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Bush Campaigns in Five Battleground States; Kerry Makes Last Minute Campaign Stops; Arafat's Illness Could Spell End of Reign

Aired November 01, 2004 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I ask you to join me to change the direction of this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Frank Buckley, live at Senator Kerry's next stop, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. But coming up, we'll tell you what he said earlier in Florida about President Bush's famous line, that it's hard work.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Elaine Quijano, live at the White House. President Bush says the finish line is in sight and that he has the energy and the enthusiasm to make it across. I'll tell you where he is now and where he's headed next, coming up.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Potential polling problems. Can this system handle what could be the biggest voter turnout in history? We're live from the busiest precinct in America.

From the CNN Center in Atlanta, it's a busy day. I'm Kyra Phillips.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Tony Harris, in for Miles O'Brien. CNN's LIVE FROM starts right now.

PHILLIPS: Forget the home stretch. After hundreds of days, thousands of speeches, million of miles, the candidates for U.S. president are steps away from the finish line, and they're still neck and neck.

CNN's final poll of polls gives President Bush an apparent two percentage point edge over Senator Kerry. But yet again, that gap is well within the survey's margin of error.

Breaking out of the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll of likely voters we see another two-point spread, with Ralph Nader drawing one percent and three percent still undecided. But Gallup then looked at past elections and estimated most of those undecided voters will go to Kerry. That results in a 49-49 tie.

HARRIS: So many states, so little time. Actually there aren't that many battleground states, anywhere from eight to 13, depending on how you count. And George W. Bush is hitting five of them in 13 hours. He started in Wilmington, Ohio, then went to Burgettstown, Pennsylvania, then to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, one hour before a John Kerry event. You will hear more about that in a moment.

Next to Des Moines, Iowa, then Sioux City and then a long flight, presumably a nap en route to Albuquerque, New Mexico. Even then he's not done. He will rally in Dallas before heading home to Crawford.

But Texas isn't exactly a battleground this time around. CNN's Elaine Quijano is watching the comings and goings from a spot that ironically is off the political radar today, the White House.

Hello, Elaine.

QUIJANO: Hello to you, Tony. That's right. The last time the president was here at the White House was when he left on Friday morning. He has been out in full force on the campaign trail since then.

And at this hour, as you mentioned, he is revving up supporters out in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Wisconsin, of course, a key battleground state. Mr. Bush doing all he can to energize his base. That means filling his speeches with tried and true audience favorites, painting Senator Kerry as weak on terrorism, as a tax and spend liberal who favors big government.

The president making the case that his own time in office, his time as commander in chief, makes him more qualified to lead the country through difficult times.

In his waning hours, of course, the president also reaching out to independents. But in between stops this morning, the president talked to reporters about how he is feeling with less than one day to go.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is a seven-stop day because I want to continue telling the people what I intend to do to protect them and how I intend to put policies in place to make sure America is a hopeful place.

I'm look forward to the day. Really I am. I'm excited about the size of the crowds. I'm energized by the support that I have received across this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Now, a little over 11 hours to go until the official end time of the president's last campaign stop. That will be in Dallas, Texas, before he moves on to his ranch for the overnight in Crawford.

Now, senior Bush aides say that they are feeling good about a couple of states, Ohio also Wisconsin. Now, that is a state that actually went to Al Gore but by a very narrow margin, just 5,700 votes in 2000. Aides feeling very confident this time around about their chances there. And the president, as you heard him say, feeling very energized at this point -- Tony.

HARRIS: Just rolling along. Elaine Quijano at the White House. Elaine, thank you.

PHILLIPS: All right. I'm going to top your line-up. Here we go.

HARRIS: OK.

PHILLIPS: You may noticed Florida was missing from the Bush itinerary, but not John Kerry's. The Democrat, a Catholic, went to mass this morning in Orlando for All Saints Day. Then he flew north to Milwaukee, missing Bush by barely an hour.

Next up, Detroit, followed by Cleveland, then back to Wisconsin, where he'll squeeze in one last event in the morning before heading home to Boston to watch the returns.

CNN's Frank Buckley is in Milwaukee, where a cold rain is a perfect antidote to campaign fatigue. Or maybe perfect's not exactly the word.

What's up, Frank?

BUCKLEY: Well, Kyra, let's call it a perfect storm. Not only do we have the rain here falling down, but we have both candidates appearing in downtown Milwaukee, about three blocks apart. President Bush speaking right now. Senator Kerry is to speak here in about an hour or so.

The fact that they're both appearing in Milwaukee, in Wisconsin, really once again underscoring the importance of this state on election eve.

