Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Today
Update on British Hostage Kenneth Bigley; What Do President Bush and John Kerry Have in Store For Each Other Tomorrow Night?
Aired September 29, 2004 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: And SpaceShipOne is heading for the heavens. The privately developed manned rocketship -- I guess you could call it that. It looks like an airplane, but it's being carried by a jet to an altitude of 47,000 feet. And soon SpaceShipOne will be released and ignite its rocket for a quick space ride. Now if this trip and a similar one on Monday is successful, SpaceShipOne's creators will win $10 million. Not bad.
And welcome back.
We want to bring you news about the hostages right now. The brother of British hostage Kenneth Bigley says his captors in Iraq will show him mercy and release him. That was in an e-mail message Paul Bigley says he received about his brother. We are going to have -- well, we don't have confirmation of any release plans right now, but we do know more about the return of two Italian female hostages from Iraq.
CNN's senior editor for Arab affairs -- let me get that right -- Octavia Nasr is here with me right now.
Octavia, it was good news to hear these two Italians released, but unusual in the sense that it's been so predictable that the captors didn't seem to have any intention of releasing hostages, and in fact wanted to kill them.
OCTAVIA NASR, CNN'S SR. EDITOR FOR ARAB AFFAIRS: The problem with this group in particular, the Italian aide workers, is that from the from beginning, we did not know which group took them. There was no claim of responsibility, there was no pictures shown, no video as we see in other hostage situation. So it was very secretive, this whole thing, from the beginning. We had two different groups that claimed that they had them. Then a group over the weekend claimed that they'd beheaded them. So it had been very strange, this whole situation.
And finally yes, yesterday the release of the two, it was very interesting. Of course it's good news for Italy and their families. And also Iraq saw good news for many others. I counted them yesterday, eight in total. Of course the translators of the couple here, the translators are Iraqis. And they were released with them.
Also Egyptians and Iraqi engineers that work for a telecommunication company in Iraq were released yesterday.
And of course we heard about the French hostages, the French journalists, who are still in captivity. French negotiator yesterday, the Arab News Network, said that he did indeed see them, that they are in good health, and also psychologically and emotionally they were stable and doing well, and he said that the abductors promised that they will be released in the next 48 hours.
LIN: So in world where it comes to hostages, it's hard to separate fact from fiction, and who's making one claims. Why do you think Paul Bigley believes this indication that his brother Kenneth is still alive?
NASR: Now, Bigley's case is a bit different. He is taken by a group that has shown no mercy so far. Remember that's the same group -- actually Bigley was taken along with the two Americans that were beheaded last week. So this is a group, the Unification and Jihad, is linked directly to Abu Musab Zarqawi, an Al Qaeda leader with strong ties to bin Laden. This group hasn't shown mercy in many cases. Now...
LIN: Paul Johnson.
NASR: Yes.
LIN: Nicholas Berg.
NASR: Nick Berg.
LIN: Two others, two other Americans that were beheaded.
NASR: Absolutely. Especially towards Westerners, they haven't shown any mercy.
Now the different thing about this case, about the Bigley case, is that he was taken, along with two Americans who were beheaded, except he is still alive, we think at least today. New tapes surfaced on Al Jazeera with him making an appeal to the British prime minister to do whatever he can to ensure his release.
So with what the brother is saying and what we saw on Al Jazeera today, there's hope that he will indeed be released.
LIN: Why would they keep them alive? Why are we seeing more hostages released?
NASR: Well, that's a very good question that not many people know the answer to. Yesterday, one of the chief negotiators with these insurgents was on Al Arabia. One of the thing he said, was that in most cases, when you negotiate with these insurgents and terrorists, you have to deal with them on a human level. You have to tell them you're good people...
LIN: But, Frankly, for some Americans, that's an oxymoron, why deal with them on a human level when they're behaving like animals?
NASR: Right. And what this negotiator was saying, is that these people believe that they have a cause, and a just cause at that, so you have to deal with them from this standpoint. You cannot deal with them as terrorists.
LIN: Respect.
