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Bush, Kerry Rally Faithful on Election Day; Presidential Historian Shares Election Tales

Aired November 02, 2004 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CO-HOST: Motorcade John Kerry en route to Boston right now. These pictures via our affiliate WCVB. Guess what he's doing? He's getting ready to go vote. His wife already did in Fox Chapel, Pennsylvania, so now it's his turn.
We'll take a quick break. More LIVE FROM right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(WEATHER REPORT)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MILES O'BRIEN, CO-HOST: This is the president of the United States. He is meeting at a campaign office in Columbus, Ohio, addressing some of the workers there. Let's listen. This is not live; this is a tape, a feed. Let listen in.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's a big turnout, it's good for our system.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

BUSH: Oh, you know, I -- I was asked that question by another one of the pundits earlier, trying -- trying to guess about the outcome of the election. I -- you need to talk to the experts. I can just tell you what I've seen.

I've seen enthusiasm, a willingness for people to put in extra hours of work. And we'll find out how it goes tonight. This election is in the best of hands. It's in the hands of the voters of Ohio and the voters all around the country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sir, you may no pundit, but you certainly paid pretty close attention. Give us a sense of how you all view our -- tracking the numbers and the voters (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and so forth.

BUSH: Well, David, ever since I last talked to you, which was outside the voting booth in Crawford, which was a couple of hours ago, I've had a couple of cups of coffee. I've spent some quality time with my wife.

And I am going to -- I am going to run this race out to its fullest. I will be able to have -- both of us will be able to say that we campaigned as hard as we possibly could. I have made the differences as clear as possible about -- about why I think I am the best leader for the country for the next four years.

And, you know, we'll find out tonight what the American people think, and I'm looking forward to it.

Thank you all.

LAURA BUSH, FIRST LADY: Thanks, everybody. Thanks a lot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: We certainly hope we will find out tonight. Of course, a lot of discussion about when we will get the results. The president of the United States, first lady Laura Bush in Columbus, Ohio, at a Bush campaign office there, addressing them.

With six hours, 24 minutes and 19 seconds to go, but before the first statewide polls shut down, I hand it to you, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Whoever is elected president must deal with the ongoing bloody fight for Iraq.

Again, today, car bombs exploded, killing or injuring a number of Iraqis. At least six are dead in Baghdad after a car filled with explosives slammed into barriers outside the education ministry. We're told that at least eight others were wounded.

And to the north in Mosul a security convoy was the target. Four civilians were killed. At least 12 Iraqi National Guard members were wounded.

O'BRIEN: What's happening out west as voters head to the polls in showdown states like Colorado and Nevada, you may ask. There is plenty at stake for both candidates. We'll have the latest from there for you.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Live pictures, Times Square, which will be the epicenter of CNN's coverage tonight of election 2004, the NASDAQ Exchange being the heart and soul of the operation. The largest array of flat panel screens in the world to bring you, in a more comprehensive way, the results as we watch every state at every moment for you.

Stay with us all day into tomorrow -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Miles, what an ad lib.

Well, this election, is it really the wild, wild west? Well, Colorado and Nevada are just two showdown states out west. Both states have a combined 14 electoral votes, and candidates are vying for all of them. We're monitoring the polls in both states.

CNN's Miguel Marcus live from Henderson, Nevada. CNN's Thelma Gutierrez, live from Aurora, Colorado -- Miguel.

MIGUEL MARCUS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: How are you there, Kyra? We -- This is in Clark County, just south of Las Vegas, Nevada, where about 70 percent of the votes come from in this state.

Want to show you, Nevada is interesting and unique in one respect. They do all electronic voting here. This is the new machine here. Let me show you this new machine real quickly.

What's interesting about this thing is that there is a receipt that the voter can actually see. So the voter, once he votes or she votes, can actually see the votes that they cast come up on this receipt, that you can't take can you. It's under glass and then that's recorded in the event there is a recount.

The older machines here, you can see somewhat older, they also are able to record the votes. They are also electronic, but their votes are recorded in back so you don't actually see it.