Now Senator Kerry started his day today in Florida, the senator's last appearance on the ground in Florida, an airport rally in Orlando. The senator there gave a shortened stump speech, but it included his line in which he mocks President Bush for his performance in that first presidential debate when the president said repeatedly that it's hard work.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: Today and tomorrow, Mr. President, millions of Americans are going to help me to do what we need to do, which is relieve you of that hard work and set America in a new direction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: Now, here in Wisconsin, the latest polling from CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup indicating that President Bush has an eight- point lead over Senator Kerry here in the Badger State. But other polls show it as a statistic call dead heat.

But the fact that the -- both candidates are here really an indication of how important and how both candidates believe that it's a tight race here. Wisconsin, Kyra, went to Al Gore in 2000 by less than one percent, on fact, 0.2 of one percent. So, this is a state that President Bush is trying to take away, those ten electoral votes. Senator Kerry trying to hold on here -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, Frank Buckley. We'll continue to check in with you. Thanks a lot -- Tony.

HARRIS: Well, you've heard a lot about Ohio, but if you show up there to vote you won't hear from partisan poll watchers who were planning to challenge voter eligibility. Two federal judges today handed an election eve defeat to the Ohio Republican Party, which still plans to appeal.

Nationwide, new voter registration has been a source of discord for at least two weeks. Apart from hair trigger sensitivity on both parties after the mess in 2000, registration is way up in several of the battlegrounds. Check out Florida, up 17 percent; in Nevada, up 22.

The figures only add to the unpredictability of the outcome, not to mention the gray hairs on CNN political analyst Carlos Watson.

What am I talking about you and gray hairs? Look at me here. Hi, Carlos, good to see you.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you. But you know, you can't give away all my secrets. I want to seem kind of young and strong.

HARRIS: OK. You know what, you've got it. All right? I'm endorsing that this year, all right?

WATSON: All right.

HARRIS: Let's start with Ohio. Just remind us again of what these poll challengers were going to do in Ohio, before this ruling from the federal judges.

WATSON: They were going to question whether or not some of the new voters really lived where they said they lived and had properly registered. And this is just one, as you said, of several fights that we've seen in Ohio over whether or not a lot of the newly registered people, some half million newly registered voters, have done all the right things.

There's some question, though -- and I was just in Ohio on Thursday -- as to whether this whole skirmish may have a backlash effect, and whether it may actually spur even more turnout as people look to overcome challenges and doubts about whether or not they're able to vote.

HARRIS: OK, Carlos, 1.5 million new voters in Florida. You know, if all of these people -- we just mentioned that new voters, or registrations are up all over the country. If all of these new voters show up and vote, it's great for the system, but potentially could we have a bit of a mess on the ground? WATSON: Well, we already started to see a mess in the early voting. You know, Tony, one of the interesting things is when everything's said and done we may have 1.5, two million people cast early votes or absentee ballot in Florida. And already there you saw problems with electronic voting systems going down or not syncing up, with not enough poll workers, with not enough precincts.

So, make no mistake about it, you are certainly going to hear about that. You're also likely to see some legal challenges follow up, no matter what happens.

HARRIS: Let's move to the policy front for these candidates. If President Bush wins a second term, what are we likely to see, for example, on the tax front?

WATSON: Well, you know, Tony, I think that's one of the least discussed but maybe most significant stories of this campaign, is the number of really significant policy proposals that have come out on both sides.

You just mentioned taxes. The president has said that he will try and make permanent his fairly significant across the board tax cuts. If he does so and does so particularly during a time of war, that would be a fundamental reorientation of taxation policy and would be just one of several major policy changes if he ultimately is elected.

HARRIS: Yes. Let's tick off another one. What does the president mean when he's talking about an opportunity society?

WATSON: The president's policy advisors fundamentally believe that as we move into the information economy that it's important to give people more choices and maybe less, quote, unquote, "of a safety net."

So, whether it's on healthcare, whether it's on educational choice, they're arguing for more choice and less government involvement.

You also see that, by the way, on Social Security. You know, for younger workers they want them to be able to put money in private accounts, which Democrats have called privatization and which Republicans have pulled back from calling it that.

HARRIS: And if John Kerry wins, how fundamental a shift are we talking about, say, in the area of healthcare?

WATSON: Well, I mean, you know, since Harry Truman back in the mid and late '40s, you heard a lot of talk about trying to cover all Americans, and certainly lots of industrialized countries do that in terms of healthcare. But that hasn't happened there.

