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CNN Live Today
Latest on Hurricane Ivan; New Terror Tape
Aired September 10, 2004 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: To Iraq. U.S. warplanes hammer away at insurgent targets in Fallujah for a fourth straight day. Marines say that the latest air strikes took out a rocket launcher on the outskirts of the city. No word on any casualties.
We're told that CIA analysts have a high degree of confidence that that is indeed Ayman al-Zawahiri in the newly-released videotape. The tape of the Osama bin Laden's top deputy aired yesterday on the Arab network Al-Jazeera. We're told the tape appears to be fairly recent. On the tape, al-Zawahiri warning that America's defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan is inevitable.
It is 11:00 a.m. on the East Coast. For those of you just waking up in the West, it is 8:00 a.m. From CNN Center in Atlanta, good morning, once again. I'm Daryn Kagan.
We go to the satellite pictures, the latest image of Hurricane Ivan in the southern Caribbean. It is a powerful Category 4 storm. It is now threatening Jamaica.
Ivan is less than 200 miles away from Kingston, Jamaica. Yet an official there says that very few people have heeded the warnings to move to higher ground. More than 1,000 hurricane shelters have been opened, but a government official estimates only about 300 people have moved into those shelters.
It is going to be days before it's known for sure if Ivan will threaten Florida, but storm-wary officials and residents already fear another ominous cloud over the Sunshine State. Phased evacuations began from the Florida Keys yesterday. About 80,000 people in the Keys. Authorities expect 60,000 to have left by the end of the day.
So the outer bounds of Hurricane Ivan soon should be felt soon in Jamaica. The full force of that storm hitting later today. Our Karl Penhaul is in Kingston. And there's an excellent picture of him to tell us what he has seen so far.
Good morning.
KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Daryn.
The storm seems to be on right now. We're getting the rain thick and steady right now. Still no sign of those high winds, though. A little more than a breeze right now.
But as you say, one of the worrying signs right now is the small number of people in those emergency shelters. We've just come off the phone from the -- with the Office of Disaster Preparedness. An official there was telling me that between 500 and 1,000 people are now in emergency shelters doctored around the country. But that is well, well short of the 500,000 people that officials yesterday were saying may need to be evacuated from low-lying areas of the capital, Kingston, and the surrounding areas.
The official, however, does tell me that he believes that many more people have evacuated voluntarily and gone to stay with residents -- with family members in other parts of the island. But certainly, if people are leaving things until the last minute, to get evacuated, that could spell big problems. Big problems from immobilizing those people in time.
And we have seen amongst ordinary Jamaicans somewhat of an attitude, that they believe that the storm may turn -- turn at the last money the. For that reason, they have not really been boarding up doors and windows with plywood. Some of them have said that they're too poor to be able to afford those measures.
So there is certainly an air of last-minuteness about this now. The government, though, says that it is prepared as far as it can be for the arrival of this hurricane. But he prime minister, P.J. Patterson, asking Jamaicans to prepare for what he called the worst- case scenario, telling Jamaicans to prepare for what he said was imminent danger -- Daryn.
KAGAN: So is it -- is it just the laid back atmosphere of living in the Caribbean? Or, I mean, what is it about these pictures that people just aren't understanding -- Karl.
PENHAUL: It seems to be a laid back attitude here in Jamaica, certainly very different from the picture that I experienced last week in the Bahamas, when people there, 48 hours ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Frances, people were really firmly boarding up and moving away from coastal areas. Yesterday, yes, we did see long line-ups in the supermarkets, some panicked buying, but then as the day wore on, and there were no high winds, and this morning, in the absence of high winds this morning, many Jamaicans seemed to think, well, maybe it's not going to hit, maybe it's just going to turn out at the last minute.
The weather experts, though, saying something very different. One of them told me yesterday, and this morning again, repeated that warning that Hurricane Ivan could be catastrophic for the island. He believes that it will be much worse than the impact of Hurricane Gilbert here, the last major hurricane to pass over Jamaica in 1988 -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Karl Penhaul in Kingston, Jamaica. Thank you.
So, while that's happening, thousands of people are lining up to get out of the Florida Keys this morning. There is only one way out of the Keys. That is U.S. Highway 1. Our John Zarrella is in Key Largo with more on that.
John, good morning to you. JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
And I'm standing right on the edge of U.S. Highway 1. And, you know, while there are breaks in the traffic, as you can see right now, you can also see a long line of cars and boats being pulled on trailers coming out of the Keys steadily now.
The evacuation of non-residents and tourists began yesterday. Today, at 7:00 a.m., the Lower Keys evacuation started. In about an hour, the Middle Keys will begin its evacuation. And then at 4:00 this afternoon, the Upper Keys will begin its evacuation.
About 60,000 of the 80,000 Keys residents are expected to be out of here by the end of today. And, you know, this being the second -- the third potential hit here in Florida in a month, the level of anxiety in Florida is really at an all-time high.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ZARRELLA (voice-over): Denis Chavez has had just about all he can take. He and daughters Alexis and Ashley spent Thursday cleaning up the yard of their Palm Beach County home.
Less than a week ago, they watched as the core of Hurricane Frances just missed them. Now, it's Ivan, and now the anxiety level is going up again.
