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CNN Live Today

Iraqis Prepare for Vote on Constitution; Northeast Floods

Aired October 14, 2005 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's take a look at what's happening "Now in the News."
Deep anxiety across the flooded Northeast. More rain upstream threatens to compound the misery of areas already under water. A live report from the water's edge is just ahead.

In southern Russia, authorities today are assessing the carnage of yesterday's bloody assault in the city of Nalchik. Russian officials say 91 militants were killed out of 150 or so who launched the series of attacks. Twenty-four law enforcement personnel were also killed, as well as at least 14 civilians.

To Washington, D.C. Senior Bush adviser Karl Rove is back before a federal grand jury. He arrived at the courthouse about three hours ago. It's Rove's fourth trip to the grand jury room. That panel wants to know who leaked the name of a CIA operative to reporters.

A live report from Washington, D.C., with our Bob Franken is coming up as we await Karl Rove to come out of the courthouse.

And how does an extra $40 a month sound? That's what the average Social Security recipient will see in their checks beginning next year. It's a 4.1 percent increase. It is the biggest bump in Social Security pay in a decade.

Let's get the hour started.

Just 12 hours from now, at midnight Eastern Time, Iraqis begin voting on a new draft constitution. It's a referendum that could be a turning point in Iraq's history.

For a sense of what Iraqis expect tomorrow to bring, let's go to CNN's Aneesh Raman, who is live in Baghdad -- Aneesh.

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Daryn, good afternoon.

The hope is always around these pivotal dates that it will bring an end to the violence, further stability to this country. That was the hope in January, when millions of Iraqis went to the polls. The violence of course did not let up.

But this is a pivotal moment for the political process as well. Some 15.5 million Iraqis are registered to vote. All expectations are that turnout will be high.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on those Sunni provinces to see how many Sunnis turn out to vote and whether or not they have the numbers to reject this constitution. Bringing the Sunnis into the political fray is of course seen as essential to bringing stability to Iraq. Sunnis make up a majority of the country's domestic insurgency. So if Sunnis do come out in big numbers, that will undoubtedly be seen as a success for this process.

But again, the stakes are high. If this constitution is voted down, this entire political process starts again, another national assembly is voted in, and they would draft another draft constitution. If it succeeds, though, in mid-December we will see general elections for a permanent five-year government. Many see that as key not just for stability, but also for reducing the number of U.S. troops and letting them start coming home -- Daryn.

KAGAN: Aneesh, how long is it expected to take to count the vote and get results?

RAMAN: Well, we are hearing it will take three to five days for unofficial results, and then up to 10 days for those results to be certified. But we could get early indications tomorrow itself as to not just turnout, but also whether or not this constitution will pass.

All expectations are that it will pass, but by a slim margin. So no one will likely call this too early. Everyone will wait for Iraq's election commission to come out with official numbers -- Daryn.

KAGAN: Aneesh Raman, live from Baghdad.

Now on to Washington D.C., where the Bush administration has a lot invested in the success of the Iraqi vote, partly because it could directly impact how soon U.S. forces can return home.

CNN's Kathleen Koch joins us from the White House with the view from there.

Kathleen, hello.

KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Daryn.

And yes, the president is keeping a watchful eye on the pre- election preparations in Iraq. But he did take time out this morning to go to the Pakistani embassy nearby here in Washington to sign a book of condolences, expressing the United States' condolences for those killed in the massive earthquake this weekend.

The president has been facing obviously numerous challenges, both at home and abroad in recent months. Iraq foremost among them.

President Bush's approval ratings right now have slipped below 40 percent, the lowest in his presidency. Recent polls have found nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of Iraq.

So it's critical that the vote on Iraq's new constitution come off successfully this weekend. The White House has been making a full court press in recent weeks, really trying to turn things around, turn the negative perceptions into positive perceptions.

And the president focusing on Iraq in his radio address, is visiting with the troops, as has Vice President Cheney. Though, officials here, senior administration officials, do say, looking at the events in Iraq over the last 48 hours, they find them to be "interesting and positive."