But John Kerry does have a major proposal on the table that will cover almost every American, certainly many of the 45 million who are uninsured. So, that would be a big policy change. Two other areas, Tony, to think about are his energy policy. And it might change the kind of car that you drive or I drive or Kyra drives. And then, also, on the environment, especially Kyra. You could never trust -- you can't trust that Kyra Phillips.

PHILLIPS: You've always got to get a dig.

HARRIS: Oh, no, no, no.

PHILLIPS: We're in the middle of a serious segment; he's always got to dis me.

HARRIS: I'm so happy to hear it. I'm so happy -- go ahead, Carlos. I'm so happy to hear you bringing her into the conversation. Thank you.

WATSON: Well, you know -- you know I love Kyra Phillips, but we just have to be careful about her.

HARRIS: Set the record straight.

WATSON: But -- but in all seriousness, there's some major proposals on the table. And normally in a campaign you'll see one, maybe two big ideas. This time around, five or six when you take the two sides together. So, that's just one of many ways in which this has been an unusual election.

HARRIS: Carlos, good to see you. Thanks for taking the time.

WATSON: Good to see you. Thank you.

HARRIS: We'll see a lot of you tomorrow.

WATSON: Hey, and take care of my Kyra Phillips for me.

HARRIS: I will do that for you. She's in good hands. Carlos, thanks.

WATSON: OK. Take care.

PHILLIPS: Carlos does not have gray hair, by the way.

HARRIS: No.

PHILLIPS: He just graduated Harvard last semester. Let's get that straight.

HARRIS: Yes. Yes. Set the record straight.

All right. Now spend your election eve right here at CNN. Gray haired, I should talk.

Tonight, Paula Zahn hosts another town hall meeting, this one in Florida, on the undivided vote. That's at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 Pacific. And you can e-mail questions to CNN.com/Paula. Now tomorrow, our special coverage starts at 7 p.m. Eastern with Wolf Blitzer taking over NASDAQ headquarters in New York when it ends? Well, we wouldn't dare try to predict that.

PHILLIPS: That Wolf Blitzer, he's just taking it over.

If you just trust pundits and don't care for suspense, if you tend to buy firewood according to the Farmer's Almanac predictions for winter, boy, do we have some news for you, too.

The Washington Redskins lost yesterday, as you know, at home. Now, that supposedly bodes well for John Kerry, because since 1936 when the Redskins have won their last home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party won, also. And vice versa. Kerry says that he couldn't be more thrilled.

But before you take that at face value, consider the mask factor. Buycostumes.com -- get ready for this, Tony -- contends that Halloween mask sales have been accurate election predictors since at least 1992. And this year, Bush outsold Kerry 53 to 47 percent.

HARRIS: No one knows. No one knows.

PHILLIPS: They're just pulling everything out of the hat.

HARRIS: Just say it for the record and be done with it?

PHILLIPS: OK. Well, we'll see what happens tomorrow, obviously.

All right. We'll get back to science now. Rain has been known to dampen voter turnout. And much of that country is in for a rainy day, that's for sure.

You know, if it rains...

HARRIS: CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras -- Jacqui, go ahead.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Sure. If it rains for three days in the candidate's hometown, then they're going to be the winner. How about that?

PHILLIPS: See? There you go.

JERAS: I never heard it before. I just made it up.

HARRIS: I'm so confused.

PHILLIPS: Anyway...

(WEATHER REPORT)

HARRIS: Boy, you clear up all the confusion by just voting. It gets real simple at some point.

PHILLIPS: Vote, get it over with. We'll report it in the next, what, 48 hours? HARRIS: Absolutely.

PHILLIPS: So we hope?

HARRIS: We hope, yes. Jacqui, thank you.

Now for some Americans, rain or shine, they're still, believe this or not, not going to show up at any polling places. Are you one of those people who will not be voting in this election? If so, e- mail us and tell us why. We really want to know. Send it to livefrom@cnn.com. We'll read some of your responses a little later.

And what if there is a tie in the presidential race? Could we see a Bush/Edwards administration? Well, we're laying out some of the weird and wacky scenarios for you.

DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm technology correspondent Daniel Sieberg. How would you like to be no control of election news tomorrow night? A little later on LIVE FROM, I'll show you how to put CNN under your command.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: One American is believed to have been abducted in Baghdad. Iraq's interior ministry says that the American, a Sri Lanka and two Arab nationals were kidnapped from their office in western Baghdad today.

Iraq says that the four may have been working for a Saudi company. So far, there's no word of any demands from their captors.