Denis says maybe it's time to leave Florida for good.
DENIS CHAVEZ, RESIDENT: It's a tough decision mentally, but we're exhausted. We're just -- I don't -- I just don't want to go through it again, and I don't want to put my kids through it again.
ZARRELLA: But it's very possible that it will be deja vu all over again for some parts of the so-called Sunshine State. Ivan, coming up from the south, compounds the problems. Evacuations have begun in the Keys, but do people go east or west to get out of harm's way?
Debris, that could become deadly projectiles, still litter streets from Punta Gorda to Fort Pierce. Fuel is still a precious commodity. Utility trucks handling Hurricane Frances repairs need it, but so will evacuees.
GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: So, I mean, welcome to our world. This is -- there is no set answer to any of these questions. A lot of this depends on where the storm goes. We have a huge challenge in front of us.
ZARRELLA: Plywood continues pouring out of home improvement stores. People who didn't or couldn't board up for Charley or Frances are now.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You could only get so many pieces of wood, and now we're boarding up the rest of it, because I'm just too scared to see what's going to happen now. ZARRELLA: With no let up in this mean season, many hurricane- punch-drunk Floridians have opted to live in the dark, even those who have electricity. Everywhere you look, shutters or plywood cover windows, and people say they are not coming down until the tropics calm down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ZARRELLA: Now, there are no shelters opened in the Florida Keys. Completely closing this -- this place down, if they can, getting as many people out as they can.
The shelter that is open is in south Miami for people living here. If they so choose, they can go to Florida International University. That's where their shelter is. Otherwise, they can head to points north.
Of course, the problem is, with Ivan taking a potentially south to north track, you could be heading right into the storm if you go north. So it is a very difficult situation for everyone in Florida, not knowing what to do or which way to go to get out of the way of Hurricane Ivan -- Daryn.
KAGAN: It is the ultimate guessing game with Mother Nature. John Zarrella, in Key Largo, thank you for that.
Let's see what the latest estimate, guess, whatever you want to call it, is. Orelon Sidney at the weather center tracking Ivan for us -- Orelon.
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Thanks a lot.
The 11:00 advisory just came in from the National Hurricane Center. I'll give you kind of a perspective.
Here, of course, is Ivan, here is Jamaica and Cuba. And then the Florida Keys down through here.
I think it's a pretty good bet that any of those Keys could certainly be in trouble. But the good news is -- well, I don't know if it's good news or not -- the storm seems to be slowing down a little bit. So I guess that's good news to a certain degree, because if you're on the right side of the storm, the winds won't be quite as strong.
But, look, it's only slowed down to 12 miles an hour. And it looks like now the winds will hold at about 145 or thereabouts as it moves on to Jamaica.
So Jamaica is going to get an almost direct hit from a very strong hurricane. There's just really no way out of it unless we could just make the storm disappear. And as you know, that just don't happen -- 155 miles now southeast of Kingston, 16.5 north, 75.1 west is the current coordinates on the storm.
Now, as we go on through the next couple of days, here's what we're looking at. Notice that as we get to 8:00 a.m. Monday, the storm is just over the northern coast of Cuba, in between Cuba and Florida, right through the Florida Straits. That's a little bit of a slowdown from previous.
You can see Sunday it hasn't even made it to the Isle of Youth or the southern part of Cuba. So this is going to be a very slow track through the Caribbean. And we think the turn to the north and northwest is probably a pretty good bet.
But look on either side here, stretching all the way from the Bahamas down to the Yucatan Channel. That's the area of possibility as we go on into 8:00 a.m. Monday.
So we're certainly not out of the woods yet as far as Florida is concerned. Everybody in Florida needs to be concerned about this, but so do people in the central Gulf and maybe even parts of the Bahamas and the southeast U.S. coast.
Look at this, though. Notice we're down to Category 3 as we get up towards the northern coast of Cuba. That's still a major hurricane, and still a reason for the hurricane watch that's in effect for Cuba. Of course, the warnings continue for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
I'm going to try to put something together for you, show you a few of the players in the atmosphere that may be affecting the track of the storm in the next half-hour -- Daryn.
KAGAN: All right. Get those running shoes ready to keep up with Ivan. Orelon, thank you.
SIDNEY: You're welcome.
KAGAN: You can track Hurricane Ivan any time that you're away from your television today. Just log on to cnn.com/weather. The latest forecast track is available 24 hours a day.
On to world news now. Osama bin Laden's right-hand man is threatening the United States with new suicide attacks. It's the eve of the 9/11 anniversary. Ayman al-Zawahiri appeared in a videotape which was broadcast on Al-Jazeera. He talked to the Bush administration on Iraq and Afghanistan.
Al-Zawahiri says that U.S. troops are bogged down and "hiding in the trenches." He spoke in front of a khaki-colored backdrop concealing his location. That tape made not many specific time references. It did mention recent events.
Peter Bergen is a CNN terrorism analyst. He is joining me now in Washington.
Peter, good morning. Good to have you here with me.
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Good morning, Daryn.
KAGAN: Let's talk about Osama bin Laden and where he might be. You wrote an interesting article for "Atlantic Monthly," where you make the statement that it's still important to try to find Osama bin Laden. Why?
