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Hezbollah Leader Declares 'Open War'; Lebanese Prime Minister Speaks Out; Oil Prices Continue to Climb; Rob Sobhani Interview; Evacuating Americans From Lebanon Challenging; Rudy Garcia-Tolson An Amazing Athlete
Aired July 14, 2006 - 15:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: It's the top of the hour, and we are talking about the crisis in the Middle East.
Here's a quick look at what we know right now. Israel's attacks on southern Beirut now include the neighborhood, the headquarters, the residence of Hezbollah's leader. The group says that Hassan Nasrallah, however, and his family are safe.
A short time later, Hezbollah television released an audio speech by Nasrallah, in which he declared open war with Israel. It's not clear whether the speech was live or taped.
For its part, Hezbollah has launched a string of rocket attacked against Israel today. At least six towns in northern Israel have been hit, as apparently has -- well, as apparently as an Israeli warship, though damage to that ship is said to be minor.
CNN's John Vause is in Nahariya, Israel, with the latest on what has taken place in that resort town -- John.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Kyra.
According to the Israeli military, more than 90 Katyusha have been fired today by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, more than 300 in the past 48 houses.
The civilian death toll now stands at four. The military says a woman and her 4-year-old grandson was killed when their home took a direct hit in the small village of Mount Meron. There are also other casualties reported as well. At least six Israeli communities have come under fire in the past few hours, including, here in Nahariya, two Katyusha rockets fell, the second time this town has been hit by those rockets.
In that first attack, at least 30 people were wounded. The Katyushas have also been coming down on the town of Safed. There, about a dozen people have been hurt as well.
Israelis living within 14 miles of the Lebanese border have been told to seek shelter in bomb shelters, and also in safe rooms. And those who are about 30 miles away from the border have been told to stay off the streets, to go home, and, once there, stay away from doorways, and also to keep clear of windows. And that warning applies to the residents, the 300,000 people who live in the major port city of Haifa -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, John Vause, thank you so much, with the update.
Well, strong criticism for Israel from the Catholic Church. The Vatican's secretary of state said that the Holy See -- quote -- "deplores the attack on Lebanon, a free and sovereign nation" -- unquote.
So much violence, so much danger, so much animosity, and so little space -- the Middle East crisis that has commandeered the world's attention is playing out on a tiny silver of land -- or sliver, rather, of land with centuries of experience in war.
CNN's Tom Foreman maps it out for us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You simply have to bear in mind what a small area we are talking about right now -- the entire area of Israel and Lebanon together, only about the size of the state of Maryland, only about 80 miles between two of the major cities we are involved with here -- the border, 40 miles. And there's been all sorts of activity around it.
Hezbollah operates in the southern part of Lebanon. And, effectively, Israel is trying to set up a ring of fire around them. There's a blockade aid out in the Mediterranean Sea. They attacked the airport on the northern end, knocking out three runways.
Over here, they knocked out a fuel station by bombing that, making it very difficult for them to get supplies in. And, most recently, later on today, they hit the road to Damascus, a major road there. And they are bombing all in this area where Hezbollah calls home, trying to put them into a real bind.
It's been the other way as well though. Bombs have been launched into Israel, into Nahariya, Safed, and, importantly, all the way down to Haifa. That's a big issue, because Haifa has been pretty much off- limits and considered too far away. That's why there's been so much concern.
Why does this matter to Americans? It's very simple: because Israel is a long-time ally of America. And a big ally of Hezbollah is Iran. There's already tension with this nation. And, as this goes on, there's a greater chance of bringing greater powers into a greater conflict.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Let's get straight to Tony Harris now, working a developing story for us in the newsroom -- Tony.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: OK, Kyra, just want to give you a -- a reset on how we are working this story here in the newsroom. We talk a lot about the global resources at our disposal here at CNN to help us make sense of a story like this, even as it is unfolding. And here's how it works in the case of a story like this.
Our international desk that you see right behind me now, just staffed with journalists, researchers, regional experts, interpreters, analysts, monitoring nine different Middle East channels right now, including state-run Iranian television, Hezbollah television.
Now, as you mentioned at the top here, the headquarters of Hezbollah was targeted by Israeli artillery today. And the fate of Hezbollah's leader was unknown for a while and is still not altogether clear.
What we do know is that, a short time ago, Hassan Nasrallah spoke to Hezbollah television. And, among other things, he said this -- quoting now -- "You want war, an open war? It will be open war. You want your government to change the rule of a game? Then this game will change. Now you know who you are fighting with."
And then there was this, Nasrallah taunting the Israeli government -- "For the Zionists, for the people of the Zionist entity, in this hour, I tell them you will discover soon that you will find out how much your new leadership and your government stupid, and does not know how to evaluate the issues, and has no experience at this level" -- the words of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on the phone or on tape from some undisclosed location.
Now, once again, Kyra, the international desk hard at work, following the latest developments in this story for us.