It's been a relatively quiet day, though, in Falluja as U.S. troops prepare for a possible all-out assault. Troops are waiting for the call to go in and retake control of the city ahead of January elections.

Iraq's prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says that yesterday his patience is wearing thin and chances for a peaceful solution in Falluja are all but over.

Yasser Arafat showing improvement as he undergoes a fourth day of treatment at a Paris hospital. However, his doctors are still remaining mum on his condition until the complete tests take place later this week.

Regardless of the prognosis, though, it appears his reign of power could be over.

CNN's John Vause explains.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When Yasser Arafat was airlifted from his Ramallah compound he was leaving behind not just the West Bank but quite possibly what has been an unshakeable grip on power. Even if he recovers, Palestinians are now asking who or what will eventually take over and what the future will bring in a world without Arafat.

HANAN ASHHAWI, PALESTINIAN LEGISLATOR: The decision making will shift. And of course, there will be closer accountability, because other things that people accepted from Arafat or even forgave Arafat for it, because of his stature, they will not forgive anybody else.

VAUSE: What began as a case of stomach flu has now opened the door for political activists. Some see this as an opportunity to push for the kinds of reform Arafat has fought against for years, like open and accountable government, elections, and a reform of the Palestinian security services.

RIAD EL-MALKI, PALESTINIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: If this is the only opportunity offered to us as Palestinians, as reformers, as democrats, then we have to grasp that opportunity and start to build on it.

VAUSE: Already, there are symbolic signs of change. Arafat's empty chair at the executive meeting of the PLO. And the two men who are now running the government, former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and the former Prime Minister, Ahmed Qorei, have reputations as moderates.

SHIMON PERES, ISRAELI OPPOSITION LEADER: The Palestinian patriots (ph), they want to give something for nothing. But I'm convinced that they want to bring an end of the war, that they're against the war, that deep in their heart, they know that by political negotiations they can achieve much more than by the continuation of the terroristic activities.

VAUSE: But among Palestinians, Yasser Arafat remains the only leader they've ever known. And while he is still alive, regardless of his health, there seems little desire to publicly challenge his leadership.

PERES: He is a father figure, and you cannot fire a father.

VAUSE (on camera): Many Israelis have longed for the day when Yasser Arafat is not around. But that prospect brings with it new problems. There's no one, it seems, who has the stature and credibility of Arafat to make a peace deal with Israel and then sell it to the Palestinians. At least not for the time being.

John Vause, CNN, Jerusalem.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS (voice-over): Next on LIVE FROM, the October surprise. Is it this time bin Laden tape, missing explosives, the flu shot shortage? How lessons from past elections could show who will be the most surprised this election day. Later on LIVE FROM, the absolute last day to get you to vote for them. What sort of spin are they the candidates hoping will turn your head?

And tomorrow on LIVE FROM, three hours of special expanded election day coverage as America votes 2004.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: All right. Our writer, Lisa Clark, this is just for you. A little birthday shout out today to Hello Kitty.

It's true, the cat's meow of kitsch turns 30 today. Not only a pop icon for tot and Tony...

HARRIS: What?

PHILLIPS: Her image is proudly sorted (ph) by plenty of alleged adults from everything from T-shirts to handbags. Right now, there's even a charity Web auction underway offering everything from a custom Hello Kitty electric guitar to a pair of women's Steve Madden satin stiletto boots.

HARRIS: OK.

PHILLIPS: You can get me those for Christmas.

HARRIS: All right. All right.

PHILLIPS: I wonder why there's no kitten heels?

OK. And several LIVE FROM staffers pooling their lunch money to bid on this swanky Hello Kitty Airstream fitted out with fab accessories, even a Hello Kitty microwave.

Are you speechless?

HARRIS: Yes. I totally -- I think I've totally missed this whole -- The whole thing.

PHILLIPS: You never got into the Hello Kitty craze?

HARRIS: No. I totally...

PHILLIPS: Never as a kid?

HARRIS: You guys have been talking a it all morning. And I'm like, what did you -- I totally...

PHILLIPS: All right. I'll school you later.

HARRIS: Please.

PHILLIPS: So, what were you into about 20 something years ago? HARRIS: Parliament Funkadelic.

PHILLIPS: Oh, he had his platform shoes on.

Rhonda Schaffler, help me out here.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I would wear those boots, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Yes. Exactly. Wouldn't you?

SCHAFFLER: I would.

PHILLIPS: I've got to school Tony over here.

HARRIS: Yes, please help me -- Rhonda.

SCHAFFLER: You fill him in, Kyra, as I tell you what's going on here.

