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Iraqi Lawmakers Reversed Rules On Constitutional Vote; Fears of Bird Flu Coming To U.S.; Tour Boat Tragedy Testing Today; Tropical Storm Tammy Affecting Florida

Aired October 05, 2005 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: All along the Gulf Coast and in the city of New Orleans and elsewhere. I mean it's just a lot to accomplish. And five weeks have passed, as you said.
All right, Rob, thanks. Appreciate it.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You bet.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: We are out of time. And that wraps up AMERICAN MORNING for this morning.

Daryn Kagan's at the CNN Center, going to take you through the next few hours of CNN LIVE TODAY.

Hey, Daryn. Good to see you again.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Soledad, good morning to you. You have a great day in New York City. We'll go ahead and get started.

Let's do that by taking a look at what's happening "Now in the News."

The latest entry in this year's storm season, Tropical Storm Tammy. The 19th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is moving north/northwest along the east coast of Florida. We'll check in with Meteorologist Jacqui Jeras for an update in just a few minutes.

The Bush administration's challenge to Oregon's assisted suicide law goes before the U.S. Supreme Court today. Oregon is the only state that allows doctors to help terminally ill patients end their lives. We'll take an in-depth look at this major case ahead in this hour.

Federal prosecutors in New York have charged a man they call a top drug trafficker. They say he is the leader of a group that smuggled 9,000 pounds of cocaine into the U.S. The Drug Enforcement Administration says Augustine Aro Rodriguez (ph) was arrested for trying to cross into Arizona from Mexico.

The Nobel Prize for Chemistry goes to pair of Americans and a French scientist. Robert Grubbs, Richard Schrock, and Yves Chauvin will share more than $1 million for developing an environmentally friendly process for use in the chemical industry.

Good morning from CNN Center in Atlanta. I'm Daryn Kagan.

We're going to start this hour with Iraq and the next chapter. A future taking shape as we approach next week's constitutional vote. CNN's Aneesh Raman is in Baghdad. There's a last minute reversal by Iraqi lawmakers. Our Bob Franken is at the White House where President Bush is meeting with architects of the military mission in Iraq.

Bob, let's go ahead and start with you. Good morning.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the meeting is just finishing, Daryn, with Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and General David Petraeus, who recently returned as the person in charge of the coalition of transition forces, discussing, among other things, some apprehensions about the progress being made to create an Iraqi security force which everybody describes as the key to turning the country back over to the people of Iraq. It was the subject, as a matter of fact, that with people becoming more and more skeptical in the United States of the Iraq venture, that came up at the president's news conference.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: One of the concerns we have is the capacity of the Iraqis to develop command and control. It's just one thing to have people able to march, it's another thing to have the capacity to send them into battle in an organized way. One of the things that our folks measure is whether or not that is that's taking place. And the answer is, there is progress. There's obviously more work to be done, more units to be stood up, but we've got, as I said, over 30 battalions here in the lead and that's positive progress.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRANKEN: We're going to be hearing more in a moment about the ongoing attempts to create an Iraq constitution at this morning's White House meeting with reporters. Scott McClellan, the president's press spokesman, said that it is an ongoing process that from one end to the other involves constant consultations between the Iraqis and U.S. officials.

Daryn.

KAGAN: Bob Franken at the White House.

Bob, thank you.

Now let's check in with our Aneesh Raman in Baghdad to talk about this change with the election on this referendum just over a week away.

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Daryn, good morning.

A huge political catastrophe averted just hours ago. Iraq's National Assembly voting to reverse a decision they made on Sunday that would have made it virtually impossible for this constitution to get rejected in the vote on October 15th. It was a move seen widely as pure politics by the leading Shia/Kurd coalition. A move that ignited immediate anger among the Sunni minority. They had been threatening to boycott the election. Something they did back in January.

Now the U.N., as well as the U.S., had urged the reversal that we saw today. Everyone is aware, Daryn, that bringing the Sunnis into the political fray is essential to bring stability to Iraq. And that the process, the way this vote takes place, is as critical as the vote itself.

