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CNN Live Today
Bombs in Baghdad; Warning to the U.S.; Congress Reacts
Aired April 29, 2005 - 10:59 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's go ahead and take a look at what's happening "Now in the News."
A wave of bombings killed at least two dozen people and wounded nearly 100 in Iraq today. Authorities say 11 bombs exploded over a three-hour period.
The violence comes as a purported message from terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi surfaces. The message calls for insurgents to keep up their attacks on U.S. forces.
Here in the U.S., NASA delays the launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery until July due to safety concerns. The NASA administrator made the official announcement in a news conference just a half-hour ago. Officials are concerned about the shuttle's external fuel tank and the risk of falling debris.
President Bush is on the road this morning trying to sell his Social Security plan. He's attending an event in Falls Church, Virginia, that began last hour. During a news conference last night, the president proposed a plan where benefits for lower-income workers would increase faster than for wealthier ones.
Congress approved a $2.6 trillion budget blueprint. The budget outline includes $70 billion in tax cuts, $35 billion in spending cuts over the next five years. Most of those cuts would be from Medicaid. Lawmakers will use the budget blueprint to draft the individual spending bills.
Checking the clock, it's 11:00 a.m. on the East Coast, for those of you on the West, it's 8:00 a.m.
From the CNN Center in Atlanta, good morning once again. I'm Daryn Kagan.
Let's get started this hour in Iraq.
A wave of bombings, 11 in all, killing at least a dozen -- two dozen people, in fact, today. Most of the attacks were in Baghdad. Most were car bombs.
The spasm of violence came with a message for President Bush. It's said to be from insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
Our Ryan Chilcote this morning covering all this today from Baghdad. He filed this late report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we start with this audiotape purportedly from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi that had surfaced on two different Internet sites. We can't verify the authenticity of this tape. However, several analysts that follow these kinds of messages, study these kinds of messages say they believe it's authentic.
In any case, the speaker on the tape making a reference to the month of March of this year as being the time when this recording was made. Also, the speaker on the tape appealing to insurgents in Iraq to keep up their attacks on both U.S. and Iraqi forces here.
We've clearly seen a lot of that today. A lot of attacks in Baghdad alone.
We start in eastern Baghdad. A dramatic attack there. A double bombing.
One car bomb going off. And then as a Reuters crew begins to film, a second car bomb going off. Thankfully, that crew was OK. However, one Iraqi civilian was killed, eight Iraqi policemen wounded.
That was, however, just one of 11 bombings in Baghdad this morning before noon. The targets in all of those cases, according to the Iraqi police, Iraq's security forces. Iraqi police telling us that at least two dozen people have been killed in those attacks, about 100 wounded.
Now, the U.S. military says this is just a desperate attempt by the insurgents, by the terrorists to try and discredit Iraq's new government. Of course Iraq's new government was formed just yesterday.
We also know this is a longstanding tactic from the insurgents to try and intimidate Iraqis, to try and discourage them from joining Iraqi security forces. Meanwhile, the U.S. military saying they are not having very much luck in that. They say Iraqis are continuing to be recruited into Iraqi security forces. Those numbers continue to be up.
Ryan Chilcote, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KAGAN: The U.S. revealed this week that it came close to capturing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in February. In the tape that's attributed to him today, the terror leader vows he will never give up. Bear in mind, no way to actually be certain the speaker is al-Zarqawi.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): Dear brothers, be patient. It is only a matter of a few days you will be the ultimate winners either by way of martyrdom or victory.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
KAGAN: Let's talk more about the reported al-Zarqawi message.
Octavia Nasr, our senior editor for Arab affairs.
Always good to have you here on these days.
OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SR. EDITOR, ARAB AFFAIRS: Thanks for having me.
KAGAN: Actually, all days, but today in particular.
Not completely confirmed that it is Zarqawi. And yet it looks pretty certain that it is.
NASR: It does. It sounds very much like him. Our experts who are very familiar with his voice, including myself, we can say that it sounds very much like him.
Also, the presentation. This is an audiotape that was posted on an Islamist Web site. It bears the same marks as previous tapes from Zarqawi.
It starts with an introduction: "The Media Section of the al Qaeda in Iraq Presents." They have a title for the presentation. They call it "Strength." Strength. He is calling on his supporters to keep up their strength and their fight, as we have been mentioning earlier.
It does sound like him. Is it him? We are no voice experts. We will let the experts decide that.
