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Iraqi Politicians Demand Delay in Elections; Ukraine Leaders Meet to Discuss Disputed Election; Holiday Shoppers Seeking Bargains; CDC Prepares for Next Flu Crisis
Aired November 26, 2004 - 13:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, HOST: Going after Iraqi insurgents, but some Iraqi political parties say their country is still just too violent to hold elections in January. We're live from Baghdad.
Terror tune, a kiddy video with a disturbing message: Islamic martyrs go to heaven. For awhile it even got the seal of approval from an American ally.
On your mark, get set, shop. Americans grabbed the bargains while retailers dream of green Christmases. Shopping season.
And an amazing moment caught on tape. Watch this as a store delivery man gets the surprise of his life.
From the CNN Center in Atlanta I'm Kyra Phillips. Miles is off. CNN's LIVE FROM starts right now.
Up first this hour, demanding a delay. Iraq's leading political parties say the country's national elections should be postponed. And if they have their way, Iraqis wouldn't go to the polls in January, but closer to June or July.
CNN's Karl Penhaul is in Baghdad with the latest on this and other developments in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Fifteen of Iraq's new political parties held a meeting this afternoon in Baghdad. They came out of that meeting and have issued a call for a delay in nationwide elections.
As you know, the date for those elections has been set as January the 30th. But the parties in their meeting today decided that the timetable was too short, that the two-month timetable between now and then wasn't enough time to prepare for the elections, to campaign for the elections and also to create a secure security environment so that all Iraqis could enjoy their freedom to vote.
Now in the last few days, we have heard of Sunni Muslim political parties calling either for boycott or postponement of elections. The difference today, in addition to the Sunni Muslim parties, some secular parties and also the two main Kurdish parties joining the call for an election postponement. Amongst the political figures there at the meeting was Adnan Pachachi. He is a former president of the Iraqi Governing Council and well liked by the previous coalition authorities here.
In additional news in the city of Falluja, U.S. military spokesmen have told us that two Marines were killed. They were killed in an operation Thursday when the Marines entered a house in a house clearing operation. An insurgent apparently lobbed a grenade, killing those two Marines and in an ensuing firefight, three insurgents were killed, we understand.
But there was better news in Falluja Friday. Aid convoys are finally reaching the city with some regularity. We had a team on the ground there, and they told us that the signs and sights that they saw were of pure destruction, buildings in rubble everywhere, the remains of car bombs also.
But eventually, it's the humanitarian aid convoy under the auspices of the Iraqi Red Crescent made its way through the city. Some of the families, civilian families, did dare venture out to receive basic supplies of food, bread, water and blankets. We're told that's first time some of them have left their houses in more than ten days.
Karl Penhaul, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, it's the most protected area of Iraq, but insurgents have once again managed to strike inside Baghdad's Green Zone.
A mortar attack yesterday killed four members of a British security firm. Britain's foreign offices say they were of Nepalese origin, and more than a dozen people were wounded in that attack.
The Green Zone is regularly targeted, but most strikes cause little damage.
Now to another global hot spot. Live pictures now. It's the fifth day of protest in Ukraine over a disputed presidential election. And both the declared victor and the man who says fraud robbed him of victory are coming face to face today.
Let's listen in just for a moment.
(MUSIC)
PHILLIPS: We're being told that local police and security there Ukraine, as you can see there, by the local chorus are in support of the demonstrators live in downtown's Independence Square there in Kiev.
CNN's Jill Dougherty is in Kiev and has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A dramatic meeting here in Kiev between the two men who claim they legally should be the president of Ukraine. That is the government's candidate, the prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, and the opposition leader, Viktor Yuschenko.
Meeting at a round table at the Marinski (ph) Palace, along with the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, and a variety of European representatives led by Javier Solana of the E.U.
An attempt to bring them together for some type of negotiation, some way of resolving this peacefully, because after all, on the streets of Kiev, there are -- there are hundreds of thousands of people, supporters of the opposition candidate and the supporters of Mr. Yanukovych. And they have been there for five days in a row.
So as that continues, the opposition is now releasing something that they say will be a bombshell. They say that it is proof that there actually were irregularities in how the votes here in Ukraine was carried out.
