTORNEY: I think when you have as many lawyers that are involved on both sides, there is a danger that they all try to find something to do.

SCHNEIDER: Now, that's scary.

Want to hear something even scarier? There are many ways the electoral vote could end up in a tie -- 269 for Kerry, 269 for Bush. Then what? Then the election goes to the House of Representatives in January, the new House, to be elected Tuesday. Here's the spooky part. Every state gets one vote. Fifty-three representatives from California, one vote. A single member of Congress from Vermont, one vote. It's likely that most states will continue to have more Republicans than Democrats in the House next year. So Bush would probably win.

But consider the spectacle of a president being elected by politicians instead of the people. The new Senate would elect the vice president, one vote per senator. There is a chance the Democrats could end up with a majority in the Senate. Imagine President Bush and Vice President John Edwards.

Not only that, but if several states end up with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the House, those states might abstain from casting a presidential vote. It's possible neither Bush nor Kerry could get the required 26 votes in the House.

Then what? Then the new vice president, elected by the Senate, becomes acting president. He gets to act in his own horror movie.

(on camera): The Web site ancestry.com reports that both Bush and Kerry can trace their ancestry back to a 15th century Transylvanian ruler nicknamed Vlad the Imapler, this guy, the model for the original Count Dracula. Pretty scary, huh boys and girls?

Bill Schneider, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: If that wasn't scary enough, how about more polls? is the condiment you like best the key to your voting habits? If so, which candidate cuts the mustard? Sorry. Couldn't refuse.

HARRIS: Or is it your nearest retail outlet that most accurately predicts which political message you're buying? OK, we're not kidding about this, but people have devoted time and money to figuring out that if you live closer to a Wal-Mart than a Starbucks, you're more likely to be a Bush voter. Kerry voters tend to live closer to Starbucks than Wal-Mart.

And...

PHILLIPS: What do you drive? If it's a minivan, SUV or truck, you're probably voting for Bush. If you're cruising in a sedan, you're likely to be picking Kerry.

Now the topper, your favorite topping. Mustard fans leading toward Bush, ketchup fanciers fancy Kerry. Geez, no brands mentioned. Heinz...

HARRIS: I just wanted the full condiment rack. Just give me the fully rack.

PHILLIPS: Say that six times. OK.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

PHILLIPS: All right, coming up in the second hour of LIVE FROM... HARRIS: what you haven't heard from the recent tape of Osama bin Laden. We're pulling out the transcript and taking a closer look.

LIVE FROM's hour of power begins after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired November 1, 2004 - 13:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: In the news now, a huge turnout predicted for tomorrow's presidential election. And in 11 states, another key issue is likely to bring voters to the polls, the issue of same-sex marriage. Eleven states will vote on Defense of Marriage ballot initiatives, banning same-sex marriage and/or civil unions. Since 1996, 39 states have enacted Defensive of Marriage Acts.
Prosecutors laying out the case one last time in the Scott Peterson trial. They're presenting closing arguments today. Juror will have two choices should they decide to convict Peterson. One would spare him the death penalty.

Chief Justice William Rehnquist headed out today, but not back to the bench. Rehnquist underwent a tracheotomy last week, and is now having outpatient treatment for thyroid cancer. In a statement, the chief justice said that his doctors thought his return to the Supreme Court today was too optimistic. Rehnquist will continue to work from home.

Keystone State is assumed to be one of the keys to victory for one presidential candidate or the other, and that could mean high drama in Lehigh County. In 2000, Lehigh registered the closest margin in all of Pennsylvania.

CNN's Jason Carroll went to the busiest precinct in Lehigh County to watch the preparations for election 2004. That's a lot of Lehigh.

Hi, Jason.

JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A whole lot of Lehighs.

