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CNN Live Today

Debating for the Indecisives; Too Few Troops?; Volcano Watch

Aired October 05, 2004 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: It is exactly 11:00 a.m. on the east coast, 8:00 a.m. on the west. And from CNN Center in Atlanta, Georgia, good morning once again. I'm Daryn Kagan.
Let's get started this hour by looking at the vice presidential debate. Their style couldn't be more different on substance, they are worlds apart. Of course, we're talking about Dick Cheney and John Edwards. They will be face to face for 90 minutes tonight in Cleveland, Ohio. With the election four weeks from today, their job will be to sway critical swing voters to their ticket.

Our Dana Bash is covering the vice president. Joe Johns is with Senator Edwards.

Dana, you go first. Dana, good morning.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning again, Daryn.

Well, they won't say so publicly, but certainly Republicans are hoping that the vice president can regain some of the momentum perhaps the president lost after last week's debate that disappointed some Republicans, even.

And the vice president's aides say that his strategy is quite simple, to try to mirror what he does as he campaigns across the country, which is to defend and promote the president's policies and also to attack the Democrats as weak on defense and as liberals ready to raise taxes.

But there is one word that sums up what Cheney advisors will hear, that they hope voters will hear and see, which is experience. They hope that people will understand that in a post-9/11 world, as Cheney advisors say, the vice president, that role actually matters.

And they question, who would you rather have in that particular position, somebody with five years of experience in Washington, like Senator Edwards, or somebody with 40? However, they are trying to raise expectations for John Edwards in another area, and that is his style.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARY MATALIN, BUSH CAMPAIGN SR. ADVISOR: They think they have some pretty good and glib talkers. When they put Senator Edwards on the ticket, they specifically said, this is not our spin. They put him on there because he's such a good talker and he's won tens of millions of dollars as a trial lawyer talking.

And we fully expect him to attack the vice president. While he's attacking the vice president, the vice president will be talking about attacking the problems of America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Now, the vice president has been preparing for this debate since mid-August. He's been working in his home in Washington regularly on weekends with Congressman Rob Portman. He is somebody who, we are told, has really studied the mannerisms, the style of John Edwards, to help the vice president prepare for tonight's debate.

And aides insist, though, for all of that practice, he has not gone out of his way to prepare a defense for what Cheney aides know will probably be coming up a lot tonight, and that is Halliburton, and the fact that Democrats say that Dick Cheney helped his old firm, Halliburton, get some lucrative Iraq contracts. The vice presidents aides say that there was no need to defend it because he has a very simple answer, that there's no "there" there -- Daryn.

KAGAN: All right. But you are there. Dana Bash in Cleveland. Thank you.

Joe Johns is also there. He is covering the Edwards camp.

Joe, good morning.

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.

Much has been made of the contrast between these two men. They are very different men.

They've spent weeks hammering away at each other on the campaign trail. Cheney, of course, hitting the trial lawyers. John Edwards, of course, hitting Halliburton. Tonight they meet for the first time.

Edwards, of course, arrived here last night. He spent the week in Chautauqua, New York, preparing for this debate. Interestingly enough, it's the same place where President Bill Clinton prepared for his debate in 1996.

Edwards was helped by Washington lawyer Bob Barnett, reprising a role that he played in the year 2000. Edwards, of course, one of his big things he has to do tonight is to persuade the public that he can step in and act as president of the United States if it ever becomes necessary.

The other big thing, of course, is momentum. That is key, because so many people feel, of course, that John Kerry won the first presidential debate. Now there is some since here in this campaign that Edwards needs to at least keep the momentum going. At the same time, they're trying very hard to keep expectations low on the Edwards side as they are in the Cheney side.

Daryn, back to you. KAGAN: Joe Johns and Dana Bash in Cleveland. Thank you.

Let's take a look at our prime-time lineup on CNN. Anderson Cooper will have a special edition, live from Cleveland. That is 7:00 Eastern.

The next hour is our debate preview with Paula Zahn and Wolf Blitzer. Then the presidential debate itself at 9:00 Eastern, 6:00 Pacific.