I want to introduce you to somebody whose normal job here is running the airport, McCarran International Airport here. Today, he is running a polling station. This is Randall Walker.

You are the team leader, the boss here in the room. How are things going here today?

RANDALL WALKER, ELECTION WORKER: Very smoothly. Voters have been very heavy beginning first thing in the morning. Slowed down a little bit. Starting to pick up a little bit more now.

Just normal minor issues of people showing up at the wrong polling place, and we redirect them to the right polling place. So far everything has just been really smooth.

MARCUS: We've heard about poll watchers from both the Democrats and the Republicans showing up. Have you had any of that? Are there any issues here at this polling station here today?

WALKER: We have had a couple of poll watchers come and ask us when we're going to post the results of how many people, who's voted. We do that at 9, so the first posting went out. They're free to come and look at that information and then do with it whatever they may.

But they have not interfered in any way. I haven't even hardly noticed they're here.

MARCUS: And the numbers that you're seeing, what is the biggest concern that you have going -- what's the biggest problem that voters have when they come in here?

WALKER: Well, I don't -- There are really not very many problems other than the people who show up to the wrong polling place for whatever reason. And fortunately, the county has provided us a computer that has all of the registered voters and the polling place they're supposed to -- that they're assigned to. And we look it up and then we direct them to the right location. MARCUS: Great. Thanks very much. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time out here, and results, at least for the absentee and the early voters, which are quite sizable, should be released shortly after that, as soon as the lines have worn down.

Back to you.

PHILLIPS: All right, Miguel. Thanks so much. And also, you can see the countdown clock right there on the screen.

Now, let's go to Colorado where voters are not only deciding on the presidential race; they're also voting on a key amendment that could have a big impact on the electoral vote count.

Hi, Thelma.

THELMA GUTIERREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Kyra.

Well, you know, we're standing in a polling site that is actually a first for Colorado. We are in a mosque, the Abu Baqar (ph) Mosque. And Colorado voters have voted in presidential elections before in churches and also synagogues, but never before in a mosque. And that is until the Muslim Society of Colorado opened its doors and offered up the site.

Now, so far, 500 people have cast their votes here this morning. Four different precincts are reporting here.

You can see behind me that there are 12 touch screen voting machines which are similar to the ones used in Nevada. Difference here is that they are controversial, because they're no paper trail in order to confirm how people have voted.

So far the monitors from both parties have said that things have gone very smoothly. Colorado is a state where I.D.s are required, and so at each and every table I.D.s have been checked so that voters can be verified before they cast their ballots.

Now, lines here formed early this morning. About an hour before those doors opened many people braved the subzero temperatures, the subfreezing temperatures to make sure that their vote is counted.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I voted for Bush. He's got strong legs. September 11 really hurt us and just to see the strength in him.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think we'll be safer with John Kerry. I really do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUTIERREZ: Now, 30 percent of the state has already voted either by absentee or by early voting, and they're expecting a huge turnout today, between 70 to 75 percent turnout in the state.

Kyra, back to you.

PHILLIPS: Thelma Gutierrez, thank you so much.

Don't forget: CNN is your campaign headquarters. Don't miss CNN's primetime election coverage. Wolf Blitzer is our man. He heads up our coverage beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern.

Also, make sure to visit special online content at CNN.com.

O'BRIEN: All right. We're going to spend a little bit of time today with this. It's kind of our Bible, "Presidential Research and Editorial Guide," which came -- the handiwork of our excellent political unit here.

We've been going through it and having some fun with it today. For example, if John Kerry were elected today, and we find that out today, at 6'4" he would tie Abraham Lincoln for the prize as the tallest president.

If President Bush wins, trying to do this fair and balanced here, he would become the 14th incumbent president to win re-election, but the 15th president to be re-elected if he wins. And you're thinking, well, how could that be? We'll explain that a little bit later.

We'll also be following the footsteps of the candidates every step of the way. Of course, these pictures, these aerials come from our affiliate in Boston, WHDH. One of those three black vehicles, those Yukons headed toward Boston, carries John Kerry, his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry. We're going to guess it's the middle one, since that's what they're zooming in on.