PHILLIPS: And, Tony, the desk, we can see, obviously, everybody working the phones, but also monitoring a number of networks, I mean, Hezbollah television, which is not allowed to air here in the United States.
HARRIS: That's right.
PHILLIPS: It's been banned. But we have also been monitoring Lebanese...
HARRIS: Al-Arabiya...
PHILLIPS: ... broadcasting.
HARRIS: ... Al-Jazeera.
PHILLIPS: Exactly.
HARRIS: Sure.
You -- nine different channels -- among them, as you mentioned, Hezbollah television, as -- which you're right to say -- it is the fact -- is banned in the United States. We're also monitoring state- run Iranian television for developments there, as well as Al-Arabiya, Al-Jazeera. So, what we are able to do is, in addition to bringing you the latest pictures, the newest pictures, we are also able to bring you the reporting that is going on in the Arab world, and bring it some kind of -- of context as well, as you see Octavia Nasr there...
(CROSSTALK)
HARRIS: ... our senior Arab affairs editor.
(LAUGHTER)
PHILLIPS: We count on her on a daily basis...
HARRIS: We sure do.
PHILLIPS: ... to translate everything for us in Arabic.
All right, thanks so much, Tony. We will keep...
HARRIS: Sure thing.
PHILLIPS: ... checking in with you and, of course, everybody there at the international desk.
Meanwhile, Lebanon wants a cease-fire. That is the part of the Lebanese government that has no control over militant group fighting Israel. Lebanon's prime minister spoke by phone today with President Bush, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and, exclusively, with our Nic Robertson.
Nic has actually had a chance to sit down with him. He joins us live from Beirut.
Nic, what do you think? What stood out as the most prominent thing that the prime minister said to you?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think it's very striking, Kyra, that what the prime minister is trying to do, he's trying to keep his government united.
When I asked him if he condemned Hezbollah's actions, he said no, that they had agreed on a term of disavow them. When I really pushed him and drilled down in the interview, he did concede -- or implied, at least -- that, tactically, Hezbollah had made a mistake in -- in crossing the border and kidnapping and killing other Israeli soldiers.
He also implied, when I pushed him again if he believed Syria, and perhaps Iran, were behind, motivating Hezbollah to do this at this time, because there would seem to be no tactical reason why they would want to do it for Lebanon at this time, he again implied that he thought perhaps there was some influence there.
But I think it's very, very striking, if you look at the context of what's happened here in about the last four or five hours. After I interviewed the prime minister, we went down to some of the areas in southern Beirut that have been bombed. We were talking to people in those areas, these Hezbollah stronghold areas, young Shias there, all saying that they would unite and fight against Israel. The prime minister, when I was talking to him, only an hour before, in the -- in the parliament building, was saying that this was a time when the country could address the bigger problems of Israel and the Palestinians, going back to 1948, that he thought that this was an opportunity to deal with those issues.
I put it to him that that the situation now for Lebanon was so dire and complex, that it would be a long time before they could resolve Lebanon's problems and get on to these bigger issues. And he did concede that would be the case. But what is striking, he's trying to keep his government together.
Just across the town, the young Shias in the Hezbollah areas of Beirut are saying they want to unite and go and fight the Israelis. And while we were there talking to them, Israeli bombs came down, or shells came down. These were the shells that were targeting the Hezbollah leadership's headquarters, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah's headquarters.
That's -- after that, Nasrallah appeared on television, recorded or live on an audio address. There was celebratory gunfire all over Beirut after his address, indicating the kind of strength of position he has.
And, at the end of his speech, he indicated that, if people wanted to look out and see the Israeli gunboats that had been shelling Beirut earlier in the day, that they could see one targeted and burning. Well, 10 minutes later, Israeli authorities confirmed that one of their gun -- one of their boat ships off the coast of Beirut had been slightly hit in an attack.
The celebratory gunfire that was heard over Beirut when Sheikh Nasrallah was on television in really in complete contrast to what I was hearing from the prime minister. He was very much talking about trying to find a comprehensive peace solution. He was very much talking about trying to -- he was very much talking about trying to bring everyone together to find a peaceful solution, and, at the same time, not criticize Hezbollah, not criticize them, because it appears the government, at this time, is not strong enough to do that.
But he did criticize Israel, saying that their response to everything that was going on was disproportionate.
PHILLIPS: All right, Nic, I want to go to two parts of that exclusive interview that you had with the prime minister.
And that is, first of all, concerning what to do with Hezbollah, and what is Lebanon's role, the Lebanese government's role. I know you asked the prime minister about this.
Let's take a listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FUAD SINIORA, PRIME MINISTER OF LEBANON: Lebanon should not really be dealt this way.
Actually, the retaliation of Israel against the abduction of the two -- of the two soldiers in the -- across the Blue Line is in no way proportionate. It is disproportionate to what has been done.