And don't forget, Friday, the presidential candidates rev up for round two. That one is in St. Louis, Missouri. CNN will have that one for you live, as well.

Now to the fight for Iraq. Insurgents fired mortar rounds in and around Baghdad today. A Reuters report says mortar fire killed one civilian near a passport office.

Two mortars landed near Iraq's oil ministry, but there were no reports of casualties. An Iraqi National Guard member was wounded when troops came under mortar and automatic weapons fire at a bridge on the road to Baghdad.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says he hasn't seen any hard, strong evidence linking Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda. He made the remarks in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations. But then in a statement issued hours later, Rumsfeld backtracked and said his comment was regrettably misunderstood. He then referred to earlier statements in which he said there were ties between Iraq and al Qaeda.

Renewed questions today about whether the U.S. had enough troops in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. The former U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq has said, again, that there were not enough troops on the ground. The Defense Department disputes that.

Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr is tracking that story.

It seems like there's been a lot of backtracking over the last couple days. Barbara, good morning.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Daryn, to say the least, the Pentagon has had its teeth set on edge this morning from the remarks made by Ambassador Paul Bremer, the man who ran the occupation in Iraq who now says that there were not enough troops, that the U.S. paid a price, if you will, for not having enough troops on the grounded to stop the looting once Baghdad fell. The remarks coming in a speech yesterday in West Virginia.

What Mr. Bremer said was, "We paid a big price for not stopping it, the looting, because of it established an atmosphere of lawlessness." Mr. Bremer goes on to say, "We never had enough troops on the ground."

Now, Ambassador Bremer has released a statement saying that those remarks are specifically geared to the timeframe directly after when Baghdad fell and when looting was rampant, that he believed more coalition or Iraqi troops were needed. But Daryn, this is the second time now in recent weeks Ambassador Bremer has made similar source remarks.

At DePaul University in Indiana in September, Mr. Bremer is quoted on the DePaul University Web site as saying, "The single most important change, the one thing that would have improved the situation, would have been having more troops in Iraq at the beginning and throughout. Although I raised this issue a number of times with our government, I should have been more insistent."

Now, here at the Pentagon, officials say Ambassador Bremer, during the time he was in Baghdad, was constantly on the phone with senior officials, that he made many visits back to Washington, and that they have no recollection that Ambassador Bremer raised this issue directly with senior officials. They also say here that Secretary Rumsfeld depends on military commanders for advice. That's who he listened to, and he never got any advice that there needed to be a greater number of U.S. troops -- Daryn.

KAGAN: And Barbara, this brings to mind the comment that General Shinseki made before the war. And what happened to the general, whether he retired or was asked to go, is of some debate out there. But those remarks were considered very controversial at the time.

STARR: It appears, Daryn, some 18 months after the U.S. went to war in Iraq, there is, in fact, an unending debate amongst administration officials themselves and those who have left the administration about whether the U.S. had enough troops in Iraq, enough U.S. troops, enough coalition troops, or enough Iraqi security forces. It seems to still be a matter of great question here in Washington.

KAGAN: Still a lot of talk. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. Thank you.

John Kerry is responding to the Bremer comments. Senator Kerry is holding a town hall meeting at a school in Iowa this morning. We just saw these comments live a few minutes ago here on CNN. The senator used the forum to pounce on the comments by the former civilian administrator to Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Just today -- just today we have learned that America's top official who was responsible for managing the Coalition Provisional Authority has acknowledged two big mistakes. These are the two they've acknowledged.

Number one -- but they're not insignificant -- Paul Bremer, who was running the Coalition Provisional Authority, has admit admitted we didn't deploy enough troops to get the job done. And two, we didn't contain the violence after Saddam Hussein was deposed.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KAGAN: Senator Kerry will head to Denver tonight. He's going to watch the vice presidential debate and begin his prep work for Friday's second match-up with the president. That one taking place in St. Louis.

President Bush has no public events on his schedule today as he prepares for Friday's second debate. He plans what the White House calls a significant speech tomorrow on the war on terrorism.