It was definitely busy during the last presidential election, expected to be just as busy this go around, Kyra. But this time it's going to be different in the state of Pennsylvania, simply because Pennsylvania voters are going to be facing a lot more problems that they didn't have to face last time. First one being record number of registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania. A little bit more than 8.6 million registered voters in the state. The problem is the computer system that's supposed to process all those registered voters is painfully slow according to election workers, so they're definitely concerns about that. Also Republicans are accusing Democrats of padding the registration roles, a charge Democrats deny. Democrats, on the other hand, are accusing Republicans of voter intimidation tactics, especially in urban areas, a charge Republicans deny.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SEN. RICK SANTORUM (R), PENNSYLVANIA: Having people at the polls keeping track of registered voters and making sure that there is no fraud at the polls is not voter intimidation; it's only intimidation to those who are trying to commit fraud.

GOV. ED RENDELL (D), PENNSYLVANIA: All of this controversy is symptomatic of what has been a horribly divisive election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: There is one area where both Republicans and Democrats agree, and that is on the issue of the use of provisional ballots. Those the ballots that are used, let's say, if you registered to vote, you show up at the poll, but your name doesn't appear on some sort of an official record. You can -- you are then given a provisional ballot. Your ballot will be verified and counted three days after the election. But then you've got some election workers who say, we're not sure how well that process is going to work.

One thing is for sure, long lines out here at polling places, like this one in Lehigh County, and lots of attorneys on hand as well -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: I bet it's going to be a long day for you tomorrow, Jason. Thank you -- Tony.

CARROLL: Yes.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, now that October is over, what was the October surprise of this presidential contest? The missing explosive in Iraq, the latest video of Osama bin Laden, or was it something else entirely? Our next guest says we'll need distance before we can figure their out.

Dan Roberts joins us from the University of Richmond, Virginia, where he is an assistant history professor. Dan also hosts "A Moment in Time" on Public Radio.

Dan, good to see you.

DAN ROBERTS, ASST. PROF. OF HISTORY: Good to see you, Tony. Have you voted yet?

HARRIS: You know what, I should have taken advantage of the early voting, but you know what, the lines and the lines, they were long last week. That's a whole another story.

ROBERTS: You bet.

HARRIS: Let's talk about October surprises.

ROBERTS: Yes, sir.

HARRIS: Now, 1960, let's go back to 1960 and Nixon/Kennedy that race, and Martin Luther King's arrest, which, in fact, turned out to be an October surprise for Kennedy. Set it up for us. ROBERTS: Exactly. In 1960, of course, the election was going back and forth -- you had Nixon ahead and then Kennedy ahead, back and forth, and Kennedy needed a break, and it turned out to be urban black voters in northern cities, and the way he was able to reach them was support for the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who had been arrested on October 19th for a demonstration at the segregated -- at a Rich's department store in downtown Atlanta, yes, exactly. And he was just kind of cooling his heels in jail, and then he was sent to prison for a traffic violation, kept in prison for a traffic violation.

Kennedy called Mrs. King, Coretta Scott King, and, expressed his concern, and then dispatched brother Bobby to talk to Governor Vandervur (ph) of Georgia. Kennedy -- Dr. King was released on the 27th of October, and virtually endorsed Kennedy, which sent a signal to urban black voters, probably gave Kennedy the election.

HARRIS: What did Richard Nixon do?

ROBERTS: Richard Nixon did nothing, probably as a result of his long fascination with Southern conservative voters. It paid rich dividends for him in the three decades later for his party.

HARRIS: Well, explain that, take a moment and explain that.

ROBERTS: Nixon believed that Southern voters, Southern conservative white voters, were logical candidates for a Democratic -- for a Republican Party that was not going to be as supportive of the civil rights movement as it had been in the past. Many black voters were Republicans, and they voted for the Republicans because of the Lincoln legacy. But with the coming of the civil rights movement, it was clear that the Democratic Party was going to support civil rights for blacks, and the Republicans were going to be less enthusiastic for that.

HARRIS: All right, Dan, let's move forward to Jimmy Carter, and his October surprise was the one and only presidential debate in that cycle, and the miscalculations of his people, of Jimmy Carter's people.