KAGAN: Meanwhile, what do we hear in the tape in terms of clues and upcoming attacks, plans, targets he might have of U.S. attacks?
NASR: It seems that he is calling on his supporters to step up the suicide bombing attacks, specifically against convoys and checkpoints. He said that very clearly on the tape.
He does rally the troops, if you will, by telling them that the "U.S. is trying to negotiate with you only because you've shown them that you are strong and you have defeated them." So basically, he is -- he is addressing that one point.
We've been reporting that there were several attempts to talk to the insurgents, especially the moderates of the insurgency in Iraq. So basically, he is calling on them, saying, don't you be fooled.
He calls it a "satanic ruse." He said, "They are just not truthful, they don't want your good, and I do," he says. And basically, just "Keep up the attacks, and you will be" -- in that sound bite that we just heard, it's interesting that he tells them, "Just keep up the good work," as he calls it, "because martyrdom or victory is on the way."
So he's certainly not promising is supporters any victory anytime soon. He is telling them that there could be martyrdom at the end.
KAGAN: Quite a promise. Any clues -- we were talking about the story that the U.S. said they almost caught him the month before this tape was allegedly made. But it doesn't sound like he makes any reference to a quick getaway.
NASR: No, he doesn't reference that. He does reference a "Washington Post" article, which makes you wonder whether he is reading "The Washington Post" or if someone briefed him on that.
The report -- the article that he mentions was written March 19, or it was published March 19. And he does say in his presentation that it was -- it was published March 19, this month. So at least we can tell from this that between March 19 and the end of March, if this indeed is Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, he was alive during that period.
KAGAN: All right. Octavia Nasr, thank you for the context.
NASR: Any time.
KAGAN: Appreciate it.
President Bush says the U.S. is making progress in Iraq despite the continuing violence. That was just one of the issues the president addressed in a rare primetime news conference.
Our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux, was there last night. And she joins us this morning.
Suzanne, good morning.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
Well, really an attempt to shift the debate. The president is pivoting from talking about Social Security's problems to some of the solutions.
At this hour, he is before a group of supporters in Falls Church, Virginia, talking about a plan that he is embracing, a plan that he says will protect the lowest-income workers, those workers who perhaps would depend entirely after they retire on their Social Security check. But this plan also as well means that much of the middle class and the upper class would bear much of the burden for making up that shortfall, that their benefits would decrease.
Now, Mr. Bush says that this plan, plus the creation of those private investment accounts, he believes would make up for about 70 percent of the shortfall.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think the country needs to set this goal for future generations that if you have worked all your life and paid into the Social Security system, you will not retire into poverty. And there's a way to make that happen, and that is to have the benefits for low-income workers in a future system grow faster than benefits for those who are better off.
If Congress were to enact that, that would go a long way toward making the system solvent for a younger generation of Americans. I have a duty to put ideas on the table. I'm putting' them on the table. And I expect Republicans and Democrats to do the same kind of thing, and so do the American people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, it was last night that President Bush announced that challenge to both Republicans and Democrats. What is his plan exactly? It's called progressive indexing.
It simply means that if you are a lower-income worker, that your benefits are basically set on wages. If you are an upper-income worker, that your benefits would be set on inflation, that you would get less benefits than those who are in the lower-income bracket.
Those who are middle class, the majority of Americans, it would be a new formula that would be applied as well for benefits using a mix of wages and inflation to determine what your benefits are.
Overall, what does this mean? It means that lower-income workers would be shielded from much of the burden to make up for the shortfall for Social Security, while middle and upper income would basically shoulder much of the burden.
The president also, of course, issuing a challenge to Democrats and Republicans, saying, OK, here's my plan, this will cover 70 percent of the shortfall. What do you have for the other 30 percent? What are your ideas?
Some of the things the White House is considering is raising the retirement age, as well as the payroll cap -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Suzanne Malveaux at the White House. Thank you.
Let's check now on how the president's remarks are playing on Capitol Hill. Congressional correspondent Ed Henry joining me now from Washington with reaction from both sides of the aisle.
Ed, good morning.
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
That's right, there's a brick wall of opposition from Democrats. That's not a shock. They are basically saying that they feel the president made a mistake by once again pushing hard last night for these private accounts.