NASR: Yes, you have show them respect. You have to tell them, look, we understand, you have an issue, you have a cause, we respect that cause. Now the people that you're holding have nothing to do with that cause. So basically you have to convince them that the people that they're holding have nothing to do with the U.S. forces, with coalition forces in Iraq, have nothing to do with occupation, with the invasion, and so forth. And if you convince them -- that's what the negotiator was saying yesterday -- if you can convince them of your good intentions, then they will release the hostages that you're trying to release.
LIN: Why not cold, hard cash?
NASR: Well, that works, too. Except no one comes out and admits it, that they did pay a ransom. The Kuwaitis did it, the Egyptians did it. We've reported it, because there were some solid intelligence information coming out, saying that a ransom was paid in certain cases, but of course it's one of those things where no one is going to admit on camera, on the record that yes, indeed, we paid a ransom.
There were talks also that the Italian hostages were released because a ransom was paid, although the -- that same negotiator involved in releasing the Italian hostages insisted yesterday that no money was paid, that it was just a release because these women have nothing to do with the occupation.
LIN: A compassionate release.
NASR: I guess you could call it that.
LIN: All right, we'll see.
Otherwise you say, there's money out there, then everybody's grabbing people off the streets.
NASR: Right.
LIN: Thanks, Octavia.
NASR: Thank you.
LIN: Well, Baghdad's Haifa Street has been the scene of intense anti-insurgency activity. Iraqi officials say a number of raids were conducted along the street by U.S. and Iraqi forces. Haifa Street has been the scene of frequent bombings and fighting. And elsewhere in Baghdad, the U.S. military reports targeting, and I'm quoting here, insurgent vehicle in a precision airstrike.
Now the ferocity and ruthlessness of the insurgency may have taken some Americans by surprise, but apparently the administration was warned of exactly this possibility if the U.S. invaded Iraq.
For that, we're going to turn to CNN national security correspondent David Ensor.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATL. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Classified reports prepared for President Bush two months before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, warned, sources say, of an insurgency, that would unite ex-Baathists and Islamic terrorists. Reports of January 2003, from the National Intelligence Council, warned that an invasion would increase support for radical Islam and result in a divided Iraqi society prone to conflict.
JOSEPH BAMFORD, AUTHOR, "A PRETEXT FOR WAR": The United States was warned but you won't hear that from the White House and that's why I think the CIA is quietly trying to leak this information out.
ENSOR: Word of the intelligence reports was seized upon by Democrats. Vice presidential candidate Senator John Edwards saying, quote, ignoring the truth has been the hallmark of George Bush's presidency. But in Crawford, Texas, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration has always talked about how it is hard to transition from a brutal dictatorship to democracy. But what we're working to achieve, he said, will make America more secure.
The reports were prepared under the direction of Paul Pilar, a senior official at the National Intelligence Council, a quasi- independent think tank based at the CIA. Word of their warnings before the war, comes after news of a gloomy intelligence estimate, done in July of this year, about the future prospects for Iraq. An estimate at first disparaged by the president.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be like.
I used an unfortunate word, guess. I should have used estimate.
ENSOR (on camera): U.S. officials say suggestions of a battle between the CIA and the White House over Iraq policy are way off the mark, but clearly, information about warnings given to the White House before the invasion is coming out at an inconvenient time for the administration.
David Ensor, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LIN: We turn now to an appeal story about John Walker Lindh. Remember him? He was the American-born man who is asking President Bush now to commute his prison sentence after he was captured in Afghanistan three years ago alongside Taliban fighters. He got 20 years in prison. But his lawyer says his case is now very similar to Yaser Hamdi, also an American who was released last week after just three years in prison.
Now Johnny Michael Spann, a CIA agent, was killed in the battle where Lindh and Hamdi were captured. His father, also named Johnny Spann, talked about Lindh's appeal on CNN's AMERICAN MORNING. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNNY SPANN, JOHNNY MICHAEL SPANN'S FATHER: I'm really not surprised that his family did this and that he did this. They've been saying things like that ever since the, you know, when he was captured. They've tried to convince the American people that, you know, he was a good American, he never hurt anybody, never wanted to hurt anybody, never carried arms, never fired at anybody or anything like that. But the thing about it is that we know he did.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LIN: Many people that CNN spoke with say it is unlikely that President Bush is actually going to reduce John Walker Lindh's prison term.