He's on his way to Beacon Hill to vote. After that, a cup of chowder. We're following it. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: All right. In case you missed it, it is election day '04. The partisans and the pundits are calling it the most important presidential election ever. Don't they say that every four years?

Polling places now open all across the nation. We're told turnout, and we're glad to report this, is mostly high. As you see, the two candidates deciding, voters are deciding between President Bush and John Kerry, of course.

Presidential election history is dotted with sore losers, hard winners, somber winners, believe it or not. Somber winners.

Richard Shenkman has documented most of them in his book, "Presidential Ambition: How the Presidents Gained Power, Kept Power and Got Things Going." Mr. Shenkman joins us now from Seattle.

Good to see you again.

RICHARD SHENKMAN, AUTHOR, "PRESIDENTIAL AMBITION": Howdy.

O'BRIEN: What -- let's talk about incumbents. Incumbents, well, they assume they're going to win, don't they?

SHENKMAN: It's remarkable, but even when the polls show them down, these are people who are used to success. They're used to winning by the time they get to be president, and they cannot believe that they're going to lose.

Not even Herbert Hoover at the height of the Great Depression going into that election thought that he was going to lose.

He travels 11,000 miles across the country to reach his hometown of Stanford in California. He goes to the polls. He votes. He goes home. And then he goes into a little room where he starts getting the telegrams, and the news is just devastating.

He comes downstairs for a dinner party that's supposed to be some kind of a celebration, and he is distraught. His friends describe him as being out of it. He doesn't even seem to know who he is. He can't believe what's happened to him.

He goes out to talk to a group of people outside who are "sis- boom-bahing" it and cheering him. He starts to cry. He has to leave. He goes back inside.

O'BRIEN: Wow. So, obviously, it never even occurred to him that he might lose. He just, obviously, wasn't reading the papers very closely throughout that period of time.

SHENKMAN: Not in their gut.

O'BRIEN: Yes.

SHENKMAN: You know, these presidents are used to winning, and they cannot conceive of losing. It's part of the reason why they do win, because they have that great self-confidence.

O'BRIEN: Well, now you mentioned that self-confidence, and when you think of self-confidence Franklin Delano Roosevelt comes to line. This is a man who battled back from polio. Just a tremendous ability to lead through dark times in this country.

And yet there's an interesting story you tell about the night of his first election, when it first became apparent he had this tremendous responsibility.

SHENKMAN: He's at Biltmore Hotel in downtown New York City. He hears the news he's going to be the next president of the United States. He goes and he visits his mother. They have a little celebration.

But then that night as he climbs into bed, his son Jimmy Roosevelt tells us later that his father said, "You know, I've only been scared of one thing in my whole life, and that's fire." Because he had polio; he couldn't escape if there were a fire. He said, "But tonight, I've got a second fear. I don't know if I'm strong enough to do this job."

That's really interesting coming from Franklin Roosevelt, who we always associated with great and enormous confidence.

O'BRIEN: That is an insight. That is something that tells me something about him that I hadn't heard before.

Let's talk about close elections for just a moment. Nineteen- sixty, of course, was one of those elections that was razor thin. John F. Kennedy went to sleep that night, well, that morning, actually, not knowing the outcome. Tell us what happened after that.

SHENKMAN: It's 3:30 in the morning. He thinks he's going to be the next president, but he doesn't know. There are many returns yet to come in, and he doesn't know. He goes to bed.

Around 9 in the morning, Ted Sorensen, a speechwriter, comes in and he says, "You're going to be the next president of the United States. We've heard the returns from the six contested states that we were worried about. And it turned out," he said, "you won them all in a grand sweep."

But he doesn't immediately go outside and announce, "I'm president of the United States." He waits for Richard Nixon to concede. Nixon sends out his press secretary to make a concession, and then finally, at noon, John Kennedy comes out and he says, "I'm the president."

O'BRIEN: And Nixon never called him.

SHENKMAN: No, Nixon didn't call him. But later on they wound up meeting. But not at that moment. Not at that moment.