PHILLIPS: All right.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired November 1, 2004 - 13:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I ask you to join me to change the direction of this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Frank Buckley, live at Senator Kerry's next stop, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. But coming up, we'll tell you what he said earlier in Florida about President Bush's famous line, that it's hard work.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Elaine Quijano, live at the White House. President Bush says the finish line is in sight and that he has the energy and the enthusiasm to make it across. I'll tell you where he is now and where he's headed next, coming up.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Potential polling problems. Can this system handle what could be the biggest voter turnout in history? We're live from the busiest precinct in America.

From the CNN Center in Atlanta, it's a busy day. I'm Kyra Phillips.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Tony Harris, in for Miles O'Brien. CNN's LIVE FROM starts right now.

PHILLIPS: Forget the home stretch. After hundreds of days, thousands of speeches, million of miles, the candidates for U.S. president are steps away from the finish line, and they're still neck and neck.

CNN's final poll of polls gives President Bush an apparent two percentage point edge over Senator Kerry. But yet again, that gap is well within the survey's margin of error.

Breaking out of the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll of likely voters we see another two-point spread, with Ralph Nader drawing one percent and three percent still undecided. But Gallup then looked at past elections and estimated most of those undecided voters will go to Kerry. That results in a 49-49 tie.

HARRIS: So many states, so little time. Actually there aren't that many battleground states, anywhere from eight to 13, depending on how you count. And George W. Bush is hitting five of them in 13 hours. He started in Wilmington, Ohio, then went to Burgettstown, Pennsylvania, then to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, one hour before a John Kerry event. You will hear more about that in a moment.

Next to Des Moines, Iowa, then Sioux City and then a long flight, presumably a nap en route to Albuquerque, New Mexico. Even then he's not done. He will rally in Dallas before heading home to Crawford.

But Texas isn't exactly a battleground this time around. CNN's Elaine Quijano is watching the comings and goings from a spot that ironically is off the political radar today, the White House.

Hello, Elaine.

QUIJANO: Hello to you, Tony. That's right. The last time the president was here at the White House was when he left on Friday morning. He has been out in full force on the campaign trail since then.

And at this hour, as you mentioned, he is revving up supporters out in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Wisconsin, of course, a key battleground state. Mr. Bush doing all he can to energize his base. That means filling his speeches with tried and true audience favorites, painting Senator Kerry as weak on terrorism, as a tax and spend liberal who favors big government.

The president making the case that his own time in office, his time as commander in chief, makes him more qualified to lead the country through difficult times.

In his waning hours, of course, the president also reaching out to independents. But in between stops this morning, the president talked to reporters about how he is feeling with less than one day to go.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is a seven-stop day because I want to continue telling the people what I intend to do to protect them and how I intend to put policies in place to make sure America is a hopeful place.

I'm look forward to the day. Really I am. I'm excited about the size of the crowds. I'm energized by the support that I have received across this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Now, a little over 11 hours to go until the official end time of the president's last campaign stop. That will be in Dallas, Texas, before he moves on to his ranch for the overnight in Crawford.

Now, senior Bush aides say that they are feeling good about a couple of states, Ohio also Wisconsin. Now, that is a state that actually went to Al Gore but by a very narrow margin, just 5,700 votes in 2000. Aides feeling very confident this time around about their chances there. And the president, as you heard him say, feeling very energized at this point -- Tony.

HARRIS: Just rolling along. Elaine Quijano at the White House. Elaine, thank you.

PHILLIPS: All right. I'm going to top your line-up. Here we go.

HARRIS: OK.

PHILLIPS: You may noticed Florida was missing from the Bush itinerary, but not John Kerry's. The Democrat, a Catholic, went to mass this morning in Orlando for All Saints Day. Then he flew north to Milwaukee, missing Bush by barely an hour.

Next up, Detroit, followed by Cleveland, then back to Wisconsin, where he'll squeeze in one last event in the morning before heading home to Boston to watch the returns.

CNN's Frank Buckley is in Milwaukee, where a cold rain is a perfect antidote to campaign fatigue. Or maybe perfect's not exactly the word.

What's up, Frank?

BUCKLEY: Well, Kyra, let's call it a perfect storm. Not only do we have the rain here falling down, but we have both candidates appearing in downtown Milwaukee, about three blocks apart. President Bush speaking right now. Senator Kerry is to speak here in about an hour or so.

The fact that they're both appearing in Milwaukee, in Wisconsin, really once again underscoring the importance of this state on election eve.