BERGEN: Well, there's a matter of justice for the victims of 9/11, the continued attacks by al Qaeda around the world since 9/11, and also the fact that Ayman al-Zawahiri and bin Laden, through these videotapes and audiotapes that they keep releasing, continue to influence what actually happens. They provide broad strategic guidance to the al Qaeda network.
CNN's David Ensor reporting that it's possible we'll actually hear from bin Laden himself readily soon. And these statements actually have results.
When bin Laden calls for attacks on Americans, people in al Qaeda listen. They regard him as a religious figure. So to get him, to find him is very important.
KAGAN: And so how does it work in terms of people say, "Well, he doesn't really have control. It's not as important to get him anymore. Once you have him, you already have these franchises of al Qaeda all over the world."
BERGEN: Well, it's certainly true that capturing bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri is not going to end the sort of jihadist movements around the world. But it would -- it would put a big dent in al Qaeda, because al Qaeda was really a creation of bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. It was their -- it was their baby, as it were. So finding the two intellectual authors of this organization remains very important.
KAGAN: Why is it so hard to find these two men? They certainly are able to get the videotapes and communication out and certainly able to inspire. So why is it so difficult just to track how these tapes come out?
BERGEN: Well, that is a very good question. Clearly, the chain of custody of these audiotapes is the one guaranteed way. If you could follow it all the way back, you would find bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Why is it so hard to find them? I think for several reasons.
First of all, these guys are disciplined. They prize secrecy. They prize secrecy for years.
They're not talking on satellite phones or radios. There's no way we can intercept their communications electronically. We don't have a mole inside of al Qaeda.
The people around them are not motivated by money, despite the fact there's now $75 million if you find both bin Laden and Ayman al- Zawahiri. The people in their immediate cycle are not motivated by -- by these kinds of cash rewards.
And as you're sitting in Atlanta, as you know, Eric Rudolph, who bombed the centennial park just outside -- allegedly just outside CNN headquarters, he was the subject of the biggest manhunt the in FBI history. It took many years to track him down inside the United States. So times the problem by about 100, you get a sense of how hard it would be to find someone like bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri in Pakistan in some very tough territory.
KAGAN: Let me ask you this, because you went to Pakistan and Afghanistan, you've gone there a number of times. But for purposes of this article, you went not necessarily -- well, basically retracing steps after -- after 9/11 of Osama bin Laden and talking to people who have had contact with him. What is the biggest thing you took away from that journey?
BERGEN: Well, I think, you know, we made a huge mistake at the battle of Tora Bora, which was in early December 2001, when we actually knew where bin Laden was. We didn't -- didn't send in enough American troops to really seal the region off and he got away. And I think also we sort of made a mistake by diverting a lot of resources to Iraq that should have been used to find bin Laden.
Satellites were diverted. U.S. Special Forces were diverted. And the fact is, is that at the end of the day, you know, Osama bin Laden, the man who was behind 9/11, and who was the inspirer of al Qaeda -- and there were no relationships at all, as the 9/11 Commission has pointed out, between Iraq and al Qaeda. And I think that was another mistake, to -- to divert attention to the -- to a war that really had very little to do with what happened on 9/11.
KAGAN: And there you have one of the big debate topics for this campaign 2004. Peter Bergen, thank you for your insight this morning. Appreciate it.
BERGEN: Thank you.
KAGAN: Well, speaking of campaign 2004, let's show you side-by- side pictures. Both campaigns on the trail today. Both candidates.
You have President Bush on the right hand. Kind of appropriate how we set that up, huh, President Bush on the right-hand side of your screen? He's in West Virginia today. You have Senator John Kerry speaking at the same time. He's in St. Louis, Missouri.
More from the campaign trail just ahead.
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KAGAN: Indonesian police launched a nationwide manhunt today for suspects in the Jakarta suicide attack. Authorities blame terrorists linked to al Qaeda for the car bomb. That blast outside the Australian embassy killed nine people and wounded close to 200. Police say the bomb was nearly twice as large as the one used in the attack against the Marriott hotel in Jakarta a year ago. To Russia now. There are more funerals in the wake of last week's school massacre. Now it is a week after the violent end to that standoff.
We are hearing in a very moving and disturbing story from one young boy who lived through the horror. His story now with ITV reporter Bill Neely.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL NEELY, ITV REPORTER (voice over): Georgy Farniyev knows he's lucky to be alive, one of the very few who escape the carnage in his school gym, a horror to which his mind often returns.
This is Georgy a week ago, sitting at the feet of a terrorist, bombs directly above him, the trigger of a bomb in front of him, the masked gunman showing what might kill him, as Georgy cowers in terror.
"The gunmen were scary," he told me. 'I kept very quiet and kept my hands up like this, or this."
He told me he saw adults being killed on the first day. Terrorists threatened to kill him. Then the gym exploded.
"Some people were torn to pieces. I was OK, but then a grenade blew up, and I was hit in the leg."
From here, he limped away and hid in a bookcase.
"I still don't understand," he says, "how I'm alive."
His mother doesn't either. Convinced he was dead, she searched the body bags in the morgue.
"Horrible isn't the word for it," she says.
Remarkably, Georgy's 7-year-old cousin lived through the massacre, too. And today, they were flown out of Beslan for more treatment with 20 other young survivors.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm 12.