I spoke, though, to a leading Sunni politician earlier today. And despite the fact that the National Assembly reversed the decision, he says politically the damage has been done.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SALIH AL-MUTLAG, IRAQI NATIONAL DIALOGUE COUNCIL: The Iraqis have come to a conclusion, unfortunately, that whether they will say yes or no it does not mean anything. Which this is the main damage which happened.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAMAN: So it's a very short-lived controversy, Daryn, but one that could have real implications. It could affect, in a practical sense, the turnout on October 15th. Bringing Iraqis to the polls is part of the process of bringing this country toward stability. And if Iraqis, especially Sunnis, now see this process as entirely political, something that isn't a process they want to be part of, we could see a drop in the turnout.

That is a critical number. We saw some 58 percent of Iraqis turn out in January. Expectations are that more will turn out. And that Sunnis, even though they want to vote this document down, if they vote, that is a big step forward. So making sure that Sunnis still turn out is now of critical concern.

Daryn.

KAGAN: Aneesh, is there a sense there in Iraq that most Iraqis know what is in this document that they're voting on?

RAMAN: It's a very good point. A recent poll put 50 percent of Iraqis as unaware of what this document even says. Distribution of the constitution really only getting under way this week. Referenda often get rejected by nature because the public doesn't feel educated. So that is a huge issue.

But this is a vote not just on the constitution, but on the political process. If this gets rejected, this entire political process starts over. A new national assembly is voted in and that would benefit the Sunnis who would get better representation, as well as secular politicians. So this is as vote as much about the constitution as it is about the political process. Daryn.

KAGAN: Aneesh Raman live in Baghdad, thank you for that.

Well, on to the White House once again. President Bush raising eyebrows and maybe a few concerns with comments yesterday on the threat of Avian flu and how the U.S. military could play a role in bottling that. Medical experts say that an outbreak could kill millions. Brian Todd has that story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): A lethal strain that's killed roughly five dozen people in Asia, with no confirmed cure, no fully developed vaccine, has the president openly discussing worst-case scenarios. What if the Avian flu spread to the United States?

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you then enforce a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table.

TODD: President Bush acknowledges some governors don't like the idea. And the head of the American Public Health Association says quarantining one region, or even a community would be, in his words, extraordinarily difficult.

DR. GEORGES BENJAMIN, AMERICAN PUBLIC HEALTH ASSOCIATION: The more likely thing is that the outbreak is going to be in multiple places at one time. And the odds against you being able to get the whole community quarantined and contained in a section that way is probably not going to happen.

TODD: And, says Dr. Georges Benjamin, the U.S. military's medical corps is stretched too thin to be effectively deployed for a quarantine. Dr. Benjamin says the public health system should handle any U.S. outbreak and he supports measures the administration has already taken, bolstering research, stockpiling vaccines that are in development and anti-virals for people who already have Avian flu.

World Health Organization officials say historically, quarantines have worked only to delay pandemics. But they say that delay could be valuable if a deadly strain is on the move. One expert has an ominous projection if Avian flu moves to the U.S.

DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA: We need to figure out, how are we going to handle what could be many hundreds of thousands of dead bodies. That's the kind of planning we need right now and that's what's going to get us through this.

TODD: So far, according to the World Health Organization, human cases of Avian flu are now confined to four countries.: Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. How close is this strain to spreading to the United States? Officials at the W.H.O. and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services say there's no way to know for sure. One official at the Center for Disease Control says it's possible but unlikely.

Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: Meanwhile, health officials in Canada are scrambling to explain a mystery illness there. The viral outbreak has killed 10 people in a Toronto nursing home. Another 40 people are hospitalized. Workers are now racing to contact anyone who visited that facility recently. The unidentified respiratory virus is conjuring dreaded memories of the SARS outbreak two years ago. That killed 44 people in Canada's largest city.