Now we want to move on to political news. The big story tomorrow is the debate. So what do President Bush and John Kerry have in store for each other tomorrow night? CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield looks into the past for some clues.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): President Bush and Senator Kerry both have had plenty of debates in recent years. But sometimes the most intriguing clues to their strategies can be found earlier in their careers. Look back and you find that the contestants are both highly effective debaters, but with very different approaches.
Here's John Kerry back in 1984 in a Senate primary debate with a more conservative Democratic foe. Watch how he fuses his Vietnam record and his more liberal war and peace stance, as he poses a question to his opponent.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm concerned. You voted for the M.X. missile and then you said that that was a mistake. You voted for the anti-satellite flight testing and that's a mistake. I fought in a mistake called Vietnam. How are we to have confidence that you're not going to vote in a war and peace issue for another mistake at some time in the future?
GREENFIELD: Or consider this famous exchange during his tough 1996 re-election fight against Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld. Weld challenged him to explain to the widow of a murdered police officer whether his death penalty opposition mean that Kerry valued a murderer's life more than her husband's. Note the cryptic reference Kerry made to his combat experience.
KERRY: Yes, I've been opposed to death. I know something about killing. I don't like killing. And I don't think a state honors life by turning around and sanctioning killing.
GREENFIELD: If Kerry is a counter puncher, quick on his feet, then Bush's strength is something else -- a relentless capacity to stay on-message. In 1994, Texas Governor Ann Richards repeatedly challenged Bush's business credentials. Here's how he turned that around.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think that this is a diversion away from not talking about the issues that face Texas. I want to discus welfare, education. I want to discuss the juvenile justice system. And I think an attempt to smear my business record is simply a diversion away from trying to determine what's best for Texas.
GREENFIELD: And watch as Bush uses the same kind of defense against Richard's very tough indictment.
ANN RICHARD, FORMER GOVERNOR OF TEXAS: I think the question is that you have got to have had some experience in the public sector before you get the chief executive's job.
BUSH: This business about trying to diminish my personality based upon my business career is, frankly, astounding to me. Here we are in the middle of a political campaign. The incumbent governor of the State of Texas is spending all her money on TV, trying to make me something I'm not.
GREENFIELD (on camera): So are there clues here to what might happen Thursday night? Could be. Don't be surprised if John Kerry tries to turn a question that challenges his constituency into an answer that challenges President Bush on failing to face reality. And don't be surprised if President Bush tries to raise, as often as he possibly can, the idea that America is a lot safer with Saddam Hussein out of power.
Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
LIN: OK. Well, you can watch the debate right here on CNN and then check out the spin room where the campaigns offer analysis. The debate begins at 9:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night.
Meantime, keeping their eye on the prize: will SpaceShipOne be able to enter space in a few short minutes? We're going to go live to the Mojave Desert in California where our Miles O'Brien is standing by.
Plus, how yesterday's earthquake in California could help predict future quakes. CNN LIVE TODAY will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(STOCK MARKET UPDATE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LIN: Right now, over the Mojave Desert in California, a privately built spaceship is preparing to enter the upper reaches of the atmosphere for the second time. Now if it can do it a third time within the next 14 days, it would likely win $10 million. It's called the $10 million X-Prize. CNN space correspondent Miles O'Brien in the Mojave Desert for what could be an important milestone.
Miles, how's it going out there?
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Carol, it's been about 35 minutes now since the White Knight took off in the Mojave Airport here, carrying SpaceShipOne beneath its belly.
It's a beautiful site. Let's take a look at those pictures from about 35 minutes ago as it rolled down the runway. There were some earlier concerns about the wind here at the Mojave Airport, but as is the pattern out here, as the sun rose, the wind died down, and conditions were acceptable for what you see right there. This small spacecraft is carried beneath the aircraft, that kind of gull-like aircraft.
They are currently in excess of 30,000 feet in the midst of their afterburner climb, which they hope to take the craft to about 50,000 feet, at which time the pilot of White Knight, will drop SpaceShipOne, carrying civilian astronaut Mike Melvill, originally of South Africa, 63 years old, hopefully on his second visit to space in the past few months.
This will be the first official X-Prize attempt in order to win the $10 million award. This craft capable of carrying three people needs to do this twice in two weeks.