That is audiotapes that the opposition say proved that the supporters of the government-backed candidate decided to try to increase their vote illegally. They say that they're going to bring that to the courts and try to prove what they have been saying all along.
So a high stakes gamble here. No word as to whether these talks, round table talks will lead to anything. It is a first step, at least, to establish some type of dialogue.
Jill Dougherty, CNN, Kiev, Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, Ukraine literally means "at the edge." And it's quite a fitting name for a country bordering two worlds, Russia and NATO's eastern flank. That's one reason why there's a lot at stake in the outcome of this election crisis.
Joining us now, terrorism expert Jim Walsh from JFK School of Government there at Harvard.
Good to see you, Jim.
JIM WALSH, JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Happy Thanksgiving, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Happy Thanksgiving to you. Let's put this in perspective. I guess, first of all, just to remind viewers, I mean, the last time we heard about this region, the infamous Chernobyl.
WALSH: That's right. Ukraine was host of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant that spread all that radioactive debris across the globe. They still have four working nuclear power plants. They' like to build two more. Luckily, Chernobyl is shut down. But again, it goes to your key point. The reason why that material floated across Europe and much of the west was because it is situated in between Russia and Europe. And it is a struggle now between Europe and Russia over what direction that country will take.
PHILLIPS: All right. Well, let's talk about the Russian=Ukraine dynamic and then we'll move toward the U.S. focus and what's at stake for the U.S.
But although this country does produce a little oil and natural gas itself, it's more the transit line, correct? So, of course, Putin would want a Kremlin-friendly prime minister for the sake of, I guess, for resources and for financial reasons.
WALSH: Well, yes, for a couple of reasons. One is, it is the buffer. You know, Ukrainians think of themselves as the gateway to Europe, the gateway to the west.
But the Russians think of Ukraine as a buffer, as a geographical protection against the threats that the west may pose. So one of the reasons why they want to keep Ukraine in their sphere of influence is security reasons.
Another reason is economic reasons. Ukraine was the richest and most developed of the former Soviet republics when the Soviet Union broke up. Now, it's had some tough economic times recently. They seem to be getting a little better, but it's still a lot better than some of those other poor undeveloped republics.
And then finally, it is one of the major consumers of Russian oil. And of course, that is a point of leverage, a way in which the Russians can influence what happens in Ukraine.
PHILLIPS: All right. Some of the concerns for the U.S. I guess one would be that the acting president, who is supporting the successor who we aren't sure now if he will be the successor or not, actually supported selling radar systems and other military hardware to Saddam Hussein.
WALSH: Well, I think one of the big issues here, when you think -- talk about Ukraine, is what has happened in Ukraine over -- under Kuchma. And what we've really had is a country that was pretty well off economically, has sort of drifted into corruption, a lack of transparency, some arms -- dark arms deals on the side supporting Iraq. And really siding with Russia over the west on some -- some of the Issues in which there are contentions.
So this whole issue of selling arms on the black market, that is directly tied to a lack of transparency, an increase in corruption and the need for reform, which is why this election is being contested.
Most people perceive the last two presidential terms under Kuchma as a drift towards corruption, and instead they are calling for reform.
PHILLIPS: And that's why they're standing up, and they don't want the successor that he's supporting.
Let's talk about import/export. Are there a lot of American businesses in the Ukraine? Is that -- is that a concern for the U.S.?
WALSH: No, I think less so -- as far as the U.S. in particular goes, when you look at their trading partners, traditionally Russia was Ukraine's leading trade partner.
But that's changed in recent years. Now the countries of the E.U., the European Union, are No. 1 in terms of trade with Ukraine. Russia is No. 2. And the U.S. is further down the list.
Foreign investment, not a lot of foreign investment from the west in Ukraine, again because of problems of corruption and the lack of transparency.
I think the U.S. interests in this issue are, one, democracy. And two, human rights, we continue to have human rights and proliferation problems in the Ukraine. And the finally, three, regional relations. What is Russia's role going to be here? That's what the U.S. is going to keep an eye on.