NEELY (on camera): You're 12. And how are you?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm fine.
NEELY: Fine.
(voice over): Alla (ph) is punctured with shrapnel.
Ten-year-old Sarah (ph) was burned in the gym. She's having terrible nightmares.
Fidara (ph) is 4 and won't go anywhere now without the toy gun on his pillow. Some were able to walk onto the plane, just; most others, looking very vulnerable, were stretchered on. (on camera): The hospitals around Beslan simply can't cope with the numbers of injured and the treatment they need. So, these children are going on a plane for the first time in their lives, a journey they'd gladly swap for life as it was eight days ago.
(voice over): They've been hostages, then targets; now once again they were just frightened.
The survivors of a mass murder, Georgy happy to be leaving Beslan behind.
But what of the others in the terrorist video who sat with Georgy in the gym? Seema Alikova (ph) stares at the camera. Beside her, 12- year-old Veera Gorava (ph) clasps her hands. Seema (ph) was one of the first to be buried alongside her daughter. Veera (ph) died with her 14-year-old brother.
All the women and girls in this image are dead, too, which makes Georgy Farniyev's survival all the more remarkable.
Bill Neely, ITV News, Beslan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KAGAN: And we come out of that moving and disturbing piece with breaking news that we need to get to from Iraq. Sadr City, that portion of Baghdad, U.S. forces, we're being told, are under fire by the members of the Mehdi militia. Our Diana Muriel is in Baghdad with more on that.
Diana, what can you tell us?
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Daryn, I'm at a forward operating base here in Sadr City, which is this falling slum suburb to the northeast of Baghdad itself. As we arrived here, just a few minutes after we got to this position we started to take incoming mortar fire. Periodic mortar fire, followed by small arms fire and a rocket-propelled grenade.
Soldiers here tell me that this is something of a warm-up act, if you will, for a procedure that seems to occur every night in the recent past. They take on this fire, and then they'll go out on patrol and see patrols are already leaving this base, and the fighting will continue, they expect, throughout the night.
These are the members of the Mehdi militia who have regrouped here in Sadr City since the crisis ended in Najaf. It appeared from where I was standing that reconnaissance vehicles were passing the front of this base, anything from a donkey and cart that I saw, to a bus, with people (UNINTELLIGIBLE), looking to see where the soldiers were.
Minutes, less than minutes later, the incoming fire began, and has continued periodically. This is something that soldiers here for the 1st Cavalry that I'm with have had to put up with now for some time. They do expect the fighting to intensify, as I say, as the evening wears on -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Diana Muriel with the latest from Sadr City. Thank you for that breaking news out of very close to Baghdad.
We're going to take a break. I'm back with more after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KAGAN: It is day three of fashion week in New York City. Eighty shows in eight days will set the look for spring 2005. Yesterday on the show, Carolina Herrera, with the spotlight. Today, designer Vera Wang joins me.
Thank you for being with us in the middle of fashion week.
VERA WANG, DESIGNER: Daryn, I'm absolutely thrilled to be here. Absolutely thrilled. And I just have to say, I got tired of hearing you say that, 80 shows. OK.
KAGAN: Eighty shows. I know. It's huge.
Let's talk about your collection for 2005. What are you featuring for spring?
WANG: Well, it was -- it was really for me about the way I dress myself, which is I love to mix and match. And I love the freedom and creativity that women can have in fashion today. And I tried to make all that happen on the runway.
Some of the influences were definitely Japanese fabrics and traditional kimono dress. But there was also -- many of the things that I did in resort (ph), I tried to deal with nonchalance and ease and dressing for warmer weather, and being really comfortable.
And finally, there was a little bit of the west there as well, just a little reference with some of the ruffles to western dress and Victorian dress in western times. So that's really what the collection was. It was a fusion of all of these different influences, but hopefully create (ph) into a cohesive whole.
KAGAN: OK. Something you said that I picked up on there. You're saying that fashion is allowed to be comfortable?
WANG: I think fashion has to be comfortable.
KAGAN: Right.
WANG: For me, if a woman doesn't feel comfortable, she's not her most sensual, she's not her most upbeat, she's not her most fun. And, you know, a lot of life has to be about those things as well, even when you're dressing up.
KAGAN: You are telling me. Now, a lot of press about fashion this week has been that really all those fashion shows are just a formality, that all the big buying, the really big business part of it took place weeks ago. So why is fashion week still important? WANG: I think fashion week is important because the designer gets to really get their own personal philosophy about women and about style across. That's something that cannot happen in a showroom with fit models standing there and just bringing in garments.
The whole magic, the whole aura of what a designer's philosophy is is only captured after all is said and done on the runway. And we've all tried many other solutions: videos, exhibits. But in the end, it's a real person in the clothes, with movement and life and three-dimensional qualities that makes it come alive.
KAGAN: Well, a lot of movement behind you right there. It is, as you said, incredibly...
WANG: A lot of movement. And that's show-coming (ph) (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
KAGAN: Bring it on.
WANG: Bring it on.
KAGAN: Vera Wang, thank you so much for taking time during this very busy week.
WANG: Thanks for having me.
KAGAN: The clothes look beautiful.
WANG: Thank you so much.