To upstate New York now where investigators will conduct more tests today. They have hopes of trying to figure out what caused a tour boat to capsize on Lake George. Twenty elderly passengers of the Ethan Allen died in that tragedy on Sunday. One test today will involve loading a similar weight onto a sister craft of the Ethan Allen to see if a sudden weight shift on board would cause it to roll over. With more on the story, here is CNN's Alina Cho.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Like so many others, Al Dardis heard about the accident on television.

AL DARDIS, FORMER CAPTAIN, ETHAN ALLEN: I couldn't believe it. I just couldn't believe it.

CHO: Dardis had a reason to care. He was one of the first captains on the Ethan Allen, piloted the tour boat for 15 years.

You're still sick about it?

DARDIS: If that ever happened to me, I'd die. I couldn't take it.

CHO: Dardis said, when he was at the helm back in the '70s and '80s, he always made sure people were seated. He said the boat was harder to handle when it was filled to capacity.

DARDIS: If you have a lot of people on one side, it's just not good. It don't run good.

CHO: He has seen what happens when a boat tries to maneuver around the wake of a larger vessel.

You've seen things flip over?

DARDIS: If they come close to anything and they're anywhere near half throttle, something bad happens.

CHO: Investigators are looking into whether the wake of another boat caused the Ethan Allen to capsize. MAJ. GERALD MEYER, N.Y. STATE POLICE: Well, you can understand how a vessel of that size, things could go wrong.

CHO: New York State Police Major Gerald Meyer said two crew members should have been aboard the Ethan Allen on the day of the accident. But Captain Richard Paris was alone.

MEYER: The crew member would be important in an accident situation because, you know, you might need two people to hand out life preservers.

CHO: The company that owns the Ethan Allen is Shoreline Cruises. The state has sidelined its five other boats.

JAMES QUIRK, PRESIDENT, SHORELINE CRUISES: Our company, Shoreline Cruises, has been in the passenger boat business on Lake George for more than 27 years. And until Sunday, we have had a perfect safety record.

CHO: But as this 911 call makes clear, something did go terribly wrong.

911 OPERATOR: 911 emergency.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, my God. Oh, my God. A boat, a boat, a boat went over just the Ethan Allen, just outside of Green Harbor.

911 OPERATOR: Green Harbor?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It tipped right over.

911 OPERATOR: How many people were in the boat?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, please oh, a lot of people. They're hanging on to the bottom because it went right over. Oh, please hurry.

CHO: Seventy-five-year-old Anna McGunagle said it all happened so fast. She survived the accident. Her husband did too.

ANNA MCGUNAGLE, SURVIVOR: I was content that I wasn't going to make it and he was too. But God had other plans for us.

CHO: Despite the tragedy, Al Dardis says Lake George is still the queen of American lakes and the perfect place to take a vacation.

DARDIS: It was a beautiful day, gorgeous day. Something like that should have never happened.

CHO: The NTSB will be conducting what it calls a stability test. It will take the twin sister boat of the Ethan Allen, put the equivalent of 50 passengers on that boat, move all of the weight to one side of it and then see what happens. The NTSB says it will know a lot more then than it does now.

Alina Cho, CNN, Lake George, New York. (END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: Here we go again. Tropical weather brewing in the Atlantic. What could Tammy mean for the southeastern U.S.? Jacqui Jeras is ahead with more.

Also, CNN covering all the angles as the Gulf Coast recovers from Hurricane Katrina. Today, more residents are seeing their devastated homes for the first time.

And a former president gets a look at the damage, as well.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everyone's like, oh, it's going to be worse. You could go to Iraq. But my experiences so far would indicate that I would rather be deployed back to Iraq than over here personally.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KAGAN: And U.S. soldiers on the front lines, but they're not in Iraq. Many of them say they are fighting a forgotten war.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: Surf's up. Boy, is it ever. We're looking at live pictures of Daytona Beach, Florida. This is the result of Tropical Storm Tammy. The nineteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Just how bad is Tammy and where is this storm headed? Let's check in with our Jacqui Jeras.