As Aneesh mentioned, there are large numbers of Sunnis now who have registered. There are more troops, there are more voting booths in these Sunni regions. And the White House does read that as a sign that perhaps this time all of the Sunnis will not boycott the election, and that they will instead have what this one official called a "high level of participation."

And indeed, the White House does believe that if more Sunnis get invested and get involved in the election process, that they will have much less tolerance for and be less supportive of the violence. And though there has been an uptick in violence over just the last 24 hours, in particular against one of Iraq's main Sunni Arab parties which was advising voters to vote for the constitution, Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, condemned those attacks, saying, "Democracy is taking root. And there's nothing the terrorists can do to stop the right and the desire of the Iraqi people to live in freedom."

And of course, Daryn, all of this is very critical in the U.S. finally bringing home 140,000 U.S. troops still in the country.

Back to you.

KAGAN: Kathleen Koch, live at the White House. Thank you.

A note of interest here. Our former Baghdad bureau chief, Jane Arraf, is now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We'll get her perspective on Iraq's constitutional referendum in just a few minutes.

First, though, we want to take you to the waterlogged Northeast. Folks in northern New Jersey have their fingers crossed today that the flooding is not going to get any worse.

Our Chris Huntington is watching the water levels in Lincoln Park, New Jersey.

Chris, hello.

CHRIS HUNTINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Daryn, good afternoon to you.

It is raining heavily again here. This was frankly not in the forecast. And it is not a welcome development for obvious reasons. The big concern here is not only the rain that falls in the immediate area, but what falls north and uphill from here, which will inevitably wash down here.

What you see behind me looks like a river, and in fact it is just that. But it covers Midwood Road (ph), which was the way to this neighborhood here, where just yesterday locals rescue teams had their hands full.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HUNTINGTON (voice over): A search and rescue team from the Lincoln Park, New Jersey, Fire Department brought 19-year-old Kelly Aldridge (ph) out of her home which is surrounded by nearly six feet of water. Her mother, Suzanne Ritterbucsh, anxiously waited as the rescue crew made their way through her neighborhood, flooded by the overflowing Pompton River.

Kelly had been trying to gather her family's most valued possessions, particularly photographs of her deceased stepfather. She couldn't find them.

SUZANNE RITTERBUSCH, FLOOD EVACUEE: No pictures?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, the pictures are on top of the shelf in the room. Mommy, I couldn't get it.

RITTERBUSCH: It's OK. It's OK. It's OK.

HUNTINGTON: Suzanne and her three daughters have been through this before. This section of New Jersey floods often. This is the third time they've had to evacuate this year. Suzanne is angry that the warning from authorities this time did not come until 10:00 Thursday morning, and lacked urgency, even after several days of flooding.

RITTERBUSCH: They didn't say get out. They just said there was minor flooding in the area.

HUNTINGTON (on camera): How would you characterize this flooding that you've just been evacuated from?

RITTERBUSCH: It's major. This is major.

HUNTINGTON (voice over): The Lincoln Park Fire Department said they evacuated at least 15 people from here. After helping Suzanne and her daughters, they pulled out. Moments later, Suzanne's landlord showed up with a boat he just bought for one last-ditch salvage effort.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm going to hand this to you.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You got it?

HUNTINGTON: Computers, one from a neighbor's House, as well as Suzanne's, containing files and a client list from a business that she only just started. Suzanne praised the rescue workers who helped them, but not those who ran emergency operations during the flooding earlier in the week.

RITTERBUSCH: I pushed two cars up to higher ground the other day and watched all the officials stand there and watch me and my two children waist deep in water push cars up. If the rescue workers of Katrina treated those people that way, I can understand their sense of hopelessness, because this was no fun and there was no compassion.

HUNTINGTON: Suzanne knows all too well the perils of living in a flood zone. And she has wanted to move for a year. But with home prices in this area out of her reach, she and her daughters are just renting a house that they can't even call home.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HUNTINGTON: Now, for now, Suzanne and her daughters are waiting out this situation in a motel. She came back here this morning to get a look down the street at her house. And she was emphatic. She's decided that's it, she's moving out of this area for good.

Right now, with this additional rainfall, the waters that had been receding have stabilized. And the point there is that, Daryn, they could rise again.