Now, Mike Melvill's alone carrying equivalent weight of three people. Most of it is trinkets and treasures from the team, mementos of what they hope will be this first historical event.
Joining me quickly, Dick Rutan, who's been listening to the radios. He's the brother of Burt Rutan, the designer of this craft. Have you heard anything unusual on the air-to-ground frequencies, air- to-air frequencies?
DICK RUTAN: I'm been monitoring the frequencies and everything is real normal. They had a good AB light at 30,000 feet, and now they're going to...
O'BRIEN: Afterburners?
RUTAN: Yes, afterburner climb, and they're going to try to get to 48,000. And from what I can hear, everything is nice and quiet.
O'BRIEN: So it's quiet, and that means Mike Melvill is not doing a lot right now, which is a terrible time for a pilot, right?
RUTAN: He has to sat there inactive, and know he's going to have to do something very important in just a few minutes. And it would be nice to be a little bit active. But he has to sit there, and everything's in good shape, and I can imagine what he's feeling right now.
O'BRIEN: Time moves slowly when there's not a lot on the checklist, I presume. But very soon he will be very busy, Carol. As soon as they get up to 50,000 feet, I suspect, what, another 10 minutes of climbing maybe?
RUTAN: Ten or 15 more minutes.
O'BRIEN: Ten or 15 more minutes, Carol, they will separate, and off Mike Melvill will go, hoping to reach an altitude of 62 statute miles, 100 kilometers, the threshold of space -- Carol.
LIN: Miles, for us layheads out here, I mean, is it really just a matter of going up and down, and is it really that complicated?
O'BRIEN: Well, yes, in a sense it's real simple, right? You light the rocket, you go up, you point straight up, as high as you can, you go as far as you can, and then down you come for a glide landing.
Of course the devil, as always, is in the details. There's a lot of things that can go wrong on the flight in June, their first attempt successful attempt, they just barely made it; they ran into wind shear at altitude. Mike Melvill had to kind of struggle to keep the SpaceShipOne on its right trajectory. In the midst of that, they just made the altitude by about a few hundred feet. So little things like that can come to haunt you. The demons are out there, as Dick Rutan says. It's how you respond to the demons.
LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Miles. A lot like the work you do, right. It's hard to be a journalist these days.
We also want to talk about a story of survival coming up, a fiery crash and an amazing tale of hero heroism. We're going to have those details.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LIN: Well, let's take a look at other stories making news right now coast to coast. The ground is shaking and a lot of rattled nerves the day after, a 6.0 earthquake shook a north central part of California. And this camera in a nice convenience store Tuesday recorded it all on tape. You can see the ground shaking there. Now experts are reporting more than 160 aftershocks. They say that this data will actually help them predict future earthquakes since the USGS uses Parkfield, California as literally an earthquake laboratory. Nobody was hurt in that earthquake.
Now in Louisiana, a gay rights group actually wants to use the IRS to get Jimmy Swaggart to pay for his comments. The Capital City Alliance is asking the government to investigate the tax-exempt status of Jimmy Swaggart's ministries after he said that he would kill any gay man who looked at him. The gay rights group says those comments should disqualify Swaggart's businesses from get no-tax privileges.
And in the state of Texas, marching into the arms of loved ones. Tuesday, in Ft. Hood, family and friends welcomed home some 200 troops who had been in Iraq for more than a year. The soldiers from the Army's 1st Cavalry Division say they are happy to be home, but worried about comrades left behind. Fifty-nine soldiers of the 1st Calvary Division have died in Iraq.
And we're keeping track of all that's happening in Iraq. All you have to do is log on to CNN.com, because right there, you can learn more about those two female Italian hostages we were just talking about who were recently freed. And there are some other reports on the situation in that country. Once again, CNN.com.
Also we've got disturbing pictures of an apparent...
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LIN: Take a look at the scene out of Providence, Rhode Island, disturbing pictures of an apparent suicide attempt and a rescue. The car of a Brown University student flipped end over end, and then burst into flames after he smashed his car into a concrete bridge support. Firefighters were able to pull the screaming 21-year-old man from the car seconds as flames swept through the car. The police say he was trying to kill himself. The city's mayor praised the firefighters for saving the man's life.
Traditionally, we don't air suicide stories on the air, but I guess the pictures were very dramatic.