KAGAN: And good luck with the collection in Spring 2005.
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Aired September 10, 2004 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: To Iraq. U.S. warplanes hammer away at insurgent targets in Fallujah for a fourth straight day. Marines say that the latest air strikes took out a rocket launcher on the outskirts of the city. No word on any casualties.
We're told that CIA analysts have a high degree of confidence that that is indeed Ayman al-Zawahiri in the newly-released videotape. The tape of the Osama bin Laden's top deputy aired yesterday on the Arab network Al-Jazeera. We're told the tape appears to be fairly recent. On the tape, al-Zawahiri warning that America's defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan is inevitable.
It is 11:00 a.m. on the East Coast. For those of you just waking up in the West, it is 8:00 a.m. From CNN Center in Atlanta, good morning, once again. I'm Daryn Kagan.
We go to the satellite pictures, the latest image of Hurricane Ivan in the southern Caribbean. It is a powerful Category 4 storm. It is now threatening Jamaica.
Ivan is less than 200 miles away from Kingston, Jamaica. Yet an official there says that very few people have heeded the warnings to move to higher ground. More than 1,000 hurricane shelters have been opened, but a government official estimates only about 300 people have moved into those shelters.
It is going to be days before it's known for sure if Ivan will threaten Florida, but storm-wary officials and residents already fear another ominous cloud over the Sunshine State. Phased evacuations began from the Florida Keys yesterday. About 80,000 people in the Keys. Authorities expect 60,000 to have left by the end of the day.
So the outer bounds of Hurricane Ivan soon should be felt soon in Jamaica. The full force of that storm hitting later today. Our Karl Penhaul is in Kingston. And there's an excellent picture of him to tell us what he has seen so far.
Good morning.
KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Daryn.
The storm seems to be on right now. We're getting the rain thick and steady right now. Still no sign of those high winds, though. A little more than a breeze right now.
But as you say, one of the worrying signs right now is the small number of people in those emergency shelters. We've just come off the phone from the -- with the Office of Disaster Preparedness. An official there was telling me that between 500 and 1,000 people are now in emergency shelters doctored around the country. But that is well, well short of the 500,000 people that officials yesterday were saying may need to be evacuated from low-lying areas of the capital, Kingston, and the surrounding areas.
The official, however, does tell me that he believes that many more people have evacuated voluntarily and gone to stay with residents -- with family members in other parts of the island. But certainly, if people are leaving things until the last minute, to get evacuated, that could spell big problems. Big problems from immobilizing those people in time.
And we have seen amongst ordinary Jamaicans somewhat of an attitude, that they believe that the storm may turn -- turn at the last money the. For that reason, they have not really been boarding up doors and windows with plywood. Some of them have said that they're too poor to be able to afford those measures.
So there is certainly an air of last-minuteness about this now. The government, though, says that it is prepared as far as it can be for the arrival of this hurricane. But he prime minister, P.J. Patterson, asking Jamaicans to prepare for what he called the worst- case scenario, telling Jamaicans to prepare for what he said was imminent danger -- Daryn.
KAGAN: So is it -- is it just the laid back atmosphere of living in the Caribbean? Or, I mean, what is it about these pictures that people just aren't understanding -- Karl.
PENHAUL: It seems to be a laid back attitude here in Jamaica, certainly very different from the picture that I experienced last week in the Bahamas, when people there, 48 hours ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Frances, people were really firmly boarding up and moving away from coastal areas. Yesterday, yes, we did see long line-ups in the supermarkets, some panicked buying, but then as the day wore on, and there were no high winds, and this morning, in the absence of high winds this morning, many Jamaicans seemed to think, well, maybe it's not going to hit, maybe it's just going to turn out at the last minute.
The weather experts, though, saying something very different. One of them told me yesterday, and this morning again, repeated that warning that Hurricane Ivan could be catastrophic for the island. He believes that it will be much worse than the impact of Hurricane Gilbert here, the last major hurricane to pass over Jamaica in 1988 -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Karl Penhaul in Kingston, Jamaica. Thank you.
So, while that's happening, thousands of people are lining up to get out of the Florida Keys this morning. There is only one way out of the Keys. That is U.S. Highway 1. Our John Zarrella is in Key Largo with more on that.
John, good morning to you. JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
And I'm standing right on the edge of U.S. Highway 1. And, you know, while there are breaks in the traffic, as you can see right now, you can also see a long line of cars and boats being pulled on trailers coming out of the Keys steadily now.
The evacuation of non-residents and tourists began yesterday. Today, at 7:00 a.m., the Lower Keys evacuation started. In about an hour, the Middle Keys will begin its evacuation. And then at 4:00 this afternoon, the Upper Keys will begin its evacuation.
About 60,000 of the 80,000 Keys residents are expected to be out of here by the end of today. And, you know, this being the second -- the third potential hit here in Florida in a month, the level of anxiety in Florida is really at an all-time high.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ZARRELLA (voice-over): Denis Chavez has had just about all he can take. He and daughters Alexis and Ashley spent Thursday cleaning up the yard of their Palm Beach County home.
Less than a week ago, they watched as the core of Hurricane Frances just missed them. Now, it's Ivan, and now the anxiety level is going up again.
Denis says maybe it's time to leave Florida for good.