And this is not the way how to deal with things.
So, this is the way I think the situation is very bad. Lebanon has been penalized for something that it has already expressed its opinion, and the Lebanese government has made it very clear that it had no information about this operation, and it takes no responsibility, and, in fact, it is disavowing what has been made in this respect.
The region, to start with, is still suffering from the problem that has erupted since 1948, and it's taking different forms. And, still, the problem is still going on.
The problem is the Palestinian-Israeli question. And this has to be resolved. And this is one of the topics that I discussed yesterday with the secretary-general and with President Bush this morning.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: So, Nic, there's a lot of confusion back here in the United States, wondering, why isn't the prime minister and the Lebanese parliament doing something about Hezbollah and its actions? I had talked with a former adviser to Lebanon. And he said, look, they are not strong enough. They can't do it. Hezbollah is more powerful and more of a threat.
ROBERTSON: Well, the prime minister obviously didn't feel in a position that -- that he could say that.
What he (INAUDIBLE) when I pushed him, why doesn't Lebanon do more to rein in Hezbollah, why doesn't your government do it, he put -- tried to put the shoe on the other foot, if you will.
He said, OK, let's step back and look at the bigger problem. And he implied here that the bigger problem is Israel. Let's fix the Israeli-Palestinian problem, is what he was saying.
That was a defense to: Why don't you fix the Hezbollah problem?
It is an indication, clearly, that he does not feel strong enough, within the government, to lay the law down to Hezbollah. The leadership of Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, earlier this year said that anyone that tries to disarm Hezbollah will face attack.
Certainly, analysts who have been watching that over the last few months -- and I believe that he -- he said it in April, said that this statement really stood out, and people should take note of it. And that is, essentially, the position that Hezbollah is in at the moment, that they refuse to be disarmed, and this government and the prime minister are not able to do it, and try and divert attention by saying, OK, let's fix the Israeli problem. PHILLIPS: Nic Robertson, he got the exclusive with the prime minister there in Lebanon. And you will see the interview throughout the day.
Great job, Nic. Thanks so much.
Israel's attentions are on Lebanon, but there are other countries accused of supporting Hezbollah, two in particular. That's straight ahead on LIVE FROM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: President Bush is watching the Middle East from Saint Petersburg, Russia, where he's preparing for the G8 Summit. The president and Mrs. Bush had dinner with President and Mrs. Vladimir Putin at the 18th century palace where the Group of Eight convenes tomorrow.
CNN White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux reports on the president's day.
Hey, Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, hey, Kyra.
Of course, President Bush here in Saint Petersburg, two days before the opening of the G8 Summit -- that's because the White House says he wants to have frank and private conversations with his old friend Russian President Vladimir Putin -- and, of course, the reported tension between the two over North Korea, Iran, human rights, all threaten to overshadow the G8 agenda.
But what is really coming into sharp focus is the Middle East crisis. Before Air Force One even touched down, President Bush was on the phone, reaching out to key allies, calling the leaders of Egypt and Jordan to thank them for their role in helping de-escalate this crisis.
He also called Lebanon's prime minister, Siniora, to reassure him that his administration is pressuring Israel really to show some sort of restraint here, to protect the innocent in going after their strikes on Hezbollah, and also to respect the authority of Siniora's government.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My biggest concern is whether or not actions taken will weaken the Siniora government.
I -- the democracy in Lebanon is an important part of laying a -- you know, a foundation for peace in that region. We have worked really hard to get Syria out of Lebanon.
U.N. Resolution 1559, and its follow-up, Resolution 1680, were manifestations of the work of the international community to get Syria out of Lebanon.
We have always felt that a democracy in Lebanon is important for the Lebanese people and it's important for the region. So, the concern is that any activities by Israel to protect herself will weaken that government, and we have made that -- or topple that government -- and we have made it clear. We have -- in our discussions.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: But, Kyra, also, what White House officials are making clear is that the president did not call on Israel, the administration not calling on Israel to stop these attacks -- White House Press Secretary Tony Snow saying that that is really a call that the Israeli military must make.
In the meantime, of course, President Bush continues to do his diplomatic dance here. He met with some democracy advocates to send a clear message to Putin that he is on their sides when it comes to reforming Putin's regime.
He also, of course, in a lighter moment, looked -- or at least took a spin, took a look at Putin's first car from 1972, both of them sharing a light moment before dinner, and then, of course, getting down to business tomorrow -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, possibly a little cruise.
(LAUGHTER)
PHILLIPS: Suzanne Malveaux, thanks so much.
Well, one is a lumbering behemoth. The other is smaller, faster, and hotter. But now California's Sawtooth and Millard complex wildfires are on the verge of merging. It's feared that the Sawtooth fire alone could destroy 100,000 acre. That's roughly five times the size of Manhattan.
Our Keith Oppenheim is in Morongo Valley on what is left of it with an update on this perfect firestorm -- Keith.
