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Katrina Cuts In; Iraq Constitution

Aired August 25, 2005 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: An uninvited guest named Katrina could make a soggy mess out of the MTV Music Awards. We're live and tracking the storm.
SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Susan Candiotti, Hollywood Beach, Florida, where the waves are starting to pick up. And some people are boarding up as Katrina inches closer and closer. A live report coming up.

PHILLIPS: And get the straight dope on these French claims about Lance Armstrong and performance-enhancing drugs.

From the CNN Center in Atlanta, I'm Kyra Phillips. This hour of CNN LIVE FROM starts right now.

"Hurricanes are hurricanes," says Florida Governor Jeb Bush. And he certainly should know. And though Katrina isn't one yet, a lot could happen by the time its center hits the southeast coast of Florida, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. Nobody knows for sure, really.

We do know that Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties are taking the usual precautions. Though the primary danger seems to be flooding, not winds.

Barrier islands and other low-lying spots are evacuating, and that entails the additional pain of filling up at the gas pump. And you know it's serious if MTV pulls the plug on its South Beach extravaganza leading up to Sunday's video music awards in Miami.

Sorry, Moonman. The VMA show itself will go on, as will CNN's complex cantankerous coverage of Katrina.

Here's CNN's meteorologist, Jacqui Jeras -- Jacqui.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hey, Kyra. Yes, the VMA should be fine, actually. All of this is going to be over and done with for south Florida by Sunday. However, Florida Panhandle, going to be keeping a close eye on it as we head throughout the rest of the weekend.

The biggest problem is that this is such a slow-moving storm. It's only moving to the west at six miles per hour. In fact, forecasters -- forecasts have it slowing down even more as it gets closer to the shore line. And the more it slows, that means the more time it has to strengthen. And, of course, certainly not something we want to see, if that could happen. Right now, it looks like our best estimate is that it could be making landfall as early as this evening. It's probably going to take a good 24 hours for it to cross the Florida peninsula. And as it's moving so slowly, and it's going to take so long, that means a lot of flooding.

The rain is going to be persistent. We are going to see a lot of standing water. You want to be very, very careful because of that. In fact, we're talking maybe six to 12 inches. Locally, heavier amounts. Up to 20 a possibility here with Katrina.

There you can see that still the forecast has it strengthening into a hurricane, into a Category 1. Right now the winds are around 60 miles per hour. It has to be 74 for it to become a hurricane.

Our radar picture showing you that nice spin here, and showing you the size of the tropical storm. It's getting larger. You can see some of these outer bands extending all the way into parts of the Deep South.

I do want to take you on a quick little tour here and show you where some of the worst of the weather is. Here's the center of circulation, and some of the worst thunderstorms and the gusts are just on the south side of it right now. But you can see, they are getting very close to Miami. And that's when you can expect to see those hurricane-force winds gusts begin to move through with that.

Right now, some slightly heavier rain is starting to push into Hollywood, Florida. And that is the location of our own Susan Candiotti. And she is right on the corner of Michigan Street and North Surf Drive.

Susan, how is it?

CANDIOTTI: Hi, Michigan. Hi -- I said "Michigan," can you believe that? Hi, Jacqui.

Yes, this is probably the strongest squall that we've had so far this day as the winds are picking up a little bit. But again, not very strong. Not very bad at this hour.

Over my shoulder you see some of those famous high-rise condos that you see along south Florida's coast. About 15,000 people or so live here live round. In Hollywood, Florida, specifically.

They would be part of the voluntary evacuation. Anyone living in low-lying areas here on the water front and people who live in mobile homes have been advised to move inland. But again, that is voluntary, not mandatory.

And as you go is up and down the coast, and inland as well, you do see some people boarding up their homes, making last-minute storm preparations as Katrina gets closer to shore, because if indeed it becomes that Category 1 hurricane, there could be some damage from high winds. Certainly flooding is expected. And sandbags are being handed out in some municipalities free of charge for people to pick up. Some of them they bagged themselves to shore up their homes, their businesses and the like.

And we are also here on the beach seeing a lot of people, as you oftentimes do, here on the ocean front. Seeing people go and go into the water. They probably shouldn't. But they always do.

Joining us now from Hollywood Fire Rescue is Captain Vince Canosa.

What do you tell people? Can you ever keep them out of the water?