ROBERTS: They thought Ronald Reagan, or they were portraying Ronald Reagan as a simpleton, and they did not recognize Ronald Reagan's substantial rhetorical abilities. And so Jimmy Carter, a week before the election, instead of earlier in the cycle, a week before the election got on the stage with Ronald Reagan and Reagan bested him. Had they even scheduled that one single debate earlier in the cycle, or if he had resisted it, because, as you know, the debates were not at their iconic status. He probably could have resisted that. Or if it had been earlier in the cycle, they probably could have done damage control.

HARRIS: Do you suggest that President Carter could have opted out of a debate altogether back then?

ROBERTS: He might have been able to do that. He could have said there are hostage in Iran, the inflation is eating us up, the economy is -- he might have been able to resist that at that point. As of now, of course no, candidate can resist the debate.

HARRIS: You know what else is interesting about that cycle is that both candidates were sort of angling for the release of the hostages, the 52 Americans at that time, so that it could cut as an October surprise for either of the candidates.

ROBERTS: Yes, that is exactly correct, but a lot of that angling was not in the public view. And unless they had been released or rescued, it certainly would not have worked to the advantage of either of the candidates.

HARRIS: The best October surprises do what, in your opinion?

ROBERTS: I believe that they shift the election. But you never know, of course, until after the election. And then you have to ask people exactly what it was that swayed their vote. And then you to look at the voting patterns to see if, in fact, one set of the -- one part of the demographic, one part of the country, one set of voters, swayed -- went for one of the other candidates and, therefore, swayed the election.

HARRIS: Maybe you just answered this question. Does the bin Laden tape, does that qualify as an October surprise?

ROBERTS: You know, we won't know. We won't know. When the tape came out, we had dignified statements from both candidates, and then you had commentators saying, well, of course, this terrorism makes people -- Americans anxious and they'll run home to papa. But about halfway through the weekend, commentators were asking the question, might an undecided voter, in fact, say, why is that guy still alive?

HARRIS: Yes, Dan, interesting stuff. Thank you. Thanks for taking the time to talk to us today.

ROBERTS: Thank you, Tony.

HARRIS: Kyra?

PHILLIPS: Well, no surprise that CNN will be avidly watching the returns tomorrow. Wolf Blitzer has a sneak peek of all the resources and strategies that will be going into our wall-to-wall coverage of this year's election.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Let me give you a tour of our CNN election headquarters. You're among the first to actually see what we're going to be doing. Behind me, you see this NASDAQ wall. We've got all of these video screens and an incredible amount of information we can put up here, and you'll see a lot what's going on as election returns come in.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think we'll all be sitting on the edge of our seat.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, I think it let be tight. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think, like, some big news, see what happens in Florida this year.

BLITZER: Florida, 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Once those polls close in Florida, we may be able to project a winner, but guess what, we may not be able to project a winner, and this time around, we're not taking any chances.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's a new system for calling that we trust. But then, there's a layer on top that says examine everything that they're doing and try to disprove it. And then, we add in the dynamics of lawyers. Sort of like what Ronald Reagan used to say, "Trust but verify."

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And the states that take the longest may be the ones that Bush and Kerry most need to win.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, states the Kerry campaign is watching very closely.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: So, they'll be looking at Florida, and they'll be looking at Ohio, which is in the Eastern time zone. Two big states -- he has to win at least one of those two, probably both of them.

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": I have people from both the Kerry and the Bush camps telling me that it is going to be over before early at 9:00. I'm not buying that yet.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My hunch is nobody's going to sleep very early Tuesday night.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Down in Times Square, people already know what they're looking for on Election Night.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, I'm a Bush man all the way.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need a change in this country, so I'm going to vote for Kerry.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And if that's not enough, don't forget the electoral college, governors, Senate, and House.