The police come by here periodically. They've got a measuring stick just around the corner here. They are sanguine for the moment that things are holding level. But unless this rain passes through here quickly, the situation could change -- Daryn.

KAGAN: Yes, you can take one look behind you and see why somebody would want to get out permanently.

Chris Huntington, thank you.

Let's see what the forecast does say.

(WEATHER REPORT)

KAGAN: Once again, a reminder. We're standing by and watching pictures from Washington, D.C. Senior White House aide Karl Rove before a grand jury for the fourth time looking into the CIA leak case.

Our Bob Franken is there in Washington, D.C. He will bring us the latest if we see any signs of Mr. Rove.

Also, we're gauging the political future of Iraq. Up next, we'll take a closer look at the ongoing democratic process in that war-torn nation and what it means for Americans.

Also, he's the president's right-hand man and he's testifying again this morning before a federal grand jury. Once again, Karl Rove, as I said, his latest appearance and what it could mean for his future with the White House.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: Nearly all Americans have a direct stake in what happens tomorrow in Iraq. With more than 130,000 U.S. forces in Iraq, whether they come home sooner or later hinges on Iraq achieving a series of democratic milestones. The first was this balloting in January for the new national assembly. Tomorrow's referendum on a draft constitution is the next crucial step.

Jane Arraf was CNN's eyes and ears in Iraq for a long time. You know her best for her countless battlefield reports that she filed from all across Iraq.

Our former Baghdad bureau chief is now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Jane joins me now from New York with some historical context in tomorrow's vote.

Jane, hello. Good to see you.

JANE ARRAF, FELLO, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: Daryn, it's good to see you. How are you?

KAGAN: On this side of the pond, in the states. No helmet or flack jacket on.

What are you looking for in tomorrow's election?

ARRAF: Well, one thing that everyone's looking for is how much violence will there be? And obviously everyone's trying to keep it to a minimum.

The other thing is, how many people do go out and vote? And what we saw last time was tremendous shows of courage with Iraqis taking that risk to go and literally risk their lives in many places and vote.

Now, the less important thing I think is what happens. Although, it's expected that the constitution will pass. But the fact the people are going to go out and actually take that step, take that risk is really quite phenomenal.

KAGAN: Especially for a draft constitution that, no matter how it goes because of a deal that was struck in the last week, they are going to kind of start over in the next few months. If they lose, they start over.

ARRAF: Absolutely.

KAGAN: And if they pass, they came up with this deal with one Sunni group saying, well, just say yes now, and about four months from now we'll start over.

ARRAF: You're absolutely right. I don't think anyone expects that this is going to solve a lot of problems. And this is a very high-level game being played with very high political stakes.

I think for ordinary Iraqis, they are not that focused on the outcome so much. They are more concerned with security, they're more concerned with jobs. But it is a chance to go out and demonstrate for those who feel strongly about it that this is their country, that they do have a stake in the future.

KAGAN: And let's talk about the group of Sunnis that feel left out of the political process. And yet, have chosen in many parts of this process to sit out.

ARRAF: There are an awful lot of those. Not just Sunnis. I think there actually will be quite a lot of apathy in many parts of the country, because this process isn't widely understood. The constitution isn't widely understood, and the Sunnis are not a cohesive bloc.

They also don't have the same unified leadership that the Shias and the Kurds do. So yes, that is the worrying part, what's going to happen in those places with a Sunni majority, the places that tend to be the most volatile places in Iraq?

KAGAN: And for the so many Americans that are looking for the troops to come home as early as possible, what can they look for in this election?

ARRAF: Gosh, Daryn, that is such a tough one. It is an incredible deployment, an incredible thing that American troops are being asked to do out there.

I don't think there's a real feeling that the outcome of this constitution is going to change whether they can come home quickly or not. It's going to take that political effort, and it's also going to take a lot of work to pin down the security so that Iraqi security forces can replace them. And although there's a temptation to say, that's great, they passed the constitution, that does not automatically mean that those troops will be in a position to come home anytime soon.

KAGAN: And then finally, the balancing act here. Of course as you were mentioning, the U.S. troops have to be part of the protection and the security for tomorrow. But they can't be seen too close, otherwise it looks like an American-sponsored election, and then it lacks credibility.