CAPT. VINCE CANOSA, HOLLYWOOD, FLORIDA, FIRE RESCUE: Well, we can keep them out of water when there's a hurricane declared. And then we have a mandatory evacuation.

CANDIOTTI: Right, but in a situation like this, you just have to keep an eye on them?

CANOSA: Right, exactly. We have some strong -- strong waves, strong currents. There were a lot of surfers out. So we just have to keep an eye on them.

CANDIOTTI: Are you -- are you surprised that you don't have any riptides right now?

CANOSA: Not surprised. Normally the riptides occur during a strong east wind. And right now we are looking at a north-northwest. So unless the winds change, you know, right now we're just going to have strong north to south currents.

CANDIOTTI: And what will it take, do you think, before you shut down the ocean front and get everyone out of the water? How strong will the winds have to be?

CANOSA: Thirty-five to 40 miles an hour, and then we leave.

CANDIOTTI: Right.

CANOSA: And then we'll have HPD help us out.

CANDIOTTI: Do you have any idea how long you'll be out here today?

CANOSA: Probably all day.

CANDIOTTI: All right.

CANOSA: Yes.

CANDIOTTI: Well, it is a busy day for you here on the beach, and also in Miami Beach, south of here.

Remember, that's the site of those Video Music Awards sponsored by MTV. Big party, big broadcasters on Sunday. However, all of the other parties being held all weekend long. And because of the approaching storm, they took down the famous Moonman, a huge blowup of the famous mascot, if you will, of MTV, going back 20 years, on top of one of the roofs or one of the hotels where they are sponsoring some of their affairs.

Took that down to protect it. A sign of the times, I guess you could say, Jacqui.

Back to you.

JERAS: Thanks very much. Susan Candiotti in Hollywood, Florida.

And as for those VMAs, as you said, things aren't looking too good today. You worry about all those people who are going to be outside, the pre-partiers (ph). Of course the VMAs are on Sunday evening. So it's going to be tomorrow and the next day.

And with standing water, just don't go walk out into it. Just don't go drive into it. And today and tonight certainly not a good night to go in.

And there's those winds. Dave Hennen plotting some of those for us right now. Beverly Beach around 15 miles per hour. So we'll watch those to pick up as it moves on in -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, Jacqui. We'll keep checking in with you and Susan. Thanks so much.

We're going to get the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Also, itself, and Katrina's line of fire, at the bottom of this hour on LIVE FROM.

Well, we're looking for a few good citizen journalists. If you live in an area impacted by Tropical Storm Katrina, e-mail us your photos. You can do that by logging on to CNN.com/stories. Please include your name, location and your phone number.

Hopes for an ethnic consensus in Iraq got considerably dimmer today. A proposed constitution drafted by Shiites and Kurds will apparently go to the Iraqi voters without the approval of Sunni leaders.

CNN's Aneesh Raman joins us now from Baghdad -- Aneesh.

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kyra, good afternoon.

The stage is now set for a fierce public debate over federalism and whether it should be part of the new Iraq. The government says in just under two hours this country will have an official draft constitution. That, despite the fact that the National Assembly did not convene today.

The government says a vote is not needed. Essentially, just consensus among the two main political blocs, the Kurds and the Shia. But a rubberstamp vote could come on this document when they convene again, which could come as early as Sunday.

Now, all along, the Shia-Kurd coalition had been actively trying to bring on board the Sunnis for this document. The Sunnis, of course, wanted no mention of federalism, the power of regional governments in this constitution. They wanted that issue sidelined until a new government came into power at the end of the year.

And they have said that they will work to have the Sunni population reject this draft constitution and the referendum to come by mid October. They have the votes to do that, but now the Shia-Kurd coalition will actively try to engage the Sunni population, not just the Sunni negotiators to convince enough of them that federalism is essential to the new Iraq.

And so in terms of political benchmarks, the next one to keep in mind is that referendum. If the constitution passes, this government goes forward for a permanent government to come into power by the end of the year. But Kyra, if it fails, this entire process starts over. A new National Assembly is voted in that will again try to draft a constitution that passes the vote of the people. -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Aneesh Raman. We'll follow up continually.

Well, many U.S. soldiers wounded in Iraq are being treated at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington. And today, the Federal Base Closing Commission voted to shut down what's considered the crown jewel of our military hospitals.

The commission says that the care at Reed is first rate, but the century-old facility is showing its age. Under the Pentagon's plan, most of the staff and services would move to the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. The decision, however, isn't final. President Bush can ask for changes and Congress could end up rejecting the plan.