We have much more ahead on CNN LIVE TODAY. It begins right now.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 29, 2004 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: And SpaceShipOne is heading for the heavens. The privately developed manned rocketship -- I guess you could call it that. It looks like an airplane, but it's being carried by a jet to an altitude of 47,000 feet. And soon SpaceShipOne will be released and ignite its rocket for a quick space ride. Now if this trip and a similar one on Monday is successful, SpaceShipOne's creators will win $10 million. Not bad.
And welcome back.
We want to bring you news about the hostages right now. The brother of British hostage Kenneth Bigley says his captors in Iraq will show him mercy and release him. That was in an e-mail message Paul Bigley says he received about his brother. We are going to have -- well, we don't have confirmation of any release plans right now, but we do know more about the return of two Italian female hostages from Iraq.
CNN's senior editor for Arab affairs -- let me get that right -- Octavia Nasr is here with me right now.
Octavia, it was good news to hear these two Italians released, but unusual in the sense that it's been so predictable that the captors didn't seem to have any intention of releasing hostages, and in fact wanted to kill them.
OCTAVIA NASR, CNN'S SR. EDITOR FOR ARAB AFFAIRS: The problem with this group in particular, the Italian aide workers, is that from the from beginning, we did not know which group took them. There was no claim of responsibility, there was no pictures shown, no video as we see in other hostage situation. So it was very secretive, this whole thing, from the beginning. We had two different groups that claimed that they had them. Then a group over the weekend claimed that they'd beheaded them. So it had been very strange, this whole situation.
And finally yes, yesterday the release of the two, it was very interesting. Of course it's good news for Italy and their families. And also Iraq saw good news for many others. I counted them yesterday, eight in total. Of course the translators of the couple here, the translators are Iraqis. And they were released with them.
Also Egyptians and Iraqi engineers that work for a telecommunication company in Iraq were released yesterday.
And of course we heard about the French hostages, the French journalists, who are still in captivity. French negotiator yesterday, the Arab News Network, said that he did indeed see them, that they are in good health, and also psychologically and emotionally they were stable and doing well, and he said that the abductors promised that they will be released in the next 48 hours.
LIN: So in world where it comes to hostages, it's hard to separate fact from fiction, and who's making one claims. Why do you think Paul Bigley believes this indication that his brother Kenneth is still alive?
NASR: Now, Bigley's case is a bit different. He is taken by a group that has shown no mercy so far. Remember that's the same group -- actually Bigley was taken along with the two Americans that were beheaded last week. So this is a group, the Unification and Jihad, is linked directly to Abu Musab Zarqawi, an Al Qaeda leader with strong ties to bin Laden. This group hasn't shown mercy in many cases. Now...
LIN: Paul Johnson.
NASR: Yes.
LIN: Nicholas Berg.
NASR: Nick Berg.
LIN: Two others, two other Americans that were beheaded.
NASR: Absolutely. Especially towards Westerners, they haven't shown any mercy.
Now the different thing about this case, about the Bigley case, is that he was taken, along with two Americans who were beheaded, except he is still alive, we think at least today. New tapes surfaced on Al Jazeera with him making an appeal to the British prime minister to do whatever he can to ensure his release.
So with what the brother is saying and what we saw on Al Jazeera today, there's hope that he will indeed be released.
LIN: Why would they keep them alive? Why are we seeing more hostages released?
NASR: Well, that's a very good question that not many people know the answer to. Yesterday, one of the chief negotiators with these insurgents was on Al Arabia. One of the thing he said, was that in most cases, when you negotiate with these insurgents and terrorists, you have to deal with them on a human level. You have to tell them you're good people...
LIN: But, Frankly, for some Americans, that's an oxymoron, why deal with them on a human level when they're behaving like animals?
NASR: Right. And what this negotiator was saying, is that these people believe that they have a cause, and a just cause at that, so you have to deal with them from this standpoint. You cannot deal with them as terrorists.
LIN: Respect.
NASR: Yes, you have show them respect. You have to tell them, look, we understand, you have an issue, you have a cause, we respect that cause. Now the people that you're holding have nothing to do with that cause. So basically you have to convince them that the people that they're holding have nothing to do with the U.S. forces, with coalition forces in Iraq, have nothing to do with occupation, with the invasion, and so forth. And if you convince them -- that's what the negotiator was saying yesterday -- if you can convince them of your good intentions, then they will release the hostages that you're trying to release.