KEITH OPPENHEIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Kyra.
It's a hot day in Southern California, good conditions for a fire to be spreading. It's a little bit windy here, too. And there's a bit of an aerial assault going on here in Morongo Valley, on the edge of the Sawtooth complex fire.
But, as you said, that fire and a smaller fire are on the verge of coming together. The greatest concern is that both fires could move north and damage more homes.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
OPPENHEIM (voice-over): The Sawtooth Complex fire is spreading, along with fears it could merge with the Millard Complex fire, burning in the San Bernardino National Forest. Fire officials say, if that happens, the combined blaze could consume as much as 100,000 acres.
RICK GRIGGS, PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER, CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY: We're watching both fires very closely and keeping an eye on -- on their -- their proximity to each other.
OPPENHEIM: In San Bernardino County, about 100 miles east of Los Angeles, Governor Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency. Mandatory evacuations are ordered in half-a-dozen communities. Thousands of homes are in danger.
GRIGGS: We do understand that it's an inconvenience to be out of your home, but it is for your own safety. And we will do our best to get you back into your homes as soon as we can.
OPPENHEIM: Already, dozens of structures have been destroyed. In Morongo Valley, Pat Miller had thanks for firefighters who protected her property and neighbors, who were lifesavers.
PAT MILLER, FIRE EVACUEE: There was fire on both sides of our dirt road. I was at work. Our neighbors got my husband out, because I couldn't get in.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She was trying to get through. They wouldn't let her in.
MILLER: It was like driving into hell.
OPPENHEIM: The Sawtooth fire is about 20 percent contained, but it's moving north. The concern is, it could hit the resort area of Big Bear. One official warned, the fire would turn 100-foot-tall trees there into torches.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OPPENHEIM: Now, in order to prevent that kind of thing from happening, you have got 2,700 firefighters out here, Kyra.
And what they are really trying to do is to create a containment line along the northern edge of this fire, to prevent the fire from going north. If they are successful, then, the end of the story is, it was a bad fire, but it was contained. If they're not, and Mother Nature doesn't cooperate -- then, we are going to see, potentially, a lot more damage -- back to you.
PHILLIPS: All right, we will keep talking with you, Keith. Thank you.
And the crisis in the Middle East deepens as well. Oil prices rise. What does that mean for the pump?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think you are going to see a $100 price for a barrel for oil at some point. And that will translate into a $4 gallon for gasoline.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Feeling the falling out -- or feeling the fallout, rather, coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Israelis and Lebanese are doing the fighting, but many in Israel and Washington believe two other Mideast nations are calling the shots.
CNN national security correspondent David Ensor explains.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As Israel bombed Beirut airport and Lebanese bridges, U.S. and Israeli officials charged that Iran and Syria are partially responsible for the rocket attacks and the seizures of Israeli soldiers.
Israel moved forces into the Lebanese border area. President Bush issued a warning to Syria.
BUSH: Syria needs to be held to account. Syria is housing the militant wing of Hamas. Hezbollah has got an active presence in Syria.
SAMI KHIYAMI, SYRIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED KINGDOM: You know, we support any people who is under occupation and who is seeking to recapture its -- its occupied land.
ENSOR: U.S. intelligence officials say, weapons for Hezbollah from Iran transit through Syria. Some analysts argue that Iran, more than Syria, may be behind the actions of both Hamas and Hezbollah.
MARTIN INDYK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Iran is behind Hezbollah and Hamas. And Iran, it's, at the moment, the focus of the -- the G8 attention, as we go to the summit in Russia, because of its nuclear program. So, it's very convenient for Iran to derail that process by having all of us focus on what is happening in Lebanon.
ENSOR: But other analysts said Hamas and Hezbollah may be acting against Israel for their own reasons.
SHIBLEY TELHAMI, ANWAR SADAT PROFESSOR FOR PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND: While there's influence coming from the outside, there is no indication, really, that this is a direct consequence. That is, the attack on -- on the Israeli military was a direct consequence of some instructions coming from Iran.
ENSOR (on camera): Whether it is Iran, Syria, or Hamas and Hezbollah making their own decisions, there is deep concern in Washington that the situation could spiral out of control, a distraction, deliberate or not, from the issue of Iran's nuclear program, which was expected to dominate the G8 Summit in Saint Petersburg this weekend. David Ensor, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Well, let's talk more about Iran and its influence on Hezbollah and this ongoing battle in the Middle East.
Mideast analyst Rob Sobhani has been to these countries and observed the effects of Iran's support for Hezbollah. He joins me from Washington.
Rob, what's interesting, you said, first of all, there's controversy as to what Hezbollah means. We keep saying it means Party of God, but there are those that would differ with that.
ROB SOBHANI, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Yes.