A sleeping giant is still rumbling. Mount St. Helens lets off a little steam, but is it an indication of bitter -- how about bigger, not bitter -- bigger things to come? Another live debate update is coming up next.

And a former communist regime in East Germany holds no more secrets? Well, think again. All you need to do is look beneath the surface, literally.

And later, what are there now millions more of in the U.S.? Voters. The push to register America is working. What impact could this have on the tight race? We'll look into that coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: Well, right now it's just letting off a little steam. We all need to do that once in a while. But scientists say the activity on Mount St. Helens is probably a preview of a much larger explosion. The volcano gave off two separate bursts of steam and ash yesterday.

Scientists are concerned that molten rock is pushing closer to the surface of the volcano. Joining us with an update from Mount St. Helens, we have geologist Jon Major.

Jon, good morning.

JON MAJOR, GEOLOGIST: Good morning.

KAGAN: How do we know that there is lava or magma up underneath the crust there?

MAJOR: Well, the indication that there's new magma down below primarily comes from the fact that we're picking up these volcanic gases, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide.

KAGAN: And what exactly do we expect to happen and when, which I guess is the big, what, $64,000 question?

MAJOR: That's the $64 million question. The earthquake activity that we've been monitoring continues to clip along at the rate that it has been. We're still getting several earthquakes a minute. They're still in the magnitude 2 to 3 range. So, there's no change in the seismicity. We've got tremendous deformation of the glacier ice in the back half of the lava dome occurring. We've had 150 feet of uplift over the past five days. We're getting volcanic gases that are now coming off and being measured.

So, all indications are there that we're headed for an eruption. Exactly how big it's going to be is a little bit uncertain, and exactly when it's going to occur is really the big question.

KAGAN: So, this is being built up as a big buildup. But is it also possible that she could just say, oh, never mind, just had to kind of blow off some steam there and calm down yet again?

MAJOR: That's entirely possible. In fact, we've estimated that there's perhaps a 20 percent chance of exactly that scenario.

KAGAN: Everyone keeps comparing this to 1980, saying it's not going to be as big. How do we know?

MAJOR: That's right. Well, right now, there's no indication that -- we're not getting earthquakes as large as we had in 1980. The amount of deformation that we're measuring is not near the magnitude of the deformation we got in 1980. So, there's rally no indication that there's anything even remotely the size of what happened in 1980 that's going to happen here.

KAGAN: What about the instrumentation you have this time around? How much more information are you able to get?

MAJOR: Well, we've got more remote instrumentation. Previously, we used to have to measure deformation by actually having a person get out there and do surveying.

Now we've got these -- what we call GPS units, global positioning system units, that were remotely dropped on to the lava dome yesterday. And they're radioing back data that tells us about changes in the lava dome.

KAGAN: And just on a personal note here, as a geologist, how cool is it to get to be there and witness this?

MAJOR: Well, I wouldn't mind seeing something today. This is pretty thrilling.

And you know, we thought that 1980 was a once in a lifetime opportunity. So, maybe we get a little bit of a reprise, a chance to see something not quite as catastrophic, but still thrilling nonetheless.

KAGAN: Well, let's -- here's hoping a little lava makes your day.

MAJOR: Hey, I hope so.

KAGAN: A little lava from here to you. OK. Thank you so much, Jon Major, there at Mount St. Helens. Be safe.

He thought the tornado wrecking his house was the worst of his problems. He was wrong. It's what the twister exposed that got this man in big trouble. That story is coming up next.

And Elton John definitely was not lip-synching when he mouthed off at Madonna. He was not feeling the love for the material girl. We'll tell you what he had to say coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: I want to let you know about some news we're just getting in to us here at CNN. British officials today blocked flu vaccine shipments by a firm that makes half the vaccine that is used here in the U.S.

The British Health Department said the three-month suspension against Chiron Corporation was due to manufacturing problems. Officials would not elaborate.

Chiron produces the Fluvirin vaccine. The company had said that factory tests showed some of the batches of the vaccine may have been contaminated.

A Bush administration official says it's too soon to tell how the British sanction will affect U.S. supplies. We'll talk with Elizabeth Cohen in just a minute more, coming up on "Daily Dose."