LIN: Why not cold, hard cash?
NASR: Well, that works, too. Except no one comes out and admits it, that they did pay a ransom. The Kuwaitis did it, the Egyptians did it. We've reported it, because there were some solid intelligence information coming out, saying that a ransom was paid in certain cases, but of course it's one of those things where no one is going to admit on camera, on the record that yes, indeed, we paid a ransom.
There were talks also that the Italian hostages were released because a ransom was paid, although the -- that same negotiator involved in releasing the Italian hostages insisted yesterday that no money was paid, that it was just a release because these women have nothing to do with the occupation.
LIN: A compassionate release.
NASR: I guess you could call it that.
LIN: All right, we'll see.
Otherwise you say, there's money out there, then everybody's grabbing people off the streets.
NASR: Right.
LIN: Thanks, Octavia.
NASR: Thank you.
LIN: Well, Baghdad's Haifa Street has been the scene of intense anti-insurgency activity. Iraqi officials say a number of raids were conducted along the street by U.S. and Iraqi forces. Haifa Street has been the scene of frequent bombings and fighting. And elsewhere in Baghdad, the U.S. military reports targeting, and I'm quoting here, insurgent vehicle in a precision airstrike.
Now the ferocity and ruthlessness of the insurgency may have taken some Americans by surprise, but apparently the administration was warned of exactly this possibility if the U.S. invaded Iraq.
For that, we're going to turn to CNN national security correspondent David Ensor.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATL. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Classified reports prepared for President Bush two months before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, warned, sources say, of an insurgency, that would unite ex-Baathists and Islamic terrorists. Reports of January 2003, from the National Intelligence Council, warned that an invasion would increase support for radical Islam and result in a divided Iraqi society prone to conflict.
JOSEPH BAMFORD, AUTHOR, "A PRETEXT FOR WAR": The United States was warned but you won't hear that from the White House and that's why I think the CIA is quietly trying to leak this information out.
ENSOR: Word of the intelligence reports was seized upon by Democrats. Vice presidential candidate Senator John Edwards saying, quote, ignoring the truth has been the hallmark of George Bush's presidency. But in Crawford, Texas, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration has always talked about how it is hard to transition from a brutal dictatorship to democracy. But what we're working to achieve, he said, will make America more secure.
The reports were prepared under the direction of Paul Pilar, a senior official at the National Intelligence Council, a quasi- independent think tank based at the CIA. Word of their warnings before the war, comes after news of a gloomy intelligence estimate, done in July of this year, about the future prospects for Iraq. An estimate at first disparaged by the president.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be like.
I used an unfortunate word, guess. I should have used estimate.
ENSOR (on camera): U.S. officials say suggestions of a battle between the CIA and the White House over Iraq policy are way off the mark, but clearly, information about warnings given to the White House before the invasion is coming out at an inconvenient time for the administration.
David Ensor, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LIN: We turn now to an appeal story about John Walker Lindh. Remember him? He was the American-born man who is asking President Bush now to commute his prison sentence after he was captured in Afghanistan three years ago alongside Taliban fighters. He got 20 years in prison. But his lawyer says his case is now very similar to Yaser Hamdi, also an American who was released last week after just three years in prison.
Now Johnny Michael Spann, a CIA agent, was killed in the battle where Lindh and Hamdi were captured. His father, also named Johnny Spann, talked about Lindh's appeal on CNN's AMERICAN MORNING. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNNY SPANN, JOHNNY MICHAEL SPANN'S FATHER: I'm really not surprised that his family did this and that he did this. They've been saying things like that ever since the, you know, when he was captured. They've tried to convince the American people that, you know, he was a good American, he never hurt anybody, never wanted to hurt anybody, never carried arms, never fired at anybody or anything like that. But the thing about it is that we know he did.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LIN: Many people that CNN spoke with say it is unlikely that President Bush is actually going to reduce John Walker Lindh's prison term.