Jacqui, good morning.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hey, Daryn.

KAGAN: We're getting close to the bottom of the list, aren't we, T's?

JERAS: Yes, we've got two more names and then we go over to the Greek alphabet. And I don't even know if that's happened before. I'll have to check into the record books. I'm not sure. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Epsilon. Go back to your sorority days, Daryn.

KAGAN: How far can we go?

JERAS: I think that's as far as I can go.

KAGAN: For the record, I was not in a sorority.

JERAS: Oh, all right, Daryn, sorry.

KAGAN: Carry on.

JERAS: OK. Carry on. Tammy, a tropical storm. It's probably going to stay a tropical storm throughout the day today, though it is gaining a little bit of strength and a little bit of momentum. The biggest problem that we're going to have with Tammy is just going to be some of the very heavy rainfall and some of the rough surf that we saw there from Daytona Beach. Winds 15 miles per hour in Daytona.

And Daytona could get landfall and landfall is going to be real tricky on this one, I'll tell you, because it's kind of scooting along the coastline. It's moving west/northwest right now, so it's going to be kind of moving parallel here. Could be getting close to Daytona. Could get a little bit closer up towards Jacksonville.

So those will all be areas that we're going to be affected by it. But the winds not that big of a deal, 40 mile per hour right now. Enough to throw your garbage cans down a little bit, maybe break some branches off. This is going to get a little bit stronger, throughout, we think throughout the day.

But the big problem will be that rain. We're talking about maybe anywhere between three and six inches. Widespread rainfall. Heavier amounts up to six to 10 in just some isolated locations. There you can see that rain pulling into Jacksonville, into St. Augustine. Of course, high threat of rip currents throughout the day, too.

We've got tropical storm warnings in effect from the South Santee River, South Carolina, extending all the way down to Cocoa Beach. That means tropical storm conditions are expected.

The storm is really pretty wide in berth affecting everybody from Florida through the Carolinas. Moving on a west/northwesterly track and it's going to be moving into Georgia, we think, by tomorrow, late tomorrow. It will become a tropical depression by then.

So this is going to be short lived but, unfortunately, we're going to be seeing a lot of rain across the southeast. Kind of spoils the end of your week if you have any outdoor plans. But this area really could use some of the rainfall.

We've also got some strong weather to talk about across the nation's midsection. Big cold front coming through here. We've got summer on the east side, we've got winter on the west side. Some very significant snow amounts across the Dakotas and in parts of Montana. And a slight risk of severe thunderstorms later on this afternoon. We'll talk more about that big storm and show you some temperatures that could shock you.

Daryn, that's coming up in just a little bit.

KAGAN: Were you in a sorority?

JERAS: I was.

KAGAN: I wasn't. Come on.

JERAS: OK. Oh, you want me to tell you which one? KAGAN: Yes.

JERAS: Alpha B. Delta.

KAGAN: Ah, they just didn't have them on campus where I went to school when I was there.

Anyhow, topic for another day. Was just wondering. Thank you, Jacqui.

JERAS: OK.

KAGAN: Well, today could be a painful homecoming for many New Orleans residents coming back to a city that is in desperate situations. It doesn't look like this anymore. Most of the water is gone and the mayor expects nearly every neighborhood, like the Lakeview Community, to be dry enough for people to come in and find out what's left. But a lot of the low-lying ninth ward will remain closed.

One last flight over the ravaged Gulf Coast for Lieutenant General Russel Honore today. The commander of the military's hurricane relief effort is moving on but says it will take years to restore the coastline. Our Randi Kaye is traveling today with the general. And we'll have the story with Randi Kaye a little bit later.

Meanwhile, former President Bill Clinton's tour of the Gulf Coast takes him to Metairie, Louisiana, today and then is on to Mississippi and Alabama. The former president was in New Orleans yesterday where he visited with people still living in shelters. He also viewed flood damage in the hard-hit ninth ward. Mr. Clinton makes a chance to talk with our Kelly Wallace about the experience.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We drove with you through the lower ninth ward. As someone who loves this city, what was that like?