PHILLIPS: Meanwhile, the Ukraine sent 1,600 troops or so to Iraq to support the fall of Saddam Hussein.
And what's interesting, when you look at the live pictures, in the Independence Square area of Kiev, you see that security and the army has come forward and said that they support the demonstrators. And that's probably leading to the lack of a civil unrest at this point.
WALSH: Well, I think that's critical. In sorts of civil unrest situations where citizens are trying to peacefully take back their country, the role of the police and the role of the military is crucial. It is the swing vote.
If they turn against the protesters, it's unlikely that that sort of protest will succeed. But when they back the protesters, it really helps create a possibility of a peaceful transition.
So we have the military. We have the internal police and now, we have the supreme court, who are all saying wait, let's see about this election. It doesn't look like it's on the up and up. And that all favors the protesters at this point.
PHILLIPS: Jim Walsh, terrorism expert, Harvard University. Thanks, Jim.
WALSH: Thank you, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, it's kickoff day. Not on the football field but at stores all across America.
ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A sea of humanity and of shopping bags. I'm Allan Chernoff in midtown Manhattan in front of Macy's. We'll have the story coming ahead. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It was really great to go back, not as a soldier, but to perform for the soldiers, because I've been one of those people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: This former soldier put down his gun, picked up a microphone and went back to the war zone, armed with one-liners.
And an amazing whiz kid. This young boy from Oakland, California, is a virtuoso in Chinese opera. How did that happen? We're going to ask him when he joins us live later this hour.
ANNOUNCER: You're watching LIVE FROM on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: As you've probably heard, the retail industry calls the day after Thanksgiving Black Friday. It's when U.S. consumers descend on stores, outlets, malls. Right here, live pictures in front of Macy's, a day after the big parade.
Also the big day, they all want to go in there and get the good deals. Online merchants also expected to bring in pretty big numbers. But how much will shoppers drop this year?
CNN's Allan Chernoff, braving the weather and the throngs of dedicated spenders outside the Big Apple's flagship, Macy's, probably doing some shopping himself.
Hi, Allan.
CHERNOFF: Hi, Kyra.
Well, in terms of dropping, I think people here in New York City are thinking more in terms of the phrase "shop until you drop." That phrase must have been coined here in New York City.
The doors to Macy's opened at 6 in the morning. Sure enough, we had hundreds of people streaming in, searching for bargains, $50 for a microwave oven, $50 for a down jacket. These, in fact, are bargains helpful to families dealing with higher energy crises.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHERNOFF (voice-over): The road to the holiday season checkout counter passes through here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Could you fill it up, please?
CHERNOFF: Gasoline is 30 percent more expensive than last Thanksgiving. For families on tight budgets, that means less money to spend on holiday presents.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is going to be a more difficult Christmas, in every way.
CHERNOFF: A survey of consumers found nearly 30 percent predicting they'll cut holiday spending from last year. And shoppers expect to buy more than two-thirds of their gifts on sale.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I have to be more wise. I have to get more for my money, you know? As they say, I'm living on a budget.
CHERNOFF: So some retailers like Sears and JCPenney have been offering early mark downs, even before Thanksgiving.
WENDY FARINA, KURT SALMON ASSOCIATES: We think that the retailers have actually conditioned their consumers to buy on sale, particularly this time of year. That's a problem for retailers.
CHERNOFF: But for upscale retailers and the shoppers, it should be a season of plenty.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very optimistic about how things are going and I'm going to buy, buy, buy.
CHERNOFF: Items likely to be high on the shopping list, handbags, iPods, TiVo and digital cameras. But for the first time ever, shoppers say gift cards will be their most frequent purchase.
It may be a challenging season for discount retailers, but shopping at other outlets should more than compensate. That's why retailing experts predict holiday sales will rise four to six percent from last year.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHERNOFF: The average consumer is likely to spend more money but doesn't want to spend more time. Surveys indicate that shoppers this year are planning to visit fewer stores -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, Allan Chernoff, braving the crowds, thanks so much.
Well, the CDC counted three global flu outbreaks or pandemics in the 20th Century. In 1968's Hong Kong flu outbreak, 1957's Asian flu outbreak and the worst, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than a half million people in the United States and as many as 50 million people worldwide.