BLITZER: When I tell you we will have wall-to-wall coverage on Election Day, we really mean wall-to-wall coverage.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: It's wall to wall, all right. And tonight, Paula Zahn hosts another town hall meeting, this one in Florida on the undecided vote. That's at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 pacific. You can e-mail questions to cnn.com/paula.

And tomorrow, our special coverage starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern with Wolf Blitzer taking over Nasdaq Headquarters in New York. Look out. When it ends, we wouldn't dare to predict.

HARRIS: Turnout is everything this election year, but what if you don't plan on turning up? If you aren't going to vote this year, please tell us why. LIVE FROM wants to know. Just send an e-mail with your reason to us at livefrom@cnn.com. We'll read them next hour.

And if you are voting and you drive, say, a minivan or you prefer, say, mustard to ketchup, Kyra is -- are the latest polls correct about which way you'll vote? LIVE FROM's got your number right after this.

PHILLIPS: And your minivan.

HARRIS: And your minivan. And your ketchup.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Cnn.com is your home on Election Night if you want to customize your election returns for the races and issues that most interest you.

PHILLIPS: CNN technology correspondent Daniel Sieberg joins us live to explain how it's all done. He's the ambassador of election 2004. We named him last week.

HARRIS: OK.

DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN TECHNOLOGY CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Kyra, it's sort of a cyber ambassador...

PHILLIPS: There you go.

SIEBERG: ... or cnn.com's tour guide.

HARRIS: I see.

SIEBERG: Believe it or not, cnn.com going to be following more than 500 races online during Election Night. If you want to try and tailor them to what you want to follow, the candidates and issues, well, you can do that. If you go to cnn.com's main page, I'll show you how to do it.

You can see the main page here. And there's a link in the upper right-hand side. We'll just highlight it there. That's where you can go to tailor your races. Once you go there, you need to put in some personal information just to register for this site. Then, you'll come to this page. And one thing you can see just over here is where you can type in your zip code.

Now, once you've done that -- we're going to put in the zip code for here at CNN, which is in Georgia. Once you've done that, it will actually default to show all of the races that are in that particular area. You can see them here at the presidential level, the Senate level, and some of the amendments or the propositions that are involved -- in this case, the same-sex marriage amendment. Now, you can put in up to 20 different racing or issues. All that is done over here on this side where it says "Select Your Races." There's a drop-down menu here. It's very easy to use. It's very intuitive. For example, if you want to choose someone at the Senate level, you can see here in Arizona. And then it's a matter of clicking on the green add button. You add it over to this column on this side here. And pretty soon, you're going to start to end up with about -- well, you can have up to 20 different race or issues. And again, all at different levels. You can see if you go here to the ballot measures, there are other ones over here that you can choose from.

Now, you can also look at what some of CNN's anchors and analysts are following so you can get an idea for what's important. Maybe it's the battleground states or something else. Also, I'm going to scroll up here on this page. And on the upper right-hand side you can see where the next poll is closing. That can help you decide which one you want to follow, as well.

And once you've done all that, you simply scroll down to the bottom, and it says "Save My Races." Once you've done that, it's going to bring up a page that shows you sort of everything that you've chosen, and in a way where you can start to see the result in real time during Election Night, all the different things that you've selected on there. Again, focusing on what you want to see.

And on the right-hand side over here, there's also sort of a shortcut to some of the different things that you selected, your races, some of the close races and, of course, all the results as they come in.

And up here, there is sort of a legend or a key that gives you an idea of some of the places that are still voting, places that are too close to call. So, very comprehensive.

And again, this is up there now on cnn.com's main page. You might have to spend a little time setting it up. But once that's done, it's all tailored to what you want to follow. And of course, depending on how things go tomorrow night, you might have to keep logging in or stay logged on for awhile to see just how things go.

But again, you can tailor it to exactly what you want to see -- Kyra and Tony, back to you.

HARRIS: Just stay logged on.

PHILLIPS: Yeah, there you go. Just stay logged on. Don't ever leave the computer.