DENIS CHAVEZ, RESIDENT: It's a tough decision mentally, but we're exhausted. We're just -- I don't -- I just don't want to go through it again, and I don't want to put my kids through it again.
ZARRELLA: But it's very possible that it will be deja vu all over again for some parts of the so-called Sunshine State. Ivan, coming up from the south, compounds the problems. Evacuations have begun in the Keys, but do people go east or west to get out of harm's way?
Debris, that could become deadly projectiles, still litter streets from Punta Gorda to Fort Pierce. Fuel is still a precious commodity. Utility trucks handling Hurricane Frances repairs need it, but so will evacuees.
GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: So, I mean, welcome to our world. This is -- there is no set answer to any of these questions. A lot of this depends on where the storm goes. We have a huge challenge in front of us.
ZARRELLA: Plywood continues pouring out of home improvement stores. People who didn't or couldn't board up for Charley or Frances are now.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You could only get so many pieces of wood, and now we're boarding up the rest of it, because I'm just too scared to see what's going to happen now. ZARRELLA: With no let up in this mean season, many hurricane- punch-drunk Floridians have opted to live in the dark, even those who have electricity. Everywhere you look, shutters or plywood cover windows, and people say they are not coming down until the tropics calm down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ZARRELLA: Now, there are no shelters opened in the Florida Keys. Completely closing this -- this place down, if they can, getting as many people out as they can.
The shelter that is open is in south Miami for people living here. If they so choose, they can go to Florida International University. That's where their shelter is. Otherwise, they can head to points north.
Of course, the problem is, with Ivan taking a potentially south to north track, you could be heading right into the storm if you go north. So it is a very difficult situation for everyone in Florida, not knowing what to do or which way to go to get out of the way of Hurricane Ivan -- Daryn.
KAGAN: It is the ultimate guessing game with Mother Nature. John Zarrella, in Key Largo, thank you for that.
Let's see what the latest estimate, guess, whatever you want to call it, is. Orelon Sidney at the weather center tracking Ivan for us -- Orelon.
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Thanks a lot.
The 11:00 advisory just came in from the National Hurricane Center. I'll give you kind of a perspective.
Here, of course, is Ivan, here is Jamaica and Cuba. And then the Florida Keys down through here.
I think it's a pretty good bet that any of those Keys could certainly be in trouble. But the good news is -- well, I don't know if it's good news or not -- the storm seems to be slowing down a little bit. So I guess that's good news to a certain degree, because if you're on the right side of the storm, the winds won't be quite as strong.
But, look, it's only slowed down to 12 miles an hour. And it looks like now the winds will hold at about 145 or thereabouts as it moves on to Jamaica.
So Jamaica is going to get an almost direct hit from a very strong hurricane. There's just really no way out of it unless we could just make the storm disappear. And as you know, that just don't happen -- 155 miles now southeast of Kingston, 16.5 north, 75.1 west is the current coordinates on the storm.
Now, as we go on through the next couple of days, here's what we're looking at. Notice that as we get to 8:00 a.m. Monday, the storm is just over the northern coast of Cuba, in between Cuba and Florida, right through the Florida Straits. That's a little bit of a slowdown from previous.
You can see Sunday it hasn't even made it to the Isle of Youth or the southern part of Cuba. So this is going to be a very slow track through the Caribbean. And we think the turn to the north and northwest is probably a pretty good bet.
But look on either side here, stretching all the way from the Bahamas down to the Yucatan Channel. That's the area of possibility as we go on into 8:00 a.m. Monday.
So we're certainly not out of the woods yet as far as Florida is concerned. Everybody in Florida needs to be concerned about this, but so do people in the central Gulf and maybe even parts of the Bahamas and the southeast U.S. coast.
Look at this, though. Notice we're down to Category 3 as we get up towards the northern coast of Cuba. That's still a major hurricane, and still a reason for the hurricane watch that's in effect for Cuba. Of course, the warnings continue for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
I'm going to try to put something together for you, show you a few of the players in the atmosphere that may be affecting the track of the storm in the next half-hour -- Daryn.
KAGAN: All right. Get those running shoes ready to keep up with Ivan. Orelon, thank you.
SIDNEY: You're welcome.
KAGAN: You can track Hurricane Ivan any time that you're away from your television today. Just log on to cnn.com/weather. The latest forecast track is available 24 hours a day.
On to world news now. Osama bin Laden's right-hand man is threatening the United States with new suicide attacks. It's the eve of the 9/11 anniversary. Ayman al-Zawahiri appeared in a videotape which was broadcast on Al-Jazeera. He talked to the Bush administration on Iraq and Afghanistan.
Al-Zawahiri says that U.S. troops are bogged down and "hiding in the trenches." He spoke in front of a khaki-colored backdrop concealing his location. That tape made not many specific time references. It did mention recent events.
Peter Bergen is a CNN terrorism analyst. He is joining me now in Washington.
Peter, good morning. Good to have you here with me.
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Good morning, Daryn.
KAGAN: Let's talk about Osama bin Laden and where he might be. You wrote an interesting article for "Atlantic Monthly," where you make the statement that it's still important to try to find Osama bin Laden. Why?