Kyra, the moderates within the Shia world of theology would argue that it's blasphemous even to call about God having a party, that there is only one God. And this, once again, goes back to the history of Hezbollah in 1982. It's a creation of the government of Iran. The government of Iran funded Hezbollah, created Hezbollah, and continues, to this day, to be the lifeline of Hezbollah.
PHILLIPS: And, as soon as we saw the Beirut airport being bombed and certain transportation ways being taken out by the Israeli defense forces, did that just confirm to you that, well, the first thing they are wanting to do is cut off this relationship between Hezbollah and Iran and the transfer of weapons and support?
SOBHANI: Well, there's no doubt that the government of Israel feels very strongly that there is a direct link between Hezbollah and the government of Iran.
The government of Iran funds Hezbollah, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars. And many of those dollars find their way, through weapons and other arms, into Syria, and, then, eventually into Lebanon, for use against Israel.
PHILLIPS: So, who needs to hold Iran accountable?
SOBHANI: Well, I think the international community, the Europeans, the United States.
Kyra, I think the problem starts in Tehran with the Iranian government. And it could end with the Iranian government. And that is the biggest challenge of the United States, and it's the biggest opportunity for the United States, because, ironically, while the government of Iran sends money to Hezbollah, the people of Iran are saying: Why? Why are you sending money to Hezbollah? Why aren't we having better roads, better infrastructure?
Iran has had earthquakes, where Iranians are living in poor conditions, and, yet, the money that their government is getting from these high oil revenues are going to Hezbollah. And, so, there is a disconnect between the people of Iran and the government of Iran. And this is what Europe and the United States needs to take advantage of.
PHILLIPS: So, is the Iran government saying, OK, we are going to continue to support Hezbollah? Hezbollah is fighting the Lebanese government. It is fighting Israel. And, ultimately, Iran wants to get into it with Israel and say: Look, we are the power here, not you.
Is that what it is coming down to, is a power struggle between Iran and Israel?
SOBHANI: Absolutely.
Mr. Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, are children of the era when they snubbed their nose against Israel, against the United States.
Keep in mind, Hezbollah was responsible for the bombing of the Marine barracks. They feel they, they Iranian leadership, feel that they can strike at Israel and get away with it. And also as some of your other analysts have suggested, this is another way for the government of Iran to divert attention away from its nuclear ambitions, and so the Hezbollah card plays two ways, hitting Israel and also taking care of a nuclear issue that Iran wants to go away.
PHILLIPS: So is Iran so involved with the support of Hezbollah, say Iran cut off Hezbollah. I mean, I'm just throwing it out there. Would Hezbollah die out?
SOBHANI: Kyra, if tomorrow there was a secular pro-Western government in Tehran, not only Hezbollah but Islamic jihad, al Qaeda to a certain extent, Hamas, would no longer have financial means to strike terror into the hearts of innocent people.
PHILLIPS: Really? You're that confident that that's what it would take? So I guess that's going to lead me to my next question, Rob, about American policy with Iran.
SOBHANI: Well this is where I think U.S. diplomacy should focus on. We should empower the people of Iran to take care of the situation themselves because a secular Iran means a stable Persian Gulf, it means lower oil prices, it means peace between Palestinians and Israelis and it means an end to terrorism. The genie of Islamic fundamentalism came out of the bottle in 1979 in Iran by the late Ayatollah Khamenei. We can put it back into the bottle with a robust U.S. policy of empowering the people of Iran.
PHILLIPS: Rob Sobhani. Interesting perspective. So what's next, are you going to be headed to Iran or any parts of these countries soon because of what's going on?
SOBHANI: Well, probably a visit to the Persian Gulf area to take a look at how this all affects the price of oil and the American consumer.
PHILLIPS: Which is what we're going to be talking about with Ali Velshi. You want to throw out a question to him? Well let's bring Ali in right now. Ali Velshi, are you ready?
ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: I'm right here.
PHILLIPS: OK, we've got you, we've got Rob Sobhani. Rob, I don't know if you can see Ali's $77.03 barrel of oil there, but you were just there doing the analyzing Rob Sobhani. What do you think we should be talking about with regard to how this is affecting oil? Ali has been following this intensely for the past couple of days.
SOBHANI: I mean there is no doubt, Kyra, that the price of oil in the short term is being affected by politics. But in the long run, there are fundamentals such as Chinese consumption, Indian consumption, U.S. consumption. We consume 25 percent of the world's petroleum, crude oil. And so there are fundamental reasons why the price of oil is high, however for now, it's been driven by politics.
PHILLIPS: Ali?
VELSHI: That's exactly right. In fact, what a lot of people are pointing out today, that there's nothing that has happened in the last 12 hours that has affected the supply of oil into the market. There's no less supplies.
All of these fears, these are traders and speculators who are causing these kind of numbers right now. It doesn't mean there aren't absolute real risks that there might be shutdowns in supply of oil. But if that were to happen, it would really cause oil to skyrocket. For the moment, we've still got enough oil available to us. This is trading politics and speculation that's causing these increases.