CNN's Aneesh Raman says that health officials are racing the clock ahead of what's predicted to be the next pandemic, bird flu. The World Health Organization now says it's no longer a question of if, but when.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A dramatic warning to the world, the WHO saying bird flu will likely cause the next human influenza pandemic. DR. KLAUS STOHR, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: Even with the best case scenario, the most optimistic scenarios, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency.
There are estimates which would put the number of death in the range of between two to seven million. The number of people affected would go by the billions, because between 25 and 30 percent will fall ill.
RAMAN: Pandemics occur when a completely new flu strain emerges for which humans have no immunity. There's no sense of when this might happen, the WHO saying it could be anywhere from next week to the coming year.
And with a human vaccine not expected until March 2005 at the earliest, urgency is being placed on containment.
DR. BJORN MELGAARD, HEAD OF WHO S.E. ASIA OFFICE: The countries that have the weakest health systems, of course, are in the need of the most support. And clearly, it usually is together the poorest countries have the least resources to invest in health.
RAMAN: The announcement comes ahead of a two-day meeting regional health ministers in Bangkok looking at how to pool efforts and comes just a few months after the first probable instance of human to human transmission emerged. At that time, the catch word was caution.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There is no reason to be panicked.
RAMAN: The case, health officials said, was a result of extreme conditions.
(on camera) The key to all of this is a mutation in the bird flu strain, making it easily transmitted from human to human. While before that was thought to be a worst-case scenario, it now seems to be a legitimate fear.
Aneesh Raman, CNN, Bangkok.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Your privacy, even your identity may not be quite what it used to be. It's a jungle out there in the cyberworld. And all next week on LIVE FROM, we'll explore the risks and what you can do about them.
Do you think you have a right to privacy?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why do we need privacy? That's the question. Like, why do people need privacy?
SIEBERG: Well, not everyone else agrees. At home, online, and in the workplace, we'll show you how to avoid your own identity crisis. Our series starts Monday with a look at spyware. It's probably on your computer. You didn't put it there, but it's following your every move.
We'll see you all next week on LIVE FROM.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 26, 2004 - 13:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, HOST: Going after Iraqi insurgents, but some Iraqi political parties say their country is still just too violent to hold elections in January. We're live from Baghdad.
Terror tune, a kiddy video with a disturbing message: Islamic martyrs go to heaven. For awhile it even got the seal of approval from an American ally.
On your mark, get set, shop. Americans grabbed the bargains while retailers dream of green Christmases. Shopping season.
And an amazing moment caught on tape. Watch this as a store delivery man gets the surprise of his life.
From the CNN Center in Atlanta I'm Kyra Phillips. Miles is off. CNN's LIVE FROM starts right now.
Up first this hour, demanding a delay. Iraq's leading political parties say the country's national elections should be postponed. And if they have their way, Iraqis wouldn't go to the polls in January, but closer to June or July.
CNN's Karl Penhaul is in Baghdad with the latest on this and other developments in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Fifteen of Iraq's new political parties held a meeting this afternoon in Baghdad. They came out of that meeting and have issued a call for a delay in nationwide elections.
As you know, the date for those elections has been set as January the 30th. But the parties in their meeting today decided that the timetable was too short, that the two-month timetable between now and then wasn't enough time to prepare for the elections, to campaign for the elections and also to create a secure security environment so that all Iraqis could enjoy their freedom to vote.
Now in the last few days, we have heard of Sunni Muslim political parties calling either for boycott or postponement of elections. The difference today, in addition to the Sunni Muslim parties, some secular parties and also the two main Kurdish parties joining the call for an election postponement. Amongst the political figures there at the meeting was Adnan Pachachi. He is a former president of the Iraqi Governing Council and well liked by the previous coalition authorities here.
In additional news in the city of Falluja, U.S. military spokesmen have told us that two Marines were killed. They were killed in an operation Thursday when the Marines entered a house in a house clearing operation. An insurgent apparently lobbed a grenade, killing those two Marines and in an ensuing firefight, three insurgents were killed, we understand.