The Base Closing Commission also is considering the fate of several Air Force bases that are on the Pentagon's chopping block. One of the major ones is Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota. It's the state's second-largest employer and home to the B-1 bomber fleet. Like other bases that may get the axe, this one carries with it political ramifications.

South Dakota's Republican Senator John Thune was on hand for today's base closing hearing, along with the test -- or the rest, rather, of the state's congressional delegation. Thune, a first-year senator, argued during last year's campaign that he would be in better position to save Ellsworth, not his Democratic opponent, then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.

Well, a short while ago, Thune spoke about the possible closing of the base with CNN Congressional Correspondent Ed Henry.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN THUNE (R), SOUTH DAKOTA: You know, I'm too Norwegian to be optimistic. But I'm hopeful. I think that we have made very effective arguments. I think our arguments have been compelling. I believe that the BRAC Commission is fully aware of the things that we think they need to know about in order to make an informed decision on this.

I think they are very well qualified, they're intent on doing the right thing. And I think that when they have evaluated and weighed all the information, all the data, all the facts with respect to our Air Force base, they'll come to the conclusion that, not only does South Dakota need Ellsworth Air Force Base, but that America needs Ellsworth Air Force Base as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: It's unclear how many Air Force bases -- or how many Air Force base proposals the commission will take up today. Any leftover will be considered tomorrow.

Well, LIVE FROM's keeping an eye on Katrina all afternoon. We're going to check in with the experts at the National Hurricane Center straight ahead just to keep you posted on that storm.

Also coming up, news of another fatal shark attack has us reaching for a fact check on your odds of being the next victim.

And there's this...

RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Ryan Chilcote. And ahead on LIVE FROM, I'll have an exclusive report from Darfur, Sudan, on the plight of the people of Darfur.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: The U.N.'s high commissioner for refugees visited a huge camp in Sudan's troubled Darfur region today. Antonio Guterres is on a 10-day tour of the region where ethnic warfare has forced millions of people to leave their homes and contributed to at least 180,000 deaths.

CNN's Ryan Chilcote is accompanying him, and I spoke with Ryan earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Ryan, set the scene for us there at this camp where you are right now.

CHILCOTE: Sure thing, Kyra.

We are at the Riyadh camp for IDPs, or internally displaced people. These are effectively refugees in their own native country of Sudan in the Darfur region. There are about 15,000 of them here. We're going to try and show you some of them and a little bit of the camp.

There was a larger crowd here. However, they were basically shooed away by men a short while ago.

There are about 15,000, as I said, and they have been here for about two years, living in straw huts. And I think you might be able to see them. Basically, temporary shelters covered with some of the U.N. covering that they've given them to protect them from the rain.

Unfortunately, it is still too dangerous in Darfur for most of these people to return home. Of course, what they were fleeing are Arab militiamen who came to this area, many people say, armed by the government of Sudan, that was trying to put down a rebel movement here.

Those Arab nomads basically launched a terror campaign, a scorched earth campaign, and sent about two million people fleeing from their homes. So even though there's 15,000 people in this camp, this is really just a tiny fraction of the number of refugees in here. In addition, of course, all the refugees, more than 180,000 people, were killed in those attacks in 2003 and 2004 -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: And Ryan, put into perspective for us the history in why that's happening. I'm reading now that security is more of a concern than food. Why is it that the militia is taking this stance?

And I also want you to address the issue of women and the security around women. And the rapes that are taking place on a regular basis.

CHILCOTE: That's right. As far as the food is concerned, there is ample food. No one is starving in this camp, although there are many malnourished people here, including many malnourished children, quite sadly.

But the U.N. is here, there are a lot of aid organizations here in this camp. And life in the camp is more or less safe. The problem is, is when these people begin to venture outside of the camp.

Now, because of the violence, because of the fact that some of these Arab nomads are still in this area, the men don't really venture outside of the camp at all. The women, however, do.

And if you can see over my shoulder here, that green hillside is actually just outside of this camp. They have to go outside the camp over that hillside. And that is where they look for firewood to fuel their stoves.

It can take them anywhere from one hour to four hours to find that firewood. And it is then that they are vulnerable to violence. And often, it is sexual violence.

In fact, when we got here yesterday, the very first woman I spoke with told me that she had been raped. She had been raped about two months ago, and she said she still goes out.