They say the public's not buying it yet. And they say that they are going to be too costly. And Democrats also taking shots of the fact that they believe the president said last night that he is basically going to use benefit cuts to pay for the transition costs of those private accounts. As for the Republicans, right now House Ways and Means chairman, Bill Thomas, a very powerful player in this debate, that committee will be actually writing the legislation. He just announced at this press conference that is happening right now that on May 12 he will start a series of hearings on Social Security, one a week throughout the summer, to get this bill going.
In terms of actual reaction to the president's news conference last night, Republicans like House Speaker Dennis Hastert, they put out statements last night saying they applaud the president for being courageous, putting this issue on the table, and continuing to fight, despite the fact that there's no clear consensus yet. But people like Hastert are clearly not endorsing the president's plan yet. And that has to do a lot with politics.
They know the president is a lame duck, he doesn't have to face the voters again. But House and Senate Republicans will have to face the voters next year.
They know the polls show the public is not sold on this yet. And that's a point that House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi seized upon yesterday even before the president made his latest sales pitch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: What I am hoping the president tonight will say about Social Security and his privatization plan is, uncle. This is -- this is really -- you know, 60 days, Sunday is at the 60th anniversary -- 60th day of a 60-city tour. I think it's been a dismal failure.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: The Republican response is of course the president is not going to say, "Uncle." In fact, Republicans on the Hill think the best weapon they have in this fight is the president.
He has proven before that in these tough fights, he will not give up regardless of where the public polls are. And the Republicans also saying this morning Democrats have still not put a plan of their own on the table.
And Republican Senate Finance chairman Chuck Grassley last night -- he's the counterpart to Bill Thomas over in the Senate -- he will be writing the legislation in the Senate. And he said it's time for leaders in both parties to stop talking about the next election and, instead, focus on the next generation.
That's hard to do, though, right now in this politically-charged climate -- Daryn.
KAGAN: OK. For the Ed Henry question of the day, we're going to switch topics here. Give us an update on what's happening with the battle over judicial nominees.
HENRY: Well, right there in a microcosm you can see why the Social Security legislation has not really moved very far so far, why the energy bill is tied up. There's a lot of wrangling, and it has to do in part with the so-called nuclear option.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist yesterday put forth a compromise proposal to try to end this standoff. The nuclear option is basically a Republican idea to overturn Senate rules, change Senate rules to stop filibusters of judicial nominees.
He put forth this proposal. Immediately, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said he believes the proposal is a big, fat, wet kiss to the right. Obviously a direct, blunt assessment from the Democrats.
And it shows that even as each side -- the Democrats earlier this week tried to put forth a compromise that was rejected by the Republicans as well. Both sides trying to compromise on that issue of judicial nominations. But no compromise in sight.
They're rejecting it right away. And they very likely are headed for what everyone up here is calling a nuclear war on judicial nominations. And that's very clear that that's part of the reason why there's a lot of gridlock -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Ed Henry on Capitol Hill. Thank you. Actually, you're in our D.C. bureau today. Wherever you are, you're doing a great job. Thank you, Ed.
Severe weather brewing across the Southeast this morning. Arkansas in the storm's path. Residents getting ready for the worst because they have been there before. Boy, have they ever.
We'll get a live report from Little Rock just ahead.
And more damaging testimony in the Michael Jackson case. This time, though, for the prosecution. The singer's ex-wife once again got on the stand, started handing out surprises.
Plus, he is considered one of the great minds in Major League Baseball. Just how does he do it? And why does he allow unprecedented access to a writer? St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa joins me live right here in the studio.
All that ahead in this hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(STOCK MARKET REPORT)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KAGAN: Memphis, Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Little Rock, you could see an outbreak of severe spring weather this afternoon. Beware.
Our correspondent Chris Lawrence is in Little Rock.
Chris, good morning. CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
Now, right now, that storm is sitting just north of Interstate 40. And it's moving our way pretty quickly. And the folks here at the National Weather Service have been tracking it literally minute by minute.
And when they tell people to prepare for dangerous weather, a lot of us think of boarding up windows, or even tying things down. But when you've survived a tornado, when you have literally been lifted out of your own home, like some of the folks here in Arkansas have, it can just be a matter of coming to grips with the idea that, this can happen again.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE (voice-over): Nobody that lived through them will ever forget those Arkansas tornadoes in 1999.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There's a tornado right out my back door! You can see it! Oh, my god! Oh!
LAWRENCE: Donald Ward was the mayor of Beebe, Arkansas. He survived the night in a bathtub, huddled over his wife and kids.