PHILLIPS: So Rob, of course, we're sitting back saying, OK, what about gasoline? What does it mean for us on a daily basis?
SOBHANI: Well I think the price of gasoline will go up a few cents in the next few months, and as refineries switch their blends. But the good news is that there is ample supply of petroleum in Saudi Arabia, in Iraq.
But the politics is hindering it. Yesterday, just yesterday, Kyra, the Caspian Sea region opened up by a pipeline that is going to deliver over one million barrels of crude oil from the offshore fields of Azerbaijan, a very strong ally of America, to the Mediterranean. This will help with disruptions in the Middle East, so there is ample supply. Politics is hindering it.
PHILLIPS: And Ali, you have been to a number of these platforms. I mean, you've seen firsthand how this all works and how it generates and goes back and forth.
VELSHI: Yes. We have two problems here. One is that you will see the price of oil going up. The Department of Energy just on Tuesday released an average that Americans will pay for gas, $2.88 for a gallon of self-serve unleaded.
We are already way past that. We are seeing -- some analysts saying that we could go up to eight-to-12 cents just in the next week if these kind of prices of oil are sustained. But as you know, Kyra, in the United States, gasoline is a separate problem because we've got a refinery capacity that's limited.
So if anything happens in the Gulf in terms of bad weather, more platforms shutting down or refineries, Americans are going to pay yet more for gas, $3 a gallon for gas the rest of the summer is a given, it could get worse.
PHILLIPS: Is that the worst outcome, Rob Sobhani?
SOBHANI: That could probably be the worst outcome but I suspect that given the politics in the region, we will probably see in California, $4 a gallon, in the Midwest, $3.75 and on the East Coast, somewhere around $3.45 for unleaded.
PHILLIPS: Ali, what do you think, worst outcome?
VELSHI: Yes, I think you're absolutely right. Remember that we are talking about $3 right now as an average across the country. But in California, on the East Coast, out in Hawaii, people are already paying these kinds of figures.
The interesting thing is going to be when we start to see or hear about $100 per barrel for oil or $4 for gasoline, will people change their behavior and start to pull back on the use of petroleum? That remains to be seen. For the moment, yes, you can absolutely expect that that could be a reality before the end of the summer.
PHILLIPS: Rob Sobhani, thanks for talking to us and thanks for talking oil. I appreciate it.
SOBHANI: Thanks a lot.
PHILLIPS: And Ali, we will see you as we hit the closing bell.
VELSHI: See you in about half an hour.
PHILLIPS: OK terrific, thanks, guys.
Well on the verge of a merge. Two major wildfires on a collision course in California. A state of emergency declared. We're on that story straight ahead on LIVE FROM.
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PHILLIPS: You want an open war, you will have open war. The gauntlet thrown down by Hezbollah's leader to Israel. Here's what we know right now. Hassan Nasrallah promises to take the battle to Haifa and beyond. He spoke on a Beirut-based television station adding, "We will not be the only ones who lose children and houses."
Nasrallah's fate was in some question before he spoke. His headquarters in Beirut was struck by an Israeli artillery round, fired from offshore. Still, we don't know whether his comments were live or recorded. And an Israeli warship off the Lebanese coast was damaged, lightly, according to the Israeli military. They say it was hit by a rocket from Lebanon.
Twenty-five thousand Americans living, working, worrying in Lebanon. Now that the Beirut Airport is out of commission, a potential evacuation has gotten a lot more complicated. CNN's senior Pentagon correspondent Jaime McIntyre joins me with lots more on that -- Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, the open warfare between Israel and Hezbollah has essentially trapped some 25,000 Americans in Lebanon. The State Department has now issued, instituted what it calls an authorized departure policy for non- essential embassy personnel. It is urging all Americans to leave what has become a war zone. But with no safe way out, for now, most Americans are on their own.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are working through all the various contingencies that might arise and in support of that, how to look at support for American citizens whether they are in the embassy community or outside the embassy community, when conditions permit should they want to leave if the existing conditions exist in context for the current situation continues.
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MCINTYRE: For now the Americans are being told to sit tight, wait for instructions from the embassy as they wait to see what happens, and essentially, they are also told to make their own personal decisions about personal safety. If they have a safe way out, they should take it.
Meanwhile, contingency planning is underway for possible evacuation for non-essential embassy personnel and perhaps other Americans. One of the options we're told that's under consideration is moving the several ship, multi-ship task force headed by the USS Iwo Jima which is now in the Red Sea, into the Mediterranean, where its helicopters would be available, theoretically, to take some Americans out. Unfortunately, though, that Marine task force is involved in an exercise in Jordan at the moment, and they're not under orders to leave.