She had been attacked about a week ago, but was able to get away. Because they have no other choice. They still have to get the firewood to fuel their stoves. That's a really serious problem here. In fact, the French aid organization Doctors Without Borders issued a report earlier this year that in just a four-and-a-half month period, they treated more than 500 women, rape victims in the Darfur region -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: So Ryan, why aren't the men sent out, then?

CHILCOTE: Well, the men -- traditions. There's two parts to that.

I think the men feel that if they would -- they were to go out, they would be killed, because they would be seen as possible threats to the Arab nomads in this region. That's one thing.

The second thing is that, traditionally, it is the women who go out to gather small sticks and -- for the fire, for the stove here. Men traditionally would focus on getting the larger logs. But they are not going out. So these women have to go out, quite frankly, a lot more frequently to get this firewood.

You know, it's really interesting. The U.N. has this new program to try and cut down on the amount of time the women spend outside of the camp gathering the firewood.

They are giving the women fuel-efficient stoves. They're about twice as efficient as the stoves they have now. And with these new stoves, they'll have to spend about half the time they do now going outside the camp.

But of course, they are still going to be outside the camp. Just half as often. So they are still going to be vulnerable to the violence in this area -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Now Ryan, you've met with the high commissioner. He is there. Tell me what he is hoping to do. And when will these refugees be able to go back to their homes, if their homes still, indeed, exist?

CHILCOTE: That's right. Well, the high commissioner would like to see these refugees return as quickly as possible.

Like I said, there's about two million of them. As soon as the rainy season ends here, in about a few months, the high commissioner would like to begin the repatriation of all the of the refugees here. But really, honestly, the conditions in terms of security for a mass return to their home don't exist yet.

The hope is that, according to the Sudanese government and the rebel groups, they may be ready for a peace agreement. If the rebels and the Sudanese government reach a peace deal, that would create the security necessary, perhaps, for these people to return to their homes.

And that's one of the things that the high commissioner is trying to do during this visit. He's, one, trying put pressure on the Sudanese government and the rebel groups in the Darfur region to reach a peace deal. And at the same time, he's trying to address the international community and encouraging the international community to put the pressure on the parties involved in this conflict. And also to refocus their attention on Darfur.

You know, to a large extent, this is a really forgotten part of the world. Everyone was paying attention to the conflict in Darfur about a year and a half ago. But since, it's really been overshadowed by some other places.

So the high commissioner says the world needs to put the pressure on the parties involved in this conflict. And it also needs to go into their wallets to try and fund the repatriation, the return of these refugees to their homes.

It's going to be a massive project. Just imagine trying to move two million people back to their native villages. There's no infrastructure. Everything's going to have to be rebuilt -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Well, Ryan, as you look at the faces of all those children that are surrounded around you -- I know they love being around you -- you just can't forget this story from what you're telling us, and when you see those children. Ryan Chilcote, thank you so much.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: And straight ahead, keeping up with Katrina. The latest news from the National Hurricane Center straight ahead. Find out why small stores almost pick up steam just off the coast of Florida's biggest city.

Also ahead, why are accusations about performance-enhancing drugs still swirling around biking legend Lance Armstrong? Could it just be some French sour grapes? We're going to check it out.

ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN SR. CORRESPONDENT: I'm Allan Chernoff at the New York Stock Exchange. Coming up, Hawaii says it's had enough of high gas prices.

And GM is extending popular discounts.

I'll have those stories coming up next on LIVE FROM. Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: So just how likely are you to be attacked by a shark? You might be surprised. Here's a look at the facts.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): There were only 61 unprovoked shark attacks worldwide in 2004. Seven of those were fatal.

Shark attacks have been on the rise for the last 100 years. Four hundred and eighty-one attacks were reported in the 1990s, nearly twice as many as in the '60s.

It's not because of more sharks. In fact, the world shark population is declining because of over-fishing and loss of habitat. But the number of shark attacks is actually directly related to the amount of time people spend at the beach. And Americans are spending more time at the beach every year.

Are you still worried about finding yourself nose to nose with jaws? Well, maybe this will help to think about this: your odds of being attacked by a shark in the U.S. are roughly one in 10 million. You're more likely to be struck by lightning or die from falling out of bed.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Prices at the pump have fallen for their third day in a row, but motorists aren't exactly cheering.

Allan Chernoff with more now from the New York Stock Exchange.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

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