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, it was very emotional because, you know, this was the first city I ever visited. My first my families, I guess, only out of state vacation my family ever took when I was a boy was here and the Gulfport and Biloxi, ironically. We went to New Orleans Gulfport and Biloxi when I was 15. So I've loved this place all my life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KAGAN: The fund-raising initiative headed by Mr. Clinton and former President Bush has raised about $100 million to help the hurricane victims.

Well, you just heard from President Clinton commenting on seeing New Orleans' ninth ward. Ahead on CNN LIVE TODAY, a closer look at that area of the city and the debate surrounding it. Should it be rebuilt? We'll look at both sides of that issue. Also, Gerri Willis is talking Medicare in today's "Top Five Tips." A new drug benefit is about to kick in and she's going to explain in her best simplified way how it works, coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: Markets have been open. We're getting close to an hour and there's not a lot of good news on Wall Street. The major gauges are dipping in the early going and higher energy prices, profit warnings, you name it and you can see it reflected in the Dow. The Dow down 38 points. The Nasdaq in positive territory as well. It is down 17 points.

This news is for Americans over 65, or if you have a loved one in that age range. They can expect to find a new promotional blitz arriving in their mailbox or on television. Insurance companies are recruiting seniors for the new Medicare prescription drug benefit. But according to a new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll, most seniors won't enroll simply because they don't understand the program. That's why Gerri Willis is here for you to walk us through some of the highlights.

Gerri, good morning.

GERRI WILLIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Daryn, good to see you.

Tip number one, the program is not for everyone. If you have employer-sponsored coverage, you probably don't want to take it. You should know the details, too. The premiums can be as high as $100 per month. The average is about $32 to $37. So you need to consider the kinds of drugs you're taking on a regular basis, how much that is each month, to weigh whether you want to sign up or not.

KAGAN: One of the reasons that it's so confusing is because there's so many choices.

WILLIS: Oh, my goodness, Daryn, 20 choices on average in each state. The website you want to go to check out the plans in your area cms.hhs.gov. Devil's in the details, Daryn. You don't just want to look at the premiums, also check out the co-pays which can vary a lot, as well as whether your pharmacy is actually going to accept this plan or not.

KAGAN: So a lot's going to really depend also on what kind of drugs you take?

WILLIS: That's right. And, you know, you don't just want to just check and see whether the plan that you're interested in makes available the drug that you want, but also the formulation that you use. Because if you remember, a lot of people out there, they're taking a drug, it can be offered as pills, it can be offered as a liquid, as a topical application, you name it. There are lots of formulations. Make sure the one you use is on the plan you choose at a very good price.

KAGAN: And there's a window for signing up?

WILLIS: Absolutely. And not only is there a window, you want to do it by May 15, 2006. But if you miss the window, the prices start going up. Those premiums start going up 1 percent each month and every month. So it pays, if you're the kind of person who really needs this plan, to sign up early.

KAGAN: Of course, any kind of business plan involving seniors is going to attract scam artists.

WILLIS: You bet. I got to tell you, I'm just surprised and shocked at the way people want to take advantage of each other out there. It's illegal to market these plans door-to-door. So if somebody comes to your front door and wants to say charge you a fee to sign up, forget about it. They are a scam artist. You want to make sure that you sign up with one that's legitimate. Go to 1-800- Medicare, dial that phone number. You can find out if the plan you're being offered is legitimate.

Daryn.

KAGAN: Gerri Willis, thank you for the tips. Important.

WILLIS: You're welcome.

KAGAN: The battle over assisted suicide is front and center at the Supreme Court this morning. At issue, one state's law that allows doctors to help patients die. Former U.S. Attorney Kendall Coffey (ph) joins me to talk about that.

Also, "New York Times" reporter Judith Miller on why she was willing to go to jail to protect a source.

And it has happened again. Teen actress Lindsay Lohan involved in a car accident. What was she running from? When CNN LIVE TODAY returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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