Now Senator Kerry started his day today in Florida, the senator's last appearance on the ground in Florida, an airport rally in Orlando. The senator there gave a shortened stump speech, but it included his line in which he mocks President Bush for his performance in that first presidential debate when the president said repeatedly that it's hard work.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: Today and tomorrow, Mr. President, millions of Americans are going to help me to do what we need to do, which is relieve you of that hard work and set America in a new direction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: Now, here in Wisconsin, the latest polling from CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup indicating that President Bush has an eight- point lead over Senator Kerry here in the Badger State. But other polls show it as a statistic call dead heat.

But the fact that the -- both candidates are here really an indication of how important and how both candidates believe that it's a tight race here. Wisconsin, Kyra, went to Al Gore in 2000 by less than one percent, on fact, 0.2 of one percent. So, this is a state that President Bush is trying to take away, those ten electoral votes. Senator Kerry trying to hold on here -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, Frank Buckley. We'll continue to check in with you. Thanks a lot -- Tony.

HARRIS: Well, you've heard a lot about Ohio, but if you show up there to vote you won't hear from partisan poll watchers who were planning to challenge voter eligibility. Two federal judges today handed an election eve defeat to the Ohio Republican Party, which still plans to appeal.

Nationwide, new voter registration has been a source of discord for at least two weeks. Apart from hair trigger sensitivity on both parties after the mess in 2000, registration is way up in several of the battlegrounds. Check out Florida, up 17 percent; in Nevada, up 22.

The figures only add to the unpredictability of the outcome, not to mention the gray hairs on CNN political analyst Carlos Watson.

What am I talking about you and gray hairs? Look at me here. Hi, Carlos, good to see you.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you. But you know, you can't give away all my secrets. I want to seem kind of young and strong.

HARRIS: OK. You know what, you've got it. All right? I'm endorsing that this year, all right?

WATSON: All right.

HARRIS: Let's start with Ohio. Just remind us again of what these poll challengers were going to do in Ohio, before this ruling from the federal judges.

WATSON: They were going to question whether or not some of the new voters really lived where they said they lived and had properly registered. And this is just one, as you said, of several fights that we've seen in Ohio over whether or not a lot of the newly registered people, some half million newly registered voters, have done all the right things.

There's some question, though -- and I was just in Ohio on Thursday -- as to whether this whole skirmish may have a backlash effect, and whether it may actually spur even more turnout as people look to overcome challenges and doubts about whether or not they're able to vote.

HARRIS: OK, Carlos, 1.5 million new voters in Florida. You know, if all of these people -- we just mentioned that new voters, or registrations are up all over the country. If all of these new voters show up and vote, it's great for the system, but potentially could we have a bit of a mess on the ground? WATSON: Well, we already started to see a mess in the early voting. You know, Tony, one of the interesting things is when everything's said and done we may have 1.5, two million people cast early votes or absentee ballot in Florida. And already there you saw problems with electronic voting systems going down or not syncing up, with not enough poll workers, with not enough precincts.

So, make no mistake about it, you are certainly going to hear about that. You're also likely to see some legal challenges follow up, no matter what happens.

HARRIS: Let's move to the policy front for these candidates. If President Bush wins a second term, what are we likely to see, for example, on the tax front?

WATSON: Well, you know, Tony, I think that's one of the least discussed but maybe most significant stories of this campaign, is the number of really significant policy proposals that have come out on both sides.

You just mentioned taxes. The president has said that he will try and make permanent his fairly significant across the board tax cuts. If he does so and does so particularly during a time of war, that would be a fundamental reorientation of taxation policy and would be just one of several major policy changes if he ultimately is elected.

HARRIS: Yes. Let's tick off another one. What does the president mean when he's talking about an opportunity society?

WATSON: The president's policy advisors fundamentally believe that as we move into the information economy that it's important to give people more choices and maybe less, quote, unquote, "of a safety net."

So, whether it's on healthcare, whether it's on educational choice, they're arguing for more choice and less government involvement.

You also see that, by the way, on Social Security. You know, for younger workers they want them to be able to put money in private accounts, which Democrats have called privatization and which Republicans have pulled back from calling it that.

HARRIS: And if John Kerry wins, how fundamental a shift are we talking about, say, in the area of healthcare?

WATSON: Well, I mean, you know, since Harry Truman back in the mid and late '40s, you heard a lot of talk about trying to cover all Americans, and certainly lots of industrialized countries do that in terms of healthcare. But that hasn't happened there.