Now we want to move on to political news. The big story tomorrow is the debate. So what do President Bush and John Kerry have in store for each other tomorrow night? CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield looks into the past for some clues.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): President Bush and Senator Kerry both have had plenty of debates in recent years. But sometimes the most intriguing clues to their strategies can be found earlier in their careers. Look back and you find that the contestants are both highly effective debaters, but with very different approaches.
Here's John Kerry back in 1984 in a Senate primary debate with a more conservative Democratic foe. Watch how he fuses his Vietnam record and his more liberal war and peace stance, as he poses a question to his opponent.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm concerned. You voted for the M.X. missile and then you said that that was a mistake. You voted for the anti-satellite flight testing and that's a mistake. I fought in a mistake called Vietnam. How are we to have confidence that you're not going to vote in a war and peace issue for another mistake at some time in the future?
GREENFIELD: Or consider this famous exchange during his tough 1996 re-election fight against Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld. Weld challenged him to explain to the widow of a murdered police officer whether his death penalty opposition mean that Kerry valued a murderer's life more than her husband's. Note the cryptic reference Kerry made to his combat experience.
KERRY: Yes, I've been opposed to death. I know something about killing. I don't like killing. And I don't think a state honors life by turning around and sanctioning killing.
GREENFIELD: If Kerry is a counter puncher, quick on his feet, then Bush's strength is something else -- a relentless capacity to stay on-message. In 1994, Texas Governor Ann Richards repeatedly challenged Bush's business credentials. Here's how he turned that around.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think that this is a diversion away from not talking about the issues that face Texas. I want to discus welfare, education. I want to discuss the juvenile justice system. And I think an attempt to smear my business record is simply a diversion away from trying to determine what's best for Texas.
GREENFIELD: And watch as Bush uses the same kind of defense against Richard's very tough indictment.
ANN RICHARD, FORMER GOVERNOR OF TEXAS: I think the question is that you have got to have had some experience in the public sector before you get the chief executive's job.
BUSH: This business about trying to diminish my personality based upon my business career is, frankly, astounding to me. Here we are in the middle of a political campaign. The incumbent governor of the State of Texas is spending all her money on TV, trying to make me something I'm not.
GREENFIELD (on camera): So are there clues here to what might happen Thursday night? Could be. Don't be surprised if John Kerry tries to turn a question that challenges his constituency into an answer that challenges President Bush on failing to face reality. And don't be surprised if President Bush tries to raise, as often as he possibly can, the idea that America is a lot safer with Saddam Hussein out of power.
Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
LIN: OK. Well, you can watch the debate right here on CNN and then check out the spin room where the campaigns offer analysis. The debate begins at 9:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night.
Meantime, keeping their eye on the prize: will SpaceShipOne be able to enter space in a few short minutes? We're going to go live to the Mojave Desert in California where our Miles O'Brien is standing by.
Plus, how yesterday's earthquake in California could help predict future quakes. CNN LIVE TODAY will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(STOCK MARKET UPDATE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LIN: Right now, over the Mojave Desert in California, a privately built spaceship is preparing to enter the upper reaches of the atmosphere for the second time. Now if it can do it a third time within the next 14 days, it would likely win $10 million. It's called the $10 million X-Prize. CNN space correspondent Miles O'Brien in the Mojave Desert for what could be an important milestone.
Miles, how's it going out there?
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Carol, it's been about 35 minutes now since the White Knight took off in the Mojave Airport here, carrying SpaceShipOne beneath its belly.
It's a beautiful site. Let's take a look at those pictures from about 35 minutes ago as it rolled down the runway. There were some earlier concerns about the wind here at the Mojave Airport, but as is the pattern out here, as the sun rose, the wind died down, and conditions were acceptable for what you see right there. This small spacecraft is carried beneath the aircraft, that kind of gull-like aircraft.
They are currently in excess of 30,000 feet in the midst of their afterburner climb, which they hope to take the craft to about 50,000 feet, at which time the pilot of White Knight, will drop SpaceShipOne, carrying civilian astronaut Mike Melvill, originally of South Africa, 63 years old, hopefully on his second visit to space in the past few months.
This will be the first official X-Prize attempt in order to win the $10 million award. This craft capable of carrying three people needs to do this twice in two weeks.
Now, Mike Melvill's alone carrying equivalent weight of three people. Most of it is trinkets and treasures from the team, mementos of what they hope will be this first historical event.