Another option would be to run flights from nearby Cyprus where the U.S. might be able to get permission to run some evacuation flights, but again, there are problems with the airport. It's still kind of a long run for helicopters from Cyprus to Lebanon, even though it's probably the closest place nearby.
Right now, it seems like the most prudent option under consideration is, again, for Americans to sit tight, see if the situation improves. The preferred method for evacuating Americans from an area where there is civil strife or a war zone is to hire commercial airliners and bring them in and fly them out.
And we did see a brief cease-fire brokered between Israel and Lebanon today that allowed Lebanon to move some of its commercial airliners out of the airport and also a private plane to take off carrying Lebanon's former prime minister. So it's also possible that in the future, some sort of an agreement could be worked out to bring planes in to take Americans out.
PHILLIPS: All right, Jamie, thanks so much.
Explosion, fires, rubble -- we have been talking about it all. The pictures from the Middle East are disturbing even if you don't have family there. CNN's senior Arab affairs editor, Octavia Nasr, joins me now with a look at how the crisis is being covered in the Middle East and what you can do if family members are at risk.
And I want to talk about the coverage in a minute, but I do want to let our viewers know, you are from Lebanon, you actually have family there. When this all went down, you were panicking. I want to lay it out. So please give us a personal perspective of just what it's like for the people that are living there and not involved directly in the battle.
OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SENIOR ARABS AFFAIRS EDITOR: Yes, first of all, let me tell you, I'm still panicking, you know, until my family is out of Lebanon and safely back home here in the U.S., I am going to continue to panic but, of course, we continue to do this job. I am lucky to have this job because then I am well-informed. I know exactly what's going on and I can make some smart decisions, I guess.
But to bring our viewers into the picture and tell them what's going on, obviously, Lebanon is now into chaos. It was thrown into chaos. Everyone I speak with is totally shocked at how things can get so bad in such a short period of time. Of course, a lot of U.S. citizens in Lebanon as Jaime just mentioned, but also other nationalities.
Lebanon is a destination for tourists, a lot of golf countries' tourists, a lot of Europeans are there. It's a beautiful country. It was also counting on a great tourism season. Unfortunately, that tourism season is of. They are incurring huge losses.
We talked about the airport being shut down because of the bombing. The fleet -- the Middle East Airlines fleet is out of the country. No one knows -- many tourists have fled already by land through Syria and others are stranded right now just waiting for any opportunity to leave.
One important thing to talk about, you know, we always talk about casualties. We are bringing in our viewers lots of numbers from Lebanese authorities about casualties, the dead, the wounded. And we are not seeing much of that, Kyra, on air, and it's important to tell our viewers why that is the case.
Lebanon is a very small country. You can see all these areas that are hit. They are residential areas. They are areas of what we call the Dahi (ph) of Beirut which is the southern suburb of Beirut, the city. This is where the Hezbollah headquarters are, this is where the Hezbollah leader lives. And basically they exist, they function, they operate out of this overpopulated area, so a lot of casualties, but at the same time, not safe for journalists to travel around, even Arab media.
When you watch Arab media, you are not seeing that many casualties, you're not seeing -- we're going to show our viewers, if we have that tape ready, some footage from Al-Arabiya, a 24 hour news network there -- here it is, Al-Arabiya -- showing just three injured.
These people, from what they said on Al-Arabiya, we could gather that they were together, or they were hit by the same explosion. Basically, they were in a car and they described a loud noise, a big explosion, and basically they said they were trying to flee the area on a road near the airport when they got hit and they were brought to this hospital. So Al-Arabiya was lucky to be near that hospital to bring us these pictures.
PHILLIPS: And we've had to decide to decide what networks have been censored, not censored, and that is a network where we can say, OK, these pictures are real.
NASR: They are. They're independent. Al-Arabiya is an independent network, based in Dubai. They have reporters elsewhere, everywhere in the world, but important to say, the Arab networks, what they are focusing -- very much like what we're doing -- they're focusing on live shots. This is when the reporter is standing on location and basically explaining what's going on, focusing more on that than reports and footage.
PHILLIPS: Octavia, thank you, and we are thinking about your family.
NASR: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: Thank you very much. Well, our live conflict of the conflict definitely continues, including the impact here at home. You are watching LIVE FROM.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: At the age of 8, he pointed to the calendar to his mother and father and said in 2004, I want to be in Athens, I want to be a paralympian, and I want to wear a gold medal around my neck, and Rudy Garcia-Tolson foretold the future, it looks like.
He is about to win the first event here at the paralympics in Athens and in fine fashion, still a chance to break his own world record. It looks as though he'll finish just outside that. But Rudy Garcia-Tolson has done it. His dream has become a reality, gold in the men's 200-meter individual medley.
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PHILLIPS: That's Rudy Garcia-Tolson, competing at the 2004 paralympic games in Athens, where he did win the gold. And that's just part of the amazing story of an amazing athlete. He was born with a rare genetic disorder, but that didn't stop him from running, biking, swimming and generally redefining the word active.