MAYOR DONALD WARD, BEEBE, ARKANSAS: The shower tub combination tore loose, and literally the tornado drug us for 40 feet into the back yard.
LAWRENCE: And when they climbed out, everything was gone.
CARLA WARD, MAYOR'S WIFE: But thank god, he brought us through. It's only by the miracle of god that we made it.
LAWRENCE (on camera): Six years ago, your wife sounded like she was thankful just to be alive. Do you get scared now?
D. WARD: There's fear. I have to be honest with you.
When I hear severe weather, I become excited, tense. I can close my eyes right now in talking to you, and I can be vividly back in my home. I can still have -- feel debris hitting my face. But then again, I come back and say, hey, god took care of us that night, he'll take care of us again.
LAWRENCE (voice-over): The deadly tornado destroyed dozen of homes, as well as churches and schools. The town had to rebuild from scratch. But these new schools have reinforced everything, including a shelter lined with 10 inches of concrete.
KEITH WILLIAMS, BEEBE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT: After watching it built, I would have no reservations at all being in this building and being safe with a tornado going right over it.
LAWRENCE: But as confident as folks sound, no one here really wants to put that to the test. (END VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE: And when kids aren't in school, that shelter is open to the public and can fit about 1,500 people in side. That's important, because according to Chris Benano (ph) and some of the latest radar that we can take a look at here, the greatest possibility for the tornadoes is going to come later this afternoon, early evening, when the kids are already home from school, probably in the southeastern corner of the state.
But already, we've heard people calling in here all morning, reporting hail about the size of a quarter. A couple times even people saying, "Hey, I've seen hail as big as a golf ball out there already" -- Daryn.
KAGAN: All the more reason that we're glad you're indoors for that live report. Chris Lawrence from Little Rock. Thank you.
Let's get a better look at the weather. Bob Van Dillen giving us a check.
(WEATHER REPORT)
KAGAN: Frightening situation at an elementary school in Pennsylvania. A student pricks other students with a needle. One of the children is HIV positive. What are the risks? Dr. Sanjay Gupta will explain.
Plus, is it OK to cheat in your marriage? Most Americans say absolutely no way. But what do they say? A preview of "CNN PRESENTS: Infidelity" is ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KAGAN: Parents at a Philadelphia elementary school are on edge after a prank causes an HIV scare. Authorities say a third-grader brought her mother's diabetic testing needle to school and stuck more than a dozen students.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's the same needle that they poked on every one of the 14 kids. And one of the kids that was poked is HIV positive.
MIKE GONZALEZ, PARENT: This is something that is not to be played with. You've got now little kids that are in danger.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAGAN: Health officials say the student who tested positive for HIV could not have been affected from being stuck on Wednesday. Other parents, though, are worried their children may have been exposed to the virus.
So, just how worried should those parents in Philadelphia be? Senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta examines the risk of contracting HIV from a needle.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SR. MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: The third- grader actually brought this needle from home. And subsequently, 19 students got poked.
One of the students was revealed to be HIV positive. Unclear whether or not that student actually had the positive test after this poking incidence or was already known to have a positive HIV test.
Regardless, though, statistics definitely very much on these students' side. There has never been a case outside a hospital of someone getting an accidental stick and subsequently contracting HIV.
Even within hospital settings, the number is very, very low. About three in 1,000 likelihood of someone actually having a positive HIV test.
Typically what happens, it goes down something like this: you develop antibodies to the HIV virus, and that's actually what you are testing for. So what happens -- and here's the rub -- is that you have to get tested for several months, end on end, to try and make sure that you don't actually develop any of these antibodies. It is likely these students will have to get tests every month for at least three months to make sure they don't develop the HIV antibodies.
Also, prophylactically, a lot of times medications are simply given. Even though the HIV is not proven to be there, medications are given to try and reduce the likelihood of transmission even further.
The numbers, again, three in a thousand in health care settings. That's when a significant contamination has occurred. A large syringe full of blood, for example.
In this case, we are talking about a very small-borne needle. And then after you give the medications, you reduce the chances by 80 percent. So reducing it to the likelihood of just one in a thousand, perhaps not even that high.
That's what's going to be done for these children now. Obviously time will tell. But again, statistics on their side.
We'll certainly keep you posted as details develop. Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KAGAN: In the Michael Jackson trial, more surprises from the prosecution from the singer's ex-wife. What did she say this time? CNN senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin joins me when CNN LIVE TODAY returns.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired April 29, 2005 - 10:59 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's go ahead and take a look at what's happening "Now in the News."