ARRAF: Absolutely. It's a really interesting dilemma.

In places where I've covered elections, the last one, American troops are the only people who are there to actually do things. Not just to ensure security, but to do a lot of the organizing. But they can't be seen to be doing that, because it would send across completely the wrong perception. But let's not underestimate the role that the American military actually still has in Iraq, even if Iraqis and others don't want to talk about it.

KAGAN: Jane Arraf. Good to have you here in the states.

ARRAF: Thanks so much, Daryn. It's great to be here.

KAGAN: Stop by any time. Thank you, Jane.

ARRAF: Thanks. KAGAN: Well, the next one is a question that some analysts at the Pentagon spend a lot of their time trying to answer, who are the insurgents in Iraq? No one, maybe not even the insurgents themselves, has the complete picture. But this much seems clear...

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Pentagon officials say the insurgency in Iraq is made up of at least three distinct groups: Sunni, Ba'athists and Islamic extremists. The largest faction is probably the loosely-knit Sunni resistance. They fight against what they call the increasing influence of the Shiites in the nation's new government. They believe leaders of the Shiite majority have ties to Iran.

Ba'athists are believed to make up the second-largest faction within the insurgency. Saddam Hussein is a Ba'athist.

They are mostly thought to be former members of Saddam's special security forces who lost their jobs when Saddam's government was dissolved. Many of them have military training and a lot of time on their hands.

The third group gives analysts the greatest cause for concern. They are Islamic extremists who, for the most part, have come from outside of Iraq. Many of them have ties to al Qaeda.

Their fight is against what they call the U.S. invasion into the Muslim world. They want to undermine the efforts to stabilize Iraq. Pentagon officials estimate this group only makes up about 10 percent of the insurgency, but is likely responsible for some of the largest and deadliest attacks.

While the first two groups could possibly be satisfied by a political solution in Iraq, analysts believe this third most radical faction of the insurgents has no intention of slowing its attacks anytime soon.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: There I am. Let me try that again. Be sure to tune in this Sunday for "CNN PRESENTS: On the Iraq War," 7:00 p.m. Eastern. "Progress Report," too. That's followed at 8:00 p.m. by -- 8:00 p.m. Eastern by "Voices on the Home Front."

We are watching a situation in Miami-Dade County in south Florida. It's a medical emergency at W. R. Thomas Middle School. Apparently the cleaning staff was using some type of cleaning solution, and that got into the air ducts.

One student started complaining of breathing problems, and then many more students started complaining as well. According to Miami- Dade fire rescue, there's been about 20 to 25 students who had to be treated for exposure to those chemicals.

So, once again, this is an evacuation situation at W. R. Thomas Middle School in Miami-Dade County. More on that ahead.

It has been six weeks since Katrina, and still looking for a place to call home. Just ahead, we are going to check out the incredible number of evacuees stuck in relief shelters.

And she talked the talk, but did she walk the walk? Dr. Sanjay Gupta checks up on a woman with a very aggressive new year's resolution.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: So please, please, listen to this next story. It's a new poll on public manners. And it confirms what you already know, your fellow Americans are growing more rude.

And you can blame cell phones. The Associated Press poll says that that's a sort of a lot of boorish behavior. Most of you, 85 percent, say that you encounter inconsiderate cell phone users at least occasionally. And it's always the other guy who's annoying.

More than 90 percent of you say you aren't that way when you are using your cell phone in public. And public cursing is another irritant. More than 80 percent of you say other people use rude and offensive language within earshot, at least on occasion.

But only about a third of you fess up to swearing in public. Most of you insist you don't.

Of course, Allan Chernoff working on Wall Street, working in New York City, would never, ever encounter any rude people.

Would you, Allan?

ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN SR. CORRESPONDENT: Not at all. And certainly not behind me on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

KAGAN: No. It's all politeness and gentleness, all lovely behavior.

CHERNOFF: This is known as the largest tea party in New York City.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

KAGAN: Commemorating an historic march and movement on Washington ahead. Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan reflects on the significance of the Million Man March 10 years later.

First, though, we're live from D.C., where presidential adviser Karl Rove is making his fourth appearance before a federal grand jury. The latest after a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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