But John Kerry does have a major proposal on the table that will cover almost every American, certainly many of the 45 million who are uninsured. So, that would be a big policy change. Two other areas, Tony, to think about are his energy policy. And it might change the kind of car that you drive or I drive or Kyra drives. And then, also, on the environment, especially Kyra. You could never trust -- you can't trust that Kyra Phillips.

PHILLIPS: You've always got to get a dig.

HARRIS: Oh, no, no, no.

PHILLIPS: We're in the middle of a serious segment; he's always got to dis me.

HARRIS: I'm so happy to hear it. I'm so happy -- go ahead, Carlos. I'm so happy to hear you bringing her into the conversation. Thank you.

WATSON: Well, you know -- you know I love Kyra Phillips, but we just have to be careful about her.

HARRIS: Set the record straight.

WATSON: But -- but in all seriousness, there's some major proposals on the table. And normally in a campaign you'll see one, maybe two big ideas. This time around, five or six when you take the two sides together. So, that's just one of many ways in which this has been an unusual election.

HARRIS: Carlos, good to see you. Thanks for taking the time.

WATSON: Good to see you. Thank you.

HARRIS: We'll see a lot of you tomorrow.

WATSON: Hey, and take care of my Kyra Phillips for me.

HARRIS: I will do that for you. She's in good hands. Carlos, thanks.

WATSON: OK. Take care.

PHILLIPS: Carlos does not have gray hair, by the way.

HARRIS: No.

PHILLIPS: He just graduated Harvard last semester. Let's get that straight.

HARRIS: Yes. Yes. Set the record straight.

All right. Now spend your election eve right here at CNN. Gray haired, I should talk.

Tonight, Paula Zahn hosts another town hall meeting, this one in Florida, on the undivided vote. That's at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 Pacific. And you can e-mail questions to CNN.com/Paula. Now tomorrow, our special coverage starts at 7 p.m. Eastern with Wolf Blitzer taking over NASDAQ headquarters in New York when it ends? Well, we wouldn't dare try to predict that.

PHILLIPS: That Wolf Blitzer, he's just taking it over.

If you just trust pundits and don't care for suspense, if you tend to buy firewood according to the Farmer's Almanac predictions for winter, boy, do we have some news for you, too.

The Washington Redskins lost yesterday, as you know, at home. Now, that supposedly bodes well for John Kerry, because since 1936 when the Redskins have won their last home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party won, also. And vice versa. Kerry says that he couldn't be more thrilled.

But before you take that at face value, consider the mask factor. Buycostumes.com -- get ready for this, Tony -- contends that Halloween mask sales have been accurate election predictors since at least 1992. And this year, Bush outsold Kerry 53 to 47 percent.

HARRIS: No one knows. No one knows.

PHILLIPS: They're just pulling everything out of the hat.

HARRIS: Just say it for the record and be done with it?

PHILLIPS: OK. Well, we'll see what happens tomorrow, obviously.

All right. We'll get back to science now. Rain has been known to dampen voter turnout. And much of that country is in for a rainy day, that's for sure.

You know, if it rains...

HARRIS: CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras -- Jacqui, go ahead.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Sure. If it rains for three days in the candidate's hometown, then they're going to be the winner. How about that?

PHILLIPS: See? There you go.

JERAS: I never heard it before. I just made it up.

HARRIS: I'm so confused.

PHILLIPS: Anyway...

(WEATHER REPORT)

HARRIS: Boy, you clear up all the confusion by just voting. It gets real simple at some point.

PHILLIPS: Vote, get it over with. We'll report it in the next, what, 48 hours? HARRIS: Absolutely.

PHILLIPS: So we hope?

HARRIS: We hope, yes. Jacqui, thank you.

Now for some Americans, rain or shine, they're still, believe this or not, not going to show up at any polling places. Are you one of those people who will not be voting in this election? If so, e- mail us and tell us why. We really want to know. Send it to livefrom@cnn.com. We'll read some of your responses a little later.

And what if there is a tie in the presidential race? Could we see a Bush/Edwards administration? Well, we're laying out some of the weird and wacky scenarios for you.

DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm technology correspondent Daniel Sieberg. How would you like to be no control of election news tomorrow night? A little later on LIVE FROM, I'll show you how to put CNN under your command.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: One American is believed to have been abducted in Baghdad. Iraq's interior ministry says that the American, a Sri Lanka and two Arab nationals were kidnapped from their office in western Baghdad today.

Iraq says that the four may have been working for a Saudi company. So far, there's no word of any demands from their captors.

It's been a relatively quiet day, though, in Falluja as U.S. troops prepare for a possible all-out assault. Troops are waiting for the call to go in and retake control of the city ahead of January elections.