Cleanup in Colorado today after a pack of tornadoes swarmed the Denver area. Around a dozen twisters touched down within 40 minutes, damaging several buildings. A waterspout even skimmed a lake in Adams County.

And in Maryland, a man whose house was damaged by a tornado is sitting in jail today. Repair workers say they found a large amount of child pornography in the storm wreckage. Police say the material filled two dozen boxes.

Twenty-two minutes past the hour. Let's check in on weather.

(WEATHER REPORT)

KAGAN: Here's what's making news overseas in this morning's "World Wrap."

Officials in Afghanistan are putting a massive security force in place for Saturday's presidential election. Eighteen thousand coalition troops, more than 17,000 national army troops and 25,000 police are part of the security force.

The Israeli military offensive into Gaza have entered its seventh day. Sources say that officials from the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli military were meeting, seeking an end to the operation. But the Israeli military says no negotiations are underway.

Israel says it's responding to a rocket attack that killed two children. Nearly 80 Palestinians have died in the fighting.

A secret bunker has been discovered beneath a former East German government building in Berlin. It measures about 72 by 32 feet. It was designed to hold 150 people. Officials say the bunker was complete with a backup electrical system, sanitary installations and a ventilation system.

Well, Elton John has been on a roll, and he is at it again. Last month, you might remember, he railed against photographers in Taiwan, calling them vile pigs. Now, Sir Elton is taking aim at Madonna.

It was at London's "Q" Awards. Elton John made fun of Madonna's nomination for best live act, saying that she doesn't deserve it because she doesn't actually sing live.

He went on to say, anyone who lip-synchs during a show should be shot. Those were his words, not ours, we would like to note.

Madonna doesn't seem to be taking the comment too seriously. She says she really does sing on stage and wants Elton to know that he is still on her Christmas card list. But don't expect him to apologize. Why not? Because sorry seems to be the hardest word.

Yes, I said it. OK. Write that down for the pun list today.

OK, the call is going out and being answered by millions. Why are so many people registering to vote? And is there already an indication of which way it might sway the election? Rock the Vote joins us, coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired October 5, 2004 - 11:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: It is exactly 11:00 a.m. on the east coast, 8:00 a.m. on the west. And from CNN Center in Atlanta, Georgia, good morning once again. I'm Daryn Kagan.
Let's get started this hour by looking at the vice presidential debate. Their style couldn't be more different on substance, they are worlds apart. Of course, we're talking about Dick Cheney and John Edwards. They will be face to face for 90 minutes tonight in Cleveland, Ohio. With the election four weeks from today, their job will be to sway critical swing voters to their ticket.

Our Dana Bash is covering the vice president. Joe Johns is with Senator Edwards.

Dana, you go first. Dana, good morning.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning again, Daryn.

Well, they won't say so publicly, but certainly Republicans are hoping that the vice president can regain some of the momentum perhaps the president lost after last week's debate that disappointed some Republicans, even.

And the vice president's aides say that his strategy is quite simple, to try to mirror what he does as he campaigns across the country, which is to defend and promote the president's policies and also to attack the Democrats as weak on defense and as liberals ready to raise taxes.

But there is one word that sums up what Cheney advisors will hear, that they hope voters will hear and see, which is experience. They hope that people will understand that in a post-9/11 world, as Cheney advisors say, the vice president, that role actually matters.

And they question, who would you rather have in that particular position, somebody with five years of experience in Washington, like Senator Edwards, or somebody with 40? However, they are trying to raise expectations for John Edwards in another area, and that is his style.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARY MATALIN, BUSH CAMPAIGN SR. ADVISOR: They think they have some pretty good and glib talkers. When they put Senator Edwards on the ticket, they specifically said, this is not our spin. They put him on there because he's such a good talker and he's won tens of millions of dollars as a trial lawyer talking.

And we fully expect him to attack the vice president. While he's attacking the vice president, the vice president will be talking about attacking the problems of America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Now, the vice president has been preparing for this debate since mid-August. He's been working in his home in Washington regularly on weekends with Congressman Rob Portman. He is somebody who, we are told, has really studied the mannerisms, the style of John Edwards, to help the vice president prepare for tonight's debate.