But there was better news in Falluja Friday. Aid convoys are finally reaching the city with some regularity. We had a team on the ground there, and they told us that the signs and sights that they saw were of pure destruction, buildings in rubble everywhere, the remains of car bombs also.
But eventually, it's the humanitarian aid convoy under the auspices of the Iraqi Red Crescent made its way through the city. Some of the families, civilian families, did dare venture out to receive basic supplies of food, bread, water and blankets. We're told that's first time some of them have left their houses in more than ten days.
Karl Penhaul, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, it's the most protected area of Iraq, but insurgents have once again managed to strike inside Baghdad's Green Zone.
A mortar attack yesterday killed four members of a British security firm. Britain's foreign offices say they were of Nepalese origin, and more than a dozen people were wounded in that attack.
The Green Zone is regularly targeted, but most strikes cause little damage.
Now to another global hot spot. Live pictures now. It's the fifth day of protest in Ukraine over a disputed presidential election. And both the declared victor and the man who says fraud robbed him of victory are coming face to face today.
Let's listen in just for a moment.
(MUSIC)
PHILLIPS: We're being told that local police and security there Ukraine, as you can see there, by the local chorus are in support of the demonstrators live in downtown's Independence Square there in Kiev.
CNN's Jill Dougherty is in Kiev and has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A dramatic meeting here in Kiev between the two men who claim they legally should be the president of Ukraine. That is the government's candidate, the prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, and the opposition leader, Viktor Yuschenko.
Meeting at a round table at the Marinski (ph) Palace, along with the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, and a variety of European representatives led by Javier Solana of the E.U.
An attempt to bring them together for some type of negotiation, some way of resolving this peacefully, because after all, on the streets of Kiev, there are -- there are hundreds of thousands of people, supporters of the opposition candidate and the supporters of Mr. Yanukovych. And they have been there for five days in a row.
So as that continues, the opposition is now releasing something that they say will be a bombshell. They say that it is proof that there actually were irregularities in how the votes here in Ukraine was carried out.
That is audiotapes that the opposition say proved that the supporters of the government-backed candidate decided to try to increase their vote illegally. They say that they're going to bring that to the courts and try to prove what they have been saying all along.
So a high stakes gamble here. No word as to whether these talks, round table talks will lead to anything. It is a first step, at least, to establish some type of dialogue.
Jill Dougherty, CNN, Kiev, Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, Ukraine literally means "at the edge." And it's quite a fitting name for a country bordering two worlds, Russia and NATO's eastern flank. That's one reason why there's a lot at stake in the outcome of this election crisis.
Joining us now, terrorism expert Jim Walsh from JFK School of Government there at Harvard.
Good to see you, Jim.
JIM WALSH, JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Happy Thanksgiving, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Happy Thanksgiving to you. Let's put this in perspective. I guess, first of all, just to remind viewers, I mean, the last time we heard about this region, the infamous Chernobyl.
WALSH: That's right. Ukraine was host of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant that spread all that radioactive debris across the globe. They still have four working nuclear power plants. They' like to build two more. Luckily, Chernobyl is shut down. But again, it goes to your key point. The reason why that material floated across Europe and much of the west was because it is situated in between Russia and Europe. And it is a struggle now between Europe and Russia over what direction that country will take.
PHILLIPS: All right. Well, let's talk about the Russian=Ukraine dynamic and then we'll move toward the U.S. focus and what's at stake for the U.S.
But although this country does produce a little oil and natural gas itself, it's more the transit line, correct? So, of course, Putin would want a Kremlin-friendly prime minister for the sake of, I guess, for resources and for financial reasons.
WALSH: Well, yes, for a couple of reasons. One is, it is the buffer. You know, Ukrainians think of themselves as the gateway to Europe, the gateway to the west.
But the Russians think of Ukraine as a buffer, as a geographical protection against the threats that the west may pose. So one of the reasons why they want to keep Ukraine in their sphere of influence is security reasons.
Another reason is economic reasons. Ukraine was the richest and most developed of the former Soviet republics when the Soviet Union broke up. Now, it's had some tough economic times recently. They seem to be getting a little better, but it's still a lot better than some of those other poor undeveloped republics.