BERGEN: Well, there's a matter of justice for the victims of 9/11, the continued attacks by al Qaeda around the world since 9/11, and also the fact that Ayman al-Zawahiri and bin Laden, through these videotapes and audiotapes that they keep releasing, continue to influence what actually happens. They provide broad strategic guidance to the al Qaeda network.
CNN's David Ensor reporting that it's possible we'll actually hear from bin Laden himself readily soon. And these statements actually have results.
When bin Laden calls for attacks on Americans, people in al Qaeda listen. They regard him as a religious figure. So to get him, to find him is very important.
KAGAN: And so how does it work in terms of people say, "Well, he doesn't really have control. It's not as important to get him anymore. Once you have him, you already have these franchises of al Qaeda all over the world."
BERGEN: Well, it's certainly true that capturing bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri is not going to end the sort of jihadist movements around the world. But it would -- it would put a big dent in al Qaeda, because al Qaeda was really a creation of bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. It was their -- it was their baby, as it were. So finding the two intellectual authors of this organization remains very important.
KAGAN: Why is it so hard to find these two men? They certainly are able to get the videotapes and communication out and certainly able to inspire. So why is it so difficult just to track how these tapes come out?
BERGEN: Well, that is a very good question. Clearly, the chain of custody of these audiotapes is the one guaranteed way. If you could follow it all the way back, you would find bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Why is it so hard to find them? I think for several reasons.
First of all, these guys are disciplined. They prize secrecy. They prize secrecy for years.
They're not talking on satellite phones or radios. There's no way we can intercept their communications electronically. We don't have a mole inside of al Qaeda.
The people around them are not motivated by money, despite the fact there's now $75 million if you find both bin Laden and Ayman al- Zawahiri. The people in their immediate cycle are not motivated by -- by these kinds of cash rewards.
And as you're sitting in Atlanta, as you know, Eric Rudolph, who bombed the centennial park just outside -- allegedly just outside CNN headquarters, he was the subject of the biggest manhunt the in FBI history. It took many years to track him down inside the United States. So times the problem by about 100, you get a sense of how hard it would be to find someone like bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri in Pakistan in some very tough territory.
KAGAN: Let me ask you this, because you went to Pakistan and Afghanistan, you've gone there a number of times. But for purposes of this article, you went not necessarily -- well, basically retracing steps after -- after 9/11 of Osama bin Laden and talking to people who have had contact with him. What is the biggest thing you took away from that journey?
BERGEN: Well, I think, you know, we made a huge mistake at the battle of Tora Bora, which was in early December 2001, when we actually knew where bin Laden was. We didn't -- didn't send in enough American troops to really seal the region off and he got away. And I think also we sort of made a mistake by diverting a lot of resources to Iraq that should have been used to find bin Laden.
Satellites were diverted. U.S. Special Forces were diverted. And the fact is, is that at the end of the day, you know, Osama bin Laden, the man who was behind 9/11, and who was the inspirer of al Qaeda -- and there were no relationships at all, as the 9/11 Commission has pointed out, between Iraq and al Qaeda. And I think that was another mistake, to -- to divert attention to the -- to a war that really had very little to do with what happened on 9/11.
KAGAN: And there you have one of the big debate topics for this campaign 2004. Peter Bergen, thank you for your insight this morning. Appreciate it.
BERGEN: Thank you.
KAGAN: Well, speaking of campaign 2004, let's show you side-by- side pictures. Both campaigns on the trail today. Both candidates.
You have President Bush on the right hand. Kind of appropriate how we set that up, huh, President Bush on the right-hand side of your screen? He's in West Virginia today. You have Senator John Kerry speaking at the same time. He's in St. Louis, Missouri.
More from the campaign trail just ahead.
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KAGAN: Indonesian police launched a nationwide manhunt today for suspects in the Jakarta suicide attack. Authorities blame terrorists linked to al Qaeda for the car bomb. That blast outside the Australian embassy killed nine people and wounded close to 200. Police say the bomb was nearly twice as large as the one used in the attack against the Marriott hotel in Jakarta a year ago. To Russia now. There are more funerals in the wake of last week's school massacre. Now it is a week after the violent end to that standoff.
We are hearing in a very moving and disturbing story from one young boy who lived through the horror. His story now with ITV reporter Bill Neely.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL NEELY, ITV REPORTER (voice over): Georgy Farniyev knows he's lucky to be alive, one of the very few who escape the carnage in his school gym, a horror to which his mind often returns.
This is Georgy a week ago, sitting at the feet of a terrorist, bombs directly above him, the trigger of a bomb in front of him, the masked gunman showing what might kill him, as Georgy cowers in terror.
"The gunmen were scary," he told me. 'I kept very quiet and kept my hands up like this, or this."
He told me he saw adults being killed on the first day. Terrorists threatened to kill him. Then the gym exploded.
"Some people were torn to pieces. I was OK, but then a grenade blew up, and I was hit in the leg."
From here, he limped away and hid in a bookcase.
"I still don't understand," he says, "how I'm alive."
His mother doesn't either. Convinced he was dead, she searched the body bags in the morgue.
"Horrible isn't the word for it," she says.
Remarkably, Georgy's 7-year-old cousin lived through the massacre, too. And today, they were flown out of Beslan for more treatment with 20 other young survivors.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm 12.