Iraq's prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says that yesterday his patience is wearing thin and chances for a peaceful solution in Falluja are all but over.

Yasser Arafat showing improvement as he undergoes a fourth day of treatment at a Paris hospital. However, his doctors are still remaining mum on his condition until the complete tests take place later this week.

Regardless of the prognosis, though, it appears his reign of power could be over.

CNN's John Vause explains.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When Yasser Arafat was airlifted from his Ramallah compound he was leaving behind not just the West Bank but quite possibly what has been an unshakeable grip on power. Even if he recovers, Palestinians are now asking who or what will eventually take over and what the future will bring in a world without Arafat.

HANAN ASHHAWI, PALESTINIAN LEGISLATOR: The decision making will shift. And of course, there will be closer accountability, because other things that people accepted from Arafat or even forgave Arafat for it, because of his stature, they will not forgive anybody else.

VAUSE: What began as a case of stomach flu has now opened the door for political activists. Some see this as an opportunity to push for the kinds of reform Arafat has fought against for years, like open and accountable government, elections, and a reform of the Palestinian security services.

RIAD EL-MALKI, PALESTINIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: If this is the only opportunity offered to us as Palestinians, as reformers, as democrats, then we have to grasp that opportunity and start to build on it.

VAUSE: Already, there are symbolic signs of change. Arafat's empty chair at the executive meeting of the PLO. And the two men who are now running the government, former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and the former Prime Minister, Ahmed Qorei, have reputations as moderates.

SHIMON PERES, ISRAELI OPPOSITION LEADER: The Palestinian patriots (ph), they want to give something for nothing. But I'm convinced that they want to bring an end of the war, that they're against the war, that deep in their heart, they know that by political negotiations they can achieve much more than by the continuation of the terroristic activities.

VAUSE: But among Palestinians, Yasser Arafat remains the only leader they've ever known. And while he is still alive, regardless of his health, there seems little desire to publicly challenge his leadership.

PERES: He is a father figure, and you cannot fire a father.

VAUSE (on camera): Many Israelis have longed for the day when Yasser Arafat is not around. But that prospect brings with it new problems. There's no one, it seems, who has the stature and credibility of Arafat to make a peace deal with Israel and then sell it to the Palestinians. At least not for the time being.

John Vause, CNN, Jerusalem.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS (voice-over): Next on LIVE FROM, the October surprise. Is it this time bin Laden tape, missing explosives, the flu shot shortage? How lessons from past elections could show who will be the most surprised this election day. Later on LIVE FROM, the absolute last day to get you to vote for them. What sort of spin are they the candidates hoping will turn your head?

And tomorrow on LIVE FROM, three hours of special expanded election day coverage as America votes 2004.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: All right. Our writer, Lisa Clark, this is just for you. A little birthday shout out today to Hello Kitty.

It's true, the cat's meow of kitsch turns 30 today. Not only a pop icon for tot and Tony...

HARRIS: What?

PHILLIPS: Her image is proudly sorted (ph) by plenty of alleged adults from everything from T-shirts to handbags. Right now, there's even a charity Web auction underway offering everything from a custom Hello Kitty electric guitar to a pair of women's Steve Madden satin stiletto boots.

HARRIS: OK.

PHILLIPS: You can get me those for Christmas.

HARRIS: All right. All right.

PHILLIPS: I wonder why there's no kitten heels?

OK. And several LIVE FROM staffers pooling their lunch money to bid on this swanky Hello Kitty Airstream fitted out with fab accessories, even a Hello Kitty microwave.

Are you speechless?

HARRIS: Yes. I totally -- I think I've totally missed this whole -- The whole thing.

PHILLIPS: You never got into the Hello Kitty craze?

HARRIS: No. I totally...

PHILLIPS: Never as a kid?

HARRIS: You guys have been talking a it all morning. And I'm like, what did you -- I totally...

PHILLIPS: All right. I'll school you later.

HARRIS: Please.

PHILLIPS: So, what were you into about 20 something years ago? HARRIS: Parliament Funkadelic.

PHILLIPS: Oh, he had his platform shoes on.

Rhonda Schaffler, help me out here.

RHONDA SCHAFFLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I would wear those boots, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Yes. Exactly. Wouldn't you?

SCHAFFLER: I would.

PHILLIPS: I've got to school Tony over here.

HARRIS: Yes, please help me -- Rhonda.

SCHAFFLER: You fill him in, Kyra, as I tell you what's going on here.

PHILLIPS: All right.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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