A wave of bombings killed at least two dozen people and wounded nearly 100 in Iraq today. Authorities say 11 bombs exploded over a three-hour period.
The violence comes as a purported message from terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi surfaces. The message calls for insurgents to keep up their attacks on U.S. forces.
Here in the U.S., NASA delays the launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery until July due to safety concerns. The NASA administrator made the official announcement in a news conference just a half-hour ago. Officials are concerned about the shuttle's external fuel tank and the risk of falling debris.
President Bush is on the road this morning trying to sell his Social Security plan. He's attending an event in Falls Church, Virginia, that began last hour. During a news conference last night, the president proposed a plan where benefits for lower-income workers would increase faster than for wealthier ones.
Congress approved a $2.6 trillion budget blueprint. The budget outline includes $70 billion in tax cuts, $35 billion in spending cuts over the next five years. Most of those cuts would be from Medicaid. Lawmakers will use the budget blueprint to draft the individual spending bills.
Checking the clock, it's 11:00 a.m. on the East Coast, for those of you on the West, it's 8:00 a.m.
From the CNN Center in Atlanta, good morning once again. I'm Daryn Kagan.
Let's get started this hour in Iraq.
A wave of bombings, 11 in all, killing at least a dozen -- two dozen people, in fact, today. Most of the attacks were in Baghdad. Most were car bombs.
The spasm of violence came with a message for President Bush. It's said to be from insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
Our Ryan Chilcote this morning covering all this today from Baghdad. He filed this late report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we start with this audiotape purportedly from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi that had surfaced on two different Internet sites. We can't verify the authenticity of this tape. However, several analysts that follow these kinds of messages, study these kinds of messages say they believe it's authentic.
In any case, the speaker on the tape making a reference to the month of March of this year as being the time when this recording was made. Also, the speaker on the tape appealing to insurgents in Iraq to keep up their attacks on both U.S. and Iraqi forces here.
We've clearly seen a lot of that today. A lot of attacks in Baghdad alone.
We start in eastern Baghdad. A dramatic attack there. A double bombing.
One car bomb going off. And then as a Reuters crew begins to film, a second car bomb going off. Thankfully, that crew was OK. However, one Iraqi civilian was killed, eight Iraqi policemen wounded.
That was, however, just one of 11 bombings in Baghdad this morning before noon. The targets in all of those cases, according to the Iraqi police, Iraq's security forces. Iraqi police telling us that at least two dozen people have been killed in those attacks, about 100 wounded.
Now, the U.S. military says this is just a desperate attempt by the insurgents, by the terrorists to try and discredit Iraq's new government. Of course Iraq's new government was formed just yesterday.
We also know this is a longstanding tactic from the insurgents to try and intimidate Iraqis, to try and discourage them from joining Iraqi security forces. Meanwhile, the U.S. military saying they are not having very much luck in that. They say Iraqis are continuing to be recruited into Iraqi security forces. Those numbers continue to be up.
Ryan Chilcote, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KAGAN: The U.S. revealed this week that it came close to capturing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in February. In the tape that's attributed to him today, the terror leader vows he will never give up. Bear in mind, no way to actually be certain the speaker is al-Zarqawi.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): Dear brothers, be patient. It is only a matter of a few days you will be the ultimate winners either by way of martyrdom or victory.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
KAGAN: Let's talk more about the reported al-Zarqawi message.
Octavia Nasr, our senior editor for Arab affairs.
Always good to have you here on these days.
OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SR. EDITOR, ARAB AFFAIRS: Thanks for having me.
KAGAN: Actually, all days, but today in particular.
Not completely confirmed that it is Zarqawi. And yet it looks pretty certain that it is.
NASR: It does. It sounds very much like him. Our experts who are very familiar with his voice, including myself, we can say that it sounds very much like him.
Also, the presentation. This is an audiotape that was posted on an Islamist Web site. It bears the same marks as previous tapes from Zarqawi.
It starts with an introduction: "The Media Section of the al Qaeda in Iraq Presents." They have a title for the presentation. They call it "Strength." Strength. He is calling on his supporters to keep up their strength and their fight, as we have been mentioning earlier.
It does sound like him. Is it him? We are no voice experts. We will let the experts decide that.