And aides insist, though, for all of that practice, he has not gone out of his way to prepare a defense for what Cheney aides know will probably be coming up a lot tonight, and that is Halliburton, and the fact that Democrats say that Dick Cheney helped his old firm, Halliburton, get some lucrative Iraq contracts. The vice presidents aides say that there was no need to defend it because he has a very simple answer, that there's no "there" there -- Daryn.

KAGAN: All right. But you are there. Dana Bash in Cleveland. Thank you.

Joe Johns is also there. He is covering the Edwards camp.

Joe, good morning.

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.

Much has been made of the contrast between these two men. They are very different men.

They've spent weeks hammering away at each other on the campaign trail. Cheney, of course, hitting the trial lawyers. John Edwards, of course, hitting Halliburton. Tonight they meet for the first time.

Edwards, of course, arrived here last night. He spent the week in Chautauqua, New York, preparing for this debate. Interestingly enough, it's the same place where President Bill Clinton prepared for his debate in 1996.

Edwards was helped by Washington lawyer Bob Barnett, reprising a role that he played in the year 2000. Edwards, of course, one of his big things he has to do tonight is to persuade the public that he can step in and act as president of the United States if it ever becomes necessary.

The other big thing, of course, is momentum. That is key, because so many people feel, of course, that John Kerry won the first presidential debate. Now there is some since here in this campaign that Edwards needs to at least keep the momentum going. At the same time, they're trying very hard to keep expectations low on the Edwards side as they are in the Cheney side.

Daryn, back to you. KAGAN: Joe Johns and Dana Bash in Cleveland. Thank you.

Let's take a look at our prime-time lineup on CNN. Anderson Cooper will have a special edition, live from Cleveland. That is 7:00 Eastern.

The next hour is our debate preview with Paula Zahn and Wolf Blitzer. Then the presidential debate itself at 9:00 Eastern, 6:00 Pacific.

And don't forget, Friday, the presidential candidates rev up for round two. That one is in St. Louis, Missouri. CNN will have that one for you live, as well.

Now to the fight for Iraq. Insurgents fired mortar rounds in and around Baghdad today. A Reuters report says mortar fire killed one civilian near a passport office.

Two mortars landed near Iraq's oil ministry, but there were no reports of casualties. An Iraqi National Guard member was wounded when troops came under mortar and automatic weapons fire at a bridge on the road to Baghdad.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says he hasn't seen any hard, strong evidence linking Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda. He made the remarks in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations. But then in a statement issued hours later, Rumsfeld backtracked and said his comment was regrettably misunderstood. He then referred to earlier statements in which he said there were ties between Iraq and al Qaeda.

Renewed questions today about whether the U.S. had enough troops in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. The former U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq has said, again, that there were not enough troops on the ground. The Defense Department disputes that.

Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr is tracking that story.

It seems like there's been a lot of backtracking over the last couple days. Barbara, good morning.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Daryn, to say the least, the Pentagon has had its teeth set on edge this morning from the remarks made by Ambassador Paul Bremer, the man who ran the occupation in Iraq who now says that there were not enough troops, that the U.S. paid a price, if you will, for not having enough troops on the grounded to stop the looting once Baghdad fell. The remarks coming in a speech yesterday in West Virginia.

What Mr. Bremer said was, "We paid a big price for not stopping it, the looting, because of it established an atmosphere of lawlessness." Mr. Bremer goes on to say, "We never had enough troops on the ground."

Now, Ambassador Bremer has released a statement saying that those remarks are specifically geared to the timeframe directly after when Baghdad fell and when looting was rampant, that he believed more coalition or Iraqi troops were needed. But Daryn, this is the second time now in recent weeks Ambassador Bremer has made similar source remarks.

At DePaul University in Indiana in September, Mr. Bremer is quoted on the DePaul University Web site as saying, "The single most important change, the one thing that would have improved the situation, would have been having more troops in Iraq at the beginning and throughout. Although I raised this issue a number of times with our government, I should have been more insistent."