HARRIS: Absolutely.

SIEBERG: Exactly. They would love that.

PHILLIPS: We have nothing better to do anyway, right?

SIEBERG: They work hard there, believe me, at cnn.com... HARRIS: It's not like the whole world won't be watching. All right.

PHILLIPS: Thank you, Mr. Sieberg.

HARRIS: And coming up next, we'll send you back to New York for more Rhonda.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN SR. BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Tony and Kyra.

Coming up, details on one TV network's ratings reality check. CNN's LIVE FROM is coming right back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Just that I'm so sloppy up here, and you're so neat, and I'm just a mess.

Hi, hi, we're back.

Halloween is history, but the real scares are still ahead, to hear our Bill Schneider tell it.

The Count Floyd of LIVE FROM lays out some spine-tingling scenario, or maybe it's just the fun-sized butter fingers talking.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Think of all the scary scenarios we could end up with on Election Day.

Remember the 2000 Florida recount? That horror show lasted five weeks. This year we could have a lot of Floridas -- states with close results and disputed vote counts. With millions of newly registered voters, we're hearing some wild charges about registration fraud.

C. BOYDEN GRAY, FORMER BUSH WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: That's why the NAACP got an assistant to hand out crack cocaine in return for registrations.

SCHNEIDER: Both sides have armies of lawyers ready to fire lawsuits at each other.

DAVID BOIES, GORE 2000 CAMPAIGN ATTORNEY: I think when you have as many lawyers that are involved on both sides, there is a danger that they all try to find something to do.

SCHNEIDER: Now, that's scary.

Want to hear something even scarier? There are many ways the electoral vote could end up in a tie -- 269 for Kerry, 269 for Bush. Then what? Then the election goes to the House of Representatives in January, the new House, to be elected Tuesday. Here's the spooky part. Every state gets one vote. Fifty-three representatives from California, one vote. A single member of Congress from Vermont, one vote. It's likely that most states will continue to have more Republicans than Democrats in the House next year. So Bush would probably win.

But consider the spectacle of a president being elected by politicians instead of the people. The new Senate would elect the vice president, one vote per senator. There is a chance the Democrats could end up with a majority in the Senate. Imagine President Bush and Vice President John Edwards.

Not only that, but if several states end up with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the House, those states might abstain from casting a presidential vote. It's possible neither Bush nor Kerry could get the required 26 votes in the House.

Then what? Then the new vice president, elected by the Senate, becomes acting president. He gets to act in his own horror movie.

(on camera): The Web site ancestry.com reports that both Bush and Kerry can trace their ancestry back to a 15th century Transylvanian ruler nicknamed Vlad the Imapler, this guy, the model for the original Count Dracula. Pretty scary, huh boys and girls?

Bill Schneider, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: If that wasn't scary enough, how about more polls? is the condiment you like best the key to your voting habits? If so, which candidate cuts the mustard? Sorry. Couldn't refuse.

HARRIS: Or is it your nearest retail outlet that most accurately predicts which political message you're buying? OK, we're not kidding about this, but people have devoted time and money to figuring out that if you live closer to a Wal-Mart than a Starbucks, you're more likely to be a Bush voter. Kerry voters tend to live closer to Starbucks than Wal-Mart.

And...

PHILLIPS: What do you drive? If it's a minivan, SUV or truck, you're probably voting for Bush. If you're cruising in a sedan, you're likely to be picking Kerry.

Now the topper, your favorite topping. Mustard fans leading toward Bush, ketchup fanciers fancy Kerry. Geez, no brands mentioned. Heinz...

HARRIS: I just wanted the full condiment rack. Just give me the fully rack.

PHILLIPS: Say that six times. OK.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

PHILLIPS: All right, coming up in the second hour of LIVE FROM... HARRIS: what you haven't heard from the recent tape of Osama bin Laden. We're pulling out the transcript and taking a closer look.

LIVE FROM's hour of power begins after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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