NEELY (on camera): You're 12. And how are you?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm fine.
NEELY: Fine.
(voice over): Alla (ph) is punctured with shrapnel.
Ten-year-old Sarah (ph) was burned in the gym. She's having terrible nightmares.
Fidara (ph) is 4 and won't go anywhere now without the toy gun on his pillow. Some were able to walk onto the plane, just; most others, looking very vulnerable, were stretchered on. (on camera): The hospitals around Beslan simply can't cope with the numbers of injured and the treatment they need. So, these children are going on a plane for the first time in their lives, a journey they'd gladly swap for life as it was eight days ago.
(voice over): They've been hostages, then targets; now once again they were just frightened.
The survivors of a mass murder, Georgy happy to be leaving Beslan behind.
But what of the others in the terrorist video who sat with Georgy in the gym? Seema Alikova (ph) stares at the camera. Beside her, 12- year-old Veera Gorava (ph) clasps her hands. Seema (ph) was one of the first to be buried alongside her daughter. Veera (ph) died with her 14-year-old brother.
All the women and girls in this image are dead, too, which makes Georgy Farniyev's survival all the more remarkable.
Bill Neely, ITV News, Beslan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KAGAN: And we come out of that moving and disturbing piece with breaking news that we need to get to from Iraq. Sadr City, that portion of Baghdad, U.S. forces, we're being told, are under fire by the members of the Mehdi militia. Our Diana Muriel is in Baghdad with more on that.
Diana, what can you tell us?
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Daryn, I'm at a forward operating base here in Sadr City, which is this falling slum suburb to the northeast of Baghdad itself. As we arrived here, just a few minutes after we got to this position we started to take incoming mortar fire. Periodic mortar fire, followed by small arms fire and a rocket-propelled grenade.
Soldiers here tell me that this is something of a warm-up act, if you will, for a procedure that seems to occur every night in the recent past. They take on this fire, and then they'll go out on patrol and see patrols are already leaving this base, and the fighting will continue, they expect, throughout the night.
These are the members of the Mehdi militia who have regrouped here in Sadr City since the crisis ended in Najaf. It appeared from where I was standing that reconnaissance vehicles were passing the front of this base, anything from a donkey and cart that I saw, to a bus, with people (UNINTELLIGIBLE), looking to see where the soldiers were.
Minutes, less than minutes later, the incoming fire began, and has continued periodically. This is something that soldiers here for the 1st Cavalry that I'm with have had to put up with now for some time. They do expect the fighting to intensify, as I say, as the evening wears on -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Diana Muriel with the latest from Sadr City. Thank you for that breaking news out of very close to Baghdad.
We're going to take a break. I'm back with more after this.
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KAGAN: It is day three of fashion week in New York City. Eighty shows in eight days will set the look for spring 2005. Yesterday on the show, Carolina Herrera, with the spotlight. Today, designer Vera Wang joins me.
Thank you for being with us in the middle of fashion week.
VERA WANG, DESIGNER: Daryn, I'm absolutely thrilled to be here. Absolutely thrilled. And I just have to say, I got tired of hearing you say that, 80 shows. OK.
KAGAN: Eighty shows. I know. It's huge.
Let's talk about your collection for 2005. What are you featuring for spring?
WANG: Well, it was -- it was really for me about the way I dress myself, which is I love to mix and match. And I love the freedom and creativity that women can have in fashion today. And I tried to make all that happen on the runway.
Some of the influences were definitely Japanese fabrics and traditional kimono dress. But there was also -- many of the things that I did in resort (ph), I tried to deal with nonchalance and ease and dressing for warmer weather, and being really comfortable.
And finally, there was a little bit of the west there as well, just a little reference with some of the ruffles to western dress and Victorian dress in western times. So that's really what the collection was. It was a fusion of all of these different influences, but hopefully create (ph) into a cohesive whole.
KAGAN: OK. Something you said that I picked up on there. You're saying that fashion is allowed to be comfortable?
WANG: I think fashion has to be comfortable.
KAGAN: Right.
WANG: For me, if a woman doesn't feel comfortable, she's not her most sensual, she's not her most upbeat, she's not her most fun. And, you know, a lot of life has to be about those things as well, even when you're dressing up.
KAGAN: You are telling me. Now, a lot of press about fashion this week has been that really all those fashion shows are just a formality, that all the big buying, the really big business part of it took place weeks ago. So why is fashion week still important? WANG: I think fashion week is important because the designer gets to really get their own personal philosophy about women and about style across. That's something that cannot happen in a showroom with fit models standing there and just bringing in garments.
The whole magic, the whole aura of what a designer's philosophy is is only captured after all is said and done on the runway. And we've all tried many other solutions: videos, exhibits. But in the end, it's a real person in the clothes, with movement and life and three-dimensional qualities that makes it come alive.
KAGAN: Well, a lot of movement behind you right there. It is, as you said, incredibly...
WANG: A lot of movement. And that's show-coming (ph) (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
KAGAN: Bring it on.
WANG: Bring it on.
KAGAN: Vera Wang, thank you so much for taking time during this very busy week.
WANG: Thanks for having me.
KAGAN: The clothes look beautiful.
WANG: Thank you so much.
KAGAN: And good luck with the collection in Spring 2005.
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