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CNN Live Today

Talk with Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea

Aired February 12, 2003 - 11:38   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: North Korea has indicated U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program would amount to war.
Let's talk now to James Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea. He is joining us this morning from Washington.

Good morning, Ambassador Lilley, thank you for being here today.

JAMES LILLEY, FMR. U.S. AMB. TO SOUTH KOREA: Good morning to you.

COLLINS: I'm wondering, is this mere rhetoric, or do they really mean it?

LILLEY: It's probably 90 percent rhetoric, 10 percent probably some kind of action. This is -- it's constant with their brinkmanship, rhetorical brinkmanship, yes.

COLLINS: As you probably know, in a vote 31-0, just a little while ago, the IAEA did pass a resolution today, declaring that North Korea is in breach of the U.N. safeguards, and sent this issue on to the U.N. Security Council.

What can they do?

LILLEY: I think that's a very positive move, particularly the unanimous vote. The North Koreans have said the U.N. is nothing more than a tool of the United States, but 31 countries voted with us on this issue. What can the U.N. do, Security Council do? I think, first of all, get a resolution of condemnation of the North Korean behavior. Second, I would steer away from sanctions right now. I would leave it up to each individual nation to take whatever action they feel necessary to curtail a proliferation and development of these weapons, which would then allow us the ability to interdict their ships and perhaps the aircraft.

COLLINS: All right, the European Union foreign policy chief is headed to North Korea possibly this week. Do you think that he'll have any success in negotiating at this point, even after this move and this news we heard today?

LILLEY: Well, I think all sorts of people trying to talk to them. Russian Vice Foreign Minister had six hours with Kim Jong-Il. Australians went there. Other people went there. The results was basically zero. My own sense is they're saying we have to deal with the United States directly. We won't deal with anybody else on this problem. Don't get caught in that trap. We go at it the multilateral way with our friends and allies, Japan, China, south Korea and the U.S., and the E.U., and we make a common front, then the United States is ready to deal with them.

COLLINS: So that brings me to my next point. The Bush administration has not commented about this yet. What do you think they need to do? Wait until the U.N. handles it, and then possibly comment, or just keep quiet?

LILLEY: What we're doing now is behind the scenes, more or less. We're going to every capital that is important, namely Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Europe, and talking to them about somehow coordinating our activities, incentives and disincentives for the North Koreans to behave. It's very complex, because people have different agendas.

But I think they can pull it together and face the North Koreans with a common front. We would probably be the tough guy on weapons of mass destruction, South Korea and China probably a little more give on the economic front. Carrot and stick, bring them in. If they go through the nuclear program, if they carry it out, their aid, their support, is cut way back. And these people face a huge problem this winter, perhaps six million people face some form of salvation. They've got to have help. They're desperate to get it fast.

COLLINS: Ambassador Lilly, last question for you. If you would just take a moment to compare the situation with Iraq and North Korea, what do you see as the main difference in handling this? Whether it be, I would imagine diplomatically would obviously be your area of expertise.

LILLEY: Well, I would say, first of all, the major difference is there's no military option in north Korea. If you ever were to take out Pyongyang area, where they have that plutonium processing, they would dump probably 500,000 shells on Seoul and kill millions of people. You can't have it. Second, you have economic leverage over North Korea. It's a failed state. Its economy is in terrible shape, unlike Iraq. It's surrounded by powerful neighbors, unlike Iraq. It's a very different country, and you have to handle it very differently than Iraq. Your leverage here is economic. In Iraq, it's military. So you do handle these thins in different ways.

COLLINS: All right, James Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, we appreciate your time and your insight this morning. Thank you, sir.

LILLEY: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 12, 2003 - 11:38   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: North Korea has indicated U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program would amount to war.
Let's talk now to James Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea. He is joining us this morning from Washington.

Good morning, Ambassador Lilley, thank you for being here today.

JAMES LILLEY, FMR. U.S. AMB. TO SOUTH KOREA: Good morning to you.

COLLINS: I'm wondering, is this mere rhetoric, or do they really mean it?

LILLEY: It's probably 90 percent rhetoric, 10 percent probably some kind of action. This is -- it's constant with their brinkmanship, rhetorical brinkmanship, yes.

COLLINS: As you probably know, in a vote 31-0, just a little while ago, the IAEA did pass a resolution today, declaring that North Korea is in breach of the U.N. safeguards, and sent this issue on to the U.N. Security Council.

What can they do?

LILLEY: I think that's a very positive move, particularly the unanimous vote. The North Koreans have said the U.N. is nothing more than a tool of the United States, but 31 countries voted with us on this issue. What can the U.N. do, Security Council do? I think, first of all, get a resolution of condemnation of the North Korean behavior. Second, I would steer away from sanctions right now. I would leave it up to each individual nation to take whatever action they feel necessary to curtail a proliferation and development of these weapons, which would then allow us the ability to interdict their ships and perhaps the aircraft.

COLLINS: All right, the European Union foreign policy chief is headed to North Korea possibly this week. Do you think that he'll have any success in negotiating at this point, even after this move and this news we heard today?

LILLEY: Well, I think all sorts of people trying to talk to them. Russian Vice Foreign Minister had six hours with Kim Jong-Il. Australians went there. Other people went there. The results was basically zero. My own sense is they're saying we have to deal with the United States directly. We won't deal with anybody else on this problem. Don't get caught in that trap. We go at it the multilateral way with our friends and allies, Japan, China, south Korea and the U.S., and the E.U., and we make a common front, then the United States is ready to deal with them.

COLLINS: So that brings me to my next point. The Bush administration has not commented about this yet. What do you think they need to do? Wait until the U.N. handles it, and then possibly comment, or just keep quiet?

LILLEY: What we're doing now is behind the scenes, more or less. We're going to every capital that is important, namely Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Europe, and talking to them about somehow coordinating our activities, incentives and disincentives for the North Koreans to behave. It's very complex, because people have different agendas.

But I think they can pull it together and face the North Koreans with a common front. We would probably be the tough guy on weapons of mass destruction, South Korea and China probably a little more give on the economic front. Carrot and stick, bring them in. If they go through the nuclear program, if they carry it out, their aid, their support, is cut way back. And these people face a huge problem this winter, perhaps six million people face some form of salvation. They've got to have help. They're desperate to get it fast.

COLLINS: Ambassador Lilly, last question for you. If you would just take a moment to compare the situation with Iraq and North Korea, what do you see as the main difference in handling this? Whether it be, I would imagine diplomatically would obviously be your area of expertise.

LILLEY: Well, I would say, first of all, the major difference is there's no military option in north Korea. If you ever were to take out Pyongyang area, where they have that plutonium processing, they would dump probably 500,000 shells on Seoul and kill millions of people. You can't have it. Second, you have economic leverage over North Korea. It's a failed state. Its economy is in terrible shape, unlike Iraq. It's surrounded by powerful neighbors, unlike Iraq. It's a very different country, and you have to handle it very differently than Iraq. Your leverage here is economic. In Iraq, it's military. So you do handle these thins in different ways.

COLLINS: All right, James Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, we appreciate your time and your insight this morning. Thank you, sir.

LILLEY: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com