KAGAN: Meanwhile, what do we hear in the tape in terms of clues and upcoming attacks, plans, targets he might have of U.S. attacks?
NASR: It seems that he is calling on his supporters to step up the suicide bombing attacks, specifically against convoys and checkpoints. He said that very clearly on the tape.
He does rally the troops, if you will, by telling them that the "U.S. is trying to negotiate with you only because you've shown them that you are strong and you have defeated them." So basically, he is -- he is addressing that one point.
We've been reporting that there were several attempts to talk to the insurgents, especially the moderates of the insurgency in Iraq. So basically, he is calling on them, saying, don't you be fooled.
He calls it a "satanic ruse." He said, "They are just not truthful, they don't want your good, and I do," he says. And basically, just "Keep up the attacks, and you will be" -- in that sound bite that we just heard, it's interesting that he tells them, "Just keep up the good work," as he calls it, "because martyrdom or victory is on the way."
So he's certainly not promising is supporters any victory anytime soon. He is telling them that there could be martyrdom at the end.
KAGAN: Quite a promise. Any clues -- we were talking about the story that the U.S. said they almost caught him the month before this tape was allegedly made. But it doesn't sound like he makes any reference to a quick getaway.
NASR: No, he doesn't reference that. He does reference a "Washington Post" article, which makes you wonder whether he is reading "The Washington Post" or if someone briefed him on that.
The report -- the article that he mentions was written March 19, or it was published March 19. And he does say in his presentation that it was -- it was published March 19, this month. So at least we can tell from this that between March 19 and the end of March, if this indeed is Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, he was alive during that period.
KAGAN: All right. Octavia Nasr, thank you for the context.
NASR: Any time.
KAGAN: Appreciate it.
President Bush says the U.S. is making progress in Iraq despite the continuing violence. That was just one of the issues the president addressed in a rare primetime news conference.
Our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux, was there last night. And she joins us this morning.
Suzanne, good morning.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
Well, really an attempt to shift the debate. The president is pivoting from talking about Social Security's problems to some of the solutions.
At this hour, he is before a group of supporters in Falls Church, Virginia, talking about a plan that he is embracing, a plan that he says will protect the lowest-income workers, those workers who perhaps would depend entirely after they retire on their Social Security check. But this plan also as well means that much of the middle class and the upper class would bear much of the burden for making up that shortfall, that their benefits would decrease.
Now, Mr. Bush says that this plan, plus the creation of those private investment accounts, he believes would make up for about 70 percent of the shortfall.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think the country needs to set this goal for future generations that if you have worked all your life and paid into the Social Security system, you will not retire into poverty. And there's a way to make that happen, and that is to have the benefits for low-income workers in a future system grow faster than benefits for those who are better off.
If Congress were to enact that, that would go a long way toward making the system solvent for a younger generation of Americans. I have a duty to put ideas on the table. I'm putting' them on the table. And I expect Republicans and Democrats to do the same kind of thing, and so do the American people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, it was last night that President Bush announced that challenge to both Republicans and Democrats. What is his plan exactly? It's called progressive indexing.
It simply means that if you are a lower-income worker, that your benefits are basically set on wages. If you are an upper-income worker, that your benefits would be set on inflation, that you would get less benefits than those who are in the lower-income bracket.
Those who are middle class, the majority of Americans, it would be a new formula that would be applied as well for benefits using a mix of wages and inflation to determine what your benefits are.
Overall, what does this mean? It means that lower-income workers would be shielded from much of the burden to make up for the shortfall for Social Security, while middle and upper income would basically shoulder much of the burden.
The president also, of course, issuing a challenge to Democrats and Republicans, saying, OK, here's my plan, this will cover 70 percent of the shortfall. What do you have for the other 30 percent? What are your ideas?
Some of the things the White House is considering is raising the retirement age, as well as the payroll cap -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Suzanne Malveaux at the White House. Thank you.
Let's check now on how the president's remarks are playing on Capitol Hill. Congressional correspondent Ed Henry joining me now from Washington with reaction from both sides of the aisle.
Ed, good morning.
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
That's right, there's a brick wall of opposition from Democrats. That's not a shock. They are basically saying that they feel the president made a mistake by once again pushing hard last night for these private accounts.