O'BRIEN: We're just about out of time. But, quickly, back in '92 the person who told the senior Bush that he had lost was George W. Bush. Kind of an interesting little potential -- well, it might lay the groundwork for something tonight, potentially.

SHENKMAN: Exactly. Who you're going to send in to give bad news to the president that the exit polls are going south on you. They decided it was going to be George W. Bush, so he told his father, "Sorry, we're going to lose."

O'BRIEN: Richard Shenkman, whose book, "Presidential Ambition" is worth picking up. He's with George Mason University, as well, joining us from Seattle. Always a pleasure. Thanks for dropping by.

SHENKMAN: All right, thanks, Miles.

O'BRIEN: And we'll be back with more in just a moment. Stay with LIVE FROM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: You're looking at live pictures right now, democracy in action. This out of Henderson, Nevada. This is what all the campaign speeches and rallies have been talking about, getting voters psyched and out to the polls. Voters are flooding precincts now across the country, today in this hotly contested presidential race. And who's going to win? It's anybody's guess at this point.

The polls are open for several more hours, and you can see there at the bottom of your screen. Some people think this clock is a little confusing. They think it's backwards. But actually, this is the countdown to when all the polls close statewide.

Now, you can count, of course, on your CNN headquarters. Special in-depth look at all the balloting kicks off 7 p.m. Eastern. Wolf Blitzer heading our coverage.

Judy Woodruff and CNN's entire election staff bringing you up to the minute polling results state by state.

O'BRIEN: Live pictures once again hovering again Boston, Massachusetts, courtesy of the WHDH helicopter. That's the Kerry motorcade as it hones in on its target, the state house on Beacon Hill, where Senator Kerry will cast his vote. We'll give you three guesses who he's voting for. First two don't count.

He is there with his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who already voted in another state, which adds to the large body of presidential trivia. The only couple we can imagine with a candidate who voted in separate states.

All right, we're done for this hour. Thanks for being with us on an extended LIVE FROM. We've got two more hours to go, which means you've got two more hours to spend with us. So stay with us as we continue our coverage of election 2004.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired November 2, 2004 - 12:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CO-HOST: Motorcade John Kerry en route to Boston right now. These pictures via our affiliate WCVB. Guess what he's doing? He's getting ready to go vote. His wife already did in Fox Chapel, Pennsylvania, so now it's his turn.
We'll take a quick break. More LIVE FROM right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(WEATHER REPORT)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MILES O'BRIEN, CO-HOST: This is the president of the United States. He is meeting at a campaign office in Columbus, Ohio, addressing some of the workers there. Let's listen. This is not live; this is a tape, a feed. Let listen in.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's a big turnout, it's good for our system.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

BUSH: Oh, you know, I -- I was asked that question by another one of the pundits earlier, trying -- trying to guess about the outcome of the election. I -- you need to talk to the experts. I can just tell you what I've seen.

I've seen enthusiasm, a willingness for people to put in extra hours of work. And we'll find out how it goes tonight. This election is in the best of hands. It's in the hands of the voters of Ohio and the voters all around the country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sir, you may no pundit, but you certainly paid pretty close attention. Give us a sense of how you all view our -- tracking the numbers and the voters (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and so forth.

BUSH: Well, David, ever since I last talked to you, which was outside the voting booth in Crawford, which was a couple of hours ago, I've had a couple of cups of coffee. I've spent some quality time with my wife.

And I am going to -- I am going to run this race out to its fullest. I will be able to have -- both of us will be able to say that we campaigned as hard as we possibly could. I have made the differences as clear as possible about -- about why I think I am the best leader for the country for the next four years.

And, you know, we'll find out tonight what the American people think, and I'm looking forward to it.

Thank you all.

LAURA BUSH, FIRST LADY: Thanks, everybody. Thanks a lot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: We certainly hope we will find out tonight. Of course, a lot of discussion about when we will get the results. The president of the United States, first lady Laura Bush in Columbus, Ohio, at a Bush campaign office there, addressing them.