Now, here at the Pentagon, officials say Ambassador Bremer, during the time he was in Baghdad, was constantly on the phone with senior officials, that he made many visits back to Washington, and that they have no recollection that Ambassador Bremer raised this issue directly with senior officials. They also say here that Secretary Rumsfeld depends on military commanders for advice. That's who he listened to, and he never got any advice that there needed to be a greater number of U.S. troops -- Daryn.

KAGAN: And Barbara, this brings to mind the comment that General Shinseki made before the war. And what happened to the general, whether he retired or was asked to go, is of some debate out there. But those remarks were considered very controversial at the time.

STARR: It appears, Daryn, some 18 months after the U.S. went to war in Iraq, there is, in fact, an unending debate amongst administration officials themselves and those who have left the administration about whether the U.S. had enough troops in Iraq, enough U.S. troops, enough coalition troops, or enough Iraqi security forces. It seems to still be a matter of great question here in Washington.

KAGAN: Still a lot of talk. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. Thank you.

John Kerry is responding to the Bremer comments. Senator Kerry is holding a town hall meeting at a school in Iowa this morning. We just saw these comments live a few minutes ago here on CNN. The senator used the forum to pounce on the comments by the former civilian administrator to Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Just today -- just today we have learned that America's top official who was responsible for managing the Coalition Provisional Authority has acknowledged two big mistakes. These are the two they've acknowledged.

Number one -- but they're not insignificant -- Paul Bremer, who was running the Coalition Provisional Authority, has admit admitted we didn't deploy enough troops to get the job done. And two, we didn't contain the violence after Saddam Hussein was deposed.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KAGAN: Senator Kerry will head to Denver tonight. He's going to watch the vice presidential debate and begin his prep work for Friday's second match-up with the president. That one taking place in St. Louis.

President Bush has no public events on his schedule today as he prepares for Friday's second debate. He plans what the White House calls a significant speech tomorrow on the war on terrorism.

A sleeping giant is still rumbling. Mount St. Helens lets off a little steam, but is it an indication of bitter -- how about bigger, not bitter -- bigger things to come? Another live debate update is coming up next.

And a former communist regime in East Germany holds no more secrets? Well, think again. All you need to do is look beneath the surface, literally.

And later, what are there now millions more of in the U.S.? Voters. The push to register America is working. What impact could this have on the tight race? We'll look into that coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: Well, right now it's just letting off a little steam. We all need to do that once in a while. But scientists say the activity on Mount St. Helens is probably a preview of a much larger explosion. The volcano gave off two separate bursts of steam and ash yesterday.

Scientists are concerned that molten rock is pushing closer to the surface of the volcano. Joining us with an update from Mount St. Helens, we have geologist Jon Major.

Jon, good morning.

JON MAJOR, GEOLOGIST: Good morning.

KAGAN: How do we know that there is lava or magma up underneath the crust there?

MAJOR: Well, the indication that there's new magma down below primarily comes from the fact that we're picking up these volcanic gases, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide.

KAGAN: And what exactly do we expect to happen and when, which I guess is the big, what, $64,000 question?

MAJOR: That's the $64 million question. The earthquake activity that we've been monitoring continues to clip along at the rate that it has been. We're still getting several earthquakes a minute. They're still in the magnitude 2 to 3 range. So, there's no change in the seismicity. We've got tremendous deformation of the glacier ice in the back half of the lava dome occurring. We've had 150 feet of uplift over the past five days. We're getting volcanic gases that are now coming off and being measured.

So, all indications are there that we're headed for an eruption. Exactly how big it's going to be is a little bit uncertain, and exactly when it's going to occur is really the big question.

KAGAN: So, this is being built up as a big buildup. But is it also possible that she could just say, oh, never mind, just had to kind of blow off some steam there and calm down yet again?

MAJOR: That's entirely possible. In fact, we've estimated that there's perhaps a 20 percent chance of exactly that scenario.

KAGAN: Everyone keeps comparing this to 1980, saying it's not going to be as big. How do we know?