And then finally, it is one of the major consumers of Russian oil. And of course, that is a point of leverage, a way in which the Russians can influence what happens in Ukraine.
PHILLIPS: All right. Some of the concerns for the U.S. I guess one would be that the acting president, who is supporting the successor who we aren't sure now if he will be the successor or not, actually supported selling radar systems and other military hardware to Saddam Hussein.
WALSH: Well, I think one of the big issues here, when you think -- talk about Ukraine, is what has happened in Ukraine over -- under Kuchma. And what we've really had is a country that was pretty well off economically, has sort of drifted into corruption, a lack of transparency, some arms -- dark arms deals on the side supporting Iraq. And really siding with Russia over the west on some -- some of the Issues in which there are contentions.
So this whole issue of selling arms on the black market, that is directly tied to a lack of transparency, an increase in corruption and the need for reform, which is why this election is being contested.
Most people perceive the last two presidential terms under Kuchma as a drift towards corruption, and instead they are calling for reform.
PHILLIPS: And that's why they're standing up, and they don't want the successor that he's supporting.
Let's talk about import/export. Are there a lot of American businesses in the Ukraine? Is that -- is that a concern for the U.S.?
WALSH: No, I think less so -- as far as the U.S. in particular goes, when you look at their trading partners, traditionally Russia was Ukraine's leading trade partner.
But that's changed in recent years. Now the countries of the E.U., the European Union, are No. 1 in terms of trade with Ukraine. Russia is No. 2. And the U.S. is further down the list.
Foreign investment, not a lot of foreign investment from the west in Ukraine, again because of problems of corruption and the lack of transparency.
I think the U.S. interests in this issue are, one, democracy. And two, human rights, we continue to have human rights and proliferation problems in the Ukraine. And the finally, three, regional relations. What is Russia's role going to be here? That's what the U.S. is going to keep an eye on.
PHILLIPS: Meanwhile, the Ukraine sent 1,600 troops or so to Iraq to support the fall of Saddam Hussein.
And what's interesting, when you look at the live pictures, in the Independence Square area of Kiev, you see that security and the army has come forward and said that they support the demonstrators. And that's probably leading to the lack of a civil unrest at this point.
WALSH: Well, I think that's critical. In sorts of civil unrest situations where citizens are trying to peacefully take back their country, the role of the police and the role of the military is crucial. It is the swing vote.
If they turn against the protesters, it's unlikely that that sort of protest will succeed. But when they back the protesters, it really helps create a possibility of a peaceful transition.
So we have the military. We have the internal police and now, we have the supreme court, who are all saying wait, let's see about this election. It doesn't look like it's on the up and up. And that all favors the protesters at this point.
PHILLIPS: Jim Walsh, terrorism expert, Harvard University. Thanks, Jim.
WALSH: Thank you, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, it's kickoff day. Not on the football field but at stores all across America.
ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A sea of humanity and of shopping bags. I'm Allan Chernoff in midtown Manhattan in front of Macy's. We'll have the story coming ahead. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It was really great to go back, not as a soldier, but to perform for the soldiers, because I've been one of those people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: This former soldier put down his gun, picked up a microphone and went back to the war zone, armed with one-liners.
And an amazing whiz kid. This young boy from Oakland, California, is a virtuoso in Chinese opera. How did that happen? We're going to ask him when he joins us live later this hour.
ANNOUNCER: You're watching LIVE FROM on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: As you've probably heard, the retail industry calls the day after Thanksgiving Black Friday. It's when U.S. consumers descend on stores, outlets, malls. Right here, live pictures in front of Macy's, a day after the big parade.
Also the big day, they all want to go in there and get the good deals. Online merchants also expected to bring in pretty big numbers. But how much will shoppers drop this year?
CNN's Allan Chernoff, braving the weather and the throngs of dedicated spenders outside the Big Apple's flagship, Macy's, probably doing some shopping himself.
Hi, Allan.
CHERNOFF: Hi, Kyra.
Well, in terms of dropping, I think people here in New York City are thinking more in terms of the phrase "shop until you drop." That phrase must have been coined here in New York City.