With six hours, 24 minutes and 19 seconds to go, but before the first statewide polls shut down, I hand it to you, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Whoever is elected president must deal with the ongoing bloody fight for Iraq.

Again, today, car bombs exploded, killing or injuring a number of Iraqis. At least six are dead in Baghdad after a car filled with explosives slammed into barriers outside the education ministry. We're told that at least eight others were wounded.

And to the north in Mosul a security convoy was the target. Four civilians were killed. At least 12 Iraqi National Guard members were wounded.

O'BRIEN: What's happening out west as voters head to the polls in showdown states like Colorado and Nevada, you may ask. There is plenty at stake for both candidates. We'll have the latest from there for you.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Live pictures, Times Square, which will be the epicenter of CNN's coverage tonight of election 2004, the NASDAQ Exchange being the heart and soul of the operation. The largest array of flat panel screens in the world to bring you, in a more comprehensive way, the results as we watch every state at every moment for you.

Stay with us all day into tomorrow -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Miles, what an ad lib.

Well, this election, is it really the wild, wild west? Well, Colorado and Nevada are just two showdown states out west. Both states have a combined 14 electoral votes, and candidates are vying for all of them. We're monitoring the polls in both states.

CNN's Miguel Marcus live from Henderson, Nevada. CNN's Thelma Gutierrez, live from Aurora, Colorado -- Miguel.

MIGUEL MARCUS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: How are you there, Kyra? We -- This is in Clark County, just south of Las Vegas, Nevada, where about 70 percent of the votes come from in this state.

Want to show you, Nevada is interesting and unique in one respect. They do all electronic voting here. This is the new machine here. Let me show you this new machine real quickly.

What's interesting about this thing is that there is a receipt that the voter can actually see. So the voter, once he votes or she votes, can actually see the votes that they cast come up on this receipt, that you can't take can you. It's under glass and then that's recorded in the event there is a recount.

The older machines here, you can see somewhat older, they also are able to record the votes. They are also electronic, but their votes are recorded in back so you don't actually see it.

I want to introduce you to somebody whose normal job here is running the airport, McCarran International Airport here. Today, he is running a polling station. This is Randall Walker.

You are the team leader, the boss here in the room. How are things going here today?

RANDALL WALKER, ELECTION WORKER: Very smoothly. Voters have been very heavy beginning first thing in the morning. Slowed down a little bit. Starting to pick up a little bit more now.

Just normal minor issues of people showing up at the wrong polling place, and we redirect them to the right polling place. So far everything has just been really smooth.

MARCUS: We've heard about poll watchers from both the Democrats and the Republicans showing up. Have you had any of that? Are there any issues here at this polling station here today?

WALKER: We have had a couple of poll watchers come and ask us when we're going to post the results of how many people, who's voted. We do that at 9, so the first posting went out. They're free to come and look at that information and then do with it whatever they may.

But they have not interfered in any way. I haven't even hardly noticed they're here.

MARCUS: And the numbers that you're seeing, what is the biggest concern that you have going -- what's the biggest problem that voters have when they come in here?

WALKER: Well, I don't -- There are really not very many problems other than the people who show up to the wrong polling place for whatever reason. And fortunately, the county has provided us a computer that has all of the registered voters and the polling place they're supposed to -- that they're assigned to. And we look it up and then we direct them to the right location. MARCUS: Great. Thanks very much. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time out here, and results, at least for the absentee and the early voters, which are quite sizable, should be released shortly after that, as soon as the lines have worn down.

Back to you.

PHILLIPS: All right, Miguel. Thanks so much. And also, you can see the countdown clock right there on the screen.

Now, let's go to Colorado where voters are not only deciding on the presidential race; they're also voting on a key amendment that could have a big impact on the electoral vote count.

Hi, Thelma.

THELMA GUTIERREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Kyra.

Well, you know, we're standing in a polling site that is actually a first for Colorado. We are in a mosque, the Abu Baqar (ph) Mosque. And Colorado voters have voted in presidential elections before in churches and also synagogues, but never before in a mosque. And that is until the Muslim Society of Colorado opened its doors and offered up the site.