They say the public's not buying it yet. And they say that they are going to be too costly. And Democrats also taking shots of the fact that they believe the president said last night that he is basically going to use benefit cuts to pay for the transition costs of those private accounts. As for the Republicans, right now House Ways and Means chairman, Bill Thomas, a very powerful player in this debate, that committee will be actually writing the legislation. He just announced at this press conference that is happening right now that on May 12 he will start a series of hearings on Social Security, one a week throughout the summer, to get this bill going.
In terms of actual reaction to the president's news conference last night, Republicans like House Speaker Dennis Hastert, they put out statements last night saying they applaud the president for being courageous, putting this issue on the table, and continuing to fight, despite the fact that there's no clear consensus yet. But people like Hastert are clearly not endorsing the president's plan yet. And that has to do a lot with politics.
They know the president is a lame duck, he doesn't have to face the voters again. But House and Senate Republicans will have to face the voters next year.
They know the polls show the public is not sold on this yet. And that's a point that House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi seized upon yesterday even before the president made his latest sales pitch.
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REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: What I am hoping the president tonight will say about Social Security and his privatization plan is, uncle. This is -- this is really -- you know, 60 days, Sunday is at the 60th anniversary -- 60th day of a 60-city tour. I think it's been a dismal failure.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: The Republican response is of course the president is not going to say, "Uncle." In fact, Republicans on the Hill think the best weapon they have in this fight is the president.
He has proven before that in these tough fights, he will not give up regardless of where the public polls are. And the Republicans also saying this morning Democrats have still not put a plan of their own on the table.
And Republican Senate Finance chairman Chuck Grassley last night -- he's the counterpart to Bill Thomas over in the Senate -- he will be writing the legislation in the Senate. And he said it's time for leaders in both parties to stop talking about the next election and, instead, focus on the next generation.
That's hard to do, though, right now in this politically-charged climate -- Daryn.
KAGAN: OK. For the Ed Henry question of the day, we're going to switch topics here. Give us an update on what's happening with the battle over judicial nominees.
HENRY: Well, right there in a microcosm you can see why the Social Security legislation has not really moved very far so far, why the energy bill is tied up. There's a lot of wrangling, and it has to do in part with the so-called nuclear option.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist yesterday put forth a compromise proposal to try to end this standoff. The nuclear option is basically a Republican idea to overturn Senate rules, change Senate rules to stop filibusters of judicial nominees.
He put forth this proposal. Immediately, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said he believes the proposal is a big, fat, wet kiss to the right. Obviously a direct, blunt assessment from the Democrats.
And it shows that even as each side -- the Democrats earlier this week tried to put forth a compromise that was rejected by the Republicans as well. Both sides trying to compromise on that issue of judicial nominations. But no compromise in sight.
They're rejecting it right away. And they very likely are headed for what everyone up here is calling a nuclear war on judicial nominations. And that's very clear that that's part of the reason why there's a lot of gridlock -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Ed Henry on Capitol Hill. Thank you. Actually, you're in our D.C. bureau today. Wherever you are, you're doing a great job. Thank you, Ed.
Severe weather brewing across the Southeast this morning. Arkansas in the storm's path. Residents getting ready for the worst because they have been there before. Boy, have they ever.
We'll get a live report from Little Rock just ahead.
And more damaging testimony in the Michael Jackson case. This time, though, for the prosecution. The singer's ex-wife once again got on the stand, started handing out surprises.
Plus, he is considered one of the great minds in Major League Baseball. Just how does he do it? And why does he allow unprecedented access to a writer? St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa joins me live right here in the studio.
All that ahead in this hour.
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KAGAN: Memphis, Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Little Rock, you could see an outbreak of severe spring weather this afternoon. Beware.
Our correspondent Chris Lawrence is in Little Rock.
Chris, good morning. CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn.
Now, right now, that storm is sitting just north of Interstate 40. And it's moving our way pretty quickly. And the folks here at the National Weather Service have been tracking it literally minute by minute.
And when they tell people to prepare for dangerous weather, a lot of us think of boarding up windows, or even tying things down. But when you've survived a tornado, when you have literally been lifted out of your own home, like some of the folks here in Arkansas have, it can just be a matter of coming to grips with the idea that, this can happen again.
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LAWRENCE (voice-over): Nobody that lived through them will ever forget those Arkansas tornadoes in 1999.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There's a tornado right out my back door! You can see it! Oh, my god! Oh!
LAWRENCE: Donald Ward was the mayor of Beebe, Arkansas. He survived the night in a bathtub, huddled over his wife and kids.