Joining me quickly, Dick Rutan, who's been listening to the radios. He's the brother of Burt Rutan, the designer of this craft. Have you heard anything unusual on the air-to-ground frequencies, air- to-air frequencies?
DICK RUTAN: I'm been monitoring the frequencies and everything is real normal. They had a good AB light at 30,000 feet, and now they're going to...
O'BRIEN: Afterburners?
RUTAN: Yes, afterburner climb, and they're going to try to get to 48,000. And from what I can hear, everything is nice and quiet.
O'BRIEN: So it's quiet, and that means Mike Melvill is not doing a lot right now, which is a terrible time for a pilot, right?
RUTAN: He has to sat there inactive, and know he's going to have to do something very important in just a few minutes. And it would be nice to be a little bit active. But he has to sit there, and everything's in good shape, and I can imagine what he's feeling right now.
O'BRIEN: Time moves slowly when there's not a lot on the checklist, I presume. But very soon he will be very busy, Carol. As soon as they get up to 50,000 feet, I suspect, what, another 10 minutes of climbing maybe?
RUTAN: Ten or 15 more minutes.
O'BRIEN: Ten or 15 more minutes, Carol, they will separate, and off Mike Melvill will go, hoping to reach an altitude of 62 statute miles, 100 kilometers, the threshold of space -- Carol.
LIN: Miles, for us layheads out here, I mean, is it really just a matter of going up and down, and is it really that complicated?
O'BRIEN: Well, yes, in a sense it's real simple, right? You light the rocket, you go up, you point straight up, as high as you can, you go as far as you can, and then down you come for a glide landing.
Of course the devil, as always, is in the details. There's a lot of things that can go wrong on the flight in June, their first attempt successful attempt, they just barely made it; they ran into wind shear at altitude. Mike Melvill had to kind of struggle to keep the SpaceShipOne on its right trajectory. In the midst of that, they just made the altitude by about a few hundred feet. So little things like that can come to haunt you. The demons are out there, as Dick Rutan says. It's how you respond to the demons.
LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Miles. A lot like the work you do, right. It's hard to be a journalist these days.
We also want to talk about a story of survival coming up, a fiery crash and an amazing tale of hero heroism. We're going to have those details.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LIN: Well, let's take a look at other stories making news right now coast to coast. The ground is shaking and a lot of rattled nerves the day after, a 6.0 earthquake shook a north central part of California. And this camera in a nice convenience store Tuesday recorded it all on tape. You can see the ground shaking there. Now experts are reporting more than 160 aftershocks. They say that this data will actually help them predict future earthquakes since the USGS uses Parkfield, California as literally an earthquake laboratory. Nobody was hurt in that earthquake.
Now in Louisiana, a gay rights group actually wants to use the IRS to get Jimmy Swaggart to pay for his comments. The Capital City Alliance is asking the government to investigate the tax-exempt status of Jimmy Swaggart's ministries after he said that he would kill any gay man who looked at him. The gay rights group says those comments should disqualify Swaggart's businesses from get no-tax privileges.
And in the state of Texas, marching into the arms of loved ones. Tuesday, in Ft. Hood, family and friends welcomed home some 200 troops who had been in Iraq for more than a year. The soldiers from the Army's 1st Cavalry Division say they are happy to be home, but worried about comrades left behind. Fifty-nine soldiers of the 1st Calvary Division have died in Iraq.
And we're keeping track of all that's happening in Iraq. All you have to do is log on to CNN.com, because right there, you can learn more about those two female Italian hostages we were just talking about who were recently freed. And there are some other reports on the situation in that country. Once again, CNN.com.
Also we've got disturbing pictures of an apparent...
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LIN: Take a look at the scene out of Providence, Rhode Island, disturbing pictures of an apparent suicide attempt and a rescue. The car of a Brown University student flipped end over end, and then burst into flames after he smashed his car into a concrete bridge support. Firefighters were able to pull the screaming 21-year-old man from the car seconds as flames swept through the car. The police say he was trying to kill himself. The city's mayor praised the firefighters for saving the man's life.
Traditionally, we don't air suicide stories on the air, but I guess the pictures were very dramatic.
We have much more ahead on CNN LIVE TODAY. It begins right now.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