Now, so far, 500 people have cast their votes here this morning. Four different precincts are reporting here.

You can see behind me that there are 12 touch screen voting machines which are similar to the ones used in Nevada. Difference here is that they are controversial, because they're no paper trail in order to confirm how people have voted.

So far the monitors from both parties have said that things have gone very smoothly. Colorado is a state where I.D.s are required, and so at each and every table I.D.s have been checked so that voters can be verified before they cast their ballots.

Now, lines here formed early this morning. About an hour before those doors opened many people braved the subzero temperatures, the subfreezing temperatures to make sure that their vote is counted.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I voted for Bush. He's got strong legs. September 11 really hurt us and just to see the strength in him.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think we'll be safer with John Kerry. I really do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUTIERREZ: Now, 30 percent of the state has already voted either by absentee or by early voting, and they're expecting a huge turnout today, between 70 to 75 percent turnout in the state.

Kyra, back to you.

PHILLIPS: Thelma Gutierrez, thank you so much.

Don't forget: CNN is your campaign headquarters. Don't miss CNN's primetime election coverage. Wolf Blitzer is our man. He heads up our coverage beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern.

Also, make sure to visit special online content at CNN.com.

O'BRIEN: All right. We're going to spend a little bit of time today with this. It's kind of our Bible, "Presidential Research and Editorial Guide," which came -- the handiwork of our excellent political unit here.

We've been going through it and having some fun with it today. For example, if John Kerry were elected today, and we find that out today, at 6'4" he would tie Abraham Lincoln for the prize as the tallest president.

If President Bush wins, trying to do this fair and balanced here, he would become the 14th incumbent president to win re-election, but the 15th president to be re-elected if he wins. And you're thinking, well, how could that be? We'll explain that a little bit later.

We'll also be following the footsteps of the candidates every step of the way. Of course, these pictures, these aerials come from our affiliate in Boston, WHDH. One of those three black vehicles, those Yukons headed toward Boston, carries John Kerry, his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry. We're going to guess it's the middle one, since that's what they're zooming in on.

He's on his way to Beacon Hill to vote. After that, a cup of chowder. We're following it. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: All right. In case you missed it, it is election day '04. The partisans and the pundits are calling it the most important presidential election ever. Don't they say that every four years?

Polling places now open all across the nation. We're told turnout, and we're glad to report this, is mostly high. As you see, the two candidates deciding, voters are deciding between President Bush and John Kerry, of course.

Presidential election history is dotted with sore losers, hard winners, somber winners, believe it or not. Somber winners.

Richard Shenkman has documented most of them in his book, "Presidential Ambition: How the Presidents Gained Power, Kept Power and Got Things Going." Mr. Shenkman joins us now from Seattle.

Good to see you again.

RICHARD SHENKMAN, AUTHOR, "PRESIDENTIAL AMBITION": Howdy.

O'BRIEN: What -- let's talk about incumbents. Incumbents, well, they assume they're going to win, don't they?

SHENKMAN: It's remarkable, but even when the polls show them down, these are people who are used to success. They're used to winning by the time they get to be president, and they cannot believe that they're going to lose.

Not even Herbert Hoover at the height of the Great Depression going into that election thought that he was going to lose.

He travels 11,000 miles across the country to reach his hometown of Stanford in California. He goes to the polls. He votes. He goes home. And then he goes into a little room where he starts getting the telegrams, and the news is just devastating.

He comes downstairs for a dinner party that's supposed to be some kind of a celebration, and he is distraught. His friends describe him as being out of it. He doesn't even seem to know who he is. He can't believe what's happened to him.

He goes out to talk to a group of people outside who are "sis- boom-bahing" it and cheering him. He starts to cry. He has to leave. He goes back inside.

O'BRIEN: Wow. So, obviously, it never even occurred to him that he might lose. He just, obviously, wasn't reading the papers very closely throughout that period of time.

SHENKMAN: Not in their gut.

O'BRIEN: Yes.

SHENKMAN: You know, these presidents are used to winning, and they cannot conceive of losing. It's part of the reason why they do win, because they have that great self-confidence.