The doors to Macy's opened at 6 in the morning. Sure enough, we had hundreds of people streaming in, searching for bargains, $50 for a microwave oven, $50 for a down jacket. These, in fact, are bargains helpful to families dealing with higher energy crises.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHERNOFF (voice-over): The road to the holiday season checkout counter passes through here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Could you fill it up, please?
CHERNOFF: Gasoline is 30 percent more expensive than last Thanksgiving. For families on tight budgets, that means less money to spend on holiday presents.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is going to be a more difficult Christmas, in every way.
CHERNOFF: A survey of consumers found nearly 30 percent predicting they'll cut holiday spending from last year. And shoppers expect to buy more than two-thirds of their gifts on sale.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I have to be more wise. I have to get more for my money, you know? As they say, I'm living on a budget.
CHERNOFF: So some retailers like Sears and JCPenney have been offering early mark downs, even before Thanksgiving.
WENDY FARINA, KURT SALMON ASSOCIATES: We think that the retailers have actually conditioned their consumers to buy on sale, particularly this time of year. That's a problem for retailers.
CHERNOFF: But for upscale retailers and the shoppers, it should be a season of plenty.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very optimistic about how things are going and I'm going to buy, buy, buy.
CHERNOFF: Items likely to be high on the shopping list, handbags, iPods, TiVo and digital cameras. But for the first time ever, shoppers say gift cards will be their most frequent purchase.
It may be a challenging season for discount retailers, but shopping at other outlets should more than compensate. That's why retailing experts predict holiday sales will rise four to six percent from last year.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHERNOFF: The average consumer is likely to spend more money but doesn't want to spend more time. Surveys indicate that shoppers this year are planning to visit fewer stores -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, Allan Chernoff, braving the crowds, thanks so much.
Well, the CDC counted three global flu outbreaks or pandemics in the 20th Century. In 1968's Hong Kong flu outbreak, 1957's Asian flu outbreak and the worst, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than a half million people in the United States and as many as 50 million people worldwide.
CNN's Aneesh Raman says that health officials are racing the clock ahead of what's predicted to be the next pandemic, bird flu. The World Health Organization now says it's no longer a question of if, but when.
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ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A dramatic warning to the world, the WHO saying bird flu will likely cause the next human influenza pandemic. DR. KLAUS STOHR, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: Even with the best case scenario, the most optimistic scenarios, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency.
There are estimates which would put the number of death in the range of between two to seven million. The number of people affected would go by the billions, because between 25 and 30 percent will fall ill.
RAMAN: Pandemics occur when a completely new flu strain emerges for which humans have no immunity. There's no sense of when this might happen, the WHO saying it could be anywhere from next week to the coming year.
And with a human vaccine not expected until March 2005 at the earliest, urgency is being placed on containment.
DR. BJORN MELGAARD, HEAD OF WHO S.E. ASIA OFFICE: The countries that have the weakest health systems, of course, are in the need of the most support. And clearly, it usually is together the poorest countries have the least resources to invest in health.
RAMAN: The announcement comes ahead of a two-day meeting regional health ministers in Bangkok looking at how to pool efforts and comes just a few months after the first probable instance of human to human transmission emerged. At that time, the catch word was caution.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There is no reason to be panicked.
RAMAN: The case, health officials said, was a result of extreme conditions.
(on camera) The key to all of this is a mutation in the bird flu strain, making it easily transmitted from human to human. While before that was thought to be a worst-case scenario, it now seems to be a legitimate fear.
Aneesh Raman, CNN, Bangkok.
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DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Your privacy, even your identity may not be quite what it used to be. It's a jungle out there in the cyberworld. And all next week on LIVE FROM, we'll explore the risks and what you can do about them.
Do you think you have a right to privacy?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why do we need privacy? That's the question. Like, why do people need privacy?
SIEBERG: Well, not everyone else agrees. At home, online, and in the workplace, we'll show you how to avoid your own identity crisis. Our series starts Monday with a look at spyware. It's probably on your computer. You didn't put it there, but it's following your every move.
We'll see you all next week on LIVE FROM.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
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