Now 17, Rudy will compete in two Olympic distance triathlon, within 48 hours this weekend. Rudy Garcia-Tolson joins me now from New York. Rudy, it's so great to have you. And just looking back at when you won the gold and learning more about your genetic disorder and what we didn't tell our viewers, doctors didn't force you to amputate your legs, you said go ahead and take them off and you were only five-years-old. How did you come to that decision? How did you know that was the right thing to do?
RUDY GARCIA-TOLSON, DOUBLE AMPUTEE: You know, for me that was just the only choice I saw because I didn't want to stay in a wheelchair the rest of my life.
PHILLIPS: And explain to our viewers about this genetic disorder and what your legs were like and why you made that decision to amputate them.
GARCIA-TOLSON: Well, when I was born, I was born with a birth defect. It consisted of my legs. My legs were bent under the knee and there was skin under the knee, so I couldn't stretch them out. And I went through about 15 operations to try to correct them and nothing worked, so at the age of five, the doctors gave me and my family a choice, and I just told them cut them off, I want to be active. I want to be outside.
PHILLIPS: So do you remember that moment and how did you know at five?
GARCIA-TOLSON: I remember the moment a little bit, but like I said, it was just one thing in my head, just cut them off. I don't need them.
PHILLIPS: And you know what, I love your motto. A brave heart is a powerful weapon. And at five-years-old, you were awfully brave. But then just a few years later, you said look, I am going to Athens, I'm going to compete in the paralympics, and I'm going to win the gold and you did it. What was it like to just hit the side of that pool and realize you won?
GARCIA-TOLSON: It was just a great feeling, because I have trained so hard to get to that point. And I went through a lot. And that right there showed me that if you set a goal in your life, if it's 10 or 20 years ahead of you, anything is possible, you can do it.
PHILLIPS: Now, Rudy, you are talking about all the good things that have happened, but when you were a lot younger, kids were pretty cruel, weren't they?
GARCIA-TOLSON: Oh, yes.
PHILLIPS: What did they say to you?
GARCIA-TOLSON: The kids, they would call me names like Robo-Cop, no leg-boy. But I just never listened to them.
PHILLIPS: How did you remain so strong? How were you able to beat that type of harassment and just keep moving forward?
GARCIA-TOLSON: I think it was just my family who always supported me and all my friends who never said Rudy, you have no legs, you can't do that. They always said go ahead. They never treated me different.
PHILLIPS: Well I love seeing all the kids flock around you now. Now you're the coolest guy on campus. Now you bike, you surf, you run, you swim, you skate board. Is there any sport that you haven't tried yet that you want to conquer?
GARCIA-TOLSON: The sports keep going on. I want to try snowboarding because I have never done a winter sport. But I'm just going to keep with my favorite sports, which is swimming, running and triathlon.
PHILLIPS: And you're getting ready for a big triathlon this weekend. Tell us about that.
GARCIA-TOLSON: Yes. I will be doing a triathlon in Minnesota, the Lifetime Fitness triathlon. And that will be my first Olympic distance triathlon.
PHILLIPS: Wow. What's your message to kids, adults, anyone that is an amputee or suffering from a disability?
GARCIA-TOLSON: If you have no legs, if you are blind, if you have one arm, anything is possible if you put your mind to it. And I always say, my motto, which is a brave heart is a powerful weapon because to live in this world, you have to have a brave heart.
PHILLIPS: Rudy, you knew as a young kid you were going to get the gold in Greece. What do you think will happen this weekend at the triathlon?
GARCIA-TOLSON: I am just going to have some fun, it's going to be my first Olympic distance triathlon and we'll see what happens.
PHILLIPS: I have a feeling you're going to do very well.
GARCIA-TOLSON: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: Rudy Garcia-Tolson, great talking to you, good luck, we'll be watching.
GARCIA-TOLSON: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: He competes on Sunday, this Sunday. Time now to check in with CNN's Wolf Blitzer. He's standing by in "THE SIT ROOM" to tell us what's coming up at the top of the hour. Hey, Wolf.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: An amazing young man, Kyra, thanks very much. Hezbollah's vow of all-out war against Israel as Israel approves more crushing military strike, is Hezbollah promising certain revenge? We will have continuing coverage of these extreme escalations in the Middle East. CNN reporters are in Israel, they're in Lebanon.
I'll also speak one-on-one with the former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the former U.S. secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger and James Zogby of the Arab-American Institute. All that, Kyra, coming up right here in "THE SITUATION ROOM."
PHILLIPS: We will be watching, thanks, Wolf. Watching the price of oil and the impact on your wallet. We're watching that as well. Ali Velshi with the final numbers, look at him with his big barrel.
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PHILLIPS: Closing bell about to ring. Let's see how the jump in oil prices is impacting the markets. Ali Velshi, can't really miss the barrel behind him.
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