MAJOR: That's right. Well, right now, there's no indication that -- we're not getting earthquakes as large as we had in 1980. The amount of deformation that we're measuring is not near the magnitude of the deformation we got in 1980. So, there's rally no indication that there's anything even remotely the size of what happened in 1980 that's going to happen here.

KAGAN: What about the instrumentation you have this time around? How much more information are you able to get?

MAJOR: Well, we've got more remote instrumentation. Previously, we used to have to measure deformation by actually having a person get out there and do surveying.

Now we've got these -- what we call GPS units, global positioning system units, that were remotely dropped on to the lava dome yesterday. And they're radioing back data that tells us about changes in the lava dome.

KAGAN: And just on a personal note here, as a geologist, how cool is it to get to be there and witness this?

MAJOR: Well, I wouldn't mind seeing something today. This is pretty thrilling.

And you know, we thought that 1980 was a once in a lifetime opportunity. So, maybe we get a little bit of a reprise, a chance to see something not quite as catastrophic, but still thrilling nonetheless.

KAGAN: Well, let's -- here's hoping a little lava makes your day.

MAJOR: Hey, I hope so.

KAGAN: A little lava from here to you. OK. Thank you so much, Jon Major, there at Mount St. Helens. Be safe.

He thought the tornado wrecking his house was the worst of his problems. He was wrong. It's what the twister exposed that got this man in big trouble. That story is coming up next.

And Elton John definitely was not lip-synching when he mouthed off at Madonna. He was not feeling the love for the material girl. We'll tell you what he had to say coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: I want to let you know about some news we're just getting in to us here at CNN. British officials today blocked flu vaccine shipments by a firm that makes half the vaccine that is used here in the U.S.

The British Health Department said the three-month suspension against Chiron Corporation was due to manufacturing problems. Officials would not elaborate.

Chiron produces the Fluvirin vaccine. The company had said that factory tests showed some of the batches of the vaccine may have been contaminated.

A Bush administration official says it's too soon to tell how the British sanction will affect U.S. supplies. We'll talk with Elizabeth Cohen in just a minute more, coming up on "Daily Dose."

Cleanup in Colorado today after a pack of tornadoes swarmed the Denver area. Around a dozen twisters touched down within 40 minutes, damaging several buildings. A waterspout even skimmed a lake in Adams County.

And in Maryland, a man whose house was damaged by a tornado is sitting in jail today. Repair workers say they found a large amount of child pornography in the storm wreckage. Police say the material filled two dozen boxes.

Twenty-two minutes past the hour. Let's check in on weather.

(WEATHER REPORT)

KAGAN: Here's what's making news overseas in this morning's "World Wrap."

Officials in Afghanistan are putting a massive security force in place for Saturday's presidential election. Eighteen thousand coalition troops, more than 17,000 national army troops and 25,000 police are part of the security force.

The Israeli military offensive into Gaza have entered its seventh day. Sources say that officials from the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli military were meeting, seeking an end to the operation. But the Israeli military says no negotiations are underway.

Israel says it's responding to a rocket attack that killed two children. Nearly 80 Palestinians have died in the fighting.

A secret bunker has been discovered beneath a former East German government building in Berlin. It measures about 72 by 32 feet. It was designed to hold 150 people. Officials say the bunker was complete with a backup electrical system, sanitary installations and a ventilation system.

Well, Elton John has been on a roll, and he is at it again. Last month, you might remember, he railed against photographers in Taiwan, calling them vile pigs. Now, Sir Elton is taking aim at Madonna.

It was at London's "Q" Awards. Elton John made fun of Madonna's nomination for best live act, saying that she doesn't deserve it because she doesn't actually sing live.

He went on to say, anyone who lip-synchs during a show should be shot. Those were his words, not ours, we would like to note.

Madonna doesn't seem to be taking the comment too seriously. She says she really does sing on stage and wants Elton to know that he is still on her Christmas card list. But don't expect him to apologize. Why not? Because sorry seems to be the hardest word.

Yes, I said it. OK. Write that down for the pun list today.

OK, the call is going out and being answered by millions. Why are so many people registering to vote? And is there already an indication of which way it might sway the election? Rock the Vote joins us, coming up next.

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