O'BRIEN: Well, now you mentioned that self-confidence, and when you think of self-confidence Franklin Delano Roosevelt comes to line. This is a man who battled back from polio. Just a tremendous ability to lead through dark times in this country.

And yet there's an interesting story you tell about the night of his first election, when it first became apparent he had this tremendous responsibility.

SHENKMAN: He's at Biltmore Hotel in downtown New York City. He hears the news he's going to be the next president of the United States. He goes and he visits his mother. They have a little celebration.

But then that night as he climbs into bed, his son Jimmy Roosevelt tells us later that his father said, "You know, I've only been scared of one thing in my whole life, and that's fire." Because he had polio; he couldn't escape if there were a fire. He said, "But tonight, I've got a second fear. I don't know if I'm strong enough to do this job."

That's really interesting coming from Franklin Roosevelt, who we always associated with great and enormous confidence.

O'BRIEN: That is an insight. That is something that tells me something about him that I hadn't heard before.

Let's talk about close elections for just a moment. Nineteen- sixty, of course, was one of those elections that was razor thin. John F. Kennedy went to sleep that night, well, that morning, actually, not knowing the outcome. Tell us what happened after that.

SHENKMAN: It's 3:30 in the morning. He thinks he's going to be the next president, but he doesn't know. There are many returns yet to come in, and he doesn't know. He goes to bed.

Around 9 in the morning, Ted Sorensen, a speechwriter, comes in and he says, "You're going to be the next president of the United States. We've heard the returns from the six contested states that we were worried about. And it turned out," he said, "you won them all in a grand sweep."

But he doesn't immediately go outside and announce, "I'm president of the United States." He waits for Richard Nixon to concede. Nixon sends out his press secretary to make a concession, and then finally, at noon, John Kennedy comes out and he says, "I'm the president."

O'BRIEN: And Nixon never called him.

SHENKMAN: No, Nixon didn't call him. But later on they wound up meeting. But not at that moment. Not at that moment.

O'BRIEN: We're just about out of time. But, quickly, back in '92 the person who told the senior Bush that he had lost was George W. Bush. Kind of an interesting little potential -- well, it might lay the groundwork for something tonight, potentially.

SHENKMAN: Exactly. Who you're going to send in to give bad news to the president that the exit polls are going south on you. They decided it was going to be George W. Bush, so he told his father, "Sorry, we're going to lose."

O'BRIEN: Richard Shenkman, whose book, "Presidential Ambition" is worth picking up. He's with George Mason University, as well, joining us from Seattle. Always a pleasure. Thanks for dropping by.

SHENKMAN: All right, thanks, Miles.

O'BRIEN: And we'll be back with more in just a moment. Stay with LIVE FROM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: You're looking at live pictures right now, democracy in action. This out of Henderson, Nevada. This is what all the campaign speeches and rallies have been talking about, getting voters psyched and out to the polls. Voters are flooding precincts now across the country, today in this hotly contested presidential race. And who's going to win? It's anybody's guess at this point.

The polls are open for several more hours, and you can see there at the bottom of your screen. Some people think this clock is a little confusing. They think it's backwards. But actually, this is the countdown to when all the polls close statewide.

Now, you can count, of course, on your CNN headquarters. Special in-depth look at all the balloting kicks off 7 p.m. Eastern. Wolf Blitzer heading our coverage.

Judy Woodruff and CNN's entire election staff bringing you up to the minute polling results state by state.

O'BRIEN: Live pictures once again hovering again Boston, Massachusetts, courtesy of the WHDH helicopter. That's the Kerry motorcade as it hones in on its target, the state house on Beacon Hill, where Senator Kerry will cast his vote. We'll give you three guesses who he's voting for. First two don't count.

He is there with his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who already voted in another state, which adds to the large body of presidential trivia. The only couple we can imagine with a candidate who voted in separate states.

All right, we're done for this hour. Thanks for being with us on an extended LIVE FROM. We've got two more hours to go, which means you've got two more hours to spend with us. So stay with us as we continue our coverage of election 2004.

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