MAYOR DONALD WARD, BEEBE, ARKANSAS: The shower tub combination tore loose, and literally the tornado drug us for 40 feet into the back yard.
LAWRENCE: And when they climbed out, everything was gone.
CARLA WARD, MAYOR'S WIFE: But thank god, he brought us through. It's only by the miracle of god that we made it.
LAWRENCE (on camera): Six years ago, your wife sounded like she was thankful just to be alive. Do you get scared now?
D. WARD: There's fear. I have to be honest with you.
When I hear severe weather, I become excited, tense. I can close my eyes right now in talking to you, and I can be vividly back in my home. I can still have -- feel debris hitting my face. But then again, I come back and say, hey, god took care of us that night, he'll take care of us again.
LAWRENCE (voice-over): The deadly tornado destroyed dozen of homes, as well as churches and schools. The town had to rebuild from scratch. But these new schools have reinforced everything, including a shelter lined with 10 inches of concrete.
KEITH WILLIAMS, BEEBE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT: After watching it built, I would have no reservations at all being in this building and being safe with a tornado going right over it.
LAWRENCE: But as confident as folks sound, no one here really wants to put that to the test. (END VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE: And when kids aren't in school, that shelter is open to the public and can fit about 1,500 people in side. That's important, because according to Chris Benano (ph) and some of the latest radar that we can take a look at here, the greatest possibility for the tornadoes is going to come later this afternoon, early evening, when the kids are already home from school, probably in the southeastern corner of the state.
But already, we've heard people calling in here all morning, reporting hail about the size of a quarter. A couple times even people saying, "Hey, I've seen hail as big as a golf ball out there already" -- Daryn.
KAGAN: All the more reason that we're glad you're indoors for that live report. Chris Lawrence from Little Rock. Thank you.
Let's get a better look at the weather. Bob Van Dillen giving us a check.
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KAGAN: Frightening situation at an elementary school in Pennsylvania. A student pricks other students with a needle. One of the children is HIV positive. What are the risks? Dr. Sanjay Gupta will explain.
Plus, is it OK to cheat in your marriage? Most Americans say absolutely no way. But what do they say? A preview of "CNN PRESENTS: Infidelity" is ahead.
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KAGAN: Parents at a Philadelphia elementary school are on edge after a prank causes an HIV scare. Authorities say a third-grader brought her mother's diabetic testing needle to school and stuck more than a dozen students.
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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's the same needle that they poked on every one of the 14 kids. And one of the kids that was poked is HIV positive.
MIKE GONZALEZ, PARENT: This is something that is not to be played with. You've got now little kids that are in danger.
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KAGAN: Health officials say the student who tested positive for HIV could not have been affected from being stuck on Wednesday. Other parents, though, are worried their children may have been exposed to the virus.
So, just how worried should those parents in Philadelphia be? Senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta examines the risk of contracting HIV from a needle.
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DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SR. MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: The third- grader actually brought this needle from home. And subsequently, 19 students got poked.
One of the students was revealed to be HIV positive. Unclear whether or not that student actually had the positive test after this poking incidence or was already known to have a positive HIV test.
Regardless, though, statistics definitely very much on these students' side. There has never been a case outside a hospital of someone getting an accidental stick and subsequently contracting HIV.
Even within hospital settings, the number is very, very low. About three in 1,000 likelihood of someone actually having a positive HIV test.
Typically what happens, it goes down something like this: you develop antibodies to the HIV virus, and that's actually what you are testing for. So what happens -- and here's the rub -- is that you have to get tested for several months, end on end, to try and make sure that you don't actually develop any of these antibodies. It is likely these students will have to get tests every month for at least three months to make sure they don't develop the HIV antibodies.
Also, prophylactically, a lot of times medications are simply given. Even though the HIV is not proven to be there, medications are given to try and reduce the likelihood of transmission even further.
The numbers, again, three in a thousand in health care settings. That's when a significant contamination has occurred. A large syringe full of blood, for example.
In this case, we are talking about a very small-borne needle. And then after you give the medications, you reduce the chances by 80 percent. So reducing it to the likelihood of just one in a thousand, perhaps not even that high.
That's what's going to be done for these children now. Obviously time will tell. But again, statistics on their side.
We'll certainly keep you posted as details develop. Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.
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KAGAN: In the Michael Jackson trial, more surprises from the prosecution from the singer's ex-wife. What did she say this time? CNN senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin joins me when CNN LIVE TODAY returns.
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